Matt Thompson ranks all 93 hitters participating in the AFL.
Who's Hot and Who's Not? Digging Into Initial Data for 2024 First Round Hitters, Part 3
With the MiLB season in the books, we’re concluding our look at initial data from 2024 first rounds bats. While prospects are at the end of what is likely their most grueling season of baseball to date, their first handful of games give us an idea of what kind of hitters these prospects may be as professionals.
All of these reports and write ups continue to draw on relatively small sample sizes, many of them for prospects playing by far their most grueling year of baseball to date, so temper any significant conclusions drawn.
Kaelen Culpepper, 21st Overall, Twins, A+
Slash Line: .242/.330/.394 (.724)
13.4 K%, 9.8 BB%
82.1% Contact%
0% InZoneWhiff% (A only)
33% Chase% (A only)
102.6 mph 90thExitVel (A only)
34.3% Hit95+% (A only)
.312 xWOBA
While Culpepper’s end-of-season slash line is middling, he got off to a scorching start to his professional career. After making swing changes that led to a big college postseason (punctuated by hitting for the cycle and nuking a three-run home run off Hagen Smith), Culpepper made short work of Low A Fort Myers. Culpepper hit the ball hard with consistency and moved up quickly to Cedar Rapids after not swinging and missing in the zone once in the FSL. He wore down significantly at the end of the season, despite his defense at shortstop receiving glowing reviews from Twins personnel. Despite a high chase rate, encouragement can be found in Culpepper’s bat-to-ball skills during a strong pro debut. He’ll start at A+ 2025.
Vance Honeycutt, 23rd Overall, Orioles, A+
Slash Line: .176/.250/.196 (.446)
42.9 K%, 7.1 BB%
57.3% Contact%
.211 xWOBA
Honeycutt was the catalyst behind some incredible adrenaline producing moments in the 2024 college baseball postseason. Entering the draft, his hit tool was the biggest question weighing down his offensive profile. He’s done little to diminish them in a brief debut at A and A+, striking out 42.9% of the time and sporting a contact rate that starts with a five. Honeycutt’s incredible defense and athleticism will buoy his value, but he’ll need to make strides offensively in 2025.
Dante Nori, 27th Overall, Phillies, A
Slash Line: .240/.424/.280 (.704)
21.2 K%, 22 BB%
73.6% Contact%
22.5% Chase%
94.5 mph 90thExitVel
5.6% Hit95+%
.324 xWOBA
Nori, the son of the Minnesota Timberwolves Assistant Coach Micah Nori, was one of the few prep bats to get meaningful playing time after the 2024 draft, starting his pro career in A ball. Nori’s robust approach jumps out from his debut, racking up an impressive .424 OBP in no small part due to a fantastic 22% walk rate. There are also solid bat-to-ball skills, and Nori doesn’t chase too much, either. If you want to raise an orange flag, it’s how little he impacted the ball. Just 5.6% of Nori’s batted ball events were hit 95 mph or greater (the average for the level is 34.3%). Still, there’s a solid platform to build for 2025 and beyond.
Walker Janek, 28th Overall, Astros, A+
Slash Line: .175/.214/.289 (.502)
29.1 K%, 3.1 BB%
66.7% Contact%
.218 xWOBA
Janek steadily rose throughout the pre-draft process and was dubbed the best defensive catcher in the class, with solid hit and power tools to boot. The Astros threw him straight into A+, and it’s been a slow start in a 25 game debut. What has been notable is how much Janek has struggled against right-handed pitching. He’s sported just a .440 OPS against righties versus a healthy .896 versus lefties, something to keep an eye on in 2025.
Malcolm Moore, 30th Overall, Rangers, A
Slash Line: .209/.298/.374 (.672)
27.9 K%, 7.7 BB%
70.3% Contact%
.296 xWOBA
There’s not much to note about Moore’s pro debut. It’s all just sort of fine. Nothing spectacular, nothing too alarming either. Much was made of Moore’s poor batted-ball luck in his final season at Stanford before turning pro. We’ll need a more significant sample of playing time to mine some of the trends for Moore as a prospect.
Who's Hot and Who's Not? Digging into Initial Data for 2024 First Round Hitters. Part 2
Who's Hot and Who's Not? Digging into Initial Data for 2024 First Round Hitters
It’s hard to believe, but we’re two months out from the 2024 MLB Draft. The class was bouyed by a strong college hitting demographic, with many picks having made their debuts, giving us a glimpse into the type of hitters they may be as professionals, their assets, and limitations. In the next few weeks at Prospects Live, we’ll be checking in on some of the data tied to first round bats. All of these reports and write ups draw on relatively small sample sizes, many of them for prospects playing by far their most grueling year of baseball to date, so temper any significant conclusions drawn.
NOTE: All data for prospects was pulled prior to games on 09.05.24
Travis Bazzana, 1st Overall, Guardians, A+
Slash Line: .231/.364/.407 (.770)
25.5 K%, 13.6 BB%
78.5% Contact%
.343 xWOBA
.170/.276/.280 (.556) versus LHP
The Guardians were the biggest beneficiary of the draft lottery this cycle, moving up to number one to pick Travis Bazzana, fresh off an outstanding college season with Oregon State. After quickly assigning him to A+ Lake County, Bazzana is off to a solid, if unspectacular, start. Bazzana’s disciplined approach is on display. He’s seeing a whopping 4.36 P/PA (that’s near top of the scale for A ball), and walking at a healthy 13.6% clip. The bat-to-ball skills have shown up, too, as Bazzana is running a 78.5% Contact% through 25 games. Bazzana hasn’t clicked into high gear yet, and he’s been susceptible to left-handed pitching, managing just a .556 OPS against southpaws.
Charlie Condon, 3rd Overall, Rockies, A+
Slash Line: .184/.253/.276 (.528)
31.6 K%, 3.2 BB%
63.9% Contact%
.239 xWOBA
The Rockies assigned Charlie Condon to A+ Spokane after giving him a record-tying bonus, selecting him third overall. It’s been an extremely slow start for the prospect coming off a historic season at Georgia. Condon has shown some bat-to-ball concerns in his first 22 games, managing a 63.9 Contact% (~7% below average for the level). The approach has been rough, too, with a 10.00 K/BB thus far. It’s still very early for Condon as a professional, but it’s been a slow start.
Nick Kurtz, 5th Overall, Athletics, AA
Slash Line: .368/.520/.763 (1.283)
20 K%, 24 BB%
77.5% Contact%
.526 xWOBA
It’s extremely early for Kurtz, who the Athletics signed to an underslot deal to sign at number five overall. He’s played just 12 professional games but laid waste to Low A Stockton. Kurtz managed a 1.531 OPS in his first seven games and slugged four home runs and three doubles. The Athletics moved him to AA, where he’s off to a solid start (.785 OPS in five games). Kurtz displays patience and selectivity at the plate, seeing 4.24 P/PA and swinging just 37.7% of the time. While he’s shown some vulnerability striking out at a high clip against left-handed pitching, crucially, he’s maintaining his excellent approach against them, keeping a consistent platoon-neutral on base percentage. Kurtz is off to one of the best starts of any first-round hitter.
Jac Caglianone, 6th Overall, Royals, A+
Slash Line: .250/.318/.420 (.738)
21.8 K%, 6.4 BB%
74.1% Contact%
56.3% Swing%
.317 xWOBA
Caglianone was one of the most intriguing bats in the first round. Significant improvements in his strikeout rate and out of zone contact rate in his final year at Florida were offset by extreme chase rates, all coupled with monster raw power. How would this translate to professional baseball? Solidly, thus far. Caglianone is an aggressive hitter, with a swing rate close to 10% above MLB average. His improved bat-to-ball skills have carried over into professional baseball. He’s producing at a solid rate for the level despite running an 81.8% ground ball rate against left-handed pitchers.
JJ Wetherholt, 7th Overall, Cardinals, A
Slash Line: .235/.365/.306 (.671)
10.6 K%, 14.4 BB%
80.7% Contact%
13.6% Chase%
.340 xWOBA
104.1 mph 90thExitVel
53.3% Hit95+%
In the conversation for the number one overall pick coming into the 2024 cycle, Wetherholt missed significant time due to soft tissue injuries at West Virginia, eventually being selected at number seven overall by the Cardinals. While Wetherholt’s slash line is unspectacular, I’d argue that some of his under the hood numbers should have Cardinals fans encouraged. The bat to ball skills are as advertised, as Wetherholt is maintaining a Contact% ~10% above average for the level. He doesn’t chase much, and is walking more than he is striking out through his first 25 games as a professional. Wetherholt is crushing his batted balls, with 53.3% hit 95 mph or harder. That’s third best in A ball among prospects who have played at least 20 games. He’s been a victim of some bad batted ball luck thus far.
Christian Moore, 8th Overall, Angels, AA
Slash Line: .330/.381/.567 (.948)
26.7 K%, 7.6 BB%
65.2% Contact%
.403 xWOBA
The Angels continued their predictable tendency of drafting prospects they believe can make short work of the minor leagues and make an immediate impact with the big league roster. This year it was Tennessee slugger Christian Moore, who they signed underslot at 8th overall. Moore passed the test of stepping into the batter's box at A ball before being moved up to AA, where he went on an immediate heater. After slugging five home runs in his first six games for Rocket City, he was sidelined by a meniscus injury. Moore was maximizing his batted ball events before his injury (high line drive and pull percentages). Long term, the potential obstacles may be his bat to ball skills against higher caliber pitching, as he was managing a 65.2% Contact% prior to his injury. Undeniably though, Moore was off to the hot start the Angels hoped for. There’s no current timeline for his return to on-field action.
One Underrated Prospect from Every National League Organization
There are just a handful of weeks remaining in the 2024 minor league season. Every team has added draft picks and potentially even trade deadline acquisitions to their system. Every organization has the “usual suspects” in the farm system that fans of the team have come to know. They follow these players because they’re covered in detail by the media and fans alike. Beyond those top prospects, however, is often where next year’s top prospects tend to start out. Take 2023 for example, when Royals prospects Austin Charles and Javier Vaz were relatively unknown prospects. A year later, each is a consensus top prospect in that system.
The fun in minor league baseball isn’t just following the top names that everyone else tells you to keep tabs on. More fun comes from finding those diamonds in the rough players. Not every prospect is going to be an ace or MVP, but there are plenty of Whit Merrifield-esque prospects out there who can come from nowhere to really shine in the Major Leagues. The Royals fan in me will stop throwing in references to Kansas City now, but here’s a look at one underrated prospect from every organization in the National League.
National League East
Philadelphia Phillies - LHP Mavis Graves
Graves was a sixth-round selection by Philadelphia back in 2022. He was a projectable lefty at the time but struggled to a 7.68 ERA in his Complex League sample last season. Those fortunes turned around (and then some) in 2024, and Graves looks like one of the best young pitching prospects in the organization. Much of that comes behind elite strikeout numbers. Graves has 18 appearances under his belt this season — 16 starts — with a 31.8% strikeout rate. He’s limited the walks well enough, en route to a 22.0% K-BB%. The arsenal is outstanding, featuring a five-pitch mix. Graves throws a four-seamer, cutter, slider, changeup, and sinker. He’s still just 20 years old but spins the ball extremely well, sitting in the low 90s for velocity. That velocity should trend upward some, and once it does, his elite whiff rate will only get that much better. He offers frontline starter upside, with a more likely mid-rotation projection.
Atlanta Braves - RHP Patrick Halligan
A 13th-round pick by the Royals in 2021, it’s taken Halligan some time to get going as a professional. He was a JuCo product at the time and struggled until Kansas City released him in March 2023. Since joining the Braves system, it’s been much different for Halligan. In seven appearances for Double-A Rome in 2023, Halligan posted a 31.4% strikeout rate. That jumped to 34.7% in 33 relief appearances this season. Not only that, but Halligan limits walks well also. His K-BB% finished at 26.3% by the time he was promoted to Triple-A this summer. He throws with a high release point, leaning heavily on movement and deception instead of velocity. Halligan’s four-seamer averages just 92 mph. He pairs it with two potentially above-average pitches, in a slider and a splitter. Halligan has posted a 50.0% Whiff% with the splitter since moving up to Triple-A but will need to find ways to miss more bats with his slider to find lasting success at the upper levels.
New York Mets - RHP Jose Guevara
The Mets signed Guevara in September out of Paraguatan, Venezuela. The 19-year-old has a typical 6-1 frame and has flashed impressive strikeout stuff in just his first professional season. He combined for a perfect game back on June 17 and owns a SO/9 north of ten in the DSL so far. In 44 innings of work, Guevara has 52 strikeouts while surrendering just 12 walks. All that has combined for a solid 1.64 ERA. He’s yet to allow a home run either. He will likely get a chance to test the Complex League in 2025 where we will get more eyes on his stuff and how well it might play in the affiliated ranks.
Washington Nationals - RHP Carlos Romero
Carlos Romero has flown through the system in 2024 and could be in the big leagues to open the 2025 season. Romero debuted in 2024 with High-A Wilmington. He then made 16 appearances with Double-A Harrisburg before making his way to Triple-A Rochester to wrap up the season. Perhaps more impressive than his quick rise through the system has been his success at each level. It culminated in a 2.05 ERA between all three levels with 61 strikeouts in 52.2 IP. Romero is an imposing figure on the mound. His 6-6 frame helps him to generate excellent extension, making his stuff play up despite low velocity. He averages just 92 mph on his four-seam fastball and sinker. He pairs those two offerings with an excellent 60-grade changeup, an above-average slider, and a curveball. The slider has generated a 42.9% whiff rate so far at Triple-A. His changeup averages 86 mph and generates excellent chase rates. It’s a traditional three-quarter release point, but Romero throws with whippy arm action on the release to generate movement in his arsenal.
Miami Marlins - RHP Eliazar Dishmey
Dishmey won’t stand out to many if you simply peruse the stats page on FanGraphs. He reached affiliated ball for the first time this season, making 15 appearances for Low-A Jupiter. In 59.1 innings of work, he’s mustered a 5.31 ERA and allowed six home runs. It’s clear that the 19-year-old has some work to do, but the pure stuff in his arsenal offers an excellent foundation to do so. Dishmey was the Florida State League Pitcher of the Week twice this season — the first Marlin minor leaguer to accomplish that feat since Eury Pérez did so in 2022. He throws a five-pitch mix, featuring a four-seamer, sinker, curveball, slider, and changeup. He averages 94 mph on his heater, with room to add there at just 19 years old. He spins the baseball well, averaging north of 2300 rpm with both fastballs. Mix all that with above-average extension and Dishmey generates above-average whiff rates. There’s a lot to love in the profile, with the potential for two plus fastballs. With an offseason to continue refining the arsenal, Dishmey could level up his breaking ball to really move up the prospect rankings quickly.
National League Central
Milwaukee Brewers - SS/3B Jesus Made
A 17-year-old switch-hitting infielder with a .223 ISO? Sign me up. Made made his professional debut this season after signing with the Brewers last winter. He’s been among the best hitters in the entire DSL in 2024, slashing .331/.458/.554. Made has 21 extra-base hits, 39 walks, and 28 strikeouts. It’s an impressive blend of discipline at the plate, power when making contact, and an ability to limit strikeouts. To top it all off, Made also has 28 steals in 51 games. It’s still just the DSL, but Made is quickly putting himself on the map as a true prospect. He entered August with a 104 mph 90th-percentile Exit Velocity and a 44% hard-hit rate. His swing is fluid and impressive, taking the baseball to all fields with authority. At just 17 years old, he’s a name to watch, not just for Milwaukee, but the entire minor leagues.
Chicago Cubs - RHP Juan Bello
Bello signed with Chicago out of Cartagena, Colombia back in 2022. He’s pitched at a level each season since, making the Complex League last season and spending all of 2024 with Myrtle Beach. Now 20 years old, Bello has made 21 starts with Low-A Myrtle Beach so far pitching to a 3.42 FIP. His 25.1% strikeout rate isn’t all that impressive alone, but he’s paired it with a low walk rate (7.8%) and a low average against (.229). He leans heavily on a fastball/curveball combination, but also mixes in a changeup sparingly. Bello mixes in some Johnny Cueto-esque hesitation in his delivery at times. He throws from a high-three-quarter release point and has good carry on his fastball. The curveball is Bello’s best pitch, offering great 1-7 movement with whip out of the hand. It’s a great foundational profile that still needs a bit more refinement.
St Louis Cardinals - RHP Luis Gastelum
It took an offseason and a second stint at Low-A, but Gastelum has really leveled up his stuff so far in 2024. He made his debut in 2023 with Palm Beach striking out just 14.0% of batters. He rarely walks batters but needed more strikeout stuff than that. The strikeout stuff arrived in 2024, resulting in a 28.9% K-BB%. Although his velocity still averages 92mph at best, Gastelum throws three above-average pitches with a potentially plus changeup leading the way. He generates great extension, spinning the ball extremely well and generating elite whiff rates. His changeup especially excels there, with a 56.8% Whiff% this season, but his Sinker has reached 20.4% in that regard as well. It’s currently a four-pitch mix, also featuring a four-seam fastball and a slider. Gastelum’s slider has a solid profile, but he misses the zone with it far too much currently to really take advantage. If there’s a knock on Gastelum, it’s age. He’s already 22 years old after getting a late start to his career. The stuff has traits to play in the upper levels, but he’ll need to shoot through the system in 2025 to maintain true prospect status.
Cincinnati Reds - RHP Anyer Laureano
Unfortunately, injury has sidelined Laureano on the back end of 2024, but not before he put together a solid Low-A Debut. He made 29 appearances with Daytona, striking out 81 batters in just 54.0 innings of work. That’s an impressive 35.5% strikeout rate, helping him to overcome a rather high walk rate. The result was a 3.00 ERA, with a 4.01 FIP that better represents his command issues. Laureano has an electric arsenal, led by an upper 90s fastball. His four-seamer averages 96.6 mph, spun at more than 2600 rpm on average. He pairs that with a cutter, slider, and changeup. It all comes together in a 47.9% whiff rate this season. All four pitches feature elite whiff rates and the four-seamer and slider alone have the stuff to make Laureano a high-leverage back-end bullpen prospect.
Pittsburgh Pirates - LHP Inmer Lobo
Inmer Lobo signed with the Red Sox back in 2022 out of Venezuela. He made his way rather quickly to the Pirates organization in November 2022. He was traded by Boston in exchange for infielder Hoy Park and has continued to pitch to impressive results ever since. Lobo, still just 20 years old, made his way to Low-A for the first time this season. Now 15 starts into his season, he’s pitched to a 1.65 ERA. Although his strikeout rate has dipped noticeably, there’s still a lot of potential to like in the profile. Lobo struck out 39.6% of batters in the Complex League to open 2024, but that mark dipped to 24.2% in his sample in A ball. His arsenal features a fastball, changeup, and slider. The fastball averages just 87.1 mph, but there’s hope he can add there as he continues to fill out his frame. Despite the low velocity, the pitch has a near-elite 19.3 inches of induced vertical break (iVB), making it quite a bit more effective than you’d expect. All three of his pitches generate healthy whiff rates, with his slider and changeup both sitting above 30%. It’s projection here more than anything, but there’s a sound foundation should the velocity start to tick upward.
National League west
Los Angeles Dodgers - RHP Jose Rodriguez
After signing with the Dodgers as a 19-year-old in 2019, Rodriguez didn’t pitch officially for the organization until 2021. The Oaxaca, Mexico native debuted with mixed results, and those up-and-down trends have continued throughout his minor league career thus far. Now in his fourth professional season, Rodriguez has finally made his way to Advanced-A ball and continues to rack up strikeouts at an elite rate. Much of that stems from an 88th percentile whiff rate (36.5%). In all, he’s struck out 121 batters in just 84.2 IP between A and High-A this season. He throws a fastball, changeup, and slider. The changeup sits in the mid-80s with solid fading action, and the slider is a potentially plus pitch in the 86-88mph range. Rodriguez throws his fastball in the mid-90s and the pitch plays up nicely thanks to some deception in his delivery. He has hip-twist mechanics, turning his back fully to the batter’s box before showing the baseball at the last moment in his delivery. There’s some late-inning reliever upside, but more likely he profiles as a solid bullpen piece that provides middle-innings relief.
Arizona Diamondbacks - OF Angel Ortiz
Outfielder Angel Ortiz signed with Arizona out of the Dominican Republic back in July 2019. Between the canceled 2020 season and an injury last season, Ortiz has only just now reached 86 games played in Low-A. Ortiz landed on the injured list in March 2023 and went on to miss the full season. Now, into 2024, he’s spent all but two games this season with the Visalia Rawhide. In 83 games, he’s slashed .303/.385/.466, limiting his strikeout totals nicely while walking around ten percent. Ortiz swings with a fairly compact operation which helps him take the ball to all fields. At still just 21 years old, time remains for Ortiz to cement himself as a notable prospect within the organization. The ceiling isn’t sky-high, as his 6-0 frame doesn’t leave much projection for more power, but it’s an intriguing profile nonetheless.
San Diego Padres - 1B Romeo Sanabria
An 18th-round first baseman doesn’t seem like a demographic that rarely turns in notable prospects. That may just be the case for Sanabria, who’s shot through the Padres system with authority this summer. After starting the season with 59 games for Low-A Elsinore, Sanabria made a pit stop in Fort Wayne. From there, he has finished his season with Double-A San Antonio. The sample in 22 games has been solid so far. He’s slashed .338/.441/.405 with the Missions. Unfortunately, that success has come with a serious drop in power. After posting a .183 ISO at Low-A, he’s been much lower at .068 since moving to Double-A. As a first base prospect, the Padres will need more power than that. However, Sanabria’s 6-3, 200-pound frame certainly offers the potential for more. He’s 22 years old at Double-A, sporting an excellent 20.6% chase rate alongside an 82.1% zone contact rate. It’s a razor-thin profile heavily dependent on more power, but worth monitoring regardless.
San Francisco Giants - LHP Dylan Carmouche
Carmouche was a 15th-round selection by San Francisco in last year’s Amateur Draft. He showcased strikeout potential in the college ranks, but that didn’t quite show itself in his professional debut this season. Carmouche struck out 24.0% of batters with Low-A San Jose, sporting a sound 2.74 ERA. That showing earned Carmouche a mid-season promotion and he’s posted a 29.0% strikeout rate with High-A Eugene. He throws from a high over-hand release point. The pitch mix features a fastball, curveball, and changeup. All three pitches offer swing-and-miss upside, but the changeup is the true lead offering within Carmouche’s arsenal. It offers excellent fading action and works well off of his 12-6 curveball.
Colorado Rockies - LHP Welinton Herrera
The Rockies scouted Herrera in the Dominican Republic at just 15 years old. He signed with the organization a year later at age 16. Now 20 years old, Herrera made a full-season debut, splitting the year between both levels of A Ball. The immediate returns for Low-A Fresno were absurd. Herrera made 23 appearances for Fresno this season, striking out 62 batters in just 34.0 innings of work. The math on that shakes out to an asinine 44.6% strikeout rate. Part of that success lies in a very low three-quarter arm slot. He pairs that low arm slot with an upper-90s heater that flies past bats up in the strikezone. He also mixes in a mid-80s slider but leans heavily on the fastball. And why not? Between the velocity, arm slot, and vertical break, the pitch is nearly impossible for hitters to do damage on. He’s allowed just three home runs as a professional, dating back to his first season in the Dominican Summer League. The results have dipped some since a mid-season promotion to High-A Spokane, but the fastball provides an excellent foundation for a future back-end bullpen piece.
One Underrated Prospect from Every American League Organization
There are just a handful of weeks remaining in the 2024 minor league season. Every team has added draft picks and potentially even trade deadline acquisitions to their system. Every organization has the “usual suspects” in the farm system that fans of the team have come to know. They follow these players because they’re covered in detail by the media and fans alike. Beyond those top prospects, however, is often where next year’s top prospects tend to start out. Take 2023 for example, when Royals prospects Austin Charles and Javier Vaz were relatively unknown prospects. A year later, each is a consensus top prospect in that system.
The fun in minor league baseball isn’t just following the top names that everyone else tells you to keep tabs on. More fun comes from finding those diamonds in the rough players. Not every prospect is going to be an ace or MVP, but there are plenty of Whit Merrifield-esque prospects out there who can come from nowhere to really shine in the Major Leagues. The Royals fan in me will stop throwing in references to Kansas City now, but here’s a look at one underrated prospect from every organization in the American League.
American League East
Boston Red Sox - RHP Jedixson Paez
Paez is a 20-year-old RHP from Tinaquillo, Venezuela. He was named the organization’s 2021 Latin Program Pitcher of the Year and has been dominant this season for High-A Greenville. He throws a sinker, changeup, and a good sweeping slider. Paez locates all three pitches for strikes. He generates healthy whiff rates, especially on his changeup. His 31.5% strikeout rate at High-A this season ranks 87th percentile. Much of that comes from a 78th percentile whiff rate (33.5%) and excellent command. Paez has a walk rate under four percent and has maintained that throughout his professional career thus far. At still just 20 years old, there’s hope that Paez’s low-90s heater can continue to add velocity, giving him an even higher ceiling as a starter. He’s an intriguing name with plenty of upside left to uncover.
New York Yankees - RHP Luis Serna
It’s much easier to see Serna’s 6.07 ERA this season and discount him as a non-prospect. Looking closer, the story isn’t quite the same. He throws a low-90s fastball, a curveball, and a vicious changeup that hitters struggle to square up. He’s put together above-average marks this season for whiff rate, CSW%, and K-BB%. Although hitters tend to get their share of hits off of Serna — he’s allowed opposing hitters to hit .250 against him this season — he commands the zone well and misses a healthy amount of bats. The result is a sub-4.00 FIP that better shows what he’s done on the mound this season. 82 strikeouts and 24 walks in less than 70 innings of work is nothing to shrug at. He’s a young arm with excellent pitchability that could skyrocket up the system in 2025 and beyond.
Toronto Blue jays - of Victor arias
Arias is a 20-year-old outfielder who spent most of this season with Low-A Dunedin. He generates loud exit velocity despite his smaller 5-9 frame. He’s maxed out at 113 mph this season, sitting at 104.5 mph 90th percentile EV. There’s more than enough swing-and-miss in his game, but despite that, he does a solid job limiting strikeout totals. In 76 games for Low-A Dunedin this season, Arias slashed .279/.386/.454 with a .175 ISO. Defensively, he’s split time between left and center, but probably shifts to a corner full time as he continues to fill out his frame. The swing is electric but gets a bit long at times. As long as he continues to generate in-zone contact rates around 80% as he’s done this season, there’s a lot to love in his overall profile.
Tampa Bay Rays - RHP Ty Johnson
Ty Johnson joined the Rays system at this year’s deadline in the Isaac Paredes deal. His velocity has seen a steady increase since being drafted in 2023 by Chicago. Now post-trade, that velocity uptick has continued further. Johnson has worked his fastball up to 97 mph. The pitch was already above average at 93-95 mph due to excellent spin rates and extension. The pitch jumps out of the hand with a sharp arm side whip giving way to excellent carry up in the strike zone. He’s a swing-and-miss darling, posting a 37.3% (92nd percentile) whiff rate so far this season at High-A. It’s a much smaller sample, but since joining the Rays system, Johnson has struck out 16 batters in just 9.2 innings of work. He seems like an excellent fit for the organization and the needle continues to point straight up for his future.
Baltimore orioles - RHP Kevin Velasco
As much firepower as the Orioles have had in their farm system of late, it seems easier than anywhere else for names to slide under the radar. Kevin Velasco signed with the organization out of Venezuela in 2023 and has looked electric in 2024. He’s 18 years old and should get a chance to pitch stateside for the first time in 2025. So far this season in the Dominican Summer League, Velasco has struck out 52 batters in 40.0 IP. He’s walked just ten in that span, pitching to an impressive 1.13 ERA. Perhaps even more impressive than the command of the strikezone has been his ability to limit hard contact. Velasco hasn’t allowed a home run all season while peppering the strikezone consistently.
American League Central
Kansas City Royals - RHP Steven Zobac
Steven Zobac is already rising quickly out there, so it may be a bit late to truly include him as an “under-the-radar” type of prospect. Regardless, I’ll include him anyway. Zobac, a fourth-round pick in 2022, has moved quickly through the system this season. Since arriving at Double-A earlier this season, he owns a 35.8% strikeout rate and a 31.3% K-BB%. He’s dominant with the fastball. The pitch sits in the mid-90s, operating mostly in the 93-95mph range. He spins the ball well, commands it on the black consistently, and misses bats at elite levels. His 35.6% whiff rate at the level ranks 90th percentile this season. He rounds out the pitch mix with a slider and changeup. The slider can sometimes be good, but inconsistent shape limits it sometimes. Despite that, the margin for error is rather wide due to how exceptional the fastball has been.
Cleveland Guardians - LHP Matt Wilkinson
The Guardians selected Matt Wilkinson in the 10th round of the 2023 MLB Draft. He signed for just $110,000 after spending much of his college career at Central Arizona Community College. Wilkinson made just one official appearance in 2023, striking out the side in one inning of work. The 21-year-old debuted in 2024 in A Ball, quickly moving his way up to High-A Lake County. Since the promotion, Wilkinson has made 13 starts. He’s struck out an impressive 33.9% of batters. “Tugboat” as he’s known, throws a low-90s fastball, an excellent sweeping slider, and a good changeup with arm-side fading action. His arm slot is deceptive, coming in as a low three-quarter operation that helps his stuff play up more than one might expect. Even in the low-90s, his fastball offers deception and good life up in the strikezone, helping the pitch to miss bats.
Detroit Tigers - SS Ronald Ramirez
The Tigers signed Ramirez back in January out of the Dominican Republic. The 17-year-old has shined in his first professional season. This year in the Dominican Summer League, he’s played a mixture of shortstop and second base, spending most of his time in the hole. He’s slashed .353/.459/.441 with a 17.1% strikeout rate. It’s a smaller 5-10 frame that could limit the power upside long-term, but the mixture of contact skills and a sound approach at the plate make Ramirez an intriguing young prospect. He’s still just 17 years old. Defensively, it’s more of a work in progress. His footwork can be inconsistent, throwing off his infield timing. Should he move to second base, more power output may be needed to truly carry the profile.
Minnesota Twins - OF Eduardo Beltre
Beltre is another 17-year-old prospect playing in the Dominican Summer League this season. Beltre was a top 50 international prospect in the most recent signing period. He received the 25th-largest signing bonus in the class and has shown up early in a big way for the Twins. He’s still listed at 5-11, 175 by FanGraphs but should continue to grow and develop into a larger frame. Even without that, his power output has been off the charts. He slashed .326/.453/.618 with an outrageous .292 ISO in the Dominican this summer. Beltre strikes out enough to make note (23.8%) but walks more than 15% of the time as well. He’s a prospect worth monitoring and could quickly become one of the best young prospects in the Minnesota farm system. It’s a level swing that generates excellent lift, especially to the pull side.
Chicago White Sox - RHP Yhoiker Fajardo
Fajardo has been a standout 17-year-old arm in the DSL this season. He throws primarily a two-pitch fastball/slider combination. The fastball has touched the mid-90s and the slider sits more in the low-80s with late bite. It’s a raw profile, but Fajardo already touches the mid-90s and should be able to add a tick or two more to that as he fills out his 6-3 frame. The two-pitch mix has generated a ton of strikeouts in the DSL this season. Across 50.2 innings of work, Fajardo struck out 64 batters. He pitched to a 2.50 FIP and walked just eight batters in the process. He commands the strike zone well with an easily repeatable delivery but will have to round out the pitch mix to find more success stateside. He allowed a .256 BAA and will have to improve that in the Complex League once he makes his way there.
American League West
Seattle Mariners - LHP Carlos Jimenez
It’s been quite the road for Jimenez since signing as a 16-year-old back in 2021. He spent two seasons in the Dominican Summer League, followed by two more with the Mariners in the Arizona Complex League. In 2024, he finally made the leap from the Complex to Modesto and continued to shine. Jimenez has a smaller frame, but his quick bat speed helps to generate good power and loud exit velocity. His first taste of full-season ball has seen him slash .308/.394/.484 with three home runs and 11 stolen bases. He won’t likely ever be a true home run hitter, but rarely chases out of the zone (19.7% chase rate at Low-A). His good eye and approach at the plate help to carry a solid floor. He’s still a bit too passive at the plate, digging himself into disadvantageous counts that don’t offer him much help alongside his worse-than-average whiff rates. Jimenez has the speed to stick in center field but could end up playing a corner by the time he’s further along in the system.
Texas Rangers - RHP Skylar Hales
Hales is a big 6-4 flamethrower. He throws pure gas out of the bullpen. The fastball lives in the upper 90s, touching 100 a handful of times this season. He pairs that with a good slider that falls off with more of a gyro-slider profile. The fastball explodes out of the hand from Hales, offering an excellent vertical approach that makes it nearly impossible for batters to square up. Hales was a fourth-rounder for the Rangers in 2023 and made his way to Double-A for the first time this season. He got in 19 innings of work for the Rough Riders, striking out 29.5% of batters while limiting walks. If there’s any knock on Hales, it’s his disappointing whiff rates. For an arm throwing so much gas, you’d expect them to be higher. However, he’s mustered just a 26.1% whiff rate. There’s certainly the potential for those to improve and he could be a quick-moving arm to supplement the Texas bullpen as early as 2025.
Houston Astros - RHP Wilmy Sanchez
Sanchez is an interesting young arm. He’s pitched at both A-ball levels this season as a 20-year-old. A midseason promotion took him to High-A where he’s made five appearances so far. He’s posted a strikeout rate of 36.6% with an excellent 14.1% swinging strike rate. Sanchez throws a fastball, changeup, and a solid slider/cutter. The fastball lives in the 91-93 mph range but has touched 95 at times. He does a good job missing bats with the pitch thanks to good spin and life, but likely won’t add too much more velocity due to his relatively small frame. The changeup is a real weapon, sitting in the upper-80s with great arm-side fading action. It plays very well with the fastball, coming out of the hand and looking very similar before falling off the table. The slider/cutter rounds out the pitch mix, sitting in the upper 80s. He misses bats at an excellent rate and finds the zone enough to offer a fairly high reliever ceiling long-term.
Oakland Athletics - OF Nate Nankil
A seventh-rounder out of Cal State Fullerton last summer, Nankil has started to move his way through the system for the Athletics in 2024. He debuted at Low-A before eventually making the move up a level to High-A Lansing. The trade deadline acquisition of Jared Dickey helped round out what’s become an impressive High-A outfield featuring Dickey, Nankil, and Ryan Lasko. Nankil has slashed .353/.413/.412 for the Lugnuts. It’s a contact profile more than a power one, but Nankil rarely chases out of the zone. He has a great eye at the plate, and flirts with above-average in-zone contact rates just short of 80%. Better-than-average whiff rates help to limit strikeouts, giving Nankil an intriguing profile long-term. He showed much more power potential at Low-A, posting a .174 ISO but that power hasn’t followed him since his midseason promotion. It’s a smooth stroke that sprays the ball all over the field, even if it won’t result in off the charts power potential.
Los Angeles Angels - RHP Jose Fermin
The Angels signed Fermin in 2023 as a 21-year-old. He made his professional debut in 2024. He debuted with 18 games with Inland Empire, striking out 26.8% of batters. A mid-season promotion gave way to more success. With High-A Tri-City, that strikeout rate has ballooned to 36.8%. He’s a big, hard-throwing righty with a 6-3, 248 frame. The fastball touches 97 with some deception. The stuff on his fastball is so good that it’s simply undermatched in High-A right now. If you need more evidence of that fact, look no further than his 44.5% whiff rate at the level (99th percentile). Beyond the fastball, however, things get a bit less impressive. Fermin has a solid but inconsistent breaking ball with curveball traits. His command and lack of a well-rounded arsenal are both limiting factors that impact his success on the bump. If he can figure out that command, the fastball offers a solid foundation to build upon for a potential relief option long-term.
2024 Futures Game Preview
This preview is my favorite type of piece I like to write, where I just get to unload my internal notes, both written and from memory, and talk about prospects. All the information in this article is sourced from contacts, inside and outside of Prospects Live, as well as things I’ve heard in various discussions with people in the industry. There’s also a sizable portion of video looks here from this season and some AFL call backs. All of the grades are my own and might differ from what you see on the site now or in the future. I’m just a part of our pro coverage, so my grades aren’t the end all be all.
American League Roster
Pitchers
A.J. Blubaugh, RHP Astros - 45 OFP
Acquired: Drafted in the 7th round, 223rd overall in the 2022 draft out of the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee.
Report: Blubaugh was a reliever in college but is now on the cusp of the big leagues here for the Astros. He’s coming off of a strong 2023 season which began in High-A and Double-A before ending with an Arizona Fall League stint, and he showed he could consistently miss bats as he adjusted to his new role as a starter. He’s spent all of 2024 in Triple-A averaging 92 with the four-seamer, sitting 91-95 with good ride. His best secondary is his change but his newly found cutter gives him another weapon against left-handers. He also throws the full kitchen sink of breaking balls, with a sweeper, slider and a big vertical curveball rounding out the arsenal.
Future Role: Injuries have hit the Astros pitching staff hard this season and Blubaugh looks like the next man up at this point off of the Sugar Land squad. That’s selling him a bit short as he’s pitched really well this season in a difficult Pacific Coast League environment and has earned his opportunity, whenever it comes. Blubaugh has good enough stuff and a deep enough arsenal to remain as a starter long term, but his previous experience as a bullpen arm could shift him into the bullpen if the Astros arms ever get healthy.
Pitch Grades: Fastball (50), Cutter (55), Changeup (50), Curveball (45), Command (45)
Caden Dana, RHP Angels - 50 OFP
Acquired: Drafted in the 11th round, 328th overall in the 2022 draft out Don Bosco Preparatory High School in New Jersey.
Report: Dana was given $1.5 million to sign in the eleventh round which was the highest bonus in history for someone picked later than the tenth round. The Angels admired his physicality and had to sign Dana away from a strong commitment to the University of Kentucky. His fastball sits 93-95 and touches 97 with excellent ride at the top of the zone. His big developed frame allows him to hold his velocity through his starts and it’s a true bat missing pitch. His slider has become his best secondary, getting whiffs against left and right-handed hitters and it gets set up by the fastball. They work in tandem together and he just overpowers hitters. His third pitch is a slow 12-to-6 breaker that he uses to steal strikes. He’s shelved his changeup it appears and that was projected to be his best secondary when he was drafted. Dana is showing the best command of his career to this point, and the Angels have made a point to say that they have no innings limit for Dana this year despite him throwing 68 innings last year and getting shut down in July.
Future Role: Dana very much looks like a future starter with a developed frame and strong lower half. He’s improved across the board in 2024, showing improved sequencing and setting hitters up. The lack of depth to his arsenal and only having two above-average offerings in his fastball and slider could push him into the bullpen if the Angels are looking for immediate impact, which they shouldn’t be. Dana would succeed in that role due to his fastball and slider, but the Angels have no reason to make that swap. He’s consistently going deep in game in Double-A and is routinely up over 90 pitches a start. He leads the Southern League in innings pitched as I type this.
Pitch Grades: Fastball (55), Slider (60), Curveball (45), Changeup (40), Command (50)
Ben Kudrna, RHP Royals - 45 OFP
Acquired: Drafted in the 2nd round, 43rd overall in the 2021 draft out of Blue Valley Southwest HS in Kansas.
Report: The Royals gave Kudrna a $3 million dollar bonus to sign and forego his commitment to LSU. He’s added mass to his already advanced frame since signing and has the look of a future big league starter. Kudrna has been pitching for High-A Quad Cities in 2024, which is where he ended his 2023 campaign. His fastball sits 92-94 and touches 97, and he compliments it with a changeup and a slider. Both secondary pitches have improved their sharpness this year and it shows in the numbers as opposing hitters are only hitting .204 against him this season. His changeup has excellent shape, with sharp downward movement and arm-side run. It’s a plus pitch and hitters are having a tough time lifting the pitch. His slider has added some break and he’s getting more whiffs against right-handers. His command remains average.
Future Role: Kudrna has the look of a future backend starter due to his three pitch arsenal and average command. He has a big sturdy frame and could be more than an innings eater if the changeup and/or slider continue on an upward trajectory. The fastball lacks the ideal shape to be a consistent swing and miss option and he’s going to have to continue to rely on his secondaries for whiffs as he moves up the ladder.
Pitch Grades: Fastball (50), Changeup (55), Slider (50), Command (50)
Luis Morales, RHP Athletics - 50 OFP
Acquired: Signed out of Cuba in 2023 for $3 million.
Report: Morales was a big ticket international signee by the A’s in the 2023 signing period. He has some of the best stuff by any pitcher in this event and will really shine in his one inning burst because of his premium velocity and athleticism. He sits at 96-97 with the fastball and reportedly has hit 100 at his peak. He has a pair of loud breaking balls, a big sweeper and a heavy curveball with two-plane depth. His changeup is still developing and likely won’t be used in this event. The command is still coming along, but he’s still young and is tracking as a future starter.
Future Role: Morales’ command issues could ultimately push him to the pen but the hope is his athleticism and stuff can help him get past that and keep him in the rotation long term. He’s more of a thrower than a pitcher right now, and that, coupled with his longer arm action are enough to cast at least some doubt on his future role.
Pitch Grades: Fastball (70), Sweeper (60), Curveball (55), Changeup (30) Command (40)
Fernando Perez, RHP Blue Jays - 45 OFP
Acquired: Signed out of Nicaragua in 2022 for $10,000
Report: Fernando Perez is one of the breakout arms of 2024, befuddling Single-A hitters with his above-average command, sequencing and plus changeup. That combination typically leads to success at the lower levels but Perez lacks the typical pedigree that comes with it. He’s only 20 but moves the ball around the zone and mixes in his whole arsenal very well. The delivery has some abruptness to it, with some starts and stops that could get ironed out but he controls himself so well and still fills up the zone as is.
Future Role: Perez looks like a solid bet to remain a starting pitcher and the only real question here is his ultimate ceiling. The plus changeup and command alone will get him through the lower levels with a high rate of success so his first real test will come as he advances. He looks like a future SP 4 with some room for a bit more. If he can find more velocity (he sits 92-93) or gets more from his gyro slider, he can find another gear.
Pitch Grades: Fastball (50), Changeup (60), Slider (50), Curveball (40) Command (55)
Noah Schultz, LHP White Sox - 60 OFP
Acquired: Drafted in the 1st round, 26th overall in the 2022 draft out of Oswego East HS in Illinois.
Report: Schultz is our second ranked pitching prospect on our mid-season T100 list, ranking only behind Jackson Jobe. The biggest knock against Schultz was his durability after missing his senior year in high school due to an illness and most of 2023 due to a flexor strain. He’s healthy now and has already doubled his 2023 innings total in 2024, and he has bulked up, adding mass to his stringbean frame. The stuff is premium, with his plus fastball and slider combination as well as plus command, this is a rare front of the rotation starter. He sits 93-95 and touches 98 with run, and it plays up due to his low release. His sweeper is in the low 80s with insane horizontal movement and he even has a changeup that has flashed above-average.
Future Role: Schultz is one of the higher upside starters in the game with two plus offerings in his pocket and a changeup that could also get there. He’s working on dispelling the durability concerns that could prevent him from becoming that future number one starter type, and will move as fast as the White Sox choose to push him.
Pitch Grades: Fastball (60), Slider (60), Changeup (50), Command (60)
Winston Santos, RHP Rangers - 45 OFP
Acquired: Signed out of Dominican Republic in 2019 for $10,000
Report: Santos signed with the Rangers for $10,000 in 2019 but then had to wait two years to make his professional debut due to the Covid pandemic. He showed an ability to miss bats in the past but has really found another level this season, in his 40-man roster evaluation season. He’s added ride to his 95-96 MPH heater and the optimized shape has also added some run. His best secondary is a 85-86 MPH gyro slider and an improved changeup. His arm action is a little whippy and he doesn’t repeat as often as you’d like but he throws enough strikes that you shouldn’t be concerned about it.
Future Role: Santos started 2024 in High-A, which is where he finished 2023. But this time around he came with improved stuff and after 12 starts he was bumped up to Double-A. Santos has the stuff and command to stick as a starter but the biggest thing working against him is the clock. He’s got seven innings under his belt in Double-A so far but will need to be added to the 40-man roster after the season. That could push him to the bullpen.
Pitch Grades: Fastball (60), Slider (50), Changeup (50), Command (50)
Brock Selvidge, LHP Yankees - 45 OFP
Acquired: Drafted in the 3rd round, 92nd overall in the 2021 draft out of Hamilton HS in Arizona.
Report: Selvidge got a $1.5 million bonus from the Yankees despite coming off the board in the third round. The fastball is a high spin offering in the 90-92 range but he has at times lived more in the 93-94 range early in his starts before the velocity drifts. His best secondary pitch is his slider, a gyro slider which is difficult for the hitters to pick up out of the hand due to its unique spin. His changeup and cutter are both in the mid-to-high 80s and are fringe pitches at present. He has a unique delivery and with his hands held very high and he often looks off balanced and falls off hard to the third base side.
Future Role: Selvidge’s command has fallen off a bit this year and the walks are piling up in Double-A. He had a reputation as a strike thrower with his fastball and slider, but he won’t last as a starter with his current command profile and only a two pitch mix. He will need one of his cutter or change to evolve and become a more trustworthy part of his arsenal. His fastball and slider should play well out of the bullpen though and we will get a glimpse of that in his one inning stint.
Pitch Grades: Fastball (55), Slider (60), Changeup (40), Cutter (40), Command (45)
Emiliano Teodo, RHP Rangers - 50 OFP
Acquired: Signed out of Dominican Republic in 2020 for $10,000
Report: Teodo was another low dollar bonus find by the Rangers, and he might be the most electric arm in this showcase event. As a starter Teodo is sitting 97-98, sometimes higher, with a slider that gets whiffs and generates groundballs. It’s pure filth. In a one inning stint in the Arizona Fall League he was up to 102, and he is going to be must see TV in his one inning of work.
Future Role: The Rangers should absolutely keep using Teodo as a starter because it’s working. He has a 1.71 ERA through 14 starts in the Texas League and really should get a bump to either Triple-A or the big leagues later this year. This is his 40-man evaluation year so a big league promotion could be valuable as he should be in the Rangers plans next year.
Pitch Grades: Fastball (70), Slider (60), Changeup (40), Command (45)
Hitters
Samuel Basallo, C Orioles - 60 OFP
Acquired: Signed out of Dominican Republic in 2021 for $1.3 million.
Report: Not even a stress fracture in his right (throwing) elbow could keep Basallo down to start 2024. He played through the injury for the season’s first month, mostly just DH’ing while also playing first occasionally. He was on a throwing program and resumed catching again in the middle of May, but that story gets buried a bit by the offensive production here as a teenager in Double-A. He’s hitting everything, and is even getting a slight reputation as a bit of a free swinger, but he’s been doing damage even on pitches out of the zone. Mechanically the swing reminds me of Rafael Devers with the deep load and controlled chaos that ensues afterwards. He’s fringy behind the plate, and he had plus arm strength prior to the injury, but the verdict is still out on if he can catch or not. With two plus offensive tools in the hit and power, I’d say it might not matter too much where he plays? Just find him a lineup spot.
Future Role: Basallo looks like a solid bet to be the future designated hitter in Baltimore, so the presence of Adley Rutschman won’t matter as much here. He’s a future middle of the lineup hitter though and one you can build your future lineup around. He’s likely going to make his big league debut sometime in 2025, but if there was a need in Baltimore he could likely hold his own.
Tool Grades: Hit (60), Power (70), Defense (45), Arm (60), Speed (40)
Harry Ford, C Mariners - 45 OFP
Acquired: Drafted in the 1st round, 12th overall of the 2021 draft out of North Cobb HS in Georgia.
Report: Athleticism is the ticket here with Harry Ford, and not many players at the catching position in affiliated ball are in the same ballpark as he is athletically. Ford is has recently asked to start playing some outfield instead of DH’ing on his off days as he wants to be more involved in the game. He’s a plus runner with a quick first step and twitchy actions. The speed should translate as he climbs the ladder. He’s more of a gap to gap guy as the power is below-average. It hasn’t taken the jump I expected due to his frame and athleticism. Instead he’s more of a gap to gap hitter whose home run power is limited to his pull-side. He’s a low ball hitter and also struggles handling pitches at the top of the zone, so big league pitchers will exploit that. The approach is passive, and the swing decisions are solid, but the walk rate is inflated a bit by his passivity. Defensively he has a cannon for an arm and has improved immensely behind the plate with his receiving and framing but still struggles blocking pitches in the dirt.
Future Role: Ford is a future big league catcher in my eyes as the defense has improved enough and his arm is a weapon. I do have some concerns about if he hits enough though. He’s going to get beat up in the zone unless he’s able to adjust but should still be able to go gap to gap while also stealing a healthy amount of bases. He’s likely an average hitter in the future that shows flashes of more than that due to his athleticism.
Tool Grades: Hit (50), Power (40), Defense (50), Arm (60), Speed (60)
Kyle Teel, C Red Sox - 55 OFP
Acquired: Drafted in the 1st round, 14th overall of the 2023 draft out of the University of Virginia.
Report: Teel ascended all the way up to Double-A in his draft year after just 17 games and ended up finishing the year there. He started 2024 in Double-A and quickly proved the collegiate numbers and the brief pro success weren’t a fluke. His hit tool and on-base skills are more developed than the power but he’s still going to pop somewhere between 18-25 homers at peak with plenty of doubles boosting his power numbers. His defensive skills are solidly above-average across the board and he’s a great athlete.
Future Role: Teel might be the most well rounded catching prospect in all of the minor leagues, and when it is all said and done 13 teams might regret passing on him in the 2023 draft. Teel is part of the trio in Portland that seemingly will move to Worcester by the end of the month. Teel should be in the mix to win the Red Sox catching job out of spring next year.
Tool Grades: Hit (55), Power (45), Defense (55), Arm (55), Speed (55)
Xavier Isaac, 1B Rays - 55 OFP
Acquired: Drafted in the 1st round, 29th overall of the 2022 draft out of East Forsyth HS in North Carolina
Report: A surprise first rounder when he was selected due to injuries costing him most of his draft summer, people aren’t questioning the pick anymore. Isaac had a true breakout in 2023, hitting .285/.395/.521 with 19 homers over 102 games. He really put things into high gear when he was bumped up to High-A and hit .408/.491/.808 with six homers over just 12 games. Isaac has really done a fantastic job improving the body while maintaining the easy power, but its the power with the on-base abilities that sets himself apart. He’s a future middle of the lineup bat that should post strong OBP’s while swatting 30+ homers at peak. His improvised physique has also allowed him to be an average defender at first base and staying on the field seemingly has helped him in the box.
Future Role: I’m as anti-first base prospect as it gets but even Isaac has managed to win me over with his offensive production and upside. He’s a complete hitter with an above-average hit tool (plus if you include his eye) and plus power with plus-plus raw. I expect him to spend the second half of the season in Double-A with a possible eye towards the big leagues in 2025, more likely 2026.
Tool Grades: Hit (55), Power (60), Defense (50), Arm (50), Speed (40)
Luke Keaschall, 2B Twins - 50 OFP
Acquired: Drafted in the 2nd round, 49th overall of the 2023 draft out of Arizona State University
Report: Keaschall looks like a potential steal for the Twins, getting him 49th overall in the 2023 draft. He’s been one of the more impressive hitters across the minor leagues, and that’s despite him dealing with an elbow injury that has forced him to DH duties more often than he’d like. His swing is direct to the ball and the contact rates have been impressive, hovering around the 84-85% range while also not expanding the zone. He’s added some loft to his swing and has already hit ten homers this year because of his ability to back spin the baseball. He’s going to be a high on-base guy with mostly gap power and above-average speed. He is fine at second base but his arm will limit him on the high effort plays.
Future Role: Keaschall can hit, and that’s the most important thing. Ideally he’s the Twins second baseman of the future, but as currently constructed he might have to learn some corner outfield or learn to get more comfortable as a DH. He’s not going to be good enough defensively to chase off a young infielder that’s already established himself there, but the bat is the type that you push people out of the way for. He’s spent sometime this year at second and in centerfield primarily but has also played some first base in 2024. It’s likely a mid-to-late 2025 timetable for Keaschall though and he will be fun to watch move through the minors.
Tool Grades: Hit (60), Power (45), Defense (50), Arm (40), Speed (55)
Hao-Yu Lee, 2B Tigers - 45 OFP
Acquired: Signed out of Taiwan in 2021 by the Phillies for $650,000. Traded to Detroit for P Michael Lorenzen in 2023.
Report: Lee is enjoying the best year of his career here in 2024 as he’s managed to stay healthy and is hitting a strong .297/.367/.503 with 12 homers, 15 doubles and 4 triples in 72 games. In about a week’s time he will be setting a new career high for games played in a season while showing everyone what it looks like when he does put everything together. He’s hitting for average and power while also showing some savviness on the bases despite below-average speed. He’s greatly improved his prospect stock this year and is a solid all-around player at the keystone.
Future Role: Lee has flashed a pair of average or better tools in 2024 with his hit and power tools, and he’s really starting to get into his power, especially to the pull side. The raw might be plus here and I’m not ruling out Lee getting to it in games because the eye and approach are good. He’s already blown past his career high for homers in a season this year, and it looks like he could hit 20+ homers at his peak. Before the season I would’ve said he was a future utility man or second division regular, but now it looks like he can be an average second baseman with above-average offensive upside.
Tool Grades: Hit (55), Power (50) Defense (50), Arm (50), Speed (45)
Marcelo Mayer, SS Red Sox - 60 OFP
Acquired: Drafted in the 1st round, 4th overall of the 2021 draft from Eastlake HS in California
Report: Mayer looks to be over the injuries that really slowed him down in 2023 and he’s back to his spot near the top of prospect lists as a result. He’s a 20-25 homer infielder that is going to stick at shortstop. That’s a very good player and with the Red Sox glaring need at the position it’s easy to see a clear path to the show for Mayer. He’s an aggressive hitter and will jump on hittable pitches early in the count, but he’s also been more selective this season. He’s repeating Double-A in 2024 but the walk rate is up while also reducing the strikeouts and hitting for more power. Doing exactly what you want and getting positive results.
Future Role: I’d expect Mayer to get bumped to Triple-A shortly after the Future’s Game and he will be given an opportunity early in 2025 to grab a hold of that everyday shortstop job and run with it. Mayer is an above-average bat with above-average power and above-average defensive abilities at shortstop. That can be a franchise building block, and very worthy of a top prospect spot.
Tool Grades: Hit (55), Power (55) Defense (55), Arm (55), Speed (45)
Colson Montgomery, SS White Sox - 50 OFP
Acquired: Drafted in the 1st round, 22nd overall of the 2021 draft from Southridge HS in Indiana
Report: Montgomery is big for shortstop but despite the size he has good defensive actions at shortstop and will likely stick at the position. His athleticism is underrated but the former Indiana basketball recruit was also the quarterback on his high school football team. Offensively is where the upside lies with Montgomery but it's also been the source of frustration this year. The strikeouts have piled up for him in Triple-A and he’s trying to lift everything to right field, even the pitches he shouldn’t. Speed isn’t part of his game so he needs to hit to be a key piece for the White Sox.
Future Role: Originally I thought Montgomery was a slam dunk to make his big league debut sometime this year but the struggles this year likely pushes that to 2025 for me. There’s significant power upside here but he’s having difficulties getting to it in Triple-A because he’s not making enough contact. Pitchers are staying away from him as well and he’s still trying to pull pitches on the outer half. His approach is sound though and when he gets going it should be a nice power and OBP dual threat.
Tool Grades: Hit (45), Power (55) Defense (50), Arm (55), Speed (45)
Ralphy Velazquez, 1B Guardians - 50 OFP
Acquired: Drafted in the 1st round, 23rd overall of the 2023 draft from Huntington Beach HS in California
Report: Ralphy has hung up his catcher’s gear for the time being as the Guardians are focused on drawing as much talent from the bat as they possibly can. The 2023 draftee has been a pleasant surprise with the bat and it appears the Guardians have made the correct call here. Despite the fringy defense he’s actually a good athlete that moves well for his size. His bat is strong enough to stick at first base and his combination of contact and power give him a middle of the lineup profile. It’s natural power, he’s not selling out for it and he doesn’t swing and miss or chase all that much.
Future Role: So far Ralphy has caught one game as a professional, none since 2023 and also spent two games in left this year. Everything else has either been as a first baseman or designated hitter. The offensive potential here is as high as anyone’s and I’d bet on the move to first base being a permanent one since he’s been crushing the ball in the lower minors. The bat here is always going to be the carrying tool though and he could move relatively briskly through the minors if they elect to keep him at first and/or DH.
Tool Grades: Hit (60), Power (60) Defense (40), Arm (60), Speed (30)
Sebastian Walcott, SS Rangers - 50 OFP
Acquired: Signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2023 for $3,200,000.
Report: Walcott has immense upside but he’s also one of the riskiest profiles in this event. He strikes out at a near 28% clip which is actually an improvement over a 30% strikeout rate he has been rocking over his last two stops. The power is plus and the raw is plus-plus, but none of that matters as much if he’s not making enough contact. His power comes from his twitchy, strong wiry build and his top end bat speed. He’s going to have to adjust to the pitching as he climbs the ladder, and he’s struggling with recognizing spin which is an age appropriate problem and we need to see how he adjusts. The Rangers have pushed him fairly aggressively, so they believe he can make the necessary changes.
Future Role: Walcott is probably going to play third base as he climbs the ladder due to his physical projection but he’s also had some lapses at shortstop and made some fairly routine errors. The arm will play on the left side and he should eventually be average or better no matter where he plays once he cleans up the actions and the focus. At the end of the day the ceiling here is the sort of stuff you dream about and the issues are all things you typically see from a guy that’s only 18 years old.
Tool Grades: Hit (45), Power (60) Defense (45), Arm (60), Speed (55)
Cole Young, SS Mariners - 50 OFP
Acquired: Drafted in the 1st round, 21st overall of the 2022 draft from North Allegheny HS in Pennsylvania
Report: What Young lacks in flash and pizazz and loud tools he makes up for with his on-base skills and overall high floor. Young has a plus hit tool and strong pitch recognition skills and he’s putting them on display in Double-A. He uses all fields and has a true knack for finding the barrel. The power is mostly gap to gap but he is more than capable of leaving the yard to the pull side. Defensively he’s going to stick up the middle and on the dirt. He’s steady and shows great instincts in the field, but his arm is a little stretched at short, making him an ideal second baseman.
Future Role: Young is going to hit at or near the top of the lineup and will be a pest for opposing teams due to his contact, approach and stolen base skills. He’s likely going to hit somewhere between 12-18 homers a year at peak, with 15-20 stolen bases and strong ratios. Young will be in Seattle at some point in 2025.
Tool Grades: Hit (60), Power (40) Defense (55), Arm (45), Speed (60)
Jaison Chourio, OF Guardians - 50 OFP
Acquired: Signed out of Venezuela in 2022 for $1,200,000.
Report: Jaison Chourio has had a very solid year in Single-A, picking up where he left off in 2023 showing an excellent approach and gap to gap power which should soon grow into the over the fence variety. He’s not as polished as his brother Jackson, but there aren’t many 20 year olds that are making their debut either, so it’s a bit unfair to keep making the comparison but he’s gotta be used to that by now. He’s a hit over power type with a good feel for finding the barrel. He’s a switch hitter and the frame makes it easy to project power from both sides. It’s going to be a slower burn than most guys in this event, but Chourio is trending upwards.
Future Role: Chourio projects to be more of a top of the lineup, everyday centerfielder. He will get on base at a strong clip, which is what he’s done at every minor league stop thus far. He’s a plus runner and sharp on the bases, and a strong defender, providing other elements to his game. He will eventually add that power tool to the belt and when he does he can be a perennial all-star.
Tool Grades: Hit (55), Power (45) Defense (55), Arm (50), Speed (60)
Max Clark, OF Tigers - 50 OFP
Acquired: Drafted in the 1st round, 3rd overall of the 2023 draft from Franklin HS in Indiana
Report: Clark seems like a very divisive prospect and he really shouldn’t be. After all he didn’t draft himself third overall over guys like Langford and even Walker Jenkins, which seems to be the biggest complaint. There are also some concerns over the power projections for Clark, and they are understandable. He’s a heavy ground ball hitter so while I think on pure impact ability I think he can be a 20-25 homer threat, the inability to add consistent loft likely makes him more of a 15-18 homer guy? Adding loft can be one of the more difficult things for hitters so it's far from a sure thing. The rest of his offensive game is solid, he makes contact, draws a good amount of walks and will be a top of the lineup type guy when he develops. Defensively he’s above-average to plus in center with a plus arm, and obviously his plus wheels are an asset on that side of the ball as well.
Future Role: There’s some risk here in the profile due to the lack of above-average projectable power, but everything else for Clark is trending in the positive direction. If that power does come he can be the rare five tool player, and to take it a step further than that he can be a guy with five plus tools. He’s lowered his hands some in an effort to get to that power so we will just have to see when he escapes High-A.
Tool Grades: Hit (55), Power (45) Defense (60), Arm (70), Speed (70)
Gavin Cross, OF Royals - 45 OFP
Acquired: Drafted in the 1st round, 9th overall of the 2022 draft from Virginia Tech
Report: When Cross was drafted ninth overall in 2022 he was supposed to be the safe college bat, but a rough stint at Quad Cities changed that. He hit .203/.298/.378 last year with all but two of his games in High-A. He was sent to Double-A in 2024 and it’s gone much better across the board. He’s hitting for more power, striking out less and walking more. As it turns out you can blame his down 2023 on a tick-borne illness called Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever. With that behind him his prospect stock has rebounded and things are looking up.
Future Role: His signature plate skills and above-average power have returned, and Cross may even be ready for the next challenge after this stint in Double-A. Cross looks like a league average right fielder where his above-average arm will play. He won’t need a platoon partner either, and has separated himself from the other Royals upper minors bats.
Tool Grades: Hit (50), Power (50) Defense (55), Arm (60), Speed (50)
Spencer Jones, OF Yankees - 50 OFP
Acquired: Drafted in the 1st round, 25th overall in the 2022 draft from Vanderbilt
Report: We saw what it could look like this spring when Spencer Jones put it all together and was mashing everything in sight. He’s a unique prospect with the raw tools to put up some impressive stat lines, but the strikeouts are the wet blanket. His chase rates are poor and a concern. He hits the ball harder than pretty much everyone playing in this game, but he also lacks the launch to fully tap into the plus-plus power. For his size he’s such an athletic freak and he could put up some 25/25 or even 30/30 seasons if he makes enough contact. It’s unlikely, but that’s the ceiling here.
Future Role: For Jones it all comes down to the hit tool and health. A neck injury delayed the start of his season by a few weeks and also cut his spring training short. He’s come back for Double-A Somerset and has struck out in just under 37% of his at-bats. Jones will always have higher strikeout rates, but he needs to get them down closer to 30% to have success. I’m rooting for him because it could be really entertaining if he does.
Tool Grades: Hit (40), Power (60), Defense (50), Arm (50), Speed (60)
Chandler Simpson, OF Rays - 45 OFP
Acquired: Drafted in Competitive Balance Round B, 70th overall in the 2022 draft from Georgia Tech
Report: Simpson is a fun throwback. He’s a slash and dash hitter who is already running towards first base at the point of contact. He’s not trying to hit the ball in the air, instead he’s looking to find a hole somewhere with a groundball. He’s one of the fastest runners in the sport so a lot of the weak contact and mishits can actually turn into hits. He knows who he is and is allergic to hitting the ball in the air. Last season he led the minors with 94 steals, and this year he’s leading the minor leagues once again. Simpson has one career homer to his name and it was an inside the parker. He’s also a plus center because his speed simply allows him to cover so much ground. His routes do need some improvement though but he has incredible speed to bounce back.
Future Role: Simpson is a rabbit by true definition of the word, and while that is an exciting style of play I’m a little concerned he doesn’t have enough power to keep pitchers from just challenging him. The hit tool here has also improved enough to where he may not have to worry about that as much because of how often he simply puts the bat on the ball. If he gets on base he’s likely to be on third very quickly.
Tool Grades: Hit (50), Power (20), Defense (60), Arm (30), Speed (80)
National League Roster
Pitchers
Bubba Chandler, RHP Pirates - 55 OFP
Acquired: Drafted in the 3rd round, 72nd overall in the 2021 draft from North Oconee HS in Georgia
Report: The Pirates have developed a nice pitching factory and Chandler is the poster boy. Chandler was a very different development story than someone like Skenes who came through the Pirates system in a flash and did not need much development. Chandler was a switch-hitting, two-way multi-sport athlete who was finally just focusing on strictly one thing and the Pirates have done a fantastic job of taming that athleticism and funneling it to the mound. He is sitting in the 92-96 range with the fastball and it gets more life on the lower end of the velocity scale. He heavily leans on his upper 80s slider as his top secondary, and he will also mix in a changeup that has shown promise that he needs to trust more. Chandler is currently pitching in Double-A. He’s a sneaky candidate to touch 100 in a short one inning burst.
Future Role: Chandler projects as a mid-rotation arm but there’s a chance at more than that if his changeup becomes a viable third pitch. He learned how to command his secondaries in 2023 and can now drop those pitches in for strikes when needed. The delivery is clean and he lacks much, if any bullpen risk at this point. He projects as a solid number three starter.
Pitch Grades: Fastball (60), Slider (55), Changeup (50), Command (50)
Chase Dollander, RHP Rockies - 55 OFP
Acquired: Drafted in the 1st round, 9th overall in the 2023 draft out of the University of Tennessee.
Report: Dollander possesses the ideal pitcher’s frame; lean, strong, and athletic. The delivery is picturesque, and repeatable. He moves well, its a clean operation and he really gets down the mound with above-average extension from a ¾ arm slot giving him a low release point. His primary pitch is his fastball. It sits 94-96 and he touches 98-99 with regularity. It eats up in the zone and generates a high rate of swing-and-miss. His best secondary is his high-spin slider that has returned to being a plus pitch and one of the main reasons for his resurgence. He will throw his changeup exclusively against left-handers and will also throw a curveball. The command has improved as well and if you remove the Coors Field element that lingers in the background he might be the top pitching prospect in baseball.
Future Role: Dollander looks fantastic and gives the Rockies an arm with true number one potential which is exciting. He misses bats at a high rate with his entire arsenal and throws strikes. He looks just like the version of himself that was the SEC pitcher of the year in 2022 as opposed to the one that struggled as a junior in 2023. He didn’t make his professional debut until 2024 and the Rockies are being rewarded for their patience. There’s a chance Dollander has three plus pitches when it’s all said and done, and it’s a true top of the rotation profile.
Pitch Grades: Fastball (60), Slider (55), Changeup (50), Command (50)
Tink Hence, RHP Cardinals - 55 OFP
Acquired: Drafted in Competitive Balance Round B, 63rd overall in the 2020 draft from Watson Chapel HS in Arkansas.
Report: Tink Hence was having a strong 2023 but he struggled after his promotion to Double-A. Naturally he was sent to Double-A again to open 2024 and he’s flipped the script. He’s looked sharp and the velocity that would taper off as he got deeper in starts last year is staying with him longer this year as he’s also working deeper in games. For the first time in his career Hence has gone six innings in a start this year, which he’s now done multiple times and he even turned in a seven inning start to end April. The Cardinals have taken it easy with Hence to this point and they are getting rewarded for their patience. He’s sitting 95-96 and holding it deeper in games. His fastball is a swing and miss pitch up in the zone and at that velocity band. He runs into some trouble when it’s his typical 95-96. His slider is his primary weapon against right-handers, and the changeup is his primary secondary against lefties. Both pitches rely on the fastball being 95-96 and are at their best when they are used as chase pitches.
Future Role: It’s been a strong developmental year for Hence and he’s managed to check the boxes showing his durability, but he’s only thrown three innings since the end of May due to some cramping issues. He will likely not pitch in the event as he’s working back into game action. He looks like a solid mid-rotation starter with a few seasons of number two like production.
Pitch Grades: Fastball (55), Slider (55), Changeup (55), Curveball (45), Command (50)
Rhett Lowder, RHP Reds - 50 OFP
Acquired: Drafted in the 1st round, 7th overall in the 2023 draft out of Wake Forest University.
Report: Rhett Lowder was drafted seventh overall in 2023 and didn’t make his professional debut until this season but is already moved up to Double-A. He’s run into some issues being too hittable in the Southern League. Lowder is a strike thrower that fills up the zone with all three pitches. His fastball is 93-95 and he can touch 97 with life. He has a two-seamer that’s a few ticks below his four-seamer and works well off of the changeup that is 5-to-7 MPH off of the two-seamer. His slider is his best secondary at 85-88 with good depth. He has a soldi arsenal but is more floor than ceiling here and should move quickly through the minors. Wake Forest does a tremendous job maximizing their arms and it helps them move quickly through pro ball.
Future Role: Lowder is a solid mid-rotation arm and he could move through the minors quickly with his four-pitch mix and plus overall command. He lacks the ceiling of most arms on this list but makes up for it with his athleticism and plus command. He sequences well and can throw any of his four pitches for strikes in any count.
Pitch Grades: Fastball (55), Slider (55), Changeup (55), Command (60)
Quinn Mathews, LHP Cardinals - 50 OFP
Acquired: Drafted in the 4th round, 122nd overall in the 2023 draft out of Stanford.
Report: Mathews will probably always be most famous for striking out 16 hitters in a 156-pitch complete game in his NCAA tournament game against Texas. He’s doing a good job of trying to change the narrative with a very strong start to 2024. The stuff has taken a jump forward and credit goes to Mathews for strong off-season work. It could be the benefits of pitching once a week now and also having more managed work loads. When he was drafted he was viewed as more of a pitchability left-hander that could be a back of the rotation type arm, but now he’s added velocity. His fastball has become a bit of an outlier, not many others can match his mid 90s velocity, low VAA and high iVB combo. The slider gets whiffs at a high clip and his changeup is a pitch he is confident in and he will use it against right-handed bats. He has risen all the way to Double-A after not making his professional debut until 2024.
Future Role: Mathews has been one of the better stories of the year transforming himself from what was perceived to be a soft-tossing back end starter into a higher end starter with serious swing and miss upside. The fastball is a big one, averaging 94-95 with those unicorn traits and it will carry him through the minors. He has the most swing and miss upside in the Cardinals system.
Pitch Grades: Fastball (70), Slider (50), Changeup (50), Command (60)
Noble Meyer, RHP Marlins - 50 OFP
Acquired: Drafted in the 1st round, 10th overall in the 2023 draft from Jesuit HS in Oregon.
Report: Meyer was the top prep arm taken in the 2023 draft and he has already experienced some ups and downs during his limited professional career. In April he couldn’t throw strikes and was walking for too many hitters. He’s drastically trimmed his walk rate every month and while his command is still fringy it is much better than the unplayable level it was at to start the year. It’s not unusual for taller arms to struggle with command at times, but the 6’5” Meyer is in good control of his frame and repeats well. His best pitch is his sinker which he uses to both sides of the plate. Not sure how intentional it is all the time but he was running the sinker in against right-handers, making for an uncomfortable experience. He gets a healthy amount of armside run on the pitch and that’s the main reason its so tough to command. His slider is his best secondary. It’s typically around 2700-2800 RPMs but has been higher at times. It has tight, horizontal break and it will be a true out pitch when he gets his sinker aligned. His changeup has the armside fade but otherwise it’s inconsistent. It should be an average pitch, maybe even better than that with time. His mechanics are ok, he falls off the mound hard towards the first base side at times which can hinder his command. There’s some work to do here, and he’s not as polished as originally projected, but he does have some nasty stuff.
Future Role: Meyer has the ingredients here to possibly be in the conversation for best starting pitching prospect in all of baseball eventually. The frame, the nastiness of his sinker and slider, and what his changeup and command could become is something fun to speculate on. He’s not there yet though. Give him some time.
Pitch Grades: Fastball (60), Slider (60), Changeup (45), Command (40)
Robby Snelling, LHP Padres - 45 OFP
Acquired: Drafted in Competitive Balance Round A, 39th overall in the 2022 draft from McQueen HS in Nevada.
Report: A two sport star in high school, Snelling was also a highly recruited linebacker. The Padres saw the potential here and paid him $3 million, one million over slot, to sign him away from a commitment at LSU. His first professional season, which was also his first focusing exclusively on baseball, went about as well as one could hope, blowing through both levels of A-ball and getting to Double-A and pitching to a 1.82 ERA in over 100 innings for the season. Snelling is a big dude, pretty advanced physically for his age with a thick and muscular lower half. Snelling gets the fastball up to 95-96 with regularity and that comes with good ride up in the zone. His best secondary is his curveball and he has also recently introduced a slider to his arsenal. His changeup is a firm offering that is still developing. Snelling’s command has backed up this year and he’s also been way to hittable at Double-A.
Future Role: The Padres have been pushing Snelling aggressively and while it worked out well in 2023 he has stumbled a bit in 2024. I don’t love either of his breaking balls and don’t think they will be future swing and miss offerings consistently enough. He looks like a solid SP 4 to me with his two breaking balls and changeup in addition to mid-90s heat. He’s a bulldog on the mound though and is very vocal and animated at times.
Pitch Grades: Fastball (55), Curveball (55), Changeup (45), Slider (45) Command (45)
Brandon Sproat, RHP Mets - 50 OFP
Acquired: Drafted in the 2nd round, 56th overall in the 2023 draft out of the University of Florida.
Report: Yet another 2023 draft pick that didn’t make his professional debut until 2024. Sproat has a big fastball that sits 95-96 and can touch 100. He had this big fastball while at the University of Florida but it wasn’t optimized to miss bats like it is now. His changeup is his best secondary in my opinion and it gets a lot of swing and miss due to the arm side fade. He commands his slider well and it's an above-average pitch in its own right. He still working on the finer points of sequencing and building up stamina. He’s been able to go seven innings a handful of times this year and run up the pitch counts, which has been a goal of his.
Future Role: The Mets liked Sproat so much they drafted him twice and I think it has worked out well for both sides to this point. The Mets have altered the fastball shape and tapped into Sproat’s athleticism and he looks like a viable long term starter going forward. He has a deep four-pitch mix and his command has been solid.
Pitch Grades: Fastball (60), Changeup (60), Slider (55), Curveball (45), Command (50)
Thomas White, LHP Marlins - 50 OFP
Acquired: Drafted in Competitive Balance Round A, 35th overall in the 2023 draft out of Phillips Academy in Massachusetts.
Report: Thomas White came into the draft as one of the more accomplished amateur left-handers in recent memory. He’s a tall, projectable left-hander with a big fastball that can touch 97 with carry. His curveball is a plus offering but needs some refinement. The delivery is solid and the young lefty repeats it well. He’s doing everything a young lefty his age needs to do and it’s easy to dream on a future one-two punch with White and Noble Meyer.
Future Role: White has the ingredients to be one of the top pitching prospects in the game very soon if he isn’t already. The tall lanky lefty is sitting on a pair of plus offerings and also throws an average changeup. White has climbed all the way to High-A so far in 2024 despite fringy command, but in watching him and speaking to contacts the command is likely improving as he moves up and matures. White has solid mid-rotation upside here with a chance at being a number two.
Pitch Grades: Fastball (60), Curveball (60), Changeup (50), Command (45)
Hitters
Drake Baldwin, C Braves - 40 OFP
Acquired: Drafted in the 3rd round, 96th overall in the 2022 draft out of Missouri State University.
Report: Baldwin has emerged as a serious pop-up prospect for the Braves. The Missouri State product has a solid offensive approach and above-average pop. He has built a reputation for hitting fastballs well but he struggles against the soft stuff.
Future Role: Baldwin has moved quickly since getting drafted in 2022 and now finds himself on the doorstep to the big leagues. He’s a quality defender but needs to improve his throwing still. Offensively he has a nice combination of on-base skills and power, and as a left-handed bat he can provide slightly more value offensively. He’s in Triple-A now and is just waiting for the call.
Tool Grades: Hit (45), Power (50), Defense (50), Arm (50), Speed (30)
Thayron Liranzo, C Dodgers - 50 OFP
Acquired: Signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2021 for $30,000.
Report: Liranzo arrived on the scene as a prospect after a breakout 2023 in which he hit for average and power while also drawing rave reviews for how well he was handling the pitching staff while at Rancho. The switch-hitting catcher is very much power over hit and led the California League with 24 homers last season. He has shown more power from the left-side of the plate so far in his career. He’s an average defender with a plus arm that lacks consistency. It’s a crowded situation when talking about the catching options for the Dodgers but Liranzo did enough in 2023 to separate himself from the pack. He’s come back down to earth as a hitter in 2024 but he’s still getting on-base and hitting for some power.
Future Role: Liranzo will ultimately go as far as the hit tool and contact abilities take him. He’s been a little sluggish so far in 2024 but he’s still getting on-base and hitting for some power which gives you an idea of what he’s capable of. It’s strength based power so it’s fairly sticky from year to year
Tool Grades: Hit (40), Power (50), Defense (50), Arm (60), Speed (30)
Ethan Salas, C Padres - 50 OFP
Acquired: Signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2023 for $5,600,000.
Report: Ethan Salas started his professional career in Single-A at the age of 16, which is still crazy to even think about and he was also one of the league’s more productive players, hitting .267/.350/.487 in 48 games. He was aggressively bumped to High-A after that, and played in nine games before being promoted once again to Double-A. His season ended after a knee sprain after just nine games and even though he didn’t hit much after leaving the California League he was still being trusted to handle the staffs at those levels. Salas at 16 and 17 years old was playing plus defense while also handling velocity and hitting for power.
Future Role: Salas was assigned to the Midwest League to start this season and he didn’t turn 18 until June. The numbers aren’t pretty and he’s looked overmatched but this was a guy who hit nine homers when he should’ve been a sophomore in high school, so it’s impossible to evaluate him without factoring that in to the equation. Despite the 2024 struggles this is still someone who can become an everyday big league catcher at 20 or 21 which doesn’t really ever happen. At his peak he could be a high OBP, 20-homer backstop that plays plus defense. Every team in the league would take that.
Tool Grades: Hit (45), Power (50), Defense (60), Arm (60), Speed (30)
Cam Collier, 3B Reds - 45 OFP
Acquired: Drafted in the 1st round, 18th overall in the 2022 draft out of Chipola JC.
Report: By all accounts Collier had a disappointing season in the Florida State League in 2023 but much like Ethan Salas we need to apply proper context here. Collier graduated high school after his Sophomore season and then enrolled at Chipola where he played one season, and did one season on the Cape, before getting selected by the Reds. He played all of 2023 as an 18 year-old. He started off scorching hot in 2024 but has since cooled back down, but you can see the potential here. Offensively he has shown above-average power to the pull-side and plus contact abilities, it's just that the swing lacks consistency. He also doesn’t lift the ball enough to fully tap into the power and he may also be out growing third base, which puts even more pressure on the bat.
Future Role: Collier is sort of at a crossroads despite just being 19 years old. His mobility is waning as he’s filling out but his offensive production also hasn’t matched the tools to this point. There’s still time to turn it all around and show off the potential above-average hit and power that he could have, but it’s difficult to project those as there are multiple issues standing in his way. Issues such as pounding the ball into the ground, striking out a little more than advertised, rapidly filling out and having to move to first base, inconsistent swing paths, etc. The bat will be challenged even more if he needs to move to first base so he needs to maintain that athleticism.
Tool Grades: Hit (45), Power (50), Defense (40), Arm (60), Speed (40)
Deyvison De Los Santos, 3B Diamondbacks - 45 OFP
Acquired: Signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2019 for $200,000.
Report: Deyvison De Los Santos was selected in the Rule 5 draft by the Cleveland Guardians but was returned to the Diamondbacks late in spring training after failing to make the club. It was a worthwhile gamble because all he’s done in his minor league career is hit, and hit for power. His raw power and exit velocities are some of the best in all of the minor leagues but he had some previous issues with pitch selection and hitting the ball on the ground. He’s improved both of those metrics in 2024 and has been one of the most productive hitters in the minors bringing a .331/.380/.650 slashline with 27 homers split between Double-A and Triple-A so far in 2024.
Future Role: De Los Santos is just 21 years old and appears ready for a big league look with the Diamondbacks. He put in some work this off-season and made himself leaner and more athletic and he’s being rewarded by having the best season of his professional career. Defensively he’s still likely going to move to first base, while he’s leaner and more athletic he’s still just error prone and still has below-average speed and lacks quickness. He just plain mashes though and that’s really all that matters at first base.
Tool Grades: Hit (60), Power (60), Defense (40), Arm (50), Speed (40)
Bryce Eldridge, 1B Giants - 50 OFP
Acquired: Drafted in the 1st round, 16th overall in the 2023 draft out of Madison HS in Virginia.
Report: Eldridge is massive, standing 6’7” and was a true two way prospect coming out of high school. The Giants selected him as a two-way guy but those plans quickly changed after seeing him hit at the Complex. His combination of power and his ability to control the zone are his best assets. The power is massive, and he showed it off right away hitting five homers in just 16 games out at the complex. While I was out in Arizona covering the Fall League instructs had just wrapped up and there was significant buzz surrounding him and his power potential.
Future Role: Eldridge is one of the most exciting young power bats in the minor leagues and he’s been as advertised thus far in the lower minors. The power is real but he’s also going to strike out. It’s just a matter of managing the strikeouts. Most of his struggles came against non-fastballs which is typical for a young hitter. He also showed strong chase rates which bodes well for his future on-base skills. He’s probably going to play first base full time due to his size, and it looks like that’s already started to happen for him in the minors this year, and there also won’t be any real speed component to his game. It’s plus power though with plus-plus raw, so you’ll take some of the limitations if he can max out on the power.
Tool Grades: Hit (50), Power (60), Defense (45), Arm (55), Speed (30)
Termarr Johnson, 2B Pirates - 45 OFP
Acquired: Drafted in the 1st round, 4th overall in the 2022 draft from Mays HS in Georgia.
Report: Termarr Johnson had some brief 1-1 buzz in his draft year and many thought that he could go first overall to the Orioles. He was sold as having one of the best prep hit tools we’ve seen and was getting double-plus hit tool grades as an amateur but those grades look a little silly now. Only one time has he hit higher than .245 in a minor league stop and that was a 14-game sample in 2022 in the Florida State League where he hit .275. While the hit tool may not have shown up Johnson is still producing high on-base percentages and has pretty consistently been over a .400 OBP despite hitting in the .230-.240 range. His current 17.5% walk rate is the lowest he’s ever had in his career. There’s a little passivity here that’s certainly spiking the walk and strikeout rates but he generally makes contact at a solid clip. Defensively he looks locked into second base. The arm won’t be an asset on the left side of the infield and he’s got a thicker lower half so he lacks the range for shortstop.
Future Role: Despite the batting averages not really being there Johnson has still been a very productive minor league hitter because he gets on-base and has some pull-side power. He’s probably a 20-25 homer bat at his peak while running strong on-base percentages. If he hits .260 he should post big league OBP’s up over .400 and will also chip in some steals. Not many, but he’s been able to pick his spots at times. He’s dealt with some nagging injuries also so that needs to be said. I still like him as an above-average offensive player.
Tool Grades: Hit (50), Power (50), Defense (50), Arm (45), Speed (45)
Aidan Miller, SS Phillies - 50 OFP
Acquired: Drafted in the 1st round, 27th overall in the 2023 draft from Mitchell HS in Florida.
Report: All Aidan Miller has done throughout his career is hit and with the full benefit of hindsight it is a little shocking someone with his amateur track record lasted until pick 27. Miller has superb feel for the strike zone, plus bat speed and strong contact and power metrics. He’s checking every box. He had a very strong professional debut at the complex but did slow down a bit in the Florida State League. He was assigned back to the Florida State League to start 2024 and he’s already been promoted due to his production. He had an OBP of over .401 while popping 21 extra base hits in 39 games in notoriously tough offensive parks. He makes excellent swing decisions and is a solid bet to contend for batting titles in the future. He’s going to have to add some loft to his flat swing to fully reach that power potential.
Future Role: Miller is likely going to shift to third base as he ages and adds to his frame. He already has the plus arm strength and I’m confident enough to say that the bat will play. Miller is a solid bet to be an above-average offensive contributor wherever he ends up. Hitters this talented and that possess this strong of feel and instincts don’t come around all that often.
Tool Grades: Hit (60), Power (55), Defense (50), Arm (60), Speed (50)
Jeral Perez, 2B Dodgers - 45 OFP
Acquired: Signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2022 for $397,500.
Report: Perez burst onto the scene in 2023, mashing eleven homers at the complex in just over 50 games. He’s got a projectable frame that should add more size and strength and posted strong power numbers while also displaying a strong plate approach. He didn’t fare as well offensively after a late 2023 California League look but showed excellent plate skills there too which have also carried over into 2024. He’s also still hitting for power while working the gaps as well. It’s been an impressive start to pro ball for Perez.
Future Role: Perez is probably the guy in those showcase event that I’m most interested in seeing because I haven’t seen much of him coming into this game. The numbers and feedback on him have all been impressive and while he isn’t the most tooled up prospect you’ll find he’s also not really lacking anywhere either. A well rounded prospect. Seems like he’s more likely to end up at third base but he’s been playing mostly second base for now.
Tool Grades: Hit (50), Power (55), Defense (50), Arm (50), Speed (50)
Cooper Pratt, SS Brewers - 50 OFP
Acquired: Drafted in the 6th round, 182nd overall in the 2023 draft from Magnolia Heights HS in Mississippi.
Report: Pratt is a big physical presence and was an impressive find by the Brewers in the sixth round. They signed him for $1.35 million and he made them look smart by producing at the complex by hitting .356/.426/.444 right out of the gate. Pratt has a knack for finding the barrel and controlling the zone but the lack of power this year for someone his size is unusual.
Future Role: I do believe there is at least average power here but it doesn’t stick out in game yet. The high level swing decisions and contact rate combined with his 6’4” frame are all signs that the power is coming. He’s not the toolsiest guy but he’s a steady infielder that should stick at short. There will always be a faster guy with a quicker first step or a better arm, but Pratt is just solid and his high baseball acumen really helps him on the defensive side as well. He could simply outgrow shortstop though and if that is the case he will just slide over to third. Not meant to be a hot take here or anything but when the power arrives Pratt could be a top ten prospect in all of baseball.
Tool Grades: Hit (55), Power (45), Defense (50), Arm (55), Speed (50)
Matt Shaw, 3B Cubs - 55 OFP
Acquired: Drafted in the 1st round, 13th overall in the 2023 draft out of the University of Maryland
Report: Matt Shaw got a brief taste of Double-A to end last year with a 15-game sample to close out the season. He was sent back there for 2024 and he’s still there, hitting .247/.352/.416 which is admittedly a bit disappointing for someone we thought could move quickly and play a role on the 2024 Chicago Cubs. He’s still finding ways to produce, and he’s still far from a zero with the bat as he’s hit ten homers and chipped in 20 steals already. He’s seen his walk rates spike, which comes from swinging the bat less and becoming more selective. Shaw was a swing early and often guy and he’s toned that down significantly this season and clearly has a directive to work counts before attacking. He’s a high energy dude that’s also played through some minor ailments all season so I’m still very much in.
Future Role: Drafted as a second baseman, Shaw has shifted to third as his primary position this year due to an organizational need on the big club and he’s looked so good defensively that he may just stay there long term. Shaw was advertised as a quick mover and after hitting Double-A in his draft year it might be a little disappointing for him to still be there, but as we know development isn’t linear and he’s still likely to be a big league contributor for most of 2025. The Cubs are on the fringes of the playoff race right now and if they get back in the mix they still have a need at third, so this book isn’t closed on 2024 yet. There’s still some big time skills here and he’s learned to control the zone and could be a 20/20 dude or more with strong on-base skills.
Tool Grades: Hit (55), Power (50), Defense (55), Arm (45), Speed (50)
Justin Crawford, OF PHI - 50 OFP
Acquired: Drafted in the 1st round, 17th overall in the 2022 draft from Bishop Gorman HS in Nevada.
Report: Not much has changed with Crawford since we saw him in this event last season. He still has that strong offensive foundation with his above-average hit tool and double-plus speed. He has improved his launch angle and is hitting less balls on the ground now, and we’ve seen a direct impact on his power numbers as a result. He already has six homers this season which doubled his total homers from last year and we are roughly 50% into his season. The bottom hand dominant swing still tells me there’s more power here if he is able to continue to add some loft. He’s still tall and skinny with projection in the frame and seems likely to stick in center despite the fringy arm.
Future Role: The improved power numbers add even another way Crawford can impact the game. The double-plus speed and solid contact skills work hand-in-hand and he seems destined to find a spot at the top of a lineup. Defensively he projects to be above-average and
Tool Grades: Hit (55), Power (40), Defense (55), Arm (45), Speed (70)
Dylan Crews, OF Nationals - 60 OFP
Acquired: Drafted in the 1st round, 2nd overall in the 2023 draft out of LSU.
Report: One of the headliners of this showcase event, Dylan Crews has climbed all the way to Triple-A and is on the cusp of his big league debut. He’s done a terrific job of managing the strikeouts which were a big story early in the season. His strikeout rate is down under 20% in Triple-A and was under 24% during his Double-A stint. It has taken him some time to adjust but he’s been hitting well since. He’s been working on pulling the ball in Triple-A and while the results aren’t where he would like, he’s been more effective. He’s hitting the ball on the ground a tad bit more than you’d like to see as well but we are dealing with a 20 game sample in Triple-A, so I’m not concerned. It’s obviously preferable if he’s elevating with more consistency but Crews is going to be an extra base hit machine either way. His hit tool is above-average as he is an aggressive hitter. He will attack pitches early in the count and while the in-zone miss rate is a little higher than you want from an elite hitter he does make up for it by rarely expanding the zone. He hunts fastballs though and looks to do damage. When he connects he often does, with routinely high exit velocities. Defensively he should stick in center due to his plus wheels. His reads and jumps are solid and his arm is plus.
Future Role: Crews likely isn’t going to be the franchise cornerstone player he’s expected to be, but can still be a very good core piece for the Nationals moving forward. I think there are a few things he needs to iron out offensively which I discussed above for him to fully reach his ceiling. We need to see more games with this improved pull rate, and at the same time he needs to get back to elevating more as well. He’s more likely a 25-30 homer bat because of the lack of pull and the groundball issues, which is a step down from the 30-40 homer bat that some think he could become. That’s obviously still a very good player.
Tool Grades: Hit (55), Power (60), Defense (50), Arm (60), Speed (60)
Druw Jones, OF Diamondbacks - 45 OFP
Acquired: Drafted in the 1st round, 2nd overall in the 2022 draft from Wesleyan HS in Georgia.
Report: It has been quite the roller coaster for Druw Jones so far after getting picked second overall in 2022. He’s dealt with some serious injuries as well as some nagging ones and also essentially had to rebuild his swing on the fly. It’s an unusual development path for someone so vital to their organization but these are the type of expectations that come with being the number two pick in the draft. When you watch him you still see it and very quickly get why he was drafted so highly, and that doesn’t even include the bloodlines aspect of it. The elite bat speed is still there and honestly was the primary thing saving him for a while. The decisions are still solid as well but mechanically he was so out of sync he needed every bit of bat speed to get into hitting position. He’s been severely off-balance in his swing and most of the early at-bats had his upper and lower halves almost fighting each other and going in different directions. Teh groundball rate spiked because he wasn’t using his lower half and just rolling over balls. The groundball rate is still very high now but the swing has improved. He’s hitting the ball hard consistently and can still go get it defensively so there’s a clear path to the big leagues ahead of him still.
Future Role: Putting Jones in the fish bowl of an event like this probably isn’t something I would do with someone who has been going through the ups and downs like Jones has, but on the flip side it does speak highly of the kid that the organization believes he can handle it. Jones' focus for the rest of 2024 should be getting healthy and getting the swing back to where it was as an amateur. I’m not sure how much the mechanical issues and health issues have been related, if at all, but it wouldn’t surprise me if we find out later on that there was a link there. Getting the swing back will make the difference on whether or not he’s an everyday guy or just a defensive first fourth outfielder.
Tool Grades: Hit (45), Power (55), Defense (70), Arm (60), Speed (60)
Kirby Snead and the Benefits of the Top of the Zone
Overcoming the Odds: How Zach Joyce Found His Way Back to Baseball
As fans, we often forget that some things are bigger than baseball for players. They play a sport we all know and love, and there is an expectation that nothing else should matter as much as the game. But players go through many of the day-to-day struggles we find ourselves facing. After all, they are human beings just like us.
We often highlight successful journeys of players who overcome the odds of being a late-round draft, finding something that made their game click late in their career, or bouncing back from injuries. Zach Joyce’s journey back to baseball has less to do with finding newfound levels to his game or bouncing back from an injury but more with finding a place in his community and meaning in himself and his life.
Joyce had a successful baseball career in high school and at Walters State Community College, which led him to transfer to the University of Tennessee to play baseball alongside his twin brother Ben. Adversity greeted Joyce as soon as he stepped through the door. In 2020, he underwent Tommy John surgery and ended up stepping away from baseball before he even had a chance to put on a uniform.
The surgery wasn’t the main reason he stepped away, but it was an even bigger reason. Zach was diagnosed with clinical depression and anxiety during the COVID-19 pandemic. A decision that put himself and his well-being over the game he has known and loved for his entire life.
“It was almost out of necessity, to be honest,” Joyce said. “I knew at that point I was dealing with pretty severe anxiety and depression. I was having panic attacks basically every day that would cause me to be at the point of passing out and I was still having trouble opening up about it.”
Unable to figure out what was leading to the anxiety and depression, he felt that baseball was part of the reason for his feelings.
“I kind of just wanted something to blame it on, and at that point, I chose baseball, but I slowly realized that it happens to a lot of people,” Joyce said. The coaches at Tennessee were super supportive the entire time and were only focused on me getting better and getting help. My girlfriend also dealt with anxiety, and she was extremely supportive and helpful, as were my brother and my parents.”
Having that support system and those around him who let him know it was okay not to be okay gave him the freedom to focus on himself. As it is for most people, it wasn’t an easy journey to overcome, and battles continue to this day. It took Joyce seeking out resources to help him get through what he was going through.
“As an athlete at UT we actually had a few resources we could use for mental health. I got connected with a psychiatrist as well as a therapist and began taking medicine to start helping alongside that,” Joyce said. “The biggest resource I found was just opening up to people close to me. Obviously not all at once and not right away, but over time I was able to be transparent about it. It is an extremely vulnerable and uncomfortable feeling but it does help so much. Finding things that helped me such as working out and even going hiking on my own.”
Joyce touches on a huge aspect of overcoming mental health battles... Vulnerability. Not just the vulnerability to seek out the resources he needed to help him but the vulnerability to talk to others about what he was going through. We’ve made significant progress as a society, but unfortunately, stigma still exists around getting treatment for mental health issues. Because of that stigma, many people often don’t seek out care or talk to others about how they are feeling because of the fear of being judged.
Zach was able to overcome something that was uncomfortable and it became one of the biggest resources he had. Finding that comfort to be able to confide in others and continuing to utilize the tools and resources he had led to Zach eventually working his way back to baseball. He eventually enrolled back at the University of Tennessee. When Zach stepped away, it wasn’t a priority to get back to baseball, but he kept itching to get back on the mound
“The first year and a half after I stepped away, I didn’t watch a single baseball game. I was basically just a regular college student, even working jobs and doing internships,” Joyce said. “Then when Ben came back from TJ and started throwing again the second year, I went to games to support him. I remember having to get up and walk around the first game I went to because I was itching so badly to get back out there.”
Missing the feeling of 1-on-1 competitions, seeing his twin brother Ben out there throwing again after TJ and watching the team atmosphere on the field fired Zach up to play baseball again. And on February 19, 2023, Joyce debuted on the mound against UC San Diego again. He came out of the bullpen for the Volunteers and went two-thirds of an inning, striking out the only two batters he faced. The fastball reached 95 mph, and he had his slider in the mid-80s. Joyce was back.
“I can still remember the entire outing even though I felt like I blacked out. It had been over 4 years since my last time in a game and we were out in Arizona for the MLB 4 tournament. I know they were trying to get me a clean inning, but I ended up coming in with 1 out and bases loaded,” Joyce said. “Once I got out there I just remember how good it felt and how excited I was. I ended up striking out the 2 guys I faced and the reactions from my teammates was the best feeling. They were all so supportive the entire time and helped me so much.”
Joyce finished the season with 10.1 innings pitched while striking out 17 batters. It was a small sample size of success, but all that mattered was that he was back on the mound throwing. That small sample size still had scouts taking notice. And as the draft rolled around in 2023, Joyce heard his name called in the 14th Round by the Los Angeles Angels, the same team his twin brother Ben played for.
Ben and Zach have played everywhere together, and that close-knit relationship has been beneficial to the both of them, even it can get overly competitive at times. Still, Zach wouldn’t trade his relationship with his brother for anything.
“It’s been incredible, and I’m definitely blessed to have a twin brother playing the same sport,” Joyce said. “Obviously, it gets extremely competitive, and we have our rough times, but you always have someone to work with and someone to help you out when you need it. Watching his success has been incredible and how hard he works pushed me even more.”
Zach debuted in 2023 and found success again, pitching 10.2 innings while striking out nine and giving up only three earned runs in A ball. Regardless of his success and making it to the next level in his baseball career, Zach knows that his battles with mental health don’t just end there. He knows it will always take consistent work on his end going into 2024 and beyond.
“There are still hard days but getting to the point where I am consistent through all of the highs and lows and continue to grow as a person and teammate on and off the field,” Joyce said. “I pride myself in being a great teammate and a person that people can confide and trust in. I want to continue to build that and have a healthy season on the field. Enjoy the moments I am in whatever and wherever they might be.”
Zach’s journey in baseball and life is just beginning. He’s found his way to seeking out community with others around him. Having overcome so much in baseball and life, Zach hopes that sharing his story helps others and lets them know that they aren’t alone on their own personal journey.
“It is an extremely vulnerable feeling but it will change your life if you open up and seek help. It is more tough to be able to do that than to keep it all in,” Joyce said.
“I know I felt like a burden for doing it, but the people that love and care about you notice when things are wrong and that is even more of a burden if they feel like they can’t help. Take it one day at a time. ‘The pain you have been feeling can’t compare to the joy that is coming’ Romans 8:18”
