It’s hard to believe, but we’re two months out from the 2024 MLB Draft. The class was bouyed by a strong college hitting demographic, with many picks having made their debuts, giving us a glimpse into the type of hitters they may be as professionals, their assets, and limitations. In the next few weeks at Prospects Live, we’ll be checking in on some of the data tied to first round bats. All of these reports and write ups draw on relatively small sample sizes, many of them for prospects playing by far their most grueling year of baseball to date, so temper any significant conclusions drawn.
NOTE: All data for prospects was pulled prior to games on 09.05.24
Travis Bazzana, 1st Overall, Guardians, A+
Slash Line: .231/.364/.407 (.770)
25.5 K%, 13.6 BB%
78.5% Contact%
.343 xWOBA
.170/.276/.280 (.556) versus LHP
The Guardians were the biggest beneficiary of the draft lottery this cycle, moving up to number one to pick Travis Bazzana, fresh off an outstanding college season with Oregon State. After quickly assigning him to A+ Lake County, Bazzana is off to a solid, if unspectacular, start. Bazzana’s disciplined approach is on display. He’s seeing a whopping 4.36 P/PA (that’s near top of the scale for A ball), and walking at a healthy 13.6% clip. The bat-to-ball skills have shown up, too, as Bazzana is running a 78.5% Contact% through 25 games. Bazzana hasn’t clicked into high gear yet, and he’s been susceptible to left-handed pitching, managing just a .556 OPS against southpaws.
Charlie Condon, 3rd Overall, Rockies, A+
Slash Line: .184/.253/.276 (.528)
31.6 K%, 3.2 BB%
63.9% Contact%
.239 xWOBA
The Rockies assigned Charlie Condon to A+ Spokane after giving him a record-tying bonus, selecting him third overall. It’s been an extremely slow start for the prospect coming off a historic season at Georgia. Condon has shown some bat-to-ball concerns in his first 22 games, managing a 63.9 Contact% (~7% below average for the level). The approach has been rough, too, with a 10.00 K/BB thus far. It’s still very early for Condon as a professional, but it’s been a slow start.
Nick Kurtz, 5th Overall, Athletics, AA
Slash Line: .368/.520/.763 (1.283)
20 K%, 24 BB%
77.5% Contact%
.526 xWOBA
It’s extremely early for Kurtz, who the Athletics signed to an underslot deal to sign at number five overall. He’s played just 12 professional games but laid waste to Low A Stockton. Kurtz managed a 1.531 OPS in his first seven games and slugged four home runs and three doubles. The Athletics moved him to AA, where he’s off to a solid start (.785 OPS in five games). Kurtz displays patience and selectivity at the plate, seeing 4.24 P/PA and swinging just 37.7% of the time. While he’s shown some vulnerability striking out at a high clip against left-handed pitching, crucially, he’s maintaining his excellent approach against them, keeping a consistent platoon-neutral on base percentage. Kurtz is off to one of the best starts of any first-round hitter.
Jac Caglianone, 6th Overall, Royals, A+
Slash Line: .250/.318/.420 (.738)
21.8 K%, 6.4 BB%
74.1% Contact%
56.3% Swing%
.317 xWOBA
Caglianone was one of the most intriguing bats in the first round. Significant improvements in his strikeout rate and out of zone contact rate in his final year at Florida were offset by extreme chase rates, all coupled with monster raw power. How would this translate to professional baseball? Solidly, thus far. Caglianone is an aggressive hitter, with a swing rate close to 10% above MLB average. His improved bat-to-ball skills have carried over into professional baseball. He’s producing at a solid rate for the level despite running an 81.8% ground ball rate against left-handed pitchers.
JJ Wetherholt, 7th Overall, Cardinals, A
Slash Line: .235/.365/.306 (.671)
10.6 K%, 14.4 BB%
80.7% Contact%
13.6% Chase%
.340 xWOBA
104.1 mph 90thExitVel
53.3% Hit95+%
In the conversation for the number one overall pick coming into the 2024 cycle, Wetherholt missed significant time due to soft tissue injuries at West Virginia, eventually being selected at number seven overall by the Cardinals. While Wetherholt’s slash line is unspectacular, I’d argue that some of his under the hood numbers should have Cardinals fans encouraged. The bat to ball skills are as advertised, as Wetherholt is maintaining a Contact% ~10% above average for the level. He doesn’t chase much, and is walking more than he is striking out through his first 25 games as a professional. Wetherholt is crushing his batted balls, with 53.3% hit 95 mph or harder. That’s third best in A ball among prospects who have played at least 20 games. He’s been a victim of some bad batted ball luck thus far.
Christian Moore, 8th Overall, Angels, AA
Slash Line: .330/.381/.567 (.948)
26.7 K%, 7.6 BB%
65.2% Contact%
.403 xWOBA
The Angels continued their predictable tendency of drafting prospects they believe can make short work of the minor leagues and make an immediate impact with the big league roster. This year it was Tennessee slugger Christian Moore, who they signed underslot at 8th overall. Moore passed the test of stepping into the batter's box at A ball before being moved up to AA, where he went on an immediate heater. After slugging five home runs in his first six games for Rocket City, he was sidelined by a meniscus injury. Moore was maximizing his batted ball events before his injury (high line drive and pull percentages). Long term, the potential obstacles may be his bat to ball skills against higher caliber pitching, as he was managing a 65.2% Contact% prior to his injury. Undeniably though, Moore was off to the hot start the Angels hoped for. There’s no current timeline for his return to on-field action.