The college season is in full-swing and most high school action across the country is beginning to reach the playoffs, so why don’t we have some fun and bring a new mock to the table?
We spent a couple of hours in a call dissecting the entire first round, playing out a scenario team-by-team with how we think the draft could look two and a half months from now. As we get closer, expect more mocks with a bit more intel involved, but this one is solely based on our thoughts. We will be expanding our draft boards in due time, as well. As always, you can find our Top 200 board here and our YouTube playlists can be found here.
1. Cleveland Guardians: 3b/OF Charlie condon
HT: 6’6 WT: 216 B/T: R/R
pick value: $10,570,600
The one thing you must know before diving into this mock: the MLB draft is a numbers game. Teams have employed strategies involving haircuts at the first overall pick in recent years and only one first overall pick has signed at slot value since 2017 (Spencer Torkelson, 2020). So the expectation is that whoever Cleveland takes first overall, they won't sign for the $10,570,600 slot value.
With that said, it's really tough to pinpoint any specific player to usurp Charlie Condon as of right now, no matter how we try to spice things up. Condon is having a season for the ages, slashing .461/.567/1.090 with 29 home runs in 43 games played, and he's shown increased athleticism and definisive utility, as he's shown he can play a viable third base or corner outfield spot. While Cleveland does have two more top 50 picks, Condon has the chance to be the best bat in this class with an above-average to plus hit tool and potentially double-plus juice. It's too tough to pass up, plus if Condon signs for under $10 million, that's a big win for the Guardians.
2. cincinnati reds: 1b/lhp jac caglianone
ht: 6’5 wt: 250 B/T: L/L
pick value: $9,785,000
Plenty of guys make sense for the Reds at second overall, though seeing Caglianone make a run at putting one into the Ohio is a fun thing to dream about. Caglianone's improvements at the plate are nothing short of miraculous, as he's drastically improved his contact and strikeout rates while showcasing ridiculously loud power. Yes, his chase rate is still a concerning note on his resume and he'll likely run into strikeouts regularly in the minor leagues, but the uptick in contact makes this a bit easier to handle. He's a viable first baseman, plus he can find himself in a position to chuck upper-90s fuego on the bump, though that'll likely be as a reliever. At this point, you should assume that the Reds will pounce on whoever Cleveland passes on, whether that be Condon, Kurtz, Bazzana, or others.
3. colorado rockies: 1b nick kurtz
HT: 6’6 WT: 240 B/T: L/L
PICK VALUE: $9,070,800
Assuming Caglianone becomes a Red, the Rockies will be at a bit of a crossroads. On one hand, the Rockies have made pitching a priority in recent drafts and the likes of Chase Burns and Hagen Smith are sure to entice the front office. On the other hand, there's a plethora of fun bats still available after Condon and Caglianone, plus money will play a role.
Enter Nick Kurtz, who has turned a corner since ACC play began in early March. After hitting just two home runs across the first 25 games, Kurtz has smashed 15 home runs since and has seen his average jump from a paltry .217 to a healthier .314. Take into account the stellar plate discipline and on-base skills and it's a pretty complete package that could take a haircut, especially if Colorado wants to get spicy with three more top 100 picks. His power would give Rockies fans something to cheer about in the future, but again, don't ignore the idea of an arm here.
4. OAKLAND ATHLETICS: 2B TRAVIS BAZZANA
HT: 6’0 WT: 199 B/T: L/R
PICK VALUE: $8,370,800
Bazzana falling into Oakland's lap at fourth overall would be a bit of a surprise, though given how the current situation has unfolded in this mock, it becomes a reality.
Bazzana's profile has only gotten better in 2024, as he's begun to tap into more of his power and the hit tool is as polished as they come. It's a pristine resume that has little to no blemishes. While it's not a flashy shortstop defensively, Bazzana profiles best as a second baseman, though with the tools offensively, you can ignore that caveat a bit. His projection is rather limited and it's a "what you see is what you get" kind of profile, but if I'm Oakland, I'd be happy. Braden Montgomery is another name that makes a ton of sense here, too.
5. chicago white sox: ss/of konnor griffin
HT: 6’4 WT: 210 B/T: R/R
PICK VALUE: $7,763,700
Chicago went college heavy in 2023 after double dipping in the prep ranks, though in this scenario, the White Sox go back to their prep roots and take arguably the best prep in the country, Konnor Griffin. There's a ton to like with Griffin's profile, as he's an incredible athlete with a strong hit tool, burgeoning power, and a rocket of an arm in the outfield.
As we've mentioned before, money talks, and with the White Sox, they have a top six bonus pool and don't have a comp pick, so there's room to splurge here, though it'll be interesting as they still have three more picks in the top 100. Should the pick not be Griffin, Bryce Rainer and Braden Montgomery make a ton of sense here, with Montgomery likely getting the advantage.
6. kansas city royals: of braden montgomery
HT: 6’2 WT: 220 B/T: S/R
PICK VALUE: $7,213,800
Braden Montgomery is a player that'll likely hear his name called in the top five in July, though in this simulation, Kansas City reaps the rewards of him falling into their laps at six. The transfer to College Station has proved to be exceptional for the switch-hitting outfielder, who has shown impressive plate discipline and loud power from both sides of the plate. Plus, his bazooka of a right arm will play perfectly in right field in Kansas City. If I'm Brian Bridges and company, I'm giddy about this scenario unfolding.
7. st. louis cardinals: LHP hagen smith
HT: 6’3 WT: 225 B/T: L/L
PICK VALUE: $6,823,700
St. Louis finds themselves in a prime position with Chase Burns, Hagen Smith, and JJ Wetherholt all available at this point, though we'll go with the southpaw at seven. Smith's as electric as they come, with a fastball that has tickled triple digits and a 70-grade slider leading his arsenal. There's reliever risk, but Smith has taken steps forward in the command department and his change-up has promise. It's a ton of upside for a system that doesn't have a ton of it.
8. los angeles angels: inf jj wetherholt
HT: 5’10 WT: 190 B/T: L/R
PICK VALUE: $6,502,800
The narrative surrounding the Angels in recent years? Find prospects that you can accelerate to the majors. The Angels have two options at their disposal in this scenario, as Chase Burns and JJ Wetherholt are both targets to race through the minors.
We'll stick with Wetherholt here, as his bat may be the best in this class. It's a well-rounded offensive profile with an explosive swing that's direct to the baseball and power that plays to both sides of the park. There's injury concern here, as he's been plagued by hamstring issues in the past calendar year, but there's more risk with an arm and the Angels may opt for the safer option. It'll feel like a steal, too.
9. pittsburgh pirates: ss bryce rainer
HT: 6’3 WT: 195 B/T: L/R
PICK VALUE: $6,216,600
Rainer has creeped his way up draft boards this spring and he's earning comparisons to Colson Montgomery, who is one of the best prospects in all of baseball. Rather physical and incredibly athletic, the bat looks more potent this spring than it did last summer, leading us to believe he's a top ten pick. Pittsburgh likes to target bats at the top of the draft and Rainer fits the model perfectly. There may be a chance that Rainer gets tried out on the bump, where he's gotten into the mid-90s with ease, though the uptick in his offensive profile has been hard to ignore and it's increasingly likely that he's a bat long-term.
10. washington nationals: rhp chase burns
ht: 6’3 wt: 210 b/t: r/r
pick value: $5,953,800
Burns makes sense for a few of the teams in the latter half of the top ten, but it's the Nationals that pull the trigger in this scenario. Burns' arsenal may just be the best in college baseball, as both his fastball and slider garner double-plus grades, plus the cambio and curveball have shown promise this spring. He's throwing strikes and has commanded everything well, looking like the most pro-ready arm in this class and one with potentially the most upside. This may be a bit of an over-slot deal given the pedigree, and while Washington is middle of the pack in terms of overall bonus pool money, they don't extra comp picks like some other teams.
11. detroit tigers: ss/of seaver king
HT: 6’0 WT: 195 B/T: R/R
PICK VALUE: $5,712,100
There's a lot to love with Seaver King's toolset, who has shown quite a bit of versatility this spring at Wake Forest. An incredibly athletic specimen, he's shown off enough to teams that he can handle shortstop at the next level with a stout arm and excellent range, plus his power likely separates him from the remaining infielders available. He is still aggressive with his swing decisions, but the pure contact skills have been there. There's no real prep to pick from in this range with Griffin/Rainer gone in this scenario, but King represents the next best prospect in our opinion. If there's another name to watch here, Trey Yesavage makes a ton of sense for Detroit.
12. boston red sox: rhp trey yesavage
HT: 6’4 WT: 225 B/T: R/R
PICK VALUE: $5,484,600
Boston has gone prep heavy early in the past few years, though with new leadership in the form of Craig Breslow, there's a sentiment in the room that direction will likely change. The Red Sox have quite a few arms with high carry heaters and Trey Yesavage certainly fits the bill in that regard. He's positioned himself to be the third arm off the board after a monstrous spring, plus his arsenal is something the Red Sox really need in their system. Both the slider and splitter are plus and the curveball, while sparsely utilized, isn't too far behind. It's an upside pick that makes a ton of sense for Boston.
13. san francisco giants: of james tibbs iii
HT: 6’0 WT: 201 B/T: L/L
PICK VALUE: $5,272,300
There's rumblings of James Tibbs III getting heavy heat inside the top fifteen after crushing the ACC this spring. He's a metric darling with excellent swing decisions, loud power, and the ability to stick in right field. Would it be a reach with Vance Honeycutt still on the board? Maybe, but Tibbs appears to be a safer option, plus we believe he is the best option available for the Giants. He'd be a ton of fun to watch deposit baseballs into McCovey Cove.
14. CHICAGO CUBS: RHP WILLIAM SCHMIDT
HT: 6’4 WT: 190 B/T: R/R
PICK VALUE: $5,070,700
The Cubs have targeted guys with impressive fastball data in recent years (Cade Horton, Jackson Ferris), so why stop the trend now? William Schmidt have flown up boards this spring with a velocity jump paired with impressive overall data on his fastball and curveball, both of which grade out as plus. He's gotten up to 99 MPH this spring and there's been development in his change-up, too. He's a bit more raw than the likes of Cam Caminiti, but finding a dynamic 1-2 punch in Schmidt's fastball and curveball is hard.
15. SEATTLE MARINERS: OF SLADE CALDWELL
HT: 5’9 WT: 182 B/T: L/L
PICK VALUE: $4,880,900
Caldwell might be maxed out as a smaller outfielder, but he's young for the class, displays exceptional plate discipline, and is an absolute burner on the basepaths. The Mariners don't shy away from preps either, considering all three first-rounders a year ago were on the prep side. Caldwell is well-liked amongst scouting circles and will likely hear his name called within the first twenty picks. If not Caldwell, Caminiti fits the Mariners well.
16. MIAMI MARLINS: LHP CAM CAMINITI
HT: 6’2 WT: 205 B/T: L/L
PICK VALUE: $4,704,700
Miami took two prep arms early last year, so why not stick to their guns? Caminiti shouldn't get this far in real life, but Miami would be jumping for joy to see him fall into their laps. It's a loud fastball that's gotten up to 97-98 MPH this spring with budding off-speed pitches and he oozes athleticism from the left side. Frankie Piliere's philosophy with Seattle will likely carry over to Miami, which likely means that if Caminiti isn't available here, they'll weigh a multitude of prep bats.
17. milwaukee brewers: c malcolm moore
HT: 6’2 WT: 216 B/T: L/R
PICK VALUE: $4,534,100
Milwaukee is one of those teams who could employ a rather fun draft strategy. They have a ton of bonus pool money to work with, as well as five picks in the top 100. They love polished college bats and Malcolm Moore certainly fits the bill, plus if he can get you a haircut, you take it. Moore's bat has been great this year despite the subpar batting average, as he's posting a contact rate ~85% in 2024 and an OBP above .400, plus the power is tantalizing. Cam Smith, Carson DeMartini, and Carson Benge would all make sense at this spot for Milwaukee, assuming they go the underslot route.
18. tampa bay rays: 3b cam smith
HT: 6’3 WT: 224 B/T: R/R
PICK VALUE: $4,372,900
The Rays are an interesting team, as they've been bat heavy in recent drafts and have dipped into the prep pool more often than not. With that said, it's tough to find a prep player to pin to them in this scenario, which means Cam Smith "falls" into their lap at 18. Smith's bat is incredibly powerful and he's bound to stick at third base as a pro, as he's a fluid mover with a strong arm. His plate discipline has drastically changed and he's put together one helluva season in Tallahassee. Tampa Bay would be happy with this pick.
19. NEW YORK METS: OF VANCE HONEYCUTT
HT: 6’3 WT: 205 B/T: R/R
PICK VALUE: $4,219,200
The Mets have prioritized prep bats the past two years with new leadership at the helm, but much like the Rays, it was tough for us to think of a proper prep bat that would entice the Mets enough here. Vance Honeycutt's toolset is quite loud outside of the hit tool, as the power and defense grade out as potentially plus and the speed may be double-plus. He'll be a fascinating one to follow on draft day, but it wouldn't be a shock to see him go in this area.
20. TORONTO BLUE JAYS: INF/OF THEO GILLEN
HT: 6’3 WT: 198 B/T: L/R
PICK VALUE: $4,073,400
Gillen had a lackluster summer last year, but he's really turned a corner this spring and will be in prime position to be one of the first prep bats taken in July. Toronto is a bit harder to dissect, as they've been all over the board in recent years, but Gillen's contact prowess, excellent plate discipline, and up-the-middle defensive positioning leaves plenty to love. If Gillen goes before Toronto, Carson Benge is a great fit here.
21. MINNESOTA TWINS: OF CARSON BENGE
HT: 6’1 WT: 184 B/T: L/R
PICK VALUE: $3,934,400
Speaking of Benge, the Twins pluck the twitchy outfielder from Oklahoma State at 21. Minnesota loves big offensive profiles and while Benge isn't like Aaron Sabato, Brooks Lee, or Walker Jenkins in terms of bruteness, Benge is very athletic with a ton of arm strength and legit power potential. He'll need to tinker with his swing a bit in order to get to that potential, but the projection and bat speed really stand out. It's a very well-rounded profile.
22. BALTIMORE ORIOLES: 1B/OF PJ MORLANDO
HT: 6’3 WT: 200 B/T: L/R
PICK VALUE: $3,802,200
This pick is a bit unorthodox for what the Orioles typically look for, but it was admittedly tough to figure out a pick that would fit here at this point. Morlando's pick here is a big upside idea, though, as his bat may be the best in the prep class with hitterish traits and loud power. He'd fit in left field with Baltimore given the pushback of the wall, too. It's a bit of a wild card, and we might be a bit crazy, but it's food for thought. If someone like James Tibbs III falls to here, though, Baltimore would be all over him.
23. los angeles dodgers: c jacob cozart
HT: 6’3 WT: 222 B/T: L/R
PICK VALUE: $3,676,400
Let the ACC catcher train continue in Los Angeles. First it was Will Smith, then it was Dalton Rushing, and now Jacob Cozart.
Cozart has a well-rounded profile and looks to be one of the best defensive catchers in the draft, though admittedly there are some warts with the stick. His struggles against spin are noteworthy, though he's seen a power increase and it's respectable plate discipline. If there's anyone who can turn him into a stud, it's the Dodgers.
24. ATLANTA BRAVES: RHP BRODY BRECHT
HT: 6’4 WT: 235 B/T: R/R
PICK VALUE: $3,556,300
The Braves and arms in the first round, name a more iconic duo.
Brody Brecht at 24 feels akin to the Hurston Waldrep selection a year ago, though with Brecht, there's a lot more to dissect. Brecht's command did not take the jump forward that we wanted to see, though with how quickly the pitching crop falls off after the top three, someone could take a chance on Brecht and squeeze more out of his profile. There's substantial upside if Atlanta can straight him out, though a fast-moving reliever is the likely outcome here.
25. SAN DIEGO PADRES: OF BRAYLON PAYNE
HT: 6’1 WT: 180 B/T: L/L
PICK VALUE: $3,442,100
The Padres love preps, this is not new information. The last time they took a college prospect in the first round was in 2016, when they took Cal Quantrill and Eric Lauer. With AJ Preller still at the helm, it's tough to see this changing, though there's a multitude of directions they can go here. We settled on Braylon Payne, a Texas outfielder with a ton of twitch and speed, as well as burgeoning impact in the bat. It's a bit similar to Dillon Head's profile last year. Other names that make sense here are Kellon Lindsey and Wyatt Sanford.
26. NEW YORK YANKEES: 3B BILLY AMICK
HT: 6’1 WT: 220 B/T: R/R
PICK VALUE: $3,332,900
Amick has steadily risen up boards this spring with an onslaught in non-conference play, though his conference slate has been impacted by appendicitis. It's a power-over-hit profile with considerable juice to all fields and the swing itself is appeasing to scouts. He's also shown some defensive viability at third base, though time will tell if he sticks there or not. It could be a fun fit with the Yankees, who have taken quite a few college bats with pop in recent years.
27. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES: OF DAKOTA JORDAN
HT: 6’0 WT: 220 B/T: R/R
PICK VALUE: $3,228,300
The Phillies have gone prep heavy in recent drafts, though some trends do have an ending. Dakota Jordan is such a tantalizing prospect in this class, as he could very well be a top 25 pick with top-of-the-scale power and plus speed. With that said, there's a few questions to answer with his contact, though you can argue that he could fly through the minors. Of course, Philadelphia could very well stay on the prep pipeline, as Wyatt Sanford, Kellon Lindsey, and Caleb Bonemer all make sense.
28. HOUSTON ASTROS: 1B/3B TOMMY WHITE
HT: 6’1 WT: 228 B/T: R/R
PICK VALUE: $3,132,500
The idea of Tommy White peppering the crawford boxes at Minute Maid Park was too enticing for us to pass up on the opportunity here. White's feel to hit and all fields juice is quite impressive, though he does still chase at a high clip and will likely have to serve as a first baseman moving forward. Either way, you're buying the bat here if you're Houston.
29. ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS: RHP BRAYLON DOUGHTY
HT: 6’1 WT: 196 B/T: R/R
PICK VALUE: $3,045,500
Arizona has quite the situation unfolding in 2024. Much like Seattle in 2023, Arizona has a top ten bonus pool and three picks in close succession, giving them ample opportunity to get fancy with their picks. Leading off their picks in this mock is Chaparral RHP Braylon Doughty, who has gotten quite a bit of back-end first round buzz this spring. He's been into the mid-90s with two electric breakers, both of which possess high spin metrics and grade out excellently.
30. TEXAS RANGERS: INF KAELEN CULPEPPER
HT: 6’0 WT: 190 B/T: R/R
PICK VALUE: $2,971,300
The reigning World Series champions are in a great spot as an organization. At this juncture, Kaelen Culpepper feels like a safe bet to be taken in this range. Culpepper's athleticism and toolset are enticing, as he's likely to stick up-the-middle with solid defensive chops and a strong arm. His swing has been tinkered with and he's seen better results, even if there's some questions still to be answered.
31. ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS: SS WYATT SANFORD
HT: 6’1 WT: 172 B/T: L/R
PICK VALUE: $2,904,000
This is where some of the remaining top preps will begin to be taken, and with Arizona's plethora of picks, they'll likely dip into this demographic again. Wyatt Sanford has been a big riser this spring with strong defense up-the-middle and there's budding power in the stick. It wouldn't be a shock to see Sanford go higher than this, so in this scenario, Arizona is luring him down the board with a potential overslot deal.
32. BALTIMORE ORIOLES: C WALKER JANEK
HT: 6’0 WT: 190 B/T: R/R
PICK VALUE: $2,835,400
Another bat in the fold for Baltimore, Janek has lit up the Southland Conference in 2024 and will find himself vying for a back-end first round selection. The tools behind the plate give scouts enough to think he sticks behind the plate and there's budding juice in the bat. As of now, he's on track to post a career best in nearly every offensive category possible. His chase rates could come down, but the upside is something to gamble on here.
33. MINNESOTA TWINS: 3B CALEB BONEMER
HT: 6’1 WT: 195 B/T: R/R
PICK VALUE: $2,766,100
This pick is a more of a traditional Twins selection. Caleb Bonemer is a physical infieldier with burgeoning power from the right side and he's garnered comparisons to Brady House. The Virginia commit was one of the loudest bats on the summer circuit last year and just got his spring underway. He does fall a bit further in this mock, which would make Minnesota quite happy.
34. MILWAUKEE BREWERS: SS CARTER JOHNSON
HT: 6’2 WT: 185 B/T: L/R
PICK VALUE: $2,698,300
After getting a haircut from Malcolm Moore at 17, the Brewers lock down Carter Johnson with an overslot deal at 34. Johnson was one of the biggest risers during last year's summer circuit with an optimized bat path and solid power potential from the left side. He's also a slick defender and could stick at shortstop long-term. Other names that make sense here are Tyson Lewis and Kellon Lindsey.
35. ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS: LHP KASH MAYFIELD
HT: 6’4 WT: 200 B/T: L/L
PICK VALUE: $2,632,500
The last of Arizona's picks in this mock, the Diamondbacks snag one of the biggest risers in Oklahoma's Kash Mayfield. He's older for the class, but he's burst onto the scene with really easy mechanics and a heater that's gotten into the mid-90s. The off-speed package has serious potential, as well. It's potentially loud upside from the left side.
36. CLEVELAND GUARDIANS: LHP JONATHAN SANTUCCI
HT: 6’2 WT: 205 B/T: L/L
PICK VALUE: $2,569,200
Cleveland knows their way around pitching development and Duke southpaw Jonathan Santucci makes perfect sense for them. Santucci's stuff can be downright electric, with a dynamic fastball/slider combination and a budding cambio, but the strikes have not been there. Assuming Cleveland can clean up the delivery and improve the strike-throwing, Santucci's upside is that of a mid-rotation starter.
37. PITTSBURGH PIRATES: C KEVIN BAZZELL
HT: 6’1 WT: 205 B/T: R/R
PICK VALUE: $2,511,400
Kevin Bazzell is an extremely underrated prospect in this year's class. He's running an absurd contact rate near 90% and has a ton of offensive upside. It's a potentially hit-over-power profile, but these kind of catchers don't grow on trees often. Even if Bazzell doesn't stick behind the plate, it'll be tough to keep him out of the lineup. Pittsburgh could get a haircut for Rainer's signing bonus here, as well.
38. COLORADO ROCKIES: RHP JOEY OAKIE
HT: 6’3 WT: 207 B/T: R/R
PICK VALUE: $2,452,200
The Rockies got after the VAA campaign in last year's draft with Chase Dollander and Sean Sullivan, so we'll stick to our guns here and go with Iowa prep arm Joey Oakie. Oakie's fastball is extremely flat from a low-launch release, getting up to 97 MPH with bat-missing traits on the top rail. Let's not ignore the plus slider, either. It could be a potentially fun fit as Colorado seeks answers to pitching in Coors Field.
39. KANSAS CITY ROYALS: SS KELLON LINDSEY
HT: 6’0 WT: 175 B/T: R/R
PICK VALUE: $2,395,000
As the last pick in this mock, there's a growing belief in our minds that the Royals will target a prep player with this pick. Kellon Lindsey fits the bill for Kansas City, a prep bat with a ton of helium this spring with a dynamic toolset and excellent athleticism. He's an elite runner and has the tools to stick in the dirt, plus he's still a bit raw given his football talents took center stage up until this spring. It wouldn't be farfetched to think that Tyson Lewis and Tyler Bell make sense here, too.