2022 and 2023 MLB Draft Live Looks of pitchers from game 1 (Wake Forest vs. UCONN), game 4 (Maryland vs. UCONN), and game 5 (Maryland vs. Wake Forest) of the NCAA College Park Regional hosted by the University of Maryland.
MLB Draft Live Looks: Corvallis Regional
2022 MLB Draft - Mock Draft 3.0
ACC Tournament Live Looks: Pitching Edition
What a way to end the spring season.
It’s always nice to end good things out with a bang, and as we start to transition from 2022’s class to 2023, I figured it’d be best to make my way down to Charlotte for the ACC Tournament to get an opportunity to see guys I wasn’t able to in the regular season. It turned into one of the best events I have been a part of, so in return, you will get a lot of live look notes in this one. This will be part one of a two-part mini-series, with pitchers only in this edition before a hitters edition after this. Let’s dive in.
LHP Nate Savino, Virginia
Nate Savino’s been a frustrating pitcher to gauge throughout his college career. He enrolled early at Virginia before the COVID-shortened 2020 season and seemingly lost the velocity he had in his prep days. But over the past month or so, Savino has seen a return of the velocity and he’s risen up multiple draft boards as a result. Friday continued that trend against a strong Notre Dame lineup.
For starters, Savino’s velocity peaked at 96 MPH, comfortably sitting 93-95 MPH and doing a good job of holding it throughout his outing. It still has its signature sinking action, though he did have some trouble landing the pitch arm-side. The slider has also risen in velocity, now sitting in the mid-80’s with some sweeping action, getting some chases on pitches low and away to lefties. The change-up can be a little firm at times, and much like the fastball, struggled to land arm-side, but it’s now into the mid-80’s with some fading life when it’s not firm. Everything comes from a lower three-quarters arm slot with some deception, as well.
When it comes to figuring out Savino’s mechanics, I did a little deep dive into his history. Back in his prep days, he was more athletic in his motions. Once 2021 hit, Savino closed himself off at foot strike and became more stiff and upright, which helps explain the velocity issues he experienced. From last year to this year, Savino has begun adding more force to the ground, thanks to using his entire foot to land instead of landing on his foot laterally. He’s also able to rotate quicker with his hips, which has helped him gain the velocity back (shoutout goes to Cam Lanzilli for the help with this). With this said, there’s still projection remaining to Savino’s frame and if he keeps these new mechanics going, there’s likely more in the tank from a velocity standpoint. He’s gone from a rather pedestrian arm to having some serious intrigue to him now, and it would not shock me to see Savino get popped on Day 1 in July.
LHP Brandon Schaeffer, UNC
Brandon Schaeffer’s journey this spring has been an up-and-down affair, but if there’s ever a time to be hot, now is the perfect time for it. Much like Cardinals’ farmhand Austin Love a year ago, Schaeffer has come into his own in the month of May, extending himself in-game and giving stability to the UNC pitching staff. But what he did on Friday, against the kind of offensive juggernaut he faced and the ballpark it was hosted, was one of the most dominant performances I have seen in person.
Schaeffer and head coach Scott Forbes mentioned the ups and downs in the post-game presser. With Max Carlson holding down the Friday night title after his return from the bullpen, Schaeffer really embraced his role as the Saturday guy, a solid starting option behind an emerging and budding ace. But Schaeffer took it to another level against Virginia Tech, holding 88-91 the entire outing with a fastball that was seemingly untouchable. No matter where he threw it, no one could touch it. He’d throw in a high-spin, sweepy slider and a change-up with running action, but the main star of the show was that sinker of his. He threw tons of first pitch strikes and only once allowed a runner to second base. With help from his defense, as well, Schaeffer threw 72% strikes and nearly finished a “Maddux”, ultimately settling for 102 pitches. As a draft prospect, he’s more of a Day 2-Day 3 name, but he’s left quite the impression with a strong finish to the ACC slate.
LHP Bryce Hubbart, Florida State
After seeing the pitching woes that hampered Florida State against UNC, I was hoping for a big turnaround coming into Charlotte this week. What we got was a complete 180 from Hubbart against a very good Virginia lineup. Head coach Mike Martin mentioned how “twitchy” of a guy Hubbart is and how settling him down mentally helped in the turnaround and help him find some of his Cape Cod velocity.
Against UNC, Hubbart only sat 88-91 MPH with his heater and struggled to throw strikes. Against Virginia? He found a groove early, throwing strikes and getting whiffs up in the zone thanks to excellent riding action, sitting 90-93 MPH and topping out at 94 MPH, which matches his maximum from the Cape. It was primarily fastball early, with Virginia hitters not being able to catch up to it. The slider wasn’t thrown for strikes early, but got better as the outing went along. It sat in the 77-81 MPH range with serious sweeping action and some bite to it, with high spin rates, as well. He even dropped in a couple of change-ups, which certainly got the attention of Martin in the dugout. It was a nice bounceback outing for Hubbart and he more than likely finds himself somewhere on Day 1, though likely in the second round.
LHP Carson Palmquist, Miami
This was the first time I had seen Palmquist as a starter. Last year as a reliever, it was a fun viewing. Sitting low-to-mid 90’s with his heater, tunneling the change-up, and having a slurvy breaking ball made life difficult in the box, especially with how low of a release he has. Fast forward a year later and in his new role, the velocity has not come to fruition for Palmquist. He's primarily been 89-92 MPH throughout the year, occasionally popping a 93, though he’s had bright spots as a starter.
The heater plays up from its velocity thanks to the characteristics of the pitch. It’ll run away from righties and he’s able to command it east/west nicely. He mainly started off 90-92 MPH, before settling in at 89-91 MPH. However, Tommy White managed to take two fastballs away and unload on them to the opposite field. The change-up is solid with fading action and mimics the fastball, tunneling nicely with the low, sidearm slot that Palmquist has. He introduced a breaking ball with more of a slider shape to it in the low-80’s, but it was mainly used against lefties and was seldom used. Ultimately, I think Palmquist becomes a reliever at the next level. With that said, Palmquist likely fits somewhere in the second to third round range.
RHP Liam Simon, Notre Dame
Liam Simon has had some ups and downs this year. Primarily a reliever coming into this year, Link Jarrett opted to start using Simon in more of a hybrid role, getting in some starts, though prior to Charlotte, the longest he had gone was four innings. Luckily for Notre Dame, Simon had his best outing of the season, keeping Virginia’s potent offense off the board across five stellar innings with eight strikeouts and just two walks.
Simon is a known flame-thrower and even in the starting role, the velocity didn’t waver. Simon was consistently 95-98 MPH and reared back for 99 MPH at times, especially later in the outing, with good tilt and carry to it, while also throwing a good amount of strikes from a funky, high three-quarters slot. The slider has wipeout potential, a tight spinning breaker with nasty late bite that essentially gives away from righties. It’s tough to pick up out of the hand at times and will, more often than not, get ugly swings while being in the opposing batters box. He’ll flash a change-up, but it lags behind the dynamic FB/SL duo. The main knock on Simon is the command, he can be rather streaky with the fastball and the slider usually ends up in the opposing box. That said, there’s plenty to like about Simon in a relief role moving forward with how dynamic he can be.
LHP Chris Villaman, NC State
Before the year started, Elliott Avent made one thing clear about Villaman; he would be utilized like Evan Justice was last year. Throughout the week for NC State, Villaman was used a total of four times, throwing a total of 9.2 innings while walking just two and striking out seventeen batters, including eight in five perfect innings in the title game against UNC on Sunday.
Villaman made a change to his fastball over the off-season and has become a legitimate weapon. Last year, Villaman threw more of a cutter that got into the mid-90’s, which was attributed to his cross-body motion on the mound. This year, Villaman added more riding life to the pitch with above-average spin rates and was untouchable up in the zone and Villaman could paint the corners with it. His change-up is still his best off-speed offering, a low-spin pitch that fades away from righties late and has excellent separation from the fastball. He still lacks an ability to spin a breaking ball, a fringey mid-70’s pitch that has more of a “get-me-over” feel to it, which will need to be addressed at the next level. He’s shown in the past he could start, and an organization may let him in pro ball, but he’s proven to be a potent bullpen arm and likely ends up in that role moving forward.
LHP John Michael Bertrand, Notre Dame
Bertrand is the oldest player in this piece, having turned 24 years old back in February. That said, he brings plenty of veteran presence, poise, and a great understanding of his craft to a Notre Dame squad poised to make their way to Omaha for the first time since 2002.
While he’s primarily been in the high-80’s in most of his starts, Bertrand came out sitting 90-93 MPH with the fastball, touching 94 MPH a couple of times. He’s the pure definition of a pitchability pitcher, showcasing a solid change-up, slider, and flashing the curveball throughout the outing and keeping Florida State in check throughout. In the third and fourth innings, Bertrand ran into trouble, but used a mental reset and began pitching backwards to help get him out of the innings, which proved big for Notre Dame as they secured their spot in the semifinals. Bertrand’s command was locked in after that, allowing him to go eight innings of one-run ball.
RHP Alex McFarlane, Miami
McFarlane has been one of my favorites arms in college thanks to how stupidly good his stuff is. I remember first seeing him against UNC last year and being blown away by how quick his arm is and how potent his arsenal can be. Miami’s bullpen has a good amount of stellar arms in the back-end and he’s become a very fun set-up guy to Andrew Walters (more on him shortly).
McFarlane has an insanely quick arm and a very good three-pitch mix. He reached up to 97 MPH with the heater showcasing tons of running action and sitting 94-96 MPH throughout. The slider is freakish, a dynamic two-plane breaker with tight spin and short bite in the mid-80’s that garners whiffs aplenty. The change-up has some fading action in the same velocity band as the slider, but it’s not used often. His command comes and goes and that’s ultimately what limits him from being in a larger role for Miami. More consistency will be the focal point moving forward with the kind of stuff he possesses. It would not at all shock me if McFarlane happens to move on a faster track than some once selected.
RHP Andrew Walters, Miami
If you are looking for more dominant relievers in college, Walters might be at the top of the list for you. Formerly a JUCO transfer from Eastern Florida State, Walters has been a dynamic force as Miami’s closer. He did not allow a run until late April and has limited the opposition to ten hits in thirty innings, while walking just five and running a strikeout-rate of 53%. Sources do say that this is #good.
With Walters, he could be classified as more of a “one-pitch” guy. Everything really lives and dies by the fastball. He matches plane at the bottom of the zone well and is still able to get good carry up in the zone. He sat 97-98 MPH with good command, pitching inside often and doing a good job of limiting hard contact. While he throws the curveball hard, sitting in the low-80’s, it’s seldom used. That said, Walters is able to limit righties with the breaker, which has some depth and bite to it. He’s got deception in his delivery, hiding the ball well, as well as having excellent extension and spin on the heater to make it difficult to hit. He likely will be selected in the top five rounds come July and would rise up the ranks relatively quickly given the stuff and command he possesses.
Other noteworthy arms: max carlson (UNC), zach maxwell (GT), mack anglin (clemson), wyatt crowell (FSU), alex rao (ND), rhett lowder (WF)
Will Hoefer's Live Looks From The Month Of May
Q&A with MLB Draft Prospect Andrew Dutkanych, RHP
Brian Recca's Live Looks: 5/17/2022
2022 MLB Draft - Top 500 Prospects
This Top 500 really reinforces a few things we’ve always believed… Druw Jones, for us, is a cut above the rest. College hitters are good. Really good. And deep. The high school pitching in this class has the potential to be one of the stronger groups in recent memory. Where do we currently have Termarr Johnson, Druw Jones, Jackson Holliday, and Elijah Green currently ranked? What about Chase DeLauter, Brooks Lee, Kumar Rocker, Jace Jung and others?
MLB Draft MailBag - 5/5/2022
Live Looks: The Will Hoefer Edition
I might as well be paying rent at the backfields these days. It’s been quite a month. Let’s review.
RHP Sam Horn, Collins Hill (GA)
Date(s) seen: 4/18
A gaggle of scouts were in attendance on a chilly Monday evening to see Horn throw in his final Spring start. Despite an uneven performance and lofty hit and run totals (the defense behind Horn did little favors), there were plenty of positives to takeaway from the Mizzou QB commit’s outing. Horn has a projectable 6’4” 200 lb. build and pitches with a clean arm path, utilizing minimal amounts of effort to get to his low 90s velocity. The fastball sat at that range all evening and touched 94 and 95 early on, with plenty of arm side run and carrying action. The slider was 79-81 MPH with good feel for spin and strong vertical depth, showed potential for development into a plus pitch. Sprinkled in a few mid 80s changeups that were firm but showed potential with good tailing action, as well as a looping mid 70s curveball that appeared to be a work in progress. Command was a bugaboo early on, as Horn is learning to pitch with his stuff and left his fastball and slider over the middle to catch barrels. He found his spots with more regularity late and racked up double digit whiffs with both pitches. On talent alone he’s a million dollar arm, but commitment to play quarterback at an SEC program leaves some to believe that he might be done with pitching.
RF Colby Thomas, Mercer
Date(s) seen: 4/19
Mercer ventured up I-75 for a midweek matchup against Georgia Tech on April 19th, and Colby Thomas was the main attraction for the evaluators in attendance. The Bears’ right fielder guarded against sliders all night and was late on fastballs as a result. His hands will loop out at times and expose him inside, but he did a good job staying inside on a fastball running in and found the barrel going the other way. Did make solid contact on hanging slider, but the good ones got chases with poor results. Thomas looked solid in RF without much in the way of being challenged, showed good arm strength. Tools are as loud as prep days and he has gotten stronger, but determination on how well he can make adjustments to sliders in his developmental process will shape his draft stock.
SS Chandler Pollard, Woodward Academy (GA)
Date(s) seen: 4/21, 4/28
Chandler Pollard continued to demonstrate his impressive toolset in a couple of late season looks, showcasing good raw power on mistakes over the middle and running wild on opposing batteries in the likely event he gets on base. Hitterish traits were also on display, with quick twitch and strong wrists allowing him to adjust to well located pitches and generate good contact. In the field, there’s bounce and soft hands that typically allow him to range and handle a wide spectrum of opportunities, and his footwork on throws is improving as you’d hope with more reps.
RHP Marcus Johnson, Duke
Date(s) seen: 4/22
Johnson got the ball on Friday night for Duke in their series opener vs. the Yellow Jackets, and battled through some command issues to give his team five innings of work. The large and lean framed right hander works from a high 3Q armslot with a clean arm and plenty of tempo. The fastball sat in the low 90s all game and touched 94 early on, with plenty of running life. Worked best in on the hands of Georgia Tech’s right handed hitters for called strikes and weak contact, couldn’t get chases at the top of the zone. Worked off of the heater with a low 80s slider and mid 80s changeup. The slider had decent bite and could get whiffs when located low; mistakes left up were hit hard. Changeup had above average depth and flashed plus with fall off the table late drop, commanded well all night and was the go to pitch. Johnson’s feel for spin and athleticism make him very interesting clay, but progression with command to the edges is vital for his future as a starter.
3B Drew Compton, Georgia Tech
Date(s) seen: 4/22, 4/29, 4/30
Compton has really been able to showcase how loud his bat can be as of late, as he’s been doing big damage on fastballs and drove in five runs--including the game winner--in Tech’s 12-11 extra inning win over Duke. He does struggle with changeups and there’s some ambiguity on whether or not his long term home is third base, but the combination of power production, contact skills, and switch hitting flexibility gives Tech’s middle-of-the-order slugger a solid offensive floor in this draft class.
RHP Blake Gillespie, Next Level Academy (GA)
Date(s) seen: 4/26
Pitching in Academy Prospect League out at East Cobb, Blake Gillespie went out and handled business like you would expect against an overmatched Citadels lineup--throwing four scoreless innings with ten strikeouts. Gillespie’s frame is a bit smaller than the median prep pitching prospect at 6’1”, but projects to add strength with a presently lean build and high waist. Arm action is shorter but with some stiffness, doesn't exert much effort to get to velo and consistently held low 90s throughout outing. Fastball was 89-92 T93 MPH, primarily two seamer with good tail with some four seamers early with solid carry---spins both well and efficiently. Curveball was mid 70s with tight 11-5 vertical break, average to above average pitch.. Like the fastball, it got whiffs with regularity throughout outing. Flashed low 80s changeup with good depth but intermittent feel the table drop, as well as a singular 81 MPH slider with Julio Teheran style lateral movement. Worked both sides of a fairly wide zone, a few curveballs weren't finished but generally landed his pitches all outing.
LHP Carson Palmquist, Miami (FL)
Date(s) seen: 4/29
Palmquist is a lean lefty with physical characteristics--primarily sloped shoulders--that suggest he will continue to add strength in his developmental path. Clean arm, distributes his weight well in repeatable delivery that's not easy to repeat unless you're strong in your core and lower half. Low 3Q delivery that borders on sidearm. Head stays on target, some effort to velo. Fastball sat 88-91 T92 MPH, lots of arm side run and locates to both sides of the plate. Occasional miss over the middle will get driven, but is otherwise a groundball and broken bat machine. Will go upstairs when he needs to and can get whiffs due to flat VAA. Changeup was 79-82 with loads of run and tunnels well off FB when he's locating. Tonight that was an issue, and while there were some good ones thrown that got weak contact Palmquist never found his CH command. Slider is a sweepy mid 70s breaker that lacks sharpness at times, but creates a really uncomfortable look for LHH due to how far it starts out and how much lateral break it has. Awkward swings and takes in the zone from Tech lefties, and did finish under barrels late for whiffs. Command was a mixed bag; couldn't find his good changeup and a handful of mistakes with the cambio and fastball were punished by GT hitters. Worked fastball down to get quick groundball outs against the bottom of the order, really helped him get through seven innings without his best pitch.
RHP Alex McFarlane, Miami (FL)
Date(s) Seen: 4/30
Big frame, lean and high waisted. Works from lower 3Q armslot with some effort to get to velo. Fastball sat at 95-97 MPH and touched 98 on two occasions. True turbo sinker that is hard to elevate when he can locate below the beltline. Slider was 85-88 with short but sharp bite, good total movement and shape for that velocity band. In this single inning relief role, the arsenal flashes plus and can operate with more general command into the bottom half of the strike zone. Real late inning upside with additional development.
RHP Zach Maxwell, Georgia Tech
Date(s) Seen: 4/22, 4/29, 4/30
Maxwell was moved back into a relief role about a month and a half ago, and has regained a few extra ticks on his fastball and slider in the process. Over my looks in April, Maxwell sat 95-98 with its usual high carry shape, touching 99 against Duke and 100 vs. Miami. The velocity plays up its whiff potential, though even at the ACC level it does get hit on occasion when Maxwell leaves it below the letters. The slider appears to have been tinkered with a bit in his last appearance, as it was up from 84-87 MPH to 87-90 MPH, with noticeably sharper vertical movement. It’s something to keep an eye on in May for Georgia Tech’s stopper, who has some of the best pure ability to spin both fastballs and breaking balls in this draft class.
Quick followups on Georgia Tech hitters from last set of notes that keep hitting
2B Chandler Simpson, Georgia Tech
Date(s) Seen: 4/22, 4/29, 4/30
Simpson showcased his innate ability to get the bathead out on about any pitch he offers at--even ones where he was fooled. A huge on base threat with blazing speed to take extra bases when the opportunity presents itself. Really good range and hands up the middle, but throwing issues have saddled him to second base for the time being. With that said, he still projects to be a valuable defensive asset there, and offers a high offensive floor with his potent combination of contact skills, plate discipline and easy 70 grade speed.
C Kevin Parada, Georgia Tech
Date(s) Seen: 4/22, 4/29, 4/30
Parada continues to demonstrate an elite ability to do damage on a full gamut of pitches in any part of the strike zone--punctuated by no doubt home runs off of Carson Palmquist and Karson Ligon this past weekend. Having some rougher outings behind the plate--particularly with throwing accuracy--but athleticism is still encouraging for development and bat plays at any spot on the defensive spectrum.
1B Andrew Jenkins, Georgia Tech
Date(s) Seen: 4/22, 4/29, 4/30
Jenkins has shown better defensive chops as of late at first base, with improved hands to take advantage of his advanced range at the position. The Yellow Jackets’ three hole hitter has had struggles against good sliders, but shows an ability to adjust in later plate appearances and does big time damage on fastballs and changeups. Some of the best realized game power in the draft class, and could offer really good value to a team that can help him make an adjustment to recognize sliders earlier in his swing process.
MLB Draft Live Looks: April Recap
Harris Yudin's Sunday Coffee Live Looks
MLB Draft Live Looks - Week 8
Jace Jung, 2B, Texas Tech
Performance: 2-4, 1 HR, 1 BB
Listed at 6-feet, 205 pounds, the younger brother of Rangers top prospect Josh Jung looks mightier than his listed measurements. Jace Jung is powerfully built with impressive lower body strength. While he is close to maxed out physically, he already generates plus power and has an ideal swing for generating loft, which was on display as he leveraged a slider out of the park. More notably, Jung delivered an impressive five plate appearances, seeing 26 total pitches, adding a hard-hit single to go along with the home run. Jung is uber-selective and has a great feel for his swing, meaning he’s very likely to have excellently low whiff totals. It’s also evident Jung never lacks confidence at the plate -- even with two strikes -- as he worked a walk after seeing 5 two-strike pitches and slugging his home run in a 2-2 count.
Jung’s defensive instincts and leadership qualities were also on display as he showed adequate range to his left and served as the coordinator of defensive shifts. After starting the season off in expected fashion, Jung has reached new heights since March 15th (106 PAs), recording an OPS of 1.411 -- fueled by 8 homers -- with 23 walks to just 11 strikeouts.
-Tyler Paddor
Kurt Wilson, SS, Texas Tech
Performance: 3-5, 1 3B
The scout-drawing presence of Jace Jung on a team like Texas Tech is set to benefit consistent performers like Kurt Wilson. His strong 6-foot-2 frame and average to above-average speed give him workable tools on both sides of the ball. Wilson has a sturdy base that helps him drive on pitches low in the zone and an excellent ability to cover the outer half, though he may run into issues if he more consistently faces fastballs with carry. Wilson can be a swiss-army knife, though he’s had a stable showing at SS this season. His internal clock is evident and he showed smooth hands. As a 24-year old prospect, Wilson’s draft ceiling is limited to a late day 3 selection but he can bring versatile depth and a pro-ready bat to a system.
-Tyler Paddor
Jeffrey David, CF/3B*, New Mexico
Performance: 4-6, 1 HR
Originally a tooled-up Dallas Baptist recruit, the 6-foot-2, 190-pound David has found his footing this year with New Mexico; manning center-field like a stallion due to his plus speed and deploying an aggressive all-fields approach. In this game, David ended up starting at third-base for the first time this year, flashing his above average arm and looking comfortable handling a couple scorchers. He put a ribbon on a 4 for 6 game with a 3-run walk off homer. This year, David has been a bit swing happy but against Texas Tech, he laid off borderline pitches early in counts to get ahead. While David’s approach is rough around the edges, he has an undeniable knack for hitting the ball hard. The versatile David is an interesting later round target for teams confident in maximizing physical talent.
-Tyler Paddor
SS Zach Neto, Campbell
Neto was an on-base machine for the Camels on Tuesday, reaching base in four of his five plate appearances. He drew three walks and reached on a bloop single in the ninth, showing off his patience and bat-to-ball skills. He maintains a wide base with a big leg kick, but does a good job staying balanced throughout the swing.
On top of his reliability at the plate, Neto made an impact on the basepaths – breaking up a potential double play in the third and flying around the bases to score on an error in the seventh – and in the field, where he helped end a Carolina rally in the sixth inning with a quick tag to catch Mac Horvath stealing.
Neto didn’t get an opportunity to show off his range or arm strength on Tuesday, but his soft hands and smooth actions were on display. A team convinced he can stick at shortstop will likely pull the trigger in the late first round.
-Harris Yudin
Trevon Dabney, 3B, James Madison University
Bats/Throws; Right / Right
Height/Weight: 6-1 / 190
Year/Draft Age: Fourth Year Junior / 21.11
Date(s) Seen: 03/26/22
Batting Line: 2-4, 2 2B, 1 BB, 1 HBP, 0 K
Batting ahead of Chase DeLauter in the JMU lineup was the third baseman, Trevon Dabney. Standing at 6-foot-1 and 190 lbs, Dabney combines solid size, impressive physicality, and some quick-twitch athleticism. He utilizes an open, wide, and crouched stance at the plate with good bat speed and a solid understanding of the strike zone. He has enough raw pop to hit for power at the next level but showed off more of a line drive approach with a swing that was quick in and out of the zone. He smoked a couple of doubles and also reached base via the walk in five plate appearances.
Dabney has split time between third base and the outfield during his college career but played the outfield almost exclusively in 2020 and 2021. He has 32 games at third base this spring compared to just four in the outfield. Dabney showed the reflexes and twitch necessary for the hot corner and made a nice stop on a hard grounder during the game but he had trouble getting the ball out of his glove. The hands may not work enough for the infield at the next level which would ultimately shift him to the outfield. If Dabney could handle center field it would really boost his stock but his lack of experience there combined with his advanced age makes that possibility a bit gloomy. Dabney lacks a plus tool but is performing (1.010+ OPS) and has the body of a professional ballplayer. He looks like a day three (rounds 11-20) pick to me.
-Brian Recca
Colby Thomas, RF, Mercer University
Bats/Throws; Right / Right
Height/Weight: 6-0 / 190
Year/Draft Age: Third Year Sophomore / 21.05
Date(s) Seen: 04/01/22
Batting Line: 0-4. 0 BB, 0 K
It’s been a true breakout year for Colby Thomas after showing some intriguing tools on the Cape and during the 2021 college season. Thomas entered this weekend matchup against Seton Hall with nine homers on the year and would have three more by the time Mercer hit the road. Unfortunately, I saw Thomas on the day he struggled to an 0-4 line. Thomas doesn’t have the typical size of a middle of the order basher with more of a lean, average build. The body looks strong and projectable with above-average athleticism. Thomas has a tall and open stance with the bat head pointing almost straight up in the air. There’s a sizable leg lift that leads into an aggressive hack. There’s excellent acceleration in the hips and lower half which generates torque and impressive power. Thomas had mixed results on the Cape this past summer with one of the main issues being his plate discipline. In one at-bat during my look, Thomas did a good job getting ahead to a 3-1 count. He then chased a pitch well off the plate for strike two and then jammed himself on a fastball up and in which would have been ball four. Instead, it was an easy groundout. Thomas saw a lot of sliders and opposing arms tempted him early and often with the breaking ball. He seemed to be able to lay off pitches early in counts but would then expand later on.
It should be noted that this was just a single look and it came on a cold and wet Friday afternoon. Defensively, Thomas had some trouble with the wind on a deep fly ball but was able to haul it in with an over-the-shoulder catch. His arm wasn’t tested but has shown to be average-to-plus in the past. He looks well suited for either corner outfield spot at the next level. Colby Thomas is now up to sixteen homers on the season with a 1.280 OPS and is likely the favorite to win Southern Conference player of the year honors. His plate discipline concerns are likely to hold him back from the top few rounds but he’s unlikely to drop past the 5th round or so this July. It’s a good mix of plus raw power and above-average speed which puts him in that second or third tier of college outfielders.
-Brian Recca
JP Massey, RHP, University of Minnesota
Height/Weight: 6-1 / 190
Year/Draft Age: Fourth Year Junior / 21.11
Date(s) Seen: 04/02/22
Pitching Line: 3.1 IP, 5 H, 6 ER, 4 BB, 5 K
J.P. Massey was a popular breakout pick heading into the 2021 college season. There were flashes of premium stuff from an athletic, long-limbed righty during the canceled 2020 season and many were expecting further growth in his third year at Minnesota. Instead, Massey had a disastrous spring with an ERA over 10.00 that included 33 walks in 20 innings. I saw him pitch briefly during the MLB Draft League last summer and didn’t see much of a draft prospect because of how out of whack his mechanics and delivery were. Pitching against a very strong Rutgers lineup, Massey looked way more in control of his body with a simpler and more repeatable delivery than when I saw him about ten months ago. Massey also looked a bit more physical after appearing to be mostly skin and bones in the past. His listed weight of 205 lbs might be a tad inflated but he looks bigger than the 170-pound number he was listed at previously. Remarkably, Massey still appears to be an arm with plenty of room to grow physically with a lanky 6-5 frame. He’s undoubtedly a plus athlete with a loose arm and plenty of arm speed.
His fastball was 90-93 which was down from the 96 MPH velocity that he flashed previously. The pitch had a mostly sinking shape and it looked like he would occasionally cut the pitch unintentionally. His strike-throwing was much improved but the command of the fastball was still below average. Massey labored in his fourth inning of work and was pulled after loading the bases with one out. All those inherited runners would end up scoring for Rutgers which meant Massey would be tagged for six earned runs on the day. He walked four (two walks in the 4th), struck out five, but was better than his final line indicated. Massey has two separate swing and miss breaking balls in his arsenal with a curveball and slider. The slider flashed plus with both sweeping movement and depth. He used it effectively against lefties at times by locating the pitch towards the back foot. I also liked the bite and shape of his curveball when he snapped off some good ones. The curve didn’t come out of the hand cleanly as often as the slider but it showed above-average potential. I didn’t see a changeup as Massey utilized both breakers and the fastball for a three-pitch mix. The performance hasn’t been there for Massey thus far (6.23 ERA) but there’s enough raw ability and year-to-year growth to endear him to some area scouts. It’s a middle relief profile if he’s able to show more consistency pitch-to-pitch and get back to mid-90s velocity with his fastball.
-Brian Recca
John-Biagio Modugno, RHP, Indiana
Height/Weight: 6-5 / 205
Year: Third Year Sophomore / 21.11
Date(s) Seen: 04/15/22
Pitching Line: 4 IP, 2 H, O ER, 3 BB, 4 K, 1 HBP
Modugno was a late college pop-up arm last spring who flashed a plus slider and enough 92-95 MPH velocity to make him a legitimate draft prospect despite only 40 or so innings of work at Indiana. He was passed over as an eligible sophomore in 2021 but was a high-level follow for the 2022 season. D1Baseball ranked Modugno as the 3rd best 2022 draft prospect in the Big Ten while Perfect Game ranked him 5th. Things haven’t gone according to plan for Modugno as he currently sports an 8.38 ERA on the year. He had much more success during his Friday start against Rutgers as he shut out the Scarlet Knights for four innings. The stuff we saw last year wasn’t on display for Modugno in this one as he sat 89-91 MPH and was down to the 87-89 range by the 4th inning. He struggled to command the fastball early but gained a better feel for it as the game progressed. Modugno’s equalizer was his 79-81 MPH slider that he used to generate most of his whiffs. The slider has good sweeping movement and it tunnels well off his fastball. He used to throw it a bit harder and Modugno could have a true plus pitch if he added a little power to his breaker. Modugno didn’t feature a third pitch and focused on mixing his fastball-slider pairing through his four innings of work. He started giving up some squared-up contact in the 4th which is when his overall velocity started to decline.
At 6-foot-5 Modugno has good size and length in his projectable build. The delivery will need some refinement at the next level as will the fastball command. In order to regain legitimate draft interest, Modugno’s stuff will really need to tick up and his performance will need to be much stronger down the stretch. This outing was a step in the right direction as he was able to battle through multiple innings without his best stuff. He’s likely a two-pitch reliever at the next level and could be a good low-risk/high reward pick on day three of the draft.
-Brian Recca
Matthew Ellis, C, Indiana
Height/Weight: 6-4 /235
Year/Draft Age: Fourth Year Junior / 21.11
Date(s) Seen: 04/15/22
Batting Line: 0-3, 1 IBB, 0 K
Matthew Ellis looks to have found a home in Hoosier country after bouncing around between teams the last few years. Ellis redshirted his first at Tennessee before moving on to Walters State CC for a couple of years. He’s been Indiana’s primary catcher this year while moving to DH on his “off days” as he did during this game. He is extremely physical with strength distributed throughout his body. It’s kind of a square build without much projection but Ellis is supremely strong. He has double-plus raw power which has allowed him to swat twelve homers through 34 games with nearly half of his hits going for extra bases. Ellis has a narrow, slightly open stance with the bat resting on his back shoulder. His swing is low effort and features a toe tap and moderate leg lift. He does an excellent rotating his torso into contact and looks to drive the ball in the air and to his pull side. Ellis has recorded some massive exit velocity readings (118 max EV, 485 max distance) this spring and it’s not hard to see why as the swing is geared for big pull contact. There doesn’t seem to be much feel for spraying the ball to other fields as he was caught trying to yank pitches on the outer third multiple times in this game. He just missed squaring up a pitch in his third at-bat that went for a fly-out to right field.
Ellis did not get out of the box well on a double play groundout and his movements overall are not overly athletic. He might be a 30 or 20 grade runner. The Hoosiers pinch ran for Ellis in the 8th inning of a tie game which was very telling for me. I didn’t get to see him behind the plate but given his size and movements, it’s hard for me to envision him behind the plate long term. My guess is that Ellis is limited to first base at the next level. Overall, Ellis has some profile similarities to Niko Kavadas who was an excellent power bat for Notre Dame and an 11th round draft pick ($250,000 bonus, 6th/7th round money) last year by the Red Sox. Ellis looks like a late day 2 or early day 3 pick with the raw power and strength driving the profile.
-Brian Recca
Phillip Glasser, SS, Indiana
Height/Weight: 6-0 /195
Year/Draft Age: Fourth Year Junior / 22.07
Date(s) Seen: 04/15/22
Batting Line: 3-3, 2 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Glasser really stood out at the plate in this one, putting together some of the best at-bats of the day. He showed enough on both sides of the ball that I could see him getting pro interest on day two of the draft. He's thickly built with compact strength and is capable of making hard, line-drive contact. He has a pesky, top-of-the-lineup type of profile. Glasser can work counts and does a good job waiting for his pitch. He lined a couple of hard hits to right field on pitches inside and below his belt which might be his "happy zone". He also showed good bat and barrel control on a tough fastball outside. He let the ball travel deep with some barrel lag before using his quick hands to drive the ball the opposite way for a double. Glasser's hit tool looks above average to me and he's currently running a 22:20 K-to-BB ratio in 165 plate appearances.
Glasser showed plus speed on the bases but could slow down as he matures. He wasn't really tested at shortstop but he transferred in from Youngstown State with a reputation of being a solid defender at short. He has infield actions and will fit up the middle somewhere. Glasser will be closer to 23 years old than 22 on draft day which limits his stock. Still, up the middle college bats in power conferences don't typically last long. Glasser could be a popular discount pick in the top ten rounds.
-Brian Recca
Dale Stanavich, LHP, Rutgers
Height/Weight: 5-11 / 175
Year/Draft Age: Fifth Year Junior / 23.00
Date(s) Seen: 04/15/22
Pitching Line: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 BB, 1 K
I didn’t get a chance to see Rutgers closer Dale Stanavich in either of my prior Rutgers games so I was pretty happy to see him enter the game in the 9th inning as were the dozen or so other scouts in attendance. The undersized lefty was a late-inning weapon on the Cape last summer and was a big reason why the Brewster Whitecaps were 2021 champions of the CCBL. Stanavich took his time in between pitches but still managed to set down Indiana’s offense quickly with a 1-2-3 ninth that required only ten pitches. It was a heavy dose of fastballs from Stanavich who lived in the 92-94 MPH range while grabbing a 95 for good measure. Stanavich’s high angle and low release height give his fastball excellent shape and plane towards the plate making it a bat misser at the next level. He didn’t utilize his slider much but did get an empty swing on a backfoot slider to a righty hitter. The pitch was above average and was thrown at 83 MPH. Stanavich has a late-inning, attack mode mentality and the intensity you like to see from a high leverage arm. He commands his fastball at a high level as evidenced by his 1.9 BB/9 in 19.1 innings this spring. Stanavich has closed out eight games for Rutgers so far with a 0.93 ERA and 33 strikeouts compared to just 4 walks (8.25 K/BB). He’ll be 23 years old on draft day but his performance and loud stuff from the left side fit well in the middle rounds of day 2 (rounds 5-7) as a potential bonus savings pick. Expect Stanavich to move quickly in pro ball.
-Brian Recca
Pat Gallagher, RHP, UConn
Height/Weight: 6-0 / 195
Year/Draft Age: Third Year Sophomore / 22.00
Date(s) Seen: 04/16/22
Pitching Line: 6 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 5 K
Pat Gallagher and Friday night starter Austin Peterson have formed a powerful weekend duo for the Huskies this year. Imagine how good this rotation would have been with Reggie Crawford in the mix. Gallagher lowered his season ERA to 2.29 after shutting out Seton Hall for six innings. He's undersized but built strongly at 6'0-195. The delivery is simple and highly repeatable with a longer arm action in the back and a ¾ release. He isn't overpowering, sitting 87-90 and occasionally reaching back for 91 MPH or 92 MPH as he did in the 4th and 5th innings. Gallagher located his heater to all four quadrants and recorded a handful of whiffs on the fastball up in the zone. His best pitch was a slider which he threw more than his fastball in the first inning before relying more on the fastball later on. I liked the pitchability he showed there with the ability to work backward for a full inning to open the game. He commanded the slider at an above-average level and kept the pitch low and away to righties with 78-81 MPH velocity. The pitch didn't have wipeout movement but it had consistent shape and played to a near above-average level with his command. Gallagher went to his changeup against lefties and it was mostly a below-average pitch, though he did throw one that stood out as average.
Gallagher lacks a standout tool and doesn't have a ton of projection remaining in his frame. He performed decently on the Cape and has shown a couple more ticks of velo in the past. He's an older college performer with a bunch of 45 to 55 grade tools. Gallagher is a likely day 3 pick but I could also see a return to UConn for a 4th season.
-Brian Recca
2022 MLB Draft - Mock Draft 2.0
Agents Encouraging Older Draft Prospects to Avoid Pre-Draft Physical, Avoid "Top 300"
MLB Draft Live Looks Week 8 - Southern California and New York
In this edition of MLB Draft Live looks, Brandon Smith and Jackson Thomas went out and saw front-line 2022 draft talent including big pop-up prospects at the high school and college level.
RHP RILEY KELLY, TUSTIN HS
Seen: 4/13
Riley Kelly a UCI commit out of Tustin High School has been a sudden pop-up pitcher for the upcoming draft. What fueled the pop-up hype was reports that his fastball was up to 92-94 on a consistent basis. However, during this outing, he was predominantly 88-90 and hit 91 only once. Additionally, his fastball came off rather pedestrian in shape and life, consistently coming in straight with occasional arm side life. Regardless of Kelly’s fastball, there was plenty of intriguing projectability and skillset that hold merit to him being a pop-up guy. Kelly has a large projectable frame with long limbs and a slender build, boding well for future added muscle and strength. He works downhill with his delivery with little bend and flexibility coming from tightly wound hips, forcing him to pitch from an upright stance with little leg drive. Kelly repeats his short arm action well with good arm speed, a snappy finish, and solid extension. The biggest takeaway from Kelly’s outing was that he can spin the breaking ball, which was a large part of his 17 K performance. The curveball projects as a future 55/60 pitch with tight spin and big 11/5 shape that was consistently landed for a strike in any count at 77-80 MPH. All in all, it is easy to see all the projection that Kelly has as a pitching prospect. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him taken on late Day 2 of the draft but I believe that he could see his development skyrocket by going to UCI.
- Jackson Thomas
RHP DREW THORPE, CAL POLY SLO
Seen: 4/14
Performance: 6 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 9 K, 2 BB, 33.98% CSW
Drew Thorpe continued his dominant season with a good outing against the UCI Anteaters. Thrope has generated a lot of buzz in California for his consistent performance, projectability, and ability to throw 3+ pitches for strikes. He repeats his delivery well showing lots of athleticism to drive down the bump and push out over his chest. His arm action overall was very clean and smooth, coming from a small tight circle path to a high 3/4 release. The Mustangs’ ace leaned heavily on his change-up all night, arguably his best pitch with flashes of plus. The changeup moves with late lateral fade, falling off as soon as it gets near home plate, sitting 78-81 MPH. His changeup had a 50% whiff rate on the outing and Thorpe demonstrated high confidence in using that weapon in any count. Thrope’s fastball topped out at 93 and was mainly in the 89-91 range as the night progressed. He showed the ability to command his fastball and all edges of the zone, using its sinking profile to his advantage. Thrope’s slider was used as his third pitch and generated its share of whiffs, coming in with a tight and short 10/4 break at 79-81 MPH. A common theme for Thorpe on his outing was that he consistently battled from behind in counts to generate outs, which is great to see he can compete even without having his best stuff.
- Jackson Thomas
SS BROOKS LEE, CAL POLY SLO
Seen: 4/14, 4/15
Performance: 2-7, 1 RBI, 1 K, 2 BB, 1 SB
Arguably the top college draft prospect for the 2022 class had a relatively quiet two games in my looks, only getting two hits, with one being an IF single. Regardless it’s apparent to see why Lee is a projected top 5 pick. Lee has a maxed-out build with tree trunk legs and a strong upper half. He is able to fully integrate his body into his swing, fully complimenting his great bat speed and above-average bat-to-ball skills. When running out of the box Lee showed good acceleration down the baseline but didn’t reach a top line speed that was anything to write home about. Lee made a good read on a breaking ball to get a stolen base with ease on Friday’s game, once again showing high-level intangibles and baseball intellect on the diamond.. I will question how long Lee can stay at SS considering his range seemed limited to his right side on a couple of ground balls that snuck through with slow and choppy footwork. However, Lee has the ideal makeup for a pro player as he consistently plays with high levels of poise, leadership, and confidence on the diamond.
- Jackson Thomas
RHP NOLAN DEVOS, DAVIDSON
Seen: 4/15
Performance: 5.2 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 7 K
DeVos has been somewhat of a popup prospect this spring for Davidson after he was a walk-on his freshman year. He consistently has been one of the nations leaders in strikeouts throughout the spring season. This is due to his above average fastball/slider mix which generates whiffs in all quadrants of the zone. DeVos has a deceptive operation that analytically driven teams covet, as he releases from a lower release height and still creates lift on his four seam fastball up in the zone. This was displayed during his outing as he was able to attack Bonaventure hitters up in the zone and generated whiffs. His fastball sat in the 89-92 range, which is a couple of ticks down from earlier in the year when he would sit in the mid 90s. It is important to note that he has been primarily used as a reliever during his collegiate career and the additional workload may be a factor for the slight decrease in velocity. Additionally, he had to battle suboptimal weather conditions as there were 40mph winds as well as precipitation factored in with below 40 degree weather. He showed excellent command of his sweeping slider which darted away from right handed hitters and was not afraid to triple up on the offering. He also dropped in a couple of curveballs or “dumpers” early in counts to work ahead of hitters, as well as flashing a changeup to left-hand hitters. The only blemish on his line came when he left a fastball up over the heart of the plate to a right handed hitter who was able to get on plane and drive the pitch over the left field wall. Despite the long ball, he rebounded nicely to strikeout the next two batters he faced. DeVos worked from a very quick tempo on the hill and was very efficient with his pitches as he made quick use of hitters and rarely worked deep counts. There is a lot to like in the analytical profile with DeVos and if he can show that he can gain back some of his velocity, he figures to hear his name called in the 8-10 round range.
- Brandon Smith
CF PARKER NOLAN, DAVIDSON
Seen: 4/15
Performance: 2-5, 1 HR, 1 1B, 1 K
Nolan is a toolsy outfielder and will be a name to monitor late on day three. Despite being a four year player, Nolan’s game still is raw. Standing in at 6’4, he showed his defense, speed, and power tools . He gets great reads off the bat in centerfield and uses his speed to track down fly balls in the gaps as he has great closing speed. He showed the power tool when he unloaded on a go-ahead three run homerun in his final at-bat that he blasted to his pull side. There are questions surrounding his bat to ball skills and whether or not he will make enough contact to ascend through a minor league system. Nonetheless, the raw skills and athleticism Nolan possesses would make him an interesting prospect if an organization feels that they can develop his raw skill set into more polished tools.
- Brandon Smith
C MICHAEL CARICO (2023), DAVIDSON
Seen: 4/15
Performance: 1-3, 1 1B, 2 BB
Never too early to look ahead to the 2023 class and Davidson appears to have a name to follow in Michael Carico. The left-hand hitting catcher is very poised in the box. Carico demonstrates advanced feel for the strike and recognizes spin well. This is reflective in his swing decisions and in his walk rate. A byproduct of his selective approach at the plate is his ability to punish pitches in the zone. He has a quiet load as works into his backside and has a quick bat path which allows him to barrel pitches. He showed power to all fields during his pregame batting practice and has hit homers to all fields in game. Carico is an athletic catcher who moves well behind the plate. There is still plenty of projection remaining in his game with his hit and power tool grading out well above average.
- Brandon Smith
MLB Draft Live Looks Week 7 - Atlanta Metro Area
Live Looks: Pac-12 Baseball in April
California is in a down year with collegiate talent for the 2022 Draft. However, the abundance of colleges here have allowed me to see talent come all through the West Coast. Recently, top Pac-12 teams have started to appear in Southern California for conference play, allowing me to see more of the West Coast’s talent for the 2022 Draft. Below are some of the players that have stood out in the early going, including a small school California arm.
RHP JAKE BROOKS, UCLA 4/1
Performance: 8 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 3 SO, 1 BB, 24.42% CSW
Opponent: University of Oregon
Jake Brooks showcased his four-pitch mix that induced loads of weak contact by Oregon all night long. Brooks repeatedly showed an ability to compete with hitter after hitter, constantly executing competitive pitches with purpose. Brooks was able to run his fastball with arm side run in on the hands of hiiters avoiding barrels. He gained a feel for his breaking balls as the outing progressed leading to a lot of ground balls and quick at-bats. The breaking ball shapes teetered around slurvey shape early on but quickly found their distinct identities as he settled in. The changeup plays well with his fastball, coming out from a similar arm-slot but with significantly more fade and sink than his fastball. Overall, Brooks was as advertised, a pitcher who can compete and get outs, but won’t overpower a lineup.
SS JOSH KASEVICH, OREGON 4/1
Performance: 1-4, 1 2B
Opponent: UCLA
Josh Kasevich consistently made loud contact all night long and was in the minority of Oregon hitters that found barrels off Jake Brooks. Kasevich rocketed a hard-hit line drive into the LCF gap in his first at-bat, generated from his plus bat speed and extension, but Malakhi Knight (‘24) tracked it down with ease. In his next at-bat, Kasevich made sure he wouldn’t get beat and once again, rocketed a Jake Brooks fastball down into the left-field corner for a double. Kasevich runs well out of the box, progressing to top speed fairly quickly with good baserunning actions. On the diamond, he stood out for his defensive preparation and light footwork before each pitch, showing that he has intangibles and a hunter’s mentality at SS. The Oregon SS has made a considerable effort in 2022 to elevate the ball more and tonight’s performance indicated that it is indeed true.
RHP CJ CULPEPPER, CAL BAPTIST 4/2
Performance: 5 IP, 7 H, 5 R, 6 SO, 1 BB, 25.81% CSW
Opponent: Seattle University
CJ Culpepper didn’t come out with his best stuff for the outing but he showed flashes of what can make him a day three arm in the upcoming draft. He has an ideal projectable pitcher’s frame with a slender build and long levers. Culpepper’s delivery has a slow-paced rhythm with a timed burst, letting his arm speed do the heavy lifting from a 3/4 slot. Culpepper did show a feel for commanding his slider early on in the game, showing lots of confidence in it throwing it early in counts and often to Seattle U hitters. The slider has a high spin rate and profound sweep, generating consistent shape pitch after pitch. Culpepper’s fastball has high spin and some arm side run, consistently sitting in the low 90s. It doesn’t have any prolific movement but has viability as a future bullpen weapon with added velocity, which Culpepper is capable of. Overall Culpepper shows promise as a day three reliever prospect with room to grow in his arsenal development and quality strike-throwing ability.
LHP COOPER HJERPE, OREGON STATE, 4/8
Performance: 6 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 9 SO, 0 BB, 2 HBP, 35.87% CSW
Opponent: University of Southern California
Cooper Hjerpe put on a very enjoyable pitching performance showing his ability to throw three pitches for strikes and get ahead early in counts. In the first time through the order against USC, The Beavers’ ace relied heavily on his fastball while slowly gaining a feel for his slider. Hjerpe has an ideal fastball pitch profile for generating whiffs, with a great combination of a -4 vertical approach angle, 18 inches of horizontal break, and funky deception. This was proven the case as USC hitters were overmatched against his fastball, whiffing against it 12 times on the night. After the first inning, Hjerpe locked in his slider with tight spin and good sweeping depth, showing he can spin it in any given count. The slider showed flashes of plus and is a true swing and miss pitch, generating a whiff rate of 50% against The Trojans. Hjerpe’s changeup began to appear the second time through the order and he maintained great arm speed while generating late darting fade.
He is able to repeat his delivery very well and pitches with a confident mound presence. What is most fascinating about Hjerpe’s repeatable delivery is its innate uniqueness. Hjerpe has one of the most deceptive deliveries in the college ranks with his upper body rotation, sling-shot like arm action, plus arm speed, and low 3/4 arm slot. The entire package of Hjerpe looks like a pitcher that will get outs at the major league level with two potential plus offspeed pitches. I’m all in for Hjerpe continuing as a SP in pro ball and believe he will add a couple more MPHs to his FB. Hjerpe would be a great comp round pick and I find it hard to believe he lasts far into the 2nd round.
OF JACOB MELTON, OREGON STATE 4/8-4/9
Performance: 2-7, 1 2B, 2 RBI, 2 BB, 1 SB
Opponent: University of Southern California
First and foremost, Jacob Melton has a great physical presence, with noticeable strength through his 6’3” frame with projection for another 5-15 lbs of muscle. During my two-game look at Melton, he consistently demonstrated a methodical and patient approach at the plate, approaching each at-bat with a plan and intent to act upon it. He is very comfortable spitting on pitches and waiting to attack on pitches he feels he can bang. In both games, Melton was consistently on time with all of his pitches, with good bat to ball skills letting him fight pitches off. Melton also has above-average bat speed and extends on-plane through contact well, as he smoked an opposite-field double through the LCF gap. He handled CF on Saturday showing solid range and gliding route running ability into the gaps. The Beaver OF definitely has the offensive tools to succeed in pro ball with likely a future in a corner OF spot. Overall he is one of the higher upside senior draftees in the upcoming draft.
OF JUSTIN BOYD, OREGON STATE 4/8-4/9
Performance: 4-10, 1 2B, 2 R, 1 RBI, 4 SO, 1 BB, 2 SB
Opponent: University of Southern California
In a two-game look, Justin Boyd showed he can do a lot of things well as a player and prospect. He has a filled-out physical frame with noticeable strength throughout his body and solid athleticism. During his at-bats he demonstrated a patient approach with a high intent to mash any pitches that came over the plate. Boyd has average bat speed but pairs it with good bat-to-ball skills, letting him spray balls across the entire field and run up pitch counts. Defensively Boyd was able to make quick reads on flyballs letting him camp under with ease. The knock on Boyd is that he really doesn’t have any plus tools, but there aren’t any noticeable weaknesses in his game. Boyd could greatly improve his status as a prospect if he came back to the Beavers next season to improve his bat speed in the hopes of unlocking more power, as a little would go a long way given his current skillset.
Live Looks: NHSI Day 1
MLB Draft: Live Looks - 2 Week Roundup
This week, Jared Perkins went out to George Mason University to get some live looks as they took on the Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU) Rams. VCU ended up winning by a score of 9-3 even though the game was a bit of a pitcher's duel early on.
Tyler Locklear, 3B/1B, VCU
Tyler Locklear, who comes in at #93 on the Prospects Live 2022 MLB Draft Board, was the main player of interest. He started the game at third and is capable of handling the hot corner, but most likely ends up moving to first base where he might be a better defender. Locklear struggled with his timing a bit in his first at bat, but overall showed a sound hitting approach. He has good rhythm and timing and a well-balanced stance with a quick load and quiet stride. He has a strong, well-built frame which you can tell helps produce much of the plus-plus power from his right-handed swing. He showed a bit of it in his third at bat as he drove one nearly to the warning track even though the swing wasn’t his best. He was able to produce some easy natural loft power.
It wasn’t his best game (still ended up with two hits and three RBI), but you can see why many are still in love with his bat. In his six at-bats he didn’t strikeout and has only struck out nine times in 88 at-bats on the year. Even though much of this probably correlates with the lack of pitching in the Atlantic 10 conference, he shows that he knows the strike zone well and is able to battle while he is down in the count. His draft stock probably takes a hit since he showed a higher strikeout rate in the Cape Cod league where the pitching is much better, but he does offset some of those concerns with his ability to draw walks.
He is a fringe-average defender at third base. His throws from third base are on target and his arm is average, but most likely needs to improve on his footwork and agility if he wants to stick at third. On the base paths, he’s alert and knows how to run the bases. He is a big, strong guy that can produce average speed despite his size. He had a stolen base in the first after getting a great read off of a lefty. He’s not going to blow you away on the base paths, but with his good jumps and ability to go first to third, he won’t be a clogger. Despite some of the defensive concerns, Locklear’s bat is what will have teams making the call on draft day. His raw power and ability to be a complete hitter at the plate will have teams taking a shot on Locklear in the top 100 picks come draft day.
Brett Stallings, 2B, George Mason
He may not be getting a call on draft day, but junior infielder Brett Stallings impressed me in this game. Stallings was hitting out of the leadoff spot for the Patriots. Even though he only had one hit, he looked far from being overmatched by VCU’s Tyler Davis who was throwing well on the mound. In his first at-bat, Stallings worked the count and wound up shortening up to drive one into the outfield for a single. He shows a great ability to make consistent contact and above-average speed on the base paths. He is a contact-first-oriented hitter who definitely lacks power.
Tyler Davis, LHP, VCU
Not eligible for the draft until 2023, sophomore Tyler Davis looked pretty good on the mound in this one. George Mason’s lineup wasn’t much of a test as Davis was able to strike out five over six innings while giving up just three hits. He had a funky, short-arm delivery. His fastball was sitting in the 89 to 91 range but touched 92 multiple times. He had average command of it when he was on. There were times he lacked control with it as a few pitches got away from him. His changeup was in the 80 to 82 mph range and he was able to keep hitters off balance with it. He had a third pitch that looked to be a slider that sat in the 78 to 80 mph range and had some decent bite to it. He was really able to work his offspeed pitches to get himself out of a jam early on in the game.
Also on the road, Will Hoefer went out to a number of games to get live looks at Georgia, as well as some of the top prep prospects over the past few weeks.
RHP Jonathan Cannon, Georgia
Jonathan Cannon may have had the best start of his college career vs. Mississippi State, striking out nine in eight scoreless innings. The 6-5 right hander was able to pound the zone all night, coming at Bulldog hitters with a big windup and shortened arm action that hid the ball well before whipping out at a three quarters arm slot. Cannon creates a steep angle on his two seam fastball, which sat at 93-96 MPH with big tail all night and generated lots of ground ball contact. However, hitters started to see the pitch better third time through the order and were barrelling it often in the seventh and eighth innings. A newer pitch in his arsenal was his main out pitch this evening, a high 80s cutter that was located to the gloveside black all night and got whiffs and jam shot contact from lefties. Cannon’s sole vertically breaking pitch, a slurve at 79-83 MPH, featured above average vertical+horizontal break and also got its fair share of whiffs. Rounding off the arsenal was a low to mid 80s changeup that matched the two seamer’s shape well, though its location was scattershot.
RHP Preston Johnson, Mississippi State
Preston Johnson turned in a solid start for Mississippi State in their loss to Georgia on March 18th, surrendering three runs but striking out ten in six innings of work. The 6-4 right hander is filled out at 250 lbs. and lacks projection, but uses present strength to sit low 90s with ease and consistency throughout outings. Fastball has good arm side run and was fairly effective at getting whiffs at the top of the zone. Slider was 79-83, tilty with above average depth. Change was 8-286 with big tail and mimicked fastball’s shape very well. Both of these secondaries got whiffs throughout outing, with the change being the more advanced offering of the two in terms of command. Mixed in sparingly was a mid 70s CB, glacial offering that served as little more than a get me over pitch. Pounded the zone all night, but did make some mistakes with fastball and slider and got punished for them (homer hit off each of them).
RHP Dylan Lesko, Buford (GA)
Dylan Lesko’s fastball sat in the usual velocity band of 91-96, but his ability to hit the edges was lacking throughout the outing. On top of that, his mistakes with the heater were barrelled quite often by Dacula (two solo home runs), something very uncommon for the Buford ace so far this season. With that said, he did find his changeup later in the outing, and racked up a dozen whiffs with it in his four innings of work. As an additional note, Lesko did sprinkle in three curveballs at 76-78 MPH, which featured good 1-7 shape and were snapped off well. The expectation of sterling performance and command for a prep arm on a nightly basis is folly, and Lesko showed evaluators his makeup and ability to battle in an outing where he didn’t have his usual standard of stuff.
SS Termarr Johnson, Mays (GA)
Termarr Johnson had a strong day at the plate vs. Paideia on the 22nd, taking advantage of a mistake fastball and driving it deep into the woods beyond right center field. There’s not much left for Johnson as a hitter, and there will be some days where he will be pitched with supreme caution--getting maybe one or two opportunities to take the bat off his shoulders. But eyes are always on him at in the field, where #42 is trying his damnedest to convince decision makers that he can be developed as a shortstop and stick there. He’s consistently able to handle routine opportunities and make a variety of throws, with soft hands and quick instinctual movements. The question is about how his body matures and how much his range at the position will decrease. As of now, he does everything well in the six hole, and plays with effort and energy.
C Logan Tanner, Mississippi State
Befitting of his lynchpin status, Logan Tanner put in some of the best at bats of the night vs. a very sharp Jonathan Cannon. Early on he struggled with the Georgia ace’s velocity, but came back in his 2nd plate appearance to shoot 94 down the line for a double--the only extra base hit Mississippi State had all night. Defensively, Tanner was solid behind the dish and received pitches well. A good game on a not so good night for one of college baseball’s top catchers.
RF/DH Gavin Cross, Virginia Tech
Cross wasn’t his usually prolific self from a performance stand point vs. Georgia Tech, but did a good job of fighting off pitches all game long and was making solid contact throughout the afternoon. Towards the end of game two, solid contact started turning into barrels, as he roped a single through the middle and smashed a hanging breaking ball pullside for a double. Cross expands his zone more than you’d like, but demonstrates all fields power in most games and runs well for a man of his larger stature--though he was slowed a bit by a leg issue in this look and had to DH game two.
SS Tanner Schobel, Virginia Tech
Schobel played better than his statline would seem to indicate, being felled by a lot of close strike threes and hard elevated contact that found gloves. He did take an elevated fastball from Georgia Tech fireballer Zach Maxwell and deposited it over the extended netting in left field for a home run. The Hokies’ shortstop makes plenty of contact and exhibits strong swing decisions, and handles the routine plays on the infield, while also flashing a bit of playmaking ability from time to time. Solid physical tools across the board with an advanced feel for hitting and the barrel.
C Cade Hunter, Virginia Tech
Cade Hunter was having struggles with velocity for most of the afternoon, either getting underneath fastballs and popping them up or missing them completely and whiffing. However, much like Gavin Cross he started timing up pitches late in Game 2--scalding a ball through the middle in the seventh inning and barrelling up a 94 MPH Cort Roedig fastball for a game tying home run in the ninth inning. Hunter has flown up our draft board in the last two months, showcasing hitterish traits and above average game power to produce big offensive performance. More attention will be paid to his catching bonafides in April and May, but early returns show a good pitch framer with athleticism behind the plate.
CF Elijah Green, IMG Academy (FL)
I got the opportunity to see IMG’s Elijah Green in a Saturday morning game against Bob Jones (AL) in the National High School Select tournament at LakePoint. Words and numbers can’t do him justice --you have to see him in person next to other 17 and 18 year olds to understand how insanely physical and athletic Green is. Against fairly standard high school pitching, the Highlanders’ center fielder reached base safely all four times and consistently drove the ball the other way. It was a good weekend for Green, but he will need to continue showing progress with his contact skills to work his way back into the top of this class.