Alright, so let’s go over narratives and storylines of this class before diving in with full vigor. The 2022 class is more bloodline-heavy than any class I can ever remember. The sons of Carl Crawford, Andruw Jones and Matt Holliday loom large at the top. A partial byproduct of that talent could result in three prep hitters going top three; a rarity in drafts of late.
Another thing to take notice in this class is just how deep the college hitters are. It figures to be a healthy representation for that demographic this year much to the appeasement of scouts after an anemic 2021 crop. College outfielders make out the majority of the stock with seven going in the first round in this mock.
That said, this class lacks a college pitcher at the top to headline the class. In fact, we do not have a college pitcher getting selected in the top ten. Further the lack of pitching, this could be just the third time in 57 years that a pitcher isn’t drafted in the top five picks at all. Hell, we don’t have any pitchers selected in the top ten. Not college, not preps either. It’s a good year if you’re a guy who swings the twig. I do believe there’s some value on the college pitching side to be had in round two, three and four, but that’s always ultimately a crapshoot.
On that note, what happens with injured arms? It’s been an especially busy year for Dr. James Andrews. This class features some prominent names on the elbow mend. Connor Prielipp, Dylan Lesko, Peyton Pallette, Reggie Crawford, Hunter Barco… the list goes on. And then you have Carson Whisenhunt who was suspended for steroids… Kumar Rocker who mysteriously disappeared after going unsigned by the Mets in 2021. He did, however, jump back onto the mound this past weekend to showcase for teams for Try-City. It went unbelievably well and the climb for Rocker has begun. And what do you make or Blade Tidwell who missed a large portion of the season with shoulder tenderness? It’s all so very complicated, okay?
The big omission here? Dylan Lesko. At this stage, I think he ends up at Vanderbilt. Depending on his signing bonus demands, coupled with his recent Tommy John surgery, he may be better off going to school and working to go 1.1 in 2025. We’ll see. But for that reason, he’s left off this mock.
But hey, here’s the mock. A lot of sourcing went into this one as information and opinions are starting to trickle out of front offices. You should have supreme confidence in this iteration as I bet it would get 3 or 4 right on July 17…
But in all seriousness, teams are starting to be attached to different players and that’s exciting. Not only is the first round sourced information, but there are certainly a bucket of names in the round two that have been heavily connected to their teams as well. 6 weeks to go until Baltimore is on the clock…
1. Baltimore Orioles
Druw Jones, Outfielder, Wesleyan
Baltimore is leaving no stone unturned. Orioles’ brass have been spotted in droves at a number of different venues, but have been especially heavy at Jackson Holliday and Druw Jones contests as their seasons came to a close. On top of that, industry rumors have swirled surrounding their interest in LSU’s Jacob Berry, though everything we’re hearing points more in the direction of Cal Poly SS Brooks Lee. Sig Mejdal purportedly loves the skillset Lee brings to the field. At the end of the day, we think talent reigns supreme. The Orioles have a ton of money to play with in this class through high picks and compensation selections. Jones is the best player in this class with the most projection to boot. Trimming the hedges to get quantity over quality in this case would be a mistake. We believe, at the end of the day, the upside of Jones is too much to pass up and Mike Elias and Mejdal land their newest cornerstone.
2. Arizona Diamondbacks
Elijah Green, Outfielder, IMG Academy
The Diamondbacks are expected to go in the direction they commonly do. Athleticism and up-the-middle talent. With Jones going to Baltimore, General Manager Mike Hazen and Co. should jump at the opportunity to add superstar bloodlines and 5-tool potential into their budding system. Diamondbacks brass have been spotted at Jackson Holliday outings, but IMG Academy outfielder Elijah Green makes too much sense here. A future outfield including Corbin Carroll, Alek Thomas and Jones has the potential to be the best in baseball if everything clicks. This has been a tough one to crack, but with Jones off the board, Green is the next-best chance at a superstar in the class.
3. Texas Rangers
Jackson Holliday, Shortstop, Stillwater
Texas was hot and heavy at Holliday’s games as his season came to an end. A lot of teams were rushing in mid-May to get final looks at Holliday but the Rangers were doubling up on the opportunities, making sure multiple eyes got looks at the talented Stillwater shortstop. Holliday possesses a rare blend of hit, power and athleticism with a sweet left-handed swing. He’s got the potential to be a future middle-of-the-order bat at a premium position. In a year where prep shortstops are a bit down, Holliday represents the same caliber player as some of the blue-chip preps seen drafted early in 2021. The Rangers have made it rather clear the four prep bats are highest on their list. That’s the direction they’ll likely go.
4. Pittsburgh Pirates
Brooks Lee, Shortstop, Cal Poly
The Pirates are in a particularly unique wait-and-see position with a number of talented players in player with the fourth pick. While the Pirates haven’t directly been attached to anyone specific just yet, they’ve had a tendency in the Ben Cherington era to go with players that not only represent ceiling, but also may afford them the opportunity to get flexible in the later rounds with high school talent. That generally lands on a college talent. Most believe Brooks Lee is the best pure college hitter in this class with the potential for a 70 hit tool. He could be a quick mover in this class and has a shot to stick at shortstop, at least until someone moves him off the position in his late-20s. Kevin Parada has been brought up in conversations a lot here as well.
5. Washington Nationals
Kevin Parada, Catcher, Georgia Tech
While we know Mike Rizzo loves an accomplished college pitcher, that’s not to be this year. This is another team who hasn’t quite been attached to anyone one player, but prior to the selection of Brady House in 2021, the Nationals enjoyed proven college talents. For that reason, we think this is a stellar spot for Parada, and potentially the floor. The Yellow Jacket backstop represents the best college bat available in this class and figures to be a dangerous 3- or 4-hitter for a very long time at the big-league level. There are still questions on whether he can stay behind the plate, but it might not matter if Parada is a .290 hitter with 40-homer potential. This is the most complete bat in the class and could move quick. Arizona catcher Daniel Susac has been brought up here, as has Chipola College third baseman Cam Collier.
6. Miami Marlins
Cam Collier, 3B, Chipola College
The Marlins have a robust farm system with immense pitching depth and some position players that are on their way. That said, those hitters are still a ways away and their competitive window is fast-approaching. Collier fills a need at third base in the distant future, and he’s also an awfully decorated performer for such a young player. We’re talking about a guy with a plus hit tool, and discerning eye at the plate, and the potential for 30 homers at his peak. Termarr Johnson makes a lot of sense here too. Keep an eye on Brock Porter as well. This is where his conversation starts.
7. Chicago Cubs
Termarr Johnson, Infielder, Mays
We think this is the floor for Johnson as things stand. The Cubbies have been connected to a number of players this cycle, and Collier certainly fits here should he fall in their lap. Jett Williams is another name to keep an eye on here, but at the end of the day, it’s hard to imagine Johnson falling any further than this. The Cubs are willing to draft young and finding a talent like Johnson on the board for you at this stage is quite fortuitous. Given the hit tool, he’s probably the fastest-moving prep in the 2022 class and could debut as soon as 2024 if the bat is as real as most believe it could be.
8. Minnesota Twins
Gavin Cross, OF, Virginia Tech
The Twins are said to be out on the likes of Dylan Lesko, Connor Prielipp and Blade Tidwell, but as always, their interest in college sluggers remains high. Gavin Cross simply fits the Twins calling card from the last half-decade, and we don’t think that changes this year. He’ll join the likes of Alex Kiriloff, Brent Rooker, Trevor Larnach and, to a lesser degree, Aaron Sabato as corner-type first round pick bats with big power and some tools. The Twins have spent a hefty chunk of time at Termarr Johnson games this spring, so should he happen to still be on the board at 8, it’s hard to imagine he goes any further. LSU slugger Jacob Berry has been connected to the Twins as well, but it’s been suggested to me that is not currently a fit.
9. Kansas City Royals
Jacob Berry, First Base/Outfield, LSU
Dare they do it again? Tough to say. The Royals shocked the Draft World™ in 2021 with their selection of Frank Mozzicato inside the top ten. We don’t think that happens this time around. Berry fits the Billy Butler mold. He may be limited defensively and may ultimately become a first baseman as a pro, the bat might be special. Some evaluators believe it has a chance to be a 70 hit with 60 game power. The potential for a .300 hitter with 30 homer juice is a pretty damn exceptional value this late in the first round. Porter is a name to watch here though, as is Collier should the Royals jump for youth.
10. Colorado Rockies
Jace Jung, Third Base, Texas Tech
The Rockies are almost assuredly going to take a college bat with power thanks to a model philosophy in their organization to build around the middle of the order. General Manager Bill Schmidt has not made his affinity for juice at Coors a secret. Jung not only has the versatility to move around the dirt, but he’s a fairly complete hitter with a mature approach and impressive batted-ball data. Other sluggers like Tennessee’s Jordan Beck and James Madison’s Chase DeLauter are in play here, but we think the Rockies will lean hard on the best pure hit tool available and let it eat. Jung is the guy.
11. New York Mets
Justin Crawford, Outfield, Bishop Gorman
The Mets enter a new era with Steve Cohen and Billy Eppler at the helm, an era in which proximity to the big leagues and prospect risk may not matter. Money is plentiful and college pitchers may not have the same urgency as they once did. After all, the Mets did go out and acquire their entire rotation through trade and prodigal spending (sans DeGrom). We’ve heard Eppler likes the idea of ultra-athleticism here and Justin Crawford gives New York the ability to potentially save a little money, add bloodlines, and continue on Eppler’s ways of drafting quick-twitch blue-chip athletes at or near the top of a draft (see: Jordyn Adams, Jeremiah Jackson, Jo Adell, Kyren Paris)
12. Detroit Tigers
Brock Porter, RHP, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s
The Tigers want Berry or Parada to tumble to pick 12, but I don’t see it happening. I do think, however, the best talent available on the board here, RHP Brock Porter, ends up going to Detroit. Porter is a horse, and a potential no. 1 starter with the full assortment of pitches in his arsenal and some real weapons to induce swing-and-miss. He’s brushed triple digits, and the body still has room to grow and mature. While I think there’s always the chance the Tigers could go their old ways and draft a safe college performer here, I believe this is where prep pitching begins trickling off the board. Two pitchers to watch here. Kumar Rocker is in play again and surging. The Tigers also like prep righty Owen Murphy.
13. Los Angeles Angels
Gabriel Hughes, RHP, Gonzaga
It's all pitching with the Angels. That should come as no surprise after the 2021 draft where the team selected a staggering full class of pitchers, they’re likely to go that route again here in 2022. The Angels have had plenty of heat in on Thomas Harrington and Justin Campbell over this past six weeks, but Gonzaga righty Gabriel Hughes seems to represent the best total package for the college arms this year. We’ve heard murmurs Los Angeles likes Daniel Susac and Jett Williams here too, though it’s unlikely Perry Minasian will sway away from his staunch pitching ways at this stage.
14. New York Mets
Zach Neto, Shortstop, Campbell
Neto is surging, and fast. He’s got suitors above this and might not make it out of the Top 10. He checks just about every box. The data and batted-ball metrics are overwhelming. Skeptics will say the swing won’t work, but New York has the luxury of letting things play out and bit and seeing if they don’t have a superstar bat-first second baseman here. If it’s not Neto, don’t be surprised if they dip into the prep ranks twice in the first round.
15. San Diego Padres
Jett Williams, SS, Rockwell-Heath
General Manager AJ Preller has made it no secret his interests in this draft. Preller has spent multiple weekends and watched multiple games of Buford RHP Dylan Lesko and Rockwell-Heath SS Jett Williams. The Padres have a tendency to go with preps, so it’s hardly a surprise. Williams makes a lot of sense here. You can add him to the ranks of CJ Abrams, Jackson Merrill as Hudson Sanchez as prep shortstops selected in the first round under Preller. Lesko remains a real possibility too. He’d fit with the pool of Ryan Weathers, MacKenzie Gore and Justin Lange as prep pitchers selected on day one under this regime.
16. Cleveland Guardians
Thomas Harrington, RHP, Campbell
I’m hearing an awful lot of buzz surrounding Owen Murphy and the Guardians, and he could come with a slight discount affording the team the chance to splurge in later rounds. As previously mentioned, there are those in the industry who believe Murphy is the second-best prep arm available in this class. He was utterly dominant this spring, possessing one of the best prep fastball you can find in this class, both metrically and anecdotally. All that being said, I think there’s enough upside in college pitching here that encourages Cleveland to go that direction. Harrington has seen his stuff tick way up this season and scouts have taken notice. He's in play higher than this, though the Guardians should be able to maximize him.
17. Philadelphia Phillies
Drew Gilbert, Outfield, Tennessee
There’s a ton of teams after this pick praying that Gilbert continues to fall, but he won’t. Gilbert continues to soar up boards thanks to his exceptional batted-ball data combined with an impressive hit tool and the ability to stick in centerfield. He’s a plus runner with an above average arm and that’ll play in their spacious outfield. The Phillies have been drafting to try to fill a need in centerfield for a number of years now and Gilbert may finally fill that void. Should the team go with a prep pitcher here instead, a few names thrown my way in conversations have been Robby Snelling, Brandon Barriera and, to a lesser degree, Dylan Lesko, should any of them fall here.
18. Cincinnati Reds
Brandon Barriera, LHP, IMG Academy
The Reds have been attached to Barriera pretty heavy here, as well as Porter, Ferris and Lesko (if they make it this far), but I think, as things stand today, this is the spot for Barriera. Lesko’s price tag is a difficult one to predict, especially falling this far. He could stick to his guns and request Top 10 money, or he may give a break to a team selecting him. Either way, that shouldn’t faze the Reds who paid UCLA SS Matt McLain significant over-slot money around this mark last year. Everything we’ve heard suggests a high school arm here. Barriera is the guy.
19. Oakland Athletics
Cole Young, Shortstop, North Allegheny
The Athletics are all over Cole Young and this is where his tumble stops. Oakland is in no hurry to compete immediately with several storm clouds hanging over their financial head. Young fits the middle-of-the-field model they’ve employed in the past and should stick at shortstop as he matures. Palo Alto outfielder Henry Bolte has also been mentioned here. The Athletics have also gone the college pitcher route consistently in years past, so Harrington, Justin Campbell and potentially Prielipp all fit there too.
20. Atlanta Braves
Daniel Susac, C, Arizona
Susac falling to the 20th pick in the draft would be a bit surprising, but there is some industry concern over Susac’s aggressive approach at the plate and his willingness to expand the zone. He’s been ultra-productive for the Wildcats and possesses a ton of tools to find success as a pro. He’ll need to adjust things in the box to find sustained success at the next level, but given his usable power, bat-to-ball skills and ability to stick behind the plate, this feels like a steal. Atlanta has been connected to a billion college arms here, so keep an eye on Thomas Harrington, Justin Campbell, Jonathan Cannon and others here too. Also, if there was one team to pay Lesko, it might be here.
21. Seattle Mariners
Justin Campbell, RHP, Oklahoma State
It sure feels as though Seattle is hoping one of Neto or (Jett) Williams falls into their lap here, but in this scenario I don’t see it happening. Coastal Carolina shortstop Eric Brown may be in play here too, though skepticism surrounding his ability to stick on the dirt may push him off their board. I think Seattle goes college pitching here. Campbell has a lot of similarities that 2018 first rounder Logan Gilbert possessed. Extension, long body, fluidity and an exceptional, hopping fastball. Mixes in a couple different breaking balls and a usable changeup and Seattle might have the second incantation of their present ace on the way. Should they go college pitching here, expect them to go prep infielder in the second round as they did in 2021 (Edwin Arroyo).
22. St. Louis Cardinals
Kumar Rocker, RHP, Independent
Rocker is surging up draft boards once again after an overwhelmingly positive first appearance for Try-City this past weekend. Up to 99, sitting 94-96 for 60 pitches, if Rocker repeats that performance another time or two, he might not be on the board here for the Cardinals to take. Don’t be surprised if he jumps into the Top 12 picks again. Should Rocker be off the board, the Cardinals do like Tucker Toman a great deal.
23. Toronto Blue Jays
Cooper Hjerpe, LHP, Oregon State
It’s been mostly high school bats and college arms for the Blue Jays at pick no. 23. There’s a large segment of the scouting community that would be stunned he fell this far in the first place. Toronto is a team that conducts a lot of their evaluation processes off an analytic model. Hjerpe is an analytic monster with some extremely unicorn-type characteristics about his pitches. Prielipp and Campbell have been mentioned here a good bit too. Should the Jays go the prep route, the team likes Moorestown shortstop Maximus Martin a good bit as well as Crawford should he still be on the board.
24. Boston Red Sox
Jordan Beck, OF, Tennessee
The Red Sox seem to be scouring the college outfield market and, fortunately for them, they fall into a position where there may be some enticing options. Beck fits a profile they’re familiar with. He’s similar to Hunter Renfroe, a guy who was awfully successful in Fenway. Beck’s right-handed bat can better take advantage of those park dimensions than can a left-handed stick, though he will be limited to a corner as a pro. Dylan Beavers and Chase Delauter are worth monitoring here, the latter being one of the best players left on the board and a guy the Red Sox got a ton of lengthy looks at while on the Cape in 2021.
25. New York Yankees
Spencer Jones, OF, Vanderbilt
The Yankees leaned pretty hard into analytics in 2021 selecting Trey Sweeney and we’ve got them going that route again, this time selecting Vanderbilt outfielder Spencer Jones. It’s all started to click this year for Jones after recovering from Tommy John surgery for much of his underclass years. Jones is posting mammoth exit velocities and covering the entire zone with above average contact rates and an all-fields approach. Those who like the profile believe he’s just starting to tap into what he’s capable of offensively. He’s at least an above average runner and should provide value in any outfield spot. The Yankees have had success drafting college outfielders of a 6-foot-7 variety after all.
26. Chicago White Sox
Tucker Toman, 3B, Hammond
The White Sox have a million names on their board at this point, with a total wait-and-see situation on their hands. They liked Toman a ton, but they also like pitchers like Hughes and Campbell a bunch as well. They’ve been connected to Gilbert, as well as prep outfielders Roman Anthony and Ryan Clifford. It’s hard to know what direction they’ll go at this point, but given Toman is still on the board at this point, that’s my best guess.
27. Milwaukee Brewers
Chase Delauter, Outfield, James Madison
The Brewers seem to have circled three players with this pick (for the time being). We think DeLauter is the prohibitive selection as things currently stand. Others that may fit here include Cal outfielder Dylan Beavers, Florida outfielder Sterlin Thompson, Oregon State outfielder Jacob Melton, as well as Arkansas third baseman Cayden Wallace. College pitchers with runway for upside also could be in play here. That list would include (Justin) Campbell who has some similarities to Ethan Small metrically.
28. Houston Astros
Eric Brown, SS, Coastal Carolina
The Astros don’t have a ton of money to work with in this draft, and they’re picking pretty low in the first round. The team has drafted some high volatility, high ceiling prospects with their later picks in recent years, and that’s the route we see them going here with Brown. He may have to shift off shortstop, but Brown could be an above average second baseman or left fielder. His value comes by way of the bat though with eye-popping exit velocities and impressive athletic measurable. He had a streaky year, but beyond the baseball card he’s an awfully intriguing talent. (Spencer) Jones makes a lot of sense here too (should he get here). Prep lefty Noah Schultz, prep shortstop Max Martin, and prep righty Walter Ford all have been mentioned here as well.
29. Tampa Bay Rays
Noah Schultz, LHP, Oswego East
The Rays are a team in wait-and-see mode with a smattering of different players on their board and several different outcomes that could come to fruition here. We have them taking Schultz. He’s a super-unique arm with extremely strong metric qualities and unlimited potential. He had Top 10 buzz this spring but didn’t pitch much after dealing with an illness. This is probably where conversations start for Orange Lutheran shortstop Mikey Romero too. Prep arms like Murphy, Ford, and Andrew Dutkanych are worth monitoring here as well.
30. San Francisco Giants
Dylan Beavers, OF, Cal
The Giants and Beavers are a match made in heaven. There’s still some development ahead at the plate, but Beavers has shown flashes of a top-of-the-scale bat-to-ball skills and massive exit velocities. He can get streaky at the plate, breaking balls being his nemesis, but at his best, Beavers is a borderline top ten value. A solid average runner with a lean, long body, Beavers has a chance to play an above average right field with a plus throwing arm. There’s some divisiveness in the swing, but the Giants are among the best organizations in the league at maximizing players offensive tools. Florida 3B/OF Sterlin Thompson has also been mentioned here.