About Our Top 30 Lists
The evaluation team has painstakingly worked every detail of the forthcoming list. We’ve incorporated our live looks, watched hours of film, consulted with industry folk, and combed through too many data sets to count. This process is much the same for each team we’ll be covering this offseason, and it’s led to what we consider to be our best work yet.
The list is organized by and utilizes the Overall Future Projection (OFP) scale. Although there is no empirical method for ranking or classifying prospects, this method is as close as possible. Prospects are scored on the traditional 20-80 scale, with a 20 representing a non-prospect and a 70 or 80 representing an elite, MVP-caliber player. These are the two extremes, with most prospects occupying something in between. A 50 OFP means we project that player to be a future average big leaguer, while a 55 or 60 OFP means they’re a future above-average or all-star player. Most prospects, however, tend to project in the 40 or 45 OFP range, which are below-average or specific role players, such as utility players or low-leverage relievers.
Sometimes these grades will be more aggressive, while others will be conservative. We’ve included a “Risk” component to help differentiate between these situations. We’ve done our best to apply these grades and risk components relative to all prospects both within and outside of each organization. It’s also important to note that players grow or regress year-to-year, and we’ve also incorporated where these players were ranked on last year’s list.
Below you'll find the top 10 players in the system with full reports of the top 5. The full rankings and reports on all top 30 prospects per team will be available on our Patreon at the 55-tier ($5 level) as we publish them. If you're into fantasy baseball, this tier also gets you the dynasty show, the FYPD list, and the MiLB Daily Sheet during the regular season.
Top 10 Team Rank at First 5 Reports for Free Below
1. Harry FOrd, C - 55 OFP
Age: 20 Highest Level: A
2022 Pre-Season OFP: 50
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 55 | 50 | 55 | 60 | Moderate |
PHYSICAL Ford is a great athlete and not built like your average catcher. He’s explosive and moves well. Type of build and athlete that wouldn’t look out of place taking snaps at running back. Thicker lower half with well-defined muscle. He has a good feel for his body, including a breathing routine. Known as a workout warrior.
STRENGTHS Ford has a good feel for the strike zone and doesn’t chase breaking pitches off the plate. He has a good feel for spin. Above-average power that he can tap into during games. He will make more than enough contact and has the bat path and raw strength to hit 25 homers at maturity. His athleticism makes him an intriguing prospect who will be able to play a few different spots, if given the chance. Such a quality athlete that he could even handle centerfield or shortstop. He has a good, accurate arm that makes the tagger's job easier. Quick first step which allows him to get to his plus speed quickly. Will be a good base runner.
WEAKNESSES There is some worry that the wear and tear that comes from catching will impact him. Could move off the position. Has a propensity to overswing and become aggressive at the plate, despite his otherwise quality strike zone judgment and pitch recognition. Yet to be an issue, but might become one as he moves up.
SUMMARY Ford is among the more impressive athletes in the system. He gets to his power during games, plays average defense, and is a plus runner. He fits the mold of someone who catches several times a week and then serves as a utility option in other spots. He has substantial upside at any position, and he’s primed to become one of the best prospects in baseball.
EVALUATOR Rhys White
2. Bryce Miller, RHP - 55 OFP
Age: 24 Highest Level: AA
2022 Pre-Season OFP: 45
| Fastball | Cutter | Curveball | Slider | Changeup | Command | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 55 | 45 | 55 | 50 | 45 | High |
| 94-98 mph | 85-89 mph | 75-82 mph | 81-87 mph | 84-88 mph |
PHYSICAL Miller has added some muscle since his college days. He rides deep in his glutes to generate power and create a low release height, despite a high three-quarters arm slot. He has an up-tempo delivery with some recoil to it.
STRENGTHS Miller has top tier stuff, and the fastball is special. The pitch sits in the mid-to-upper-90s, and he can touch triple digits. It has significant vertical movement and comes from a low release, which gives him an incredible vertical approach angle. He’s reduced the horizontal movement on the pitch since college, and it’s now a much better called strike over the heart of the plate that sets up the secondaries for chases. The gyro cutter is hard and misses bats at a decent clip. He has a slider at 83 MPH with over 12” of sweep and impressive depth. He’s able to generate chases with the pitch due to the presence of his cutter. His changeup has the potential to be great given its separation and 17” of horizontal movement, although it is a work in progress. He’s improved the shape of all of his pitches since being drafted. He’s generally around the zone.
WEAKNESSES Miller’s feel for his changeup is still rough, and the pitch has just mediocre depth. He needs to throw the pitch for more strikes, and at the very least be more competitive with it. The command of his breaking balls needs to be an area of focus because it holds back the profile right now. Only the fastball and cutter have a strike rate over 60%. He’s made strides, but more precision would be welcomed.
SUMMARY Miller has added 3 MPH to his average fastball since college, and his command has also progressed. He moved quickly through three levels in 2022, and he could continue to soar all the way to the majors in 2023. There are some hurdles to overcome, but the upside here is massive.
EVALUATOR Tieran Alexander
3. Cole Young, SS - 50 OFP
Age: 19 Highest Level: A
2022 MLB Draft Rank: 47
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 45 | 50 | 45 | 55 | High |
PHYSICAL Lean, compact frame with some twitch and present strength in the lower half. Minimal projection remaining but uses his frame and tools well. High-level baseball intelligence with intangibles and headiness that stands out. .
STRENGTHS Young had one of the premier hit tools in the 2022 prep class, and it showed in his pro debut. He has a compact left-handed swing that wastes minimal effort and is quick to the ball. Advanced barrel control with ability to use the whole field with ease, and he shows a keen eye for the strike zone. Knows how to work a count without being passive. Mostly gap power, but does not need to sell out to possibly generate double-digit home runs. Athletic, fluid footwork up the middle defensively with soft hands and an ability to show above-average arm strength from multiple angles.
WEAKNESSES Young can get slap-happy at times, which takes some impact out of the bat while turning into easy outs. He will need to maintain his athleticism to stick at shortstop long term due to a lack of projection remaining in his frame.
SUMMARY This 19-year-old cold weather prep bat out of Pennsylvania gives Seattle an up-the-middle talent with top of the class bat-to-ball skills and tools to stick up the middle. That is exactly the type of profile you’d hope for in the first round. Young is a prototypical two-hole hitter, and he quickly helped replenish a Mariners system who lost multiple quality infielders this past year.
EVALUATOR Ian Smith
4. Prelander Berroa, RHP - 50 OFP
Age: 22 Highest Level: AA
2022 Pre-season OFP: 45 (SF)
| Fastball | Slider | Changeup | Command | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80 | 70 | 30 | 40 | High |
| 95-98 mph | 85-89 mph | 88-92 mph |
PHYSICAL Berroa is short and tightly packed with a strong lower half. He has some violence in his delivery, and the lack of physicality creates relief risk.
STRENGTHS Berroa has one of the best fastballs in the minors. He’s touched 102 MPH, and he regularly works in the upper-90s out of the rotation. The heater has elite vertical movement, and the pitch misses a ton of bats at the top of the zone. He throws a gyro slider that works off the fastball to great effect. It’s thrown hard, often hitting 90 MPH, and it misses bats at one of the highest rates in all of the minors. The pitch has high chase rates, too.
WEAKNESSES Berroa has 80-grade stuff, but his command will stop him from reaching his potential at the top of a rotation. He frequently misses to his glove-side with both the slider and the fastball. He has a good chase profile, but simply throws too many noncompetitive and wasted pitches. The tendency to completely lose the zone has led to a pretty major walk problem. He’s essentially a two-pitch pitcher because his changeup is well-below-average and may be noncompetitive at the big league level. He lacks a reliable method to steal called strikes with his current arsenal.
SUMMARY Berroa is almost certain to be at least a high leverage reliever in the majors. His fastball and slider combo is off the charts and would only play up further out of the bullpen. There is top of the rotation upside with improved command and/or the addition of a third quality pitch. At the same time, there is a risk that he can’t start games at all due to his stature and lack of opportunity to pitch deep into games. He’s ultimately a high variance arm with an astronomical ceiling. The former Giants prospect was acquired by the Mariners in a deal for Donnie Walton. The Mariners added him to the 40-man roster this November.
EVALUATOR Tieran Alexander
5. Emerson Hancock, RHP - 50 OFP
Age: 23 Highest Level: AA
2022 Pre-Season OFP: 45
| Fastball | Slider | Changeup | Command | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 55 | 60 | 50 | Moderate |
| 92-96 mph | 82-86 mph | 84-87 mph |
PHYSICAL Tall, long, athletic build. Long limbed with broad shoulders. Elite arm speed that repeats itself. Closed delivery with a long stride and good scap rotation. Short arm action leading to a very low three-quarters release with plus extension.
STRENGTHS Hancock’s fastball can ride through the top of the zone or play well at the bottom because he throws both a four-seam and two-seam variation. His best pitch, however, is his plus changeup that has plenty of deception and armside fade. His slider can be an above-average offering as well, although it’s presently too sweepy, which could limit its ceiling without adjustment. Hancock has solid command and can throw all of his pitches for strikes.
WEAKNESSES The biggest deterrent for Hancock in the 2022 season was his command. Not only was he walking batters at a higher than usual rate, but he was also throwing hittable pitches and giving up hard contact. Injuries at the end of 2021 give him a pass there, but it’s something to monitor. His arsenal could be full of average or better pitches, but the command will have to play along for them to be effective as he moves up the ladder.
SUMMARY Hancock’s career got off to a slow start due to the lost 2020 season and a string of injuries in 2021. He found his form in 2022, showing off a bevy of pitches that should play at the highest level. His ultimate ceiling will be largely defined by his command, but he has the stuff to be a rotation arm. There’s variance here, and he could be anything between a number two and backend starter depending on whether he continues to get hit hard.
EVALUATOR Trevor Hooth
6. Gabriel Gonzalez, OF - 50 OFP
Age: 19 Highest Level: A
2022 Pre-season OFP: 50
7. Walter Ford, RHP - 45 OFP
Age: 18 Highest Level: CPX
2022 Pre-season Rank: Unranked
8. Axel Sanchez, SS - 45 OFP
Age: 20 Highest Level: A+
2022 Pre-season Rank: Unranked
9. Taylor Dollard, RHP - 45 OFP
Age: 23 Highest Level: AA
2022 Pre-season OFP: 45
10. Bryan Woo, RHP - 45 OFP
Age: 23 Highest Level: A+
2022 Pre-season Rank: Unranked