Of the three core Bowman releases every year, Bowman Chrome has the largest number of unknowns. This is typically the prospect product containing the most amount of young International Free Agent talent, and typically get them in the product during their first years of professional baseball. The challenge that introduces is that the Dominican Summer League (DSL) has almost no video to speak of and the stats are basic without any real underlying data to dive into. The ability to drill into the data like we can do with all varieties of baseball stateside doesn’t exist currently. The Complex, or Rookie ball, is also a challenge, more so from the video side than the data side.
Ultimately there is heavy representation of players that only have played in the DSL or at the Complex which leads to a LOT of variability in evaluations, rankings, and projections. Keep that in mind as you read through my thoughts, other people’s thoughts, and do your own research on the prospects in 2022 Bowman Chrome.
DESIGN
See my 2022 Bowman Baseball Product Preview for my thoughts on the base design. There are also various inserts. Some we’ve seen before that haven’t changed much like Bowman Invicta, some we’ve seen before but have changed like Bowman Ascensions, and some new ones like Shades of Greatness (missed opportunity for the players not to be wearing sunglasses in the photos Topps used). We also see the return of the full scope of Arizona Fall League (AFL) inserts. 2021 Bowman Chrome only had an abbreviated relics set because they did not have the AFL in 2020 due to the Pandemic.
CONFIGURATIONS
There are three hobby configurations and likely one retail configuration this year.
Hobby box - guarantees 2 autos with base cards - currently going for around $325 at major online retailers as of publishing. This configuration goes live on Wednesday, November 23rd.
HTA Choice box - guarantees 3 autos but has no cards beyond those three “hits” - currently going for around $340 at major online retailers as of publishing. This configuration goes live on Friday, November 25th.
Lite box - no guaranteed hit, but guaranteed 5 Lite-exclusive black & white mini-diamond refractor parallels - currently going for around $175 at major online retailers as of publishing. This configuration goes live on Wednesday, November 30th.
Retail formats are never really announced, but in the past two years, we have seen a Mega Box retail format for Bowman Chrome exclusive to the format mojo refractors. I expect this to continue this year as well.
MAIN ATTRACTION
When it comes to prospect products, the 1st Bowman logo is the apple of the hobby eye. For better or worse, the hobby values that logo above all else in the prospect world and thus it is truly the main attraction. Below is my breakdown of each player that should have a 1st logo in 2022 Bowman Chrome given the checklist released by Topps. And here we go…
PROSPECT TIER BREAKDOWN
I have broken down these “1st” prospects into four tiers based on a combination of my perception of hobby interest and my own personal long-term hobby outlook. As I always say, prospects are the most volatile and highest risk/reward part of the hobby. Finally, real life baseball value, fantasy baseball value, and hobby value aren’t always the same. Keep all of those things in mind as you read my breakdown when formulating your own tiers and evaluations, and as you are buying boxes, singles, and into breaks for 2022 Bowman Chrome.
Tier 1 - Cream of the crop. Combination of high-end Hit and Power tools that won’t end up as full-time designated hitters. Power/Speed combo players. Elite SP 1 pitchers (very rare). Potential for being perennial All-Stars and award winners.
Tier 2 - Bats that may lack in a certain area such as top-end power, three true outcomes players with huge power, great real life/fantasy players, but not hobby-elite, or tantalizing raw talents. High-end SP 2 pitchers with additional positive factors such as team, arsenal, pedigree, etc.
Tier 3 - May have some hobby interest due to a single factor such as prospect pedigree, team interest, general hobby hype, an interesting carrying tool, etc.
Tier None - The likelihood of widespread short-term hobby interest, and most likely long-term as well, is close to none. Plenty of pitchers, catchers, role players, hit tool only bats, Quad-A power bats, defense-first players, etc. to be found here. Hobby lottery tickets where the odds are stacked against you.
*Catchers and Pitchers are often knocked down a tier just due to their position.
ADDITIONAL NOTES
There are 14 players that had their base 1st Bowman in 2022 Bowman Baseball and are now getting their 1st Bowman auto in 2022 Bowman Chrome. There is also one player who had a 1st Bowman auto in 2022 Bowman Baseball and will be getting their 1st Bowman base card in 2022 Bowman Chrome. I will include my original write-up plus any new thoughts I may have on them.
There are numerous prospects that won’t have their 1st Bowman cards in this product but will still drive interest and value. For example, Brady House will have his first officially licensed auto in this product, but it won’t have the Bowman logo (unless Topps makes a “mistake” which has been known to happen) since his 1st Bowmans are found in a completely different year - 2021 Bowman Draft to be specific. I won’t be covering these non-1st Bowman prospects in this preview.
TIER 1
Jackson Chourio - OF (Brewers, 1st Auto only) - 2022 Bowman Baseball write-up: The Brewers’ top International signing for the 2021 J15 class (2020 delayed class), he was classified as a SS and Outfielder. Since then, it looks like he is more destined for center field given his underwhelming arm strength. But the real story here is the power-speed combo supported by a surprisingly strong hit tool. It makes me swoon. Every video I watched of Chourio was him just hitting the ball hard everywhere - down the line, into the gaps, and over the fence. Given his youth and lack of high end competition, there is extreme risk to where I am slotting him. But I wouldn't forgive myself if I didn't put him where my eyes tell me he belongs, and that is in Tier 2. I'm on the bandwagon - come join me.
Update: Whelp, I guess I underestimated the prospect sensation that is Jackson Chourio. He sky-rocketed through three levels of minor league baseball to reach Double-A at 18 years old, something you rarely if ever see. About the only thing he didn’t do well, and this is likely just being so young for the level of pitching he was facing, was being super aggressive and striking out a lot once he got up to Double A. But there is absolutely no question that Chourio belongs in Tier 1 as one of the premier prospects in baseball.
Samuel Zavala - OF (Padres, 1st Base and Auto) - The Venezuelan outfielder was signed by the Padres for $1.2 Million in the 2021 International Free Agent class. Not a huge name even though he was considered to have one of the best hit tools in the class.
After a strong 55 games in 2021 in the DSL where he put up the highest exit velocities of any 16 year old, Zavala came stateside and absolutely proved he was ready for the challenge. After 10 games at the Complex, interrupted by what was probably an injury, he finally got the callup to Single-A at the beginning of August. His Single-A slashline looks good at .254/.355/.508 with 7 home runs and 5 stolen bases. His 13.5% walk rate is great and backs up the 13.6% he put up in the DSL.
In the video I watched, I saw that patience lead to strong walk rates and plus quality of contact. A very controlled left-handed swing that was able to handle velocity as well as movement. On top of everything there is to like, what gives me that final push to put Zavala into Tier 1 is RoboScout. Can you name the player that ranked 2nd in Single-A RoboScout rankings, ahead of players like Jackson Chourio, James Wood, Jordan Lawlar, and a host of other well-known prospects? Hint - it’s the player I’m writing this blurb about. There's a serious opportunity for Zavala to deliver on a hit, power, and speed combo that is yahtzee for the hobby. I might be too high on Zavala, but I’m rolling the dice.
Tier Two
Mason Auer - OF (Rays, 1st Auto only) - Drafted in the 5th round of the 2021 MLB draft by the Rays out of noted JuCo factory San Jacinto College. He’s been a revelation in 2022 and the epitome of the term pop-up prospect.
Auer’s game is speed, power, and defense. If he can add in a refined hit tool, suddenly you have a five-tool player. He regularly makes catches in the gap that others don’t because of his speed and has a plus arm to throw runners out from centerfield. The speed is elite with 48 stolen bases in 2022 across two levels. He had 15 home runs, with 11 of those coming at the higher level he played (High-A). While his walk and strikeout rates were above average in Single-A, in High-A they regressed to about average.
The defense and speed give Auer a high floor of an everyday regular. Something along the lines of Kevin Kiermaier like Dylan White comped him to. The ceiling though, oh boy, that ceiling is something to dream on. Like I said, a 5 tool player that hits close to .300, hits 25 home runs, steals 40 bags, and plays an outstanding centerfield. I’ll put him in Tier 2, but if he hits that ceiling, then he deserves a Tier 1 ranking.
Joey Wiemer - OF (Brewers, 1st Base only) - 4th round pick in the 2020 MLB draft of the Brewers out of the University of Cincinnati. Wiemer is a power/speed outfielder with more than enough arm to profile as a right fielder. Plays with flare and attitude that will endear him to fans and the hobby. Some hit tool concerns with swing and miss likely always to be the primary factor from keeping him out of Tier 1.
Had his first pass at Double-A to begin the season and then got the promotion to Triple-A for the final two months of the season. Combining the two levels, he played 127 games with a triple slash of .255/.336/.456, 21 home runs, and 31 steals. Looking at the smaller 43 game sample in Triple-A, he cut his strikeout rate by over 10% and increased his walk rate by 3% from Double-A. It may be small sample, but it may also be part of his ongoing development. If that is the case, then watch out.
Wiemer is an exciting player and he could have 30/30 seasons in his future with a full time role. It’s just unfortunate that he doesn’t have an auto in the product.
Yasser Mercedes - OF (Twins, 1st Base and Auto) - The top signing of the Twins in the 2022 International Free Agent class for $1.7 Million out of the Dominican Republic (although he was born in Puerto Rico). Mercedes is that classic right fielder profile with power and speed and a strong arm. While he exclusively played center field in his first pro season in the DSL, as he grows into his body the assumption is that he will likely move over to right.
He had a strong debut season and finished in the top 100 rankings for all MiLB players and 6th overall for DSL players in the RoboScout rankings. His slashline was .355/.420/.555 with 4 home runs and 30 stolen bases for a wRC+ of 156 in 41 games. Had a decent walk rate at 10.2% and an equally decent strikeout rate at 19.9% - both numbers I like to see (double digit walk rates, sub 20% strikeout rate). I would’ve liked to seen a couple more home runs, and defintely would’ve liked to have seen a lot lower swinging strike rate (26.9%).
And that’s why I have Mercedes ranked in Tier 2 and not Tier 1 - not yet enough in game power (although it’s coming), and potential swing and miss concerns. Another really exciting prospect.
Yeison Morrobel - OF (Rangers, 1st Base and Auto) - The top signing of the Rangers, along with Danyer Cueva, in the 2021 J15 International free agent class for $1.8 Million out of the Dominican Republic, Morrobel is an athletic outfielder with some intriguing future projection. The soon-to-be 19-year-old spent most of 2022 at the Complex before getting a small eight-game taste of Single-A ball to finish out the year.
It was a well deserved promotion as each month he got better and better to the point of putting up a .377/.441/.607 triple slash with 2 home runs and 2 stolen bases in August. His total Complex stats for the year were .329/.405/.487 for a wRC+ of 145. The strikeout rate (19.7%) is really good and the walk rate (9.8%) is league average-ish. Add in the fact that the data is above average, plus, or even double plus in the case of 90th percentile exit velocity, and it’s really hard to find many negatives. At the moment, it’s more gap power than over-the-fence power, and I would expect to see him potentially steal more bags as he can motor around the bases when he hits those balls to the gap.
I really like Morrobel and think he will continue to be a sneaky riser as the loud power isn’t there yet. As he adds muscle to that 6’2” frame, it should come. I liked his patient plate approach and speed, especially if stealing bases gets easier in future years. I have Morrobel in my Tier 2 based on what he’s done and as I said off the top, future projection. If the power comes, watch out. If it doesn’t, then he becomes a hit over power corner outfielder that is more of a good everyday Tier 3 player but nothing special for the hobby.
Anthony Gutierrez - OF (Rangers, 1st Base and Auto) - The top International Free Agent signing of the Rangers for $2 Million, Gutierrez was considered at the very least a top 10-15 prospect in this most recent class.
The 17-year-old showed that the DSL wasn’t a challenge as he put together a .352/.408/.538 line with three home runs, five stolen bases, and a wRC+ of 150. Even accounting for a high BABIP and a small 23-game sample size, the Rangers saw enough and pushed him up to the Complex level to get 22 games in before the season ended. Even if he didn’t crush the Complex level, he still managed to hold his own with a wRC+ of 91, which is really impressive given his age, experience, and lack of exposure to pro ball.
In that first taste of the Complex, chase rates rose and he struggled with off-speed/breaking balls, but you just don’t see much beyond heaters in the DSL. At the moment a center fielder, there is a risk he is pushed out to a corner given his 6’3” frame, but he has the arm to be able to hang in right field.
I liked what I saw in the little video available - his swing is a bit flat at the moment, but the bat speed and raw power more than compensates for that. The arrow is way up on Gutierrez for me as a future power first outfielder and I am buying in as a Tier 2 player. Just be aware that the ride may be a bumpy one if he continues to be an aggressive swinger which can lead to struggles with more advanced pitching.
Roderick Arias - SS (Yankees, 1st Base and Auto) - Along with Cristhian Vaquero, was a consensus top 2 player in the 2022 International Free Agent Class. The Yankees made him the centerpiece of their signings giving him $4 Million. At 6’1” and 180 pounds and a swing geared for power, he’s looking like another potential five-tool player that drives the fanfare and teenage payday.
Arias dealt with an injury that delayed his DSL debut and likely impacted the games he did play. On the positive side, he still put up an above average wRC+ of 113, a 20% walk rate, and 10 stolen bases in 31 games. On the flip side, he had an almost 33% strikeout rate with close to a 35% swinging strike rate. Ultimately a mixed bag of small sample size results.
The prospect pedigree and being on the most collectable team in baseball alone is enough for consideration of a Tier 2 ranking. The talent is real, and if it can actualize, he can be a superstar and deserving of a Tier 1 ranking. In fact, the hobby will surely treat him as such. I still can’t get there until we see him come stateside and get a larger sample of video and results, but have no problem putting him into my Tier 2 for now.
Cristhian Vaquero - OF (Nationals, 1st Base and Auto) - Consensus top 2 player and most places had him as the top International Free Agent in the latest class. The Nationals used pretty much all of the allocation to sign Vaquero for $4.925 million, the most given to any player in the 2022 class.
Vaquero was billed as the prototypical five-tool player who, even at 6’3” and 190 at 16 years old, had defensive chops to stick in center field. And if he outgrows the position, the arm will play in right field.
In his first season in the DSL, things did not exactly go as hoped. The two main positives were his plate approach and his speed on the basepaths. He had a plus walk rate at 15.3% and equally plus strike out rate at just 17.6%. In 55 games, he stole 17 bags. On the other end of the spectrum, he hit just one home run and had a really bad 25% swinging strike rate. He basically finished as a league average player in the DSL with a wRC+ of 104, which is not what you would’ve expected given the hype attached to him.
Vaquero still looks lean and not quite comfortable in his body when swinging the bat. I don’t know how else to put it, but it really feels like when he grows into his frame and adds muscle, there is that potential for the raw power to turn into game power. At the moment, however, Vaquero has taken a significant hit from his prospect status pre-season to this offseason. His name recognition as the most recent top IFA prospect, his raw physical tools, and the fact that he is one of the headliners for the product (he’s a sell sheet featured player) will prop him up enough for me to keep him in Tier 2. There is a lot of risk in this ranking given his performance, but hopefully 2023 and being stateside will be a start to seeing him exhibit all five of his tools.
Rayne Doncon - SS/2B (Dodgers, 1st Base and Auto) - Signed by the Dodgers in the 2021 International Free Agency period for just under $500K without much fanfare. Doncon’s performance, however, has turned that near empty bandwagon to at least half full at this point.
After a successful 2021 DSL season, he spent most of 2022 at the Complex with a late season promotion to Single-A for 11 games. While his walk rate was below average, he was able to keep his strikeout rate well below 20% in both stops, which speaks to a strong plate approach. And it follows as the data shows a double plus zone swing rate. Anything that got in the zone, he was taking advantage of, which would likely keep that walk rate supressed a bit. I don’t expect much speed from him and he stole just 6 bases at the Complex and none in Single-A. On the power side, he hit 9 home runs at the Complex and 3 at Single-A in just 11 games, which is impressive.
Doncon has exceptional bat speed and has the chance to make a significant impact as a hit and power player. Most likely this comes from a second base or even center field scenario. As his body matures, it’s less likely that he sticks at short. The hit/power combo with the Dodgers dev bump is enough for me to reach a bit and get Doncon into Tier 2.
Jonathan Mejia - SS (Cardinals, 1st Base and Auto) - The top signing of the Cardinals in the 2022 International Free Agent class for $2 Million out of the Dominican Republic. Mejia was considered a top 15 prospect in the class when he signed and landed in the same range for both Drew Wheeler and Juicy Jensen in their end-of-season DSL rankings.
At a high level, Mejia’s first pass in the DSL produced some promising stats. The switch-hitting shortstop had a .267/.418/.479 triple slash with five home runs and three stolen bases in 45 games. The OBP is what really jumps out which was driven by a plus walk rate of 15.9%. However, it is a bit tempered by a fine but not great 23.1% strikeout rate. The other offensive stat you like to see is his very low ground ball rate at just 33%. The non-ground balls were heavily weighted towards fly balls, which in and of itself isn’t a bad thing. But it is when more than half of that 46.8% fly ball rate are infield fly balls (27.5%).
A shortstop at the moment, the speculation is that he could stick there, but he may end up moving over to 2B or 3B at some point. The 18 errors in 32 games played at shortstop in the DSL sure lend credence to that potential future move.
Prospect pedigree (top 15 IFA signing), current prospect rankings/industry consensus (above average to plus tools across the board), and a collectible team are all going to be pluses in Mejia’s favor. Add in the relatively positive first professional season, and, even with some warts, I am going to push Mejia into the bottom half of my Tier 2. The little video I did see of him didn’t necessarily leave me impressed and I strongly considered putting him into the top of Tier 3, but I just didn’t have enough to watch to make me comfortable with that evaluation. This, like many DSL and Complex level players in the product, is another high risk/high reward ranking with a lot of variance.
Gavin Stone - RHP (Dodgers, 1st Auto only) - 5th and final round selection of the Dodgers in the 2020-shortened MLB draft out of the University of Central Arkansas. Stone is another player in a long line of them that the Dodgers dev organization has transformed into a legitimate MLB prospect.
Stone has a three-pitch arsenal led by a plus fastball in the mid-90s and can touch 99 with it. As the year went on, his velocity on the pitch steadily increased, which is impressive. His two secondaries are a double plus changeup in the mid-80s that generated a ton of whiffs and an average slider in the same velocity range.
Stone ended up as a top 5 pitcher in our Data Driven Pitcher rankings and a top 20 pitcher in our RoboScout pitcher rankings. While a middle rotation starter may be the ceiling and thus a Tier 3 ranking be more in order, given the near elite changeup and internal metrics, I don’t have any qualms with putting him into Tier 2 as a potential SP2 in the future.
Jaison Chourio - OF (Guardians, 1st Base and Auto) - Signed out of Venezuela for $1.2 Million in the 2022 International Free Agent class, Jaison is the younger brother of Brewers prospect phenom Jackson Chourio. Jaison is not the same type of prospect as Jackson, but he still has some intriguing skills.
He played relatively well in the DSL in 2022 and about the only thing missing was the power tool. He hit for average, showed elite walk rates and strikeout rates, and stole 14 bases in 40 games. Exclusively a center fielder, it looks like he has enough of an arm to be able to play any spot in the outfield. His swing does look a bit flat in the video I watched which does help to explain him hitting only one home run in the DSL and having close to a 50% groundball rate.
This is a borderline Tier 2/Tier 3 profile absent any context, but the hobby will definitely add that little boost to his cards given who his brother is. With that in mind, I am putting Jaison into the bottom half of Tier 2.
Oscar Colás - OF (White Sox, 1st Base only) - Added after original posting as he was missed in the initial checklist review. 2022 Bowman Baseball write-up: What a long, strange trip it's been for the Cuban power bat. Colás started playing in the Japanese minor leagues back in 2017 as an 18 year old, got a very small sample of seven games in the Japanese big leagues in 2019, and then defected from Cuba by essentially not going back to Cuba all in the aim of joining an MLB organization. Then the pandemic hit and the 2020 J2 class turned into the 2021 J15 class and the team he was attached to, the White Sox, spent their money elsewhere.
Colás was out of sight out of mind while he waited for the next signing period to come through and finally signed with the White Sox during the 2022 J15 signing cycle for $2.7 Million. He's finally stateside and appears to have used the time off to good effect by looking like he's been on a workout regimen. Our 6th overall prospect in the ChiSox system, the Cuban Ohtani is now a hitter only as pitching seemed more like a side job than a real career. In the small sample we've seen of Colás in High-A, he has been surprisingly good. Anything in the happy zone and he gets through the zone lightning quick to the pull side. He's also willing to punch stuff out to the opposite field even if he doesn't do it with a ton of authority. Given his arm strength (he's an ex-pitcher, don't you know) he should have no problem sticking in right field. Colás won't be stealing many, if any bases, so it's mainly the hit tool and the power tool that will determine the long term interest.
There is also short term interest with so much hype and mystery and drama over the past few years with Colás. The power seems real and is probably plus. The hit tool was not something I was expecting to be anything more than average, especially after the layoff, but at the moment he's proving that assumption wrong. The hit tool should determine if he can get the bat on the ball enough to get to what his power tool promises of a 30 home run bat. If he can get there, he's a Tier 2 player. If not, he'll drift down the Tiers. A month ago, I thought he would be an easy Tier 3 call, but given his performance so far, I am going to be cautiously optimistic and slide him into the bottom of Tier 2. Another buyer beware situation as we just have not seen anywhere near enough from Colás to really have a good idea on his trajectory.
Update: Not much has changed other than he’s confirmed the strength of the power tool by hitting 21 home runs in 2022. While it may not look like the hit tool is an issue with Colás hitting over .300 at each of his stops (High-A, Double-A, and Triple-A), he’s not taking a lot of walks and his chase rate is a big problem. I expect that in 2023 he’ll now start to face to a level of pitching that will challenge him. Given his experience and age, Triple-A is really where he’s going to face age appropriate competition, and he only had 7 games at that level in 2022. Next year will be the real test to see if he deserves this ranking.
Tier Three
Ceddanne Rafaela - OF (Red Sox, 1st Auto only) - 2022 Bowman Baseball write-up: The 2017 J2 signing out of Curacao is a former LLWS participant that took a scary pitch to the head from a Japanese pitcher that was throwing the equivalent of 99 mph at that age. Ceddanne is a smaller stature guy that fits the defense/speed future utility player mold, although he does appear to have grown a bit bigger than his listed 5'8" and 145 pounds. He has some double-digit power potential in his bat with an aggressive approach. Prior to 2022, this was an easy Tier None call, but he has lit up the first month of the season and is currently sporting an average over .300 and 6 home runs. He's now in Tier 3 and a watch list guy to see if he can continue this Cinderella, or should I say Ceddannerella story.
Update: Rafaela was promoted to Double-A and while he still produced, it was much in line with above average production than destroying the competition. His BABIP dropped from .409 in High-A to a more realistic .310 in Double-A and his wRC+ dropped from 156 to 119. While his strikeout rate did fall nicely to just under 20%, his walk rate didn’t get really any bump, going from 4.8% to 5.1%. He did continue to hit for power with 12 additional home runs in Double-A. The Red Sox had to add him to the 40-man roster to protect him from the Rule V draft and did so earlier this month, which is a good sign. Ultimately I don’t feel a need to push him up into Tier 2 with the Double-A line being a bit sobering and feeling like the utility player role is still the most likely outcome, but I will put him at the top of Tier 3 now.
Cade Marlowe - OF (Mariners, 1st Auto only) - 20th round pick in the 2019 MLB draft by the Mariners out of University of West Georgia that the Mariners just added to their 40-man roster. In and of itself, that has to be considered a successful later round draft pick. Now add in that Marlowe has compiled back-to-back 20-20 seasons (26/24 in 2021 and 23/42 in 2022) and it likely exceeds expectations anyone outside of probably the area scout and his family had for him.
On the positive side, Marlowe regularly puts up double-digit walk rates and the power/speed combo is real. Throw anything in the middle or up in the zone and Marlowe smacks it. He has no problem playing any of the three outfield positions and is just a smart guy in general. On the negative side, he’s older for the levels he’s been dominating and has a propensity for swing and miss, especially lower in the zone, leading to average or worse strikeout rates. He only had 13 subpar games at Triple-A in 2022 after spending most of the year in Double-A at 25 years old.
Marlowe has gone from a non-prospect to potentially a strong side platoon lefty outfielder with the potential for an everyday role. I strongly considered him for Tier 2 given his results and power/speed combo, but want to see it against advanced pitching before I buy in as he struggled quite a bit more against older pitchers. Another top of Tier 3 guy I’ll be closely watching in 2023.
James Triantos - 3B (Cubs, 1st Base only) - 2022 Bowman Baseball write-up: Drafted in the 2nd round of the MLB Draft by the Cubs for an over-slot bonus of $2.1 Million and proceeded to crush the Complex level for 25 games at the end of 2021. Struggled to start 2022 at Single-A but is heating up after identifying a mechanical issue with his swing that led to a 4 for 36 start. The biggest question is where Triantos will play defensively. In 2021, he split time between shortstop and second base. However, in 2022, he's almost exclusively played third base and that or a corner outfield spot is his most likely long term position. Above average tools across the board at present. Athletic and baseball talent could easily see him approach a ceiling of a .300 hitter with 25 home runs and 10 or so steals, which is a Tier 2 player in my book.
Update: The only player from 2022 Bowman that had a 1st Bowman auto and no base that is now getting a 1st Bowman base in this product. Answering the defensive question first, Triantos spent almost all of his time at third base in 2022. That puts more pressure on his bat and, well, his bat got exposed in 2022. He looks like he was taking advantage of young pitchers who typically throw mostly fastballs. In Single-A, he struggled mightily against breaking balls, and that’s only going to get worse as he advances through the levels. Exit velocities also didn’t portend future power. My project of a .300 hitter with 25 home runs looks quite optimistic now and I’m just hoping we see an everyday regular at this point. I am giving him at least that projection still as he can still punish fastballs and just knocking him down to Tier 3.
Cesar Prieto - INF (Orioles, 1st Base and Auto) - One of the best players in the three years before he defected hitting no worse than .335 during his age 19-21 seasons. He defected in 2021 while in Miami as the Cuban team was there to play a qualifying game for the 2020 Olympics. The Orioles signed him for $650K in the 2022 International Free Agency period. Sports Illustrated did a three-part series embedded with the people that helped him defect and it’s worth a watch (on Youtube) to see the human side of how it happened.
Prieto is a hit tool over power infielder that spent most of his time split between third base and second base. He started 2022 in High-A and showed he was way too good for the level leading to a promotion after just 25 games. He was challenged a bit more in Double-A but still showed the same skills we saw previously. Those skills being strong bat to ball and a plus plate approach with a 15% strikeout rate. The groundball rate is a bit high, but that’s probably just him not being as selective as he could be. He sees a ball in the zone and he swings at it, and his zone contact rate is double plus, which means he’s putting the ball in play a lot. Even though he popped 11 home runs combined, only 4 of those were in Double-A where he spent the majority of the year.
Prieto will be a versatile infield defender that could find his way to the top or bottom of a lineup as a hit tool second baseman. He doesn’t show much speed and I don’t see the power being a major part of his game once he gets to the majors. He doesn’t take many walks, but that’s ok for now because he’s putting the bat on the ball so much. This is the single-carrying tool Tier 3 player archetype. If he starts showing unexpected power or speed, then he gets a lot more dangerous and in consideration for Tier 2.
Wilfred Veras - 1B (White Sox, 1st Base and Auto) - Son of former Major Leaguer Wilton Veras and nephew of Fernando Tatis Sr., Wilfred was a cheaper signing at $200,000 by the south-siders in their 2019 International free agent class.
When you’re talking about Veras, it’s all about that bass (power). A very composed swing with very little movement that exhibits man-strength for a player just turning 20 years old. Has double plus 90th exit velos and hit 20 home runs across two levels in 2022. With that plus power he also has shown plus in zone swing rates as well. The strikeout rate is trending towards 30% and the walk rate is close to 6% which is going to cap his ceiling. There’s likely no real speed on the basepaths as his body matures. On the defensive side, he started across the diamond at 3B but has shifted to 1B putting a lot more pressure on his bat. Interestingly he is playing in the outfield in the Dominican Winter League this year, which could help his opportunity at getting a regular major league job with that versatility.
If Veras was more on the path of three true outcomes with big power or had some more defensive versatility or speed on the bases, suddenly he’s a Tier 2 player. Until he gets that walk rate up to above average or better, he’s a Tier 3 player that could easily pop given his power.
Eddinson Paulino - UTIL (Red Sox, 1st Base and Auto) - Signed by the Red Sox as part of their 2018 International free agent class for just over $200K, the Dominican speedster has shown positional versatility, bat to ball skills, and added some surprising pop to his game in 2022.
A smaller-statured player, in his first two professional seasons (2019 and 2021, no 2020 due to COVID), Paulino hit a grand total of zero home runs. He started off 2022 a bit slow, but he ended the season strong and totaled 13 home runs on the season. Overall he had a .266/.359/.469 triple slash in 2022 along with 27 stolen bases. In addition, he had plus walk and strike out rates to go with his strong bat to ball skills and a 128 wRC+. On the defensive side, he played all over the field - third base, second base, shortstop, centerfield, and one game in left field. He put up highlight plays in the infield and the outfield, so it’s more versatility than lack of a home.
Sometimes a utility tag is a negative, but in this case, it’s a positive as it gives Paulino a much higher likelihood of making it up to the big league squad. I’m still not sold on the power, which is why I have Paulino at the top of Tier 3 but I feel like I may regret this ranking. If the power is real and he can be a left-handed speedster putting up a good batting average, plus OBP’s, 15+ home runs and 30 or more steals, then he likely deserves to be considered more of a Tier 2 everyday player with no real deficiencies.
Leonardo Balcazar - SS (Reds, 1st Base and Auto) - The Venezuelan shortstop was one of the lesser known names signed by the Reds during the 2020/21 International class. In a small sample, limited by a late injury, in the 2021 DSL season and a just as strong 2022 Complex season, Balcazar has suddenly become one of the more intriguing names from that group.
Very little video is available to dig into for Balcazar, but what is out there shows an ability to put the ball over the fence to the pull side as well as the opposite field. It's impressive for an 18 year old that is on the smaller side of the physical spectrum at around 5'10" and 170 pounds. However, in 42 games at the Complex, he was only able to put up 4 home runs. The hit tool and the speed both look impressive in that small sample leading to a 144 wRC+. In addition, he showed plus zone swing rates and 90th percentile exit velocities. On the other hand, a .424 BABIP is sure to be fueling a fair amount of that. A close to 29% swinging strike rate, almost 2.5x the MLB rate, and a significant shift from a pull side to opposite side approach are further negatives that temper any excitement I have.
On the defensive side, I really liked what I saw, including a fantastic play ranging to the second base and nailing a spinning throw to first base. Again, with the good comes the bad - 12 errors in 31 games he played in the field this year. That's not great. I'd like to give him the benefit of the doubt as I assume he was just getting to a lot of balls giving him more opportunity to make those errors on hurried throws, etc., but it's something to keep an eye on in the future.
A potential everyday shortstop, but for the moment there are enough flaws and question marks for me to slot him toward the top of Tier 3. Someone to keep a watch on because he could easily jump into Tier 2 territory with defensive improvements and engaging more of his power in-game.
Yanquiel Fernandez - OF (Rockies, 1st Base and Auto) - Signed out of Cuba by the Rockies in the 2019 International Signing period, the 19-year-old outfielder is a big power bat with a physically imposing build. Take a look at his photos when he signed and he was a slim 16-year-old. Now at 19, it looks like he could be lining up at linebacker for most Power 5 college football teams.
On the plus side, when he gets a hold of one, he's got double pus juice to take it out of the yard. The data backs that up with plus numbers on his 90th percentile exit velos. He's got the arm strength to be able to man either outfield corner. On the negative side, his plate approach is uber aggressive and I saw a lot of swing and miss while regularly chasing outside the zone. I don't know if he regularly goes up hacking at the first pitch he sees, but in all the at bats I watched, it was a regular occurrence. Even the pitches he didn't swing at were ones he looked like he really really wanted to swing at and was doing his version of the Soto shuffle to hold himself back. Fernandez does not grade out well defensively with the exception of the above average arm.
If you just look at the standard stats (.284/.340/.507 with 21 home runs and 109 RBIs), you could easily get excited with the future ceiling of Yanquiel, but simply seeing his wRC+ at 112 bursts that bubble. Optimistically, the power tool could push Fernandez into Tier 2. On the other hand, he's got a long way to go with the hit tool and plate approach before I would be comfortable getting him up there. Add in the questionable defense potentially impacting playing time and I think we have at best a Marcel Ozuna profile, which is a hobby profile that sits right around the top of Tier 3 or bottom of Tier 2. In this case, I am going to be a bit cautious and put him into the top of Tier 3.
Ryan Reckley - SS (Giants, 1st Base and Auto) - Signed by the Giants in the 2022 International Free Agent period for $2.2 Million out of the Bahamas. Reckley was considered a top 10 prospect in the class.
He dealt with numerous minor injuries that limited him to just 11 games in the DSL in 2022 and eventually led to a 60 day IL placement for the switch hitting shortstop. Given that, I won’t really dive into the stats.
He profiles as an athletic hit over power talent that should be able to stick at shortstop with speed to burn on the basepaths. A future top of the batting order hitter that gets a Tier 3 ranking as a hedge against lack of results and video. In my Giants fan heart, and I think in the general hobby mind as well given the prospect pedigree, he probably is considered a Tier 2 player. I’d like to see a bit more before I’m ready to make that jump - definitely a player on my watchlist for 2023.
Nelson Velázquez - OF (Cubs, 1st Base and Auto) - 5th round pick of the 2017 MLB draft by the Cubs out of Puerto Rico. Velázquez really burst onto the scene by dominating the 2021 Arizona Fall League (AFL) and taking home MVP honors.
Started off the year in Double-A, where he finished last year, got promoted to Triple-A in early May, and got called up to the big league team towards the end of June, where he spent the rest of the year. While he smashed Double-A at the start of the season to the tune of a wRC+ of 175, his Triple-A and MLB numbers regressed back to pre-AFL Velazquez for the most part. Even in Double-A, but also at the Triple-A and MLB levels Velazquez put up over 30% strikeout rates. His Double-A success was very small sample size driven with abnormally high walk rates and super low walk rates. Taking a look at the MLB numbers, his contact rates (swinging strike, contact, outside zone contact, zone contact, etc.) were all well below MLB averages.
Velázquez is trending towards that 4/5th outfielder type that has enough arm strength to play either corner outfield position and provide power but strikes out a LOT. That power potential of 25+ home runs a year on a second division team is what gets him into my Tier 3, but it’s not someone I’m interested in. I don’t think it’s truly an Aristides Aquino situation, but I also don’t think it’s that far off either.
Jorbit Vivas - 2B (Dodgers, 1st Auto only) - 2022 Bowman Baseball write-up: The hit tool with a plus plate approach is the headliner here with the 21 year old Venezuelan pop-up prospect. Any player with a hit tool in the Dodgers organization is someone to keep a close eye on as they have shown they can unlock power in unexpected places. That certainly showed up last year for Vivas as he put up 14 home runs in 106 games between Low-A and High-A. For a smaller statured kid, this was definitely surprising, and I'm not sure I 100% believe it yet. He likely ends up as a second base/utility type even though he can fill in at third base, shortstop, and left field. He's struggled so far in 2022, but given his track results in 2021 and the fact that the Dodgers put him on their 40-man roster in the off-season even with his distance from an MLB debut, I think it's an easy Tier 3 call. He'll have to find that 2021 form and continue with the power uptick to remain in Tier 3 or possibly even be considered for Tier 2 by the end of 2022.
Update: Not much changed for Vivas. Hit tool is still plus with chase rate, zone contact, and zone swing all showing up as plus in the data. The results weren’t as strong as 2021, but that is mostly due to a sub-.300 BABIP which hasn’t been that low for Vivas since Rookie ball in 2018. He still managed to hit 10 home runs, but again, I think that is more a product of putting the bat to the ball more than any real power. Still a Tier 3 player for me.
Jarlin Susana - RHP (Padres*, 1st Auto only) - The top 2022 International Free Agent pitcher and an overall top 20 prospect in the class, the Padres signed Susana for $1.7 Million out of the Dominican Republic. As with most Padres prospects, he was put on the trading block the following day and eventually packaged up with multiple players to get Juan Soto (and Josh Bell) at the trading deadline.
Susana cuts an imposing figure on the mounds at 6’6” and has the intimidating fastball to match, regularly touching triple digits. As starts progressed (he never threw more than 4 innings), his velocity would dip into the 97 MPH range. His main secondary is a tight slider that’s in the 90 MPH range. His third pitch is a rarely used changeup in the low to mid 90s that flashes with arm-side run.
He dominated the Complex level before being traded to the Nats, who gave him a couple of more Complex games before having him make three starts at Single-A. A lot of that dominance was the double plus fastball and its eye-popping velocity coupled with an above average slider. When he could locate that slider, it was easily a plus pitch, but I too often saw it sitting middle middle. Even then, it was still a swing and miss pitch as hitters were geared up for the big time heater. The biggest concern with Susana is the command. He posted very high walk rates, almost 13% across all his stops in 2022. For context, MLB league average walk rates are around 7.5%. The strikeout rate helps mitigate that concern, but as he faces more advanced hitters, it’s going to be a problem.
Susana is an electric arm that could easily be a high upside mid-rotation starter, but the relief risk due to current command concerns and now playing in an org that doesn’t have a track record of successfully developing pitchers is too much risk for me to put him into Tier 2. A high-risk, high-reward Tier 3 pitcher for me.
Dylan Dodd - LHP (Braves, 1st Auto only) - 3rd round pick of the Braves in the 2021 MLB draft as a fifth-year senior and underslot signing out of Southeast Missouri. Was at the backend of Braves prospect lists coming into 2022 and his performance, especially in the second half of the season, should easily push him toward the top 10 prospects for Atlanta.
Dodd is a lefty with deception that features a plus changeup that gets a ton of swing and miss. It’s a simple formula - throw the deceptive fastball up in the zone to get batters looking there and then drop the change up below their knees to get the whiff. This approach drives a plus CSW and an even better double plus chase rate. He’ll also throw a slider to keep hitters off balance. Finally, he has plus command to make it all work.
He’s easily a backend starter with the ceiling of a mid-rotation guy. I don’t see a ton of relief risk either, so I am comfortable putting Dodd into Tier 3 and wouldn’t be surprised to see him pitching in Atlanta next year.
Yendry Rojas - SS (Padres, 1st Base and Auto) - 17 year old Cuban that was signed by the Padres for $1.3 Million during the most recent International period. Currently playing shortstop, but the general consensus is that Rojas most likely moves off the position with most scouts thinking he ends up at second base, third base, and/or left field. Unfortunately, the video available for Rojas is pretty much all with the bat in his hand, so I will have to defer to the experts on his future defensive home.
With the bat in his hands, there looks like a lot of natural ability. I really like how he takes the pitches up in the zone smoothly and standing tall while also being able to take the pitches low in the zone with a coiled crouch. It looks really natural and athletic. Looking at his DSL numbers for 2022, there are some positives and negatives. On the positive side, his plate approach looks very mature. He had a higher walk rate than strikeout rate (13.9% to 12.3%) and an acceptable 16.2% swinging strike rate. Showed a double plus zone contact rate in 2022. On the negative side, the power that is evident in his highlight videos was nowhere to be seen during the DSL season. He ended up with zero round trippers and only eight of his 43 hits went for extra bases. There was power projection here, but until there is even some evidence of it in game, he's an easy Tier 3 decision and the key to watch for is any in-game power growth.
Christian Franklin - OF (Cubs, 1st Auto only) - Drafted in the 4th round of the 2021 MLB draft, Franklin had a lot of buzz as well as varying opinions coming out of the University of Arkansas. The biggest question mark was the hit tool, and unfortunately, that question has yet to be even close to being answered. That’s due to Franklin tearing his patellar tendon and undergoing knee surgery back in April. A high school friend of mine did the same thing and walked with a limp for the rest of his life, but hopefully there’s a much better outcome for Franklin.
Putting aside the injury, Franklin is a four-tool player with power, speed, athletic defense in center field, and above average arm strength. Strong college exit velocities and high OBP’s driven by exceptional walk rates that provide a floor of a fourth outfielder with the ceiling for a lot more. I’m slotting him into Tier 3 with an incomplete grade and will be watching closely on how he looks in 2023. This is a player that could quickly rocket up into Tier 2 or end up never reaching his ceiling due to injury or lack of hit tool development or both.
Enmanuel Valdez - 2B (Astros*, 1st Auto only) - Traded to the Red Sox with Wilyer Abreu for Christian Vazquez at the most recent trade deadline. While he spends most of his time at second base, he doesn’t have a defensive home and will be hidden in various positions on the diamond.
He crushed Double-A to start off the year, did pretty well in Triple-A Sugarland (Astros affiliate), and then finished up the year on a downswing with Triple-A Salem (Red Sox affiliate). He still finished up the year with 28 home runs across his three stops to follow up on a year with 26 home runs in 2021. And that’s really his calling card as everything else is pretty much an average set of tools. Maybe the hit tool is above average, but his walk and strikeout rates yo-yo so much over the years it’s hard to tell.
That power tool is what pushes him into Tier 3, but it wouldn’t be someone I would be getting too excited about. I just don’t see a regular, full-time role for him on a yearly basis. But there is potential for hot streaks to take advantage of to sell his cards.
Willy Vazquez - 3B (Rays, 1st Base and Auto) - 2019 J2 signing of the Rays out of the Dominican Republic as a shortstop, he's transitioned over to third base, and a good one at that. Not like there's really an opening at shortstop in Tampa Bay any time soon anyways. He crushed 2021 at the Complex and had an up and down 2022 season, catching fire with the summer heat in July and August, but underperforming for the rest of the season.
For the most part, he's got a collection of above average tools with a well-built, lean frame that could look good with some future man muscle added in. Enough pop to put the ball out to his pull side as well as the opposite field, but hasn't figured out how to regularly get to it in game. In video looks, he was sitting dead red quite a bit and not swinging overly much at anything else. Patience is a virtue, but it also put him behind in the count quite a bit leading to swinging at pitcher'’ pitches and putting the ball on the ground a lot. It also doesn't often end up in good walk rates even with a pretty decent swinging strike rate.
A good player, but I don't see a great one. A Tier 3 player that with some Rays dev magic sprinkled on might move up the tiers, but nothing I saw got me excited.
Juan Guerrero - OF (Rockies, 1st Auto only) - Signed by the Rockies in the 2018 International J2 class as a shortstop, the Dominican prospect has shifted to the outfield full time with the future destination likely limited to left field due to his lack of arm strength. He actually had a notable play in right field in Fresno this year because the Grizzlies for whatever reason have a right field wall that a little leaguer could step over. Guerrero made a running catch and tumbled right over that wall and after that, he's probably ready to make the switch to left field full time.
Shows patience at the plate and took a lot of first pitches when I was watching his video. Pairs that with a plus zone contact rate which leads to plus strikeout rates (17% in back to back minor league seasons now). Will chase out of the zone as that patience can put him behind in counts. Has the speed and willingness to steal bases, but gets caught way too often. In game power looks to have ticked up with 14 home runs on the season, and I've seen him crush grooved pitches to the pull side, but he's playing in a league where half the stadiums were very friendly to the long ball. More often I saw a lack of in-game power, and that will really be the deciding factor on his future role.
Is he Raimel Tapia, hitting .260 with 5-10 home runs and 10-ish steals in a part time role, basically a high-end Tier None player? Or is he Teoscar Hernandez, like his most hopeful RoboScout hitter comp, hitting .270-.280 with 25 to 30 home runs and 10-ish steals, which is a low-end Tier 2 player? I'll split the difference and put him into Tier 3 for now.
Alex De Jesus - 3B (Dodgers*, 1st Base and Auto) - Traded to the Blue Jays along with Mitch White at the trade deadline, De Jesus is a power-over-hit offense first player. At the moment mostly plays third base and has the arm to stick there or possibly get pushed out to a corner outfield if the glove doesn’t keep up.
Across various stops in 2022, some in Single-A, a brief stop at the Complex for his first two games in the Toronto org, and most of the rest in High-A for both LA and Toronto, he had a .263/.370/.433 slashline with 14 home runs and 2 stolen bases. Walk rates are above average in the low double digits but the strikeout rates are not as they were in the 30% range this year and last. A lot of that strikeout rate is from his patience and keeping his chase rate well in control, but those pitches nibbling the edges are going to get their fair share of strike calls while De Jesus keeps the bat on his shoulder.
De Jesus popped in 2021 as he absolutely smoked the ball the last 3 months of the season and finished with 12 home runs. However, 2022 was more of the same as 2021 in that the good was good and the bad was bad in his profile. He gets into the bottom half of my Tier 2 with that lofted swing and patient approach corner power bat projection along with some leftover buzz from 2021.
Danyer Cueva - SS (Rangers, 1st Base and Auto) - Signed out of the Dominican Republic in the 2021 International Free Agent class for $1.8 Million. Hit over power shortstop that given his physique and just average defense ends up at second base.
Taking a look at videos of him in 2021 at 17 years old, he looks relatively sleek. Flip the calendar to 2022 and he has noticeably thickened up, especially in the thighs/quads area. This gives me a bit of concern as I could see him at risk of adding bad weight as he ages.
Given his ability to put the bat on the ball, he doesn’t lack confidence in swinging quite regularly. This leads to a very poor chase rate. On the other hand, until he comes up against more advanced pitching, he’s successfully putting the ball in play a lot, driving a high batting average (.330 at the Complex) and OBP (.376 at the Complex). His OBP isn’t really driven by walks though, as his walk rate was a paltry 5.3% at the Complex and he didn’t walk once in the five games he got at Single-A to finish the year.
Cueva is going to have to hit and hit some more to get to the MLB level while maintaining his physique. I watched him swing a lot and while he would occasionally get a hold of one, it was a lot more what you would expect to see from a hit over power player. Ground balls and line drives sprayed all over the field. He’ll need to add more power and patience to his game to be more than that utility profile and beat some of the more apt RoboScout comps in Rodolfo Castro and Richard Urena. I’ll put him in Tier 3 as the hit tool is at least something to dream on, but I need to see more sooner rather than later.
Simón Juan - OF (Mets, 1st Base and Auto) - The top International signing of the Mets in this most recent class for $1.9 Million, Juan is an athletic center fielder out of the Dominican Republic. Billed as a power/speed player with lofty comps of Byron Buxton and George Springer, be prepared to hear those same comps regularly from people just searching his name on Twitter.
At the moment the 6’2” frame looks lean but at only 17 years old, there is definitely room to add muscle. He spent all of 2022 in the DSL and it did not go well. He had a .219/.310/.323 triple slash, good (or not so good) for a wRC+ of 77. He only put up two home runs in those first 53 games of professional ball, although he was able to show off his speed with 16 stolen bases.
There will likely still be some hobby hype behind Juan given that he was widely seen as a top 20 International prospect in this last signing class, he’s on a strongly collected team with the Mets, and he had high-end comps placed on him at signing. On the other hand, the lackluster 2022 performance and our DSL guys, Juicy Jensen and Drew Wheeler, both not including him in their DSL rankings should tell you something. I’ll put him towards the bottom of Tier 3 for the moment and we’ll watch how the arrow trends in 2023. For that arrow to go up, he’ll need to perform a lot better in moving forward.
Samuel Munoz - OF (Dodgers, 1st Base and Auto) - Signed in the 2022 International Free Agent period out of the Dominican Republic by the Dodgers. Prior to signing, he was playing outfield, but the talk was that he was going to be moved into the dirt, most likely third base, when he started pro ball. However, he spent all of his first pro season in the outfield, which, with the Dodgers, who knows what position he will end up at because they don’t seem to care too much (they had a guy with a questionable elbow ligament playing primarily second and third base on the big league squad in 2022).
Munoz really showed off a hit tool in his 47 DSL games to the tune of a .347/.429/.491 slashline with a wRC+ of 146. He had a plus walk rate (12.6%) as well as strike out rate (16.2%). His groundball rate was high at 47.4% and he only had 1 home run, speaking to his approach of putting the bat on the ball but not necessarily looking to elevate it or hit with authority. Given the Dodgers track record, I suspect that this will be a major emphasis of development with Munoz.
For now, Munoz is a hit tool only prospect that showed out in his first pro season. In general, hit tool only prospects fall into that Tier 3/Tier None gray area. In this case, given Munoz’s youth and the Dodgers ability to mold raw clay, especially ones that have strong hit tool foundations, make it an easy decision to put him in my Tier 3.
Rosman Verdugo - 2B (Padres, 1st Base and Auto) - Signed in the 2022 International Free Agent period out of Mexico for $700K, Verdugo got a somewhat aggressive assignment straight to the Complex league. He was one of the younger players at the Complex at just 17 years old and more than held his own with a wRC+ of 116.
He actually started off really hot and had a wRC+ of 154 after his first 24 games, but then the strikeouts really piled up. By the end of the season, he was at a 35% strikeout rate, which will happen when facing older pitchers (literally every single plate appearance he had was against a pitcher older than him). There was also a bit of an extreme flyball approach with a 58% flyball rate (33% is typically around average) and just a 30% ground ball rate.
Verdugo profiles as more of a hit over power player and when he isn’t selling out for power, he’s at his best. He doesn’t chase and has plus 90th percentile exit velocity ratings. Given his average arm, he most likely ends up at second base, but has the glove to be able to play anywhere on the diamond. There’s a utility player floor with a potential everday second baseman hitting for average and double digit pop, which gets him into the bottom half of Tier 3.
Ricardo Cabrera - SS (Reds, 1st Base and Auto) - Signed by the Reds as their top dollar acquisition in the 2022 International Free Agency period out of Venezuela, Cabrera was considered a top 5 prospect in the class. He was billed as a hit over power at present prospect with a strong defensive skillset and good speed.
His first pass through the DSL was not the best even if it did come with just above average wRC+ of 108. He stole 5 bases in 45 games, which isn’t bad, but I would have liked to have seen more. His strikeout rate was around average at 22%, but his swinging strike rate at 34.4% tells more of the aggresive story and raw hit tool. Add in the 50% ground ball rate and just 1 home run and you can say the offensive side of his game has a ways to go. On the defensive side, partially because he has good range, but partially because it may not be as advanced as we thought, he had 23 errors in the 44 games he played in the field.
Cabrera is getting a Tier 3 ranking based on prospect pedigree. There are enough question marks on both sides of the equation that I would avoid buying into him until we see positive developments all around. Otherwise, we may be looking at more of a second base/utility type player. At the very least, that should be the floor.
William Bergolla Jr. - SS (Phillies, 1st Base and Auto) - Signed by the Phillies for $2.2 Million in the 2022 International Free Agent class out of Venezuela. Son of a former player who had a breif stint with the Reds big league squad back in 2005. Coincidentally, when the checklist dropped, I was sorting through some old base piles and I was literally staring at a 2005 Futures Game All Star card of William Bergolla in one of those piles when a Phillies fan asked who Bergolla Jr. was.
Bergolla Jr. is a plus hit tool with good defense profile. In his 24 games he played in the DSL this year, he hit .380/.470/.423 with a wRC+ of 150. Most impressively, he had a walk rate of 13.3% and a strikeout rate of just 3.6%. He only struck out 3 times in 83 plate appearances which is super impressive. At the moment there is no power to speak of, and very little in the way of stolen bases. The may be future average power where he can get into the teens, but likely the steals will stay in the single digit, chip-in type realm.
If Bergolla Jr. can continue the hit tool metrics in a full season of Complex ball, he will easily justify the Tier 3 ranking. But caution is warranted given the small sample size and lack of advanced pitching he was facing. Definitely a player on my watch list for 2023.
Alexander Suarez - OF (Giants, 1st Auto only) - Venezuelan outfielder signed during the 2018 International Free Agency period without much fanfare. Suarez is a power/speed outfielder who can play all three positions out in the grass.
Had what looked like a strong 2021 at the Complex given his triple slash (.311/.379/.503) with 6 home runs and 16 stolen bases. However, it was heavily BABIP driven (.470) and came with very poor walk and strikeout rates (4.7% and 33.6%). His 2022 was all spent at Single-A where his BABIP came back to Earth (.298). His triple slash numbers cratered along with it (.231/.296/.412) and there was almost no improvement in the walk and strikeout rates (5.2% and 29.2%). He did hit 12 home runs and had 13 stolen bases to lend credence to the power/speed evaluation.
Nothing in the underlying data stands out even if his zone swing rate does look good. But that’s because he’s swinging at everything, as his chase rate is pretty bad. Suarez is a swing and miss power/speed outfielder that has the potential to be an impact big leaguer if, and it’s a big if, he gets the approach and hit tool figured out. If not, he’s completely off the radar, like he is with RoboScout and prospect rankings, and into Tier None. For now, giving him the benefit of the doubt as an extreme risk Tier 3 player simply due to the power/speed combo the hobby craves.
Bryan Acuña - SS/OF (Twins, 1st Base only) - Added after original posting as he was missed in the initial checklist review. 2022 Bowman Baseball write-up: Similar to Elijah Tatis in this product, Acuña is purely a bet on bloodlines at the moment as Bryan is the younger brother of Ronald Jr. Unlike Tatis, Bryan has yet to play in the DSL or stateside and we have zero competitive video looks at him as he just signed this past January with the Twins. Still just 16 years old, he was listed as a shortstop but Bowman is showing his position as outfield (shrug emoji). Listed at 6'0" and 175 pounds, there isn't much to project at the moment. Super lottery ticket territory and hoping that he is the second coming of his older brother Ronald Jr. Wish I had more to go on, but there's nothing out there. Because of that, I am sticking him in Tier None due to lack of information. However, I am sure the hobby will be frothing at the mouth and driving his prices towards Tier 1/2 territory.
Update: Still no video to speak of, but we do have the results from his first pass at the DSL. In 43 games he had a .310/.409/.393 slashline with 9 stolen bases, zero home runs, and a wRC+ of 126. Had a good walk rate at 11.7% and an average strikeout rate at 21.1%. So good hitting stats but nothing in the power department. The hitting was at least partially driven by a .409 BABIP, so there is a bit of caution that needs to be taken there as well. The results are enough for me to move him up from a Tier None player in 2022 Bowman Baseball to a Tier 3 player in 2022 Bowman Chrome as a potential hit and speed player. If he can grow into double digit power like his brother LuisAngel, or even more like his brother Ronald, then he’s jumping into Tier 2. Caution is warranted but It’s an arrow up trend and the hype train likely doesn’t slow down due to the name on the back of the jersey.
Danny De Andrade - SS (Twins, 1st Base and Auto) - Signed for $2.2 Million out of Venezuela as the Twins top signing in the 2021 International Free Agent class. Played the majority of the time at shortstop but did get about a quarter of his starts at third base. Still a question mark whether he sticks at short or goes to third base full time as his body matures. Has the arm to do both.
On the offensive side in 2022 at the Complex, he basically repeated what he did in 2021 at the DSL. His wRC+ was 99 in the DSL and 101 at the Complex - essentially about as league average as you can get. About the only thing he did better was that he was actually able to hit four balls over the fence, which he did not do in the DSL. When looking at the data, the only thing that stands out is essentially his zone contact rate. Everything else is average to above average.
De Andrade is getting a Tier 3 ranking simply because of his prospect pedigree. There will definitely be Twins fans chasing his card in this product. At the moment, he’s a bucket of average tools as well as producing average results. If things don’t pick up, he’s trending toward Tier None.
Willy Fañas - OF (Mets, 1st Base and Auto) - One of two minor leaguers (Keiderson Pavon being the other) who have sued the Los Angeles Angels over a broken promise made to him at the age of 14 years old back in 2018 to sign an official deal when he turned 16 for the 2020 International Free Agent class. The alleged broken promise led to Fañas not signing with the Angels or anyone else in the delayed 2020 class. The Mets signed him in the most recent International Free Agent period for $1.5 Million, but he’s now behind the eight ball being a year older, or a year behind, his age appropriate competition.
In his 32 games, all at the DSL level, Fañas hit .257/.330/.297 with zero home runs and 10 stolen bases. That came with an average-ish 9.6% walk rate and 20.9 strikeout rate.
Similar to fellow Mets IFA signee Simon Juan, Fañas was billed as a power speed outfielder. The speed showed up, but the power did not. Only 3 of his 26 hits went for extra bases. And just like Juan, I am going to put Fañas at the bottom of Tier 3. It’s a balance between the unknown with lack of video (he does look relatively good in the few available), prospect pedigree, underwhelming 2022 performance, and expected future profile. Someone that definitely needs more games to see if that power tool can translate to in-game slugging or not which will be the main driver up or down for his future ranking.
Nathan Hickey - C (Red Sox, 1st Auto only) - 5th Round pick of the Red Sox in the 2021 MLB draft out of the University of Florida. Hickey is a bat first catcher with the offensive profile to be a Tier 3 player and the defensive profile of a Tier None player.
He rarely chases out of the zone which leads to a very strong walk rate and good OBPs. His strikeout rate is around average. Between Single-A and High-A in 2022, he put up 16 home runs.
It’s likely going to take quite a bit of positive development for Hickey to stick at the catcher position. If he can’t, he’s going to be pushed out to the 1B/3B/DH type role which will put a lot more pressure on the bat. At that point, he may not be able to find that everyday role and may end up more of a strong side platoon. If he can stick at catcher with the ability to provide acceptable defense, his bat will carry him to that everyday role and Tier 3 viability. Absent that, he’s likely more of a Tier None player.
Estanli Castillo - OF (Rays, 1st Auto only) - 2018 International Free Agent signed out of the Dominican Republic with a ton of hype around his power hitting prowess. In reality, it looks like he was just physically mature for his age when he was putting on home run derby-style batting practices as a teenager.
With three years now of pro ball, Castillo still hasn’t made it past the Complex. This year he had an ankle injury that ended his season, otherwise he might have gotten a late season call-up. Still, it doesn’t inspire much confidence. The story here is that Castillo still does have power, putting up elite 90th percentile exit velocity in 2022, but it’s almost all ended up in ground ball contact. I also wouldn’t put much stock in his 2022 line where he went .310/.408/.437 as it was driven by an unsustainably high .474 BABIP and it was just 24 games.
Castillo is going to need to hit for power to be relevant, and the raw clay to do so is there. He’s also in an org that has the dev chops to unlock it with a swing change. Or he may just end up like a fellow Rays player with big time power that hits the ball into the ground way too much in Yandy Diaz. I’ll put him in the bottom half of Tier 3 with that hope for future power, but the risk is extreme.
Alexis Hernandez - SS (Cubs, 1st Base and Auto) - Signed by the Cubs out of the Dominican Republic as part of the most recent International Free Agency period for $1.3 Million. He was considered as a top 20 player in the class and is the younger brother of highly regarded Cubs prospect Cristian Hernandez.
Very similar reports on the brothers coming into their signings, but Alexis did not deliver the same results in his initial season in the DSL. In a small sample of 36 games, he had a triple slash of .244/.333/.341 with two home runs and 10 stolen bases. While the speed is there as expected, took a good amount of walks, and didn’t strike out a ton, you’d hope to see either better results in the hit or power department (or both). The main culprit from the data looks to be his ground ball rate at 47.3%, but that’s really not egregious.
Absent any game footage, it’s hard to know where the challenges arose for Alexis offensively.
Given how the hobby tends to treat prospects with familial ties to recognizable names, Hernandez immediately gets a Tier 3 ranking. Add in enough of a prospect pedigree given his pre-signing ranking, it’s enough for me to keep him there. But this is a buyer beware situation given the 2022 results and lack of video looks. Definitely a player to watch once he gets stateside and hopefully we get some decent in-game video that justifies what will likely be at least some hobby hype.
Michael Burrows - RHP (Pirates, 1st Auto only) - 11th round pick in the 2018 MLB draft of the Pirates out of the Connecticut prep ranks. Known as a spin rate god, he dominated High-A in 2021 and Double-A in 2022. His promotion to Triple-A did not go as well as the strikeout rate fell and he gave up a lot more hard contact. He was recently added to the 40-man roster to protect him from the upcoming Rule V draft.
Burrows has a mid-90s fastball that plays up due to the VAA and vertical break, will throw a double plus curveball with elite spin. Each pitch leads to whiffs as well as weak contact. His changeup is a work in progress, and I happened to catch one of those games where it was completely on for him. It was making batters look absolutely foolish.
The key for Burrows to be an SP3 and justify this Tier 3 is the changeup. With it, he’s easily in this tier. Without it, he introduces a lot of reliever risk or at best lives at the backend of a rotation.
Graham Ashcraft - RHP (Reds, 1st Auto only) - 6th round pick in the 2019 MLB draft of the Reds out of the University of Alabama at Birmingham. The right hander (although he bats left, which seems strange for a pitcher) made his big league debut in 2022 starting 19 games for the Reds.
He primarily throws a high-90’s cutter a little over half the time followed by a high-spin gyro-ish slider in the high 80’s about a quarter of the time. His third pitch is another high 90’s fastball variant in a sinker with good vertical movement.
Ashcraft’s biggest challenges have been his command and his ability to consistently get strikeouts. His arsenal has led to more soft contact than strikeouts even with all of the Pitching Ninja gif-worthy content. Those concerns have led to the assumption that long term Ashcraft will be a reliever, but the need for starting pitching in Cincinnati has superseded that more likely outcome. And the results of Ashcraft starting in Cincinnati for 19 games this year were basically replacement level value. Given that he did in fact start and produce some results, even if they were inconsistent, I am going to slide him into the bottom of tier 3 as a backend starting pitcher. But he’s really close to a Tier None ranking with that reliever risk and the lackluster results.
Jorge Barrosa - OF (Diamondbacks, 1st Auto only) - Signed by the Diamondbacks as an International Free Agent in 2018 out of Venezuela. Added to the 40 man roster this past week to protect him from the upcoming Rule V draft.
Barrosa has always sported plus strikeout rates, but it wasn’t until he hit Double-A this year (where he spent most of the season) that he also added plus walk rates to the equation. In his 110 games at Double-A this year he put together a .277/.374/.438 triple slash with 12 home runs and 22 stolen bases for a wRC+ of 111 (Texas League stats tend to be a bit inflated).
An excellent defensive center fielder with strong plate skills and speed on the base paths will find a way to get an MLB job. I don’t foresee much future pop as the 12 home runs he put up this year may have been more league driven. A fourth outfielder on a competitive team or an everyday starter on a bottom half of the league team is what I currently see here. That’s a bit of gray area between the bottom of Tier 3 and top of Tier None for me, but given that he popped this year and was just given that proverbial vote of confidence from the org by getting onto the 40 man roster, I’ll lean Tier 3 for now.
JoJo Blackmon - OF (Rangers, 1st Auto only) - A two-sport star in high school, the Rangers took Blackmon in the 11th round of the 2021 MLB draft and signed him to an overslot deal out of the Florida prep ranks. A wide receiver no more, I expect it will take Blackmon some time to turn his athletic talents into baseball skills as he’s barely had a year to 100% focus on baseball.
On the positive side, as one would expect of a former wide receiver, Blackmon has speed for days. He’s also got burgeoning power with 9 home runs in 54 games in 2022. His 90th percentile exit velocity is elite, lending credence to the future power potential. On the negative side, he’s got significant hit tool concerns. While he doesn’t chase and remains patient at the plate which keeps his walk rates up, he strikes out way too much (around 38% of the time in 2022). His zone swing and zone contact rates are below average and I saw plenty of swing and miss when watching his video.
With Blackmon, you can squint and see a future power/speed athletic outfielder. But he’s going to need to get the hit tool to at least average if not more than that to be able to engage that future potential. And that’s why I have him in the bottom half of Tier 3 - an extreme risk profile that will likely take quite some time to mature and just may never be able to hit enough for it to matter.
Yerlin Confidan - OF (Reds, 1st Base and Auto) - Signed during the 2019 International Free Agency period by the Reds out of the Dominican Republic for $200K. His power is off the charts, has an above average to plus arm strength, and can run when getting up to speed. He has major deficiencies when it comes to his hit tool and his defensive chops in the outfield.
Had a lower body injury (that’s all I could find, hopefully it was a safe for work part of the lower body) that kept him out for most of May, June, and July before returning in August. With that injury, we only got 23 games spread between the Complex and Single-A for Confidan in 2022. With that small sample, I’m going to call it an incomplete grade and give him the benefit of the doubt by ranking him in Tier 3. Someone with his max and 90th percentile exit velocities at least deserve short term hobby interest as a power hitter capable of smashing 30 - 40 home runs if he can get his hit tool to even an average level of usage.
Logan Cerny - OF (Phillies*, 1st Auto only) - 2022 Bowman Baseball write-up: The Phillies 10th round pick in the 2021 MLB Draft was traded to the Astros for backup catcher Garrett Stubbs. It was a very head-scratching move as I would've thought someone with Cerny's raw tools would be worth more than a backup catcher, but maybe the Phillies know something we don't once they got Cerny in the building. Going off just what we know, Cerny is a toolsy outfielder that in the right hands could turn into an attractive major league piece. The power-speed combo with plus outfield defense is brought down by a poor approach and contact issues. These struggles have persisted since he's gotten into affiliated ball and is what keeps him in Tier 3. I love seeing him get all 185 pounds of his frame whipping around on a home run ball, but if we don't get to see that often enough with hit tool and approach improvements, he loses relevancy fast and suddenly this trade doesn't look as bad for the Phillies as it did at first blush.
Update: Further solidifying his power speed raw talent in 2022. Hit 15 home runs and stole 35 bases in Single-A this year. Walk rate was 12.6% and strikeout rate was 29.6%. Fringe zone swing and average zone contact rates with strong chase rates. Potentially trending towards a three true outcomes hitter but will need to maintain current levels as he faces more advanced pitching to be able to find that everyday role. Still a Tier 3 player, but if that strikeout rate gets worse as he moves up the levels, which often happens, it would potentially kill any chance for an everyday job and push him down into Tier None.
Maikel Garcia - SS (Royals, 1st Auto only) - Signed as an International Free Agent by the Royals in 2016, Garcia toiled in Rookie ball for three years before the Pandemic hit. It looks like he put the time off to good use as he came back a much more advanced player and hit and ran his way through the levels in 2021 and 2022 all the way to making his debut this past season.
Garcia posts average or better walk and strikeout rates paired with strong contact skills. He runs a lot and had 39 stolen bases between Double-A and Triple-A in 2022. He’s putting up batting averages between .274 and .318 at every stop these past two years. The only element that was missing in the past that has started to show up in 2022 is his power. He hit 11 home runs in 2022 when he’s never reached 5 in a season prior.
With the defensive chops to stick at shortstop, he should be able to play anywhere in the infield if he’s blocked by the Witt/Mondesi depth chart. Add in the hit and speed tools that are already present and he’s basically a Tier 3 player. If we continue to see the upward trend in power, then Garcia just needs a full time opportunity to cement that ranking and perhaps be considered for more.
Won-Bin Cho - OF (Cardinals, 1st Base and Auto) - First amateur Asian signing of the Cardinals organization in their history when the got Cho to ink a $500K deal during the 2022 International Free Agent signing period. Had some viral notoriety when he had BP videos of smashing balls over the right field stadium walls prior to signing.
While currently playing both center field and left field, he likely ends up in a corner outfield as he grows into his 6’3” body. Has good bat speed and a patient approach as he doesn’t chase, but there is in zone swing and miss as he sported a 27.4% swinging strike rate. In his 100 plate appearances at the Complex, he had 20 walks and 27 strikeouts, which equals out to a 20% walk rate and a 27% strikeout rate. Isn’t baseball math simple! Really, it’s not, I never have enough fingers to figure it out unless it’s exactly like this circumstance.
Another small sample cautionary statement here and someone to watch their development closely over the next few years. In general, I would be more inclined to give this profile absent context a Tier None ranking with a wait and see designation. With the context of a collectable team, the asian market interest, and some small social media fame, Cho gets a bump into Tier 3.
Yordanny De Los Santos - SS (Pirates, 1st Base and Auto) - The Pirates top signing of the 2022 International Free Agent class out of the Dominican Republic for $1.2 Million. Does anyone else think John Wick (Jardani) when they see the name Yordanny? No? Guess I’ve been watching too much of Mister Wick.
De Los Santos is a hit over power prospect with above average to plus speed. Currently playing shotstop but speculation is that he may have to move over to third base at maturity.
In his first pro season in the DSL, he had average top line results, but I really liked seeing a 13.7% walk rate and 19.2% strikeout rate. He also added 14 steals to the tally but just one home run.
I like what I’ve seen of De Los Santos, little that there is of it. But without any power in his approach, the ceiling is capped and I’ll put him in my Tier 3 grouping.
Luis Meza - C (Blue Jays, 1st Base and Auto) - The Blue Jays top signing of the 2022 International Free Agent class out of Venezuela for just over $2 Million. There isn’t much to go on with Meza given the lack of DSL video, but he’s reported to have above average hit and power tools with the defensive chops to stick behind the plate. His performance in the DSL was not exactly inspiring and he did not make it into Drew Wheeler or Juicy Jensen’s top DSL player lists. With all that and the catcher penalty, I probably should have him in my Tier None. But given the high signing bonus, top 40 international prospect status, and positive reports leading up to the signing, I am going to slide him into the bottom of Tier 3.
Tier None
Brandol Mezquita - OF (Braves, 1st Auto only) - Part of the group of International signings of the Braves that had their contracts voided due to the Atlanta front office breaking the already loosely followed rules of MLB international free agency. Mezquita ended up re-signing with the Braves after all of that and has shown some promise, at least at first glance.
Mezquita is an athletic-looking outfielder that has a good enough arm to play either corner and I've seen him make accurate throws from right field to nail runners at home plate. He's put up high batting averages and OBPs with above average walk rates while also showing speed on the basepaths. Power is the glaring omission with a total of 11 home runs across 4 years of professional baseball. This lines up with what I've watched where he mostly shows gap power, even with grooved pitches. His frame looks like it could put on more muscle and suddenly that could turn into over the fence power, but I won't hold my breath.
When you take a deeper look, you see a lot of his higher batting averages are very BABIP driven. That's also made up for his below average strikeout and swinging strike rates. Currently Mezquita is a collection of average or below average tools that doesn't have anything special data wise and very underwhelming RoboScout comps. Given what I've seen, he's in that 4th or 5th outfielder range that I can't find my way to putting him anywhere but towards the top of Tier None.
Adrian Placencia - 2B (Angels, 1st Base and Auto) - Signed for just over $1 Million from the Dominican Republic in the 2019 International Free Agent class. He’s a switch-hitting middle infielder with an aesthetically pleasing swing that likely ends up as a second base/utility player in the big leagues.
Placencia spent all over 2022 at the Single-A level and had a much better season than his previous season at the Complex. He put together a .254/.387/.427 slashline with 13 home runs and 21 stolen bases. His walk rate is a huge plus, putting up 16% in back to back seasons now. Unfortunately, the strikeout rate isn’t as nice, coming in at 28% in 2021 and 30% in 2022.
At a high level, he seems to do everything good, but nothing exceptional. I saw a LOT of ground ball contact even though the numbers don’t back that up. He was very patient which led to the strong walk rates and he was able to cover the lower half of the strike zone really well. Anything up in the strike zone was a swing and miss or foul ball type contact more often than not. Looking at the data, the lack of zone contact was one of the biggest drags on his profile.
He’s on the fringe of Tier 3 and Tier None. With a strikeout rate like he’s put up the past two years in the lower levels of the minors, it keeps him out of Tier 3. If he fixes that and gets to an everyday regular profile, then he easily jumps into Tier 3 and possibly can climb higher.
Erick Hernandez - OF (White Sox, 1st Base and Auto) - Signed out of the Dominican for $1 Million in the most recent International Free Agent class. Hernandez is another in a long line of skinny, athletic middle infielders or outfielders that get signed in IFA classes. In this case, Hernandez was seen as more of a hit over power player.
In 38 DSL games this year, he had a below average offensive output. His triple slash was .227/.333/.291 with zero home runs and 4 stolen bases for a wRC+ of 83. His walk and strikeout rates were both above average and his groundball rate was a little bit too high at 47.1%.
With almost no video to speak of, not much prospect hype, being off of most prospect radars, and an underwhelming first run through the DSL, Hernandez is going to be in my Tier None. This is a tentative ranking that could easily change with more games and video to judge off of.
Maikol Hernandez - SS (Orioles, 1st Base and Auto) - Headlining the 2020 delayed International free agent class of the Orioles, the Venezuelan shortstop signed for $1.2 Million and had a fair amount of hype because of it. He projected as an athletic and physically mature defender that would hopefully grow into a potent power/speed hitter. Given his 6’3” frame, adding in 20 - 40 pounds of muscle by his mid-20s does lead to that vision of a 25-home-run hitter.
Unfortunately, in his first two seasons of pro ball, Hernandez has been overmatched on the offensive side of the game. In 42 games of Complex ball, he hit .155/.280/.203 with 7 stolen bases, zero home runs, and a wRC+ of 51. Including his 2021 DSL experience, he still has ZERO home runs. His swinging strike rate was also really bad at 34.3%. About the only positive I could find is that his chase rate was in the plus range.
I did like the defensive clips I could find of his Complex ball games, but that alone is not enough to get him out of Tier None. While I was tempted to put him into the bottom of Tier 3 given he was a Top 30-ish name coming out of his IFA class and he got the standard lofty comp treatment (Carlos Correa), there has to be something done with the bat for me to be willing to move him up.
Tyler Collins - OF (Braves, 1st Auto only) - 8th round pick in the 2021 MLB draft by the Atlanta Braves out of the Texas prep ranks. Collins is double plus speedster with a put the ball in play approach at the plate.
His small sample intro of 23 games to pro ball in 2021 at the Complex resulted in 12 stolen bases, .347/.424/.453 slashline, and a 140 wRC+. Although fueled by a huge BABIP of .500, it’s evidence of his speed driving a high batting average, OBP, and BABIP type numbers. I’m quoting 2021 results because he had just 4 games played in 2022, all at the Complex, in mid June. I can’t find any info on the reason behind this, but until I’m told otherwise, I’m just going to asume some insert random injury here type of situation.
Essentially an incomplete grade because his sample size is so small and I don’t know the source of his absence, so I’m sticking him in Tier None. If he comes back guns blazing in 2023, we should see a stolen base maven with an approach to maximize that who can cover tons of ground in center field. That could vault him into Tier 3 as a future leadoff hitter.
Daniel Vazquez - SS (Royals, 1st Base and Auto) - The Royals’ top International signing in the 2021 class out of the Dominican Republic for $1.5 Million. Skinny, fluid athlete that should have no problem sticking at the shortstop position. Played in the DSL in 2021 and skipped the Complex level to go straight to Single-A ball in 2022. While that confidence from the team is encouraging, the resulting performance was not.
Those 2022 results were a .195/.265/.229 slashline with 0 home runs and 10 stolen bases. It came with subpar walk and strikeout rates (8.6%/26.3%) and a wRC+ of 43.
If you’re buying in on Vazquez, you're doing so on the prospect pedigree of being the top signing of the Royals and top 25 International prospect along with dreaming of him adding plenty of strength to the frame as he physically matures. For the moment, he has to be a Tier None player given his back to back seasons of poor results. However, he is a player to watch to see if anything finally clicks.
Liam Spence - 1B/SS/2B (Cubs, 1st Auto only) - Drafted in the 5th round of the 2021 MLB draft by the Cubs out of the University of Tennessee. The Australian born Spence showed strong hit tool and OBP skills in college.
While the hit tool hasn’t shown up yet in the minors, he is still producing plus or better OBP’s including a 15.4% walk rate in 2022 at Single-A. Everything else has been average to subpar from power to speed to wRC+.
The thing that is the least promising is that the Cubs have been playing Spence at first base more than any other position even though he was mainly a shortstop in college. That is going to put a lot more pressure on his bat to perform and with power not being in the profile, at least not currently, it’s going to be a tall mountain to climb to make it to the majors. Trending towards a utility profile that is a Tier None hobby chase for now.
Junior Perez - OF (Athletics, 1st Base and Auto) - Signed by the Padres during the 2017 International Free Agency period, Perez was traded to the A’s in 2020 for Jorge Mateo. Once seen as a potential power/speed prospect, his thickening body type seems to suggest it may not be that way in the future.
Perez repeated Single-A in 2022 after a poor 2021, and did somewhat better this time around. He cut his strikeout rate down from 37% to a still not great 31% and put up 15 home runs instead of the 8 in 2021. He also, despite the added mass, stole 32 bases. He’s regularly had above average to plus walk rates and he stayed true to that with a 14.5% rate in 2022.
I don’t see Perez as a future everyday player given his swing and miss issues. When he does connect, the exit velocities do look good, but it just doesn’t seem like it will happen enough to move him beyond a 4th outfielder type. A Tier None player for now, but some hit tool growth could lead to consideration for Tier 3.
Alexander Ovalles - 1B/OF (Rays, 1st Auto only) - Now in his third organization after being part of two MLB talent for prospects trades, I always contemplate whether that’s a good thing or a bad thing. It’s a cop out, but the answer is almost always, it depends. He was the player to be named later sent from the Cubs to the Rangers for Cole Hamels in 2018 and then part of three prospects that were sent to the Rays for Nathaniel Lowe in 2021.
Ovalles also had an interesting MiLB season in 2022 in which he spent most of it in High-A. However, there were a couple of weird moves to higher levels. He went to Triple-A at the end of May for three games and then right back down to High-A. And then in late June/early July, he got 10 games in Double-A before again going back down to High-A. Usually, it’s pretty linear in call-ups, but perhaps that Triple-A call up was injury/COVID filler related. And he didn’t do much in his Double-A cup of coffee, so I suppose they decided he wasn’t ready. I couldn’t find any reasons, so I am left scratching my head.
Ignoring the upper MiLB level statlines, he put up a .273/.368/.483 triple slash with 14 home runs and nine stolen bases. Had a plus walk rate of 11.7% and a solid strikeout rate at just above 20%. His ground ball rate was almost 50%, which was a pretty big jump from an average rate in 2021. Yet somehow he put a career-high 14 home runs, so that really has me saying “go figure”. Watching a lot of those home runs, it’s not really bat speed or raw power driving the ball over the fence, but more that he is squaring the ball up so well through the zone. And that makes sense given the strong bat to ball skills and his patient plate approach as he waits for pitches to hit or take a walk.
Ovalles profiles as a hit over power plus OBP switch-hitting utility player with strong glove work that can make some highlight reel catches. While the Marcus Semien RoboScout comp is very enticing, the rest of the comps are much more in line with what his profile likely is - something like a cross between Tyler Saladino and Abraham Toro. A good bench player that you would love to have on your baseball team that can fill multiple roles, but very little to get excited about from a hobby perspective. A Tier None player that might get some minor interest when debuting, but not much else.
Kevin Kendall - SS (Mets, 1st Auto only) - Drafted in the 7th round of the 2021 MLB draft by the Mets out of UCLA. Versatile defender that will likely find a home somewhere up the middle or more likely as a utility option to fill in at shortstop, second base, and center field as the team needs to dictate.
Hit over power with a good plate approach that gets an incomplete grade in 2022 due to injury. Only had 3 games in Single-A before the injury and then got 20 games in the Arizona Fall League, but it's hard to draw any conclusions from those stints. So Kendall is getting a Tier None ranking but it’s more along the lines of a TBD ranking to see how he comes back in 2023.
Jake Rucker - 3B/1B (Twins, 1st Auto only) - Drafted in the 7th round of the 2021 MLB draft by the Twins out of the University of Tennessee. He’s played all over the infield and a little bit in left field since his college days, but seems destined for either infield corner or left field long term. The pressure on the bat will be significant and Rucker hasn’t shown much in that department to instill confidence that he can get to an everyday role. About the only positive was his zone contact rates were plus, but everything else is pretty much average across the board. And his power output is below average, which just won’t play with his defensive profile.
He’s a Tier None player until he can show a plus tool, and hopefully that is the power tool.
Jaden Rudd - OF (Blue Jays, 1st Auto only) - Drafted in the 7th round of the 2021 MLB draft by the Blue Jays out of the Florida prep ranks. However, since he was born on a U.S. Air Force base in the United Kingdom, he actually has played for the Great Britain national team in their qualifying rounds for the upcoming 2023 World Baseball Classic.
Rudd spent all of 2022 at the Complex, just as he did in 2021 after being drafted. He’s got some speed and has plus walk and strikeout rates. Beyond there, everything else is average or fringe. His compact swing is geared to get the ball in play and he just didn’t do it enough to make an impact since he’s gotten to pro ball.
For now, I’m putting Rudd in Tier None. If he can get the quality of contact back on track and/or shine in the WBC, there is an easy path into Tier 3 for him.
Quincy Hamilton - OF (Astros, 1st Auto only) - College senior taken in the 5th round by the Astros in the 2021 MLB draft out of Wright State. The Astros system is one of the weaker ones in baseball mostly due to the draft pick penalties from their cheating scandal. Hamilton debuted as an older player in Single-A in 2021, and started the 2022 season back at the same level. Given his age and experience, he took advantage of the young competition at Single-A as well as High-A once promoted there at the end of May. With the Astros system being threadbare, Hamilton was getting a bit of buzz through the summer given his performance and very few other names to focus on in the org besides High-A outfield teammate Colin Barber and fireballer Hunter Brown.
When Hamilton finally made it up to a more age-appropriate level in August with the Astros Double-A affiliate, the results were a lot less encouraging.
In Double-A, the triple slash was .206/.320/.341 with four home runs and seven stolen bases. That pales in comparison to the .308/.425/.508 with 13 home runs and 20 stolen bases he had compiled between Single-A and High-A in 2022. All this is to say, don’t get fooled by the final overall 2022 statline. Is the Double-A statline the real Quincy Hamilton? It’s probably not that bad, but it leads to plenty of questions. Those questions are mostly around if there is actually a big league starter that could put up 20 home runs and 15 steals, or more of a 4th outfielder type.
At this point, Hamilton’s ceiling seems pretty low, but his floor is decently high given his OBP approach and strong walk rates. He’s likely a big leaguer, but it’s a second division regular or bench bat, which falls in line with other Tier None profiles.
Benjamin Cowles - 2B (Yankees, 1st Auto only) - 10th round pick of the Yankees in the 2021 MLB draft out of the University of Maryland, Cowles was a pop-up prospect due to hitting an unexpected 18 home runs in his Junior year. While he was a shortstop in college, his MLB home looks to be second base as he’s spent the majority of his time there in his first two pro seasons.
Cowles spent the majority of 2022 in Single-A where he was able to put up some respectable numbers that resulted in a wRC+ of 148 with 7 home runs and 14 stolen bases. That included a plus wOBA and zone swing rate while everything else looked relatively good with the exception of a 27% strikeout rate. That strikeout rate will likely continue to be a concern as Cowles has shifted to a more power-oriented approach and swing. His 23 games in High-A after his promotion in early August did not go as well with zero long balls, zero steals, and an almost 34% strikeout rate.
Cowles isn’t in the prospect conversation and looks like a utility player at best that can play anywhere on the diamond. I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets time in the outfield as well in the future to increase his versatility. While the OBP skillset will keep him in the game, I don’t see the tools for a future everyday role on a first division squad. For now, he’s a Tier None guy with a watchlist designation to see if he can find a more balanced approach and get on prospect radars, and thus the hobby radar.
Collin Burns - SS (Orioles, 1st Auto only) - 6th round pick of the Orioles in the 2021 MLB draft out of Tulane that had a big Junior year to get on draft radar. Not as well known as the speedcuber Collin Burns though. What’s a speedcuber you ask? People that try to solve Rubik’s cube puzzles as fast as possible, and the speedcuber Collin Burns held the record at one point at 5.25 seconds. That’s some 80-grade hand dexterity, to say the least.
Back to the Orioles prospect Burns. At the moment he’s primarily playing shortstop but pre-draft there was speculation he may be a better fit at second base due to his arm. The glove and the range do play at shortstop though. He’s more hit over power with decent speed on the offensive side of the equation. Decent plate approach with plus zone contact rates. 90th percentile exit velocity is just average.
Mostly see a bench bat/utility player type. The RoboScout hitter comp that really fits well here is Phil Gosselin. That’s a successful real baseball player, but for the hobby, it’s a Tier None player, where I’ll have him ranked.
BJ Murray Jr. - 1B (Cubs, 1st Auto only) - The Bahamian was taken in the 15th round of the 2021 MLB Draft by Cubs out of Florida Atlantic University. While Murray spent most of his time at third base in college, the Cubs have shifted him to first base for the majority of his reps. This puts a much higher bar for Murray to overcome offensively.
He put up strong wRC+ numbers in both Single-A and High-A in 2022 driven by plus walk and strikeout rates. He shows patience at the plate and doesn’t chase much, although I did see a bit more ground balls than I’d like. He’s not much of a runner, but did chip in 8 steals in High-A. The missing piece to his game is power as he only clubbed 8 home runs in 2022.
Murray doesn’t have much prospect pedigree, wasn’t on many draft radars, and isn’t on current prospect radars. Outside of the power, there’s not a lot to complain about. However, the defensive position shift has led me to have quite a bit less interest as he’ll need to continue to really hit and find more power as he moves up the levels and I’m not sure that happens. A Tier None player until we can see easy double-digit power.
Braxton Fulford - C (Rockies, 1st Auto only) - 6th round pick of the Rockies in the 2021 MLB draft out of Texas Tech. Power over hit backup catcher type that provides plus skills behind the dish.
Had a solid first pass at Single-A in 2022 with a .268/.380/.448 slashline, 15 home runs, and 13 steals. Walk and strikeout rates also look to be above average to the good. However, that only amounted to a 117 wRC+ though as the California League does provide some hitter friendly environments.
If it wasn’t for Hunter “really” Goodman and Drew Romo already taking up the two top catching prospect slots in the Rockies system, Fulford might be talked about a bit more. I was really impressed with his defensive prowess and there’s enough of a positive offensive future that his floor is definitely an MLB backup catcher. It’s possible there’s a future starting catcher role here and then he’ll be in that Tier 3 rank, but for now, he’ll be with the rest of the backup catchers in Tier None.
Dru Baker - OF (Rays, 1st Base and Auto) - 4th round pick of the Rays in the 2021 MLB draft out of Texas Tech. Played all over the field in college, but has settled into the outfield in the pros. His average arm strength is essentially limiting him to center and left field which will put a lot of pressure on his bat to get him an everyday role.
He had a successful run through Single-A in the first month of the minor league season and then found a lot less success after his promotion to High-A. Each stint was under 30 games, so it’s hard to draw many conclusions with that small of a sample. Some conclusions we can draw and what I saw in the games I watched were a patient plate approach leading to a plus walk rate and a lot of ground balls. He had a 58% ground ball rate in Single-A and a 51% rate in High-A.
Baker looks like a gritty utility player type that is a collection of average tools with nothing standing out. It’s a Tier None player until we see something to be interested in hobby-wise.
Greg Cullen - 2B (Orioles, 1st Auto only) - Drafted in the 15th round of the 2018 MLB draft by the Braves and traded to the Orioles in 2020 with AJ Graffanino for Tommy Milone. He moved from Single-A to High-A to Double-A to Triple-A all in the first month and a half of the minor league season. Not sure I’ve seen that before.
He’s got a double plus OBP plate approach driven by not chasing and making good zone contact when he does swing. There’s not much else in the offensive profile as he has single-digit home run power at best and his 90th percentile exit velocity is just average.
A utility player profile or at most a second division regular given the on base skillset which is your standard Tier None profile.
Parker Chavers - OF (Cubs, 1st Auto only) - Drafted in the 7th round of the 2021 draft by the Cubs out of Coastal Carolina University. Would likely have been chosen in the 2020 draft if not for a shoulder injury and the pandemic shortened season and draft. Now he’s old for the levels he’s at, putting further pressure on his skillset, which is defense and speed.
Didn’t start playing games this year until mid-July, but can’t find any info on an injury, so there is some small sample deducing that has to be done. Primarily a left fielder but can also slide out to center field with no issue. While he only stole 6 bases in 40 games in 2022, the dude can move and regularly looks to take an extra base on any hit. Saw lots of gap power and he only put up 2 home runs in those 40 games. While his walk rates weren’t bad in college, they have not been good in the pros.
Given the small sample size, it’s another incomplete grade, but the ceiling is essentially a Tier 3 player with the most likely outcome being more of an org depth/5th outfielder type. That more likely outcome is why I am slotting him into Tier None.
Isaac De León - 3B (Orioles, 1st Auto only) - Signed by the Marlins in the 2018 International Free Agent period out of the Dominican Republic and then traded to the Orioles for Richard Bleier in 2020. In the RoboScout hitter comp tool, the strongest match is fellow 2022 Bowman Chrome player Herard Gonzalez (comping to Herard’s 2021 season), so I felt it was pretty easy to group them together.
Similar to Gonzalez, De León offers good OBP skills and a little bit of pop, but not much else. A few chip-in steals and a better defender that can play some shortstop but primarily picks it at third base.
There’s not much to be interested in here, and the high strikeout rates in the lower levels of the minors further cement his Tier None status.
Herard Gonzalez - 2B (Royals, 1st Auto only) - 2017 International Free Agent signing of the Royals out of the Dominican Republic. Spends most of his time at second base, although he did get about a third of his games at third base this year to increase his positional versatility.
There’s a little bit of pop from both sides of the plate and definite patience at the plate to take a walk as he regularly puts up double-digit walk rates. Above average speed as he's had back to back years of steals in the teens. Everything else in his profile is average or fringey.
Currently, Gonzalez is profiling as a utility or bench bat type without a carrying tool. The OBP foundation should be enough to get him an MLB opportunity at some point, but the ceiling isn’t there for any hobby interest.
Ian Lewis - SS (Marlins, 1st Auto only) - 2022 Bowman Baseball write-up: Part of the Marlins 2019 J2 class which included Eury Perez and Jose Salas (oh my!), the Bahamian shortstop was mainly viewed as a defense-first shortstop with a healthy dose of speed to help buoy the profile. In 2021 during his first full season stateside, he showed an unexpected hit tool with a .302 batting average and a very nice 15% strikeout rate. The walk rate was a bit low at just under 7% and he only hit 3 home runs in 43 games. It's all a small sample size and there is a lot of growth to come in Lewis' profile, so I could easily see him reach Tier 2 at some point soon. Add in the x-factor personality that he seems to have along with fellow Marlins prospect Kahlil Watson and fellow Marlins big leaguer Bahamian Jazz Chisholm and it might be easier to make that leap than I think. If Lewis ends up being someone you can grab at a cheap price point, there are a lot worse options in the product.
Update: Another average season for Lewis, this time in Single-A, with a wRC+ of 106 and just 2 home runs. He did have a plus zone swing rate and plus 90th exit velocity, but that was offset by his 55.9% groundball rate. He was able to get his walk rate up to an average level, but his strikeout rate rose to average levels as well. If he’s just that defense and speed guy with average tools elsewhere and no growth shown, it’s just enough negatives for me to drop him down into Tier None for the moment. Definitely someone to continue to watch to see if the development does kick in even if he’s in an org not known for developing hitters.
Estiven Machado - SS (Blue Jays, 1st Auto only) - 2022 Bowman Baseball write-up: 2019 J2 signee with next to no professional exposure due to COVID and a hamstring injury. Slick defender that can stick at shortstop with a smaller frame. Switch hitter that is more contact over power. Almost no video to speak of and a slow start to 2022, so another player thrown into Tier None pending future looks to see if there are any standout offensive tools that will push him up to Tier 3.
Update: Machado performed at a league average level for his first pass through Single-A. Outside of plus zone contact rates, nothing else stood out. Only hit 1 home run and strikeout rate was a bit high at 25.5%. Ground ball rate was not good at 52.8%. With some approach changes, perhaps he can get out of Tier None. Given these results, I’m keeping him in Tier None for now.
Luis Chevalier - 2B (Mariners, 1st Auto only) - 2018 International Free Agent signing of the Mariners that was traded to the Reds at the beginning of June to complete an April trade for reliever Riley O’Brien. If you’re asking, “Who’s Riley O’Brien?” then you’re not alone. And that may be all you need to know about Chevalier’s value when he’s being traded for a no-name reliever.
He’s basically a collection of fringe tools with good walk rates. Strikes out too much, doesn’t have much pop, is on the smaller side so likely won’t grow into more power, doesn’t steal bases, etc. A non-prospect at this point, and thus a Tier None ranking.
Jheremy Vargas - SS (Brewers, 1st Auto only) - 2022 Bowman Baseball write-up: 2019 J2 signing for $650K out of Venezuela who should be able to stick anywhere in the infield he is needed while showing an above average hit tool. His swing is level through the zone and couple that with being a bit on the smaller side and there isn't much power to speak of. Likely falls in the utility/bench bat or second division regular type and he doesn't hold much attraction for the hobby.
Update: Not much has changed. Vargas is still an above average hit tool and defensive versatility player who projects as a utility player. His first pass at Single-A this year ended with a 75 wRC+ which is nothing to write home about and will keep him firmly in Tier None.
Victor Labrada - OF (Mariners, 1st Auto only) - 2022 Bowman Baseball write-up: Signed in 2019 after defecting from Cuba, Labrada is mostly looking to put the ball in play and then use his speed to get on base. Gap power and not likely to grow into much more given his smaller stature. Looks to run on the basepaths without much of a plan leading to a lot of stolen bases and a lot of caught stealing situations. Can make spectacular defensive plays in center field. Was highly successful in his initial 50-game sample in Low-A in 2021 before getting the promotion to High-A at mid-season. Struggled at High-A in 2021 as well as to kick off the season in 2022. Most likely fits into a fourth outfielder role or potentially an every day table setting top of the lineup speedster at best. Tier None profile for now with Tier 3 upside if he can find his Single-A form and cut down on getting thrown out on the basepaths.
Update: Not a ton has changed outside of hitting a few more home runs to get to a total of 12 on the season. Decent walk rates and subpar strikeout rates with a league average-ish wRC+ (99). The biggest concern is that his 90th percentile exit velocity number was below average and that is just not going to get you out of Tier None.
Diego Velasquez - SS/2B (Giants, 1st Auto only) - 2022 Bowman Baseball write-up: Giants top signing in the 2021 J15 class for $900K. Currently a defense first shortstop with speed. Not much to write home about with the hit tool and almost no power to speak of. Everything I saw was lightly hit balls around the infield. As he matures and adds strength, the hope is that the offense grows along with it. Until then, he's a Tier None player, but one worth watching as the Giants’ strong recent Latin American signing track record deserves the benefit of the doubt.
Update: No change to the profile - still hitting the ball with zero authority even if his zone swing and zone contact rates look to be plus. Remains a Tier None player.
Austin Schultz - OF (Tigers, 1st Auto only) - Taken in the 10th round of the 2021 MLB draft out of the University of Kentucky as a second baseman, the second baseman has been transitioned to the outfield by Detroit. In his first taste of pro ball after the draft, he started with a small dose of Complex ball, went to Single-A, and finished up with another brief taste of High-A. The Tigers started him in High-A in 2022 but after seven games where he only picked up one hit, he was sent back down to Single-A for the remainder of 2022. It’s not something you really want to see from a decent SEC performer that he can’t hang at High-A.
Combining his small sample High-A stats with his 55 games sample from Single-A in 2022 Schultz ends up with a triple slash of .201/.325/.282, two home runs, and 11 stolen bases. The strikeout rate comes in at over 30% and a sub 100 wRC+. His groundball rate at Single-A was close to 55%. In case you weren’t sure, outside of the stolen bases and perhaps the OBP, those numbers are all really bad.
Schultz came into the draft as a hit tool floor guy that should have some decent upside at a position where you don’t need to have a huge offensive ceiling. He’s now been moved into a defensive scenario in the outfield where there is more pressure on the bat and we haven’t seen anything other than a collection of average tools without much ceiling. At this point he’s trending towards a bench bat fifth outfielder type - until we see the hit tool or something else take a significant step forward, he’s Tier None.
Junior Sanchez - SS (Marlins, 1st Auto only) - 2022 Bowman Baseball write-up: 2019 J2 signee of the Marlins for $1.5 Million has yet to log game time in affiliated ball since being signed. In the summer of 2021, he was moved to the 60-day IL and I still haven't seen a reason why. At the time of his signing, he was seen as more advanced on the offensive side of the ball with a good plate approach and line drive power from the left hand side. But given the lack of information or video since 2019, it's an easy choice to throw him in Tier None until we get something, anything to sink our teeth into.
Update: Sanchez had a small sample of 24 games at the Complex, and it did not go that well. While his zone contact rate was elite, it came with a big yikes 67.3% ground ball rate and zero home runs. Small sample size for sure, but nothing positive to move him out of Tier None at this point.
Victor Mesia - C (Blue Jays, 1st Auto only) - Signed for $300,000 out of Venezuela in the 2019 International free agency signing period, Mesia is a big bodied catcher that was thought of as a bat-first profile when he signed. What we’ve seen so far hasn’t lived up to that billing.
Outside of 21 games in Complex ball in 2021, he hasn’t hit above .240. In Single-A in 2022, his triple slash was .152/.221/.196 with just one home run. He had close to 50 GB% at the level as well. Even with an above average 90th percentile exit velo and zone swing rate, it is negated by that ground ball rate. Putting the bat to the ball and hitting it hard doesn’t work too well when you’ve got that big-boned Eric Cartman thing going on. That profile works a lot better when you can put pressure on the defense with plus speed.
Defensively he’s got the arm to stick at catcher but reportedly still needs to work on the rest of the craft at the position. At the moment he doesn’t have the bat to make it work anywhere else, so that’s his best path forward. Even so, it’s a backup catcher profile until further notice is given the offensive struggles which has him in Tier None.
Andy Thomas - C (Mariners*, 1st Auto only) - 5th round selection of the Mariners in the 2021 MLB draft as a 5th-year Senior out of Baylor University. Traded to the Giants along with minor league reliever Michael Stryffeler for Curt Casali and Matthew Boyd at the most recent trade deadline. Thomas is one of the many classic backup catcher profiles.
Thomas provides a little bit of pop with a good plate approach that results in a strong OBP and average skills behind the plate. Farhan loves him some OBP so I’m not surprised he added Thomas to the cadre of catchers in the Giants’ system, but really nothing of interest for the hobby. And Farhan would know about the hobby, as he once wrote an academic paper while in school at the University of California-Berkely about choices and risk using a Tom Brady rookie card as the use case. Back to Thomas, unless there is some tick up on the hit ability and defensive skill set, no reason to think he’s anything other than the backup catcher Tier None player.
Adrian Sugastey - C (Giants, 1st Auto only) - 2022 Bowman Baseball write-up: Signed for mid-six figures out of Panama in the Giants 2019 J2 class. Hit over power profile currently. Arm behind the plate is his best asset at the moment as he learns the position, but the feeling is that he should be able to stick there. Had a successful first go at the Complex in 2021, but has struggled so far in his first taste at Single-A in 2022. Has the look of a backup catcher with a chance at more, especially if he changes his plate approach to be more power-orientated or simply hits the ball with more authority.
Update: Not much has changed on the offensive side of the ball - still needs to have better quality of contact and not chase as much. On the defensive side, he is showing progress to the point where that chance at being a starting catcher is more of a possibility. He needs to continue the trend of positive defensive growth and begin a trend of positive offensive growth. Still a Tier None player for now.
CJ Rodriguez - C (Athletics, 1st Auto only) - Drafted in the 5th round of the 2021 MLB draft by the Athletics out of Vanderbilt University. Rodriguez’s calling card is his strong skills behind the dish and a patient plate approach as he attempts to work counts and get on base.
Had a plus 14.9% walk rate and sub 20% strikeout rate in 2022 at Single-A. Had a couple of home runs and hit .266/.380/.349, which isn’t really anything to write home about. Essentially it amounted to a league average 99 wRC+.
If you like the old school catcher body type that doesn’t hit much but does everything well at the position, then Rodriguez is your guy. For the hobby, he’s a Tier None backup catcher.
Daniel McElveny - C (Red Sox, 1st Auto only) - Drafted in the 6th round of the 2021 MLB draft by the Red Sox out of the Southern California prep ranks. McElveny was primarily a shortstop in high school, but the Red Sox have used him exclusively at catcher on defense in 2022.
From an offensive standpoint, he’s not shown much outside of a good walk rate. In reality, this is more driven by a passive approach where he’s not swinging at much at all. With the lack of pitch command in the lower levels, keeping the bat on your shoulder will in fact lead to strong walk rates. He was seen as more of a hit over power player in high school and that is bearing out as he has yet to hit a professional home run in just over 50 games.
McElveny has a long way to go before he becomes relevant. Being a professional catcher is not an easy job and learning all of the nuances of the position could easily take years. From what I watched, he was “catching” the ball well, but not really a “catcher”. I didn’t see anything in the way of framing or fundamentally sound blocking. It’s going to be a tough ask for McElveny to be anything more than a Tier None backup catcher.
Jose Rodriguez - C (Rangers, 1st Auto only) - 2022 Bowman Baseball write-up: Got a $2 million signing bonus in the 2018 J2 cycle out of Venezuela. Since the signing, has done very little to justify it and at the moment looks like backup catcher org depth type. Tier None slotting until we something of interest.
Update: Nothing changed - Rodriguez had a full season in Single-A and ended with a wRC+ of 63. Still trending toward a backup catcher/third catcher org depth type player.
Jack Herman - OF (Pirates, 1st Auto only) - 30th round 2018 MLB Draft pick of the Pirates out of the New Jersey prep ranks. Had his 2022 season cut short in mid-June by a significant ankle injury.
Wasn’t really seen as having anything more than average tools, but his power in 2019 and 2021 did lead to 13 and 15 home runs. Unfortunately, all of the other metrics don’t support much of interest as he regularly has subpar walk and strikeout rates. He’s not going to steal any bases either.
Without significant development, it looks like Herman is more org depth than anything at this point and an easy Tier None ranking decision.
Sebastian Espino - OF (Blue Jays, 1st Auto only) - 2016 International Free Agent signing of the Mets out of the Dominican Republic for $600K. Chosen by the Blue Jays in the 2020 Minor League Rule V draft. Showed some decent potential in 2021 at High-A leading to a full season go at Double-A in 2022 which, to say it kindly, did not go well.
The main positive was that he did hit 14 home runs, which was living up to the anticipated profile that Espino would grow into a power bat. The rest of the takeaways were pretty much all negative. Had a sub 6% walk rate and an egregious 44% strikeout rate. He had a triple slash of .181/.234/.364. He had a plus zone swing rate and a bottom of the barrel zone contact rate - not exactly a recipe for success.
Not sure why Topps is listing Espino as a second baseman since the last time he primarily played that position was 2018 and hasn’t played it all since he came to Toronto. He looks to be primarily a right fielder now and has the arm to stick there. He is a power bat that takes daddy hacks on the regular without regard for much else. Absent an approach change, I don’t see more than a Quad A slugger in the profile, which is a Tier None player.
Roilan Machandy - OF (Astros, 1st Auto only) - 2019 International Free Agent signing of the Astros out of Cuba for $250K.
Spent most of 2022 at the Complex although he did get one game at Single-A at the end of the season - a true cup of coffee as they say. It was his second year of Complex ball, and it did not improve over year 1, even with an almost 30 point jump in BABIP. Speed is his only plus tool and he stole 23 bases in 2022 while nabbing 30 in 2021. His walk rate regressed to sub 10% while his strikeout rate increased over 4% and well into the danger zone of over 30% (33.1% to be exact). On the power spectrum, he hit only 1 in 2022, following up the paltry 3 he hit last year.
At this point Machandy is trending towards a pinch runner/late inning replacement 5th outfielder/org depth type player.
Tanner McDougal - RHP (White Sox, 1st Auto only) - 5th round pick in the 2021 MLB draft of the White Sox out of the Nevada prep ranks. Tall and skinny with plenty of room to add muscle and the son of a former minor leaguer. Had Tommy John in October of 2021 and did not pitch in 2022.
Three pitch arsenal with a mid-90’s fastball, high-70’s curveball, and mid-80’s changeup. Lot’s of positive metrics on all three pitches and definitely a potential rotation piece if command can bring everything together. If not, he’s still likely to find a role in the bullpen given the arsenal.
Since he’s been on the shelf all year, he’s getting an incomplete grade and ending up in Tier None. Going to have to see how he looks once he’s got his feet back under him, but this one is likely a slow burn.
Antonio Pinero - SS (Brewers*, 1st Auto only) - Pinero was one of five prospects who had their International Free Agency contracts voided by the MLB back in 2016 after the Red Sox got a slap on the wrist for doing package deals with IFA players. He was then signed by the Brewers and hasn’t been able to make it past High-A since his 2016 debut. With his MiLB service time booked, he elected free agency earlier this month and we’ll see if he hooks on anywhere else.
There is one thing Pinero does really well on the diamond, and it’s play defense. While perhaps not the strongest arm, every other part of the defensive tool set is plus or better. Soft hands, good feet, range, highlight reel plays - you name it, he can do it. Find the video on Twitter (if Elon hasn’t killed it by the time you’re reading this) of Pinero doing drills with throwing baseballs against a wall - it’s impressive. On the offensive side, everything is below average. Almost no power, doesn’t hit for average, poor walk rates, and this year, his strikeout rates went from a regular sub-20% rate to close to 28%.
At best, Pinero figures it out with the stick and becomes a poor man’s Nick Ahmed. The more likely outcome is that his dream of making an MLB roster is starting to fade. An easy Tier None decision.
Thomas Farr - RHP (Reds, 1st Auto only) - 5th round pick in the 2021 MLB draft of the Reds out of the University of South Carolina. Farr profiles as a backend starter or bullpen arm depending heavily on consistency with his command.
Has a three pitch arsenal with a low 90’s fastball, above average low 80’s slider, and average low 80’s changeup. The slider and changeup can flash effectively when his command is on. Evidence of his lack of command was a WHIP of 1.49 in 2021.
I wasn’t really overly impressed in the video looks I had of Farr. As long as he’s in the Reds org with a future homepark of Great American Smallpark, there’s not a ton of hope for a successful starting career given the profile. The Reds need starting pitching, so they likely continue him down this path until he absolutely shows he can’t do it, but the trend is already headed towards a future bullpen role. It will take some obvious changes before he can get out of Tier None where I have him.
Evan Lee - LHP (Nationals, 1st Auto only) - Lefty reliever that made his MLB debut this year. Was outrighted off of the 40-man roster last week which does not inspire much confidence in his future role. Has a low 90’s fastball that plays up due to spin and release point. His main secondary is a plus curveball with high spin as well. He’ll throw an occasional changeup but it’s nothing more than a show-me pitch. Given how much the Nats are lacking in the starting pitching department, I could see Lee getting some future run in that role as he’s been a full time starter the last two years in the minors. Even so, he’s got some obstacles to overcome to get back on the 40-man roster to be able to start or relieve with the big league club. A lefty reliever or backend starter that’s already been on and off the 40-man adds up to a Tier None pitcher.
Gavin Tonkel - OF (Phillies, 1st Auto only) - An off the radar choice by the Phillies in the 2021 MLB Draft in the 9th round as a prep outfielder out of Northern California. He had a small sample of 11 games of Complex ball at the end of 2021 and then has gone into the witness protection program. Seriously, I can’t find any information or news on what he’s been doing in 2022 and he did not register an at bat this year. The profile is elite speed and outfield defense with a long lean frame that scouts are projecting could get to above average raw power. Without any video or 2022 at bats to go off of, Tonkel basically is getting an “incomplete” grade and defaulting into Tier None until we see something, anything.
Charlie Welch - C (Mariners, 1st Auto only) - Charlton (you assumed his real first name was Charles, didn’t you?) was a 19th round pick of the Mariners in 2021 out of the University of Arkansas as a backup catcher. And this may shock you, but his MLB profile is very much along the lines of a backup catcher!
His plate approach has trended towards three true outcomes as he looks to hit pull-side jacks by spitting on anything that won’t lead to him doing that. He spent almost all of 2022 in High-A outside of a few Complex rehab games after a July stint on the IL. His High-A statline included a .211/.367/.440 triple slash, nine home runs, a 19.5% walk rate (!), and a 31.9% strikeout rate (oof).
Welch could end up hitting 25 - 30 home runs with a full time job in the minors and get some momentary interest from collectors, but the reality is that his approach will be taken advantage of by advanced pitching. Without a change, he’s going to continue to follow that backup catcher path, which is a Tier None profile all day long.
NOT QUITE THE MAIN ATTRACTION
There are 14 base rookie autos in the product that will drive some interest, especially since the big 5 rookie chases are all on the auto checklist. That’s Julio Rodriguez, Bobby Witt Jr., Wander Franco, Oneil Cruz, and Spencer Torkelson. However, you should be aware that these are very hard to hit and fall about one in every five hobby cases. There are also a few vet autos that can be found in insert sets which are likelier even harder to hit.
FINAL THOUGHTS
The prospect auto checklist, 1st Bowmans and non-1st Bowmans, continue to grow each year. This gives me some concerns as it can water down the product from delivering value to the hobby masses. The more you open, the better shot you have at the big cards, as is the norm, but those odds just keep getting longer and longer. So while I’ve find plenty of intriguing prospects to chase, it’s by no means an ideal situation. At the moment, I like it, but don’t love it. We’ll see how my opinion changes, if at all, once we start seeing boxes upon boxes of it opened.