With the 2022 MiLB season coming to a close it’s time once again to reflect on what I saw this year. The biggest difference between my list from last year to this year is the inclusion of live looks. For much of the season, I like to put my focus beyond the game’s top prospects to find potential diamonds in the rough. That was the essence of this list last year.
Before jumping into this year’s list, I spent time reflecting on last year’s list. Some of the more successful picks from last year include Deyvison De Los Santos, Robert Gasser, Coby Mayo, Prelander Berroa, Beau Brieske, and Joey Wiemer. There were plenty of misses as well, but overall I can say I’m happy with how the group from last year played out.
The ground rules for selection are fairly simple. These are players who I’ve watched enough of to have a feel. If I just see highlights of a player then they do not qualify. For the most part, I wanted to avoid an organization’s top prospects, too. There are just a few players who are not necessarily under the radar, but I do believe they are much better than the perceived public view of the player. At the end of the day, this is an exercise for sharing players who caught my eye during the season. I got really pitcher heavy this year and that’s reflected here. So, let’s dive in!
Twice Is Nice
These players were on last year’s list, but still are deserving. This is bound to happen, if I liked a player last year then I’m still going to be in on them this year. That’s true for a lot of those guys from the 2021 season list, but I selected only a few to carry over.
Connor Norby, 2B, BAL
Right off the bat, I’ll admit I’m presenting a player who isn’t exactly under the radar. But he deserves much more recognition. It wasn’t until the tail end of the season that Norby started to get more and more hype. I’ve been on the record waiting for him to get more attention publicly. It started because of my affinity for ECU bats, but it continues because he is, simply put, really good at hitting. His nearly 30 home runs across three levels this season is much more than I anticipated. The power is such a nice compliment. I’ve always liked his hit tool and approach. His feel for barrel is what really took a step forward this year. It’s a simple setup with a quick compact swing that will carry Norby to a potential above average regular role in the big leagues.
Dax Fulton, LHP, MIA
This big southpaw was having a pedestrian season. A solid start here and there, but overall was just competing each time out in High-A posting a 4.07 ERA with 120 strikeouts in 97.1 innings. Then he was promoted to Double-A where he posted a 2.57 ERA with 30 strikeouts in 20 innings, and that doesn’t include his postseason appearances. He can hit mid-90s with his fastball and has a big breaking curveball. This year I even got a better look at his changeup, which flashed well. His performance in Double-A catapulted him back onto this list, but I still think his upside may be limited to a backend starter role.
Daniel Palencia, RHP, CHC
It’s hard not to like pitchers who can regularly touch triple digits. Last year he was on this list because of the big velocity and chance to make an impact in the bullpen. That really hasn’t changed, but there were big strides made between last year and this year that make me believe his ceiling has raised from low leverage to potentially high leverage. The 100+ MPH fastballs remain, but what really jumps out is more consistency with his offspeed. His slider breaks on two planes and his changeup has very nice armside fade to it. What struck me about those offerings was the usage. There were a few outings where he would pitch backwards by getting ahead with the offspeed and coming back with the 70-grade fastball. There are still command questions in a big way, but the stuff is extremely fun.
Are They Really Under The Radar?
Denzel Clarke, OF, OAK
It seems unfair to put a player who was in the Futures Game onto this list, but I assure you this is calculated. Denzel Clarke is a top 100 prospect for me, and I’m likely the only person to believe that. That’s cool with me. He’s a 70-grade defender in centerfield with great reactions and routes, with plenty of speed to cover a lot of ground. His speed is plus, if not double plus itself and it plays on both sides of the ball. Clarke’s power upside is enormous. The biggest question is with his hit tool and people understandably cite his strikeout rate when telling me my take is crazy. Having seen him live for more than a fair share of games, he consistently recognized offspeed, but couldn’t wait back. Seeing more of those high-end secondaries will hopefully help him to stay off his front foot. There is admittedly a ton of risk involved here, but the pure upside is as high as anyone I’ve seen.
Colson Montgomery, SS, CWS
A former first rounder on an under-the-radar list? Am I an idiot? Probably. Here’s the thing, this guy can play baseball. Montgomery will constantly be overshadowed by other shortstops in his draft class like Marcelo Mayer and Jordan Lawlar, among others. Montgomery’s swing is smooth and can produce some impact to all fields. In High-A his strikeout rate was 15.9 percent and here’s the kicker: his walk rate was 15.9 percent. After showing out, he was promoted to Double-A for the last couple of weeks and struggled mightily. That doesn’t phase me even a little. Colson Montgomery is on this list for the sole purpose of me telling you to not sleep on this guy. With his hitting abilities and athleticism, this is a potential above average, if not impact, contributor.
Brandon Pfaadt, RHP, ARI
Is a guy who pitched in the upper levels of the minors and led the minors in strikeouts really under the radar? Honestly, I don’t know. I just don’t think he’s getting talked about enough so here he is. To put it in perspective, Pfaadt threw 167 innings across Double and Triple-A while striking out 218 batters. This was an awesome season. This is a potential middle of the rotation arm when all is said and done. Pfaadt’s fastball sits in the low-90s but can get up to the mid-90s. His slider is a real weapon, and he has feel for a changeup. It took roughly two starts for me to get ready to hype up Pfaadt a lot, which is interesting because prior to this year I didn’t know who he was. Quite the meteoric rise in 2022.
Picks To Click in 2023
Izaac Pacheco, 3B, DET
Listen to me very carefully when I say this: Izaac Pacheco is a dude. He might be a big dude. The fact remains that this guy can play. He may not be a third baseman long term, but in my limited live looks he played well there. The real standout was his bat. When you’re out at the field the cream rises to the top and it’s easy to tell who they are. They will make themselves known immediately. At the plate a 19-year-old Pacheco made himself known against older competition. He can hit with power to all fields and his approach at the plate is extremely advanced, especially considering his age. His hands play well enough to stay back on offspeed, too. I’m fully convinced that Pacheco is primed to explode very soon.
Jorbit Vivas, 2B/3B, LAD
If there is one thing that will make me instantly develop a prospect crush on a hitter, it’s good hands at the plate. If you want to verify, go find anything I’ve written about Riley Greene. Vivas might honestly belong in the group of more well known guys who aren’t under the radar, but I’m still higher than consensus on him. His hands at the plate are great. They are quick and he shows very good hand-eye coordination. He can hit the ball. I project his hit tool into the 55/60 area. Even then, his power is 40-grade, at best. If a pitcher makes a mistake up in the zone, he can sometimes drive it over the fence, but it’s mostly gap power. Defensively, his reactions are great and he moves well laterally. I got a chance to see him at both second and third base. It’s more natural at second base, but he could be a solid option at third, too. His arm is plenty strong, but the accuracy is a bit inconsistent at the hot corner. In any other organization, I would tell you he’s a future big league regular, but on the Dodgers, I think he’ll get suppressed to a utility role.
Damiano Palmegiani, 3B, TOR
Who? Good question. Palmegiani was the Blue Jays 14th rounder in 2021. Statistically, his 2022 season was good from a power standpoint. He smashed 24 homeruns across two levels. The highest level he reached was High-A and that’s where his average dropped. His strikeout percentage was in the low 20s at both levels with walk rates around 10 percent. His swing is what really makes me a believer. His power comes from an incredibly quick, compact swing that has plenty of loft to it. He shows promise with his hit tool because of his plate skills. That will be very important in his development. Palmegiani has a power over hit profile, but I think he’s primed to take a jump forward in 2023.
Colt Keith, 3B, DET
Injury halted the breakout campaign for Keith. Whether he’s under the radar or not might be up to your interpretation of the phrase, but I want to be on record as being all in on this guy. He was slashing .301/.370/.544 in his 193 at bats prior to getting hurt. That included some power, but mostly he just hits the ball really well. He was highlighted recently by Baseball America’s Geoff Pontes for his ability to make good contact. That reigns true when you watch him play. There’s a non-zero chance I would rank him as the Tigers’ top prospect right now, he’s safely in the top three. When he was drafted he was a two-way player with questions about if he would hit or pitch. I think the Tigers made the right call here.
High Ceiling, High Risk Arms
Reese Olson, RHP, DET
Reese Olson might just be my favorite arm to watch in the minors. There’s probably some Tiger fan bias, but he’s an extremely talented arm with a high ceiling and lots of risk. He kind of got buried because his Erie teammate Wilmer Flores was rightfully stealing the spotlight. Olson’s season included a ton of strikeouts, improved command, an immaculate inning, and plenty of inconsistency. He has four pitches that can play at the big league level, and he uses them all well. The stuff is good, but it’s the feel to pitch that really strikes me. He sets guys up, moves the ball around the zone, and changes speeds really well. His fastball sits in the mid-90s with a slider, curveball, and changeup to compliment it. This is a potential mid-rotation arm, for me, with a ceiling of a being a 2. I love the upside with Olson.
Joe Boyle, RHP, CIN
Much like Olson, Boyle comes with a lot of reliever risk. His K/9 was in the double digits and even at 14.7 during his 74.2 innings in High-A. The problem is that his BB/9 was in the seven to eight range. That’s very bad. His command is very poor, but his stuff is very good. His fastball was up to 99 MPH, and tight upper-80s slider, and a curveball in the low-80s. All of which are solid offerings. The pitch mix could make him a rotation arm, but the command might ultimately cap him as a bullpen future. It’s super high risk and super high reward.
Emmet Sheehan, RHP, LAD
I saw Sheehan live multiple times this season, and let me tell you that this guy is for real. His fastball is a data goldmine thanks to its vertical approach angle (VAA), among other things. It plays well to the top of the zone and his secondaries play well, too. I had his fastball touching 99 MPH on my radar gun and he showed three secondaries that got swings and misses. His changeup was a great pitch, his slider played well against righties, and his curveball was a solid fourth pitch. His command is good, too. However, at times he tries to get too cute around the zone and finds himself in bad counts. Sheehan has less risk than the other two arms in this section, but likely less ceiling. He’s a fun arm and he needs more hype. The Dodgers keep doing this.
Welcome Back From Injury
Mason Denaburg, RHP, WAS
It was a long road for Denaburg to get back on a mound. He was a first rounder in 2018, threw 20 innings in 2019, then didn’t throw a competitive pitch until this season. In his return to action a 23-year-old Denaburg started 13 games, throwing 39 innings. His numbers are every bit of someone who hasn’t faced professional hitters in three years. The raw stuff still looks like someone who was drafted in the first round. While his outings weren’t long, there should be more to his season next season. He was touching 97 MPH on the stadium gun with some nasty breaking stuff. Next year will be a big year in his development.
Carter Baumler, RHP, BAL
The Orioles fifth rounder from 2020 was held off from his professional debut thanks to Tommy John surgery. He came back this year and showed why he was a selection in that shortened draft. Unfortunately, he made only four starts before being put back on the IL with shoulder inflammation. So, that’s not great news. Hopefully, he can come back healthy next year. The stuff is a lot of fun. Baumler’s fastball was in the low-90s per the stadium gun and he had a very nice curveball. I never got a good look at his changeup, but he did throw one. Health is obviously a huge question, but he’s an intriguing arm.
Joey Cantillo, LHP, CLE
Cantillo’s 2021 season came to an end after just 13 innings. He came back from injury this year to the tune of a 1.93 ERA with 87 strikeouts in 60.2 innings. It was purely dominant and there’s a reason for that. Cantillo’s curveball is the crown jewel of his arsenal and his changeup is a good pitch, too. Prior to his injury, he was coasting with a high-80s fastball, but now everything has ticked up from a velocity standpoint. With that improved velocity comes a huge bump in his ceiling. The pitch mix is great and it’s an awfully interesting profile. This was an impressive return from injury.
JJ Goss, RHP, TB
Prior to this season the 36th overall pick in 2019 had all of 27.1 innings of professional pitching under his belt. He threw just 10 innings in 2021 because of shoulder issues. Finally healthy in 2022, he threw 101.1 innings in Single-A with a 4.00 ERA, 101 strikeouts, and 21 walks. As the numbers show, Goss throws a lot of strikes and doesn’t walk batters very often. He has a very quick arm. It’s both smooth and whippy where it comes through quickly, but it’s flexible enough to have plenty of layback. He throws a low-90s fastball with a slider as his main secondary. Those two sequence off each other very well. His third pitch is a changeup that flashes, but still could use more consistency. Considering this was really his first full year of work as a pro, there was a ton to like. His mid-rotation ceiling from when he was drafted is still in place, for me.
Plus Changeups
Alejandro Hidalgo, RHP, LAA
This is another pitcher whose season was cut short due to injury. Before that, he was an 18 and 19-year-old performing well in Low-A. He threw 39 innings with a 13.3 K/9, which was largely due to a really good changeup. It’s a plus pitch with great deception. It has great armside fade. He will double up on it, triple up on it, and use it in any situation. Hidalgo showed consistent feel for the pitch with command. His other pitches are a low-90s fastball and a curveball that flashes average. He leads the way with his changeup. There’s still room to add to the frame, so low-90s can tick up. Health is the biggest issue here.
Luis Devers, RHP, CHC
This is one of those changeups that people might eventually debate if it’s a screwball or not. It has that much movement. If Hidalgo has a plus changeup, Devers has a 70-grade changeup. There’s also a fastball that gets up to the mid-90s with a tight breaking curveball. The changeup is the main offering, though. He uses it early, and he uses it often. Devers will not stop using it, nor should he. Outside of the pure stuff, he messes up timing during his delivery, too. His command was excellent this year, but the whiffs went down once he got out of Low-A. So while there’s a lot of potential here, there’s still room to grow. He might eventually be a leverage reliever relying on his big changeup. Relying on a changeup as much as he does can be a tough road as the hitters get better. I mentioned the whiffs dropping after being promoted, that can be why. The only pitcher that comes to mind immediately that used a changeup as a primary pitch is Jovani Moran from the Twins. He also has a mid-90s fastball so the stuff comps pretty well, though Moran is a lefty and Devers is a righty. Success can happen, Moran gets tons of whiffs with his changeup. There just might be a learning curve for Devers as the hitters get more advanced.
Remaining Bats
Justin Dirden, OF, HOU
Never scout the stat line, but the stat line scouting did help me find Dirden. I was in charge of Double-A for The Daily Sheet and that meant for much of this season I watched Dirden consistently perform day in and day out. Between Double and Triple-A he hit .302 with 24 homeruns. Not bad for an undrafted free agent. Granted, he was a UDFA from the shortened 2020 draft, but still was not drafted. He can spray the ball with power to all fields. His swing is quick and simple, and should play in the majors. He’s a good player and he showed that this season.
Cooper Bowman, 2B, OAK
If not for my live looks, Bowman might not be here. However, I got to see him from his first game post trade through the following couple weeks. While I’m not as confident about his future as some of the other names on this list, I do see a skillset that is intriguing. There are some highlights of power that included a 105 MPH homerun, but for the most part, he was adept at spraying the ball and hitting line drives. Quick hands at the plate allow him to get to pitches around the zone. Defensively he’s a true second baseman, but he plays well there. Our own Tieran Alexander wrote about Bowman and what changes he needs to make to unlock some serious skill.
Josh Crouch, C, DET
A catcher named Crouch is still something I love. Turns out, he can play baseball pretty well, too. Crouch is another guy that I got to see live a bunch and the takeaway is that the guy can hit the baseball. He has a little pop, but he makes good contact with a good approach at the plate. While he doesn’t have prodigious power, he can drive the ball the other way with some authority and drive it over the fence. His defense is pretty rough and a little awkward, though he’s still relatively new to the position. Right now it’s a clear bat over glove profile and the bat is super interesting.
Yonathan Perlaza, OF, CHC
Another example of The Daily Sheet leading to a player I watched and enjoyed. Perlaza is an interesting case. Early in his career he had next to no power. From 2016-2019 he never hit more than three home runs. Then he started growing into some power and smacked 15 homeruns in 2021 and 23 this year. He’s taken a big jump in that area while not losing the speed he had early in his career, swiping 15 bags. For Perlaza specifically, it was a ridiculous hot streak in August that caught my eye, then I went and watched him play. He’s a switch-hitting outfielder with a quick and smooth swing from both sides of the plate. The biggest concern is more consistency at the plate, but for only 23 years old the improvements all around his game so far are very impressive.
Mike Antico, OF, STL
This is a really difficult player to sell anyone on why I like him so much. When I wrote him up in a live looks piece I described his skillset as a discount Harrison Bader because he is great defensively in centerfield and has a decent bat with a just little bit of pop. Kyle Reis, who is an excellent follow for Cardinals minor leaguers, brought up a comp to me of Scott Hurst which is a really good fit, I think. Antico made it up to Double-A and his average wasn’t much to look at, a combined .245 between the two levels he played at, but he knocked 15 homeruns and stole 67 bases. His bat is the big question, but his defensive prowess is legitimate. It sounds like a player that the Cardinal development magic would work beautifully on.
Hendry Mendez, OF, MIL
I pumped Mendez up preseason, then he didn’t have a great season, so now I want to do my part to keep the hype up. I’m still very much in on this guy. At the start of the season, Mendez was the youngest player in the Carolina League. And while the numbers weren’t great, he was 18 for the whole season. Whenever I watched him he showed a very mature approach at the plate and he didn’t look overmatched very often. Plus, the swing is very nice. I expect big things coming from Mendez.
Carter Jensen, C, KC
If you like catchers with silky smooth swings and exceptional plate skills then you will probably be a fan of Carter Jensen. The Royals 2021 3rd rounder slashed .226/.363/.382 in Single-A this year with a 17.1 percent walk rate. And, he’s just 19 years old. In fact, he was even named the organization’s Player of the Year for Columbia. Jensen has a very smooth, lofty swing that can produce loud contact. When I watched him I thought he had a very heavy tendency to sell out to his pull side, but that’s his strength as of right now. That kind of swing from the catcher position could be very fun. Defensively he looks like a young catcher. It’s hard to tell much from just watching on streams, so take this with a grain of salt, but to me, he just looks like an unpolished defender. He’s athletic enough to be a long term catcher, and I think he is one, but right now that part of his game is very raw.
Remaining Arms
Richard Gallardo, RHP, CHC
Of everyone on this list, Gallardo is the one I most wrestled with including. He has a mid-90s fastball complemented by a curveball that he throws quite a bit. He rounds out his arsenal with what appears to be a sinker or two-seam, and a slider. The pitch mix works well enough, and Gallardo even saw an appearance in Double-A before this year was over. I think his stuff will play, but that’s not why I was questioning involving him. Frankly, I just hadn’t seen much of him compared to the others on this list. Usually, I wouldn’t mention that, but it leads to the real reason I wanted to include him. This is the guy has that dog in him. The camera kept showing it in his 13 strikeout game, and I bought in. He has a bulldog, I’m better than you-type mentality and those guys just bring a little extra to the table.
Stiven Cruz, RHP, MIL
I saw one highlight from Cruz last year in the DSL and I was in. Now that he’s stateside and playing in full-season ball, that hasn’t changed. He will turn 21 this offseason and finished this season throwing 19 innings in High-A with 20 strikeouts and a 0.47 ERA. That doesn’t erase his Single-A ERA of 4.60 through 91.1 innings, but he was getting whiffs while surrounding runs at that lower level to the tune of 109 strikeouts. The young righty has a nice 6’2” pitcher’s frame and is very skinny. There’s room to project on a low-90s fastball. He also throws a very nice curveball. His projection and the proven success of the Brewers pitching lab have me very excited about this arm.
Emiliano Teodo, RHP, TEX
Every year I like to include at least one prospect who I believe will be a solid reliever with every little chance at a rotation. That way I can reiterate that it’s hard to be an MLB pitcher, so projecting someone out as a reliever is absolutely not a knock on them. That’s how I project Teodo, and I’m a big fan of this arm. It’s hard not to like an arm that has such easy velo in it. He would regularly touch 100 MPH, even 101 MPH, on the stadium guns. He complemented it with a sharp curveball and a changeup that always appeared straight on the streams. Teodo’s bullpen projection for me comes from a combination of his pitch mix and high velocity. He can be a high leverage arm touching triple digits with a solid breaking ball. His command is also pretty erratic at times. Love the arm overall as a future backend bullpen option.
Juan Carela, RHP, NYY
This is another arm that likely projects as a bullpen arm right now because of a very high-effort delivery. That’s not to say he can’t tone it down, considering he just finished his age 20 season. There’s still a lot to like with this arm. Carela has a fastball that touched 95 MPH, but generally sat in the 92-92 MPH range. He complimented it with a two-plane break slider and a cutter. In the limited starts I watched of his, he threw that slider early and often. It was a useful pitch that got plenty of swings and misses against Low-A hitters. What he excelled at more, in my opinion, was sequencing enough to keep hitters off balance. And I love pitchers who show feel to sequence.
McCade Brown, RHP, COL
The reason Brown is here is simple. He has some LOUD stuff. This includes a mid-90s fastball and two distinct breaking balls that have high spin rates. His curveball is filthy. If you know this name it could be from our draft team’s fantastic coverage, because they pushed him pretty hard. It could also be because his breaking pitches were shown on Pitching Ninja while Brown was still in college. Either way, his big stuff plays down because of command. To his credit, he posted a 2.31 BB/9 this year, which looks great on the surface. But he was still battling command issues. When I would watch he would fall behind because he was all over the place, then be forced to pitch to the big part of the plate. While his stuff can get whiffs, pro hitters will also hit pitches on the big part of the plate, which is shown in his 5.22 ERA and 1 HR/9.
Coleman Crow, RHP, LAA
Before I ever saw Crow throw a pitch, I saw the spin numbers on his breaking ball and it’s tremendous. Then I watched him and I like what he brings to the table. Another pitcher who has that dog in him on the mound. He’s a competitor. Besides a high-spin breaking ball, which I think he has both a slider and curveball, he throws a changeup that flashes a ton of armside fade at the bottom of the zone. His fastball can touch mid-90s at its highest. The issue Crow runs into is consistency. Whether that be from start to start, or sometimes pitch to pitch. He throws strikes, and when he’s on he’s nasty. When he’s off, well his 1.41 HR/9 tells that story. He can get hit pretty hard. There’s every chance he winds up in the bullpen where his stuff will tick up, but it’s a big league arsenal of pitches.
Keider Montero, RHP, DET
If you told me before August that I would be putting Keider Montero on this list I would’ve laughed you out of the building. I was convinced he was too inconsistent to be a legitimate prospect. But I had a live look where I saw it all come together and I get it now. I’ve never changed my tune quicker on a player. His curveball can touch 3000 RPMs, so when it’s on it’s amazing. On top of that he has a fastball that’s 92-95 MPH. Those two pitches need to be working because it opens up a legit five-pitch arsenal that includes a two-seamer, cutter, and changeup. He’s still very raw in terms of being a pitcher. His feel to command his arsenal, sequence it, and even use it effectively is still a big work in progress. He’s 22 years old kicking around in High-A so a step forward has to come soon. But the groundwork is there for him to make a legitimate jump very soon if something clicks.