2022 Topps Series 1 is the first official 2022 baseball product released and kicks off the Flagship cycle of products as well. What’s even more important is that this is where you will find Wander Franco’s first and true rookie card. In the short term, there will be the Beckett believers and the letter of the law unswayables that will disagree with the fact above given the mistake Topps made with the numbering of 2021 Bowman’s Best. In the long term, 2021 Bowman’s Best “rookie cards” for players without the RC badge will be a footnote in hobby trivia and nothing else. I won’t dwell on the topic much further, but if you are looking for a more middle-of-the-road take, you could classify this as the first card with the RC badge for Wander Franco which in and of itself holds significant value.
Design
The base design goes back to the well with the white full border that we saw in 2021 which I am always a fan of. In a product as mass-produced as Flagship typically is, a white full border is almost essential for keeping the paper and printing flaws that inevitably crop up from becoming a major problem. A full border also should make the parallels stand out and look better. Fortunately, the 2022 design doesn’t suffer from the main issue with the 2021 design of needing a magnifying glass to see the player's name. On the other hand, they may have overcorrected for that. It’s hard to tell from the sell sheet images, but with some of the cards that have already shown up on social media, I have felt less encouraged with the design than I originally did. The player and team name section seem a bit too dominant on the card. Overall a design that the jury is still out on for me and one I will probably need some time with the cards in hand to come to a more solid conclusion.
There will be a multitude of inserts as is typically the case with Flagship - some we are familiar with and some that are one-offs. The main one we are used to seeing is the 35th anniversary throwback which is the classic 1987 Topps wood-grain design that is well-loved in the hobby. This also should be the design for the silver packs chrome mojo cards. But Joe, didn’t we see this same throwback for Flagship back in 2017? You would be correct, voice in my head. In 2017, it was a 30th anniversary insert. Since 2018, Topps has standardized the Flagship throwbacks to be 35 years, so it was inevitable that we would get a repeat a short five years later, and here we are.
For the one-offs, the insert that stood out to me is the Flashiest Feet set. I first saw an insert like this in Noir Basketball with their Sneaker Spotlight and it is well-liked in that product, so I don’t fault Topps for coming up with their own version. It tends to have a lot of appeal with the “sneaker heads” group and there is a lot of crossover between sneaker heads and card collectors. This set also comes with autographs which increases the interest.
In the same vein, an unannounced insert that has taken Panini’s Downtown insert as “inspiration” called Home Field Advantage looks really good. Since it was not included in the checklist, we don’t have any information on how many cards/players are included in it. It has retail odds indicating it will be just over twice as rare as a base Short Print, so there could be some value and chase potential depending on how deep the checklist is for this insert.
Finally, I’ll mention that with Mickey Mantle now back in the Topps licensed-fold, Series 1 will include what is supposed to be a rare Mantle insert called Salute to the Mick. It will be spread across all three Flagship products in 2022.
Configurations
You will find two hobby configurations, regular Hobby and Hobby Jumbo. At the time of writing this, regular hobby boxes are in the $120 - $140 range while hobby jumbos are in the $190 - $225 range pre-sale. Last year Topps sold 2021 Series 1 Hobby boxes for $79.99 direct from their website. A regular Hobby will guarantee you one auto OR relic plus a silver pack (chrome 35th anniversary cards), while the Hobby Jumbos will guarantee you one auto and two relics plus two silver packs. There will also be all of the standard retail formats with blaster boxes, jumbo packs, loose retails packs, etc.
On the day before the release (Tuesday, 2/15), Topps dropped a surprise Hobby edition of Series 1 called 1st Edition that we have been seeing recently in the Bowman world, but haven’t seen for quite some time in the Flagship world (2014 was the last time). It went live to the 582 Montgomery Club members for $350 a box with a maximum purchase of one box per membership. If it does not sell out, it should go live to the public on release day or the days shortly thereafter. The checklist is the full base checklist from regular 2022 Topps Series 1 with rare opportunities to hit autos. No inserts are expected to be included. The main differentiator will be a “1st Edition” foil stamp on the front of the card. According to the parallel odds (9 base foil parallels and 3 auto parallels), it appears there will be just under 7,500 boxes produced. This will likely drive significant demand given the potential lack of supply for the 1st Edition specifically.
Additional Notes
Rip Party - back for its third year in a row, it is scheduled for the day prior to release, Tuesday, February 15. Topps gathers a collection of mostly well-known breakers, in this case 20 of them, in a single convention center style room to break hundreds of cases of Topps Series 1.
Players that don’t have base rookie cards but do have insert and/or auto rookie cards like Edward Cabrera, Seth Beer, Shane Baz, etc. are not included in this write up. I will include them in the Flagship write up for the Series in which they do have a base rookie card.
All teams listed in the Main Attraction section below are the teams shown on the card and not necessarily the team that they are currently on due to trades, free agency, etc.
The Main Attraction
The Main Attraction in Flagship releases is the base rookie cards and all of their associated parallels. Collectors typically consider these cards to be a rookie’s True Rookie Card (TRC) and they hold a comparatively significant demand over most other rookie cards. Before we jump into the breakdown of the rookie checklist, a quick refresher on how I roughly think of my Tiers.
Tier One - Cream of the crop. Combination of high-end Hit and Power tools that won't end up as designated hitters. Power/Speed combo players. Elite SP1 pitchers (very rare). Potential for being perennial All-Stars and award winners.
Tier Two - Bats that may lack in a certain area such as top-end power, three true outcomes players, may be great real life/fantasy players, but not hobby-elite. High-end SP2 pitchers with additional positive factors such as team, arsenal, pedigree, etc.
Tier Three - May have some hobby interest due to a single factor such as prospect pedigree, team interest, general hobby hype, an interesting carrying tool, etc.
Tier None - The likelihood of widespread short-term hobby interest, and most likely long term as well, is close to none. Plenty of pitchers, catchers, role players, hit tool only bats, defense first players, etc. to be found here. Hobby lottery tickets where the odds are stacked against you.
Tier 1
Wander Franco - Rays - The most anticipated rookie card since Luis Robert, which was more pandemic driven, and if Robert didn’t have that extra helium, probably Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in 2019. Pretty much the consensus top prospect prior to his debut, there really isn’t a glaring weakness in his game. His calling card is his double-plus hit tool with above-average to plus tools across the rest of the board. A lot of people believe he is the next superstar and I don’t doubt he will put up multiple all-star seasons, especially if he gets pushed over to third base or second base full time (the competition is often stiffer at shortstop). The hobby has shown a huge amount of love for Wander since his 2019 1st Bowman came out - his prices dipped post-debut, but have been creeping back to their highs in anticipation of his 2022 rookie cards. And people have been paying silly coin for his 2021 Bowman Best pseudo rookie cards.
His debut at the MLB level was on June 22, 2021 which allowed him to accumulate 308 plate appearances over 70 games. The triple slash was a .288/.347/.463 with 7 home runs and 2 stolen bases for a wRC+ of 127. His ATC projection for 2022 is .293/.351/.471 with 18 home runs and 8 stolen bases for a wRC+ of 122. All really good numbers for a player who won't turn 21 until March 1. On the other hand, is this hobby great? I’ve said multiple times when asked that I would be selling Wander cards if I was in the profit-taking game given the atmospheric prices. Ideally his ceiling is Juan Soto, but I don’t know if we ever see him crest the 30 home run plateau like Soto did in 2019. Wander is still a Tier 1 guy for me because of his ceiling and because of the hobby interest, but there is a bit of buyer beware here that everyone should be cognizant of.
Tier 2
Brandon Marsh - Angels - Marsh is that type of player that has the draft and prospect pedigree that makes it hard to not consider in the Tier 1/Tier 2 range. With Jo Adell graduating from prospect lists after the 2020 season, Marsh ascended to the consensus top Angels prospect in 2021. After getting off to a delayed 2021 start due to shoulder inflammation (which cropped back up in June), he made his MLB debut just after the All-Star game in July. It was not the most stellar 70 game sample with a triple slash of .254/.317/.356 with a paltry 2 home runs and 6 stolen bases. He will need to do a lot better than that, and a lot better than his projections for 2022 (ATC has him at .248/.323/.384 with 10 home runs and 10 stolen bases) for Marsh to remain a Tier 2 player by the end of 2022. Circling back around to where I started, his pedigree gives me confidence that he will deserve that Tier 2 ranking. A plus defensive center fielder that will deliver high OBP and has the potential for multiple 20/20 seasons should give him the occasional All-Star bump and retain recent hobby interest.
Jarren Duran - Red Sox - There was big pandemic-fueled hype with Duran as he implemented a swing change to unlock fence clearing plus power during the COVID impacted 2020 season. In 2021, we got to see it come to fruition in the minors with 15 home runs in 46 games prior to his call up to the big league squad after the All-Star break. Let’s just say his stint in the majors did not go well as he struggled to a slash line of .215/.241/.336 with 2 home runs and 2 stolen bases in 33 games. He has double-plus speed as evidenced by his inside-the-park home run that was scored as a triple due to a George Springer bobble. With his swing change, became a lot more susceptible to the upper quadrant of the zone and was taken advantage of by MLB pitchers. He needs a lot more advanced seasoning with his overhauled swing and approach, but now all the ingredients are there to be a real power-speed threat for a highly collectible team.
Vidal Brujan - Rays - As Dennis Green famously said, “He is who we thought he was!”, or something like that. Brujan put up a torrid month of May in his first at Triple-A in 2021 to the tune of .315/.408/.584 with 7 home runs and 9 stolen bases. He was regularly categorized as a plus hit with double-plus speed type of offensive player with below-average power. Suddenly we had visions of plus power and a potential top 10 prospect dancing in our heads. He came back to Earth in June and never hit more than two home runs in a month after May and only put up two hits in his 26 plate appearances he got at the major league level in July. As I said, he is who we thought he was. On the defensive side, he best fits at second base or possibly centerfield, but he has been playing all over to increase his versatility and utility in a crowded Rays depth chart. Best case scenario is Brujan gets traded to a highly collectible team that will give him full-time run at second base or centerfield. The longer he stays in Tampa Bay, the more likely he gets treated like a utility player and stuck behind other young players in a stacked Rays system, leading to less and less hobby interest. For now, I will stick him at the bottom of Tier 2 given the strength of his hit and speed combo, but the lack of power will keep Tier 2 as his absolute ceiling until the power becomes real and not a mirage.
Tier 3
Reid Detmers - Angels - The Angels’ 2020 1st Round pick out of Louisville is my favorite pitcher in the product and someone I contemplated putting into Tier 2. His curveball is a thing of beauty and worth watching whenever you have the chance. A not-so-great debut tempers that excitement a bit. He increased his fastball velocity since college into the 93-94 range and can bump it up to 96. His slider and changeup are still developing pitches, but show promise of being usable off-speed offerings in the future with the slider being particularly effective. The curveball in his small major league sample size of just over 20 innings was confounding hitters to the tune of a .150 batting average against. I like all of the ingredients and am going to stick him at the top of Tier 3 with the hope he takes the next step in 2022 to bump him into Tier 2.
Aaron Ashby - Brewers - Definitely one of the flavors of the month pitchers that are regularly being tagged with a sleeper label in 2022. The Ashby truthers tend to cite the Brewers track record with using future starters in the bullpen until they are ready for the rotation like Peralta, Burnes, and Woodruff. Add in the possibility of a future Josh Hader trade, another ex-starter, as another positive outcome future role for Ashby and the helium is real. His arsenal is mainly three pitches with a show-me curveball that he will throw every once in a while. The primary pitch is a plus slider that is one of the best in the league. The slider ranked third in baseball in CSW%, xAVG, and xwOBACON. He’s moved off of the four-seamer towards a plus sinker which he’ll throw in the 95 - 97 range which drives a very nice 69.8% ground ball rate. Third pitch is an above-average changeup that he’ll throw in the high 80s. If we knew his long term spot was the rotation, I would push him up into Tier 2 as the potential is significant. With the long term bullpen risk and the possibility of going down the Hader path, I am going to keep him in Tier 3 until we get that clarity.
Gavin Sheets - White Sox - He showed off his best tool in his 54 game debut with 11 home runs in 179 plate appearances. Mostly a DH/1B type that can handle the corner outfield when needed. Power is mostly pull side. Floor is probably a strong side platoon with everyday regular upside given his power. Struggles against off-speed and fastballs away. He will need to improve in those areas if he wants to get that daily job. Given the power potential, he is a middle of Tier 3 player with the potential to move up or down depending on the adjustments he makes in the future.
Cal Raleigh - Mariners - Third-round pick in the 2018 draft by the Mariners has successfully transitioned to catcher although there are still questions about his ability to throw runners out. He’s got the leadership qualities you look for in a catcher and profiles more as a power-over-hit bat. With the catcher penalty, he is easily in the bottom half of Tier 3 even with the “future starting catcher of the Mariners” tag you see everywhere for Raleigh. I don’t see much more upside than that even with the bat path geared for power.
Josiah Gray - Nationals - Gray debuted for the Dodgers in late July getting two games in before being packaged with Keibert Ruiz , Gerardo Carrillo, and Donovan Casey for Max Scherzer and Trea Turner. He joined the Nationals rotation for the rest of the season with 12 starts of not the best results. He has a four pitch mix that leans heavily on a four seam fastball in the mid 90’s which ended up being his least effective pitch in his debut season. He filled up the zone and there were quite a lot of barrels and fly balls off of that pitch, not a great combination. He has a curveball and slider that have been really effective and then a developing changeup which he can tend to throw too hard. The slider will get slurvy and end up looking almost identical to his curveball and in a similar velocity range around 83 - 85 mph. A mid rotation arm that will need to figure out how to improve his fastball effectiveness to reach that ceiling gets slotted into my Tier 3 until he shows that next step.
Matt Manning - Tigers - The ninth overall pick in the 2016 draft, the 6’6” prep righty has regularly been in the consensus top five of Tigers prospect lists over the last five years. There was quite a lot of interest as he got called up to the big league squad this year, but to say his debut went awry would be an understatement. Outside of getting an above-average ground ball rate and keeping the walk rate low, pretty much every other metric was horrific. His curveball was his most effective pitch while everything else was hit relatively hard. A slider that was not on his prospect reports was the pitch that failed him the most, so you have to think that is the first thing he ditches if he gets back to basics in a quest to stay in the rotation for 2022. Just looking at his results, he should be an easy Tier None ranking. But with his prospect pedigree and a mid-rotation ceiling, he gets a Tier 3 ranking. He’ll need to start with getting the strikeout rate way up to even stay in Tier 3.
Jackson Kowar - Royals - The comp round 1 pick of the Royals in 2018 out of the University of Florida struggled mightily in his 2021 MLB debut. Part of the Royals’ Big 4 pitchers from the 2018 draft (Singer, Kowar, Lynch, Bubic), there is a fair amount of prospect pedigree with all of them. Kowar’s fastball will sit in the mid to high 90s but was his least effective pitch with it being left in the heart of the plate too much. His changeup is plus with a chance to be elite. It shows really strong drop and good velo separation from the fastball. His third pitch is a curveball although I’ve seen it classified as a slider. The shape and velo seem similar, but regardless if they are the same or separate, it’s an average offering that will need to develop more consistency for Kowar to reach his ceiling of a mid-rotation starter. Prospect pedigree, a plus, and potentially elite changeup, and a mid-rotation ceiling all add up to a Tier 3 player. I’ll slide him into the bottom half of the group as there is high risk of ending up in the bullpen if the changeup ends up really being his only successful pitch in his arsenal.
Kyle Muller - Braves - A 2nd round prep lefty arm out of Texas back in 2016, Muller stands tall at 6’7” with a starter’s repertoire without a starter’s command and control. His delivery looks smooth and easy, but his length gives him trouble with consistently locating his pitches. The fastball sits mid-90’s and his slider and curveball are effective when located. His changeup is below average at best. He spent most of the summer on the big league roster and got eight starts with average results. The walk rate was really his biggest nemesis. Atlanta has no reason not to give him a few more shots to clean that up and reach his mid-rotation ceiling, but there is a lot of bullpen risk given his deficiencies. Prospect pedigree and a decent ceiling slide him into the back half of Tier 3, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the shine continue to come off of Muller and become more of a Tier None pitcher.
Tier None
Lars Nootbaar - Cardinals - Everyone’s favorite fourth outfielder, as dubbed in the 2021 Daily Sheets, has arguably a Tier 1 name but belongs more in the top group of Tier None hitters. The Cardinals 8th round pick in the 2018 draft was off of most prospect radars as he was not tabbed for much power or speed. His biggest asset looks to be his plate discipline with a good strikeout to walk ratio and lower than average swing percentage outside of the zone. In 2021 across Triple-A and the majors, he ended up with 11 home runs, which is more than he had put up in the 2018 and 2019 minor league season combined (9). His swing and approach are geared towards the pull side which shows with teams regularly shifting against him. With the Universal DH, he likely gets more opportunities in 2022 than the projections currently have for him, but I agree with the overall trend of those projections. Low teens home runs and chip in steals in the 5 - 7 range. Should put up around a .250 average with a decent OBP north of .320. All this re-enforces the 4th outfielder/strong side platoon archetype that will keep him locked into the top of Tier None.
Jake Meyers - Astros - After Myles Straw was traded to Cleveland at the trade deadline, the Astros called up Jake Meyers to take over the vacated outfield role. He started off hot with a 129 wRC+ in his debut month of August before fading down the stretch with a 93 wRC+ for the final month of the season. Unfortunately, his postseason was ended with a play in the outfield that led to a torn labrum and off-season shoulder surgery, so it will be difficult for him to be ready for 2022 out the gate (barring a delayed season start). Meyers popped in 2021 as he was off the radar across most Astros prospect lists but put up 16 home runs and .343 average in his three months in Triple-A. Couple that with his double-digit stolen base speed and suddenly you have a potential everyday regular in the outfield. His spray chart also looks promising with his willingness to put the ball all over the field. With a stronger finish to the season and not having to go under the knife, I likely would’ve put Meyers in the bottom half of Tier Three. Given those two negatives, I am going to stick him into the top half of Tier Three and see how he bounces back in 2022.
Matt Vierling - Phillies - Another pop-up guy who seemed to begin to put together the pieces of a future utility player at worst and an everyday player at best. Can play either corner infield spot and every outfield position increasing his defensive value. Put up a 121 wRC+ in his 34 games at the MLB level in 2021 with a .324 average and a .364 OBP. Small sample size and all that, but if he can regress his walk rate and strikeout rate back to what we saw in the minors to a sub-20% K rate and plus 10% BB rate, there is a chance he can hold onto a good portion of those numbers. Looks more like a 10-ish home run hitter than a 20+ guy although his exit velocities point to potentially reaching that 20+ number. Has the speed to get to 10+ stolen bases. Another player I considered for the bottom of Tier 3 but will put into Tier None until we see a larger sample size.
Bryan de la Cruz - Marlins - Acquired by the Marlins along with Austin Pruitt from the Astros at the trade deadline for Yimi Garcia. A strong showing in his small sample size of 58 games with the Marlins after the trade could lead to some hobby interest, but it was fueled by a .380 BABIP. He hit .296/.356/.427 with 5 home runs and 1 stolen base in those 58 games. While he does carry a high BABIP in the minors, I doubt he can put up that good of a triple slash with full time run. ATC is projecting a much more reasonable .268/.322/.407 with 10 home runs and 4 stolen bases in almost double the games (109). An above-average hitter with enough power to probably get to graze 20 home runs and decent speed to put up low double digit stolen bases if he does get a full season starter role, but that still won’t put him in the real hobby relevance realm. A fourth outfielder or second division regular is the most likely long term outcome for De La Cruz and that is someone I typically slot into Tier None. I’ll do the same here but put him near the top as a watch list guy in case he does make a big developmental leap.
Jake Burger - White Sox - Snakebitten by injuries including two Achilles tears, he’s finally healthy and the expected power showed up in Triple-A to the tune of 18 home runs in 82 games in 2021. He has the arm to stick at third but not necessarily the slickest fielder. This might push him to more of a corner platoon/designated hitter role. There are definite swing and miss concerns to be aware of as well. With a bit more prospect pedigree, zero injury history, and a bit younger than his current 26 years old, I might be a bit more bullish by pushing him to Tier 3. Given the sum of the parts, I am going to stick him towards the top of Tier None.
Stuart Fairchild - Diamondbacks - Fairchild was traded to the Diamondbacks along with Josh Van Meter for Archie Bradley in August of 2020. Fairchild is a collection of average to above-average tools that play in all three outfield positions with center field being his main spot. Keeps the strikeouts down and the walks up. A safe fourth outfielder floor with a potential top-of-the-order bat that can put up 10+ home runs and 10+ stolen bases if he can figure out how to handle major league offspeed stuff. Top half of Tier None for now, but the potential to move into Tier 3 if he reaches his potential.
Chas McCormick - Astros - McCormick delivered just above league average results in 320 plate appearances in his rookie season for the Astros. Was known for good plate skills prior to his debut, but was taken advantage of to the tune of a 32.5% strikeout rate and a 7.8% walk rate. Both were significantly negative from what he had been putting up in recent years in the high minors. On the positive side, he was able to put up 14 home runs in those 320 plate appearances. He has good speed and can cover ground at any spot in the outfield. That speed only translated to 4 chip-in steals though. Floor of a fourth outfielder/second division regular with an everyday regular possibility if he can regress the strikeout and walk rates back to his minor league numbers. Still not enough to get him to Tier 3 for the moment, but could get there if he can get to 20+ home runs and 10+ steals with a full-time job.
Tylor Megill - Mets - Initially looked at as more of a bullpen piece as that’s where he finished his college career, the Mets started stretching him out to start in 2019. He ended up providing adequate results in his debut season as a backend starter. His floor is a bullpen arm and his ceiling is a mid rotation starter. The reality is that he probably sticks as a backend rotation arm as his fastball/changeup/slider combo shows enough promise to keep doing it until it doesn’t work. His fastball and slider spin rates are subpar, so it makes you wonder if that is where he can improve and make the jump towards his ceiling. On the other hand, it may just be that is how it works coming from an over-the-top slot from his 6’7” height. There are some good metrics and some not-so-good metrics from his rookie season, so it really depends on what you want to cherrypick here. A Tier None arm for now, but worth watching to see if he continues to improve in the starting role and potentially can get into Tier 3.
Luis Gil - Yankees - Came up for his debut in early August and absolutely shoved for his first three games before being sent back to Triple-A. Came back up three weeks later for three more games and got smashed. Welcome to the Luis Gil experience. A plus fastball in the high 90s that lives at the top of the zone coupled with an above-average to plus slider in the mid 80s. He’ll occasionally throw a changeup with nice arm side run, but struggles to throw it for strikes. Given the mainly two-pitch mix and significant concerns with command and control resulting in a high walk rate, there is definite bullpen risk. I wouldn’t argue if you said he should be in Tier 3, but I am going to stick him in the top half of Tier None until we see he has figured out how to limit the walks and stick in the rotation.
Anthony Bender - Marlins - Sinker slider high leverage bullpen arm. Bounced around the lower levels of the Royals and Brewers systems before ending up in Indy ball where the Marlins turned lead into gold. Bender’s sinker is mid to high 90s while his slider will sit in the low to mid 80s with above average spin and a tight break. As strong a showing as he had in just over 60 innings, he only ended up with three saves and is currently penciled in as the setup man while Dylan Floro is in the closer role. A top half of Tier None arm given his success, but it will be hard to move into Tier 3 without taking hold of the closer job and then locking it down for an extended period of time.
Curtis Terry - Rangers - Big kid that looks like an NFL fullback (does that position still exist?) and possesses the plus raw power you would expect from that body type. Had a brief debut in late July through early August but didn’t make much of an impact. Put up 22 home runs during his time in Triple-A in 2021. Decent bat to ball skills but will strike out quite a bit. Could stand to take some more walks to enhance his ability to get to an everyday player role. Most likely outcome is up and down org depth with that classic Quad-A feel and a future home run champion in the KBO or NPB. Tier None player that could easily get into Tier 3 if he can up his plate discipline and cement his everyday player status as a three true outcome player.
Rodolfo Castro - Pirates - Made his debut in a double-header as the 26th man in April before the minor league season started. Came back up in July and got a total of 31 games all told in 2021 at the big league level going back and forth between the bigs and the minors. Raw and athletic, he’s got good power to the pull side as well as dead center. Rarely goes the opposite way. Has quite a bit of swing and miss in his approach. As with most young players, does much better against fastballs than off-speed pitches. Has enough speed to get some chip-in steals. Can play most positions but is mainly a second baseman. Most likely outcome is a bench bat that can provide power but sub-par average.
Emmanuel Rivera - Royals - A mostly hit-over-power third baseman that suddenly put up huge home run numbers in Triple-A in 2021 which led to a callup to the Royals. He did not carry over that crushing stat line to the major league level as he broke his hamate two games into his debut. He came back and spent all of August and the beginning of September in Kansas City putting up below average results before being sent back to Omaha where he added four more home runs to bring his Triple-A total up to 19 for the year. He went from an uninteresting profile as a hit-first third baseman to a potential second division regular at the hot corner. Still not enough of a jump for me to get him out of Tier None, but maybe worth a watch to see if the power tool continues to show up.
Connor Wong - Red Sox - Part of the return for Mookie Betts and David Price (along with Jeter Downs and Alex Verdugo), he interestingly fits a similar defensive profile that exists on the current Dodgers roster in Austin Barnes. Primarily a catcher but can easily bump out to second base and likely a few other positions in a pinch. Aggressive approach at the plate with a swing geared to put the ball over the fence to the pull side. Leads to high strikeout rates and low walk rates. With the full run, he could hit .240 with 20 home runs, but likely fills more of that Austin Barnes role as a backup catcher plus filling in to give some position players a couple of off-days which will limit any thought of upside he could have. Easily a Tier None player.
Riley Adams - Nationals - Acquired by the Nationals at the deadline from the Blue Jays for reliever Brad Hand. Bat first three true outcomes backup catcher with a strong arm behind the plate being his main asset on defense. Plus power should allow him to reach double-digit home runs even with short playing time. Unlikely to ascend to a full-time role absent injuries ahead of him on the depth chart. Standard Tier None profile.
Andre Jackson - Dodgers - Currently a bullpen arm with a collection of four average to above-average pitches. Can get a fair amount of swing and misses, but lacks the consistent command to potentially shift to a starting role in the short term. Multi-inning reliever until that changes and a Tier None player. If he does find consistent command and graduate into a starting role, someone to watch as potential jump into Tier 3 is in the cards.
Zac Lowther - Orioles - A backend lefty rotation arm that uses deception and a really effective curveball to get hitters out. Mostly in the low 90’s which makes it tough to be anything more than that rotation depth/long reliever type in the long run. If he can find a large velo jump, then he may get into that mid-rotation conversation, but even then it likely doesn’t get him out of the Tier None conversation.
Zach Thompson - Marlins - Originally drafted by the Pirates when coming out of high school but decided to go to the University of Texas instead. Drafted by the White Sox in 2014, he made it all the way up to their AAA level in 2019 but was granted free agency after the 2020 season where he was picked up by the Marlins. Spent all of May in AAA out of the bullpen and then came up in June and stayed up all year. Interestingly, he transitioned right away to starting until September when he got moved to the bullpen for the rest of the year. Pitched surprisingly well for a guy the Marlins picked off the supposed scrap heap - a 3.24 ERA all told at the end of the day. Not a strikeout pitcher but does have a starter’s arsenal featuring a cutter, four-seamer, curveball, changeup, and sinker. Cutter is probably his best pitch with the changeup effectively playing off of it. A backend starter or swingman profile. Circling back around to the top, the Marlins traded Thompson and Connor Scott to the Pirates at the end of November 2021 for Jacob Stallings, completing the circle for him. Given the state of the Pirates rotation, Thompson should be in line for a full time starter’s role, but it’s going to be tough given his arsenal and lack of strikeouts to drive any interest beyond Tier None.
Hoy Park - Pirates - Traded by the Yankees to the Pirates at the trade deadline after a really strong start to the AAA season and seen as a potential pop-up guy, he got a small sample of 45 games with the Pirates to close out the season that underwhelmed. He profiles as a hit-first utility player that is more of a bench bat than an everyday player unless we see that unexpected power from AAA is more real than imaginary.
Luke Williams - Phillies - Standard bench bat with a developing hit tool and above average speed that can play multiple positions in the infield and outfield. Not much power to speak of and doesn’t really do anything worthy of hobby interest. Typical Tier None player.
Ernie Clement - Guardians - Classic utility player profile. Can play anywhere on the diamond, but profiles best at second base and perhaps center field. Low strikeout rate but also a low walk rate as his approach is to swing and put the ball in play all over the field a lot. Another typical Tier None profile.
Drew Ellis - Diamondbacks - The 2017 2nd rounder out of Louisville is a power bat that suddenly decided to not only smash long balls but also put up a much higher average than we were used to seeing from Ellis. This was largely driven by BABIP and the rarified Reno air/PCL inflation. It still earned him a short 28 game late summer stint for the lowly Diamondbacks, which was largely unsuccessful. The expectation in 2022 is that he will mostly be org depth and likely end up as the Quad-A power 1B bat that is better suited for success in the Asian leagues. Another easy Tier None decision even with his potential hobby-friendly power skill set.
Ronnie Dawson - Astros - Had a three-game debut in April before the AAA season started and then spent the rest of the year in AAA. Released in the off-season and signed to a minor league deal by the Reds in mid-December. Athlete that chose baseball over football whose best tools are his speed and fielding in the outfield. Showed an improved approach in AAA in 2021 with a decreased strikeout rate and increased walk rate, but it seems to have come at the cost of power as he dropped down to 7 home runs on the year. Trending more and more to org depth player that can provide speed and outfield defense rather than a power speed everyday center fielder that was his ceiling. A Tier None player with his first org recently giving up on him, but hopefully a fresh start will help him trend back towards his ceiling.
Ivan Castillo - Padres - Had brief three-game debut in mid-May and spent the rest of the season in AAA. Utility player on his third organization has finally found his stride. Can play the majority of defensive positions. Doesn’t strike out much but also doesn’t walk much. Puts the bat on the ball a lot and relies on a higher than average BABIP to cement his offensive success. Should also be able to put up double-digit steals with significant playing time. Doubt he finds a first division regular role long term, but should factor in as a bench bat or second division regular in the future. Easily a Tier None player.
Patrick Mazeika - Mets - Backup catcher that bounced back and forth between the Big Apple and Syracuse in his debut season. He ended up getting 37 games of underwhelming offensive production at the major league level. At his best, he is a low batting average high OBP hitter with decent pop, but doesn’t ever profile as anything more than a backup catcher/second division regular. A standard Tier None profile.
Jakson Reetz - Nationals - Backup catcher that got called up in July for some emergency catcher depth that resulted in a minuscule two at-bats. Had a mini-breakout in 2019, but wasn’t able to repeat it in 2021 and was outrighted at the end of the season. Brewers signed him to a minor league contract as org depth. Classic backup catcher profile and classic Tier None rank.
Zach Pop - Marlins - Part of the Orioles return from the Dodgers for Manny Machado, he was a 2021 Rule 5 pick by the Diamondbacks and then immediately traded to the Marlins. Had Tommy John in May 2019, so 2021 was his first full season back. Mainly a two-pitch reliever arm with a sinker slider combo. Sinker sits 95-96 and lives mostly on the arm side. Slider is a tight breaker in the mid 80s with above-average spin. At his best, he is inducing a lot of ground balls. A nice result for the Marlins in getting a potentially reliable bullpen arm that could eventually find himself in a high leverage role, but not much here for the hobby as he likely doesn’t ever transition to a starter’s role.
Mason Thompson - Nationals - Acquired at the trade deadline along with Jordy Barley from the Padres for Daniel Hudson. Potential back end of the bullpen sinker slider arm with multiple potential plus pitches but significant command issues and injury history may lead to him not being able to get there. Easy Tier None slotting.
Eli Morgan - Guardians - A soft-tossing backend starter profile featuring a double plus changeup, strong command and control, and not much else that is above average. In his 18 game debut sample, he didn’t end up having a ton of success although he did continue to show he could limit walks which is a nice foundation. He’ll probably fill a long reliever role/spot starter in 2022. I don’t see Morgan getting into Tier 3, especially with the lack of future opportunities given the slew of young arms the Guardians have coming up through their system.
Alex Wells - Orioles - Classic soft-tossing pitchability lefty backend starter. Has a four-pitch repertoire led by a fastball in the high 80’s/low 90s. Above average curveball and slider with a below average changeup. Rarely gives up walks by pounding the zone and getting by on deception. While regularly enjoying success in the minors he did not have a ton of successful outings in his debut season and is currently not penciled into the Orioles 2022 starting rotation. Another easy Tier None decision.
Tyler Gilbert - Diamondbacks - Soft tossing lefty that throws a variety of fastballs. Rule 5 selection of the Diamondbacks off the Dodgers roster in 2021. Claim to fame was throwing a no-hitter against the Padres in mid-August. Had good overall stats but it came with a low strikeout rate and an unsustainably low BABIP against. Classic backend starter profile that is very unlikely to drive any hobby interest and an easy Tier None decision.
Max Kranick - Pirates - A backend starter profile that got a nine-game debut in 2021 while bouncing back and forth between AAA and Pittsburgh. Throws four pitches with a mid-90s four-seamer and a sweeping mid-80’s slider as his main secondary. Will throw a tight breaking curveball and the occasional changeup. Not a lot of strikeouts and gets hit too hard but will limit the walks. There’s potentially something here but that might end up being a switch to the bullpen to get his fastball to play up in the high 90’s for a more effective strikeout arsenal. Tier None profile until further notice.
Jake Cousins - Brewers - Cousins is the cousin of Kirk Cousins - You Like That? A slider/sinker bullpen arm that almost quit baseball in 2019 after being cut by the Nationals, the team that drafted him in 2017, he went the Indy ball route and got picked up by the Brewers shortly thereafter. The slider is quite effective with it being thrown 60% of the time and gets plenty of swing and misses. A mid-to-back end of the rotation bullpen arm with past injury history isn’t anything to get excited about unless Captain Kirk decides he’s going to corner the market on his cousin’s rookie cards with his NFL funny money.
Tony Santillan - Reds - Great name to include in your Sopranos Character or Reliever game you play in between innings. Two pitch guy with a mid-90s four-seam fastball and a mid-80’s slider. Both pitches are above average. Has a below average changeup that he rarely uses. Gives up too many bases on balls, but gets his fair share of strikeouts to balance that out. Don’t see much upside towards a rotation role. At best a high leverage reliever role, but that won’t get him out of Tier None.
Zack Short - Tigers - Middle infield utility player that gets playing time through his defensive chops and ability to generate high walk rates. Was overmatched offensively in his 61 games at the major league level in his debut season. Will be hard to end up in an everyday role. Bottom half of Tier None role.
Trey Amburgey - Yankees - Got a brief call-up for a 2 game debut in mid-July before going on the IL and then being sent back down to AAA. Not sure when he ended up getting released, but the Reds signed him to a minor league deal at the beginning of December. An org depth bat that has a little bit of pop and a little bit of speed, but nothing really exciting in the profile. Another easy Tier None choice.
Sammy Long - Giants - The lefty swingman for the Giants didn’t deliver much in the way of results in his 12 game debut. He started in 5 of those games and featured a three-pitch mix with a fastball, curveball, and changeup that was able to induce more ground balls in the lower levels but not so much in the majors. Maybe he can lean more on his off-speed stuff which has shown to be more effective than his fastball, figure out how to attack right handers which was a problem, and find a role at the back of the rotation full-time, but it still wouldn’t get him out of Tier None.
Final Thoughts
2022 Topps Series 1 is all about Wander Franco even if there are those that don’t believe this is the product with his True Rookie Card. Outside of Wander, the rookie checklist leaves a lot to be desired. If we revisit this product in three years and none of the players outside of Wander are worthy of even a Tier 3 ranking, I wouldn’t be surprised. Overall this product unfortunately gets a thumbs down with the hope that some of these rookies exceed expectations.
For more info on the overall checklist, team set breakdowns, inserts, variations, etc., go check out Ryan Cracknell’s Product Details over at Beckett.