As always, we tend to start the discussion of Bowman Draft with the players who were part of that year’s MLB Draft but were NOT included in the same year’s Bowman Draft product. From the first round, we are missing Druw Jones, Jacob Berry (mostly because he was a top 10 pick as I doubt he would be in anyone’s Tier 1 players), Justin Crawford, Cam Collier, Daniel Susac, Spencer Jones, and Xavier Isaac. Druw Jones is THE big name missing - the second overall pick who was in serious consideration for the top overall pick and a legacy player as the son of Braves great Andruw Jones. Spencer Jones missing also hurts a bit since he was the first round pick of the most collectable team in the baseball card hobby - that’s the Yankees, in case you didn’t know.
What we do have is a checklist full of headliners and depth at over 120 players from the 2022 MLB Draft with 1st Bowman cards of one type or another in the product. There’s a lot to dig into, so let’s do it.
Design
The design is what we have been seeing all year with the core Bowman products - 2022 Bowman Baseball released in the Spring and 2022 Bowman Chrome which was released just last month. You can see my thoughts on the base design in my 2022 Bowman Baseball Product Preview here. The main difference will come in the insert sets, but of what we’ve seen so far, which has only been two of the inserts, there hasn’t been anything worthy of additional discussion. However, as some of the Mood Ring inserts popped up on eBay prior to release, I really liked the look of them. In addition, with them being supposedly 1 in 60 packs, they are a bit rarer than normal. Not sure if those odds are the same across configurations or if that is likely just the jumbo odds which would put them at 1 in 5 boxes. Look for these cards to draw a significant amount of interest, especially in the first few weeks post-release at the very least. There also look to be very short printed autographed versions of this insert with each player in the checklist (10 total) getting 6 cards - a superfractor version and then a red version numbered to 5. So a total of 60 cards in the entire print run of mood ring autographs. Those will almost assuredly fetch ridiculous sums, and anyone who hits one will probably demand a king’s ransom.
Configurations
There are typically four hobby configurations.
Jumbo Hobby box - guarantees 3 autos and is roughly $450 pre-sale per box. Scheduled to go live on Wednesday, December 21st.
Super Jumbo Hobby box - guarantees 5 autos and is roughly $700 pre-sale per box. Scheduled to go live on Wednesday, December 21st.
Lite Hobby box - no guaranteed hit, but guaranteed 5 Lite-exclusive Black & White RayWave refractor parallels and is roughly $130 pre-sale per box. Scheduled to go live on Wednesday, December 28th.
Asia Edition Hobby box - one guaranteed auto with exclusive Asia refractors - these have typically been the same thing as the mojo refractors you find in retail Mega boxes of Bowman Baseball and Bowman Chrome. This configuration has not yet been announced that I have seen, but it’s a safe assumption that we will get it at some point over the next few weeks.
Retail formats are never really announced, but Topps has not done retail for Bowman Draft in recent memory, if ever. I expect this to continue this year with no retail formats.
The Main Attraction
When it comes to prospect products, the 1st Bowman logo is all that and a bag of chips. For better or worse, the hobby values that logo above all else in the prospect world and thus it is truly the main attraction. Below is my breakdown of each player that should have a 1st logo in 2022 Bowman Baseball given the checklist released by Topps (and maybe a few who weren’t in the checklist). And here we go…
Prospect Tier Breakdown
I have broken down these “1st” prospects into four tiers based on a combination of my perception of hobby interest and my own personal long-term hobby outlook. As I always say, prospects are the most volatile and highest risk/reward part of the hobby. Finally, real life baseball value, fantasy baseball value, and hobby value aren’t always the same. Keep all of those things in mind as you read my breakdown when formulating your own tiers and evaluations, and as you are buying boxes, singles, and into breaks for 2022 Bowman Chrome.
Tier 1 - Cream of the crop. Combination of high-end Hit and Power tools that won’t end up as full-time designated hitters. Power/Speed combo players. Elite SP 1 pitchers (very rare). Potential for being perennial All-Stars and award winners.
Tier 2 - Bats that may lack in a certain area such as top-end power, three true outcomes players with huge power, great real life/fantasy players, but not hobby-elite, or tantalizing raw talents. High-end SP 2 pitchers with additional positive factors such as team, arsenal, pedigree, etc.
Tier 3 - May have some hobby interest due to a single factor such as prospect pedigree, team interest, general hobby hype, an interesting carrying tool, etc.
Tier None - The likelihood of widespread short-term hobby interest, and most likely long-term as well, is close to none. Plenty of pitchers, catchers, role players, hit tool only bats, Quad-A power bats, defense-first players, etc. to be found here. Hobby lottery tickets where the odds are stacked against you.
*Catchers and Pitchers are often knocked down a tier just due to their position.
Tier 1
Jackson Holliday - SS (Orioles, 1st Base and Auto) - 1st overall pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Orioles out of the Oklahoma prep ranks. Son of former major-leaguer and 7-time All-Star Matt Holliday.
Jackson does everything well and there really are no holes in his game. As he matures, there may be some growing pains if his body is going to turn out anything like his father’s, and that could impact his fluidity at shortstop and push him to third base. As it stands currently, he has plus tools across the board. In his first 20 pro games post-draft, the top line numbers look much better at the Complex than at Single-A, but Single-A is a pretty big ask of an 18 year-old. Looking at the data for all 20 games, it was plus, double-plus, or even elite for all of our standard measures (wOBA, xwOBA, 90th EV, Zcon, Chase), with the exception of zone swing, which was just average. Really hard to complain about that.
1st overall pick and an easy Tier 1 decision given the relative safety of his profile even if the upside isn’t as great as other Tier 1 players like Elijah Green. Holliday is one of the rare five tool players and he comes with hobby hype, draft pedigree, and a legacy cherry on top. The hobby is ready to go all in on Holliday and I am all aboard taking that trip.
Elijah Green - OF (Nationals, 1st Base and Auto) - 1st round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Nationals out of the Florida prep ranks. Son of former NFL tight end Eric Green and at 6’3” and 225 pounds as a teenager, you can easily see Elijah fitting on a football field as much as a baseball field.
A collection of double-plus and elite tools are only held back by an average hit tool. I saw him smash prep pitching on a regular basis for the past few years including this one in heavy wind and rain that just disappears and sticks out vividly in my memory. It’s hard not to gush over the double plus power and in his super small sample of 12 pro games post-draft, he had an elite 90th percentile exit velocity ranking. The speed is also in that double plus category, but given his larger frame, it may not be something he does long term. Given his see ball smash ball mentality, he can get overly aggessive leading to swing and miss concerns.
If Green can channel his plate approach to handle pro pitching, there is an absolute super star ceiling. If he can’t there is still likely an everyday role, but more along the lines of Jorge Soler than Yordan Alvarez. He’s a Tier 1 high risk, high reward player.
Termarr Johnson - SS (Pirates, 1st Base and Auto) - 1st round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Pirates out of the Georgia prep ranks. Often billed as the best high school hitter that we’ve seen in quite a while, Johnson is an intriguing prospect to say the least.
Often listed at 5’10” with a wink, Johnson is now listed at 5’7” and 175 pounds of rocked up muscle. He’s regularly crushed at every stop exhibiting a double plus hit tool with preternatural instincts to see pitches. He also has plus power to tap into even with his short stature. He’s going to steal bases as well, but it doesn’t look to be a huge component to his game currently. While he spent his prep days mostly at shortstop, his arm more supports a move to second base where the Pirates have been playing him for the most part post-draft.
There are a few minor blemishes for Termarr - defensively not having a ton of options, not a lot of place on his body to store bad weight if it ever comes, and a slight tendency towards over-aggressiveness when he has been pitched around. None of that takes away from the pure talent to hit with the ability to mash it over the fence with ease. A no doubt Tier 1 player.
Gavin Cross - OF (Royals, 1st Base and Auto) - 1st round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Royals out of Virginia Tech. I feel like I don’t hear enough buzz about Gavin Cross, but maybe that’s just me in my bubble. Because there should absolutely be a literal swarm of bees buzzing around anyone discussing Cross in my opinion.
Absolute top tier player - since 2020, no one in college baseball has hit more balls over 100 mph - no one. About the only negative is that he likely only provides chip in steals at best. There may need to be some approach adjustments as Cross faces more advanced pitching, but in his small sample of 29 pro games post-draft, he hit 8 home runs with a combined triple slash of .312/.437/.596.
Plus power, hit, and arm. Future All Star right fielder for the Royals young core and an easy Tier 1 ranking for me.
Chase DeLauter - OF (Guardians, 1st Base and Auto) - 1st round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Guardians out of James Madison University. First ever player from that school taken in the first round, DeLauter had a very loud summer of 2021 by taking home MVP honors for the Cape Cod league that year.
DeLauter had a ridiculous 2022 college line hitting .437/.576/.828 with 8 home runs and 10 stolen bases in 24 games. And then he broke his foot and he hasn’t set foot on a baseball field since, so there are still some lingering doubts about how the small school star will fare against more advanced competition.
A bigger, longer guy at 6’4” and 235 pounds, he’s got that tantalizing five tool potential. Double plus power, an above average hit tool with a plus plate approach, plenty of speed, and the ability to play any outfield position with a big boy arm that will easily handle right field. There is definitely risk and areas of concern. He has unconventional hit mechanics with long levers and a power-geared uppercut swing that can be exploited. He was absolutely taken to school by a lefty leaning Florida State squad to start his 2022 season, which triggered some of that small school talent dominating the future gym teachers of America concerns. The risk is high, but there is also a huge potential reward if you’re willing to gamble on DeLauter. I’m in on taking that gamble and will put him in my Tier 1, but this is an absolute must watch in 2023 to see how he fares in pro ball.
Dalton Rushing - C (Dodgers, 1st Base and Auto) - 2nd round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Dodgers out of the University of Louisville. Are the Louisville Cardinals building a catcher dynasty? It sure seems like it, first with Will Smith, then the 1st overall pick in the 2021 MLB draft in Henry Davis, and now with Dalton Rushing.
I don’t think there was a 2022 MLB Draft pick with a better debut than Rushing, coming off the back of crushing his Junior year of college to the tune of .310/.470/.686 with 23 home runs. Disregarding the two games he spent at the Complex, Rushing had a ridiculous 28 games at Single A where went .424/.539/.778 with 8 home runs. Taking a look at the data, it was backed up by an elite wOBA, double plus 90th percentile exit velocity, plus zone swing and chase rates, and he finished in the top 15 overall in our Data Driven Prospect rankings for 2022.
This is the first catcher I am putting in my Tier 1 since I started doing product previews. It really is the near elite power tool with the underlying data backing that up giving me the push into doing so. In general, the catcher penalty has kept me from doing that in the past with guys like the aforementioned Henry Davis. In Rushing’s case, I’m less concerned with that because his bat will force the playing time issue. He has already shown he can play first base and with the NL having gone to the DH as well, I am particularly unconcerned with it for Rushing. He’s not going to steal any bases, and he’s not going to be anything more than an average backstop, but for the hobby, those are such minor concerns as to have no impact on his hobby potential.
Kevin Parada - C (Mets, 1st Base and Auto) - 1st round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Mets out of Georgia Tech. If Parada wasn’t such a strong Georgia Tech commit, he was potentially a first round and at worst a second round pick in the 2020 MLB Draft.
Plus power, plus hit tool. All of his college data was top tier - for example, barrel rate (96th percentile), hard hit rate (98th percentile), zone contact (88%), chase rate (23%), etc. He has an uncertain defensive home and may not stick at catcher. A move to first base is most likely, but may be tried out in various fielding locations while providing a backup or emergency catcher value.
Whatever is needed to keep his bat in the lineup I am all for. The bat is a Tier 1 bat and is only in the bottom half of my Tier 1 given the defensive question marks. And to be fair, those questions in regard to the hobby are only pertinent insomuch as it affects his ability to get full time at bats at the big league level. If the Mets figure out how to give him 600+ plate appearances a year with full health, then I don’t really care what positions he plays.
Tier 2
Brooks Lee - SS (Twins, 1st Base and Auto) - 1st round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Twins out of Cal Poly. Son of the head baseball coach at Cal Poly which is why as a touted prep prospect he was passed on until the 35th round of the 2019 MLB Draft - everyone was well aware he was headed to Cal Poly to play for his dad.
Double plus hit tool with average power. In his 31 pro games post-draft, he had near elite zone contact rates. Not going to steal any bases even if he won’t be a detriment on the basepaths. As he ages, probably will have to move over to third base, which he definitely has the arm to be able handle the hot corner.
Given draft pedigree with being the 8th overall pick and the advanced hit tool, Lee is on the borderline of a Tier 1 and Tier 2 player for me. In real life baseball and fantasy baseball, he’s a Tier 1 future bat. In the hobby, the 20 home runs, even if he hits .300, cap his ceiling. Find a way to get it to 30 home run potential and there is no question he is a Tier 1 hobby player. The only other thing I would add is that if you want a proximity bat, Lee may be your soonest bet for a bat, perhaps along with Neto, to take advantage of price spikes as players debut. I struggled with this ranking, but Lee is going to end up at the top of my Tier 2 players. I would not fault anyone for arguing that he belongs in Tier 1 given the strength of the hit tool and additional positive factors.
Drew Gilbert - OF (Astros, 1st Base and Auto) - 1st round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Astros out of the University of Tennessee. While the draft was going on, I was a bit surprised with Gilbert drifting down from where I thought he was going to be chosen around the middle of the first round down to the end of the round at pick 28 where the Astros must have been jumping up and down to call his name.
Gilbert dislocated his elbow on a catch against the wall in Single-A shortly after making his pro debut, so we didn’t get a lot of data or video to go off of. At Tennessee, he showed off tape measure home runs, big time bat speed, and a big arm. He will have no problem sticking in center field and I expect him to be a long term major league regular at the position with some potential all-star seasons.
It’s easy to see a top of the order bat that will generate high OBP’s (he walked more than he struck out in his final college season) and double digit pop while providing plus defense roaming the outfield of Minute Maid Park. There’s a bit of the “better for real and fantasy baseball than the hobby” given that his ceiling is probably in the 20 home run neighborhood, but I really like the player. Gilbert is an easy Tier 2 rank with an outside shot at some Tier 1 value at his peak.
Zach Neto - SS (Angels, 1st Base and Auto) - 1st round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Angels out of Campbell University. Plus hit tool with a funky swing, average power with the ability to get to it in game, above average stolen base ability, may be able to stick at shortstop, may have to move to second base with just an average arm and range.
Angels pushed him to Double-A quickly after just seven games at High A to start his pro career. He had a successful 30 games at Double-A with a .320/.382/.492 slashline with 4 home runs, 4 stolen bases, and a wRC+ of 132. It was mostly above average to plus data as well with plus zone contact and swing rates.
Neto could see the big leagues as early as this coming season, likely no later than 2024. Easily a Tier 2 player with the draft pedigree and hit/speed combo with enough power to justify this ranking. Overall just a complete player that has very few weaknesses.
Jace Jung - 2B (Tigers, 1st Base and Auto) - 1st round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Tigers out of Texas Tech University. Younger brother of highly touted Rangers prospect Josh Jung who once asked me to send him a baseball card of his I posted on the bird app. Jace - don’t hesitate to reach out if you need any cards as well.
Currently above average hit with a similar power grade that, given his older brother’s track record, it is safe to assume that he could easily get both of those grades up to the plus or better range. Biggest concern is where he plays. Second base is where the Tigers have him playing and that seems to be his best shot to avoid a 1B/DH role.
If Jung can avoid the dreaded first base/DH defensive tag, then he has the future juice necessary to be a Tier 1 player. If he ends up in that defensive black hole, the pressure on the bat to perform increases and his margin for error becomes significantly less. Given the uncertainty and a bit of a drift on draft day down to the 12th overall spot when he was at one point considered a top 5 pick, I am going to be slightly cautious and place him in the top half of my Tier 2. Someone to keep an eye on to see if the hit and power tick up and if he can stick at second base.
Cade Horton - RHP (Cubs, 1st Base and Auto) - 1st round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Cubs out of the University of Oklahoma. If his name was Tim, I’m pretty certain that the Blue Jays would have been contractually obligated to draft him or face being kicked out of Canada. Soared up the boards in 2022 to become the second pitcher off the board (with Rocker being the first) as he was returning from TJ and was one of the few healthy college arms left standing on draft day.
Four pitch mix starting with a plus fastball sitting 95 and a plus slider in the mid to high 80’s with different flavors. Final two pitches are an above average curve in the high 70’s, and an average changeup in the high 80’s with potential.
Tier 2 with risk as there hasn’t been much of a track record to go off of due to the TJ surgery and just 55 innings thrown during the 2022 collegiate season. Being on a collectable team and the best Cubs pitching prospect the second he was drafted cements his Tier 2 ranking.
Dylan Lesko - RHP (Padres, 1st Base and Auto) - 1st round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Padres out of the Georgia prep ranks. Had Tommy John in April otherwise he would likely not have been available for the Padres at pick 15 overall.
Has three premium pitches with a plus mid-90’s fastball, a plus curveball, and a double plus changeup. Has room to grow which in theory should lead to even more velocity on the fastball. Curveball command is inconsistent in that he’ll bury it in the dirt a bit too often, but it still is very effective. The changeup is sublime, tunneling well off of the fastball where it just falls out of the zone, occasionally getting some arm-side run on it as well.
Lesko was the best prep arm in the draft and has true ace potential. The only reason he is in Tier 2 is due to the Tommy John surgery, but there is all the reason to consider him a Tier 1 arm once he is back to full health.
Jud Fabian - OF (Orioles, 1st Base and Auto) - Comp Round B (67th overall) pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Orioles out of the University of Florida. Went back to Gainesville after being drafted in the second round (40th overall) in 2021 by the Red Sox. Haven’t heard any details on what happened, but it’s easy to speculate that perhaps the Red Sox were low-balling after paying full slot for Marcelo Mayer in round 1. In 2022, Fabian signed for the full slot of just over $1 Million with the Orioles.
Fabian is an athletic center fielder with big raw power being his main attraction. Defensively he should be able to stick in center and has a good enough arm to play in either corner. The main concern has been the hit tool, more specifically the swing and miss. At a high level, it looks like Fabian has made significant improvements there, dropping his strikeout rate down from 29% in 2021 to 22% in 2022. The walk rate, already good, showed similar improvements, going from 15% to 20% year over year. There were still times when he reverted back to his old ways, but it was nice to see the positive trends.
An everyday center fielder that could possibly reach the level of an all star with .250 batting average, .400 OBP, 30 home runs, and some chip in steals is definitely something to speculate on. On the other hand, swing and miss power profiles are one of the more riskier gambles to take. Given Fabian’s name recognition, I have him as a middle of my Tier 2 type player, but there is certainly a lot of variability to be wary of (or possibly excited for).
Dylan Beavers - OF (Orioles, 1st Base and Auto) - Competitive Round A (33rd overall) pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Orioles out of the University of California, Berkeley. I wonder what it felt like for Dylan whenever they played Oregon State. I have to imagine the local college papers in Berkeley and Corvallis regularly re-used the headline of Beavers beats Beavers.
Lanky and lean with long levers at 6’4” and 205 pounds. Power speed outfielder with an aggressive approach. Both of those tools are easily plus. The arm is plus as well and should allow him to play any position in the outfield. The hit tool is limited by struggles against spin and just average zone rates.
Optimistically putting him in Tier 2 given the hobby-friendly power-speed tool set, but there is high risk present with this ranking as his length and swing mechanics are ripe for exploitation by advanced pitching.
Jacob Melton - OF (Astros, 1st Base only) - 2nd round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Astros out of Oregon State University. Melton was the Pac-12 player of the year and presents an intriguing tool set for the hobby.
In 19 games at Single-A in 2022, he slashed .324/.424/.577 with 4 home runs and 4 stolen bases. He had double plus 90th percentile exit velocities, plus walk rates, and above average zone swing and chase rates. Unfortunately that came with below average zone contact rates and that was mostly attributable with his struggles against the soft stuff. His swing is an uppercut power producing to all fields fastball smasher which can leave him vulnerable.
The hit tool and how Melton handles off speed and breakers is really going to tell the tale of whether Melton is going to reach his potential. I’m going with a Tier 2 ceiling rank even though I could easily talk myself into ranking him in Tier 3 given the hit tool concerns. Ultimately he provides the plus pop we look for in the hobby, good speed, at least during his prime years, and enough defensively that he shouldn’t get pushed out of an outfield spot.
Ryan Cermak - OF (Rays, 1st Base and Auto) - Competitive Balance Round B (71st overall) pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Rays out of Illinois State. This was the pick the Rays acquired along with Isaac Paredes from the Tigers for Austin Meadows. Still not sure why anyone trades with the Rays.
Power mashing center fielder with swing and miss, especially to the outside of the plate as he looks to use his pull-side power. We did see quite an improvement in the strikeout rate from 2021 (25%) to 2022 (19%), which gives me hope there is an above average tool in his future. Has the speed to stick in center field, but only has provided chip in steals on the base paths up until now.
Cermak has some big boy juice in the bat and I am here for it. In real life baseball, he’s probably a Tier 3 player given an average hit tool. In the hobby, I feel like this is a sneaky hobby profile, but I just may have stars in my eyes and end up being the overly optimistic high man on Cermak. Welcome to Tier 2 Sir Smack!
Tucker Toman - SS (Blue Jays, 1st Auto only) - 2nd round compensatory pick (77th overall) in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Blue Jays out of the South Carolina prep ranks. Toman was a massive over slot deal for the Jays, signing him for $2 Million in a slot just under $850K.
Toman is a switch hitter with plus power from the left side and more of a line drive approach from the right side. Defensively he doesn’t likely stick at shortstop and fits better at third base and/or second base. In the 11 games of pro ball post-draft, he roughly split his time between third base and shortstop. There doesn’t look to be much if any stolen bases in the profile. I did see some breaking stuff that he had issues with, but I also saw him miss a breaker once and then smack a similar breaker thrown at him in the same at bat.
There have been varied opinions on Toman and the negatives tend to point to some aggressive approach concerns as well as the just average power from the right side. I fall on the optimistic side of Toman’s skills leading to a potential really good player with some All-Star potential. I see easy plus power from the left side, where he will spend the majority of his at bats. This is an easy Tier 2 player given the draft and prospect pedigree with potentially plus hit and power tools.
Henry Bolte - OF (Athletics, 1st Base and Auto) - 2nd round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Athletics almost out of their own backyard from Palo Alto High School. I remember seeing Bolte’s name still on the board after the first round and thinking that it was potentially one of those prep guys that was being passed on because of signability concerns, but lo and behold, the A’s, of all teams, were able to make the deal happen. He signed for $2 Million, which was a little more than $650K over slot.
You hear this term used a lot, and I use it a lot, but Bolte definitely has that power-speed combo in spades. When watching his high school video, he looks like a man among boys at 6’3” and 200 pounds. When he got the fastball, he knew what to do with it and there were regular tape measure shots. When he was facing breaking balls and off-speed pitches, he was a lot more challenged and I saw plenty of weaker contact. With that weak contact, he was still able to beat out a lot of prep defenders to get base hits simply because he was so fast.
In the outfield he had no problem manning center field and his arm is definitely strong enough to play anywhere on the grass. It all boils down to the hit tool component, which is lacking currently. If he can get to average or even above average with the contact and approach, he is easily an everyday regular. More than that and he could be a five tool superstar worthy of a Tier 1 ranking. For now, I’ll take the road between overly optimistic and too cautious and put him in Tier 2.
Cooper Hjerpe - LHP (Cardinals, 1st Base and Auto) - 1st round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Cardinals out of Oregon State University. One of the few touted college pitchers that made it through the 2022 season intact, Hjerpe set the Oregon State single season strikeout record while mowing down Pac-12 competition.
Hjerpe’s three quarters delivery really helps play up his low-90’s fastball. The spin and approach angle make it an easy plus pitch. At times the velocity has gotten into the mid to high 90’s in short stints - if that happens with any regularity, you are looking at a potential ace given his plus slider and above average changeup. Everything I watched was basically arm-side or middle of the plate - rarely saw anything to the glove side of the plate, which may need to be an area of focus so that advanced bats won’t exploit.
The sky really is the limit for the lanky lefty. There is an obvious mid-rotation role given the arsenal and strike throwing capability with SP2/ace upside for the 1st rounder which makes him an easy Tier 2 pitcher ranking for me.
Kumar Rocker - RHP (Rangers, 1st Base and Auto) - 1st round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Rangers out of Vanderbilt University via a gap year in the independent Frontier League. After being drafted by the Mets at 10th overall in 2021 and not coming to terms with them due to potential medical issues, Kumar had “minor” shoulder surgery in September and eventually worked his way towards pitching for the Tri-City ValleyCats for a total of 20 innings. He was reportedly up to 99 with the fastball in those 20 innings, something he wasn’t even close to towards the end of his Vandy career.
The fastball is more often mid-90’s at the moment with some command issues which were prevalent in the AFL in 2022. The slider is really the belle of the ball here as it is a double plus whiff generator. He will also throw a cutter in the high 80’s and a changeup in the mid 80’s with both being average pitches. The whole profile relies on the fastball velocity and command to have a second pitch to couple with his devastating slider.
Similar to Elijah Green, Rocker is the son of a former NFL player (Tracy Rocker) and has that look of a big bodied defensive player like his father. That body looks like it could carry the load of a staff ace for many years to come. However, with a murky health situation already in his recent past and plenty of questions surrounding his on and off command, there is plenty of risk in his profile. He is a hugely recognizable name for a pitcher after having stints of domination in college including a 19 strikeout no-hitter in his freshman year as well as leading Vandy to the College World Series Championship in the same year. Given that notoriety and very high ceiling, even with the extreme risk at the moment, Rocker gets a Tier 2 ranking with the full range of outcomes equally in the cards.
Brandon Barriera - LHP (Blue Jays, 1st Base and Auto) - 1st round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Blue Jays out of the Florida prep ranks. Shut it down in April during his Senior year to avoid any potential injuries (not that he was at risk specifically) and it seemed to be a smart decision given how many draft-eligible pitchers were being bitten by the injury bug. Can you imagine an actual bug that bit you and your UCL tore? Nightmare fuel.
He has a four pitch arsenal - a plus sinker in the mid-90’s that’s touched 98, a potential double plus slider that pairs very well with the sinker, average changeup, and average cutter. Both of those average pitches are infrequently used. A bit on the smaller side than the prototypical starter at 6’1” and 180 pounds.
Barriera is an athletic mid-rotation starter with SP2 upside. With the draft pedigree of the Blue Jays taking him in the first round and paying a bit more than $500K over slot and that upside, he gets into my Tier 2.
Connor Prielipp - LHP (Twins, 1st Base only) - 2nd round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Twins out of the University of Alabama. Signed for roughly $200K over slot. Had Tommy John surgery in 2021 and before that he was trending towards a potential top 10 pick in the 2021 MLB Draft.
Above average fastball in the low to mid-90’s from the left side which plays up. Double plus slider with high spin that is extremely effective. Little-used Changeup but has some feel for it - pro dev should be able to unlock it.
Barely has any innings under his belt due to the pandemic-shortened season and then TJ shortly after the 2021 season started. Easy to hang a mid-rotation label on him with the ability to dream on more to come. High risk Tier 2 ranking, but the slider alone pushes Prielipp into that conversation and the rest of the package cements that ranking for me.
Peyton Pallette - RHP (White Sox, 1st Base and Auto) - 2nd round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the White Sox out of the University of Arkansas. Signed for almost $375K over slot.
Above average fastball with very nice carry on it and an elite curve with 3,000+ rpm spin on it - an absolute CSW (called strikes + whiffs) monster. Changeup is an average third offering that can flash but he didn’t throw it a ton.
Pallette Tommy John in January so we didn’t get to see him at all in 2022. If we did, he likely would have been a 1st round pick and he would end up in Tier 2 given his SP2 upside with no second thought. Sometimes I am cautious with TJ guys, but with Pallette I would be willing to take that risk. He’ll be an optimistic Tier 2 ranking for me.
Owen Murphy - RHP (Braves, 1st Base and Auto) - 1st round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Braves out of the Illinois prep ranks. Two way player in high school that was considered a potential tough sign if he wasn’t given that opportunity, but the Braves were able to pick him in the first round going almost $1 Million under slot.
It still remains to be seen if the Braves give him any hitting reps, but for his time with the org post-draft, he was spending all of his time on the mound. Features a plus mid-90’s fastball that he can get whiffs up in the zone with, a plus curveball that also gets plenty of swing and miss, and an above average slider.
Looks like a mid-rotation starter, which is typically a top half of Tier 3 profile absent any other factors. Given his two plus pitches, playing for an org like the Braves that gets the most out of their prospects on both sides of the ball, and the Braves being a highly collectable team, he gets that push into the bottom half of Tier 2.
Ivan Melendez - 1B (Diamondbacks, 1st Base and Auto) - 2nd round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Diamondbacks out of the University of Texas. Nicknamed The Hispanic Titanic for the titanic home runs he hit during his time in Austin.
Melendez is a power bat, first base/dh profile that has plus power with an average hit tool. Plus barrel, 90th percentile exit velocity, and zone contact rates in college as well as the pros. However, he didn’t do much with his small sample of his first 29 professional games outside of hitting 3 home runs.
On the borderline of Tier 2 and Tier 3 and ultimately the hit tool will decide if he’s Pete Alonso or Bobby Dalbec. Given he has that most desired of hobby tools, he gets the benefit of the doubt with a Tier 2 ranking. The elite nickname also doesn’t hurt.
Reggie Crawford - LHP/1B (Giants, 1st Base and Auto) - 1st round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Giants out of UConn. Physical and athletic and looks like an absolute unit that should be playing linebacker for the football Giants. Currently a two way player although we don’t have much clarity on the Giants plans for him.
On the mound has a double plus fastball that can touch triple digits with ease and a potential plus slider with the changeup being an ineffective third pitch. But it’s really just projection at this point as it’s been less than 20 innings on the mound in college and the Cape. Had Tommy John surgery at the end of 2021 so he’s not been on the mound at the pro level yet.
On the other side of the coin, he’s a power hitting lefty first base/DH type with swing and miss concerns. He had a really small sample of 19 at bats at the Complex at the end of 2022 just to get back into a baseball mindset. It did not go well as he had 9 strikeouts in 19 at bats, but we can basically throw it out.
Couple the 1st round pedigree and the intrigue around his two way skills and potential and you end up with an extreme risk Tier 2 player. It is all really just conjecture and guessing at the moment with Crawford as we don’t even really know which path his career will take positionally.
Landon Sims - RHP (Diamondbacks, 1st Base and Auto) - Competitive Balance Round A (34th overall) pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Diamondbacks out of Mississippi State. After being a lights out reliever prior to 2022, Sims stepped into a starters role in his final collegiate season and looked like an absolute beast until his elbow blew out. He had Tommy John surgery this past spring which dropped him from what was likely a top 10 pick down to 34th where the Diamondbacks grabbed him.
Sims fastball borders on elite with approach angle, spin rates, whiff rates, and chase rates on it all at the top of the charts. It sits mid 90’s and will hit 98 with the ability to throw it anywhere in or out of the zone. I saw him consistently go up above the zone with it to get whiffs which was very impressive. He pairs that with a double plus slider that makes batters look foolish as they are so geared up for the fastball. It sits mid-80’s with high spin and sweep - it really is a thing of beauty. In theory he has a changeup, but in the video I watched, I didn’t see him throw it, so I’ll just have to rely on the reports for that one as being average in nature.
If Sims didn’t come down with a torn elbow ligament and we got to see what a full season of what starting games looked like, I would guess he would be a top half of Tier 2 guy for me. The floor is a high leverage reliever that should have no problem closing games with his double dose of near elite pitches. The ceiling is like looking up on a cloudy day and wondering what it looks like on the other side - you just don’t know but you want to guess that the sun is shining as bright as ever. I want to believe that Sims, with his fiery attitude on the mound telling batters to get back in the box, can be a staff ace someday, but we’ll just have to wait for the weather to clear. It’s a very high risk ranking, but I am putting Sims into the bottom half of my Tier 2.
Cole Young - SS (Mariners, 1st Base and Auto) - 1st round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Mariners out of the Pennsylvania prep ranks. Not flashy, but an all around solid professional baseball player.
Young is a hit over power middle infielder that should have no problem being an eventual everyday regular at shortstop or second base. His 17 games total between the Complex and Single-A post-draft were exactly what you would expect from him. He hit .367/.423/.517 combined between the two levels with 2 home runs and 4 stolen bases. Plus zone contact and double plus chase rates add to the context of having an advanced hit tool to go with his strong barrel control. At Single-A, his swinging strike rate was a miniscule 3.4%. All the at bats I watched simply felt like he was a player completely in control that was advanced for his age and competition level.
Young is easily a Tier 2 player for me. The challenge is that there isn’t a Tier 1 profile here without a significant development in the power department that doesn’t negatively impact his advanced hit tool. I really like Young from a real baseball and fantasy baseball perspective. From a hobby perspective, he’s a good player that likely will see occasional bumps based on list placement and strong slashline numbers, but doesn’t have that hobby ceiling that you want out of a 1st round pick.
Jett Williams - SS (Mets, 1st Base and Auto) - 1st round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Mets out of the Texas prep ranks. Took a $340K under slot deal as the 14th overall pick in the draft.
Defensive home is more likely third base or second base than shortstop or possibly even center field, but in the small sample of post-draft games he played all of his defensive reps at shortstop. Has plus makeup. Plus hit and plus speed with average power.
Top of lineup bat, but lack of power pushes him down the Tiers. Borderline of Tier 2 and Tier 3. Mets collectability and 1st round draft pedigree push him into the bottom of Tier 2 for the short term, but longer term his skills profile as a Tier 3 player.
Tyler Locklear - 3B (Mariners, 1st Auto only) - 2nd round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Mariners out of Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU). The Atlantic 10 2021 Player of the Year is a power/hit combo corner infielder that has some tantalizing hobby talents.
In 31 pro games, mostly spent in Single-A, Locklear was as advertised. He hit .285/.366/.504 with 7 home runs and no stolen bases. The data looked really good for the small sample with an elite xwOBA and plus to above average rankings near everywhere else including 90th percentile exit velocity and zone contact rates. The only average ranking came in with his chase rate, which will be something to watch. On the defensive side, he’s mostly been playing third base, but he projects as a first base type in the future, which will add pressure to his hit tool performance.
At 6’3” and 210 pounds, he looks like a solid, muscular framed masher that doesn’t provide any value on the bases or on the defensive side. To me he is in that area that straddles Tier 2 and Tier 3. I’ll put him in Tier 2 as the small sample data was impressive and he has that hobby-desirable hit/power combo, but it’s with a word of RoboScout-based caution. The Hitter Comp tool had two really gut punch names with Kevin Cron and AJ Reed, who ended up being more Quad-A type players than anything else. This is definitely a buyer beware situation.
Jacob Miller - RHP (Marlins, 1st Base and Auto) - 2nd round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Marlins out of the Ohio prep ranks. I remember watching Miller getting drafted during television coverage as they showed him at the draft and made a point to call out how he had brought his high school battery mate with him to share in the experience - top notch stuff right there.
Four pitch arsenal with a mid-90’s plus fastball that can get whiffs up in the zone, a high spin, plus curveball that will also generate whiffs, a high spin, hard slider, and a lesser used changeup.
I really liked the pure stuff I saw from Miller with two plus pitches and a promising slider. I think we are looking at a mid-rotation starter with easy upside to get to an SP2, especially given the Marlins pitching development track record. I’ll take the shot on Miller and push him up into my Tier 2.
Noah Schultz - LHP (White Sox, 1st Base and Auto) - 1st round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the White Sox out of the Illinois prep ranks. 6’9” and lanky, the tall lefty is the first prep arm the White Sox have drafted in the first round in over 20 years.
Three pitch arsenal. Two seam fastball that has jumped from the low-90’s to the mid 90’s. Big spin, horizontal sweeping plus slider that is going to cause lefty hitters nightmares. Mid-80’s above average change up is the final weapon in the arsenal.
Hard to have a ton of confidence in this profile since making it as a starting pitcher with this type of height is more the exception than the rule. So far, Schultz fills up the zone and seems to be trending towards being one of those exceptions. Judging purely on stuff, he’s easily got mid-rotation upside. The real challenge will be if he can consistently command it given his height. This is an optimistic ranking in Tier 2 given the risk with Schultz’s stature, so definitely a buyer beware situation, but all of the components at the moment justify it.
Sal Stewart - 3B (Reds, 1st Base and Auto) - 1st round compensatory pick (32nd overall) in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Reds out of the Florida prep ranks. Big frame at 6’3” and 215 pounds.
Plus power bat with an accompanying above average hit tool. The main concern for Stewart is where he’ll play on the diamond. While he should have enough defensive skills to play third base, there will likely always be a better defensive third baseman on a team’s MLB roster. This will push Stewart into a first base role, especially if he puts on any bad weight as his body ages. And that in turn puts a lot more pressure on the bat.
The power and hit tool combo is too good from a hobby perspective to let the negative defensive questions to outweigh the positives. It’s a borderline Tier 2 and Tier 3 ranking and I’ll land on the optimistic side until we see a strong reason to back down from it. This is truly a situation where the hobby ranking likely outpaces the real baseball ranking.
Tier 3
Sterlin Thompson - UTIL (Rockies, 1st Auto only) - 1st round compensatory pick (31st overall) in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Rockies out of the University of Florida. Spent the majority of his time in the outfield at Florida with the rest of it at second base. After the draft, the Rockies had him play exclusively right field at the Complex and then exclusively at third base at Single-A. His primary home is likely either corner outfield spot with the ability to fill in at third as needed or second in a pinch.
In his two years at Florida, Thompson regularly hit for a high batting average with roughly average power. In his 26 games between the Complex and Single-A, he again showed the ability to get the bat to the ball with a .307/.351/.453 triple slash. It has to be taken with a bit of caution as there was some BABIP driving those numbers. On the negative side, he had only 5 walks while racking up 28 strikeouts. That’s a bit uncharacteristic given his college days, but he’s also regularly facing more advanced pitching. They are taking advantage of Thompson struggling against off-speed, breaking balls, and heat up in the zone.
Thompson looks the part of a future major leaguer with his ability to punish fastballs in the middle to lower half of the zone even if it’s more line drive contact. The plus exit velocity numbers help his case and a future home field in Denver does as well. I’m not bought in from a hobby perspective, but I’m giving him some credit for early draft pedigree, running high batting averages, and being on a team that can potentially supercharge offensive numbers. I’ll cautiously rank him in Tier 3 with a Tier 2 ceiling if everything goes his way. The floor is there, but I’m not sure yet if the ceiling is. I feel like I may be the low man on Thompson as with some adjustments to unlock his power and handle high heat and breakers, Tier 2 becomes a reality. I have been too often burned by Rockies prospects so I am going the cautious route here.
Jordan Beck - OF (Rockies, 1st Base and Auto) - Competitive Balance Round A (38th overall) pick in the MLB Draft by the Rockies out of the University of Tennessee. Beck was one of the stars, along with Drew Gilbert, in this draft from the juggernaut that was the University of Tennessee in 2022.
Beck has plus raw juice in his bat with a swing and approach geared towards putting the ball over the fence. With a full time role, we are easily looking at a 30+ home run bat and ending up in the Rockies org doesn’t hurt with that projection. In his small sample in pro ball, 26 games split between the Complex and Single-A, he had plus 90th percentile exit velocity and wOBA, elite xwOBA, and double plus chase rates. He has the arm to stick in right field and will probably put up close to 10 steals, maybe a little more at his peak.
There is concern as he moves up to face advanced pitching that his struggles against breaking balls will show itself more and more. If he can get that figured out and get to an average or even above average hit tool, then this is a Tier 2 bat all day. Until we see that, I will be a bit cautious and put him in Tier 3, which pains me a bit, because watching him smash balls over the fence is a thing of beauty.
Mikey Romero - SS (Red Sox, 1st Base and Auto) - 1st round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Red Sox out of the Southern California prep ranks. Back to back years with the Red Sox dipping into the Southern California shortstop ranks for their first round pick, although this time it was much further back in round 1 and they were able to go under slot by almost $700K.
Romero comes with a plus hit tool, average power, and the defensive chops to stick at shortstop, although with Marcelo Mayer ahead of him, he may eventually end up elsewhere on the diamond if he stays in the Red Sox organization. A good problem for Boston to have to be sure. In his small sample size of 19 pro games, he had plus zone swing rates and elite zone contact rates, which, yeah, that’s pretty good.
He doesn’t project for much power which lowers his hobby ceiling and pushes him to Tier 3 even with the advanced hit tool. Likely to be treated as a Tier 2 hobby player initially due to first round pedigree and collectable team.
Eric Brown, Jr. - SS (Brewers, 1st Base and Auto) - 1st round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Brewers out of Coastal Carolina University. Athletic middle infielder that turned in a strong 2021 both at Coastal Carolina as well as the Cape to get on the map. Followed that up with a just as good final college season to land at the back end of the 1st round of the 2022 MLB Draft.
Final MLB position is still up in the air as he may be moved over to second base or into the outfield. No carrying tool, but has a collection of average to above average tools. Hit tool has the potential to be plus with further development and some of that may come with a more traditional pre-swing setup as well as getting used to big league breaking stuff.
Easily Tier 3 with Tier 2 consideration and upside if he can tick up in the hit and power departments.
David McCabe - 3B (Braves, 1st Auto only) - 4th round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Braves out of UNC-Charlotte. Most scouts believe the bigger-bodied McCabe (6’4” and 235 pounds) is more suited for a first base future than third base which will put a lot more pressure on his offensive skills. However, in the small sample of pro games in 2022, Atlanta kept running him out at third base, so they sure are hoping he can stick at the hot corner.
The switch hitter has potentially a plus hit tool with above average power, especially from the left hand side. In the small sample of 28 games, he had plus 90th percentile exit velocity as well. Given his frame, there’s no surprise that stolen bases are not part of his game.
If McCabe remains at third base, there’s a lot better chance he can find an everyday role. Something along the lines of a .260 - .280 hitter with 20+ home runs. If he gets pushed over to first base, it will be much harder to find that everyday role and may end up more of a bench bat. Given the risk, I’ll slot him into Tier 3, but he’s a borderline guy that I considered for Tier 2.
Anthony Hall - OF (Yankees, 1st Base and Auto) - 4th round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Yankees out of the University of Oregon. As a kid growing up in the 80’s, Weird Science, The Breakfast Club, Sixteen Candles, and Johnny Be Good were all must watch films for me. I wonder how much Anthony Hall gets associated with Anthony Michael Hall, one of the stars of those films and part of the Brat Pack, and if he actually knows who that is. My guess is his response when asked would simply be a dismissve “OK Boomer” or whatever the cool kids say nowadys.
Hall is an offensive minded outfielder that may end up pushed to first base long term. After a solid 2021 both at Oregon and the Cape, he broke out in 2022 with 14 home runs and a triple slash of .333/.402/.640. He hits velocity well, but is challenged with breaking balls and offspeed. Looked like a pull-side approach with a smooth left-handed swing from the little video I saw.
Because of the potential power tool and Yankees collectability, Hall is an obvious Tier 3 ranking. I’ll be watching in 2023 to see where he plays defensively and to see if he can improve on hitting breaking balls and offspeed. There is definite Tier 2 potential here.
Gabriel Rincones, Jr. - OF (Phillies, 1st Base and Auto) - 3rd round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Phillies out of Florida Atlantic. Just ANOTHER legacy player in this draft and product - Rincones is the son of Gabriel Rincones Sr. who pitched briefly for the Mariners in the late 90’s.
Solid corner outfield bat with above average hit and big raw power that comes with some swing and miss against off-speed. Saw him hitting the ball with impact to the pull side as well as the opposite field in college video. Arm is below average so he will be locked into either left field or first base and that leads to more pressure on his bat to perform.
Rincones didn’t take any pro at bats post-draft but did attend instructs and reports and data were glowing. Given that, I expect to see some extra hobby bumps for him as more and more lists come out with him in the Top 10 range for a weak Phillies system, especially on the bats side of the list. I’m going to put him in Tier 3 with that buzz and hobby friendly plus power. A must watch for 2023 to see how he performs in a full season against pro competition as there is a lot of potential upward momentum (and downward as well).
Jackson Cox - RHP (Rockies, 1st Base only) - 2nd round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Rockies out of the Washington prep ranks. Some of the money that the Rockies saved with their first round pick Gabriel Hughes helped in signing Cox by going $300K over slot.
Features a low to mid-90’s fastball with some pretty arm side run. Follows that up with a big spinning, plus slider that prep competition had no clue how to deal with. Will also throw an average changeup, but I didn’t see much of it.
Taking a look at his video for the first time made me exclaim “Ohhh” like the face Shaq makes while tasting some spicy wings in his Hot Ones appearance. If I buy pitchers for the hobby, I want that big whiff stuff otherwise it’s almost always setting that money on fire. If Cox were in an org known for developing arms, I would consider him in Tier 2. In a bottom tier pitcher dev org like the Rockies, I unfortunately am going to slot him into Tier 3.
Walter Ford - RHP (Mariners, 1st Base and Auto) - Competitive Balance Round B (74th overall) pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Mariners out of the Florida prep ranks. The Mariners really like F-150’s, so they drafted Ford’s in back to back years. Trader Jerry test drove Mike Ford during the 2022 season and I wouldn’t be surprised if he makes a move to acquire Ford Proctor at this point.
Ford’s one of the youngest players in this draft class as he reclassified from a 2023 class, where he was being considered a potential top 10 pick, to the 2022 class. Given his youth, it’s no surprise that he is far from a finished product, and that’s definitely what I was seeing in my video looks. The fastball was mostly 93-95 and he was throwing it the majority of the time. The control on the pitch was spotty and I didn’t catch much movement on it, leading it to be hit a bit more than I like to see. The slider command wasn’t there at all, but when he was hitting his spots, it was a legit swing and miss pitch with high spin. I saw one changeup, and it looked great with arm side movement to it, but there’s probably a reason he wasn’t throwing it much.
There is a lot of raw clay to work with in Ford’s profile. A starter’s frame at 6’3” and 195 pounds and two potential plus pitches, especially as he matures and adds velocity. The Vanilla Missile has a mid-rotation profile. With command, some added velocity, and the development of his changeup, there may even be more. For now, he’s a Tier 3 pitcher with an 80-grade nickname.
Cole Phillips - RHP (Braves, 1st Base and Auto) - 2nd round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Braves out of the Texas prep ranks. Phillips had Tommy John in the spring which knocked him out of first round consideration, but he did sign for $200K over slot in the second round.
Big time prep arm with a plus fastball, above average breaker, and a little used changeup. The mid-90’s fastball has good extension allowing it to play up. The breaker is either a curve or slider in the high 70’s that at times has good shape, but I did see the breaker all over the place and not consistently shaped in the video I watched. Changeup is a distant third pitch that will need more time to give him that well rounded starting pitcher arsenal.
Tier 2 talent in the future possibly but slotting into Tier 3 given the lack of a usable third pitch and the Tommy John setback.
Alex Freeland - SS (Dodgers, 1st Base and Auto) - 3rd round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Dodgers out of the University of Central Florida. A switch-hitting shortstop that I can see the Dodgers turning into a valuable major leaguer.
He looks more dangerous hitting from the left hand side while from the right hand side I saw more swing and miss with gap power rather than over the fence power. Defensively he can play shortstop but likely fits better elsewhere. Given the Dodgers propensity for versatility, I can easily see Freeland getting time at pretty much every position outside of catcher. Same team comps can be lazy, but this really feels like a switch hitting Chris Taylor player. And that profile is a Tier 3 player all day.
Adam Mazur - RHP (Padres, 1st Base only) - 2nd round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Padres out of the University of Iowa. Made a name for himself in the Cape Cod league in the summer of 2021 and continued to rise up boards in 2022 at Iowa. His draft stock was also really helped by all of the big name college arms going under the knife in 2022.
Has a plethora of pitches starting with a mid-90’s four seamer. He follows that up with a mix of four pitches with the slider looking like the best pitch as it moves from 12 to 8 and tunnels with his curveball. He has a two seamer that he will throw in the high-80’s to low-90’s as well as a changeup that I didn’t see him throw much. All of his pitches showed good command and each one seemed like it had whiff potential.
There was nothing that blew me away with Mazur, but I also had zero complaints from what I saw. The floor is a backend SP while I think he should be able to hit an SP3 type with relative ease. The ceiling beyond that probably depends on adding good mass to his lanky frame to find more velocity and more strikeouts. For now he is a pretty easy Tier 3 pitcher.
Hunter Barco - LHP (Pirates, 1st Base only) - 2nd round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Pirates out of the University of Florida. I recall hearing his name a lot before the 2019 draft as a prep prospect of note but ultimately he decided to head to Gainesville.
Saw his stuff tick up in 2022 getting his fastball velocity up a few MPH to mid-90’s with better command leading it to become much more effective. Plus slider and an above average changeup round out the arsenal. His lefty motion looks like it starts slow and then just slings it from a three quarters delivery which may add a bit of deception to his pitches. Fills up the zone while hardly walking anyone - just 11 in 50+ innings.
Stop me if you’ve heard this before - a college pitcher that had to get Tommy John during the 2022 college season. His spin and data profile aren’t the best, and I’ve seen his fastball get hit hard at times by some of the better college bats. It’s a mid-rotation profile that may be a bit of a bumpy ride to get there which is squarely in Tier 3 for me.
Jonathan Cannon - RHP (White Sox, 1st Base only) - 3rd round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the White Sox out of University of Georgia. I’m sure the joke has been made a thousand times, but we’ll likely hear it a thousand times more with something along the lines of “Cannon has a cannon on the mound”.
Mid-rotation upside now that he has two above average pitches with his two seam fastball and cutter with the cutter being a new development this year. Has average slurve and changeup with both flashing for whiffs in video looks. Fills up the zone with good command - only had 12 walks in 13 starts in 2022, but doesn’t get a ton of strikeouts and more is inducing weak contact. Led the Georgia pitching staff for the past two years. At 6’6” should have no problem standing up to the rigors of traditional starter innings.
Had a forearm strain in April but came back from it to pitch in 2022 and actually logged some innings post draft in the White Sox farm system. He looks like he should have no problem sticking in a rotation, but he likely won't grab many headlines or lead an MLB rotation without racking up more strikeouts. Without gaudy strikeouts in his arsenal, he’s more of a Tier 3 pitcher for me.
Gabriel Hughes - RHP (Rockies, 1st Base and Auto) - 1st round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Rockies out of Gonzaga. Hughes was regularly being mocked more towards the back half of the first round throughout the draft process, but the Rockies went and got their guy at the 10th pick overall. When you’re a starting pitcher, not sure you want to be “the guy” for the Rockies, but it's hard to complain when you get paid four milly. Speaking of being paid four milly, this was an under slot signing as the 10th pick slot value was just a smidge under $5 Million.
His arsenal is mostly fastball and then some more fastball with the splash of slider mixed in. It’s like when I order a jack and coke at a bar where I am tipping big and the bartender pours the glass full of jack and adds a splash of coke (not that I would know anything about that). The heater sits mid-90’s and is mostly straight as an arrow with some occasional arm-side run. He commands it relatively well. The slider lives in the mid-80’s with a nice break and decent spin to it. The majority of the ones I saw him throw ended up glove side on the edge of the plate or off of it altogether. There’s definite work to be done commanding that pitch. His third offering is a changeup in the mid-80’s that I rarely saw, but it was an average pitch.
Hughes profiles at the moment as a potential mid-rotation starter that will need plenty of development to reach that outcome. His 1st round draft pedigree will help drive some hobby interest. But, his landing spot of Colorado is often a death knell for starting pitches on top of not being a hugely collectable team in general. I am putting Hughes in Tier 3 given his pedigree, but I would not be rushing out to get his cards.
Justin Campbell - RHP (Guardians, 1st Base and Auto) - Comp Round A (37th overall) pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Guardians out of Oklahoma State University. A kid local to my town, I’m surprised I never ran across him, because, well, I would not forget seeing a 6’7” teenager. Actually, this probably just means I need to get out more.
Campbell focused solely on pitching in 2022, which was the correct decision as it got him drafted in the top 50, even if it was $400K under slot (signed for $1.7 Million). Has a four pitch mix led by low to mid 90’s fastball which can touch 97. The whiff-inducing secondaries are headlined by an above average curveball, a similarly effective changeup, and an average slider that is more of a show-me pitch currently.
With his length, Campbell’s delivery has plenty of moving parts which can impact his command. There also isn’t any standout pitch, but there really aren't any major concerns. I would like to see the velocity ratchet up a notch. Campbell looks the part of a future rotation piece and he’s in an org that knows how to mold them. He was a big strikeout guy in his final season in Stillwater to the tune of 12.5 K/9. All of that points to at least a back-end rotation piece if not a future mid-rotation piece, but to do that he needs to be regularly popping mid-90’s or better. He’s a Tier 3 pitcher with upside.
Christopher Paciolla - SS (Cubs, 1st Base and Auto) - 3rd round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Cubs out of the Southern California prep ranks. A pop up prospect in 2022, I’m pretty sure we grow prep shortstops on trees out here.
Has a good offensive foundation with above average hit and power tools. May end up elsewhere on the infield given his below average speed, most likely third base. Doesn’t quite look the part yet and would love to see him pack on the muscle. Only got seven games in 2022 at the Complex after being drafted which didn’t go well, but we can essentially throw those out.
High variability to this ranking until we can see him have a full pro season under his belt. Some draft pedigree, a collectable team, and a good prep-level skill set. Swing looks pretty impactful at times. For now I’ll put him in Tier 3 although I anticipate that this ranking is more of a temporary placeholder. I expect him to either shoot up the board or drift down it after a full year of pro ball - definitely a watch list guy.
JR Ritchie - RHP (Braves, 1st Base and Auto) - Competitive Balance Round A (35th overall) pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Braves out of the Washington prep ranks.
Three pitch mix with a low-90’s fastball, mid-80’s slider, and mid 80’s changeup. All three pitches are above average. With Ritchie, it’s about the plus command allowing all three of his pitches to play up.
Ritchie has a solid floor of a back-end starter with a decent ceiling of a mid-rotation starter should he add velocity, a fourth pitch (he was throwing a curve at one point), and/or adding movement to anything in his arsenal. He’s a Tier 3 rank given the draft pedigree and potential upside.
Karson Millbrandt - RHP (Marlins, 1st Base only*) - 3rd round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Marlins out of the Missouri prep ranks. Millbrandt was a Vandy commit that took over-slot money to get him to sign with the Marlins.
The righty features a four seamer that sits in the low 90’s that can top out in the 96-97 range with plus spin on it. Already shows a horizontal arm-side run with decent command that is just pleasing to the eye to watch video of. Throws a curveball and slider that both flash at times, but command looks iffy on those for now which is not surprising with teenage arms. Didn’t see much of a changeup and it’s likely his fourth best pitch at the moment.
Millbrandt looks to be a high-ceiling future starter with a foundational fastball and promising breakers. The Marlins have shown to get the best out of prospect pitchers (as opposed to hitters), so if I was looking at prep pitchers to throw a gambling chip on, Millbrandt would definitely be one to consider. For now, I will put him in Tier 3 and definitely a guy I want to watch full starts of in 2023 to see how much I should be moving him up or down or not at all.
*Topps lists Millbrandt as only having 1st base cards even though he posted autographed cards to his social media. This may be a Topps omission on the checklist or for whatever reason Topps decided not to include them in the product.
Trey Lipscomb - 3B (Nationals, 1st Base and Auto) - 3rd round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Nationals out of the University of Tennessee. His full name is LaVictor Antwain Lipscomb - not sure how Trey came into the picture as his preferred name, but I also can’t blame him as I am sure he was subject to way too many La Victoria salsa jokes. He was a pop-up prospect in his Senior year at the University of Tennessee after three years of part-time reps
There’s above average power, an average hit tool, and the ability to steal some bases even if he’s not a gazelle. The hit tool suffered from some aggression in his first go at pro ball but that wasn’t much of a concern at the college level so it may have just been initial pro ball try-hard type stuff.
Streaky player that should be able to stick at third base but could easily end up playing all four corners to increase his versatility. He has the ability to do everything well, but nothing special. Every day player with an outside chance of some hot streaks that vault him to occasional prominence. Enough to get him into the bottom half of Tier 3.
Dominic Keegan - C (Rays, 1st Base and Auto) - 4th round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Rays out of Vanderbilt. Drafted in the 19th round by the Yankees in 2021 but decided to bet on himself and go back to for his Senior season in Nashville, which turned out to be a smart decision.
Plus to double plus power with an average hit tool. Hit one over 450 feet with a wood bat in the 2021 Cape Cod league, so the raw juice is there. In his super small sample of pro ball after the draft, his 90th percentile exit velocity was elite. However, to illustrate the hit tool concerns, he didn’t chase at all, but had bottom of the barrel zone swing rates. Again, small sample, so I won’t read too much into any of these numbers, but something to check back in on in 2023. He won’t be stealing any bases so that is another tick against his hobby profile. Catcher primarily but due to injuries and college team depth has played first base and outfield as well. Is basically average at best anywhere he has played on the diamond.
If he could get that hit tool up to an above average level, I would be considering him as a potential Tier 2 player given the raw power, especially if he was more defensively versatile. As it stands, it’s a Tier 3 player that’s worth keeping on your watch list to see how the hit tool develops.
Sonny DiChiara - 1B (Angels, 1st Base and Auto) - 5th round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft of the Angels out of the University of Auburn. He signed for less than half his draft slot as a money saving option for the Angels.
Power-only 1B/DH type that got an aggressive assignment to Double-A right out of the gates. Started out hot reaching base in 18 of his first 32 plate appearances leading to his name popping up all over the place but slowly but surely he began to struggle with strikeouts. Strong walk rates have always been part of the profile as he shows double plus chase rates.
Looks and plays the part of Dan Vogelbach (I am not the first person to mention this and I won’t be the last). Three true outcomes player, but the power is fastball-focused and above average rather than plus or double plus. He gets into Tier 3 rather than getting a look at a Tier 2 ranking like some other three true outcome players might. He likely doesn’t have a future full-time role but is more of a platoon bat or second division regular like the aforementioned Vogelbach. If things don’t break right, he could easily drift towards Tier None as more of a Quad A player.
Cayden Wallace - 3B/OF (Royals, 1st Base and Auto) - 2nd round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Royals out of the University of Arkansas. Had a lot of buzz as a prep prospect in 2020 but the Pandemic shortened draft pushed him into heading to Fayetteville.
Power corner bat with an average hit tool. Arm is plus which should help add to his versatility in being able play right field. Will steal some bases although not a major part of his game.
Should be able to find a role as an everday player in some capacity. A Tier 3 player as the power tool is above average while the hit tool holds him back from reaching Tier 2 status.
Robby Snelling - LHP (Padres, 1st Base and Auto) - Competitive Balance Round A (39th overall) pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Padres out of the Nevada prep ranks. A two sport player that was a high school quarterback and linebacker who was once planning on being a two sport college athlete for the University of Arizona as well.
Primarily a fastball slider arsenal with a hint of a changeup. Fastball is low to mid-90’s and the slider (seen it classified as both a curve and a slider) sits in the high-70’s to low 80’s with good spin. Didn’t see the changeup and it sounds like it needs a fair amount of future development to cement a future starting role.
The Padres had to go $1 Million over slot to sign Snelling ($3 Million signing bonus, $2 Million slot value) to get Snelling out of his LSU Baseball commit. That lends credence to the assumption that the Padres will do everything in their power to see Snelling work out as a starting pitcher. However, unless the changeup comes along, there is definitely some bullpen risk here. Given the money spent, two above average to plus pitches, and the likelihood that Snelling will universally be in the neighborhood of a top 5 Padres prospects (that system is rough right now), I will slide Snelling into Tier 3. However, this is another buyer beware situation with a lot of risk.
Ben Joyce - RHP (Angels, 1st Base and Auto) - 3rd round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft of the Angels out of the University of Tennessee. Flame throwing future high-leverage reliever that could easily end up in the closer role.
Fastball/Slider arsenal but it really is all about the ridiculous heater. Radar clocked him at 105 in college, although that was probably a favorable reading. He is more often sitting 98 - 101 and touching 103 and filling up the zone and getting a ton of zone whiffs. The slider is the main secondary with a really nice break, but almost no command. He has a changeup, but I’ve not seen it and it is reportedly average at best. I doubt he uses it much now, and in the future it is most likely just a change-of-pace pitch if he keeps it.
There is significant injury risk in his profile with a past Tommy John surgery, shoulder issues, and growth plate issues, so even more than usual with pitchers, it’s buyer beware. Most relievers get thrown into Tier None, but Joyce gets here just because of the notoriety of his fastball velocity, the multiple Pitching Ninja posts, and the chance he becomes a closer piling up saves throughout his career.
Robert Moore - 2B (Brewers, 1st Base only) - Competitive Balance Round B (72nd overall) pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Brewers out of the University of Arkansas. Son of former Royals GM and current Senior Advisor for the Texas Rangers Dayton Moore.
High floor low ceiling player. Going to be an absolute rock solid second baseman with zero defensive concerns. Strong plate approach that will walk as much as he strikes out with average pull-side power. A strong number two hitter who will be a little bit light on the juice you’d like to have in that slot.
Had much better results in 2021 than 2022, but couldn’t really find an explanation for why (perhaps a nagging injury I didn’t see anything about). Recognizable name within the baseball community and likely will get a bit of hobby value out of that as well as his plus makeup. Borderline Tier 3 and Tier None for me and I will push him into the bottom of Tier 3 because he should find a way to an everyday job and the extra intangibles.
Josh Kasevich - SS (Blue Jays, 1st Base and Auto) - 2nd round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Blue Jays out of the University of Oregon. While Kasevich was likely to go around this spot (60th overall), he was signed for $200K under slot which was part of the savings needed for the Blue Jays to go massively over slot on signing Tucker Toman.
Plus hit tool with a ton of contact. While he walks at just an average clip (9% in 2022 at Oregon), his strike out rate is excellent (6% in 2022 at Oregon). Has average power that will take more pull-side focus to tap into - was starting to do it in 2022, but still saw a lot of opposite field contact in pro ball footage. While his speed isn’t anything to write home about, his instincts at the shortstop position are plus. I don’t see any reason why he can’t stick there, which should help with a future everyday role if he doesn’t tap into his power.
Advanced hit tool with strong defensive chops give him the floor of an everyday player which is a Tier 3 ranking. If he taps into his pull-side power to get closer a future 20 home run hitter, then you’re starting to see a Tier 2 player.
Andrew Pintar - SS (Diamondbacks, 1st Base and Auto) - 5th round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Diamondbacks out of BYU. I like to think the Dbacks front office was confused why Andrew Painter was back to being draft eligible and rushed to submit the pick when they saw him on the list of unpicked players, but started looking around confusedly when the school Andrew played for was called out as BYU.
Pintar came out of the 2021 college season as an up and coming name to watch with a plus hit tool and good exit velocity numbers. After 17 games in his 2022 season, he went down with a shoulder injury that required surgery, so we didn’t have much to go off of. He does most everything well, but nothing is plus at the moment. The bat path is typically flat to engage the contact skills, but he will go down and get it when necessary to put the ball over the fence. While he has speed on the basepaths, it didn’t translate to many stolen bases. His arm is the main negative which will end up pushing him to second base unless he comes back from surgery with a cannon installed.
There’s potentially an every day top of the lineup second baseman here with a good hit tool, 10-15 home runs, and potentially a similar amount of steals. He has the floor of a bench bat/utility player since the bat should play at the major league level. Pintar’s in that border of Tier None and Tier 3, and I’ll go with Tier 3 based on the 2021 season, but he’s not someone I would be rushing out to buy given the risks and lack of recent playing time.
Nathan Martorella - 1B (Padres, 1st Auto only) - 5th round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Padres out of the University of California, Berkeley.
Collection of solid tools with nothing standing out that will have a ton of pressure on the bat to perform at a high level and be an everyday starter given the defensive limitations. Has one of the wider stances you will see and crouches down with just a slight weight shift to his back leg prior to swinging. It’s an approach more geared for contact than power which he showed plenty of in his first small sample swing through pro ball. A quick 11 games at the Complex where he batted .387 with a .457 OBP that got him promoted to Single-A for the final 17 games of his season. He continued his success at Single-A hitting .288/.403/.458 with a couple of home runs. Unfortunately both stops came with above average or worse ground ball rates - 47.5% at Single-A and 52% at the Complex, underscoring his hit over power concerns.
A patient, hit over power approach at what will likely be the hardest position to make the big leagues with that skill set (first base) isn’t a recipe for hobby success. He’s a borderline Tier 3 and Tier None profile but with some internal team support for Martorella, I’ll optimistically put him on the positive side of the coin flip in Tier 3.
Drew Thorpe - RHP (Yankees, 1st Base and Auto) - 2nd round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Yankees out of Cal Poly. Hails from Washington, Utah, which must cause a bunch of confusion when you have to explain how you can be from two states at the same time - seriously, help me understand.
Three pitch mix with a low-90’s average fastball, double plus fading changeup, and a sharp slider that he throws infrequently but flashes potential. Plus command completes the starter package.
Definitely a backend starter role with mid rotation upside. Given the Yankees bump, it’s enough to push him into Tier 3.
Nate Savino - LHP (Diamondbacks, 1st Base only) - 3rd round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Diamondbacks out of the University of Virginia. Another in a long line of pitchers that the University of Virginia tried to ruin for their future pro potential, Savino made a mechanical change in 2022 to shorten his arm swing and lead foot approach to regain his pre-Virginia fastball velocity.
His fastball got up to 94-96 after the changes while it was sitting 91-92 before that. Has an inconsistent, sweepy slider in the low to mid 80’s that at its best gets swings out of the zone and weak contact. His third pitch is a low 80’s changeup that tunnels well with the fastball, but I didn’t see him throw it a lot.
There’s a starter profile here and I would like to see a few starts in pro ball in 2023 since he didn’t get any innings post draft. If it trends toward that low velocity lefty that he was for most of his Virginia career, it’s a Tier None rotation depth arm. If we see what we started to see towards the second half of his final season at Virginia, there’s mid rotation upside from the lefty. Since that’s what we most recently saw, I’ll slide him into the bottom half of Tier 3.
Parker Messick - LHP (Guardians, 1st Base only) - 2nd round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Guardians out of Florida State. Messick was the ACC 2021 Pitcher and Freshman of the year and made the All-ACC first team in 2022.
Has a four pitch mix starting with a low-90’s fastball that is most effective when he can get it up in the zone. If not, it ends up being an average pitch. The star of the show is his plus changeup that tunnels very well with the fastball. At times the pitch is double plus and simply gets a ton of swing and miss. He also has two average breakers that are thrown infrequently in a slider and a curveball.
Maxed out backend pitcher but the changeup is so effective that it gets him out of Tier None. Tier 3 innings eater with some potential upside movement mainly because of the Guardians fantastic pitching development machine.
Carson Palmquist - LHP (Rockies, 1st Base only) - 3rd round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Rockies out of the University of Miami. The comp has done many times before and will be done many times in the future, so I’ll just get it out of the way here by saying, yes, watching him pitch gives you those Chris Sale vibes.
That comp comes from the left handed Palmquist’s pitching motion and arsenal. He comes at the hitter from a low, three quarters horizontal angle of attack. The fastball is mostly around 90 MPH, but was mid-90’s when he was pitching in relief prior to his final college season in Miami. A majority of the heaters I saw this year were landing on the arm side of the plate. He balances that out with a well-tunneled, sweepy slider in the mid-70’s mostly targeted to the glove side of the plate. A low-80’s above average changeup that also plays well off the fastball and generates whiffs completes the package.
At worst, Palmquist is a high leverage bullpen arm. Given the Rockies ever-present need for starting pitching, he’ll get every opportunity to prove he can start. Right now it is just a backend starter chance given the lack of velocity. If he can regularly get up to that mid-90’s velocity we saw in relief, then he becomes a lot more interesting and those Chris Sale comps suddenly feel a bit more real. Simply because those comps are prevalent already, he gets into the bottom of Tier 3 as that will likely lend a bit of hobby juice to his cards. Absent that, I would’ve ranked him in Tier None.
Thomas Harrington - RHP (Pirates, 1st Base only) - Competitive Balance Round A (36th overall) pick in the MLB Draft by the Pirates out of Campbell University. Big South Conference Freshman of the Year in 2021, Big South Pitcher of the Year in 2022, led NCAA Division I with 12 wins, and set a single season strikeout record at Campbell with 111 on the year.
Three quarters delivery that gives ride and arm side run to his low-to-mid 90’s two seamer. Started throwing a four seamer as well in the mid-90’s in 2022. Swing and miss sweepign slider in the low-80’s. A high 70’s curveball and an above average mid-80’s changeup complete the arsenal.
There’s strike throwing and a potential mid-rotation upside with a backend starting floor for Harrington. He’s a borderline Tier 3 and Tier None player, but I’ll stick him into Tier 3 given the high pick and the full arsenal found in the Home Depot Pitcher Starter Kit (patent pending).
Chase Meidroth - 2B (Red Sox, 1st Base and Auto) - 4th round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Red Sox out of the University of San Diego. Under slot guy as it took just a little bit over half his slot value to sign ($272K signing bonus, $461K slot).
The carrying tool is a double plus hit tool. Great plate approach where he rarely strikes out and regularly posts more walks than strikeouts. In his small sample size of 22 pro games post-draft, he had elite zone contact with double wOBA and plus chase rates. While he can put the ball over the fence because of the quality of contact, the raw power is average, if that. He won’t steal many bases either. On the defensive side, he’s limited by a fringey arm to second base.
Essentially an empty hit tool guy, but with the hit tool so strong and a very collectable team, it’s enough to get him into the bottom half of my Tier 3 rankings.
Cutter Coffey - SS (Red Sox, 1st Base and Auto) - 2nd round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Red Sox out of the California prep ranks. Two way player in high school that the Red Sox look to be pushing towards the offensive side of the game.
Plus arm strength and good hands should allow him to stick somewhere in the infield even if it’s not shortstop. In the few games he’s played post-draft, he’s played both shortstop as well as third base. Line drive hitter that isn’t yet hitting for much power. Essentially average hit and power projections.
Coffey is on that borderline of Tier 3 and Tier None for me. Red Sox bump and a high-ish draft pick gets him into the bottom half of Tier 3.
Brenner Cox - OF (Nationals, 1st Base and Auto) - 4th round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Nationals out of the Texas prep ranks. Two way player in high school as well as a two sport athlete playing Quarterback for the high school football team. Nationals paid him almost double slot, giving him $1 Million with a slot value of $549K.
Currently lacks power, hit tool and speed are above average from the left side. Given the pitching experience in which he was getting up to 94 on the heater, his arm should have no problem playing anywhere in the outfield. Held his own in a super small sample of 10 games at the Complex post-draft with a .286/.366/.400 triple slash with 1 home run and 2 stolen bases. Did strike out at a 33% rate, which is not good, but again, a very small sample here.
If the power develops, he can get an everyday outfielder role and given the price the Nationals paid, it looks like they think he can get there. With the money commitment, and liking the little video that I could find of him, I’ll optimistically stick Cox into the bottom half of Tier 3. Also, get your mind out of the gutters.
Douglas Hodo III - OF (Orioles, 1st Auto only) - 6th round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Orioles out of the University of Texas. You get a legacy player, and you get a legacy player, and you get a legacy player! Oprah out here running the 2022 MLB Draft. Hodo is the son of Douglas Hodo II who was drafted and played in one minor league season for the Phillies in 1986.
Hodo III doesn’t have any stand out tools but doesn’t have many weaknesses. Speed, defense, hit, with a bit of surprising pop, he looks like an everyday major leaguer. On the other hand, there isn’t a huge ceiling and he can get aggressive with his plate approach leading to less than impactful contact.
Like many of the legacy players, he’s got high marks in makeup and baseball instincts. He’s on that line between Tier None and Tier Three, but the intangibles give him just enough of a push for me to put him into Tier 3.
Bryce Hubbart - LHP (Reds, 1st Base and Auto) - 3rd round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Reds out of Florida State.
Deceptive delivery with a mid-90’s riding fastball with good data characteristics, a mid-70’s curveball with a secondary slurvy version in the low-80’s that can flash plus, and a less-used changeup. Fills up the zone driving plus strikeout rates although this may not be as sticky as he faces more advanced hitters.
Backend starter floor with perhaps a bit more potential to hit an SP3/SP4 ceiling. On that border between Tier 3 and Tier None. For now I’ll put him in Tier 3 with the high strikeout rates, but will be prepared to drop him into Tier None if the strikeout rate drops.
Jacob Misiorowski - RHP (Brewers, 1st Base and Auto) - 2nd round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Brewers out of Crowder College. Tall and skinny 6’7” with loud stuff and a ton of projection.
Double plus fastball that will touch triple digits regularly with a plus, low-90’s sweeping slider that he throws for whiffs. Also has a changeup and a curveball but neither are used much if at all.
A lot of relief risk, but also some special pitches to dream on that could lead to a future starting role as well. The Brewers have done some great work on the pitching dev side, but you never really know which path they will send their prospect pitchers down. This is typically a Tier None profile, but the industry buzz and metrically plus pitches in a strong dev org make it too enticing for me not to bump him up to a Tier 3 player.
Justin Boyd - OF (Reds, 1st Base and Auto) - Competitive Balance Round B (73rd overall) pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Reds out of Oregon State University.
Boyd looks to be a collection of average to above average tools with the biggest question marks surrounding his future defensive home as well as home run power. Hit tool and speed does provide enough to balance out those deficiencies giving him a shot at an everyday role in some capacity. Did not have a great run in his 21 games at Single-A post draft hitting below the Mendoza line and posting a higher OBP than slug (neither of which were good).
A strong college performer, it’s questionable whether Boyd can translate them successfully to the big league level. He is on that border line between Tier 3 and Tier None. With the hit tool being one of the better pieces of the puzzle, it has a better chance of tipping the scales in his favor, so I will gingerly slide him into the bottom of Tier 3.
Cade Hunter - C (Reds, 1st Auto only potentially*) - While Hunter showed off 2022 Bowman Draft cards that he autographed on social media, Topps does not list him in the checklist. I have included a writeup on him in the scenario where Topps mistakenly omitted him from their checklist (which is known to happen).
5th round pick in the 2022 MLB draft by the Reds out of Virginia Tech. Second catcher drafted by the Reds in the 2022 draft after they took Logan Tanner in the second round. Broke out with a full time starting job in his junior year in Blacksburg.
Power bat with plus bat speed that should hit enough to get to that power. Tanner is the better prospect behind the plate, but Hunter should be able to stick there as well if the Reds choose to do so. The main differentiator is that power potential, and it’s why I have Hunter ranked higher, even if it’s at the bottom of Tier 3. If you’re fishing in the Reds’ catcher pond, Hunter is the ceiling play while Tanner is the floor play. It also may be time to find a new fishing hole.
Jimmy Crooks III - C (Cardinals, 1st Base and Auto) - 4th round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Cardinals out of the University of Oklahoma. Crooks. Catching base theives. So many terrible jokes to be made, but I don’t want to steal the thunder of the many play-by-play and color guys calling games past, present, and future.
Hit first catcher that can play the position, but doesn’t have any plus defensive tools. Went straight to Single-A post-draft and held his own with the stick hitting 3 home runs and putting up a .396 OBP in 23 games.
There’s a floor of a backup/platoon MLB catcher as long as he keeps progressing at the art of catching. At best, he could turn into an everyday catcher with some occasional impact with the bat along the lines of a poor man’s Yasmani Grandal. A borderline Tier 3 and Tier None player, he gets the bump into Tier 3 because the tools lean hobby-friendly.
Tier None
Ignacio Alvarez - 3B/SS (Braves, 1st Base and Auto) - 5th round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Braves out of Riverside Community College in California. If your first name is Ignacio, your nickname has to be Nacho. Those are the rules. I don’t make them, I just follow them. And it appears Alvarez follows those same rules.
He was a bit of a pop-up prospect given his 2022 results, but question marks were aplenty given the lack of competition he faced in high school and junior college. In his first year at Riverside, he put together a .370/.494/.582 triple slash with 5 home runs and more than doubled the amount of walks than strikeouts. Post draft he repeated a lot of that in 30 games, split evenly between the Complex and Single-A. He hit a combined .287/.451/.394 with one home run and a similar walks (26) vs. strikeout (15) approach. It looks like he takes a very passive approach as his zone swing rate was at the bottom percentile of minor league hitters and the chase rate was towards the top, in the double plus range. When he did swing at pitches in the zone, he hit them, so he definitely has bat to ball skills, he just needs to use them.
Alvarez was surprisingly given an over slot bonus of $140K making you wonder if he had a strong commitment to a four year school lined up. The expectation is that he should be able to stick at third base so he wont have too much pressure on the bat, but I still question if he will have enough in-game pop to get to an everyday role. Given the lack of prior competition, passive plate approach, and no standout tool, I am going to put him in the top half of Tier None and watchlist to see if the power comes around. If it does, then he will be shooting up lists as a potential every day guy.
Jakob Marsee - OF (Padres, 1st Base and Auto) - 6th round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Padres out of Central Michigan University. The hit tool is the calling card with Marsee as he showed elite contact and chase rates in college and followed that up with similarly graded out stats in his 31 games of pro ball post-draft.
Very patient approach, as can be inferred from the data and video. He’s never had below a .396 OBP outside of a couple games played in the Northwoods League after his Freshman year of College. Even in the zone he’s not swinging a ton and instead looking for pitches he can put in play. There’s next to no impact on those in play balls which is going to be a problem as he gets shifted out of center field more and more. He’s typically splitting time between center and the corner outfield spots, but his lack of power is best hidden in center field.
Carrying tool is the hit tool with the ability to put the bat to the ball on anything he decides to swing at. There is some speed on the base paths as well that helps give him a potential major league future. Passivity and lack of oomph hold him back from being anything more than a Tier 3 player at best as a hitterish OBP leadoff guy with low double digit steals. Looks like a 4th outfielder type right now and is currently a Tier None player until something changes in the profile to get an every day role on a first division roster.
Tanner Schobel - SS (Twins, 1st Base and Auto) - Competitive Balance Round B (68th overall) pick in the MLB Draft by the Twins out of Virginia Tech. Smaller statured player that showed a surprising jump on the offensive side in 2022 including almost tripling his home run totals from 7 to 19, landing him a top 70 draft slot.
Does everything well but nothing is plus. Not really a threat to steal bases even with decent speed. Even with almost 20 homers in his final college season, he’s more likely a gap power type in the pros closer to 10 home runs. Defensively is more likely to end up at second base than shortstop given he’s mostly average at the 6.
A good player for real life baseball that has a ceiling of an everyday first baseman, but I don’t see anything that would drive hobby interest. He’s a top half of Tier None player until we see his 2022 offensive skill jump stick in a full season of pro ball.
Cade Doughty - OF (Blue Jays, 1st Auto only) - 2nd round compensatory pick (78th overall) in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Blue Jays out of LSU. This is the compensaroty pick the Jays received for Robbie Ray declining their qualifying offer in 2021 (who they quickly backfilled with Kevin Gausman).
Doughty has plus intangibles most likely learned from his father and brother who were also baseball players for LSU. Above average hit and power, but is challenged with breaking pitches. Handles balls in the zone, but will extend and chase. Hit 6 home runs in his first 26 pro games post-draft. Defensively doesn’t really standout anywhere and will have to rely on the offense to land him a major league job. Provides chip-in steals in the truest sense of the label as he’s stolen single digit bases every year but never reached double digits.
Doughty looks to have a floor of a utility player/bench bat with the possibility of an everyday role there, but less likely. Everything I look at is like some good, some bad and it’s another hard to balance the scales and rank player. In this case, he’s straddling the Tier None and Tier 3 rankings, but I’ll go with the top half of Tier None as I want to see just a bit more from the positives to outweigh the negatives.
Victor Scott II - OF (Cardinals, 1st Auto only) - 5th round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Cardinals out of the University of West Virginia. Scott has elite speed and easily plays a plus center field defense with that foundational speed.
Currently has average hit and power tools. Showed a decent plate approach with a willingness to take walks and rarely chased outside of the zone in his first run at Single-A post-draft.
The obvious hope is that Scott is a lead off hitter manning center field on a daily basis. However, the most likely outcome is that he is a Tier None fourth outfielder with a chance to get into Tier 3 if he can develop more of an impact bat.
Tres Gonzalez - OF (Pirates, 1st Base and Auto) - 5th round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Pirates out of Georgia Tech. Full name is Eduardo Albert Gonzalez, so my best guess is that either he was the third-born child or he’s really good at copying artwork.
Plus plate approach with a putting the ball in play mindset. Above avereage speed to take advantage of the slap hitter approach. He has fringe power in game given that slappy plate approach.
Pretty standard fourth outfielder profile that lands him in Tier None, even if there is a high likelihood of a major league future with the ability to put the ball in play.
Jared McKenzie - OF (Nationals, 1st Base and Auto) - 5th round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Nationals out of Baylor University. After a strong sophomore campaign in 2021, the Bears center fielder had a tough stint in the Cape Cod Summer League and followed that up with a down 2022 Junior year in Waco.
Taking a look at his small sample of 17 games at Single A looks great initially with a .400 batting average, 11 stolen bases, 15 RBI’s, and 18 runs scored. However, taking a look at a few other things negates a lot of those positive outcomes, mostly a .531 BABIP and a 26% strikeout rate. In almost two thirds of his plate appearances he had a hit or a strikeout, which is not sustainable. Take a guess which one is more likely to go down…
McKenzie was a center fielder in college, but it looks more like he will be playing a corner in the pros, which puts more pressure on his bat to find an everyday role. And at present, it doesn’t look like that everyday role is a high likelihood. The video I watched wasn’t very convincing as I saw him struggle with his quality of contact as well as the swing and miss. Not a player I am overly excited about as there is no standout tool - he’s pretty much average across the board and may struggle to be an everyday outfielder, which lands him in my Tier None.
Clark Elliott - OF (Athletics, 1st Base only) - Competitive Balance Round B (69th overall - nice!) pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Athletics out of the University of Michigan. A strong Cape Cod season leading to an MVP trophy put him on the map for the 2022 MLB Draft leading to a top 100 pick.
Showed a big bump in home runs in his Junior year going from 5 to 16, but I doubt that sticks in the pros. He’s more of a line drive, flat bat path approach hitter that looks to put the ball in play and use his speed on the base paths. Only had one at bat after being drafted, so there is nothing to read into his pro experience currently.
A floor more than ceiling player that should easily reach a fourth outfielder type of role at the MLB level. He can play any of the outfield positions due to his speed and glove although his arm isn’t anything special, so right field is more of a stretch for a full time role. You’re getting hit, speed, and glove and not much else, which caps his ceiling and puts him somewhere between Tier None and Tier 3. For me, I’m just not that interested yet, so I will stick him in Tier None for now.
Joe Lampe - OF (Guardians, 1st Base and Auto) - 3rd round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Guardians out of Arizona State. I assume if your buying his cards, you will be changing your twitter bio to say “I Love Lampe”.
Hit and speed center fielder with average power. Doesn’t strike out, patient and walks almost as much as he strikes out which is actually lower than normal because of the bat to ball skills. Classic Guardians hitter profile.
More than likely a fourth outfielder which will put him into Tier None but he did pop 12 home runs in his final college season. If he can replicate that, he may find an everyday role and creep into Tier 3.
Nick Biddison - OF (Dodgers, 1st Base and Auto) - 4th round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Dodgers out of Virginia Tech. I saw video of Biddison doing Copenhagen Side Planks and now I know why I am not a baseball player. I’m sure that’s the only reason.
Above average hit with just average power tool that can play all over the field including emergency catcher duties. In typical Dodgers fashion, they had Biddison play center field, right field, third base, and first base in his first 33 pro games post-draft.
Utility profile that is great for real baseball but not for the hobby. Add in that he’s already had two shoulder surgeries and that easily lands him in Tier None.
Sean McLain - SS (Dodgers, 1st Base and Auto) - 5th round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Dodgers out of Arizona State University. He’s the middle McLain brother with his older brother Matt the more well known prospect as a 1st round pick of the Reds in 2021 draft. The youngest McLain, Nick, is currently on the Arizona State roster.
Moving on from family tree time - Sean doesn’t have much ceiling with his best asset being his defensive versatility on the dirt as he is able to play short, third, and second base. Has never hit double digit home runs in his college career. While he hit for a high average, it was mostly through being aggressive and putting balls in play. He can get in trouble with swing and miss and his short stint in pro ball was nothing to write home about, hitting below the Mendoza line in 19 games.
If McLain is to get to the MLB level, it will be as a utility player more than likely. There’s a shot he figures out the hit tool, engages his pull-side power against pro pitching, and tones down the swing and miss leading to an everyday role, but that’s a lot of ifs to get him to a hobby relevant profile.
Jake Bennett - LHP (Nationals, 1st Base only) - 2nd round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Nationals out of the University of Oklahoma. Nationals going back to the Cade Cavalli well to get the 6’6” lefty who is from the same high school and college as Cavalli.
Three pitch arsenal - four seam fastball mostly in the low-to-mid 90’s but can touch 98, plus slider, and average changeup. Strike thrower that fills up the zone but the fastball is vulnerable to fastball hunters.
Back-end rotation pitcher with perhaps a bit of upside for more than the typical pitchability lefty. Tier None profile for now but not that far off from a Tier 3 profile low-end mid rotation SP.
Nazier Mulé - RHP (Cubs, 1st Base and Auto) - 4th round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Cubs out of the New Jersey prep ranks. Took almost double slot money to sign him away from a University of Miami commitment.
Announced by the Cubs as a pitcher which is likely the best option for him moving forward, although he was a two way player with some thump in his bat. Triple digit fastball but usually sits mid-90’s, average slider with some potential and a changeup he rarely uses. I did come across one back field video of Mulé in a Cubs uniform taking an at bat back in September, so I suppose it’s still possible he tries the two way option for a bit.
Very raw with plenty of bullpen risk and rumors of makeup concerns give me no confidence in ranking him anywhere but Tier None. I may be the low man in the hobby on Mulé, but I see no reason to invest even with the raw tools and athleticism.
Logan Tanner - C (Reds, 1st Base and Auto) - 2nd round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Reds out of Mississippi State University. He had a breakout campaign in his sophomore season in Starkville and followed it up with a relatively similar season in 2022 although with around just half the bombs from the previous season.
He does everything well, but there’s no standout tool outside of maybe his arm. A solid all around baseball player that has the floor of a backup catcher and could easily find himself as a successful everyday backstop. Tier None player given the lack of a plus hobby tool and position penalty.
Lamar King, Jr. - C (Padres, 1st Base only) - 4th round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Padres out of the Maryland prep ranks. The son of former NFL defensive lineman Lamar King is yet another legacy player from the 2022 MLB Draft in this product.
At 6’3” and 215 pounds, you can see the raw power in the frame and the bat. His swing is geared toward engaging that raw power as well. I did see him struggle against breaking balls as well as heat up in the zone, so reports of hit tool concerns seem to have strong validity to them. I didn’t see any video of him behind the dish, but reports are that he can handle the physical side of the position even with his larger frame.
A Georgia Tech commit that was a bit surprising to see him sign a slot deal to join the Padres org. There is a lot of future development for King to reach an every day backstop ceiling with good pop and enough of a hit tool to keep him from a platoon situation. Even with the obvious future power profile, the current hit tool deficiencies and the catcher penalty make it an easy choice to give him a Tier None ranking. There may be something here with more hobby interest in the future, but it’s likely a long way off.
Ryan Ritter - SS (Rockies, 1st Base and Auto) - 4th round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Rockies out of the University of Kentucky. A glove first shortstop that has a below average hit tool.
Watching Ritter at bats and it gives me the impression of a lack of confidence. Not sure if he should be swinging or not, not sure where the ball is going off the bat, and not barreling the ball for solid contact. There are times when he gets the heater in the zone and you can dream on solid gap power being the norm, but anything outside of the straightball and he was in trouble. On the exact opposite side of the coin, his fielding actions look supremely confident and comfortable. I could go on all day with how impressive he looks covering the left side of the diamond. There is speed there, but it’s more speed getting around the bases rather than stealing bases.
Ritter ended up in theoretically one of the best places for getting a lacking hit tool to a major league passable hit tool with Coors Field as his future home park. At the moment he could probably start on a big league squad if there was a designated fielder position, but for the hobby, this holds very little value outside of the most edge case scenarios like the Wizard of Oz. If the hit tool comes along and he starts showing confidence at the plate, I will start to get more interested. But for now, with the glove being the only real tool of interest which means essentially no hobby interest, I am placing Ritter in Tier None.
Jordan Sprinkle - SS (White Sox, 1st Base and Auto) - 4th round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the White Sox out of the University of California, Santa Barbara. Being a California kid, I really hope Jordan does the Sprinkler as his go-to dance move. However, I feel like California kids may not even know how a sprinkler works any more given our persistent drought. If you wont change your ways to save the planet, at least do it to save one of the greatest dance moves of all time.
Sprinkler has plus speed and the defensive chops to stick at shortstop. He had a down 2022 and profiles as more hit than power with a put-the-ball-in-play approach. If he can recapture the 2021 magic by getting on base at a high clip with a ton of stolen bases and a sprinkling of power, then he looks the part of a future top of the lineup bat.
The defense and speed should lead to a future role at the backend of a roster at the very least but it may just be a bench defensive and speed option. Sprinkle had 27 pro games post-draft with 22 of those at Single-A. That small sample of games looked much like the 2022 season unfortunately. For now that means he’s going in my Tier None until the offensive skill set gets back on track and he starts to look more like his 2021 self.
D’Andre Smith - 2B (Mets, 1st Auto only) - 5th round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Mets out of the University of Southern California (USC). Played shortstop primarily in college and exclusively in his final season in Los Angeles. Fits better at second base and the Mets have played him there for the small sample of games he got in pro ball in 2022.
Shorter player at 5’9” but still manages to have average power, mostly to the pull side, but will put one out to the opposite field occasionally. Battler at the plate that uses his speed on the base paths but doesn’t look to steal many bags.
Smith doesn’t have any standout tools, but doesn’t have too many deficiencies either. Profiles as a bench bat that doesn’t have a ton of hobby relevance outside of being on a highly collectable team. Still isn’t enough to get him out of my Tier None.
Nate Furman - 2B (Guardians, 1st Base and Auto) - 4th round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Guardians out of UNC-Charlotte. Signed for almost $200K underslot
Plus hit tool with that often walks as much as he strikes out. Above average speed, but almost no power in the profile. Top of the lineup bat who regularly walks more than he strikes out.
Another classic Cleveland hitter profile but not much upside. At best a Tier 3 player but with no power at all, it’s hard to get him out of Tier None, which is where I will have him until we are certain he is destined for an everyday job.
Hayden Dunhurst - C (Royals, 1st Base only) - 6th round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Royals out of Ole Miss. When easily half your highlights on social media are of you making plays behind the dish in the SEC, it’s likely there’s a good chance you have a future as an MLB catcher.
Defense first catcher purely based on his elite arm, but the rest of the defensive skills are above average to plus. Only has average hit and power tools that put a cap on any hobby interest.
Dunhurst is a high floor, low ceiling player with a catcher penalty. That penalty pushes him into Tier None as the hobby doesn’t value his skill set, but at most other positions there would be some Tier 3 upside. Unfortunately that just doesn’t happen with catchers.
Silas Ardoin - C (Orioles, 1st Auto only) - 4th round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Orioles out of the University of Texas. One of the best defensive prospects behind the dish, he could easily combine with Adley at some point to lock up that position for years to come in Baltimore.
Has all the tools at the backstop position. An expert framer, quick release times with an above average arm, and has no problems keeping balls in front of him. On the offensive side, his skills are more of what you would expect in a backup catcher with average hit and power. Power is more doubles than homers while the hit tool is geared towards a patient approach taking advantage of fastballs.
A backup catcher profile that should easily make it to the big leagues given the strength of his defensive chops, but likely never gets a full time role on a first division team. Another classic Tier None profile.
Drake Baldwin - C (Braves, 1st Auto only) - 3rd round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Braves out of Missouri State. Searching Drake Baldwin on the twitter app brings up as much Drake and Hailey Baldwin content as it does baseball player Drake Baldwin content. I really need to remember to qualify my searches because I did not want to have to scroll through all of that. My wife, on the other hand, was quite interested in those almost eight year old rumors of Drake and Hailey dating.
Baldwin (the baseball player one) is a hit first catcher that we are still unsure if he will remain behind the dish long term or not. He went from having less than 5 home runs in his first two collegiate seasons to popping 19 in 2022. He’s always shown good plate discipline, regularly walking as much or more than he strikes out. In his first pass through pro ball, the underlying data showed that he was making zone contact at a plus rate, but wasn’t swinging at much, indicating perhaps a bit too passive of an approach. I expect that will evolve as he gets more reps in pro ball.
If Baldwin has to move off of catcher, the pressure on the bat grows and he may not be able to reach an every day role as the offensive skills aren’t yet loud enough. Even if he does stick at catcher, he’s more of a backup catcher than a future starter on a first division roster, which the Braves look to be for the foreseeable future. That puts him in Tier None until we see more from him.
Jack Brannigan - 3B (Pirates, 1st Base and Auto) - 3rd round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Pirates out of Notre Dame. Two way player in South Bend pitching in relief and mostly playing third base, but did get a sprinkle of games across a few other positions.
Given that pitching history, it’s no surprise he shows the arm to be able to stick at third base. He has above average power and chip-in steals type speed. The hit tool is only average with swing and miss/strikeout concerns.
Will need to make more contact to find an every day role and see the power play in game. Given the current profile that looks more like a bench bat/Quad-A hitter. For now, he’s a Tier None player until the hit tool improves or we get another tool getting to a plus level.
Chandler Simpson - SS (Rays, 1st Base and Auto) - Competitive Balance Round B (70th overall) pick in the MLB Draft by the Rays out of Georgia Tech. Stole 55 bases in 51 summer league games, so I am expecting Simpson to blow past Rickey’s record of 138 when he gets a full time MLB job (where’s the sarcasm font, I can’t seem to find it).
Simpson possesses elite speed and takes a plate approach to put the ball in play and use his speed. There is no power and any home run he has hit in his career has been of the inside the park variety (fact not verified, but still a fact). Not going to stick at shortstop even though Georgia Tech gave him more run there than at any time previously in his college career. Likely a second base/outfield future home.
Tier None for now with Tier 3 upside if he can hit enough to find an everyday role and steal a bajillion bases. Is he Terrance Gore or Billy Hamilton? Is there actually much of a difference?
Brandon Birdsell - RHP (Cubs, 1st Auto only) - 5th round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Cubs out of Texas Tech. Big 12 pitcher of the year in his 3rd college stop and a history of arm issues.
Has a 3-4 pitch mix - a mid-90’s riding fastball that he can get up into the high-90’s, a plus Cutter/Slider in the high-80’s, a low-80’s curveball, and he has a changeup but isn’t currently throwing it.
Birdsell was shut down early in 2021 with a shoulder injury and was taken in the 11th round in the 2021 MLB Draft but decided to go back to school to build up his value, which seems to have worked. Given his checkered health, there are definite injury concerns to be wary of. Mid rotation upside, but health concerns push him down into Tier None for me. If he puts together back to back seasons of full health, then I am willing to at the least move him up into Tier 3. The video of him throwing a pitch as soon as a batter taking to long to get in the box was a favorite of mine during this whole write-up process, but it's not enough for me to get him up into Tier 3.
Zach Maxwell - RHP (Reds, 1st Auto only) - 6th round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Reds out of Georgia Tech. Big boy at 6’6” and a soft 275 pounds that can spin it like Jazzy Jeff.
Features a double plus mid-90’s fastball that can touch triple digits and a plus slider in the mid to high 80’s. If he could consistently command either or even both pitches, he would immediately jump a tier and you would be hearing his name a LOT more.
As it stands, he’s likely an unreliable future bullpen arm with tantalizing stuff that will struggle to limit free passes. That’s a Tier None profile, but he’s worth watching to see if he can harden up the body and figure out how to limit walks because his stuff is absolutely lights out.
Dylan Delucia - RHP (Guardians, 1st Auto only) - 6th round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Guardians out of Ole Miss. Made a name for himself in the 2022 College World Series, pitching a nine inning four hit shutout in the CWS semifinals to punch Ole Miss’s ticket to the championship game. As a result, he ended up taking home the Most Outstanding Player (MOP) award. I’m pretty sure the trophy is just a real mop painted gold.
His arsenal is mostly a low-90’s fastball with a hint of arm side run with good metrics. He pairs that with an above average slider and a sprinkling of a changeup.
Delucia is a backend starter or org depth more than anything else given the profile which is a hobby Tier None slot. However, this is worth revisiting after Cleveland fully gets him into their pitching dev machine as they can turn coal into diamonds.
Victor Mederos - RHP (Angels, 1st Auto only) - 6th round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Angels out of Oklahoma State. Mederos is a case of arm talent and big time “stuff” but has yet to show he has the pitching talent to unlock the “stuff”.
Four pitch arsenal with an upper 90’s fastball with arm side run at times, a mid 80’s sweeping slider that gets a lot of called strikes against right handers, a low 80’s curveball that I didn’t see much of, and likewise a low 80’s change up that I didn’t really see either in recent looks. However, I’ve seen him throw the change in previous years and it was tantalizingly good.
The results have not been there at all for Mederos. He’s often too hittable and gives up a lot of walks. If you like seeing WHIP’s north of 1.2, then go check out Mederos’s baseball reference page. There are small sample sequences where I have seen Mederos look like a future ace, so I have to be careful with these profiles as I tend to value stuff more than pitchability. But in this case, it’s too hard to make that leap. I’ll put Mederos in Tier None and be ready to jump on him if he can find the command, pitch sequencing, and approach. I’m not really sure he’ll find that though in the Angels org though, at least not as it is currently constructed.
Trystan Vrieling - RHP (Yankees, 1st Base only) - 3rd round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Yankees out of Gonzaga. Pitched mostly out of the bullpen until 2022 when he got full time run as a starter out in Spokane.
Four pitch mix with a low-to-mid-90’s fastball, slider/cutter in mid to high-80’s with plus spin, high-70’s curveball that likewise shows plus spin as his main whiff pitch, and a changeup that he uses less frequently but can flash.
Vrieling is at his best when he’s filling up the zone, but he was inconsistent as a full time starter. The raw clay is there and with a few more years under his belt of starting in the minors, he could easily emerge as a mid-rotation type of prospect. For now, there’s just not enough for me to get him out of Tier None, even with the Yankees bump.
Kenya Huggins - RHP (Reds, 1st Base and Auto) - 4th round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Reds out of Chipola College. Follows college teammate Cam Collier from Chipola to the Reds minor league system, which is the closest we’ll get to Collier in this product unfortunately.
Three pitch mix with a low-to-mid 90’s fastball, a mid-80’s slider, and a change up in the upper 80’s. Not a ton of video out there, but what I did see was a primarily fastball that was more effective up in the zone and then the slider about a third of the time. I didn’t see any of the changeup being thrown. The command was spotty with the slider mostly being thrown to the glove side of the plate while the fastball was missing spots regularly.
Huggins has a big, thick frame that looks like it could easily handle starter innings, but we really have no insight into the Reds plans for him since he had a grand total of 1 inning post-draft. He looked raw, but also looked like there is good clay to mold. At the moment, it’s a backend starter at best with the odds in favor of a bullpen role. That’s a Tier None ranking with a wait and see mindset for 2023.
Michael Kennedy - LHP (Pirates, 1st Base and Auto) - 4th round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Reds out of the New York prep ranks signed to an overslot deal. Kennedy did not get any pro ball reps after the draft so it’s tough to get a read on how he would fare against professional hitters.
Kennedy features a three pitch arsenal with a low-90’s fastball that has reportedly touched 94. It has some arm-side run and I rarely saw him throw it to the glove side. His slider looked the best of his three pitches when he could control it and lives in the low-80’s with some nice, sweepy break to it. His third pitch is a changeup in the high 70’s but I didn’t see him throw it much. A collection of average to above average pitches that are aided by his arm slot but are held back by his inconsistent control.
If Kennedy can get his fastball velocity to regularly touch mid-90’s with his secondaries getting a similar jump AND his command taking a step forward, he’s definitely in consideration as a Tier 3 pitcher. With the Pirates using the draft capital and overslotting him, there is some argument to be made for it already, but for now I haven’t seen enough to put him there and will stick him in Tier None and watchlist him.
Trey Dombroski III - LHP (Astros, 1st Auto only) - 4th round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Astros out of Monmouth University. The first time I saw his name, I did a double take and asked myself if he was related to current Phillies GM Dave Dombrowski, but Trey is missing the “w”. It’s too bad because the jokes would write themselves with Dave drafting his son and then trading him for a veteran on a huge contract or a bag of peanuts, really anything, so he didn’t have to have any prospect he remotely had a tie to in his org.
Dombroski is a pitchability lefty with plus command, especially of the fastball. He rarely if ever walks anyone, and the start I watched he didn’t give up a single free pass. The fastball sits in the high 80’s to low 90’s and he easily places on the edges to either side of the plate. He’ll get in trouble though if he leaves it anywhere in the middle of the zone. His secondaries are all average-ish with a curveball and slider each in the mid-70’s as well as a changeup that he threw infrequently in my watch of him.
This is a backend starter Tier None profile all day long unless we see a significant velocity jump. If not, you’re hoping he hits that outlier ceiling comp of Kyle Hendricks, which, given Dombroski’s ability to command the ball, may not be so far-fetched of a comp.
Henry Williams - RHP (Padres, 1st Base and Auto) - 3rd round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Padres out of Duke University. At 6’5”, he’s got an athletic starting pitcher frame that you can dream on. And dream you will have to, as he’s thrown less than 40 innings across his college career due to arm issues throughout and having to go under the knife for Tommy John prior to his final season in Durham.
He features a tantalizing three pitch arsenal with high end spin across the group. A low to mid 90’s high spin fastball with some arm side run, a low to mid 80’s two plane slider, and a mid-80’s changeup that is also high spin, which is typically not ideal but the movement on it makes it work. He’s also got a darn solid noggin.
The Padres are unpredictable when it comes to prospects (some might say they actually don’t want any prospects), and taking two pitchers with recent Tommy John surgery in their first four picks certainly adds to that characterization. Williams is a super high risk, high reward prospect given his lack of innings and arm injury history. It will be a while before we truly have any clue of where Williams will end up, so from a hobby perspective I am going to stick him in Tier None until further notice.
Hunter Patteson - LHP (Royals, 1st Auto only) - 5th round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Royals out of Central Florida. Just another in a long line of college pitchers getting injured in-season and having to get Tommy John surgery.
Patteson has three pitches led by a mid-90’s fastball that ticked up from previous seasons where he was more in the low-90’s. His secondaries are a slider and a changeup, which also found more effectiveness in 2022 than in years previous.
Patteson had shifted between a bullpen and starting role in previous years, but was finally getting a full time starting role. Has a good starter frame at 6’4” and 195 pounds. Arsenal was starting to move from nothing special to a plus trio of pitches. Definitely an arrow up type pitcher prior to going under the knife and would have been in consideration for Tier 3. With the injury and lack of starter innings to judge his results and repertoire, he’s a Tier None pitcher for now.
Michael Knorr - RHP (Astros, 1st Base only) - 3rd round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Astros out of Coastal Carolina University. Knorr transferred from Cal State Fullerton for his final collegiate season and in that cross country trip he picked up fastball velocity that turned him from what was a likely undrafted free agent to a third round pick.
The Astros sat Knorr down after the draft, so 2023 will end up being his pro debut. As mentioned, his fastball went from the low 90’s to more mid 90’s and touching 98. At times there is some small arm side run, but I’ve also seen it with very little movement at all. He throws three secondaries, a slow-looping curveball, tight slider, and a solid changeup.
He cleaned up his delivery at Coastal Carolina and it has led to all of his pitches getting to an average/above average level with good command. There is now a real shot that Knorr makes it as a backend rotation piece, especially given the strong record of the Astros pitching development. However, there isn’t much more ceiling at the moment which will keep him in Tier None.
Pete Hansen - LHP (Cardinals, 1st Base only*) - 3rd round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Cardinals out of the University of Texas.
Had a precipitous drop in fastball velocity in 2021 into the mid-80’s, but was able to get that back up to the high-80’s to low-90’s in 2022. That kind of velocity fluctuation has me a bit worried about arm health, and the Cardinals sat him down after he was drafted for the remainder of 2022. Has a plus, sweepy slider that he uses as his whiff/out pitch. Will throw a changeup as well as curveball, both average pitches.
Pitchability lefty with plus command and fringe fastball velocity. Likely a backend starter, not much ceiling. At best he’s a Tier 3 pitcher, but easily slot him into Tier None until we see velocity gains or some other intriguing developments.
*Topps lists Hansen as only having 1st base cards even though he posted autographed cards to his social media. This may be a Topps omission on the checklist or for whatever reason Topps decided not to include them in the product.
Tyler Schweitzer - LHP (White Sox, 1st Auto only) - 5th round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the White Sox out of Ball State. I should really have a go-to joke for any player coming out of Ball State because the possibilities seem endless. It’s on the tip of my tongue, but it’s just not coming to me.
Has a three pitch mix with an average low-90’s fastball, an above average curveball in the high-70’s, and an average low-80’s changeup. I really liked what I saw from the curveball as a bit of a strike stealer, and in general there was pretty good command. But there wasn’t a ton of swing and miss being generated from what I saw and it was more called strikes on the edges or stealing them with the curveball.
Pitchability lefty that profiles as a back-end starter/org rotation depth. If he gets a few more miles added to the fastball, it would make it a more realistic SP4/SP5 type. Even then, he’s still a Tier None player for the hobby.
Brycen Mautz - LHP (Cardinals, 1st Base only) - 2nd round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Cardinals out of the University of San Diego.
Was mostly a reliever that converted to a full time starter in 2022. Has a three pitch mix with a fastball in the 92-94 range, a low 80’s slider that is his main whiff generator, and a lesser used, inconsistent mid-80’s changeup. All three are average to above average pitches and there is some effort involved that leads to some bullpen risk.
There is a lot of bullpen risk and that’s where he was most frequently prior to the 2022 college season. The Cardinals likely will give him a shot to become a back-end starter with the fallback plan of putting him in the bullpen. Either way he is a Tier None pitcher.
Troy Melton - RHP (Tigers, 1st Base and Auto) - 4th round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Tigers out of San Diego State University.
Three pitch mix of a low-to-mid 90’s fastball, mid-80’s slider, and high-80’s changeup. No pitch is plus, looks to limit hard contact and walks as none of these are big strikeout pitches.
As he has already shown improvements to his stuff in the past year, there is hope he will make it as a back-end starter. If not, then it’s likely a low leverage reliever or org depth. Either way, we are looking at a Tier None rank.
William Kempner - RHP (Giants, 1st Base only) - 3rd round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Giants out of Gonzaga. If you want to see what an uncomfortable at bat looks like, search out some William Kempner footage from behind the hitter. I’m pretty sure I would flail at best and more likely dive out of the way of pitches that end up as strikes if I was to ever take an at bat against him.
He is all about the deception, almost sidearm style delivery with come crossfire motion. That sets up a plus fastball that lives in the mid-90s but can get up to the high 90’s. It will also show different characteristics - I saw some flat and straight heaters while at other times saw some with scary arm side run (seriously, it’s a big nope from me hitting from the right side). A tight slider and a changeup are average to above average, and in the video I watched, it was mostly the slider as his main secondary weapon. When he commanded it, the pitch was very effective and batters were basically frozen on it.
The command is the main thing holding Kempner back from projection as a future starter. He looks the part of a high leverage reliever that a dev org like the Giants should be able to get the most out of. As much as I was impressed with his stuff, that type of delivery is just hard to consistently nail and that is likely why the command suffers at times. If Kempner finds command and his slider is one of the main beneficiaries, then we can start to think there may be a future starting role and consider him for Tier 3. As a back-end reliever currently being the most likely outcome, he ends up in Tier None.
Blake Burkhalter - RHP (Braves, 1st Base and Auto) - 2nd round compensatory pick (76th overall) in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Braves out of Auburn University. Signed for $200K under slot that helped the Braves attack prep pitching early with other selections
Three pitch arsenal, but it’s primarily a four seam fastball in the mid to high 90’s and a slider/cutter in the low 90’s. The cutter gets a fair amount of whiffs and lives in the middle to the glove side of the plate which works better against right-handers. Third pitch is an average changeup in the mid-80’s that I didn’t see much of and felt underdeveloped with his location.
Pure reliever that could find some high leverage opportunities given his experience and repertoire, but the ceiling is at best Tier 3. As we only really saw success in his final season of college ball, I’m not ready to give him that ceiling rank and will start him with most relievers in Tier None.
Dylan Ray - RHP (Diamondbacks, 1st Base only) - 4th round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Diamondbacks out of the University of Alabama. Had to get Tommy John surgery after getting on campus in his freshman season before throwing a pitch in anger in 2020. Came back in 2022 as a bullpen arm that had some high leverage innings once he got his feet underneath him.
Primarily a two pitch pitcher since he’s come back with a low to mid-90’s four seam fastball and will differentiate it with a two-seamer at times. He’ll throw a curveball, slider, and changeup with the looping curveball being the best of the bunch and the changeup being only rarely used. Curveball is his best pitch at the moment.
A bullpen arm coming off of TJ isn’t really something you should be interested in from a hobby perspective. And don’t be fooled by the starts he’s made since he joined the Diamondbacks - they’ve all been short stints at the beginning of games to make sure he was properly warmed up for arm health purposes. I don’t envision him being tried out as a starter as none of those outings were more than 40 pitches. A Tier None bullpen arm until further notice.
Steven Zobac - RHP (Royals, 1st Base and Auto) - 4th round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Royals out of the University of California, Berkeley. Two way player in college but almost exclusively focused on pitching in his final season on campus.
Zobac split time between starting and relieving. Two pitch mix with a low-to-mid 90’s fastball and low-to-mid 80’s slider. Both pitches have above average effectiveness with the slider being the whiff driver. If he is to go down the starter path, he would likely need to develop a third pitch.
Stuff plays up in bullpen role and that is likely his MLB future. Didn’t play at all post-draft, so we don’t have great clarity on the Royals plan for his role but it’s an easy decision to slot him into Tier None until further notice.
Alex McFarlane - RHP (Phillies, 1st Base and Auto) - 4th round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Phillies out of the University of Miami.
Started a handful of games in college and on the Cape, but primarily used out of the bullpen. Three quarters delivery with a high spin mid-90’s fastball that will show arm-side run, equally high spin mid-80’s slider, and a swing and miss changeup. All three of his pitches are quality that are held down by his fringe command.
Pitchers with raw stuff but are held back by command issues often end up in the bullpen, which is where he was most of the time in college. I would be surprised if the Phillies bucked that trend. Poor command also doesn’t lend itself to high leverage roles, so this is an easy Tier None decision. If he does find his command, he becomes a lot more interesting either in the pen or in a starter’s role.
Tyler Stuart - RHP (Mets, 1st Auto only) - 6th round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Mets out of Southern Mississippi. 6’9” pitchers don’t grow on trees, but somehow we have a forest in this product. I assume the definition of a forest is more than one tree, but I don’t have time to look that up, so we’ll just go with it.
Stuart throws a mid-90’s fastball with some arm-side run to it and can get it up to 98. His two secondaries are a mid-80’s changeup and a low-80’s slider. Both pitches are reportedly average, but to be honest, any video I watched was Stuart almost exclusively throwing the heater.
Stuart was a bullpen arm that would come in later in games, often throwing multi-inning efforts and pitching on back to back days. With his stature, he has the potential for being an innings eater out of the bullpen, which is a useful role from a baseball perspective, but ticks zero hobby boxes. A Tier None bullpen arm.
Jared Poland - RHP (Marlins, 1st Auto only) - 6th round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Marlins out of the University of Louisville. Played some second base while at Louisville, but has focused more on pitching in the last few years and will go that route in pro ball.
Has a three pitch arsenal with a low to mid-90’s fastball, a low-80’s curveball, and a high-80’s changeup with a bit of arm-side fade. All pitches seem to be about average and the fastball looked especially vulnerable. Hitters looked to be sitting on it and would smash it after they got the timing down.
Poland looks like a multi-inning reliever or possibly an org depth emergency starter type which is Tier None all day long. I’m pretty sure that we would give the same profile to the country Poland as well when we get around to doing our yearly scouting evals on countries of the world.
Trevor Martin - RHP (Rays, 1st Base and Auto) - 3rd round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Rays out of Oklahoma State.
Has three pitches in his arsenal mid-90’s fastball that tops out at 98, inconsistent power slider, fringe changeup reliever with innings eating capability. Mostly saw him just using a two pitch mix of fastball and slider.
Feels a bit like a match made in heaven as the Rays can use Martin as an opener, follower, spot starter, and long man out of the pen. Tier none reliever that the Rays will likely get the most out of but doesn’t have much hobby interest.
Mason Barnett - RHP (Royals, 1st Base and Auto) - 3rd round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Royals out of the University of Auburn.
Four pitch mix with a two above average pitches - a fastball in the mid-90’s and a sweepy slider in the low-80’s. Fringe to average curveball and changeup complete the mix. Command has never been a strong suit and Barnett usually didn’t get a long leash as a starter.
Barnett looks to be more of a swingman that will lean on his fastball/slider combo. In the short stint post-draft, the Royals didn’t have him go more than three innings, with almost all in the mid to late innings out of the bullpen. A low leverage bullpen arm is an easy Tier None rank.
Michael Prosecky - LHP (Rockies, 1st Auto only potentially*) - While Prosecky showed off 2022 Bowman Draft cards that he autographed on social media, Topps does not list him in the checklist. I have included a writeup on him in the scenario where Topps mistakenly omitted him from their checklist (which is known to happen).
6th round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Rockies out of the University of Louisville. Prosecky moved full time into the pen as a high leverage reliever for Louisville in 2022 which led to increased velocity, strikeouts, and an elevated draft stock.
Throws a mid 90’s fastball with plus movement and an above average mid-70’s curveball. Has a little-used changeup as his third pitch. Biggest concern is his below average command, which likely keeps him in the pen.
Any pitcher in the Rockies organization almost always has a lower ceiling than in any other org simply due to their home park and proven lack of developmental track record. Add in the bullpen negative as well as command issues and this is an easy Tier None decision.
Not Quite The Main Attraction
This product is exclusively focused on prospects. You won't find any rookies or vets in this product. However, not all prospect hobby cards are created equal. There will be some really good prospects in the product (mostly base, inserts, and insert autos) that won't have 1st Bowman logos and thus won't be as desirable even given their talent and/or hobby interest. Players like Jordan Lawlar, Colton Cowser, Marcelo Mayer, Cristian Hernandez, Oscar Colas, Elly De La Cruz, Zac Veen, Benny Montgomery, Ezequiel Tovar, Kahlil Watson, Jackson Chourio, Anthony Volpe, Henry Davis, Samuel Zavala, Marco Luciano, Harry Ford, Jordan Walker, Brady House, Robert Hassell, James Wood, and more. Plenty of great prospects to chase whose cards in this products won’t have as much value as you would expect given the lack of the 1st Bowman logo.
Final Thoughts
Year after year, the Bowman Draft checklist contains a ton of great prospects to dream on, and this year is no different. It’s easy to forget just how deep Bowman Draft is every year and how it gives you the opportunity to hit on so many players.
The negatives are nothing new either - a huge checklist full of less than desirable prospects from a hobby perspective and an ever increasing print run, watering down anyone trying to get some form of monetary returns on opening sealed products either personally or through breaks.
As long as you have eyes wide open to the negatives and are opening Bowman Draft for fun, for profit, or for your personal collection, then it’s another good year of Bowman Draft similar to years past. Hopefully this product preview focused on the 1st Bowman players can help you along the way.