First, some housekeeping items. The 2023 MLB Draft will take place from July 9 through July 11 during All-Star festivities in Seattle, Washington. This crop of talent looks strong with college bats and college pitching likely dominating the headlines leading up to the event.
The 2021 and 2022 MLB Drafts were both a bit prep-heavy at the top featuring five and four preps in the Top 10 picks respectively. It was high school shortstops galore. Early projections point to 2023 being a bit heavier on the college side; generally a good sign for the health of a draft class historically speaking.
While we’re ten months out from the event, it does feel as though there are comfortably three specific players being mentioned by evaluators as the primo guys. LSU outfielder Dylan Crews has been a star since high school and most expect him to be a fixture inside the top five for the next calendar year. A 5-tool player, Crews does a little bit of everything very well and has the chance to be a difference maker in a lineup for the next decade. The top arm on the board is pretty clearly Tennessee righty Chase Dollander. A star in the SEC in 2022, Dollander has huge swing-and-miss stuff with three above-average-or-better pitches and significant projection remaining. The best prep on available in 2023 is pretty clearly Franklin Community (In.) outfielder Max Clark. He draws comparisons to Jarred Kelenic in terms of his physicality and feel for hit at this stage. Clark is another 5-tool profile with substantial upside ahead of him.
2023 will be the first year the draft lottery takes effect with a Winter Meetings drawing for the top six picks sure to capture baseball fans’ attention during cold weather months. 18 teams have the potential to land the No. 1 overall pick with the three worst records having the most-likely odds of landing the pick. Those three teams will each have a 16.5 percent chance of landing that “honor”.
It’s important to note the Los Angeles Dodgers and the New York Mets are not included in this mock as both of their first round picks are expected to be knocked down ten spots as both are expected to exceed the luxury tax by more than $40 million in 2023.
For this mock, we’re running a RANDOM simulation to determine the top six picks since nobody will truly know the order until December 6. Standings are as of September 6, 2022. Here was the outcome:
1. Kansas City Royals
Dylan Crews, Outfield, LSU
The No. 1 pick, for our money, at this stage, comes down to Crews and Tennessee righty Chase Dollander. It really depends on your what your favorite flavored philosophy is. Dollander projects a top-of-the-rotation horse, though Crews has the potential to be a middle-of-the-order slugger with the potential to play a plus right field. In this case, we’re taking the 5-tool guy that can play every single day. Crews has the pedigree to move quickly through the Royals system and could handle right field for the better part of a decade in KC.
2. Detroit Tigers
Max Clark, Outfield, Franklin Community
While Dollander seems to be the slam dunk here, Detroit is going through a rediscovery of exactly who and what they are in terms of talent evaluation and organizational philosophy. The rebuild hasn’t gone as they hoped, and they were burned leaning so hard on developing pitching. That’s not to say it’s the wrong approach, but we think it might be enough to push them in the direction of a super high-profile prep, or potentially a college bat like Florida outfielder Wyatt Langford or Ole Miss shortstop Jacob Gonzalez. In this scenario, we’ve got them grabbing Clark who projects to play a plus centerfield and hit for plenty of average.
3. Pittsburgh Pirates
Jacob Gonzalez, Shortstop, Ole Miss
The Pirates have picked inside the Top 7 picks each of the last three summers and all signs point toward that happening again. Pittsburgh and General Manager Ben Cherington have gone hard after hit tools in recent history, targeting players with high contact rates and impact at the plate. Gonzalez fits that mold beautifully with an 87 percent contact rate in 2022, coupled with above average-to-plus exit velocities. He’s an average shortstop now, though he may outgrow the position. That said, he’s more than athletic enough to stay on the dirt. Gonzalez is one of the rare prospects with a high floor and an intriguing blend of upside and up-the-middle value.
4. Minnesota Twins
Wyatt Langford, Outfield, Florida
Minnesota has 1-in-142 odds to land the No. 4 overall pick, so this would be an absolutely massive coup for the Twins. Again, if we were making this pick, Dollander would be the guy, but Minnesota’s affinity for college sluggers is simply too hard to ignore. Brooks Lee in 2022 was a bit of a variation, but still a bat-first guy with power and a high floor. Langford has the chance to play an average centerfield or a solid average corner with plus power and the upside of a guy who hits 25-30 homers if he can up his contact rates a bit in 2023.
5. Cincinnati Reds
Chase Dollander, RHP, Tennessee
Not only is Dollander the cream of the crop in terms of college pitching this spring, he’s a metric-darling with unicorn traits that can be extremely tough to find. He checks a lot of boxes. Projection, production, performance and unique data. Dollander has a shot at becoming a frontline starter at the next level with an upper-90s fastball and a plus to double-plus slider. He mixes in an above average changeup that has been un-hittable for lefty bats. If he can repeat his 2022 in the SEC next season, he’s got 1.1 upside.
6. Oakland Athletics
Walker Jenkins, Outfield, South Brunswick
Oakland would see this a tough blow considering they have as good as shot as any team to land the No. 1 overall pick, but them’s the breaks, man. The Athletics probably end up taking the best player on the board here regardless of position or age considering the current stage in their rebuild. Jenkins might have the most impactful bat of any prep in the 2023 draft with plus power and a plus hit tool. He’s had some bumps and bruises and a balky hip in recent years, so proving his durability will be an emphasis this spring. Should he play hitch and hiccup-free, Jenkins is a darkhorse to go No. 1 overall as he’s looked like a bluechip, organization-changer when healthy.
7. Washington Nationals
Jacob Wilson, Infield, Grand Canyon
If the Athletics are disappointed with the No. 6 overall pick, the Nationals would be downright upset over this outcome. The three-worst teams each have an 81 percent chance of landing a pick in the top six. Getting the seventh pick would sting. Still, a lot of good players in this class and Wilson is one of them. The Nationals are absolutely loaded and Wilson would be the cherry on top. This is probably the best hit tool in the class with absurd contact rates and fringy power that he gets to with an efficient swing plane. Wilson has a shot to play shortstop, but could shift to left field or second base as a pro. An infield featuring Wilson, Brady House and CJ Abrams would be awfully fun.
8. Miami Marlins
Enrique Bradfield, Outfield, Vanderbilt
The Marlins have seemingly rotated a million different names in and out of centerfield at loanDepot park over the past three seasons, a trend that needs to change. Bradfield brings a plus hit tool and 80-grade, elite speed that can be a difference maker, a dynamic tool all over the field. Bradfield brings athletic impact to the Marlins organization not seen since Dee Gordon, tacked onto game-changing defense in centerfield. He may never hit double-digit homers, but neither did Kenny Lofton. The Marlins could use some contact skills at the top of their lineup and Bradfield has a chance to be the first draftee to see the big leagues, potentially as early as late-2024.
9. Chicago Cubs
Rhett Lowder, RHP, Wake Forest
The Cubbies went off the board with Oklahoma righty Cade Horton in 2022, their third college arm in the last four drafts. There’s a lot of good college arms in this class and Lowder may be the best of the lot. Up to 97 with a plus, maybe better, changeup. Lowder has creative ways to get batters of both handedness out. His slider is solid average, maybe a tick better right now, but he’s got a whippy, athletic operation on the mound and some evaluators think there’s more in the tank coming. Lowder would join a future rotation featuring Jordan Wicks, and Horton, a potential nasty three-headed monster, each of whom bring a different look and style to the bump.
10. Colorado Rockies
Arjun Nimmala, Shortstop, Strawberry Crest
There isn’t a player that definitively has the look and style of a Rockies pick here, but they appreciate bat speed, impact and athleticism, something Nimmala has in spades. Nimmala’s athletic testing and in-game performances this summer have really opened eyes. He’s a lanky infielder who could grow off the shortstop position, but it might not matter if he’s the impact bat some now project. Nimmala has super quick hands and a strong arm, with athletic actions on the dirt. He could end up at any infield position or in the outfield. He’ll be just 17 at the time of the draft, so models love him.
11. Texas Rangers
Hurston Waldrep, RHP, Florida
Waldrep, a transfer from Southern Miss, is a bulldog on the mound with an intimidating presence and the pure stuff to back it up. It’s a double-plus fastball, up to 98 with big ride and significant bat-missing qualities. He offers a mid-80s slider with two-plane break and tunnel that’s given righties fits. There’s a solid average changeup in there too, though he’s yet to really unleash it with much regularity. Waldrep shares a lot of similarities with Jack Leiter, the Rangers 2021 first rounder. The frame, the fastball, the projection and intensity; it’s all there. The Rangers are in a win-now mode, so combining Waldrep with Leiter, as well as 2022 first rounder Kumar Rocker in the very near future makes for a pretty intimidating rotation.
12. Los Angeles Angels
Noble Meyer, RHP, Jesuit
The Angels are a bit of a wildcard in the 2023 MLB Draft. The team is currently for sale and nobody really knows the marching orders General Manager Perry Minasian will be given in year one with new brass. It’s clear he’s been trying to force a winner as quickly as possible since he’s arrived, but that approach may change with Shohei Ohtani potentially on the move following the 2023 season. If that happens a retooling of sorts may be in order. Meyer is potentially the most talented high school arm in the 2023 class with a fastball up to 100, a mid-80s slider and he can flash an above average changeup. It’s a premium body with a buttery, athletic operation. Some scouts question the fastball quality and its ability to miss bats, but a lower release and an inconsistent command plan suggest there’s some low-hanging fruit to improve it’s performance,
13. Arizona Diamondbacks
Kevin McGonigle, Infield, Monsignor Bonner
The Diamondbacks have been no stranger to high upside preps and selecting in the thirteen slot should provide them some intriguing options. McGonigle arguably has the best present hit tool and polish in the class with a second base future profile. He’s a twitchy kid with remarkable barrel control and the ability to impact the game in every facet.
14. San Francisco Giants
Paul Skenes, RHP/1B, LSU
The Giants put so much stock into leadership qualities, makeup and attitude. It may not get any better than Skenes. A transfer out of Air Force, Skenes is an explosive righty with an upper-90s fastball and a hard, mid-80s slider that can induce a ton of whiffs. He mixes in a fringier cutter and a changeup, both of which has proven to be potential future weapons. Skenes has a premium body and big athleticism with more projection ahead of him. He’s been a dynamo on offense for the past few seasons as well, though most believe he’s a future mid-rotation horse.
15. Boston Red Sox
Eric Bitonti, Infield, Aquinas
The Red Sox have gone so incredibly heavy on California prep shortstops in recent years that, at this point, it’s almost impossible to ignore. Bitonti is more of a power-first infielder with tremendous bat-speed. He may end up at third base or in left field, but you’re buying the bat here. Bitonti will be just 17 years old on draft day, so models will continue to value him very highly.
16. Chicago White Sox
Thomas White, LHP, Phillips Academy
White has been reasonably famous in this class for quite some time. It’s an ultra-premium body with mid-90s velocity coming from the left side. White has a ton of deceptive qualities in his delivery, and a short-arm mid three-quarters delivery that makes it incredibly tough for hitters to pick up his stuff. It’s not all too dissimilar to Noah Schultz, the White Sox 2021 first round pick. This would be quite the two-headed monster in a future Chicago rotation.
17. Baltimore Orioles
Brayden Taylor, Infield, TCU
The Orioles have dropkicked open a competitive window that the Baltimore faithful should be awfully excited about. They’ve got prospects or full-time fixtures at virtually every position, so the team has the luxury of grabbing the best player that fits their models. Taylor checks a lot of boxes. He makes a ton of contact and flashes average power with the versatility to play anywhere on the field. Taylor is one of the most decorated players in college baseball at handling high velocity. He could move quick.
18. Milwaukee Brewers
Travis Honeyman, Outfield, Boston College
The Brewers have gone almost exclusively in the direction of draft college bats in recent drafts and they’ll have quite a crop to pick from here if they repeat that approach. Honeyman had a massive 2022 at school and followed that up by impressing on the Cape, an impressive acclaim in a down year offensively out there. Honeyman can handle any of the three outfield position, but there are plenty of evaluators who believe he’s a future plus defensive centerfielder. The bat projects above average as well.
19. San Diego Padres
Charlee Soto, RHP, Reborn Christian
The Padres and limitless upside guys seem like a match made in heaven. Soto might have the most impressive arm talent in the 2023 class, up to 97 with elite athleticism. He features a plus changeup and a slider that is rapidly becoming a weapon. Soto also checks the model box, being just 17 years old on draft day. This pairing feels like a slam dunk.
20. Philadelphia Phillies
Aidan Miller, 3B, JW Mitchell
Miller is a physical freak with tremendous bat speed and the potential for future double-plus power at his peak. Some have compared the entire profile to an Austin Riley type of performer with a tick better defense at the hor corner. Miller has really begun answering questions on the future hit tool this past summer and has seen his stock surge up draft boards following every showcase/tournament.
21. Toronto Blue Jays
Ross Dunn, LHP, Arizona State
The Blue Jays have been all over the map in recent drafts. 2022 was a prep-heavy experience so maybe they go back to the college well in 2023. Dunn figures to headline the Sun Devils weekend rotation in 2023 following his transfer out of Florida State. He’s been up to 96 with a deceptive fastball and a gnarly slider that tunnels his heat very well. This is where a run on college arms could really begin.
22. Seattle Mariners
Will Sanders, RHP, South Carolina
Sanders has a lot of fans in the industry with a long, projectable frame and the athleticism and arm-speed to suggest there’s a lot more coming. To date, Sanders features a mid-90s fastball, up to 97 with inconsistent shape. He’s got a firm, two-plane slider that’s been his primary weapon, as well as fantastic feel for a changeup that he’s comfortable throwing to both sides of the plate. Weaponizing his fastball will be the next frontier in his development. If he can achieve that, Sanders could be off the board way earlier than this.
23. Cleveland Guardians
Tanner Witt, RHP, Texas
It’s unlikely Witt will pitch for the Longhorns in 2022, but it might not matter. He was fantastic in 2022 before going down with a torn UCL and undergoing Tommy John. Witt has been up to 99 with a massive curveball and a fringier changeup. He’s got a big, long, premium body with a lot of projection ahead of him.
24. Tampa Bay Rays
Cade Kuehler, RHP, Campbell
Kuehler has tremendous arm talent, up to 99 with significant hop on his heater. He features a nasty slider and a changeup that both have proven to induce swing-and-miss. His ability to throw more strikes and get ahead of hitters will be important in his development as a starter, but at worst this is a high-leverage arm that the Rays can lean on in the future.
25. St. Louis Cardinals
Tommy Troy, IF/OF, Stanford
After a big 2022 campaign with the Cardinal, Troy turned into a different animal this past summer on the Cape, crushing baseball and showcasing his raw power. He’s an extremely versatile player who can play anywhere on the diamond. His tools are mostly average across the board; a sum of his parts type of guy. This is the type of player the Cardinals have maximized in recent years.
26. Atlanta Braves
Teddy McGraw, RHP, Wake Forest
McGraw features the best sinker at the top of the 2023 class with extreme boring action into right-handed bats. He’s dabbled with a four-seamer as well, a move that might behoove his future production given his low-release. McGraw has a high-spin slider that’s peaked north of 3000 rpm too. There’s also feel for an average changeup in this profile. McGraw needs to miss more bats in 2023, but he’s got the pure stuff to go much higher than this.
27. New York Yankees
Jack Hurley, OF, Virginia Tech
Hurley is a five-tool type of guy, though none of his tools are specifically loud. He does everything well and he’s been a consistent performer inside a powerhouse lineup for two years now. Hurley has the ability to handle centerfield, but may be better suited for left field where his throwing arm won’t be challenged quite as much. Hurley’s got a good shot at being a solid big league regular who can contribute in a number of ways and become a staple at the top of a lineup for a decade.
28. Houston Astros
Brock Wilken, Third Base, Wake Forest
Wilken has some swing-and-miss presently in his game, and that will need to be cleaned up if he’s to go this early in the draft, but it’s hard to ignore the outlandish power Wilken produces. He projects a future average defender at third base with an above average arm too. This is a potential middle-of-the-lineup thumper with 30 homer power if it all clicks.
29. Seattle Mariners
Roch Cholowsky, SS, Hamilton
There’s a lot of presumptions taking place with this pick. First, the Dodgers and Mets are both expected to see their first rounders fall ten spots due to luxury tax overages. Second, this is assuming Julio Rodriguez wins Rookie of the Year, thus awarding the Mariners a second first-round pick. Of note, the Orioles would not be eligible for this compensation if Adley Rutschman wins the award, so we’ll roll with it for Seattle to have a little fun. Seattle has had a lot of fun with prep shortstops in recent years. Cholowsky might have the best glove of the bunch and the bloodlines teams are drawn to of late. The bat may only be average, but Roch will definitely stay up the middle of the field.