Alright, so let’s go over narratives and storylines of this class before diving in with full vigor. The 2022 class is more bloodline-heavy than any class I can ever remember. The sons of Carl Crawford, Andruw Jones and Matt Holliday loom large at the top. A partial byproduct of that talent could result in three prep hitters going top three; a rarity in drafts of late.
Another thing to take notice in this class is just how deep the college hitters are. It figures to be a healthy representation for that demographic this year much to the appeasement of scouts after an anemic 2021 crop. College outfielders make out the majority of the stock with seven going in the first round in this mock.
That said, this class lacks a college pitcher at the top to headline the class. In fact, we do not have a college pitcher getting selected in the top ten. Further the lack of pitching, this could be just the third time in 57 years that a pitcher isn’t drafted in the top five picks at all. Hell, we don’t have any pitchers selected in the top ten. Not college, not preps either. It’s a good year if you’re a guy who swings the twig. The mystery man of this class may be Oklahoma righty Cade Horton. He’s got heat in the Top 10, but may eventually carry too much risk to go quite that high. Outside of Horton, there’s may end up being immense value with some of the injured arms.
So what happens with injured arms? It’s been an especially busy year for Dr. James Andrews. This class features some prominent names on the elbow mend. Connor Prielipp, Dylan Lesko, Peyton Pallette, Reggie Crawford, Hunter Barco… the list goes on. And then you have Carson Whisenhunt who was suspended for steroids… Kumar Rocker who mysteriously disappeared after going unsigned by the Mets in 2021. He did, however, jump back onto the mound this past weekend to showcase for teams for Try-City. It went unbelievably well and the climb for Rocker has begun. And what do you make or Blade Tidwell who missed a large portion of the season with shoulder tenderness? It’s all so very complicated, okay?
But hey, here’s the mock. A lot of sourcing went into this one as information and opinions are starting to trickle out of front offices. You should have supreme confidence in this iteration as I bet it will get three or even four correct on July 17…
But in all seriousness, teams are starting to be attached to different players and that’s exciting. Not only is the first round sourced information, but there are certainly a bucket of names in the round two that have been heavily connected to their teams as well. 6 weeks to go until Baltimore is on the clock…
1. Baltimore Orioles
Termarr Johnson, Infielder, Mays
I’ve gone back and forth on this pick for the last 24 hours but, ultimately, I think Baltimore likes Johnson enough to take him here, whilst also recognizing he may be able to save them the most money here too. It still feels to me like Lee is option no. 2. At this stage, personally, I’d be surprised if Wesleyan OF Druw Jones is in play.
2. Arizona Diamondbacks
Druw Jones, Outfield, Wesleyan
It’s been almost exclusively Jones and Stillwater shortstop Jackson Holliday here. If Jones is still on the board, I have to imagine Arizona is all over it so long as the money is entirely prohibitive. Is Jones positioning himself with a massive bonus ask? Does drafting Jones diminish what Arizona can do later in the draft? Time will tell. What we do know is Jones spent several days with Arizona over the last week. Curious.
3. Texas Rangers
Jackson Holliday, Shortstop, Stillwater
I think the Rangers like a lot of college bats in this class, but Holliday slipping past this pick might lead him to fall all the way to 7 or 8. I just can’t imagine that happening. Chris Young is a rather risk-averse evaluator, so Georgia Tech C Kevin Parada and Lee really make a ton of sense in this spot too. At the end of the day, we think Texas jumps at the opportunity to land a really impressive player in Holliday. This is the ceiling for Kumar Rocker…
4. Pittsburgh Pirates
Zach Neto, Shortstop, Campbell
We thought this would be Collier for the longest time, but Neto spent a couple days last week doing some private workouts and meet-and-greets with the folks in Pittsburgh, pulling our prediction in another direction. Sure, that could have been the Pirates just covering all their bases, but we’ll follow the crumbs. Johnson is likely plan B here and, between the two of them, it could come down to who will take a bigger discount.
5. Washington Nationals
Kevin Parada, Catcher, Georgia Tech
The Nationals like LSU 1B Jacob Berry a good bit, and have been attached to IMG outfielder Elijah Green with this pick, but more and more they’re attached to Parada and we believe that’s the route GM Mike Rizzo goes. If Parada comes off the board early, expect Berry to be option 1b. Baseball America’s Carlos Collazo opined that if the team is indeed looking to trade star outfielder Juan Soto, would they instead look for their next superstar in Green instead of going the college route? Something to consider, no doubt.
6. Miami Marlins
Jacob Berry, First Base/Outfield, LSU
There’s been a quite a shake-up in the Marlins front office on the scouting side over the past few weeks, so things may be ever-changing and fluid in this spot, but signs do point toward the Marlins now focusing on “safer” college bats. Berry and Parada both check that box. If Berry slips past 6, Colorado is likely the floor at 10.
7. Chicago Cubs
Brooks Lee, SS, Cal Poly
The Cubs love Neto, but in this instance he’s off the board. Chicago has also been attached to Oklahoma righty Cade Horton here, and if they’re trying to get creative with their money, either of those two names make sense. The Cubs also reportedly like Collier, but that seems to have faded a bit in conversations I’ve had.
8. Minnesota Twins
Cam Collier, 3B, Chipola College
All I’ve heard is college bats here. From Collier to Virginia Tech OF Gavin Cross… I also feel pretty good saying this may be the floor for Berry. Minnesota is one of the teams in the Top 10 I really haven’t heard attached to one specific name with any regularity.
9. Kansas City Royals
Cade Horton, RHP, Oklahoma
Horton is expected to command a pretty penny wherever he’s selected, but the Royals and their $5.2 million slot bonus should be able to handle the ask. Green being on the board here would be an extremely interesting development and something the Royals would have to consider. But beings they traded some of their bonus pool to Atlanta, it might make a play on Green difficult assuming they’ve had a plan carved out pre-trade. There have been rumors of the Mets trying to float Horton down to 11, but that doesn’t come to fruition here.
10. Colorado Rockies
Brock Porter, RHP, Orchard Lake St. Marys
This is a difficult pick to tab. With Green on the board, I do think the urge to land a player like that has got to be incredibly tempting, but it sounds like the Rockies have a host of names circled. GM Bill Schmidt has said acquiring and developing pitching needs to be an emphasis moving forward as signing pitchers to Colorado can be difficult. This is step one. It’s worth mentioning that Scott Boras has a reluctance to put his pitching clients in Colorado. Maybe this changes things.
11. New York Mets
Elijah Green, OF, IMG Academy
That’s right. I think the Mets are working to buy Green down to pick 11. There’s too many conversations that have been had with specific players and their representation over the past week for something not to be afoot. Sources have said the Mets have been having a lot of conversations surrounding their first round picks with players who wouldn’t ordinarily be valued right around this slot (and pick 14). We’ll see if this comes to fruition, but it’s a mock draft and expecting to get every pick right is an exercise in futility.
12. Detroit Tigers
Gavin Cross, Outfield, Virginia Tech
I continue to hear Cross and Texas Tech 2B/3B Jace Jung here. The Tigers like Horton a good deal, but he’s not expected to be on the board, nor is Neto who the team also values.
13. Los Angeles Angels
Connor Prielipp, LHP, Alabama
Your guess is as good as ours. We’ve heard Rocker here, but that was weeks ago. Have also heard Gonzaga righty Gabriel Hughes here, but when GM Perry Minasian was in to see him, it wasn’t his best day. This is probably the ceiling for UConn lefty Reggie Crawford, and the Angels do like him. Brock Porter, Dylan Lesko and Brandon Barriera all fit. That said, we think there’s a hint of urgency with the Angels and they’d prefer a quick-moving college arm.
14. New York Mets
Jace Jung, 2B/3B, Texas Tech
If the Mets end up with Green at 11, it’s unlikely they’ll be able to shave enough money of Jung’s asking price to land him here, but there are a lot of circumstances where Jung ends up with New York that don’t involve Green. So for that reason, we’re hedging our bets a bit. The Mets also love Horton, so he’s worth keeping tabs on.
15. San Diego Padres
Dylan Lesko, RHP, Buford
The Padres seem to be fully-focused on preps with their first pick. Rockwell-Heath SS Jett Williams and Lesko get a lot of the publicity here, though Cole Young gets some run in industry circles as well. I haven’t specifically heard Young attached to the team. The Padres don’t mind taking risks and Lesko’s surgically-repaired right elbow likely wouldn’t make General Manager AJ Preller bat an eye.
16. Cleveland Guardians
Cooper Hjerpe, LHP, Oregon State
Hjerpe figures to be off the board somewhere around this range and Cleveland is said to love the makeup and performance track record. Williams is a potential guy here, as is Orange Lutheran shortstop Mikey Romero, though we think both of those guys may be bigger targets as second-pick options.
17. Philadelphia Phillies
Kumar Rocker, RHP, Indy Ball
I continue to hear the Phillies connected to college pitchers at this stage. Rocker is repeatedly mentioned in the 10-20 range. It’s hard to lock in exactly where he fits. That said, multiple folks I’ve talked to have suggested wherever we have him mocked, mock him higher. Tough call at this point. The Phillies have been attached to James Madison outfielder Chase DeLauter and Gilbert here as well. I would think Bishop Gorman outfielder Justin Crawford would be of interest too.
18. Cincinnati Reds
Chase DeLauter, Outfield, James Madison
The Reds have been attached to a whole host of names, but nobody with a whole lot of regularity. This is more of a guess than anything.
19. Oakland Athletics
Dylan Beavers, outfielder, Cal
There’s been a ton of names connected to the Athletics in this spot, but we’ve only heard Beavers and DeLauter attached to them with any confidence. We’ll flip a coin and go with Beavers.
20. Atlanta Braves
Gabriel Hughes, RHP, Gonzaga
The Braves love Horton, but that isn’t happening. They’re also all over Romero, but this seems a little rich for the pick unless it’s a significant under-slot. I think it boils down to Hughes or Oklahoma State righty Justin Campbell. This seems like the ceiling for Campbell.
21. Seattle Mariners
Jett Williams, SS, Rockwell-Heath
The narrative here has changed a little bit. Seattle likes Williams, there’s no doubt about that, but picking at 21, they’re in a prime position to pick up a player that slips. They’re said to be “almost entirely” out on college outfielders here, but with Gilbert on the board, he has to be considered. If the Mariners aren’t totally in love with any one player, they may go with a college pitcher like Campbell, Georgia RHP Jonathan Cannon, or, if he’s still on the board, this is almost certainly the floor for Hjerpe. Of note, if Horton still finds himself on the board here, a slight over-slot deal might be in the cards. Seattle loves him.
22. St. Louis Cardinals
Peyton Graham, SS, Oklahoma
Susac still being on the board here might complicate things, but I think the RedBirds™ really like Graham and could see a fit here in this spot.
23. Toronto Blue Jays
Justin Crawford, Outfield, Bishop Gorman
I can’t find a legitimate landing spot for Crawford, but why not attach them to the organization most-famous for bloodline success? I have heard Hammond 3B Tucker Toman here going back to April, and Toronto likes Gilbert, but don’t think they’ll be the pick.
24. Boston Red Sox
Drew Gilbert, Outfield, Tennessee
Boston has been connected to Gilbert going back to May, but mocks have had him going off the board anywhere between pick 8 and pick 28. We think if he gets to 24, this is the floor. The Sox may also be in the market for other college outfielders like Tennessee OF Jordan Beck and DeLauter.
25. New York Yankees
Sterlin Thompson, 3B/RF, Florida
The Yankees have primarily been attached to college bats with impressive data in this spot. It’s the tact they took in selecting Trey Sweeney in 2021 and Austin Wells in 2020. Their interest in Vanderbilt outfielder Spencer Jones is very real, but Thompson has more hitter-ish tendencies and likely comes with a much higher floor.
26. Chicago White Sox
Tucker Toman, 3B, Hammond
The White Sox have been connected to so many names here it’s almost nauseating to count. Everyone knew they were taking Colson Montgomery in 2021. That transparency won’t be the case this year. They like Beavers, though they’ve been connected to Gilbert, Rocker, Thompson, Campbell, Rocker and others here too.
27. Milwaukee Brewers
Daniel Susac, C, Arizona
There’s no way the Brewers expect a name like Susac to still be available on the board this late. While they do absolutely love some of the college outfielders, getting a value like Susac at 27 is absurd.
28. Houston Astros
Eric Brown, Shortstop, Coastal Carolina
A lot of Louisville catcher Dalton Rushing here, as well as Jones and Prielipp depending on who remains on the board. We’d heard Houston’s interest in Brown going back to April, and we’ll revert back to that opinion.
29. Tampa Bay Rays
Cole Young, SS, North Allegheny
Young slipping to this spot would surprise many, but I think it’s possible. The Rays love a good athlete with versatility and the ability to hit. This is a good fit.
30. San Francisco Giants
Reggie Crawford, LHP, UConn
The Giants have no problem taking shots on guys with risk that carry immense upside. That’s Crawford to a T. Maybe the single greatest pillar in the Giants scouting organization is makeup and Crawford oozes it. He makes too much sense here despite rumors San Francisco is targeting college bats.