The big piece of Minnesota’s return for Nelson Cruz this July, right-handed starter Joe Ryan is an unusual pitcher. Looking at his elite 13 K/9 for his Minor League career throwing predominantly fastballs, you’d think he hits 96-99 mph…in fact, Ryan “only” throws 90-94, but he gets great backspin from an unusually low release point. The 25 year old throws his heater over 75% of the time, and in 2019 he had the best whiff rate on the pitch of any MiLB starter.
Ryan has been just as effective this year in Triple-A, K’ing 92 over 66 innings with a ridiculously low 0.79 WHIP and a 3.41 ERA. He commands his low-’80s changeup well with good run and sink away from lefties; his low-’80s slider has a “frisbee” look to it with lots of glove-side movement but not much vertical; and his low-’70s 12-6 curveball is more of a get-me-over pitch with some promise for improvement. Some scouts think Ryan will ultimately be a (very good) reliever due to his reliance on the fastball, but I think there’s enough versatility in his 4-pitch arsenal to succeed as a starter.
In last night’s ballgame, Ryan showed why that fastball is so effective but also realized he might have to get more creative at the Big League level and mix in offspeeds earlier to avoid getting shelled. After 2 dominant innings facing the minimum, he nearly imploded in the 3rd when his velocity dipped, giving up a 3-run homer and narrowly avoiding another 2-run bomb as Cubs hitters teed off on fastballs. When Ryan flipped the script and threw tons of offspeeds in the 4th & 5th innings, he went right back to cruising for another 6 up, 6 down stretch.
Bottom Line: this was an exciting start for Twins fans as Ryan showed his fastball can miss bats at the highest level and that his other 3 pitches work off of it nicely, allowing him to potentially stick as a starter. 5 innings, 3 hits, 1 BB, 5 K’s, 3 ER, 1 HR (89 pitches, 60 strikes)
The Deep Dive, Inning by Inning:
3rd inning:
Here’s where the rubber met the road for Ryan. In 2 perfect innings he threw almost exclusively fastballs (2 sliders) as hitters kept swinging under them. Ryan’s velo had already dipped to 90-92 mph in the 2nd, but now it was down as low as 88. He started missing a lot to his arm side, walking his first batter on 5 pitches then falling behind his next 3 hitters 3-1, 3-1, and 2-0. While Ryan mixed in a changeup (for a ball) to the 1st hitter and curve (ball) to his 2nd, he was still throwing mostly heaters, allowing the Cubs to sit on that pitch. He still had life up in the zone to K his 2nd batter, but then he threw 5 straight fastballs to Austin Romine, who yanked an 88 mph meatball off the wall for a double. Ryan pumped 5 more heaters to Ortega to overpower him for a weak flyout, then finally mixed it up by throwing 2 sliders to Frank Shwindel. In a 1-1 count, Ryan then hit his spot up and in with a 90 mph heater, but the diminished velocity allowed Shwindel to blast it 101 mph to left field for a 3-run blast.
Things then got really ugly as Ryan and catcher Ryan Jeffers opted to double down on the fastball heavy approach: he threw 5 straight heaters to Ian Happ, who scalded the 5th at 102 mph for a single. Ryan finally mixed it up with 3 sliders in 6 pitches to Patrick Wisdom, but Wisdom cranked another fat, 89 mph heater for the hardest hit ball of the night at 105 mph…luckily it fell just short of the left field wall for a 367-foot flyout.
4th inning:
Having been humbled in the 3rd, Ryan regained his control and flipped the script beautifully by mixing in his 3 offspeed pitches. Very important: he didn’t lose confidence in his fastball. After leading Jason Heyward off with a 69 mph curve, he pumped 7 straight heaters between 89 and 91 mph for a flyout (fortunate to get away with a few meatballs). But Ryan then showed good movement with 3 straight sliders to Romine for a weak flyout before bamboozling Alfonso Rivas with back-to-back changeups for a strikeout.
5th inning:
Ryan stuck with a kitchen sink approach to great effect, throwing just 2 fastballs in his first 10 pitches. He K’d Sergio Alcantara with a backdoor 71 mph curveball then flipped that same pitch in for a 1st-pitch strike to Romine and got a broken bat grounder 0-2 going below the knees with the curve. After slowing Rafael Ortega down with 3 changeups in the first 5 pitches of the AB, Ryan went back to his bread and butter with 5 straight fastballs for a flyout. After erratic command in the 3rd inning, Ryan got ahead of 4 of his 6 batters in the 4th and 5th, finishing strong to show Twins fans what the hype is all about.
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Photo Credit: Bruce Kluckhorn, USA TODAY Sports