JJ Bleday — 60 Future Value, strong everyday RFer with All-Star upside
Hit: 60
Game Power: 60
Raw Pwr: 60
Plate Discipline: 60
Speed: 50
Athleticism: 50
Defense: 55
Arm: 60
When the Marlins drafted JJ Bleday #4 overall in 2019 out of Vanderbilt, everyone agreed it was a no-brainer. A physical specimen with an advanced on-base/power approach, Bleday was a good defensive right fielder coming off a monstrous .347 AVG, 27 homers, and 1.166 OPS over 71 games. A rough full season debut at Double-A this year had him all the way down to #95 on FanGraphs’ midseason Big Board, but after seeing him dominate the Fall League, I belive Bleday is easily a top-50 prospect.
Of course, a .695 OPS at Double-A this year when he was only 1.5 years younger than the average player is concerning. But having watched Bleday play in 10 Fall League games, I believe any ranking towards the bottom of the top 100 is overly weighing recent statistics and under-weighing scouting. Bleday absolutely had one of the best swings in this league: he stays compact to the ball and then extends for a powerful finish to all fields. It’s fluid, it’s explosive, and it produces lots of line drives as well as high drives.
My scouting report isn’t based heavily on Bleday’s Fall League stats. He raked in Arizona but so did everybody. I do like the 16 walks to 19 K’s in 99 AB’s, however. This is consistent with his 61 walks to 58 K’s in 2019 at Vandy. He can be beat away by 95+ velocity with 2-seam movement, but he also covered a lot of fastballs away and made good swing decisions taking junk to get ahead in counts.
Let’s talk tools. If you stand next to Bleday you realize he’s bigger than he looks from a distance. This guy is a legit 6’3” with strong hands, wrists, forearms, & legs. I think his speed is average but he throws well and will be an above average defensive right fielder. The fact that Bleday signed for $6.7 million does not mean he’s going to be a good Major Leaguer. But the fact that he just showcased plus hit & power tools consistent with his phenomenal sophomore & junior seasons suggests that this just-turned 24 year old is going to be a good everyday rightfielder with a chance at a couple All-Star seasons.
He’s a thinking mans’ hitter—watch his 10 minute hitting lesson at Gulf Coast State from last year and it’s clear Bleday really understands his own swing mechanics and how to improve in BP. Talking to him during my 1-on-1 Prospects Live exclusive, I found that he is thinking more about covering different areas of the zone & being on time for different speeds than worrying about yanking homers (if that’s what he was focusing on, I’d worry he’s going to continue struggling with average and on base, the areas he should most polish since he already has good raw power and a college track record of elite home run rate).
James McArthur – 45 FV, back-end starter who could unlock 50 upside with elevated 4-seamers
Fastball, 93-96 mph: 50
Curveball, 81-83 mph: 60
Changeup: 45 (I really need more looks at it)
Command: 55
A broad pitcher with lean muscle and real athleticism at 6’7”, McArthur opened eyes in the Fall League to earn a 40-man roster spot. 2.8 BB/9 at Double-A was a great sign that he can stick as a starter despite being hittable in the zone. (A dramatic improvement over bad 2019 control). He misses enough bats and limits homers enough to make it all work. I see “good” effort in his delivery in that it helps him generate velocity without getting him off balance. The 25 year old strides powerfully with good extension pointing directly towards home. McArthur cut his arm action down from long as an amateur to full now, which helps keep those long levers under control so that he can do a good job repeating, especially for his size. This in turn helps him maintain velo as he gets deeper into the game.
The standout pitch here is a hard 2-plane curveball with late movement. McArthur believes in his breaker whatever the count, capable of locating it for a strike and very good at keeping it out of the zone with 2 strikes while still making it appealing early on its way to home. Really works that corner down and away to righties with it. I’m not sure how much McArthur still throws a distinct slider vs. just mixes in a tighter, harder version of his curve…bottom line is there’s nice variability as the harder version is really tough to distinguish from the FB until it’s too late.
McArthur also has some feel for the changeup, which he’s been throwing since his Ole Miss days. Quality arm side run on that pitch; I didn’t see much drop. He gets similar run with his FB to jam righties inside, and he also loves to sink it down at hitter’s knees. He has arm-side FB command to pick off the corner against lefties, which then sets up his breaker to start out of the zone and break glove side for a called 3rd strike. Crucially, McArthur will pitch in to a righty even behind in the count 2-0 and get a called strike or foul ball.
The missing piece for McArthur is the elevated fastball. I would love to see spin rate and movement data on his 4-seamer. If he mixed that in upstairs while continuing to pepper the knees with the sinker hitters would be off balance often because of the tunnels he can create with his plus breaker. His fastball would play up a lot more in that scenario to 55 or 60 grade.
Logan Gillaspie — average middle reliever, ability to throw multiple innings with 3-pitch mix
4-Sm Fastball, 95-97 mph: 55
Slider, 83-84: 50
Changeup, 85-87: 55
Command: 50
A great Indy Ball find for the Brewers in 2019, Gillaspie (undrafted out of Oxnard College) has developed a Big League caliber arsenal. Just added to the 40-man roster, he doesn’t quite put it all together for me, keeping him an average middle reliever despite good velocity and changeup movement, a decent slider, and average command.
Soft bodied with unimposing stature, Gillaspie is a mediocre athlete, but it works as a pitcher’s body with a strong lower half and shorter levers. He’s learned to air it out since converting from a starter in 2019 to reliever in 2021. He landed softer on his front leg then, whereas now he straightens that leg out firm then whips that right leg around, yanking him towards first base. That momentum allows for surprising 95-97 velocity over multiple innings, and he touched 98 with more life in 1 dominant inning in the championship game. Good arm speed and twitch in his hips. The effort and falling off will probably keep him at average command, but he creates deception with an unusual move: holding his glove below the belt, when he starts his delivery (always from the stretch) he simply drops his hand down behind his back knee then fires the ball out from behind his head with a full arm action.
That deception is important because Gillaspie’s fastball is straight; he needs to locate it up in the zone—where he often goes for lots of whiffs—or on the edges because over the middle it gets hit. I would love to know what the spin rate and vertical movement are; my suspicion is it doesn’t stand out in those areas, holding it back from being 60 grade. The slider flashes above average with good bite, coming up out of his hand then darting down hard and late for good vertical movement. But it’s not consistent enough to earn a 55 grade. Gillaspie has great feel for his changeup, able to locate it in any situation for a strike on the black or below the zone with good run and tumble.
While it’s not an overpowering mix, I like that he believes in all 3 pitches, allowing him to keep both lefties and righties thinking. In low leverage Big League appearances, I would trust him to go 2 innings.
Follow Jacob on Twitter @TheReelJZ