Covering the major product releases and news in the baseball card hobby for the week of February 19th through February 25th, 2024. Releases this week include 2023 Topps Five Star.
College Baseball Roundup - Week 1
Three HS Pitchers to Know Going Into the Spring
With the spring season beginning, organizations are getting started on getting their last looks on some of the prep talent that is available in the 2024 draft. Today, I’ll be looking at three prep pitchers to keep an eye on as their senior season kicks off. Let’s dive in.
RHP Aidan Hayse - Joliet Catholic Academy (#74 on Top 100)
There might not be more of a data darling in this year’s prep class of pitchers than Hayse. It’s a pretty ridiculous three-pitch mix that shows some solid upside. Standing at 6’3, Hayse is uber-athletic. It’s a smooth delivery with some electric arm speed. Sequencing-wise, he could stand to get into the front leg a little more consistently, as he can get a bit pushy with the back side, causing him to miss up and arm-side on occasion. However, when he does have it all synced up, it’s clear that there’s something special there. Hailing from Illinois, Hayse hasn’t seen as much time in game as some of his warmer-weather companions in the class have. As he makes the switch from high school to either Tennessee or pro ball, expect him to settle in fairly quickly and put up some more consistent results.
Let’s get into this ridiculous three-pitch mix. His worst pitch is probably his fastball. That said, he consistently throws it in the 91-93 mph range and touched 95 mph this summer. It gets around 16 inches of IVB with about 10 inches of horizontal break to the arm side. When it’s at its best, it shows late life to the arm side. With the arm speed at present, I wouldn’t put it past him to consistently run it up in the mid-high 90s in the coming years. The slider is a real weapon. He comfortably throws it in the 80-82 mph range, and there is some real feel for spin here. The slider typically gets around 14 inches of horizontal break, and he can locate it to either side of the plate. Profiles as a future above-average pitch, and will only continue to improve as the velocity ticks up. The changeup is borderline ridiculous. It’s a hard one as he throws it in the 83-86 mph range, but he’s still able to get upwards of 20 (!!) inches of horizontal break to the arm side. This creates some really uncomfortable looks for both right and left-handed hitters. He throws it at a lower release height, allowing it to produce a pretty steep vertical approach angle as it enters into the zone. It shows the promise of a future double-plus pitch. All in all, Hayse possesses all of the raw tools to succeed at the next level, and the pitchability is only going to continue to improve.
LHP Ethan Schiefelbein - Corona HS (#13)
Standing at 6”1 175lbs, Schiefelbein isn’t necessarily physically imposing, but the arm talent here is very real and has a chance to be very special. It’s a loose and effortless delivery that is extremely well-sequenced. He can simply cruise through games, oftentimes looking as if he has yet to even break a sweat. But, when he really needs to ramp it up, he’ll add a little extra juice to blow a pitch by the hitter. It’s an incredibly mature approach to the game, and he has all the tools to stick as a starter for a long time to come. He handles his business on the mound like a professional, and the mental game is advanced beyond his years. When you combine this advanced approach with impressive arm talent, Schiefelbein shows outstanding promise and has a chance to be one of the first prep southpaws taken off the board this summer.
Getting into the actual pitch miz, Schiefelbein has a really impressive arsenal. He typically throws the fastball in the 89-92 mph range, occasionally running it up to 94 mph. He gets an incredible amount of carry on the pitch, allowing it to really play up in the zone. It frequently pushes 20 inches IVB, and is a real weapon. His curveball is one of my favorite pitches in this prep class. Aesthetically, it brings back memories of Barry Zito’s big 12/6 breaker that gave hitters fits for years. It’s a true 12/6 that pairs extremely well with the riding fastball he features. He has the ability to manipulate the spin and shape, sometimes opting to flip it in the middle of the zone with a bigger break, and sometimes throwing it a bit firmer and burying it when ahead in the count. This ability to provide different looks with the breaking ball keeps hitters off-balance and second-guessing, and it produces some really ugly swings from some of the best hitters in the class. The changeup shows a good bit of arm-side run, pushing 15 inches of HZB frequently. This allows him to work both up and down and in and out. He throws a slider on occasion, but it oftentimes ends up fairly similar to the curveball as he gets fatigued. As he moves into pro ball or UCLA, the slider should continue to clean up and develop. This will provide him with a pretty devastating 4-pitch mix that can be deployed to any quadrant of the zone. Either way, the current arsenal shows plenty of promise. The two-pitch sequence of the riding fastball and depthy curveball will continue to be his bread and butter and allow him to avoid platoon splits against righties. He’s a mature, calm, and collected pitcher who will most certainly have plenty of eyes on him this spring as teams prepare for the draft.
RHP Tommy Bridges - Harvard-Westlake HS (NR)
Bridges has a smaller frame than Hayse and Schiefelbein, standing at 5”11, but he uses it incredibly well. It’s an incredibly smooth and incredibly efficient delivery. He stays closed for a really long time, effectively hiding the ball from hitters as he goes through the delivery, which leads to some really uncomfortable at-bats. Bridges goes about his business on the mound with an aura of confidence and poise. Like Schiefelbein, he seems to be collected beyond his years, and the entire operation when he has the ball in his hands is incredibly relaxed and confident. As he finishes up his senior year and moves on to TCU or the draft, he should see some really nice physical development which will only improve the already polished arsenal that he has. Bridges probably falls into the high-floor, lower-ceiling category, but there’s some real projection here to be a middle-of-the-order rotation arm for a long time to come.
Bridges features a really solid three-pitch mix. The fastball will consistently be 88-90 mph, occasionally topping out at 92 mph. From the lower release height that he creates from his stature and his delivery down the mound, he’s able to create some tough angles to both the top and bottom of the zone. He’ll manipulate the shape and throw it with sink down and some ride up, keeping hitters guessing even with the heater. Off of the fastball, Bridges will deploy a slider with some real teeth to it frequently. He shows really advanced feel to land both the slider and the fastball in any count and to any zone. It’s a sharp slider at 80-82 mph that misses a good bit of bats and hardly ever generates good contact. He tunnels it extremely well with the fastball with sink at the bottom, and his ability to add some deception into his motion allows it to play up even more than one might think. He also uses a fading changeup that he throws at 80-82 mph. This creates a good change of speed as well as a change of direction off of the slider. All in all, it’s about as polished of a repertoire as you could ask for as a prep arm. The physical gains will only allow the stuff to improve even more.
This Week in Baseball Cards - 2/12 - 2/18
2024 Topps Series 1 Preview
College Baseball Preseason Top 25 Rankings
Five Northeast Data Standouts
One of the tools we rely on heavily at Prospects Live when evaluating players at both the pro and amateur levels is data. Basically, our process for evaluation and analysis involves blending live looks, data, and industry chatter. Using all the tools available to us to help paint the most accurate picture possible is the ultimate goal. Analytics and data are often framed as a warring faction against scouting and “boots on the ground” evaluation. That may be an accurate depiction for some areas of the baseball world, but here at Prospects Live, we believe that all the pieces matter. Data is a tool. Stopwatches are a tool. Radar guns, too. If it aids us in our mission to provide accurate, detailed, and informative content, we’re going to use it. The draft team at Prospects Live keeps an eye on hundreds of MLB draft prospects each year. Those live looks, just like the data, are integral to our evaluation methods. No “battle” exists between the two in our minds.
Beyond evaluation, we use data to help identify players that are worth closer inspection. Evaluating college baseball in the Northeast region (for the purposes of this article, the Northeast region includes the following states: CT, MA, ME, NH, NJ, NY, PA, RI, and VT) has its fair share of challenges. Smaller programs, varying levels of competition, and unpredictable weather represent just a few of those challenges. In the public space where Prospects Live operates, information can be difficult to come by, which leads to players with “draft pedigree” slipping through the cracks. Pro teams and area scouts likely know about these hidden gems, but they aren’t exactly motivated to spill the beans. Data helps us uncover some of those types of players, which in turn makes our draft analysis, boards, and rankings more accurate. The goals of this piece were to highlight a handful of ballplayers with intriguing hitting or pitching data while also modeling how we use data at Prospects Live to identify players. Because of that, I shied away from including more well-known players from the region, such as Mike Sirota, and opted to stay true to the process that I use to find talented ballplayers that belong in the draft discussion. Here are five players that are worth monitoring from the Northeast region.
TREVOR COHEN
School: Rutgers
Position: Outfield
Class: Sophomore | 2025 Draft
B-T: Left-Left
H-W: 6’1-195
*Photo Credit: Rich Graessle
Trevor Cohen was an opening-day starter for the Scarlet Knights in 2023 as a freshman, flanking superstar centerfielder Ryan Lasko in left field. His 4-for-4 performance against Campbell was a sign of things to come, as Cohen went on to have a more than respectable debut season with a final batting line of .298/.383./.353 with 26 walks and 22 strikeouts in 261 plate appearances. That level of production earned Cohen a spot on the Big Ten All-Freshman Team, and he was named Big Ten Freshman of the Week twice last spring. Cohen is a player worth getting excited about if you are a Scarlet Knight supporter, and the underlying offensive data reinforces that feeling. So what does Cohen do that is so special? It’s simple, really:
Cohen finished his freshman year with a contact rate slightly above 90%. That 90% contact threshold places Cohen in an exclusive group among qualified D1 hitters (min. 100 PA), and you can count the number of freshmen to clear that mark on two hands. In our available dataset, Cohen appears to be the youngest D1 player to record a contact rate of 90% or higher during the 2023 season. While there are undoubtedly aspects of Cohen’s game that can stand to improve, his ability to consistently make contact right from the outset establishes a sturdy foundation to build upon.
I saw Cohen twice during the fall, and while the build remains lean, it looked like he added some good weight during the offseason. He hit a homer in a scrimmage against Vanderbilt and a triple off the center field wall against Stony Brook, perhaps a sign of things to come for Cohen in his second college season. Cohen split time between center and right field this fall. He is likely better suited for right long-term, which puts more pressure on his bat. He has quick, adjustable hands with an innate feel for the barrel. However, he tends to get on top of the ball, which leads to grounders and limits his power production. I would be shocked if Cohen didn’t significantly improve both his extra-base (nine XBH) and home run (one HR) totals from last spring. He’s currently in the “tweener” category, but Cohen has two more years to develop a little more thump to pair with his advanced bat-to-ball ability. He has a realistic chance to be one of the top college bats for the 2025 draft in the northeast region.
NICK ROSELLI
School: Binghamton
Position: Second Base
Class: Junior | 2024 Draft
B-T: Left-Right
H-W: 5’10-195
While Trevor Cohen excelled in an individual category (contact %), Binghamton second basemen, Nick Roselli distinguished himself in several offensive categories. He enters his junior year with a career .336/.426/.569 batting line with nearly equal walks to strikeouts (49:53) and 18 long balls. Some of Roselli’s top accomplishments to date include finishing 2nd in program history for RBI in a single season with 61 RBI last spring, recording a seventeen-game hitting streak that went from April to May, and being a Regional All-Tournament selection as a freshman in 2022, where he went 6-8 with two homers in two games. Roselli will be among the elite performers in Binghamton baseball history with a successful campaign in year three of his college career.
Roselli is undersized, but there’s plenty of strength in his compact frame, especially in the upper half. He has short levers, which allow him to control the inner half of the plate and get good loft when turning on inside fastballs. While he doesn’t have huge raw power, the batted ball data suggests Roselli has the ability to impact the ball enough at the pro level. Roselli’s average exit velocity was above 92 MPH, and his sweet spot percentage (batted balls with 95+ EV and 10°-30° launch angle) eclipsed the 25% mark. Roselli ranked among the 90th percentile in both categories, according to our dataset from the 2023 season. He amplified those totals with strong contact and chase rates, showing off his well-rounded offensive skillset. For the year, Roselli’s overall contact rate hovered right around 85%, with an even higher rate of contact against fastballs 93 MPH or higher, and he chased pitches outside of the strike zone at a 17% clip. Those are solid totals for sure, and while neither the contact nor chase percentages are elite, they indicate that Roselli’s offensive production to date isn’t simply a small conference mirage. When you combine the batted ball data that was referenced earlier, you end up with a highly intriguing ballplayer that merits closer evaluation.
Playing at Binghamton in the America East conference has allowed Roselli to fly under the national radar to date. But if he’s able to run it back in year three, show he can stick at second base defensively, and continue producing with Bourne on the Cape this summer, he’ll get some love on draft boards across the industry.
NICK GROVES
School: Niagara
Position: Centerfield
Class: Sophomore | 2025 Draft
B-T: Left-Right
H-W: 5’10-170
*Photo Credit: Michael P Majewski
If it’s easy for a guy like Nick Roselli to fly under the radar at Binghamton, think about what it must be like to play college ball minutes away from the Canadian border. That’s the reality for sophomore Nick Groves, a centerfielder who led all of D1 baseball in walks per game (1.21 BB/G) and amassed more base-on-balls in a single season than any player in Niagara and MAAC history. Groves displayed superlative table-setting skills atop the Purple Eagles lineup, finishing the 2023 season with a .339/.504/.421 batting line. An Ontario native, Groves has a chance to be the first Purple Eagle selected in the MLB Draft since Matt Brash (Padres, 4th round) back in 2019.
As you might have guessed, Groves’ inclusion in this article is based on his plate discipline and approach as a hitter. Those elite walk totals have to come from somewhere, right? Groves finished his freshmen season with a superb chase rate of around 14%. That’s an impressive rate on its own, but when you combine that with some of Groves’ other tools, you can picture the overall profile attracting eyeballs from area scouts. Groves ran a contact rate in the 80-85% range, showing an ability to handle decent velocity, spin, and offspeed offerings. On top of that, Groves has outstanding speed that he began to harness more effectively as he got his feet wet in college ball. Sources I reached out to said Groves’ run grade is at least a 60 and potentially a 70 grade tool presently. Groves also looks extremely capable in center field and even has some experience manning the keystone. So, put that all together, and what do you have? A twitchy athlete with serious wheels who controls the strike zone, puts the bat on the ball, and plays up the middle defensively. Sounds like an ideal leadoff hitter, no?
Of course, Groves will need to show more impact at the dish. His power production in 2023 was underwhelming, to put it nicely. He can get a little passive at the plate, though there is some evidence that he began to show more positive aggression as the spring progressed, while the swing can drift from ‘slasher’ and into ‘slap’ territory. Still, the base of skills and tools are palpable, and Groves has two more years to complement his game with some added impact at the plate. It’s not a perfect one-to-one comparison, but Groves reminds me a little bit of former Demon Deacon Tommy Hawke. Hawke had a similar profile and toolset as Groves (he even played a little middle infield) following his freshman year in 2022 but was able to grow into some power during his draft year. That bump in power was enough for Hawke to hear his name called by the Guardians in the 6th round last July. Whether Groves can follow a similar path remains to be seen, but there’s no question that he’ll be followed closely by MLB clubs over the next couple of years.
RYAN DROMBOSKI
School: Penn
Position: Right-Handed Pitcher
Class: Junior | 2024 Draft
H-W: 6’2-205
*Photo Credit: Michael Nance
I’m going to steal a term from Baseball America for a moment to describe Ryan Dromboski. He’s one of my personal cheeseballs in the 2024 draft class. The New Jersey native was named Ivy League Pitcher of the Year last spring and is an early favorite to obtain that honor once again in 2024. The junior righty finished his second year at Penn with a 3.17 ERA, 97 strikeouts, 35 walks, and 51 hits allowed in 71 innings. During conference play, Dromboski put together a 15-strikeout performance against Princeton and followed it up with a complete game, 12-strikeout outing against Brown. He also earned a win against #13 Auburn during regionals, allowing just two runs in 5.1 innings. Dromboski pitches with an incredible amount of intensity on the mound and can often be heard roaring after securing a big out. A self-described psychopath on the mound, Dromboski is the undisputed leader of this Quakers pitching staff, a group that looks poised to do some damage in postseason play for a second straight year.
There are a couple of data areas that are particularly striking with Dromboski. First, his four-seam fastball (91 MPH avg; 95 MPH max) has an extremely low vertical approach angle (VAA), below -3.75. That puts him in the top 1% among qualified D1 pitchers, according to our dataset from 2023. A ‘flat’ approach angle isn’t the end-all-be-all, but it’s a data point that pro teams value highly, and Dromboski’s VAA is firmly in outlier territory. Dromboski also used a sinker about half as often as the four-seam, and it actually had better results when it came to generating whiffs. That might be due to Dromboski’s other remarkable attribute, the strength of his slider, a pitch that tends to pair well with sinkers. Last year, Dromboski’s sinker had over 17 inches of horizontal break (HB) to his arm side with about 10 inches of induced vertical break (IVB). Combine that with a low 80s slider that averages over 15 inches of HB in the opposite direction with 5 inches of IVB and you have quite the one-two punch to keep hitters guessing. Dromboski threw his sweeper nearly as often as his four-seam last year (over 33% usage), and for good reason, as he racked up a whiff rate over 55% and an in-zone whiff rate above 40%. The slider is a clear plus-level pitch, which is probably a conservative grade when you consider both the shape of the slider and the way it pairs with the rest of his arsenal. For good measure, Dromboski also has a solid changeup with good arm-side fading action and great velocity separation off his fastball (~11 MPH). He pitches with some effort and he can lose control of his fastball at times, but the upside is immense, especially if his velocity adds a tick or two this spring.
I’m not entirely sure why Dromboski hasn’t received the attention that he’s clearly worthy of. Maybe it’s a lack of exposure. Maybe it’s a general hesitation when ranking pitchers out of the Ivy League. Whatever the reason, Dromboski hasn’t received a ton of love on preseason draft rankings in the public space. Expect that to change quickly as the 2024 season kicks into full gear.
RYAN REICH
School: Seton Hall
Position: Right-Handed Pitcher
Class: Sophomore | 2025 Draft
H-W: 6’2-215
I wrote about sophomore Ryan Reich a few months ago after checking out Seton Hall this past fall. To quickly recap, Reich was one of the top relievers in the Big East last year, emerging as a late-inning weapon for the Pirates last spring. He has since been named to multiple preseason All-Big East teams as he is expected to slide right into the weekend rotation in 2024. After seeing Reich live, it’s clear that he has gotten stronger, with the physicality necessary to handle a much larger role. On top of that, I also saw clear growth in his pitch arsenal during that short appearance, which suggested to me that there is legitimate draft potential moving forward.
So, what is it that makes Reich so interesting? The heater. You have probably heard commentators and analysts use the term “explosive fastball” before. A handful of Reich’s fastballs absolutely exploded during the scrimmage I intended. And I’m not talking about velocity here. Plenty of hard throwers have fastballs that lack life and are more hittable than you’d expect, given the radar gun readings. Reich’s velocity is moving in the right direction. He was up to 93 MPH and sitting around 90 MPH in my look, which is a slight uptick from 2023, when he averaged 88 MPH on his fastball. Even at 90 MPH, hitters have trouble catching up and squaring the pitch, thanks to the explosiveness that I mentioned earlier. This is an obvious example of a pitcher’s fastball playing above its velocity, and the data helps to confirm this.
Extension: 6.4-6.5 feet of extension in his delivery, roughly MLB average
Release Height: between 4.9-5.0 feet. Way below the D1 and MLB average,
18+ inches of induced vertical break (IVB)
Without getting too deep in the weeds with pitch data, these data areas all suggest that what I saw from Reich during that scrimmage was real. Like Dromboski, Reich has a low, flat approach angle (VAA) on his fastball in the -3.90 to -4.00 range, giving it that explosion as it crosses the plate. With such a low approach and solid extension, the pitch gets on hitters quickly and gives off the ‘rising fastball’ illusion that results in empty swings. The results on Dromboski’s four-seamer were just OK, but Reich’s were phenomenal. Even at the lower velocity that Reich showed last spring, he recorded an overall whiff rate and in-zone whiff rate above 30%. When I first saw those percentages, I figured they must be pretty good. But after taking a closer look it was clear that not only were they good, they were kind of special. Take a look at the chart below:
Those are all of the qualified pitchers from our dataset with a fastball that had both a 30% whiff rate and a 30% in-zone whiff rate in 2023. The majority of those pitchers are either in pro ball now or, like Reich, won’t be draft-eligible until 2025. Side note: Tennessee’s AJ Russell might be pretty good. Obviously, Reich threw fewer innings than many on this list, and he also faced a different level of competition, but the overall point remains true. When you miss bats like this with your fastball, pro teams are going to pay attention. And if he starts throwing harder over the next two seasons, those whiff rates may climb even further.
Reich isn’t a finished product by any means. We still need to see how he performs in a starting role. There’s a little violence and head movement in the delivery that could signal a future in the pen. We’ll also need to see how he complements his fastball moving forward. His curveball and changeup were both lackluster in 2023. However, both pitches appeared to be overhauled, with the curve looking more like a true slider, flashing short, late break at 80 MPH, and the changeup featuring splitter-type action at 83 MPH. The development of those two pitches will greatly determine what kind of ‘ceiling’ Reich has as a draft prospect, but the fastball data and results immediately turn him into a high-priority follow for the next two years.
Trending Upward: Three HS Hitters Trending In the Right Direction
With the 2024 draft approaching this summer, high school players have a couple more months to catch some helium and rise up draft boards. Today, we’ll be focusing on the offensive side of the ball and looking at three hitters that I believe should be receiving more attention than they currently are. Let’s dive in.
3B Kale Fountain - Norris (NE) HS (#81 on Top 100)
Fountain is very physically imposing, standing at 6’5” and 230 pounds. He’s an incredibly gifted athlete, especially for his size, evident by the 6.65 60 time he ran at PG National over the summer. Fountain plays a solid third base in the field, showing off his range and fast-twitch on balls in the hole and down the line. He has a shot to stick on the dirt moving forward, but I would imagine he’ll end up in the outfield once he enters professional ball. The real upside here is at the plate, however, as Fountain has some of the best raw power in the class.
At the plate, Fountain gets on plane early and provides some real leverage when he gets the arms extended toward the front of the plate. He holds the single-season HR record for Nebraska high school baseball, and a few looks at the swing and size can explain why. He gets into rotation incredibly efficiently and quickly. This allows him to be on plane for a long time and still do some damage on balls that he may have “mishit”. At the PBR Super 60 event, he posted a top exit velocity of 108, really showcasing the top-of-the-line power potential that he holds. In game, he could benefit from getting the ball a little more out front on occasion, but the hit tool is still really impressive for a guy with this much power. He possesses the ability to hit the ball to all fields, and this combination of raw power and solid bat-to-ball skills should be intriguing for some organizations this summer.
INF Ty Southisene - Basic Academy (NV) (#36)
Despite winning the PG All-American Game MVP, it still seems like the industry is rather low on Southisene. Quite the opposite of Fountain, Southisene stands at 5’9” and 160 pounds. However, he plays with the confidence and swagger of the biggest guy on the field every time he laces them up. He is extremely athletic and an absolute sparkplug on both sides of the ball. In the field, Southisene might be the smoothest infielder I’ve seen at the high school level. While his arm may not be top of the line, he more than makes up for it with quick hands and feet that can make any play on the dirt. He will most certainly stick at second base for a long time, and he profiles as a plus to double-plus defender due to his incredible instincts and smooth actions. A 6.45 runner, Southisene gets great jumps on the basepaths, and his high baseball IQ leads to excellent reads on balls in play.
At the plate, Southisene hits literally anything and everything. Velo, spin, doesn’t matter. He utilizes a decent sized leg kick, but he has great control and rhythm throughout the swing that allows him to be on time to do damage even at his size. The hand speed is really impressive, and part of the reason why he always seems to be on the barrel in games. Regardless of his physical stature, the bat speed, fluidity, and explosiveness allow his game to play up. One of the more consistent hitters in this 2024 class, and there’s no doubt in my mind he will keep these plus bat-to-ball skills as he moves to the next level.
SS Arnold “AJ” abernathy - North Cobb (GA) HS (#37)
Abernathy is another high-level athlete with a really nice feel for the game. His quick twitch and movements in the infield are extremely fluid and natural, and his arm talent stands out, as he was clocked at 98mph from the outfield at PG National. Moving forward, he will more than likely stick in the outfield, most likely in center where he’ll have more of an opportunity to show off his plus first step and 6.38 speed. He has the speed to impact the game in a variety of ways. On the basepaths, his twitch and pure speed can wreak havoc and will be a major advantage with the new rules that encourage stolen bases. From a pure athleticism standpoint, these tools are not easy to come by, and will certainly be a point of appeal for organizations this summer.
At the plate, Abernathy uses a taller setup and a leg kick as he moves forward into launch. Shows solid bat-to-ball skills and adjustability, allowing him to hit to all fields. His quick twitch allows him to see the ball deep and make mid-swing adjustments, which will be big for him to hopefully avoid drastic platoon splits against left-handed pitchers as he progresses. He is hit over power right now, but there is promise for more power as he learns how to tap into some more of the natural athleticism in his swing. Regardless, even if the hit tool ends up being average, his tools will still be able to shine on the basepaths and in the field. He has a really promising future.
2020 Bowman & Bowman Chrome Retrospective
This Week in Baseball Cards - 2/5 - 2/11
This Week in Baseball Cards - 1/29 - 2/4
Live Looks: Future Stars Showdown, Globe Life Field
Over the weekend I attended the Future Stars Series showdown at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas. Playing in the event were five JUCO teams, New Mexico State, Blinn, Northwest Florida State, Navarro College, Odessa, and San Jac. In addition to these top-tier programs was a team of some top-tier high schoolers, who were split into two teams. Getting to see this much talent in one place is a great opportunity, and getting to see it on a big-league field adds some great perspective. Fly balls that are usually blown out at these players’ home parks are easy flyouts in this stadium. It puts into perspective how good professional players are. With all that being said, it’s important to remember the context of this event. It’s January, so a lot of these players aren’t close to the rhythm of the season yet, the scoreboard isn’t operational. It’s good to treat it as more of a spring training-like environment, and not too much weight into the results. Below are some players that caught my attention throughout the weekend.
Slade Caldwell, OF, Future Stars
An ultra-twitchy, squatty outfielder, the Ole Miss commit impressed with his speed and athleticism. Busting multiple 70-grade run times on hard-hit ground balls, Caldwell’s speed allows him to cover plenty of ground in center field, as well. At the plate, Caldwell showed a mature approach, working multiple walks and showing a good feel for the strike zone. He didn’t flinch at secondaries and jumped on fastballs in his zone. Caldwell has a sweet swing and is an explosive rotator, putting out impressive bat speed for his stature. He shows great plate coverage and ability to manipulate the barrel, long story short, Caldwell is going to get on base a ton. While he may have below-average arm strength in center, his athleticism and range give him a good chance to stick there. Caldwell is a super exciting player with a high on-base and defensive floor, whose explosiveness may give him more power than you would expect from his stature. With a serious chance to go on Day 1 of the draft, he should be a fun player to follow this spring.
Brandon Arvidson, LHP, San Jac
After redshirting at Texas A&M in 2023, Arvidson headed South to San Jac. In this outing, the Texas commit was 91-94 MPH and touched 95 MPH a few times, throwing both two-seamers and four-seamers. Arvidson threw one 87 MPH slider to an LHH, but his main bread and butter was his 80-82 MPH curveball, which he was landing for strikes against right-handed hitters and left-handed hitters. With short 1-7 movement and coming from his over-the-top release, hitters had a hard time picking it up out of the hand, generating multiple whiffs. Arvidson also flashed a few changeups at 84-85 MPH. These had more fade than depth but were a good change of pace off of his fastball. I’d like to see him throw that high 80s slider more often, as it could be a missing weapon needed against left-handed hitters. Arvidson threw strikes but lacked consistent fastball command. His tilted shoulders and hips give him some reliever red flags, but he may throw just enough strikes to give him and his deep arsenal a chance to start at the college level should he make it to Austin.
Thomas Mangus, RHP, Navarro
Up to 94 MPH in the past, the physical Oklahoma commit Mangus was 89-92 MPH, touching 93 MPH in this outing. Mangus didn’t show crazy fastball shape, generating some ride and getting a few whiffs, but he was able to command it to both sides of the plate, from a high ¾ slot, and often elevated it late in counts. Mangus showed an interesting 80-82 MPH sweeping slider. Thrown to both RHH and LHH, this pitch generated whiffs in and out of the zone. Mangus threw it mostly late in counts, and it’s something I’d personally like to him throw it more often in the future. With an upper-half heavy delivery and two-pitch mix, Mangus looks like he’d be a good fit in the bullpen, but with the development of a third pitch, you may see him get a chance to start. Mangus looks like he'll be a reliable weapon out of the Navarro bullpen in 2023, and in Norman in 2024.
Sam Gerth, RHP, Navarro
Another physical RHP, the DBU commit Gerth features a higher effort rotational delivery, creating a three-quarters slot that allows him to get heavy sink on his 90-93, T94 MPH heater. His command may limit how this pitch plays, as the control over command profile put him behind in many counts. When he didn’t have a great feel for his heater, Gerth went to his best offering, his 80-83 MPH sweeper. One of the better breaking pitches of the tournament, Gerth threw this to both LHH and RHH, buckling the knees of both and garnering whiffs in the zone. While he didn’t throw any changeups, and elected sliders over changeups to LHH, his three-quarter slot gives him a chance to turn over a changeup in the future, though homing in his fastball sights might be higher on the priority list. Regardless, Gerth looks like he’ll get plenty of punchouts with this sinker/slider combo.
Tanner Reaves, MIF, Blinn
An LSU commit, Reaves is a steady force in the Blinn lineup and infield. At the plate, Reaves has a smooth, controlled swing. He covers the plate well and features a bit of loft geared for line drives, though did struggle to get to fastballs up in the zone. Reaves doesn’t have eye-popping bat speed, but enough to handle velocity and shoot gaps for doubles. He often looked up the middle and other way, but what impressed me most about Reaves was his approach and feel for the strike zone. Reaves consistently was patient and worked counts in his favor on multiple occasions and laid off secondaries looking to garner a chase. Reaves got innings at both second and short, not showing crazy range, but solid hands and average arm strength. He’s likely more suited for second, but at the college level, he could fill in at short in a pinch and could likely handle third if needed as well. Reaves isn’t a great runner or features any loud tools, but an all-around solid ball player with a good floor. There’s still some room for Reaves to add strength and explosiveness, so a team may take a chance on him on Day 3 of the draft, but should he make it to Baton Rouge, he’ll be a nice consistent player for the Tigers.
Brendan Sweeney, RHP, Blinn
At 6’6”, 200 lbs, Sweeney is an imposing force on the mound. With a tall and fall delivery and high three-quarters arm action, Sweeney creates a tough vertical angle on hitters. Pair this with his heavy sinker, and you have a ground ball specialist. Up to the mid-90s in the past, Sweeney was 90-91 MPH, and threw a ton of strikes with his fastball, keeping it low in the zone and commanding it well to both sides of the plate, especially the glove side. Sweeney’s best offering was his plus changeup in the low-80s. This pitch tunneled great with his fastball and produced whiffs to both lefties and righties. With more depth than fade, it completely fell off the table and was thrown at the same arm speed as his fastball. He threw some that had straight vertical movement, making me wonder if he was mixing a splitter in as well. Sweeney’s pronation bias has some drawbacks, as he struggled to find a consistent pitch moving to his glove side, throwing a gyro slider at 80 MPH, and an 11-5 curveball at 77 MPH. Sweeney still has room to fill out and has a good chance to throw harder in the future, raising his ceiling even higher. Should he make it to Columbia, he’ll be a great ground ball weapon to have out of the bullpen, with the capabilities of starting.
Bryce Hubbard, C, NWFS
The saying “the best catchers go unnoticed” didn’t apply much to Hubbard this weekend. With runners in scoring position, Hubbard made multiple big blocks on hard-breaking balls. On top of this, the Mississippi State transfer displayed an above-average arm to go with his 2.0 second pop time to nab a runner. A Georgia commit, Hubbard is ultra-physical and strong, and this goes on display in the box as well. With multiple hard contacts, Hubbard also showed great adjustability in his lower half, putting good swings on a few offspeed pitches. Hubbard’s reliability behind the plate should land him plenty of playing time in Athens in 2025, and his bat will be a reliable presence in the middle of the Northwest Florida lineup this season.
Mack Estrada, RHP, NWFS
A freshman at Northwest Florida, Estrada came out firing, sitting 90-94 MPH with a sinking fastball. His best weapon, however, was an 84-85 MPH slider. This pitch flashed plus, with good depth and average sweep. Coming from a high three-quarters slot, this pitch baffled right-handed hitters, generating whiffs in the zone. This pitch was having enough success that Estrada elected to go to it vs left-handed hitters over a changeup. Estrada has room to fill out still at 6’4. Right now, it’s a control over command profile, with a high-effort delivery that he had a hard time repeating. Estrada is still an uncommitted freshman and is only going to get better from here. If he gains consistency in his delivery and develops a reliable third pitch, he’ll have professional teams knocking at his door before he gets a chance to go to a four-year school.
Colin Linder, RHP NWFS
At 6’4”, Linder has a nice build and physicality, being big-chested and broad-shouldered. He did a good job repeating his compact, over-the-top delivery, which resulted in a ton of strikes. At 92-93 MPH, Linder dominated with his fastball. Featuring an intriguing cut ride shape, Linder got plenty of swings under this pitch, as well as called strikes. While the strikes weren’t perfect, he did show the ability to move his fastball to both sides of the plate. Linder’s dominance with his fastball mitigated a need for any secondaries in this outing, though the few he flashed were short, low-80s sliders. Linder, an Arizona State commit is a name to watch this spring. With his loud stuff, he's a bat-missing machine, giving him a chance to be taken on Day 3 of the draft. Should he make it to Tempe, he has a good chance to pitch out of the Sun Devil’s weekend rotation.
Robbie Demetree, 3B Future Stars
At 6’1, 190, Demetree had a solid weekend at Globe Life Field. Showing a solid approach and spitting on multiple secondaries, Demetree hunted fastballs. a few hard contacts, Demetree showed a good ability to not only time up some good fastballs but to also catch them out in front and pull them. While Demetree doesn’t have the best plate coverage, whiffing on some fastballs up in the zone, the power potential is real, putting multiple balls over the fence during BP. At third, Demetree has solid hands, and a plus arm, making throws from behind the bag and on the run. Demetree should put together a good college career at UCF, and with some refinement may hear his name called early in 2026.
Loic Guilmette, LHP, Future Stars
An LHP, FIU commit from Canada, Guilmette stands at 6’4” with plenty of room to fill out. Given his 2-way background (hit multiple HRs in BP), Guilmette had fairly good body control. He struggled to locate his high-80s fastball, but his sweeping slider missed bats against RHH & LHH. He was able to command it to both sides of the plate and threw it in all counts. His slider’s success mitigated a need for a changeup in this game, and the ones he threw weren’t competitive, running out of the zone and not getting any swings. Guilmette’s feel for his slider gives him nice upside, and his cold weather, two-way background gives scouts and coaches plenty to dream on.
Other Players of Note
Lucas Davenport, RHP, Blinn
Davenport was 89-91 MPH with his fastball and didn’t throw many secondaries, but the ones he did throw were excellent. The low-80s changeups he threw completely fell off the table and fooled hitters. He also threw a few sliders, generating whiffs from left-handed hitters. While the fastball doesn’t pop, Davenport’s secondaries should get him D1 looks, and maybe some professional looks.
Juan Villareal, LHP, Odessa
Villareal was only 89-91 MPH with his running fastball, but at 6’7”, showed impressive body control, with feel for a nice changeup and a slurvy breaking ball. There’s certainly more velocity in the tank here and looks like a guy who could be throwing mid-90s in the near future.
Tyler DeJune, INF, NWFS, Troy commit
DeJune played with his hair on fire, being ultra-aggressive, and even tried to steal home once. At the plate, DeJune has a smooth, calm swing and shot balls up the middle and the other way. DeJune is a steady player and a key cog to this NWFS lineup.
DJ Layton, INF, Future Stars
An athletic middle infielder, Layton showed an aggressive all-field approach at the plate. Hunting fastballs early, Layton got his hands to the ball quickly and shot the ball all over the field with a level swing from both sides of the plate. Defensively, he had solid actions and above-average arm strength. He even got an inning on the mound, sitting 90-91 MPH with a nice changeup. The Southern Miss commit will be a great addition to an always-loaded Golden Eagles roster.
Jackson Evers, RHP, NWFS
Evers was 89-91 MPH with a deceptive three-quarters delivery. He commanded his upshooting fastball well, allowing him to miss bats above the belt with it. He flashed a mid-80s slider with good sweep at its best, though its shape and feel were inconsistent. With an improved slider feel, Evers has the looks of a D1 bullpen arm.
Cade Clime, INF, Blinn
Clime has impressive bat speed and power from the right side of the plate. With a rotational swing, Clime had multiple hard contacts to the pull side. The physical third basemen showed solid range and arm strength, making some throws on the run, as well. Clime will be a staple in this Blinn lineup this spring and should get some D1 looks.
Coy DeFury, INF, NWFS, Texas State Commit
Another nice bat from the Blinn lineup, Defury has a sweet stroke from the left side. The Texas State commit showed a steady approach and feel for the strike zone. Defury timed up fastballs and had an XBH on Sunday, shooting a ball into the right-centerfield gap. Defury is a big part of this Blinn lineup and should be a nice addition for Texas State in 2024.
Detroit Tigers 2024 Top 30 Prospect List
Chicago White Sox 2024 Top 30 Prospect List
This Week in Baseball Cards - 1/22 - 1/28
Cleveland Guardians 2024 Top 30 Prospect List
Recca's Fall Ball Notebook Pt. 2: Saint Joseph's
The Saint Joseph’s Hawks 2023 season was both historic and heart-wrenching. Led by long-time Head Coach Fritz Hamburg, the Hawks have clearly turned a corner as a program with the right ingredients for sustainable success. Not only did the Joe’s experience its third consecutive winning season in 2023, Coach Hamburg led the team to its first-ever Atlantic 10 regular season championship. Atlantic 10 coaches picked Hamburg for 2023 A10 coach of the year, and he was further honored by the Mid-Atlantic Scouts Association as their selection for 2023 coach of the year. The program has gradually developed into a yearly conference title contender and it looks like the 2024 season will continue that trend. On top of the collegiate success, the team is finding and producing pro-level talent at an expanding rate. Catcher Andrew Cossetti was a 2022 11th-round pick by the Twins, while outfielder Brett Callahan was a 13th-round pick last July; those two draft picks are the start of a trend for the Hawks. After seeing Joe’s this fall on ‘Scout Day,’ I can safely say that more draft selections are on the table for both the 2024 and 2025 drafts.
*Saint Joseph’s Head Baseball Coach Fritz Hamburg (center) accepts the award for 2023 Coach of the Year by the Mid-Atlantic Scouts Association; November, 2023.
Conference: Atlantic 10
2023 Record: 28-24 | A10 Regular Season Champions
Head Coach: Fritz Hamburg | 16th year
Top Prospect ‘24 Draft: Ryan Cesarini, OF
Top Prospect ‘25 Draft: Ryan Weingartner, SS
It wasn’t the start or finish Coach Hamburg and his team were hoping for. The 2023 Hawks struggled out of the gate with a 1-7 start, and after a mid-April loss to Saint Louis, the team was staring at a 12-18 record. Following that loss, Joe’s went on an eight-game win streak and closed out the regular with an improbable 15-3-1 (yes, there was a tie) run that won them the A10 regular season crown. Unfortunately, the team was bounced from the tournament after three games, which included an 8-23 loss to Saint Louis and finally a 10-15 loss to Dayton. Saint Louis and Dayton were able to capitalize on Joe’s inconsistent pitching staff, which was an area of concern for the majority of the 2023 season. Coach Hamburg brought in accomplished Army pitching coach Jeremy Hileman to help bolster things on that side of the ball, and the staff looks improved on paper. While pitching, especially the relief corps, will be the biggest question mark for the 2024 team, Joe’s will also need to restructure their lineup and fill some roles offensively after a few notable departures.
The Hawks figure to have an experienced and productive offense, with five returnees who either logged an OBP over .400 or slugged double-digit homers in 2023. However, Joe’s will be losing a healthy dose of power after the departures of OF Brett Callahan (Tigers), INF Nate Thomas, and SS Luca Trigiani (now with William & Mary), all of whom recorded an ISO above .220 while combining for 28 long balls last spring. After getting an up close and personal view during St. Joseph’s scout day, several hitters looked equipped to replace that lost production. Because it was scout day, most of the action was focused on draft-eligible players, but a quality group of underclassmen made strong impressions as well. Overall, the offense for Coach Hamburg’s group looks strong on paper and will be a driving force toward a potential repeat performance as A10 regular season champs.
The Hawks' offense will be driven by a trio of Ryans, outfielders Ryan Cesarini and Ryan Picollo, as well as shortstop Ryan Weingartner. This triumvirate combined for 68 extra-base hits and 28 homers last spring, and I think they’re a good bet to surpass those totals in 2024. Let’s start with Ryan Cesarini. The junior from Archibald, PA, led the A10 conference in batting last season (.392) and finished third in OPS (1.088). He enters 2024 as the Hawks’ top draft prospect thanks to a strong track record of performance and impressive tools. Cesarini doesn’t offer much in the way of physical projection, listed at 5’10-205 with a stocky, filled-out frame. Jared Dupere, a 13th-round draft pick out of Northeastern by the Giants in 2021, is a solid body comp for Cesarini, but Cesarini has surprising athleticism and quick actions on the diamond. On scout day, Cesarini showed phenomenal speed with a 60-yard dash time just above 6.40 and home-to-first times in the 4.10-4.20 range. It’s unusual to see plus-level speed from a player with this kind of body; Dupere certainly didn’t display that kind of quickness. Perhaps a better physical comparison for Cesarini (and an admittedly unfair one) is Blue Jays outfielder Daulton Varsho.
At the plate, the lefty-hitting Cesarini has a crouched, compact stance with his hands tucked in tightly behind his helmet. Instead of a traditional stride, he rotates his front knee inward and points the toe of his foot directly into the ground before dropping back down and rotating swiftly into contact. He has quick, adjustable hands and plenty of bat speed to impact the ball on contact. It’s not the most athletic-looking swing, and it’s definitely unorthodox, but Cesarini has a special feel for making contact, which is aided by above-average plate discipline. Cesarini’s raw power teeters right near the above-average to-average line. He’s capable of turning on balls from the belt down for home run contact, which he showcased on a no-doubt blast during a simulated game. I’ll need additional looks before I’m able to make an honest evaluation of his defensive ability. You’d think Cesarini would be a capable centerfielder, given his speed and athleticism, but he split time between left field and DH last spring and only played the corners this summer in the NECBL. We’ll see how he’s deployed moving forward, but as of now, Cesarini has the potential to be a mid-to-late day two draft pick (rounds 6-10) based on what I’ve seen, though I wouldn’t be surprised if he were popped early on day three like Brett Callahan was last July.
Joining Cesarini in the outfield is senior Ryan Picollo, whose 6’4-225 frame stands as a stark contrast to Cesarini's. Picollo has a sturdy, rangy build with a good mixture of athleticism and strength. Despite solid power production last spring (10 HR, .227 ISO), Picollo had a difficult time getting the bat on the ball, as he struck out 55 times in 203 plate appearances. Picollo’s final line of .238/.292/.465 is emblematic of his issues maintaining a consistent approach. When Picollo avoids chasing pitches out of the zone and stays short to the ball, there’s big-time thump and above-average power to his pull side. While Picollo isn’t a burner, he’ll show solid average speed that is more noticeable on the defensive side of the ball. He’s a steady defender with quality arm strength that makes him a dependable option in right field. Picollo showed both the good and the ugly during scout day, with a rocket line drive double to left field but also in-zone whiffs on fastballs. While he may not clear up the rough edges of his game, Picollo possesses the tools and experience to take a step forward and settle in as a much-needed offensive catalyst for the Hawks in 2024. Finally, here’s a fun fact about Picollo: his father, JJ Picollo, oversees baseball operations for the Kansas City Royals as executive vice president and general manager.
The final Ryan set to lead the offense is quite likely the most important. Ryan Weingartner quickly secured the starting second base job during his freshman year and ended the 2024 campaign with a .323/.401/.531 line, which included 10 homers and 17 stolen bases. Not only will Coach Hamburg and company ask Weingartner to build on that breakout debut offensively, but they’ll also ask him to hop over to the other side of the second base bag to hold down shortstop. Weingartner looked the part at short during my initial look, but I’ll need to see how things play out at full game speed this spring to determine his long-term outlook.
An A10 All-Rookie team selection, Weingartner is far from imposing at the plate with a wiry, 5’11-185 build, but he more than makes up for it with a quick bat, uphill swing path, and a “passive-aggressive” approach. He showed an easy, confident swing during BP and had two hard-hit balls during the simulated game. A follow-up performance this spring and summer (he’s playing for the Harwich Mariners on the Cape) could vault him into the mid-day two conversation for the 2025 draft.
Looking beyond the Ryan’s, the Hawks have a couple more promising power options in corner infielder Owen Petrich and catcher Carter Jagiela. Petrich is a transfer portal addition from Delaware where he received minimal playing time the past two years. The 6’2-215 Petrich is a physical corner bat who played third base on scout day. At the plate, Petrich displayed above-average pop from the right side but struggled to handle spin during this brief look. He is highly capable of punishing mistakes, which he demonstrated by hitting multiple hard-hit balls, including the opposite-field homer seen in the clip below. Meanwhile, Jagiela is entering his sophomore year, and his size (6’4-220) and physicality immediately stand out. Jagiela has plus-level power to his pull side with an uphill swing path. He’ll need to iron out some things behind the plate, but he has plenty of arm strength for the catcher position. Jagiela should have plenty of time to hone his craft, as his likely role will be as a backup to senior Justin Igoe. Igoe played in only seven games as an underclassman, but he made up for lost time in 2023 as the full-time starter, finishing the year with a respectable .304/.411/.432 line. With a shorter, stout build, Igoe is a patient hitter with average power and an up-the-middle approach. He only hit three homers last year, but he adds length to the lineup and racks up quality at-bats. Igoe gets the job done behind the plate, though his arm is fringy, which led to an 85% success rate for base stealers last season.
Petrich Packs A
Punch
Delaware transfer Owen Petrich will look to revitalize St. Joseph’s power production in 2024.
Because my viewing came on scout day, the majority of the action involved draft-eligible players, so it was difficult to get a feel for the Hawks class of freshmen. With that said, outfielders Darius Adkins and Joey Gale are intriguing athletes, while middle infielder Tim Dickinson was a consistent performer at Malvern Prep, one of the top high school programs in the state of Pennsylvania. Playing time is likely to be tough to come by in 2024 for this crop of newcomers, but Coach Hamburg and his staff have a knack for getting timely production from their freshmen when needed.
On paper, Coach Hamburg has plenty of options to fill out his weekend rotation. RHP Domenic Picone, RHP Will McCausland, and LHP Ryan DeSanto led the Hawks in starts and innings pitched a year ago, and all three will return in 2024. McCausland and DeSanto were each selected for the A10 All-Rookie Team and remained sharp over the summer in the New England Collegiate Baseball League and the Valley League, respectively. Neither pitched on scout day, but I did see DeSanto last fall and tabbed him as an under-the-radar draft prospect for 2025. The sophomore duo won’t light up radar guns (upper 80s/low 90s in ‘23), but they have performed in games, and both have uniquely interesting traits under the surface when taking a peak at their trackman data. McCausland’s fastball has swing-and-miss traits thanks to a low vertical approach angle, a low release height, and good extension in his delivery. He also has a trio of decent secondary options that he can land for strikes consistently, with the slider showing the most potential of the bunch. DeSanto is about as funky as it gets, with a crossfire finish to his delivery and an extreme over-the-top arm slot. He gets elite IVB on his high spin fastball, which gets on hitters in a hurry with his size and deception. DeSanto will flash a bat-missing curve with 12-6 action and an intriguing changeup with good arm-side fade. Picone was also pitching as Hawk for the first time in 2023 after spending the previous three years at Rhode Island. He’s one of the smaller pitchers you’ll see at the D1 level, standing in at 5’8-180, but he had a respectable 4.50 ERA across 70 innings last spring. His fastball sits in the 88-92 range and plays well up in the strike zone, while his mid-80s cutter/slider hybrid is his best putaway offering.
Junior RHP Matt McShane is another arm that could be a starting option for Coach Hamburg. McShane thrived (2.40 ERA) as a multi-inning reliever as a freshman, but his stuff was down when I saw him last fall. That carried over to the spring, and his performance (5.46 ERA, 4.9 K/9, 10.9 H/9) took a step back as a result. McShane was much better (19.1 IP, 1.40 ERA, 11.6 K/9) with Bourne on the Cape this summer, and the average velocity on his fastball (92-93 MPH) and both breaking balls increased significantly compared to the spring.
McShane was the first pitcher to take the mound on scout day but didn’t face live hitters. The fastball was lively in the 90-92 range, coming from a high slot and a good, flat angle. McShane complimented the fastball with a slider that sat around 82 MPH, an upper-70s curveball, and what appeared to be a low-80s changeup. McShane threw some above-average sliders with late gyro-movement that he commanded better to his glove side. McShane did a really good of tunneling the fastball and slider, increasing the effectiveness of each pitch. He had trouble getting a consistent feel for the curve and changeup, though the curve did flash some sharp vertical break. Given McShane’s build at 6’3-215, his ability to spin multiple breaking balls, and his history of pitching multiple innings at a time, McShane has some traits to serve him in a weekend starter role. However, there’s some effort during his release, and there have been issues maintaining the quality of his stuff, which could indicate a late-inning relief role in the future. At his best, McShane appears to be the team's top draft prospect for 2024, but we’ll need to see how he holds up this spring.
Junior RHP Luke Gabrysh is a wild card for this Joe’s pitching staff. Standing at a lean and projectable 6’3-200, Gabrysh possesses the size and arsenal of a quality starting option. However, his effectiveness has been limited as he’s struggled to throw strikes, evident in his elevated walk rate of 20.4% through 27.1 career innings. On scout day, Gabrysh showcased impressive velocity, sitting consistently at 92-94 with his fastball and touching 95 MPH once. His go-to secondary was a 78-82 MPH slider, boasting remarkable raw spin (2,700+ RPM) and horizontal movement. Additionally, his mid-80s changeup showed plenty of promise with good arm-side movement and depth. Gabrysh allowed hard contact on multiple belt-high fastballs over the middle as he struggled to consistently command the pitch in the zone. The command of his secondaries appeared superior to his fastball command in this brief appearance. Overall, it’s one of the better three-pitch mixes on the Hawks staff in terms of raw stuff, but the ability to execute remains an open question. Regardless, Gabrysh provides some high-upside depth for the rotation with the kind of loud stuff you could envision closing out games. If things click for Garbrysh this spring, he’d make for a dynamic weapon down the stretch for St. Joseph’s and would likely fetch draft interest on day 3.
While the weekend rotation boasts a surplus of seasoned arms, the bullpen is marked by uncertainty. A notable portion of the relievers returning from last spring finished the year with ERAs north of 9.00. Gabrysh certainly has the raw ability to help bolster the pen if that’s where he ends up, and that’s also true for righty Alec Rodriguez, who is back as a grad student. Rodriguez looked poised for a breakout season last spring but was unable to fill the zone enough to be a reliable option. He’s a good athlete with a high-effort delivery and a slingy arm action that can be difficult to repeat. Rodriguez’s heater has a lot of movement with both riding and running life, which may actually be a contributing factor to his control issues. The velocity on his fastball remained solid as he averaged 92 MPH (max 95) and touched 94 MPH multiple times. His best pitch is a wipeout slider in the low 80s that generates well above-average whiff rates. Rodriguez had a decent changeup last spring that he used against lefty batters, and I thought I saw a couple of cutters at 87 MPH during this outing, which I believe would be a new pitch. As with Garbrysh, there’s no doubt Rodriguez possesses the repertoire to be a high-leverage relief option, but a significant improvement to his 2023 walk rate (18.7%) is required. RHP Colin Yablonski is a grad transfer from Coastal Carolina who sat 90-92 MPH on scout day with an above-average curveball in the upper 70s. He’s shown a little more velocity in the past, so he could just be warming up. Yet another grad year righty is Mike Picollo, who was an unsigned 33rd-round draft pick by the Mets in 2018 and is also the older brother of Ryan Picollo. He’s a low/side slot righty with a mid-to-upper 80s fastball and a late-breaking slider that should be tough on right-handed bats. He hasn’t had much success at the college level, but he did a great job repeating his funky delivery on scout day. Senior David Owsik displayed two quality secondaries, a 78-79 MPH sweeper and an 80 MPH changeup, complementing an 88 MPH fastball. While I didn’t see freshman RHP Luke Parise take the mound, his development is worth tracking. Listed as both a pitcher and catcher, Parise is a good athlete who receives high praise for his competitiveness and makeup.
Undoubtedly, the bullpen stands as a potential Achilles' heel for St. Joseph's in 2024. However, the depth of diverse options and present arm talent suggest that a reversal of fortunes is on the table. All in all, Coach Hamburg’s club is well-equipped to secure a conference title and a trip to regionals in 2024.
This Week in Baseball Cards - 1/15 - 1/21
The Creation of Predictive Stuff Metrics: Unveiling the pSTFERA Suite
2024 MLB Draft: Top 100 College Prospects
Director’s Note: All Draft Day Ages for players are pinned to July 14, 2024, our guess as to when the MLB Draft will start. The league has not announced the dates for the 2024 MLB Draft and once revealed, we will adjust approximate ages to that date.
The 2024 Top 100 High School board can be found here. Once the season is in full bloom, we will begin to integrate a single list, starting off with 200 prospects. As always, our 2024 Prospect Footage can be found here.
1. 2B/SS JJ Wetherholt, West Virginia
Height: 5’10
Weight: 190
B/T: L/R
Draft Day Age: 21 yr 10 mo
Wetherholt's bat has a chance to be very special, as the mix of pure hit and power tools profile as one of the best in the entire country. Wetherholt posts elite contact rates and seldom whiffs with impressive feel for the barrel. It's a compact and powerful swing from the left side of the plate, showcasing very quick hands and loud bat speed. Wetherholt utilizes the whole field to his advantage and will punish the gaps with legitimate above-average to plus power, which also plays well to his pull side. It's a truly special bat. He's played at third base and second base the past two years, though he's been given a chance at shortstop this fall and the reports are promising. The range is there to handle the position, though the arm strength needs some improvement. He's a solid runner and knows how to be a menace on the basepaths, as well, recording 36 stolen bases in 2023.
2. 1B Nick Kurtz, Wake Forest
Height: 6’5
Weight: 235
B/T: L/L
Draft Day Age: 21 yr 4 mo
Coming in at 6'5, 235lbs, Nick Kurtz is a monster of a human being at the plate. The size, strength, and power Kurtz possesses is a scout's dream. The Wake Forest first baseman has a scary good offensive profile. He is going to draw his fair share of walks due to his patience at the plate while also hitting for massive power thanks to his near 70-grade pop. On top of that, he's got a well advanced approach at the plate and is able to use the entire field. Shockingly for his size, he is fairly athletic and can more than hold his own at first base. He's one of the best defenders at first base and easily grades as a plus defender. Kurtz is a likely frontrunner to be the 2024 ACC Player of the Year and should be providing plenty of offense as the anchor for the Demon Deacons lineup. He has the makings of becoming a force in a big league lineup and will likely be a fast riser through the minors.
3. 2B Travis Bazzana, Oregon State
Height: 6’0
Weight: 199
B/T: L/R
Draft Day Age: 21 yr 10 mo
An import from Australia, Bazzana's overall toolset is ridiculously impressive. He's put up incredible numbers in his two years at Oregon State, slashing .340/.463/.549 across two seasons in Corvallis with elite bat-to-ball skills and plate discipline. He's a really tough out at the plate, rarely expanding the zone and he's got an incredible eye, racking up walks aplenty. His spray chart is a thing of beauty, utilizing the entire field with a compact, line drive swing with a ton of bat speed that is meant to do serious damage. It's above-average juice at the present and most of it plays to his pull side, but he's shown an ability to hammer the ball to the opposite field gap. Bazzana is also an incredible runner, posting plus run times on a consistent basis. He's primarily been a second baseman up to this point, though there's a chance we see him at shortstop in 2024. He's got enough athleticism and twitch to have solid range there, though his arm is nothing more than average. Either way you draw it up, this is a potentially elite bat with suitable defense up the middle.
4. RHP Chase Burns, Wake Forest
Height: 6’4
Weight: 195
B/T: R/R
Draft Day Age: 21 yr 5 mo
Burns is an electric factory on the bump. The Wake Forest transfer is a bulldog type on the mound and he exudes all the confidence you want to see in a pitcher on the mound. He isn't afraid to go right after batters with his electric fastball. What is an elite two-pitch mix, he sits in the upper-90s with significant life to the fastball and pairs it with a diabolical upper-80s/low-90s slider that he can manipulate the shape of. He also isn't afraid to reach back on his fastball for a little extra and can get it up to 101-102 mph. He's been working on a curveball and a splitter, flashing potential, though he doesn't rely on either heavily. His command can waiver at times, but when he is locked in, he can paint a masterpiece. Even with the slight command woes, the stuff is elite and it will be interesting to see what the Wake Forest pitching lab can do to elevate his already incredible arsenal to the next level. He is the best arm in this class.
5. 1B/of Charlie Condon, Georgia
Height: 6’6
Weight: 211
B/T: R/R
Draft Day Age: 21 yr 3 mo
The reigning SEC Freshman of the Year, Condon's unexpected emergence was a welcome sight. After redshirting his first year on campus, Condon exploded onto the scene with a .386/.484/.800 slash line and 25 home runs in 56 games. Condon has a towering, physical frame at 6'6, 211 pounds with plenty of strength throughout his body and there's quite a bit of projection to it still. Condon has plus-plus raw power to all fields and got to it often in 2023, posting healthy exit velocities and even getting into the 110-115 MPH range. It's a ton of bat speed and very quick hands with the barrel exploding through the zone with little effort. There's some hitterish traits with Condon, as he has solid bat-to-ball skills, though he does have his struggles with spin. Defensively, Condon has enough speed and athleticism to handle a corner outfield spot, though if he outgrows the position, he can handle first base. The bat would have to continue to perform in that case and that's the selling point right now.
6. OF Vance Honeycutt, North Carolina
Height: 6’3
Weight: 205
B/T: R/R
Draft Day Age: 21 yr 1 mo
Finding guys with five tool potential is a tough task, but Honeycutt has the potential to be that type of player. Honeycutt showed plenty of improvements in the strikeout department in 2023, dropping the strikeout rate significantly, though that came with the price of production. Nonetheless, Honeycutt has game-changing tools. There's plenty of bat speed from the right side of the plate and there's potentially plus power that plays to his pull side and he'll hit the gaps to show off his blazing speed. The swing-and-miss has toned down and he rarely chases, which is promising for the hit tool. If everything comes together in 2024, there's potential for an above-average hit tool here. He's a lock to stick in center field long term, as his plus speed gives him exceptional range and he'll make highlight reel plays on a consistent basis. There's a strong arm here, as well. If everything clicks, there's serious 1-1 potential.
7. SS/OF Seaver King, Wake Forest
Height: 6’0
Weight: 190
B/T: R/R
Draft Day Age: 21 yr 2 mo
One of the funnest development stories to follow, Seaver King has made his way to Wake Forest after playing last year at Division II Wingate. He was quite undersized coming out of high school which only earned him the Wingate offer, but he's grown a bit since then and found his way into a gig with what might be one of the best college teams going into the 2024 season. King has a robust line-drive approach at the plate with tons of bat speed and has the ability to use the entire field to go along with very good exit velocities, getting up to 111 MPH this fall. King doesn't strikeout often and gets a lot of barrel to ball, but he also doesn't walk a ton either and the chase rates are a bit too high. If he can improve the discipline in 2024 and continue to blast the baseball, he'll be a certified top fifteen pick. He's rather twitchy in the field and can play a myriad of positions for Wake Forest this spring, including center field.
8. RHP Brody Brecht, Iowa
Height: 6’4
Weight: 225
B/T: R/R
Draft Day Age: 21 yr 9 mo
Brecht may have the highest upside of any arm in this loaded college class and he's lit up Stuff+ models with some of the loudest stuff in the college landscape. Brecht has undergone some mechanical tweaks since his high school days, most notably being a shortened arm action that has given him more deception. It's a very quick arm with excellent athleticism, as well. He's gotten up to 101 MPH during starts in 2023, holding upper-90s velocity well throughout his starts, accuring whiffs at a high rate despite suboptimal vertical carry. The slider is the real deal, showing true double-plus potential with hellacious bite. It'll display shorter break with late lateral movement and he's shown an ability to land it for strikes when the fastball command is out of whack. He's tinkered with a low-90s change-up and a low-80s curveball, but he's primarily just had to use the FB-SL combination thus far. The high walk rate and command woes have been the big thing holding Brecht back, though he did show improved fastball command down the stretch for the Hawkeyes. He's stepped away from football and will be focusing solely on pitching moving forward.
9. 1B/LHP Jac Caglianone, Florida
Height: 6’5
Weight: 245
B/T: L/L
Draft Day Age: 21 yr 5 mo
Dubbed the "Ohtani" of college baseball, Caglianone is one of the most well-known players at the amateur level with legitimate two-way potential. There's a bit of rawness to his game, but the power on both sides of the ball are rather impressive. We'll start with the bat, which might have the best power in this entire class. It's easy double-plus right now with extremely quick hand speed and torque, generating a ton of bat speed and all fields power. He's producing some of the loudest exit velocities in the country as a result. The hit tool could use some refinement, as he's rather aggressive and expands the zone frequently. On the defensive side, it's a first-base profile. As an arm, Caglianone has loud stuff, but the command holds him back. The fastball has flirted with triple digits with some life, paired with a bullet-esque slider with solid potential and a bigger bender. The change-up has excellent velocity separation and fading life, boasting a high whiff rate. He's tinkered with his mechanics, becoming more compact this fall, but time will tell how much this helps his command. The jury is still out on if he has to choose one or the other, but the upside on both sides is enticing.
10. OF Mike sirota, Northeastern
Height: 6’3
Weight: 188
B/T: R/R
Draft Day Age: 21 yr
Sirota is about as well-rounded of a hitter as you'll find in college baseball. The Northeastern outfielder possesses a rare combination of discipline, power, and hit ability that is hard to come by at the amateur level. Offensively, he lets the ball get deep in the zone, allowing him to stay back and drive the ball to all fields with authority. He rarely chases pitches out of the zone, drawing plenty of walks in the process. Though he occasionally gets knocked for playing at a mid-major, his performance against high-quality pitching over the last two summers in the Cape Cod League show he can excel with a competition jump and wood bat. His speed allows him to cover a ton of ground in center field, which is where he projects as plus long-term. Sirota's advanced bat combined with his athleticism are what make him a potential first-round pick.