We Simulated The MLB Draft Over Two Dozen Times - Here’s Who Your Team Selected Most Often

With this weekend's MLB Draft quickly approaching every fanbase wants to know who their favorite team is going to select. I can’t in good conscience speak in absolutes regarding who each singular player might be. What I can do is build an MLB Draft Simulator and use the probabilities to find out what players land at specific spots most often. So, that’s what I did. 

I ran the simulator a total of 25 times. For picks 1-39, I’ll name the 3 players who were selected at that pick most often. This should illuminate exactly who fans should look for their team to select during Round 1. This doesn’t mean these will be the exact three guys they pick from. Chaos is the only certainty in the MLB Draft. Simply keep an eye on these players in these ranges.

Round 1:

1. Pittsburgh Pirates

• Dylan Crews, LSU, OF

• Paul Skenes, LSU, P

• Max Clark, Franklin Community, OF

Chalk. All signs point to these three players being the pool being picked in this spot. Barring a Wyatt Langford surprise, these are your guys.

2. Washington Nationals 

• Paul Skenes, LSU, P

• Wyatt Langford, Florida, OF

• Dylan Crews, LSU, OF

More chalk. Nothing groundbreaking here. Nats’ find themselves with the player that doesn’t get selected 1st.

3. Detroit Tigers

• Wyatt Langford, Florida, OF

• Paul Skenes, LSU, P

• Dylan Crews, LSU, OF

More of the same. Although they are at the mercy of the other two teams, the Tigers likely walk away with one of the top three players in the class.

4. Texas Rangers

• Walker Jenkins, South Brunswick, OF

• Max Clark, Franklin Community, OF

• Wyatt Langford, Wyatt Langford, OF

Which prep - Clark vs. Jenkins? Does a premier college player fall?

5. Minnesota Twins

• Rhett Lowder, Wake Forest, P

• Walker Jenkins, South Brunswick, OF

• Hurston Waldrep, Florida, P

The first true wild card. Our sim likes the Twins taking a pitcher or a prep. 

6. Oakland Athletics

• Max Clark, Franklin Community, OF

• Kyle Teel, Virginia, C 

• Noble Meyer, Jesuit, P

Middle-of-the-diamond premier players. Athletes and high-upside arms. 

7. Cincinnati Reds

• Jacob Gonzalez, Ole Miss, SS

• Chase Dollander, Tennessee, P 

• Jacob Wilson, Grand Canyon, SS

More middle-of-the-diamond Reds’ prospects? More up-and-coming arms to the stable? 

8. Kansas City Royals

• Arjun Nimmala, Strawberry Crest, SS

• Rhett Lowder, Wake Forest, P

• Blake Mitchell, Sinton, C

The rebuild continues. High upside and toolsy preps.

9. Colorado Rockies

• Jacob Gonzalez, Ole Miss, SS

• Blake Mitchell, Sinton, C

• Noble Meyer, Jesuit, P

A healthy mix. Plenty of places to supplement within the organization. College bat, prep bat, prep pitcher. 

10. Miami Marlins

• Max Clark, Franklin Community, OF

• Walker Jenkins, South Brunswick, OF

• Chase Dollander, Tennessee, P

The prep stopgap. Unlikely either high ends prep gets to this spot but even more unlikely they bypass Miami. 

11. Los Angeles Angels

• Noble Meyer, Jesuit, P

• Kyle Teel, Virginia, C 

• Arjun Nimmala, Strawberry Crest, SS

Feels like a team that catches the premier talent that falls to them. Meyer, Teel, and Nimmala all figure to go earlier but Angels would love any of them.

12. Arizona Diamondbacks

• Enrique Bradfield Jr., Vanderbilt, OF

• Brayden Taylor, TCU, 3B

• Tommy Troy, Stanford, SS/3B

Impact college players to supplement a rising core of young stars. 

13. Chicago Cubs

• Tommy Troy, Stanford, SS/3B

• Arjun Nimmala, Strawberry Crest, SS

• Jacob Wilson, Grand Canyon, SS

Premier athletes in the middle of the diamond. Don’t be surprised if a college arm pops up either. 

14.  Boston Red Sox

• Jacob Gonzalez, Ole Miss, SS

• Hurston Waldrep, Florida, P

• Chase Dollander, Tennessee, P

A classic Red Sox move. The California high school shortstop. Only this time he went to Ole Miss for three years. Or more high-octane arms to a system that could use some. 

15. Chicago White Sox

• Chase Davis, Arizona, OF

• Aiden Miller, JW Mitchell, 3B

• Walker Martin, Eaton, SS

Another wild card. Tons of ways they could go. 

16. San Francisco Giants

• Colin Houck, Parkview, SS

• Bryce Eldridge, James Madison HS, 1B/P

• Walker Martin, Eaton, SS

High upside prep players. While sticking with the theme of potential two-way players. 

17. Baltimore Orioles

• Jacob Wilson, Grand Canyon, SS

• George Lombrad Jr., Gulliver Prep, SS

• Charlee Soto, Reborn Christian, P

A multitude of routes the Orioles can go here. The simulator likes up-the-middle types plus prep arms.

18. Milwaukee Brewers

• Walker Martin, Eaton, SS

• Brayden Taylor, TCU, 3B

• George Lombard Jr., Gulliver Prep, SS

Impact infielders and athletes. 

19. Tampa Bay Rays

• Hurston Waldrep, Florida, P

• Arjun Nimmala, Strawberry Crest, SS

• Walker Martin, Eaton, SS

One of the teams who truly loves the chaos of the draft. Could see them go a ton of directions.

20. Toronto Blue Jays

• Brice Matthews, Nebraska, 3B/2B

• Thomas White, Phillips Academy, P

• Nolan Schanuel, FAU, IF

Some new names that we haven’t seen yet. While potentially continuing a tradition of Florida amateurs. 

21. St. Louis Cardinals

• Blake Mitchell, Sinton, C

• Tommy Troy, Stanford, 3B/SS

• Colin Houck, Parkview, SS

The high makeup player. Bucks the trend of first round arms in this case. 

22. Seattle Mariners

• Brayden Taylor, TCU, 3B

• Aiden Miller, JW Mitchell, 3B

• Bryce Eldridge, James Madison HS, 1B/P

The beginning of the Mariners’ draft of chaos. 3 picks in the top 30. They can mold this in any way they want. 

23. Cleveland Guardians

• Chase Davis, Arizona, OF

• Bryce Eldridge, James Madison HS, 1B/P

• Kevin McGonigle, Monsignor Bonner, 2B

Premier athletes and moldable arms. It’s what the Guardians do. 

24. Atlanta Braves

• Noble Meyer, Jesuit, P

• Enrique Bradfield Jr., Vanderbilt, OF

• Nolan Schanuel, FAU, IF

Prep arm or some guys who could fly through a system to aid one of the best cores in baseball.

25. San Diego Padres

• Colin Houck, Parkview, SS

• Walker Martin, Eaton, SS

• Kevin McGonigle, Monsignor Bonner, 2B

Preller doing Preller things. Prep, Prep, Prep. 

26. New York Yankees

• Matt Shaw, Maryland, 2B/3B

• Ross Cholowsky, Hamilton, SS

• Brock Wilken, Wake Forest, 3B

College hitters who have had massive success. And even a couple from the east coast. 

27. Philadelphia Phillies

• Charlee Soto, Reborn Christian, P

• Cam Johnson, IMG Academy, P

• Cade Kuehler, Campbell, P

They love their prep arms. They’ve been successful before, that doesn’t change here. 

28. Houston Astros

• Colton Ledbetter, Mississippi State, OF

• Yohandy Morales, Miami, 3B

• Adrian Santana, Doral Academy Charter, SS

High-impact college bats who aren’t far away. Or another Astros middle infielder adding power as we speak.

PPP & Competitive Balance & Comp Rounds

29. Seattle Mariners

• Alex Clemmey, Bishop Hendricken, P

• Yohandy Morales, Miami, 3B

• Colton Ledbetter, Mississippi State, OF

30. Seattle Mariners

• Bryce Eldridge, James Madison HS, 1B/P

• Aiden Miller, JW Mitchell, 3B

• Ross Cholowsky, Hamilton, SS

31. Tampa Bay Rays

• Yohandy Morales, Miami, 3B

• Brock Wilken, Wake Forest, 3B

• Colt Emerson, John Glenn, SS

32. New York Mets

• Thomas White, Phillips Academy, P

• Brock Wilken, Wake Forest, 3B

• Adrian Santana, Doral Academy Charter, SS

33. Milwaukee Brewers

• Brock Wilken, Wake Forest, 3B

• Yohandy Morales, Miami, 3B

• Nolan Schanuel, FAU, IF

34. Minnesota Twins

• Colt Emerson, John Glenn, SS

• George Lombard Jr., Gulliver Prep, SS

• Dillon Head, Homewood Flossmoor, OF

35. Miami Marlins

• Jackson Baumeister, FSU, P

• Colt Emerson, John Glenn, SS

• LuJames Groover III, NC State, IF

36. Los Angeles Dodgers

• Eric Bitonti, Aquinas, SS

• Dillon Head, Homewood Flossmoor, OF

• Colton Ledbetter, Mississippi State, OF

37. Detroit Tigers

• Brice Matthews, Nebraska, 2B/3B

• Brock Wilken, Wake Forest, 3B

• Travis Honeyman, Boston College, OF

38. Cincinnati Reds

• Cade Kuehler, Campbell, P

• Kendall George, Atascocita, OF

• Tanner Witt, Texas, P

39. Oakland Athletics

• Adrian Santana, Doral Academy Charter, SS

• Jack Hurley, Virginia Tech, OF

• LuJames Groover III, NC State, IF

This was simply a fun exercise to put our simulator to use and give it a little more time in the sun before Sunday rolls around and the real thing takes off. Fans want to know who they should be eyeing up for their team to grab and this piece aids in that process. And that isn’t an excuse to hit up Prospects Live on socials if the player your team selects isn’t found within the three players for that pick. As I mentioned, the only sure thing on Sunday is that chaos will ensue. 

If you want to try the simulator for yourself, you can click right here. 

If you want to learn more about any of the potential players, right here. 

Make sure to follow all of Prospects Live’s coverage over the next week as we cover all 20 rounds and beyond!

Draft Day Scenarios - Cincinnati Reds

As part of a new series accompanying the launch of the Prospects Live Mock Draft Machine, I’ll be highlighting draft day scenarios for a number of teams. What better way to use or new tool then put it to work before July 9th rolls around. To see where to start, I took to Twitter to see what team(s) the readers wanted to see me dive into.

The readers spoke and it felt apropos that the first team I saw mentioned was the much-discussed Cincinnati Reds. Thanks to a strong, young core of players like Jonathan India, Matt McLain, Spencer Steer, Hunter Greene, and of course Elly De La Cruz; it appears the buzz around the Redlegs is only intensifying. If you sensed a theme in the names I mentioned regarding the core of the team, you were right. The middle of the infield looks to be crowded for a long, long time. Cruz, India, McLain, Steer, Arroyo, Collier, and Marte are all names who should take the majority of playing time in the middle of the diamond for the foreseeable future.

Could those influence draft day decisions this coming July? We know teams don’t typically draft for Major League positional needs, but in a draft with strong frontline college pitching and stout prep outfielders; you have to wonder if the Cincy decision-makers sense a window creaking open and look to seize the opportunity. No matter what avenue they choose, the picks at hand offer plenty of intrigue.

Let’s set the scene on what the Reds have in this draft, specifically the first five rounds:

Picks:

• 7th overall ($6,275,200)

• 38th overall ($2,255,100)

• 43rd overall ($1,998,200)

• 74th overall ($975,100)

• 105th overall ($640,300)

• 141st overall ($451,100)

Overall, the Reds have the sixth-highest available bonus pool in the league, totaling $13,785,200. So what would likely scenarios be?

Scenario #1

In this simulation, things end up working out on the chalky side. The top five players on the Prospects Live Draft Board get selected in succession to each other, while the Oakland Athletics serve as a bit of a wildcard. Being in a situation where it looks as if they are a few years from playing competitive baseball, they aim for a high-upside, middle-of-the-diamond player in Arjun Nimmala. This allows the Reds to have their choice of the litter in regard to players like Dollander, Lowder, Teel, Meyer, Gonzalez, and Wilson. 

As you can see, acting as the decision maker here, I chose Kyle Teel and paid him the full slot value. Teel is one of the premier college bats in this class, a pure athlete who gets high marks behind the plate. Some even say he plays catcher like a shortstop, which points towards a profile that stays behind the dish. Beyond that, you’re simply buying a high-level bat.  A .418/.484/.673 slash line should tell you all you need to know. 

Later in the draft, we are able to catch one of the prep shortstops as Adrian Santana finds his way down to pick No. 38. Feels as if with the amount of high-level prep SS in this class that one is bound to slip just a touch. We’re able to reign in Santana Jr. at just over slot value. 

With our third selection, we are able to snag a potential frontline starter in Brandon Sproat. The stuff certainly suggests frontline, however, tweaks to the overall profile are needed. The organizational pitching infrastructure in place offers us to trust that the staff can make adjustments with Sproat and turn this into a great pick. The same can be said for Nick Maldonado who we snagged at pick No. 105 after selecting an extra high-upside prep middle infielder in Trent Caraway at 73 because you can never have enough of those. Jake Cunningham rounds out our five picks to offer just a touch of slot relief, but it’s certainly no throwaway. Cunningham possesses tools that are off the charts, putting it all together will be the test. If it clicks, we’re talking big leaguer.

Scenario #2

In this simulation, we catch a falling Max Clark. This is certainly not an outlandish happening. There's a real chance with the chaos of the MLB Draft that one of Jenkins or Clark finds their way to pick No. 7. For as long as this draft class has been talked about, Clark has been tabbed as one of, if not the best talent in the whole class. It’s an otherworldly high school stat line that includes a batting average in the .600s. Clark is more than a basher, it’s tools across the board. Speed, defense, plate discipline - Clark does it all well. Getting this type of upside at a position of need, at this type of value feels like a no-brainer for the Reds. We do have to pay a touch over-slot to make it happen but Clark feels worth it. 

We find a similar profile with Colton Ledbetter at Pick No. 38. However, Ledbetter comes from the college ranks and may not have the sky-high ceiling of Clark -  the profile is semi-reminiscent. Tanner Witt at pick No. 43 follows a similar path to that of Sproat and Maldonado from Scenario 1. Witt lacks the typical track record thanks to missing a large portion of 2023 due to injury but it’s a bet on the traits and pitching development infrastructure. 

Wolters is a prep arm who has a major helium attached to his name right now. Up to 98 MPH, the big-bodied righty is gaining serious steam. If we’re lucky enough to see Wolters fall this far, we likely have to pay up to keep him from honoring his commitment to Arizona. We make it happen and go over-slot for Wolters but bring it back down to earth with the succeeding picks in Carson Roccaforte and Marcus Brown. A couple of guys who have seen major success at high-level college programs. Roccaforte falls in line with the Ledbetter profile and Brown is reminiscent of Trey Faltine, a fellow shortstop and Reds’ selection from 2022.

Conclusion

With the excitement level rising at the major league level, the opportunity within the 2023 Draft should offer just as much excitement for Cincinnati fans. Largely because this draft class is abnormally stout in its’ top fifty prospects. Just so happens the Reds hold three picks in the top 43. It’s an advantageous situation for a team looking to supplement an already young core. Flexibility is paramount in the chaos-filled MLB Draft. Reds’ brass will have plenty of that. 

Who do you think the Reds should target at No. 7?