MLB Draft Prospects Out West | Part 3

Happy draft week! It’s time to put the ribbon on west coast draft coverage and present the top players set to be drafted from the West Coast Conference and the Mountain West Conference. The West Coast Conference boasts a handful of arms that should become solid professionals with a couple of positional players mixed in.

West Coast Conference

Blake Shepardson, RHP, San Francisco

Shepardson didn’t have a strong year, battling fits of control and inconsistency. Still, the raw tools here are undeniable. Shepardson touched 100 this year and typically sits 95-97 with his fastballs. Shepardson can either throw a flatter 4-seam with some run or a less effective 2-seam. Shepardson’s 4-seam fastball is easily plus because of its velocity and above-average run, though the pitch needs to be spotted better.

The 6-foot-5 righty backs his fastballs up with a power slider in the mid-80s, usually 84-86, with a devastating two-plane break. The slider is another easy plus pitch that gives Shepardson substantial pro upside. Expect a team to find themselves a promising relief prospect late on day 2; with development, there’s legit late-inning potential here.

Sam Stuhr, RHP, Portland

With a case as the conference’s best arm, Stuhr features a powerful arsenal capable of dominating games. Though his frame is on the smaller end, Stuhr sits 93-96--touching 98--and gets some low launch on his fastball to make it an above-average offering. Where he’s going to make his money in July is with two average or better breakers. While the slider doesn’t break a ton, it sits 86-89 and can be an overpowering pitch.

Stuhr’s curveball has the upside of being his best pitch. It’s a true north-south breaking ball with limited glove-side break that can get up to 83. The curveball unlocks the ability to better attack left-handed bats and create starter upside. Overall, the arm talent here is great, and it’s fair to assume Stuhr could eventually sit a tick higher with his fastball and the two solid-breaking balls. He may find a taker early on day 2.

Nick Brink, RHP, Portland

As the true leader of the Portland pitching staff, Brink may be a better pro than Stuhr despite less flashy stuff. The 6-foot-2 righty will be 23 later this season and won’t land as highly in the draft, but his developed 4-pitch arsenal gives him legitimate backend upside. Brink sits 91-94 with a metrically standard fastball. It looks like an average offering, but his command of the pitch allows it to be very effective.

Backing it up, Brink’s slider misses a ton of bats as a tight mid-80s offering that he pinpoints away to hitters, and his ability to command the pitch to both sides of the zone is advanced. There’s also a promising curveball here with good drop, but Brink’s changeup ties the profile together and makes him a nightmare for left-handed bats. It’s a super deceptive pitch with excellent arm action and just subtle fade to get plenty of weak contact and mistimed swings. A sum of several quality parts, Brink will surely rise through an organization as a starter.

Spencer Scott, 2B, Portland

Offering one of the best contact (92.6% z-contact rate) and plate discipline (12.2% chase rate) combos in this class, Scott, with his line-drive approach, is sure to contribute in the pros. He’s a well-below-average power guy and a below-average runner, which throws a wrench into the equation, but Scott will be an average defender either at the hot corner or second base.

Likely a day-three option, Scott is sure to run low strikeout rates and quality walk rates and provide good depth to a minor-league lineup with true utility upside.

Dalton Mashore, OF, Saint Mary’s

Mashore is a box checker with few flaws. There’s above-average raw power (106.2 mph 90th EV), swing decisions, and a feel for contact. He’s got it all on the offensive side. Throw in above-average speed, legit capability in center field, and solid twitch in his swing, and the upside is very apparent with Mashore.

Digging for flaws, his swing can get a bit like a chop without much flexibility in his wrists. While his bat path is primed for generating backspin, his barrel accuracy leaves some to be desired, and he frequently gets on top of the baseball. There are also concerns about his ability to handle velocity. All in all, potential 5-tool centerfielders don’t grow on trees, and Mashore profiles to be average or better across the board.

Josh Randall, RHP, San Diego

Likely to be the WCC’s highest-drafted player this year, Randall offers a unique look and profile that assures interest. Throwing from what’s a sidearm slot, Randall sits 92-96 with a pair of fastballs; his primary is a quality sinker with a heavy run that can gear up to 98, while he also throws a 4-seamer with one of the flattest approach angles in the class because of his slot. Both are above-average offerings and will allow Randall to be somewhat splits-proof.

Randall also has a pair of above-average secondaries. The pitch he leans on most heavily is a slider with a heavy drop that can touch 89. He throws a potentially plus power changeup to help him truly dominate left-handed hitters. It’s an upper 80s to low 90s offering with a plus run and some fade that’s difficult to pick up because of his low slot. Having 4 legitimate offerings, pitchabilty, and a low slot makes Randall truly one of a kind in this year’s class and the mix of traits could get him to the back of day 1.

Ariel Armas, C, San Diego

Armas can catch. The 6-foot backstop is agile behind the dish, serving as a premium blocker (credited with 0 passed balls in 2024) with good framing ability and very quick exchanges behind the dish--I’ve clocked low 1.7 pop times. This looks like a plus defender already.

To help his case, Armas brings a capable bat with an 89.5 zone contact rate and a rock-solid 18.4 chase rate. His swing is very compact and short, giving him some certainty as he enters the pros. Armas reads spin and velocity excellently, though he’s not a great fastball hitter. Armas also has real power with a 104.4 90th percentile EV, equating to fringe-average pop. When you least expect it, Armas can get up the line in under 4.3 seconds, giving him a legit average or better speed. It would be shocking if Armas isn’t a solid pro, and there’s legitimate backup catcher potential here or more.

Drake Frize, RHP, San Diego

Frize is uniquely effective despite his limited power and otherwise traditional delivery. Hitters managed just a .559 OPS all year against Frize and his low-power arsenal. His fastball sits 88-91, though it features elite carry to deceive hitters’ eyes. The 23-year-old backs the heater up with a mid-70s curveball and a low-80s changeup.

Frize’s curveball gets an enormous drop and is thrown with intention, making it a solid average pitch. His changeup is a prototypical tempo killer, as he throws it with deception through hard downhill and with a 10 mph difference from his fastball. Frize also reaps the benefits of above-average command and could be a unique senior-sign middle relief prospect because of his three usable pitches and command.

Owen Hackman, RHP, Loyola Marymount

Hackman carries multiple tools to entice clubs with a carrying fastball that gets 21.4 IVB from a 91-93 mph range. It’s an average or better pitch that will keep him afloat in the pros. However, Hackman’s pair of solid breaking balls propel this profile into legit prospect territory.

Hackman’s slider features above-average power, sitting 84-87, topping at 89 with good depth, while his low-80s curveball is a bat-missing north-south offering. There’s a sneaky budding changeup here that has touched 90 with quality fade that should push Hackman to the beginning of day 3.

Seamus Barrett, RHP, Loyola Marymount

Barrett threatens Randall and Stuhr as one of the best arms in this conference, though as a 23-year-old senior sign, he’ll likely slide into the beginning or middle of day 3. It’s a legit mid-90s arm, sitting 93-95 with quality run from his massive 6-foot-7 frame. That pitch will get Barrett drafted because of the unique look.

Barrett stacks a strong profile with his above-average 12-6 curveball. His frame allows him to get great leverage on the pitch, and it’s been unhittable when executed. There’s also a sub-1000 RPM splitter in the mix that misses many bats, though Barrett needs to develop a better feel for the offspeed. A few uncommon characteristics are packed into one prospect here, and Barrett will be one of the more sought-after senior signs.

Other WCC names to keep an eye on:

Preston Howey, RHP, Saint Mary’s

Howey is a reliever at the next level with an average fastball that sits 92-95, touching 97 from a lower slot. He also throws an average slider with depth in the mid-80s. Howey throws strikes and will be one of the first pure relievers off the board.

Brian Duroff, OF, Saint Mary’s

Duroff is a solid, though unspectacular, all-around outfielder. He’s fringe-average or a touch better in most key areas, though he’s a below-average runner and may eventually have to move from the grass.

Austin Smith, OF, San Diego

A well-below-average power player with defensive limitations seems like an odd pro fit, but Smith approaches everything with a solid approach and maximizes his limited power.

Jordan Hamberg, OF, Gonzaga

Currently, a two-way player, Hamburg will only hit at the next level with plus swing decisions and fringe-average power. There’s a potential 1B/DH snag, but he’s a worthy day three prospect.

Sam Biller, OF, Loyola Marymount

Another solid floor, though very low ceiling outfielder, Biller is an above-average defender with above-average speed and enough impact in his bat to get by in the pros, though the hit tool needs refinement.

Blake Hammond, RHP, Santa Clara

Hammond is a rounded pitcher with pitchability as his guiding tool. He mixes three pitches well and can grab 93 with his fastball. It’s his manipulatable breaking ball--sometimes a mid-80s pitch with less drop but more often a low-80s traditional curveball--that makes him a viable pro prospect. Both variations miss bats and barrels.

Mountain West Conference

Dayne Pengelly, RHP, New Mexico

A Pima Community College product, the Albuquerque native returned to his hometown, UNM, for what will be his final collegiate season. The 6-foot-3 throws from a funky low slot and quality pitch characteristics. Pengelly mixes two different fastballs that generate a ton of ground balls by working hard to the armside, especially his 4-seam fastball, relative to what’s typical.

Neither the four-seam or two-seam are particularly effective pitches now because of inconsistent location, but both can get up to 97 and usually sit 92-95. Pengelly throws an average slider with quality depth to back the heaters up. Pengelly has flashed a changeup that could be a tunneling weapon with his fastballs but will require more feel—Pengelly profiles as a day three relief target.

Tommy Hopfe, 1B/OF Fresno State

A switch-hitter with a plus feel for contact from both sides and solid average power, Hopfe is an intriguing day-two option. Hopfe has a muscular build that lends itself to enough raw power to threaten for 15+ homers in the pros and possibly more if he can add more loft to his swing. His zone contact rate of 94.2% will jump out in models, though a chase rate of 28.8%--with extra proclivity to chase secondaries--bring Hopfe’s profile down a notch.

Additionally, Hopfe likely plays first base in the pros, though teams may be willing to try the fringe-average athlete in a corner, where his low-90s arm on the mound may offer additional value.

Brendan O’Sullivan, SS, UNLV

O’Sullivan’s calling card is his defensive prowess at shortstop. His actions are quick and smooth, with extremely polished footwork and above-average range. The glove will carry O’Sullivan through the pros, though he’s no slouch offensively. 

O’Sullivan’s 104.1 mph 90th percentile exit velocity indicates he’s a genuine threat to leave the yard, especially considering his quality bat control and lofty right-handed swing with a high handset. O’Sullivan also has a sound offensive approach with average swing decisions and sees spin extremely well. However, O’Sullivan has some issues catching up to velocity. As a slick-fielding shortstop with a capable bat, the UNLV product will attract attention from late day 2 and early day 3.

Michael Ball, 2B/SS, Nevada

See ball, hit ball is the name of the Nevada infielder’s game. Ball ran a stellar 93.5% zone contact rate this year, and his short bat path indicates that he will continue in the pros. Ball is one of the more aggressive hitters in the class and will not walk much in the pros--he runs extremely high swing rates against secondary offerings. There is legit fringe-average pop here and lift that could manifest in 10-15 homers a year.

Ball also handles both middle infield positions, though his fringe average speed is noticeable at shortstop, where his abilities are somewhat limited. Teams looking for a hitter with a feel for contact and some power will make Ball a day 3 target.

JR Freethy, OF, Nevada

The switch-hitting Freethy is the most complete pure hitter in the conference with plus feel for contact and plus swing decisions. Freethy’s swing is compact and a bit whippy with solid bat speed. He has a slighter 6-foot frame that doesn’t lend much power though Freethy’s 103.1 mph 90th percentile exit velocity is still respectable.

There is average speed here, and Freethy has played center field, although he’s best suited for a corner spot.

Other MW names to keep an eye on:

Jake Holland, C, New Mexico

As a 5th year player, Holland is exclusively a money saver, a very late day three pick, or a priority UDFA. There’s a real backup catcher upside here with average pop, a swing built for pull-side lift, and solid hands behind the plate.

Austin Kryszczuk, 1B, UNLV

Kryszczuk’s performance history makes him a legit pro prospect. He’s not above average in any way, with average swing decisions, a feel for contact, and fringe-average raw power, but Kryszczuk hits fastballs with the best of them.

Jadon Bercovich, RHP, San Diego State

The SDSU right-hander's results this year (8.24 ERA) were truly unsightly, but his 2800 rpm two-plane slider is a weapon that misses bats. With some tweaks to his fastball usage, he will play in a bullpen.

This wraps the three-part coverage of draft prospects out west. Keep a close eye on the West Coast Conference’s top prospects as solid-upside big leaguers with some intriguing names to emerge from the WCC’s depth along with the Mountain West.

MLB Draft Prospects Out West | Part 1

College baseball out west might not have the sensational appeal that it does eastbound in the SEC & ACC but it’s still a massive hotbed for talent. We all know about Travis Bazzana, Malcolm Moore, and Rodney Green, among others, but there are dozens of other prospects out west with less acclaim to their name.

While most of the more enticing prospects are playing out the final season in the Pac-12, the West Coast Conference (WCC), Big West Conference, Mountain West Conference (MW), and Western Athletic Conference (WAC) will send along their share of signees into pro ball. In order to prioritize depth and breadth, this overview will be split into three parts with the Pac-12 and WAC to follow below, the Big West to follow on it’s own, and the WCC and MW coverage to bring up the rear.

With conference play coming to a close, draft stocks are becoming more solid, though plenty of change will happen between now and mid-July.

PAC-12

Aiden May, RHP, Oregon State

The first of a handful of Beavers that stand out, May checks key boxes with above-average velocity, feel for spin, and sharp command. The 6-foot-2 right-hander has sat 93-95, topping at 98 this year--with two distinct fastballs--a fringe-average four-seam with some run and a somewhat flat approach because of his low 3/4 release height and a steep sinker that profiles to be an above average pitch as it avoids barrels and induces weak contact.

May backs the fastballs up with a 2800+ RPM tailing slider featuring premium late break. It’s easily a plus pitch that sits 83-86, capable of missing plenty of pro bats. There isn’t another pitch May uses often, though he’s flashed an upper-80s split-changeup with healthy fade that has the makings of a plus pitch because of his ability to kill spin and get the pitch downhill.

Continued development of May’s changeup could help keep left-handers off of his fastball and allow May to start as a pro. Improved strike throwing this year mitigates the reliever risk and the Albuquerque native will get a chance to start as a mid-90s arm with a plus slider and promising changeup.

Jacob Kmatz, RHP, Oregon State

From the same Albuquerque high school as May, Kmatz brings a resume as a three-year member of the Oregon State rotation. Unlike May, Kmatz doesn’t bring big velocity but he does throw a multitude of pitches that make him a tough scout for hitters. Standing 6-foot-3 and likely physically maxed, Kmatz will reach up to grab 94 but he will sit 90-92 with plus carry and some run on his fastball from a high 3/4 slot.

It should be an average or better pitch, even with the low-end velocity but Kmatz can keep hitters off of it by throwing a cutter, slider, curveball, and changeup. Kmatz focuses on the curveball, sitting in the mid-70s with hammer 12:30-6:30 shape. Surprisingly, it doesn’t miss many bats but when executed, it’s a contact killer. The slider doesn’t stand out though Kmatz has feel for it and changes speeds and shapes with the cutter to create effectiveness. Finally, the changeup has the potential to be Kmatz’s best secondary. He kills spin and creates a very steep plane with his high slot.

Kmatz lives in the zone which can get him into trouble at times with less-than-premium stuff but he won’t issue many free passes and avoids barrels when he’s at his best. There’s absolutely backend starter potential here because of the pitchability and arsenal diversity.

Bridger Holmes, RHP, Oregon State

Transferred in from Feather River College in northern California, Holmes has some gaudy characteristics that will get him selected early in this year’s draft. The lanky 6-foot-4 righty is a true sidearmer that sits 90-93 with a very lively sinker. The sidearm slot allows him to buy into the pitch’s run and bury it to the armside or get underneath the baseball and throw the heater up in the zone with run. There’s a chance for a plus offering here, especially if he can more routinely sit 92-94.

What has cemented Holmes as a mid-round prospect is a 3,000 RPM slider that hitters don’t pick up on because of the arm slot. It works hard horizontally and in and under the hands of lefties, allowing Holmes to dominate left-handers. While he’s a reliever going forward, Holmes will be a priority for teams looking for a varied look, premium feel for spin, and some projectability & moldability.

Tanner Smith, C, Oregon State

In some ways, Smith is the straw that stirs the drink for a dangerous Oregon State team. He’s a three-year starter behind the dish for the Beavers with above-average defensive ability and a bat that’s finally taking the requisite steps to make him a rounded pro prospect. Smith has good hands that can exchange the ball fast and his arm is above average, allowing him to be one of the best catch and throw backstops in college baseball. Smith is also an above-average framer and athlete behind the plate, with few pitches getting past him.

At the plate, Smith has seen an uptick in raw power and he now profiles to have average or better raw power with a chance to see a dozen or so home runs a season in the pros. Smith has also noticeably improved his swing decisions and is getting on base far more often as a result. There’s still some excessive swing and miss in Smith’s game and he’ll likely never be an average overall hitter because of it, though the improved approach makes the bat playable. Look for Smith to go sometime late on day 2 or early on day 3 to satisfy the teams’ yearly need for catching depth.

Elijah Hainline, SS, Oregon State

Part of an Oregon State transfer class that’s moving the needle in Corvallis, Hainline has picked up where he left off at Washington State. Primarily the Beavers shortstop this year, Hainline has flashed excellent and vastly improved zone awareness and now projects to walk at an average or better rate. The traits that Hainline carried into this year still prevail. Hainline has ultra-fast hands that clear the zone quickly and generate quality bat speed. With his slight frame, Hainline may be able to add a tick more power but he currently projects for average power output. 

Given a chance to play shortstop more often than at Washington State, Hainline has proven himself to be an above-average defender at shortstop with quick feet and an intense motor. There’s impressive two-way ability here and Hainline may be in line for an early day 2 pick, though the bat-to-ball skills remain fringe-average.

Brock Moore, RHP, Oregon

One of the top pure relievers set to be selected in July’s draft, the 6-foot-6 Moore has stuff that dreams are made of. Moore sits 96-100 on his fastball, coming from a low slot with some carry to create a very flat approach angle. It’s one of the best fastballs in the entire class and could be a double-plus offering. Moore throws three other pitches, a slider, curveball, and changeup with the changeup profiling best for the next level.

Moore gets his changeup steep downhill by leveraging his big frame and the ball has plenty of spin-induced fade. It’s another plus pitch in Moore’s arsenal and gives him closer upside. Neither of Moore’s breaking balls are especially polished at this stage, but he can spin the ball with the best of them and if one of the breakers can take the next step, Moore could be confidently tried as a starter in the pros. Moore had issues with his control at times at the NAIA level but has thrown plenty of strikes this year and could fast track as a reliever.

Bennett Thompson, C, Oregon

A second notable catcher in the Pac-12, Thompson has a promising hit tool with an excellent feel for contact and above-average swing decisions. The Ducks’ backstop fares well against all pitch types, giving him a very rounded hitting profile and the potential to get on base at an above-average rate in the pros. Thompson has below-average power but his swing frequently creates loft, giving Thompson a chance to hit 5-7 homers a year as a pro.

In terms of framing and blocking, Thompson has work to do and his fringe arm paints a lackluster defensive profile. On the basepaths, Thompson is fringe-average as well. While Thompson has one pro-ready tool, it’s arguably the most important one and Thompson will get a chance to develop as a backup catcher.

Bryce Boettcher, OF, Oregon

Boettcher is a legit two-sport athlete, recording 37 tackles as an inside linebacker for the Ducks football team in 2023. The football instincts translate to Boettcher’s ability to roam centerfield. Boettcher is an average runner at best but there is a tangible knack for reading fly balls and taking efficient routes to them, giving him a legit shot to stick up the middle in the pros.

With the stick, Boettcher has excellent hands. It’s not the most aesthetic swing but Boettcher keeps his hands quiet and makes plenty of contact. Boettcher can be a bit aggressive but it’s still likely an average hit tool. Boettcher has a physically mature and large build, but the power is presently fringe-average. The defensive instincts and plus hands will get Boettcher to the pros and he’ll have a chance to blow up by pursuing solely baseball.

Jeffery Heard, OF, Oregon

Transferring in from Sac State, Heard has gone from a mid-major star to a power conference contributor. Heard has a very smooth swing that creates a ton of loft. While his raw power is below average, Heard hits the ball hard in the air giving him a chance for fringe-average power. Heard also profiles as an average or better hitter as his connected swing makes a lot of contact and he runs a mature approach. There have been some struggles handling secondaries with Heard expanding his zone a bit too often, inflating his swing and miss totals.

Heard is an average runner with better-than-average top speeds and he should be more than capable in an outfield corner. There might not be a ton of upside with Heard but he’s a safe bet to hit in the pros and might be able to infuse more power into his smooth swing.

RJ Gordon, RHP, Oregon

Gordon finally broke out in his first year as a full-time starter for Oregon. The 6-foot righty has a compact, efficient build with intriguing arm talent. Despite his smaller frame, Gordon has sat 91-94 this year, grabbing 97 once or twice. On top of the solid average velocity, Gordon gets 20.2 inches of induced vertical break which paired with his average release height creates a flat approach angle that misses bats. The heater is average though, as Gordon adds more mass, he might be able to more routinely sit in the mid-90s and push the envelope.

The rest of his arsenal is fair with a quality steep slider as his second pitch along with a fringy slider and promising fading changeup. The latter two pitches may never become regulars in his arsenal but Gordon’s fastball, curveball, and clean mechanics will likely get him a shot to start in the pros.

Toran O’Harran, RHP, Stanford

The Sacramento native O’Harran looks to add to the Stanford Cardinal pitching legacy that has produced Mike Mussina, Jack McDowell, and Jeremy Guthrie, among others. O’Harran’s calling card is his fastball shape; it’s got ideal modern heater characteristics. Sitting 91-94, O’Harran gets serious carry on the pitch, averaging 19.8 inches of IVB with a more upward release angle to create an extremely flat approach angle. As a result, O’Harran’s fastball runs a 28.9% whiff rate and profiles as an above-average and potentially plus pitch.

To back up the fastball, O’Harran throws a fringey slider with quality depth but limited glove-side movement. O’Harran will need to revamp the pitch’s shape in the pros and tap into his natural ability to generate spin. O’Harran’s changeup will help him move up the pro ladder. The velocity difference is a bit steep as his offspeed sits in the mid-to-upper-70s, but it’s an out pitch regardless of how it sequences with his fastball, bending to the armside with plenty of drop. Developing the slider will be key to establishing a third speed in O’Harran’s arsenal. If he can do that, along with the refinement of his overall feel, there’s a legit starter profile here headed by two borderline plus pitches, though he may be viewed more as a reliever in the meantime.

Jackson Kent, LHP, Arizona

Likely the highest-ranked draft-eligible southpaw in the conference, Kent mixes the pitchability you want from a low-90s lefty with the type of deep arsenal that indicates starting upside. Kent’s fastball may appear fringey on the surface but the 90-93 mph offering has a flat shape for similar reasons to O’Harran above; a flatter release angle and a lower-than-average release height. The pitch gets roughly average carry but can be a weapon up in the zone, especially because Kent locates it effectively. 

The lefty has three secondaries to mix in with an above-average changeup representing the best one. With a bit of a funky delivery, Kent creates plenty of deception and also tumbles the pitch hard downhill, making it a weak contact magnet. Kent will then spin either a 12-6 curve or a slider that he likes to bury down. The curveball has proven difficult to hit while the slider gets average results. All four of Kent’s pitches are reliable, giving him a prototypical low-octane 5th starter outlook with a swingman floor that should get him drafted somewhat early on day 2.

Clark Candiotti, RHP, Arizona

Pushing 24 years old, Candiotti is an unusual name to include, however, a year with Arizona has done wonders for the big righty’s future. After sitting 88-91 at Wichita State last year, Candiotti has seen a huge velo jump and now sits 92-94 with some run. It’s an average or better pitch that teams may jump on as a senior sign money saver versus hoping for a UDFA commitment.

Candiotti has a fringe-average mid-80s slider with average depth but limited sweep that he’s still developing feel for. The Scottsdale native has an intriguing curveball with above-average drop that could become an average pitch and create legit pro upside.

Ryan Campos, C, Arizona State

The lefty-swinging backstop will be one of the first catchers off the board in July. Campos combines a zone contact percentage over 90% with above-average swing decisions to make a comfortably above-average hit tool. Campos produces more power than you’d expect from his compact 5-foot-8, 190-pound frame with a 90th percentile exit velocity over 103 mph. He won’t produce average power output but the bat is well-rounded. Campos can get too aggressive against fastballs but his zone is extremely tight when he picks up a change in velocity or spin.

Defensively, Campos is fringey in about every way. His exchange times can be average but his arm is usually a tick below average and his smaller frame minimizes his ability to vacuum up pitches in the dirt. Campos is clearly a serviceable defender but his path to being an everyday catcher is narrow. Fortunately, there is athleticism here that has served Campos well in the outfield—though sparingly this year—giving him a fallback option should catching not work long-term.

Nick McLain, OF, Arizona State

The brother of two-time first-round pick Matt McLain and Dodgers prospect Sean, Nick doesn’t carry the same hype as his oldest brother but the switch hitter is a talented and versatile player in his own right. The youngest McLain works an advanced approach, especially against fastballs, though he presents an oddity of whiffing against heaters far more often than he does breaking balls. He still impacts fastballs well and profiles to see all pitch types well. McLain has average overall feel for contact, giving him a chance for above-average hitting output because of his approach.

The power projection is minimal here with a 90th percentile exit velocity of 102.9 mph. McLain elevates the baseball well with a backspin-inducing swing but he’s likely to settle with below-average power. Strictly an outfielder, McLain’s fringe-average speed limits his overall range but he’s an efficient route runner and will be average in a corner. McLain is a sum of several good parts but his lack of a standout trait may leave him on the board well into day 2.

Cody Schrier, SS, UCLA

Discussed as a top-2 round player out of JSerra (CA) in 2021, Schrier found himself a 3-year starter at UCLA instead. A consensus freshman All-American, Schrier stagnated following his first year, in part due to a labrum tear in 2023. This year, teams will be considering Schrier’s former elite prospect status as they weigh selecting him. The UCLA star isn’t an explosive bat, with his career 90th percentile exit velocity hovering around 103 mph, but when Schrier is at his best, he blends average contact skills with average swing decisions to create a solid overall profile.

Schrier hasn’t fully figured out secondaries at the collegiate level and will do most of his damage against fastballs. Additionally, since the shoulder injury, Schrier has changed his stance and finds himself opening up earlier and reaching more with his arms, pounding the ball into the ground more often. In some ways, teams will see low-hanging fruit if they feel they can reconnect Schrier’s swing and he might get selected more in line with his overall reputation rather than his 2024 performance. Schrier’s ability to play an average shortstop, boosted by above-average arm strength will help his cause. 

Duce Gourson, 2B, UCLA

Gourson is one of UCLA’s best recruits in recent years and he’s lived up to the hype with early day 2 potential. The lefty-swinging middle infielder has quiet hands and a beautifully efficient swing that generates impact thanks to his load that creates plenty of core explosion and great lower-body engagement. The raw power is roughly average--with a 90th percentile exit velocity just under 105 mph--matching Gourson’s average-sized frame, but his bat path creates leverage and gets the ball in the air enough for him to maximize the raw juice. 

The strength of Gourson’s profile, however, is an above-average hit tool. His swing decisions are sound with a 20% chase rate and his zone-contact rate of 88.3% showcases the precision Gourson executes with. His college production does not match the underlying skill metrics or his pure talent. Gourson slid off shortstop completely this year with Schrier healthy, a necessary move as Gourson’s average range and fringe-average arm profile better on the right side of the infield. Gourson is a strong candidate to be a draft bargain for a model team with his complete offensive toolset.

Luke Jewett, RHP, UCLA

The Bruins best pitcher during a down year for the program, Jewett has a few promising components that make him a late day 2 or early day 3 target. The 6-foot-4 righty has a lively low-90s fastball that peaks at 95 with some carry and run. Coming from a high overtop slot, he’s a tough read for hitters though Jewett won’t ever miss many bats.

His curveball and changeup are both developed pitches that give some real life to this profile. Jewett’s curveball gets late sweep and has plenty of drop, creating a really steep pitch that also runs away from righties. Jewett has below-average movement on his changeup but it’s a sequence-based pitch that tumbles late and is hard to barrel.

Austin Overn, OF, USC

One of the bigger fallers in this class relative to preseason expectations, Overn failed to build upon an extremely promising freshman campaign, though there are still positive takeaways. While Overn likely couldn’t establish the same rhythm in a weaker Trojan lineup, he did noticeably add strength to his slim-athletic frame, elevating his power from below average close to average with a 104.3 mph 90th percentile exit velocity.

Overn came into the year needing to sharpen his discipline at the plate but actually saw an increase in chase swings and fewer deep counts. The average bat-to-ball skills paired with that budding power make the offensive profile a more compelling match with Overn’s plus glove in center field and easy plus wheels. While he didn’t play himself into the back of the first round as was discussed prior to the year, Overn still has promising upside as a two-way outfielder and will likely find a suitor in the middle of day 2.

Cole Cramer, 3B, Washington State

A JUCO grinder, Cramer made the most of his deserved Power 5 opportunity, establishing himself as one of the best pure hitters in this year’s class. Cramer’s feel for contact is excellent from his compact swing with his zone contact rate hovering just below 95%. Cramer also showed a mature approach from the get-go with a great high for velocity and a fair ability to read spin.

Because his approach is so geared towards making solid contact consistently, Cramer is not a power player with well-below-average game power though it’s feasible he could tick up a grade with more physical maturation. Washington State’s primary third baseman this year, Cramer looks fringey at the hot corner but impressed in his brief time at second base and could emerge as average there. This looks like a classic late-day 2 underslot option for a team looking for a classic gamer type.

Peyton Schulze, 1B, California

An atypical smaller-build first baseman, Schulze slugs like he’s a whole 4 inches taller than his 6-foot-1 frame. Schulze has a clean undercut swing that elevates the ball around an average rate but always with some impact. Schulze’s pure power metrics jumped a fair amount this year with a 90th percentile exit velocity of 108.5 mph. He’s pretty easy to project for above-average power production in the pros with easy plus raw power.

Schulze’s bat-to-ball skills are impressive for a player of his archetype and few in this draft class have the raw power Schulze does with a zone contact rate above 88%. What Schulze does lack is his selectivity; he’s a fastball hunter and will cut some at-bats short by running a similar approach with one strike as he does with two. If Schulze can better control the zone, he’s got serious pro upside, even as a 1 B-only player.

WAC

Tyler Wilson, OF, GCU

Another Grand Canyon product from MLB bloodlines with the last name Wilson (unrelated to Jack & Jacob), Tyler won’t be a high first-rounder like Jacob, but figures to be in mid-day 2 range. The 6-foot-2 outfielder has a smooth swing that generates healthy backspin, helping to maximize his fringe-average raw power. Wilson has made a name for himself by picking up spin and running a tight zone, chasing just 18.8% of pitches out of the zone.

There’s more swing and miss than you’d like for a player with Wilson’s power and he gets beat low and away, but his bat still profiles to make an impact. Wilson is more than capable in the outfield and features an average arm.

Daniel Avitia, RHP, GCU

A softer thrower, averaging just 90.6 on his fastball, Avitita wins with finesse and deception. The lanky 6-foot-4 right-hander hides the ball well and drops to a low 3/4 slot that leaves same-side hitters fooled while the run on his fastball provides potential for an arsenal to compete with left-handed bats, though they’ve gotten the better of Avitia to this point. Avitia’s big frame helps him get well extended to the plate and kicks up his perceived velocity.

Avitia backs his heater up with a slider and changeup, both of which have been dominant offerings. The changeup is a legit plus pitch and one of the best offspeeds in this class, it gets ridiculous run and fade, moving like a breaking ball. Avitia’s slider isn’t close to plus but it’s a sweepy breaking ball that wipes out right-handers. The present inability to get lefties out places some reliever risk on Avitia’s profile, though he could be dynamic and unique from a pen role.

Brandon Downer, RHP, California Baptist

Downer will be a ball-of-clay pick for a team on day 3. The big 6-foot-5 right-hander has sat 92-95 all year with above-average extension and some carry on his fastball; it has the makings of an average offering. Downer has a well-developed arsenal to back up his heater with two breaking balls and a quality low-spin changeup. The changeup is deceptive and profiles as a fringe average second or third pitch while Downer’s curveball has one of the steepest approach angles of any pitch in the class.

Downer is still developing some feel and locates inconsistently but he’s got the requisite power and secondary characteristics to get teams interested in his development.

Mitch Mueller, RHP, Utah Valley

Mueller has a very whippy arm that drops into a lower 3/4 slot and brings some power. The 6-foot-5 righty sits 91-94 from a lower slot and leverages his frame for extension, getting his fastball some extra giddy-up and flatter shape. Teams will look at it as a pro-ready pitch.

Backing it up, Mueller’s changeup has shown promise and his curveball is an effective offering that he has good feel for. Mueller throws his changeup hard in the 85-88 range with a deceptive action though its movement is wholly inconsistent. Teams will buy the arm talent here and perhaps give Mueller a chance to start early in his career.

The West is full of talent that sometimes goes under the radar, especially in non-power conferences. Keep an eye on this crop to be selected and make a pro impact down the stretch this summer.

Deep(er) Drives: Chase Davis

Continuing the Deep(er) Drives series, we’re going to focus on one player who saw a meteoric rise this season.

Arizona star outfielder Chase Davis entered the 2023 season as a notable draft prospect. A top-50 pick was not out of the question due to a rounded toolbox, however, his offensive game was feast or famine. While Davis’s swing has always drawn favorable looks due to Carlos Gonzalez's parallels, his pre-2023 performance created uncertainty as to whether he could produce at a high level in the pros.

Exorbitant swing and miss rates against secondary pitches were the cause for concern. Davis’s approach has always been above average, working counts, selectively tailoring his attack against fastballs, and working a huge share of walks. Fast forward through 2023 and those strengths remain. Amazingly, the issues with secondary pitches have seemingly dissipated without any real adjustment to his approach rather mostly mechanical alterations to his setup and swing.

With that preface in mind, let’s give a full overview of Davis as a prospect and show comparisons from his 2022 and 2023 campaigns.

Swing mechanics

Davis has always excelled at elevating the baseball because of his bat path and ability to strike the lower half of the baseball. However, that is the main carryover from last year to this one.

In 2022, Davis’s setup and swing actually look pretty unrecognizable from where it stands now. Last year, he deployed a closed stance with his hands set just above his head compared to now where he sets up extremely wide and lowered his hands to roughly head level.

Davis’s 2022 stance and swing

In action, this has allowed Davis’s stride to create most of the potential energy and torque when he brings his front foot from the wide position to his swing launch, focusing most of the movement in his core and lower body. In the past, with his closed stance, Davis’s load involved upper body movement to try and create impact which caused his hands to move more wildly as he initiated his swing.

Davis’s 2023 stance and swing

Quiet hands typically allow for more precise swings and consistency in controlling the barrel. Which is exactly what we saw this year. Not only can that precision reduce swings and misses but increase contact quality. As with every player, there are still some lingering imperfections and there is still some hand waggle at times but the improvement has allowed Davis’s patience and premium raw power to play at elite levels.

The Results

Last year, Davis ran a 31% whiff rate—on the much higher end of the spectrum before overall production becomes hard to sustain. His zone whiff rate was 22%, also much higher than average for quality draft prospects.

This year his overall whiff rate dropped to 20% and his zone whiff rate was halved to 11%. Subsequently, his strikeout rate dropped from 22.8% to 14%. These contact rate improvements are shocking on a year-to-year basis and much of it has to deal with quieting the hands and creating a springier core-based load. Those contact rates are also in very positive territory where Davis can enter the pros without swing-and-miss concerns.

Digging deeper, Davis saw his breaking ball whiff rate drop from 50% down to just 25% and his offspeed whiff rate from 38% to 19%. As a prodigious fastball hitter coming into the year, Davis narrowly improved his whiff rate against heaters from 20% to 18%.

In terms of OPS, his overall OPS ballooned from .997 to 1.231. His OPS against fastballs jumped from 1.116 to 1.324, against offspeed from .958 to 1.510, and against breaking balls from .767 to .917.

Coming into the year, Davis deserved a below-average 40-grade hit tool. His approach was very sound with just a 19% chase rate but the swing-and-miss issues would have been prohibitive of even average on-base production. After remarkable improvements, I’d make the case that Davis’s hit tool grades out above average, if not even plus. He’s patient and now handles all pitch types well with above-average contact rates. Mix in the typical quality of his contact and proclivity to elevate the baseball and there will be walks and extra-base hits galore in Davis’s pro future.

Davis has always had double-plus raw power and these refinements to his bat will allow the mid-110s max EVs to play more frequently. This creates an extremely rare blend of power and contact that few players in college baseball can boast.

In the field

Obviously, Davis is a premier offensive talent in this year’s draft but his potential as a 5-tool player drives the hype of being taken in the top half of round one.

First, Davis can notch times slightly below 4.2 up the line, not burner speed but it’s at least average speed and Davis covers ground a little faster than that once accelerated. Davis has plenty of center field experience from his time on the Cape but has almost exclusively slotted in left field with Arizona.

Davis doesn’t look the part of a plus center fielder but he makes sound reads, gets quick jumps, and takes efficient routes, allowing him to maximize average speed and be a quality outfielder. The athletic profile isn’t a lot different from Tennessee’s Jordan Beck last year. Beck mostly played right field for the Vols but was fundamentally strong and a tick above average speed-wise. Now in the pros, Beck has played roughly a quarter of his games in center and I expect a similar path for Davis.

Unquestionably, Davis possesses plus arm strength and consistent accuracy. As a result, whoever drafts Davis will end up with a plus corner outfielder but they’ll likely juice out his potential to hang in center field where Davis could end up average.

Final thoughts

Frankly, Davis is a special talent and a now refined skillset to back it. The tangible improvements Davis made year-to-year should be viewed in their own light as evidence he can adapt and make adjustments as necessary, a capability that can make or break careers. Davis won’t hang on the board very long and it would not shock me if he turned into a top-10 underslot selection.

Live Looks: Tacoma Rainiers at Albuquerque Isotopes, 5/20 Doubleheader

Seattle’s Triple-A affiliate stopped in the land of enchantment to squeeze in some baseball, when rain permitted. The plus side of that is I got to catch a doubleheader after May 19th’s game was postponed. While most of the Mariners’ top prospect talent is in Double-A Arkansas, a pair of tooled up outfielders head the Rainiers’ lineup in Cade Marlowe & Zach DeLoach.

On the Isotopes side, they’ve got a couple bats worthy of attention in Nolan Jones & Aaron Schunk and a bullpen featuring several high-octane arms, of which Riley Pint and Tommy Doyle were on display.

Cade Marlowe, CF/RF | 1-7, 2 K

Game 1 was one of those that passed Marlowe by at the dish. Dinelson Lamet and Phillips Valdez attacked the zone, got ahead early, and then didn’t leave the door open for Marlowe to attack in all three of his PAs. He sandwiched a weak groundout with two strikeouts—both swinging with one on a Lamet slider in and the other a Valdez sinker that ran away from Marlowe. Overall, Marlow logged three whiffs on 11 pitches seen.

Cade Marlowe lines out (96.3 mph EV)

Defensively, Marlowe made a pretty routine but rangy play on a 1st inning flyball to retire Yonathan Daza but was unable to make a tougher play on a would-be Nolan Jones triple in the 4th. The speed and range is quality, and Marlowe will undoubtedly be able to man center field at the next level but the expectation should be that he’s a fringe-average center field and potentially above-average to plus corner outfielder.

Game 2 saw a more involved Marlowe. He put four balls in play with three of them registering over 94 MPH off the bat. Ironically, his one hit came in much softer than that. Marlowe also only whiffed once in game 2, however he showed a reluctance to secondary pitches after struggling to read them and get quality swings off in game 1.

Speaking of Marlowe’s lone hit on the day, it came on an infield single where he bursted for a roughly 4.15 time up the line, an easily plus time. Physically, Marlowe’s size is impressive. His frame isn’t overly large but it is about maximized, meaning he’ll likely hold his speed into his late-20s. The complete picture is an intriguing blend of power, speed, and subsequent defensive upside. There should be legitimate skepticism on how much he’ll hit, though because, he doesn’t seem very comfortable handling breaking balls.

Zach DeLoach, RF/CF | 3-7, 2B, 3 k

DeLoach turned in a productive pair of games, getting on base in both, including a double in game 2, though the three strikeouts are a blemish on the record. The key highlight of the doubleheader for DeLoach was an excellent ranging catch in center field in game 2 on a fading line drive that looked like a hit off the bat.

With the stick, DeLoach impacted the ball multiple times with two of his hits coming off the bat at over 96 MPH and a lineout at 100 MPH. Ironically, like Marlowe’s lone hit, DeLoach’s double was hit pretty softly. The consistency in creating hard contact is promising. DeLoach also shows he can use his lower half well, getting deep into his legs and efficiently transferring weight throughout his swing. Not only should this help keep his swing operation in sync, but it allows him to generate quality contact and leverage.

Zach DeLoach pulls a double off former Orioles & Nationals starter Josh Rogers

DeLoach was a bit swing happy, trying at 15 of the 30 pitches he saw, and there is a fair amount of movement in his upper body load that may create some whiff issues. DeLoach was completely out of his timing when he saw breaking balls and managed for all four of his whiffs to come against sliders, despite only seeing six of them. This almost sounds like a rehash of the Marlowe report; DeLoach brings surefire power and speed with decent center field ability, but the handling of breaking balls may hamper him significantly as he looks to make the jump to the big leagues.

Nolan Jones, 1B | 1-2, 3B, BB

Jones only played the first game but made a clear impact. In his first PA, Jones drew a 5-pitch walk, flashing the plate discipline that has always boosted Jones’s prospect stock. Jones maintained a particularly tight zone all game, taking all but two of the 13 pitches he saw, lacing a triple in the 4th and lining out at 96.1 the inning before. On his triple, Jones ended up at 3rd in right about 12 seconds, including a slow start out of the box where he may have thought he was flying out and a put-on-the-brakes trot into third when it was clear he was standing up. His strides are long, and he’s a quality athlete. As of now, it’s comfortable average speed, and I’d be inclined to say it’s above-average.

For a player with long levers, the 6’4” Jones has a very controlled and simple swing. He has a very subtle knee bend in his stance with his hands chin height which allows them to remain quiet with a direct path to drive through his swing. There will always be some swing and miss because of Jones’ size, the might with which he swings, and the fact that his bat-to-ball skills are not exactly a strength of his game, but most of his strikeouts come from working counts deep. He figures to run a roughly average strikeout rate in the big leagues to match the prodigious power.

Jones looks extremely comfortable at the plate, perhaps as comfortable and confident as ever. He has dominated the Pacific Coast League, leading the league in OPS, and frankly, I’m not sure why I was able to see him over the weekend as he should be starting everyday in the Rockies lineup. Jones has primarily played right field and third base, with plenty of innings at first base and some in left field.

Aaron Schunk, 3B | 2-6, 2 2B, K

Schunk has re-emerged after a somewhat difficult return to Minor League Baseball following 2020’s absence. While the Pacific Coast League is a helper of hitters, Schunk has always possessed legitimate power and enough pure hitting ability to flash it.

Schunk was hyper-aggressive in both games, not taking any chances by waiting at the dish. He was rewarded with two doubles in game 1 at 106.5 and 108.1 MPH off the bat, respectively. The approach and lack of plus bat-to-ball skills may lead to extended slumps, but if Schunk continues to consistently mix in extra-base hits, he’ll get by as a lightning rod utility player.

At third, Schunk’s internal clock and arm strength are great assets, especially his arm which used to have him close out games in the SEC. Schunk’s nimble feet will also allow him to be a force defensively, whether at third base or second base, where he has logged extended time in recent years.

With Brendan Rodgers sidelined this year, Schunk’s resurgence gives him a chance at cracking the Rockies’ MLB roster and pick up some playing time at second base.

Riley Pint, RP | 0.2 IP, 2 H, 1 BB, 1 ER, 14 pitches (5 strikes)

As long as Pint plays, he’s worth giving attention to. The former 4th overall pick has tremendous arm talent and typically brings the best stuff in any game he enters.

Unfortunately, Pint’s body doesn’t seem linked up throughout his delivery. His plant foot lands pretty wide, opening up his hips just as his arm swing begins, leaving his arm to do an awful lot of the work, disfavoring any sort of precision.

Riley Pint pitches to Zach DeLoach who slaps a single

It’s still easy mid-90s velocity, touching up to 98 MPH with an upper-80s slider but, when his offerings are mostly in non-competitive places, their effectiveness is diminished. Pint got to crack the big league roster for a quick MLB debut, but the current mechanical flaws cast serious doubt on a future MLB role.

Tommy Doyle, RP | 1.0 IP, 12 pitches (7 strikes)

Back in 2020, Doyle made his MLB debut for the Rockies. Since then, he’s pitched just 20 innings, including his work Saturday. Not a lot of detail is required here other than noting Doyle is back on the map. He appears fully healthy and back to mixing his mid-90s fastball and high-80s slider. The arm action is extremely deceptive and the location of his pitches was effective.

Watch out for Doyle to catch back on with the big league club, at some point.