Dynasty Baseball Notes: 8/17 to 8/24

Welcome to this week’s edition of Prospect Live’s dynasty league notes! Every week, we will be updating you with relevant analysis that could help you with roster decisions for your respective dynasty teams. Please note, however, that this isn’t simply a “stock up, down” report. My goal with this series is to go beyond the simple storylines of “player X is playing well”. Rather, whether it’s changing pitch mixes, approach shifts, buy-low/sell-high targets, progress reports on young players, or deep-league sleepers, I will be diving deep to develop storylines that may not be as widely covered. Our great team at Prospects Live has done a fabulous job with their daily minor-league write ups. Thus, when adding on the fact that there is less data with minor-league players, these notes will generally focus on the major-league side.

Between a hyped-up superstar coming into his own, high-end outfielders heading in separate directions, and intriguing pitch-mix changes, there is a lot to get to this week. Without further ado, let us get right into the notes!

The Wander Boy Has Arrived

When you’re labeled with an 80-grade hit tool and are labeled as a generational prospect, it’s expected that you reach your potential immediately in the big leagues. Thus, when Wander Franco posted a 65 wRC+ through his 66 first-half plate appearances, it’s understandable that many were disappointed. However, the “Wander Boy” has officially arrived; a superstar has been born.

Since the start of August, here are Franco’s overall numbers:

• .310/.380/.551, 153 wRC+, .387 wOBA, .211 ISO, 7.6% BB, 8.9% K, 7.8% Barrel

Remember the elite contact skills Franco was cited having in the minors? Well, he’s showing it. Although his chase rate (32%) remains high, he’s now swinging in the zone around 75% of the time, which demonstrates an aggressive approach rather than an undisciplined one. Really, the greatest change here has been his success against fastballs.

The sample size in June is very small, but it’s pretty easy to establish a logical narrative here: Franco needed time to adjust to MLB-caliber fastballs, and he now has done that. Meanwhile, while he had been a complete liability vs righties earlier on, he has posted a .360 wOBA and 11.1% barrel rate as a lefty this month. Franco has officially taken off as a superstar player, which is fabulous to see. In fact, you could call it WANDERFUL.

Pitch-Mix Changes: Brad Keller and Kyle Freeland

Remember when Kyle Freeland was a Cy-Young contender and Brad Keller posted a 3.08 ERA in his rookie season? Those were good times. I don’t know about you, but I’d like to get back to those times! With recent pitch-mix changes, they might not be ALL the way back, yet they’re back to being productive pitchers, which cannot go under the radar.

Regression was expected from Freeland’s 2.85 ERA in 2018, which came with a 4.35 SIERA. However, no one expected him to post a 6.73 ERA, while his 15.1% strikeout rate in 2020 didn’t provide extra reason for optimism. With a 9.58 ERA, 5.92 SIERA, and 11.3% strikeout rate through his first five starts of the year, the 28-year-old had become a “do not start” pitcher regardless of the matchup. Since then, however, Freeland has posted a 24.2% strikeout rate and just a 4.8% walk rate. The big change? An increase to his curveball rate. He’s thrown it an extra 10% of the time, reducing his changeup and slider usage in that span. With a .133 wOBA and 39.5% whiff rate, the curveball has been an absolute weapon; it's also been inducing chases (40%) and ground balls (54.5%) at an elite level. Will this continue? It’s not ideal for evaluation purposes that he’s faced the Mariners, Pirates, Cardinals, Cubs, Mariners, and Diamondbacks during that span. However, he’s also held his own against the Giants, Dodgers, and Padres, and has been actually better at Coors Field this season. Right now, Freeland is throwing strikes, missing bats, going deep in games, and inducing ground balls; that’s an excellent combination! While his overall numbers still aren’t fantastic, make sure to add him or buy-low on him now!

As for Keller, the 26-year-old may have a 5.43 ERA for the season, but that doesn’t depict his skills properly. Since the start of July, he’s posted a 3.35 ERA with solid K-BB numbers (24.8% strikeout rate, 8.9% walk rate). What caused this spike in production?

Oh, I see. Before this season, Keller’s slider wOBA allowed has been .233 or under in every year; as opposed to his fastballs and changeup, it’s clearly a strong offering and obviously his best pitch. Similarly to Freeland, buy into his stock before the majority of the fantasy community notices the clear change in pitch usage.

Corner Outfielders: Good News and Bad News

In dynasty, three corner outfielders that are held in similar regard would be Michael Conforto, Austin Meadows, and Mike Yastrzemski. Believe it or not, despite having the lowest wRC+ (100) of the bunch, Conforto is the one I’m the most optimistic about moving forward.

Although Conforto has struggled this season, it isn’t exactly clear why. Well, outside of mostly poor luck. His .267 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and 11.3 HR/FB rate, despite the fact his batted-ball numbers are all strong. In fact, he’s actually running the lowest strikeout rate (22%) of his career, in addition to fewer pop-ups (4.8%). The ballpark plays a role here, but as a pending free agent, this could all be fixed soon! If the opportunity presents itself, don’t be afraid to try to buy low on him!

With a 117 wRC+ and .221 ISO this season, it would appear that Austin Meadows was having a fine season for the Rays, which he has. However, I’m still a bit concerned about the 26-year-old moving forward. Since the start of June, he’s been a league-average hitter with a 99 wRC+ and .170 ISO, and, most concerning, just a 5.7% barrel. The problem? It stems back to same issues he had in 2020: not barreling fastballs.

Meadows has a clear issue when it comes to popping up fastballs, something he didn’t deal with in his peak 2019 season. During that span, his 12.5% barrel, 8.5% solid contact, and 27.1% flare/burner illustrated the perfect contract trajectory when it comes to hitting for average and power. However, with his bat path is getting under the ball (40.5% 2020, 37.8% 2021), which is depleting his ability to hit for average. Now, he’s more of a one-dimensional player geared for power, yet that part of his game hasn’t been great either. Not great, Bob.

Mike Yastrzemski, meanwhile, is similar to Meadows in that he is currently struggling, though his issues stem to only August- he’s posted a 55 wRC+ in 55 plate appearances this month (that’s a lot of 55s!). Obviously, its a small sample, but with just a 105 wRC+, Yastrzemski clearly has been a step down from previous seasons. The problem? Getting under the ball too much. His 32.4% under rate suggests that his swing is currently too steep, which hurts his ability to hit for average, though what concerns me the most is his struggles against lefties. He thrived against them for the first two years of his career, but he’s currently running a 54 wRC+ against southpaws this year. As someone who’s consistently struggled versus lefties, it appears the book is out on him:

Yastrzemski will get out of his current funk, but will he do enough to not profile as just a platoon player moving forward? I’m less optimistic. He’ll be on the right side of the platoon still, but unless he produces at an elite level against righties, it will be difficult for him to stack up volume statistics to stand out compared to other outfielders, especially in non-daily leagues. Plus, with the new trajectory. of contact, his fantasy value was already impacted by not hitting for average. He’ll provide you with plenty of power, draws walks, and plays all three outfield positions. For fantasy, though, he’s starting to become a one-dimensional platoon player, which is not ideal.

Random Relievers Of The Week

The Rays have a way for finding relievers out of a haystack, and it appears they have done so again with these two pitchers.

For the major cost of cash considerations, Tampa Bay was able to bring in Shawn Armstrong from the Orioles. Naturally, in his first five innings with the team, he’s struck out eight batters with just two baserunners allowed. With a vertical fastball that has thrived this year with a 34.2% whiff, he’s gone to it more often since joining Tampa Bay, and I hope he continues to do so:

Since joining the Rays, Armstrong has increased his average fastball release height, a clear sign of proper coaching and optimizing his arsenal; he’s throwing his cutter more down in the zone to limit damage as well. Now that his raw skills are meshed with the Rays’ pitching prowess, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the 30-year-old morph into a successful multi-inning relief weapon. In Tampa Bay, that means a heavy workload with the potential to vulture wins, giving him intriguing fantasy potential.

Speaking of vertical pitchers the Rays have picked up this year, how about Louis Head? The 31-year-old was selling solar panels and assuming his career was over, but Tampa gave him a chance, and he hasn’t looked back. In 25.2 innings, he’s posted a 3.16 ERA and 27.4% whiff rate, and has worked his way into being trusted more and more in Tampa Bay’s bullpen. It’s a two-pitch mix with a vertical fastball (1.8 inches more than average) and slider (3.1 inches more than average), which works when both pitches are so successful. The verticality of his arsenal has done wonders for his trajectory of contact allowed, including a 49.4% under rate and allowing him to neutralize line drives, which may be an actually legitimate skill given his arsenal and allow him to overachieve his xFIP consistently. If he continues to see usage as an opener and in multi-inning stints, he also could be an interest asset for fantasy down the stretch this season.

Other Notes

• Earlier in the season, I was quite high on Rangers infielder Yonny Hernandez, yet soured on him as he struck out more often and struggled a bit in Triple-A. Now, though, he’s up in the big leagues and has been exactly what I thought he’d been. As evidenced by his 3.9% swinging strike rate, opposite field sprays, and 36.2% flare/burner rate in his 58 plate appearances, he’s geared to hit for average, and will also steal some bases as well. This aligns much closer with the player he was throughout the minors, and it looks we can expect for him to be a unicorn in a game that continues to shift towards a high power/low contact style of play. He’s definitely someone undervalued I’d be targeting as a high-floor middle infielder with superb contact skills.

• For what it’s worth, Josh Bell and Miguel Sano have each consistently cut down on their strikeout rate throughout the season. Hopefully this shows up with them becoming more valuable fantasy assets heading into next year.

• A good buy-low candidate? Jeff McNeil of the Mets. His .275 BABIP and expected statistics are impacted by a 22.7% line drive rate, which is well below his career norm. I’d expect that to eventually regress positively and for him to start to hit for more average, with slightly more power as well.

• It’s been a very difficult season for Spencer Howard, who has gone from a future staple of the Phillies rotation to trying to turn things around as a Ranger. He’s added a sinker now, but it’s hard to remain optimistic until he cuts down on his fastball usage and goes down into a game. For perspective, he has yet to go past four innings in a game, and the last time he even reached that mark was nearly two months ago. At this point, I’d understand selling him if someone still buys into his prospect pedigree