About Our Top 30 Lists
The evaluation team has painstakingly worked every detail of the forthcoming list. We’ve incorporated our live looks, watched hours of film, consulted with industry folk, and combed through too many data sets to count. This process is much the same for each team we’ll be covering this offseason, and it’s led to what we consider to be our best work yet.
The list is organized by and utilizes the Overall Future Projection (OFP) scale. Although there is no empirical method for ranking or classifying prospects, this method is as close as possible. Prospects are scored on the traditional 20-80 scale, with a 20 representing a non-prospect and a 70 or 80 representing an elite, MVP-caliber player. These are the two extremes, with most prospects occupying something in between. A 50 OFP means we project that player to be a future average big leaguer, while a 55 or 60 OFP means they’re a future above-average or all-star player. Most prospects, however, tend to project in the 40 or 45 OFP range, which are below-average or specific role players, such as utility players or low-leverage relievers.
Sometimes these grades will be more aggressive, while others will be conservative. We’ve included a “Risk” component to help differentiate between these situations. We’ve done our best to apply these grades and risk components relative to all prospects both within and outside of each organization. It’s also important to note that players grow or regress year-to-year, and we’ve also incorporated where these players were ranked on last year’s list.
Below you'll find the top 10 players in the system with full reports of the top 5. The full rankings and reports on all top 30 prospects per team will be available on our Patreon at the 55-tier ($5 level) as we publish them. If you're into fantasy baseball, this tier also gets you the dynasty show, the FYPD list, and the MiLB Daily Sheet during the regular season.
Top 10 Team Rank at First 5 Reports for Free Below
1. Jordan Walker, 3B/OF - 70 OFP
Age: 20 Highest Level: AA
2022 Pre-season Rank: 1 OFP: 60
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 70 | 50 | 60 | 50 | High |
PHYSICAL Walker has an extra large, athletic frame and moves well given his size. He’s tall with a high waist, long legs, and rounded shoulders. There’s strength throughout his entire frame, including his forearms and core, and he has room to further fill out. It’s a very short and quick swing, and he keeps the bat through the zone.
STRENGTHS Walker’s raw power is elite and it plays double-plus in games. He can turn on any pitch but his swing also produces natural power to right center when he catches the ball on the backside and gets extended. It’s true all fields power, and his quick hands and plus bat speed lead to consistent hard contact. Good pitch recognition skills allow Walker to consistently barrel pitches in the strike zone, and he cut his whiff rate by 6% after his promotion to Double-A. His patient approach led to above-average walk rates in the lower levels, and that should continue. Walker’s arm is plus and is a weapon, whether that is at third base or in the outfield. He shows enough athleticism to be an asset in the outfield despite inexperience out there.
WEAKNESSES Walker’s swing lengthened at times in the past when he sold out for power, but he seems like he’s reined that in. He hits the ball on the ground a lot to his pull-side when he gets slightly out front. During the Arizona Fall League, pitchers were able to beat him with sliders low and away. His size and inconsistent hands at third hase pushed him to the outfield, but that actually speeds up his timeline as it gives him a clear path to the big leagues. He probably spends the better part of his career at first base or even as a designated hitter, but he’s not at the point yet.
SUMMARY Walker is a physical presence with explosive power. He is knocking on the door of the big leagues at 20 years old due to the improvements he’s made in his pitch recognition and contact skills. He can be a true franchise player who hits 30+ home runs annually.
EVALUATOR Matt Thompson
2. Masyn Winn, SS - 60 OFP
Age: 21 Highest Level: AA
2022 Pre-season Rank: 6 OFP: 50
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 45 | 70 | 80 | 70 | High |
PHYSICAL Winn has average height and a lean frame that has some room for growth in the upper half. He has strong quads and moves incredibly well on both sides of the ball. He might be the best athlete in the entire minors.
STRENGTHS Winn is among the best shortstops in baseball. He shows incredible range and has no trouble with nearly any play. It’s smooth and effortless defense, and he’s capable of moving well in every direction to snag ground balls or track fly balls. He’ll also leap and dive in impressive acrobatic feats to snag line drives. He has an elite arm and recorded the hardest throw of any infielder ever during the Futures Game at 100.5 MPH. He posts elite run times down the line, and he should be able to remain at least a double-plus runner as he matures. He is also a dynamic and intelligent baserunner. At the plate, Winn’s exemplary contact skills carry the profile. He has no trouble catching up to velocity and connects with pitches in any location. He pairs great contact rates with plus barrel accuracy, and his feel for hitting the ball on the button at optimal angles lets him run high BABIPs.
WEAKNESSES Winn lacks raw power, but he should be able to produce below-average output because he gets the ball in the air. He has two flaws on the defensive side of the ball. Winn struggles with high choppers and will often whiff on those with his glove swipe. He also needlessly lives in fear of committing errors, and he’ll get to a ball that nobody else can and then opt not to throw it because he would have to rush.
SUMMARY Winn possesses supreme athleticism and raw tools, and his defense will provide a ton of value. There are some questions about his future offensive output. He won't produce much over-the-fence power, but he should be able to make enough contact to become an easy regular shortstop for the Cardinals. He has star potential.
EVALUATOR Tieran Alexander
3. Gordon Graceffo, RHP - 50 OFP
Age: 23 Highest Level: AA
2022 Pre-season Rank: 13 OFP: 45
| Fastball | Curveball | Slider | Changeup | Command | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 55 | 60 | 60 | 50 | High |
| 92-98 mph | 77-83 mph | 85-90 mph | 81-84 mph |
PHYSICAL Graceffo’s frame notably filled out while at Villanova, and there’s not much room left for projection. His shoulders are broad and he has narrow hips. Graceffo has a quirky delivery. His left foot starts behind the rubber and his weight shifts when brought forward. He throws from two different arm slots, including a higher three-quarters for his fastball and curveball. His slider and changeup come out of a lower slot.
STRENGTHS Graceffo’s stuff has taken off over the past year and a half. Formerly a high-80s to low-90s guy, he’s now sitting in the mid-90s and has touched 100 MPH on a couple of occasions. He regularly pounds the zone with strikes when throwing his fastball. The slider is thrown in the mid-to-upper-80s, sometimes cracking the 90 MPH barrier, with short bite that plays very well low in the zone. The changeup has excellent separation from the fastball in the low-80s with serious diving action, and the curveball has big depth in the low-80s with great spin. Graceffo throws plenty of strikes and commands everything well.
WEAKNESSES His fastball, despite the excellent velocity and command, doesn’t miss a ton of bats. This is partly due to a generic release and lack of vertical break, but it’s something worth noting. Improving his fastball shape should be a priority in 2023. On top of that, he does catch too much of the zone at times and gets hit hard as a result.
SUMMARY Graceffo is a great story and looks like an absolute steal from the 2021 draft. He’s able to pitch deep into games and has shown great command as his stuff has gotten better. As of now, he projects as a mid-rotation starter with a mix of stuff, pitchability, and strike throwing ability. He could very much start at Triple-A in 2023 and make his MLB debut later in the season, although 2024 seems more doable.
EVALUATOR Tyler Jennings
4. Tink Hence, RHP - 55 OFP
Age: 20 Highest Level: A
2022 Pre-season Rank: 9 OFP: 45
| Fastball | Curveball | Slider | Changeup | Command | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 55 | 50 | 55 | 55 | High |
| 94-99 mph | 79-82 mph | 82-85 mph | 84-86 mph |
PHYSICAL Hence is a standout athlete with high-level flexibility who creates above-average extension with minimal effort. He possesses premium arm talent with double-plus arm speed out of a traditional three-quarters slot. He has a loose and whippy finish to his delivery with a present ability to easily repeat it. There’s plenty of projection remaining on his lean, wiry frame.
STRENGTHS Hence is one of just a handful of minor league starting pitchers who can claim three above-average pitches, and that's led by a clear plus fastball. He has upper-90s velocity with plus command throughout the zone and explosive carry. It’s a nearly unhittable offering at the belt and above. He also throws a power curveball with sharp, consistent 11/5 breaking that plays well off of the fastball. The pitch can freeze right-handed batters for plenty of called strikes. His changeup flashes plus potential with present feel and plenty of above-average characteristics by killing spin and velocity to create arm-side fade. His slider is sparingly used but has the ability to tunnel well off the fastball while creating sweep. He shows excellent pitch sequencing for his age, even if it has been a fastball-dominant pitch mix.
WEAKNESSES Seeing Hence build strength and endurance to go deep into outings is what determines what the potential is for the 20-year-old. It's fairly unknown if there will be any loss in velocity past three innings, and he’s already seen some slight command issues while batting traffic. Continuing to build command of both the slider and changeup could take this pitch mix into an elite level and help relieve some of the pressure he puts on the fastball.
SUMMARY It's becoming overwhelmingly evident that Tink Hence has the stuff to be a front-of-the-rotation starter, but he’s yet to show it over extended innings. All eyes will be on Hence in 2023, and he could become a top 25 prospect if he shows an ability to handle a starter’s workload.
EVALUATOR Ian Smith
5. Cooper Hjerpe, LHP - 50 OFP
Age: 22 Highest Level: NCAA
2022 MLB Draft Rank: 19
| Fastball | Cutter | Slider | Changeup | Command | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 45 | 60 | 55 | 50 | Moderate |
| 89-92 mph | 82-85 mph | 76-80 mph | 78-81 mph |
PHYSICAL Hjerpe has a slender frame with long and loose levers. He is the definition of funk with his delivery and unicorn release characteristics. He works with a slingshot-like arm action coiled tight to his body. Upon release, he creates arm lag that hides his wrist behind his arm before driving down the bump creating great deception. Hjerpe’s hip flexibility is prominent and allows him to create significant hip and shoulder separation to a high energy stack transfer towards the plate.
STRENGTHS Hjerpe has great command for executing his arsenal in and out of the zone. He plays into his pitch traits to maximize their effectiveness. His fastball is a flat vertical approach angle machine with high rising movement and life. His slider is a certified lethal weapon with immense sweep that destroys hitters in the zone. His changeup overlaps with his fastball’s spin traits, creating a great illusion out of his hand leading to an abundance of whiffs. He also mixes in a cutter, although it does lag a bit behind his other pitches
WEAKNESSES While not a glaring weakness, Hjerpe’s fastball lacks significant velocity instead sitting in the high-80s to low-90s. Additionally, past pitchers with his funk and build have had health issues in pro ball, so it begs to question if Hjerpe will continue that trend or finally break free. He is not a sure fire bet to be a SP and does carry some relief risk with his delivery.
SUMMARY Hjerpe has great value as a pitching prospect because he has a quality floor and ceiling. His arsenal is dynamic and he pitches to their innate traits. A professional strength and conditioning plan for Hjerpe holds all the power in the world to send him skyrocketing through the minor leagues and show his dominance on the bump.
EVALUATOR Jackson Thomas
6. Alec Burleson, OF - 50 OFP
Age: 24 Highest Level: MLB
2022 Pre-season Rank: 10 OFP: 45
7. Matthew Liberatore, LHP - 50 OFP
Age: 23 Highest Level: MLB
2022 Pre-season Rank: 3 OFP: 50
8. Ivan Herrera, C - 50 OFP
Age: 22 Highest Level: MLB
2022 Pre-season Rank: 5 OFP: 50
9. Michael McGreevy, RHP - 50 OFP
Age: 22 Highest Level: AA
2022 Pre-season Rank: 4 OFP: 50
10. Jonathan Mejia, SS - 45 OFP
Age: 17 Highest Level: DSL
2022 Pre-season Rank: N/A