About Our Top 30 Lists
The evaluation team has painstakingly worked every detail of the forthcoming list. We’ve incorporated our live looks, watched hours of film, consulted with industry folk, and combed through too many data sets to count. This process is much the same for each team we’ll be covering this offseason, and it’s led to what we consider to be our best work yet.
The list is organized by and utilizes the Overall Future Projection (OFP) scale. Although there is no empirical method for ranking or classifying prospects, this method is as close as possible. Prospects are scored on the traditional 20-80 scale, with a 20 representing a non-prospect and a 70 or 80 representing an elite, MVP-caliber player. These are the two extremes, with most prospects occupying something in between. A 50 OFP means we project that player to be a future average big leaguer, while a 55 or 60 OFP means they’re a future above-average or all-star player. Most prospects, however, tend to project in the 40 or 45 OFP range, which are below-average or specific role players, such as utility players or low-leverage relievers.
Sometimes these grades will be more aggressive, while others will be conservative. We’ve included a “Risk” component to help differentiate between these situations. We’ve done our best to apply these grades and risk components relative to all prospects both within and outside of each organization. It’s also important to note that players grow or regress year-to-year, and we’ve also incorporated where these players were ranked on last year’s list.
Below you'll find the top 10 players in the system with full reports of the top 5. The full rankings and reports on all top 30 prospects per team will be available on our Patreon at the 55-tier ($5 level) as we publish them. If you're into fantasy baseball, this tier also gets you the dynasty show, the FYPD list, and the MiLB Daily Sheet during the regular season.
Top 10 Team Rank at First 5 Reports for Free Below
1. Brooks Lee, SS - 55 OFP
Age: 22 Highest Level: AA
2022 MLB Draft Rank: 5
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 55 | 50 | 55 | 45 | Moderate |
PHYSICAL The son of Cal Poly coach Larry Lee, the 22-year-old is a physical specimen for a shortstop with a muscular frame that’s pretty maxed out already. Lee is a switch-hitter who showcases a slight crouch with both stances and does not have too many moving parts in either operation.
STRENGTHS Lee possesses one of the most potent bats throughout the minor leagues despite being drafted last July. He has exceptional bat-to-ball skills from both sides of the plate, as well as elite pitch recognition. The swing is buttery smooth from the left side, staying compact throughout his swing and short to the ball. The right side is a bit more rigid and long, although he’s still able to drive the ball to all fields. There’s a solid chance he could be a double-plus hitter when all is said and done. He has average power in his bat right now with above-average raw juice, and there’s confidence he can get to that pop during games. Lee has the arm and hands to play shortstop, although he’s likely destined for third base.
WEAKNESSES Lee’s range at shortstop isn’t great, and there’s not much agility in his profile, despite the good hands and arm he possesses. This would mean that Lee moves to third base in due time, where he has the tools to succeed. He’s a fringe-average runner at best, as well, and there’s a slight injury risk given his hamstring and back injuries in college.
SUMMARY Lee looks to be a very fast riser in the Twins system given the potent bat from both sides of the plate. There’s a good chance the hit tool becomes double-plus at some point in the future and the power should begin to come, too. He’s likely a third baseman, which is fine, and he should return to Double-A in 2023. He’s expected to see the big leagues by 2024.
EVALUATOR Tyler Jennings
2. Royce Lewis, SS - 50 OFP
Age: 23 Highest Level: MLB
2022 Pre-season Rank: 2 OFP: 55
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 50 | 50 | 55 | 60 | High |
PHYSICAL Lewis has above-average height and is well-built, with muscle throughout and some projection remaining. He is supremely athletic, although persistent injuries create a danger to his long term athleticism. He stands out for his baseball knowledge and leadership.
STRENGTHS Lewis has always stood out for his athleticism, but he also features genuine all-around ability. He has a quality approach, showing minimal chase rates and above-average contact rates on pitches in the zone. Those metrics are backed up by double-plus bat speed and a swing that can cover the entire zone. He’s athletic and makes mid-pitch adjustments, including an ability to shoot the ball to all fields. He has posted above-average or better exit velocities, and his level swing produces a healthy amount of line drive and fly ball contact, although most of his power is to the pull side. His raw power is plus, but it will play closer to average during games. He’s a plus runner who can stretch doubles into triples and steal bases. He also utilizes that footspeed on the defensive side of the ball, showing plus range at both shortstop and in the grass. He has an above-average arm that should keep him on the left side of the infield or translate into the outfield.
WEAKNESSES Lewis has missed significant time following injury, and those issues arose once more in 2022 after he re-tore his ACL. Ongoing knee injuries create real questions and pose a threat to the player who has often relied on his athleticism and speed to succeed. He showed real growth on the offensive side of the ball in the abbreviated season, but there are ongoing questions regarding his ability to track spin and consistently get the bat on the ball.
SUMMARY Lewis offers an exciting blend of athleticism and tools, and he provided a glimpse of his ability during his brief big league debut. He has the potential to bloom into an All-Star, but the ongoing injuries create too much risk. The former first overall pick must simply remain on the field.
EVALUATOR Jake Kerns
3. Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF - 50 OFP
Age: 20 Highest Level: A
2022 Pre-season Rank: 11 OFP: 50
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 60 | 50 | 60 | 45 | High |
PHYSICAL Rodriguez has a medium frame with a strong, muscular build. He has broad shoulders and long limbs but minimal projection remaining at this point as he’s already filled out significantly from 165 pounds at signing. He’s an average athlete with some twitch. He got lower into his stance last season.
STRENGTHS Rodriguez possesses one of the higher upside bats in the entire minor leagues, and he’s posted strong walk rates and exit velocities thus far. It’s one of the better eyes in the minors, and he will post elite walk rates in his career while not expanding the zone. Rodriguez has plus raw power that already plays during games, and he can go to all fields with authority. He has a strong knack for finding the barrel and doing damage. His max exit velocity was 111 MPH and he averaged over 90 MPH. He just hits the ball hard. Rodriguez is also a solid defensive outfielder who continues to take reps in right and center field. His plus arm is a legitimate weapon, and he has a shot at being an above-average defender if he moves to right field.
WEAKNESSES There’s some swing and miss in the zone, especially when pitchers sequence well and mix in changeups. He also strikes out looking due to a passive approach but, as umpires improve in the upper levels, that should even out. He’s an average runner now and will slow down at least a half grade as he matures. A reduction in speed will likely be enough to move him off center field long term. His season ended early with a left knee strain that later required surgery.
SUMMARY Rodriguez is one of the premier young bats in the minor leagues, flashing elite on-base skills with future 25+ home run power. He needs to make more contact to fully reach his potential and, with him likely sliding over to an outfield corner, there will be more pressure on the bat.
EVALUATOR Matt Thompson
4. Edouard Julien, 2B - 50 OFP
Age: 23 Highest Level: AA
2022 Pre-season Rank: 24 OFP: 40
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 55 | 40 | 45 | 40 | High |
PHYSICAL Julien has a lean frame with a proportionate build. There’s little projection remaining to his frame, which features some length to his limbs. Julien’s swing does not have many moving parts, and he uses a slight leg kick as a trigger mechanism. He began last year with a more upright stance but became slightly closed off and more crouched by July.
STRENGTHS Julien’s bat is what will propel him to the majors. He has one of the best eyes in the minor leagues, drawing walks aplenty with a near passive approach. He rarely expands the zone and posted elite chase rates last season. He also managed to decrease his strikeout rate in the process. His power is above-average in game, and he pummels the ball to all fields. There’s a good mix of bat speed and natural loft in his swing, and he had exit velocities upwards of 109 MPH last year.
WEAKNESSES Julien is not the most athletic specimen on the planet, as there’s stiffness to his swing. He’s a below-average fielder and runner who likely profiles more in a corner outfield spot, as he doesn’t have great range at second base. His arm is also fringe-average at best. While he did lower his strikeout rate last season, his passive nature and stiff swing do hamper his overall output.
SUMMARY Julien is a fun bat and is seemingly a late draft hit for the Twins, although he’s still struggling to find a defensive home. He likely won’t stay in the dirt and could see action in a corner spot, but there’s no denying the potential with his plate discipline and power. Expect a test in Triple-A in 2023 with a potential debut in the cards.
EVALUATOR Tyler Jennings
5. Connor Prielipp, LHP - 50 OFP
Age: 22 Highest Level: NCAA
2022 MLB Draft Rank: 24
| Fastball | Slider | Changeup | Command | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 70 | 55 | 50 | High |
| 92-95 mph | 84-89 mph | 82-87 mph |
PHYSICAL While Prielipp might be shorter than his official listed height, there’s some projection left and plenty of athleticism to his build. There’s slight crossfire in his delivery, and he moves quickly down the mound while throwing from a three-quarters arm slot. The arm action is short and quick. He’s currently finishing up his rehab from 2021 Tommy John surgery.
STRENGTHS Prielipp dazzled in his brief time on the mound at Alabama, mixing loud stuff and great command. The fastball missed bats thanks to the tough angle he creates for batters mixed with his low-to-mid-90s velocity. The slider was one of, if not the best, breaking balls in the 2022 draft class. It sat in the mid-80s with devilish late snap and extremely high spin rates. The pitch is legitimately double-plus and a viable out pitch. His changeup wasn’t utilized a ton, but there’s makings of an above-average offering with solid depth and feel in the mid-80s.
WEAKNESSES The elephant in the room with Prielipp has been the very limited track record he had in college. With the pandemic-shortened 2020 season and his injury riddled 2021 campaign, Prielipp threw just 28 innings at Alabama before opting for Tommy John surgery in late May of 2021. The fastball has its own issues as well, primarily in the movement and spin profile. It lacks solid spin efficiency and has limited vertical life due to his arm slot. He’ll also need to refine his lead leg block to be able to generate more velocity, which will help him in the future.
SUMMARY Prielipp possesses the stuff to go in the top half of the first round had injuries and the pandemic never happened, so this could very well become a steal for the Twins should he return to pre-injury form. There’s a need to refine the fastball and the delivery, as well as more usage of his changeup or an addition of a curveball or cutter with his innate feel to spin. The Twins will likely begin to deploy Prielipp in the low minors to start the 2023 season.
EVALUATOR Tyler Jennings
6. Louie Varland, RHP - 50 OFP
Age: 25 Highest Level: MLB
2022 Pre-season Rank: 12 OFP: 45
7. Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP - 50 OFP
Age: 22 Highest Level: MLB
2022 Pre-season Rank: 10 OFP: 50
8. Marco Raya, RHP - 50 OFP
Age: 20 Highest Level: A
2022 Pre-season Rank: 25 OFP: 40
9. Jose Salas, SS - 50 OFP
Age: 19 Highest Level: A+
2022 Pre-season Rank: 9 (MIA) OFP: 50
10. Austin Martin, SS - 45 OFP
Age: 24 Highest Level: AA
2022 Pre-season Rank: 1 OFP: 55