About Our Top 30 Lists
The evaluation team has painstakingly worked every detail of the forthcoming list. We’ve incorporated our live looks, watched hours of film, consulted with industry folk, and combed through too many data sets to count. This process is much the same for each team we’ll be covering this offseason, and it’s led to what we consider to be our best work yet.
The list is organized by and utilizes the Overall Future Projection (OFP) scale. Although there is no empirical method for ranking or classifying prospects, this method is as close as possible. Prospects are scored on the traditional 20-80 scale, with a 20 representing a non-prospect and a 70 or 80 representing an elite, MVP-caliber player. These are the two extremes, with most prospects occupying something in between. A 50 OFP means we project that player to be a future average big leaguer, while a 55 or 60 OFP means they’re a future above-average or all-star player. Most prospects, however, tend to project in the 40 or 45 OFP range, which are below-average or specific role players, such as utility players or low-leverage relievers.
Sometimes these grades will be more aggressive, while others will be conservative. We’ve included a “Risk” component to help differentiate between these situations. We’ve done our best to apply these grades and risk components relative to all prospects both within and outside of each organization. It’s also important to note that players grow or regress year-to-year, and we’ve also incorporated where these players were ranked on last year’s list.
Below you'll find the top 10 players in the system with full reports of the top 5. The full rankings and reports on all top 30 prospects per team will be available on our Patreon at the 55-tier ($5 level) as we publish them. If you're into fantasy baseball, this tier also gets you the dynasty show, the FYPD list, and the MiLB Daily Sheet during the regular season.
Top 10 Team Rank at First 5 Reports for Free Below
1. Diego Cartaya, C - 60 OFP
Age: 21 Highest Level: A+
2022 Pre-season Rank: 1 OFP: 55
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 60 | 60 | 70 | 30 | Moderate |
PHYSICAL Cartaya is filled out with plenty of muscle. He’s built like a linebacker with good muscle in his upper body. He has a durable frame that will allow him to withstand the normal bumps and bruises that come along with playing catcher. Scouts have labeled him with an 80-grade makeup, and he noticeably stands out for his work ethic.
STRENGTHS Cartaya, even at his young age, is an advanced defensive catcher. He is a leader of men. He moves well behind the plate, has a cannon arm, and is a fantastic framer who presents borderline pitches well. His arm is one of the best in the entire minors and scouts raved about him during 2022. He has all of the tools necessary to be a plus defender in the big leagues. Cartaya also has plus power and can hit enough to reach it during games. He hits the ball hard in the air. He also has an advanced approach that includes good swing decisions and good chase rates.
WEAKNESSES Cartaya’s hit tool lags behind the rest of his profile. It’s a pull-heavy approach that will help his power play, but it doesn’t lend itself to consistent hits. He has a tendency to swing and miss on pitches in the zone, which will also hurt the overall contact profile and probably make him a low average hitter. His bat-to-ball skills still need some work and his power profile may be suppressed as a result. He’s also a well-below average runner.
SUMMARY The quality of Cartaya’s defense is so good now and could conceivably improve, which may make him a future Gold Glove winner. He does need to cut down on the in-zone whiffs, but he has the work ethic to overcome those issues. He projects as a potential All-Star despite the hit tool concerns and any improvement there only increases his ceiling. He’s one of the game’s better prospects.
EVALUATOR Rhys White
2. Bobby Miller, RHP - 55 OFP
Age: 23 Highest Level: AAA
2022 Pre-season Rank: 3 OFP: 55
| Fastball | Curveball | Slider | Changeup | Command | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 45 | 55 | 60 | 55 | Moderate |
| 98-100 mph | 79-83 mph | 85-90 mph | 85-89 mph |
PHYSICAL Miller is an imposing presence on the mound. He has an extra large and athletic frame with a sturdy build throughout. The body bodes well for long term durability. He utilizes a long arm action into a high three-quarters release. It’s a repeatable and athletic delivery, and he’s a short strider downhill despite long levers.
STRENGTHS Miller throws the kitchen sink, regularly working deep into his tool kit to give hitters a different look, which effectively sets up his putaway pitches. His fastball regularly sits at or around 100 MPH with late life in the zone. The pitch has touched 101 MPH. He manipulates the shape of the fastball, as he has a traditional rider, but he can also morph the offering into a devilish two-seamer. The changeup produces tremendous velocity and vertical separation off of his fastballs. He uses it against batters of both handedness, and it has a plus shape to the arm side with late fading action. Similar to the fastball, Miller’s slider comes in a couple variations. There is one that has more sweep, and the other plays more as a cutter. He demonstrates good poise on the mound, with above-average command and the ability to consistently execute his pitches.
WEAKNESSES His curveball is the only below-average offering in the arsenal with its big 12/6 shape. He primarily uses it early in counts or when trailing in the count to steal a strike. Miller improved upon his whiff rates from 2021, but it’s still an area to improve with such a loud arsenal.
SUMMARY Miller has firmly asserted himself as one of the best starting pitching prospects in the entire minors since the Dodgers made him the 29th pick in the 2020 draft. He is a typical suspect amid trade rumors, and for good reason, because he has all the ingredients to be a front of the rotation starter. Going into 2023, there is a fair amount of uncertainty surrounding the Dodgers starting pitching, but Miller figures to play a key part of the Dodgers success moving forward.
EVALUATOR Brandon Smith
3. Gavin Stone, RHP - 55 OFP
Age: 24 Highest Level: AAA
2022 Pre-season Rank: 24 OFP: 40
| Fastball | Slider | Changeup | Command | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 50 | 70 | 50 | Moderate |
| 92-96 mph | 84-88 mph | 84-88 mph |
PHYSICAL Stone is an undersized specimen for a pitcher. He is relatively maxed out for his frame, although there’s some slight room for added weight. There’s some effort to his delivery, and he utilizes a high three-quarters arm slot. Moves very well down the hill.
STRENGTHS Stone was otherworldly dominant last season. He does a good job of holding his velocity throughout starts, routinely sitting 92-96 MPH and touching 99 MPH. His fastball velocity increased throughout the season and was regularly sitting 95 MPH by the end of the year. The fastball offers decent ride and run, and he’s able to command it well around the zone. The changeup is his bread and butter, asplitter-esque pitch with serious diving action in the mid-80s. It was diabolical on hitters in 2022, with a whiff rate north of 50%. There’s an average slider to round out his arsenal, showcasing short bite and some sweep in the same velocity band of the changeup. He shows off average command of his entire arsenal and sequences well, even often pitching backwards with the slider and changeup.
WEAKNESSES Stone’s fastball doesn’t miss a ton of bats despite the low release point. The slider can be inconsistent at times, including being hung over the heart of the plate later in outings. Some refinement is necessary there, which could boost the grade to above-average.
SUMMARY The Dodgers managed to transform Stone’s arsenal into one of the better pitch mixes in the entire minor leagues, led by the devastating changeup that was once sparsely utilized at Central Arkansas. He’ll likely return to Triple-A to start the season, but there’s a good chance he’ll make his debut in 2023. He has the ceiling of a middle of the rotation starter.
EVALUATOR Tyler Jennings
4. Miguel Vargas, 3B/OF - 55 OFP
Age: 23 Highest Level: MLB
2022 Pre-season Rank: 2 OFP: 55
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 55 | 40 | 55 | 40 | Low |
PHYSICAL Vargas possesses a high-waisted and slender athletic frame. There’s fair muscular development throughout the entire frame, and it’s a lean muscular build that’s near maximum physical projection. He works from an even stance with a quiet pre-set in the box.
STRENGTHS All Vargas has done at every level across the minors is hit. It’s a professional approach with above-average bat-to-ball skills. He uses an all fields approach with great barrel control. In addition to the contact skills, he demonstrates game power to all fields, with light tower power coming to his pull side when he unleashes his “A” swing. He has plus raw power thanks to his quick hands and explosive bat speed. He consistently finds barrels and is the type of guy who will not slump for long due to his batted ball quality and contact skills. He should be a future 25-30 home run hitter and a middle of the order presence at the big league level. In addition to his barrel control, Vargas controls the zone as he walks at a high clip while keeping his strikeouts in check. His above-average arm strength will allow him to play on the left side of the infield and in a corner outfield spot.
WEAKNESSES Vargas has lost a step getting out of the box due to his muscular build and projects as a below-average runner long term. Although he has the arm strength to man third base, he is not a great defender and has made too many errors in the field. He saw time in left field and at first base during his brief big league debut and, knowing the team’s willingness to move guys around the diamond, continued appearances at multiple positions may be a potential avenue for playing time for Vargas at the next level.
SUMMARY Vargas made his big league debut in 2022 and ultimately made the team’s postseason roster. He is a professional hitter who figures to be a middle of the order bat for years to come. He has a rare offensive skill set in today’s game, as he hits for average and power while working counts and limiting strikeouts.
EVALUATOR Brandon Smith
5. Nick Nastrini, RHP - 50 OFP
Age: 23 Highest Level: AA
2022 Pre-season Rank: 23 OFP: 40
| Fastball | Curveball | Slider | Changeup | Command | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 55 | 55 | 60 | 40 | Moderate |
| 93-97 mph | 79-82 mph | 84-87 mph | 84-87 mph |
PHYSICAL Nastrini has a good frame that might still have some projection. He possesses a fluid delivery despite command woes, and he utilizes a high three-quarters arm slot that leads to a generic release.
STRENGTHS Nastrini has arguably the best pure bat-missing potential in the entire minors. The fastball touches 99 MPH and has over 20 inches of vertical movement. He zones the pitch nearly 60% of the time and works down with it to set up elite secondary stuff. The changeup is his best pitch, despite having his worst specs. It has little depth with only average fade, but what makes the pitch work is 10 MPH of velocity separation and elite arm-speed. That, combined with the low fastball and lack of depth making them look like the same pitch, leads to a significant in-zone whiffs and chases when thrown in a competitive location. The slider is also disgusting. It’s thrown fairly hard and naturally tunnels off the four-seamer. The curveball has absurdly low zone swing rates and actually gets just as many chases when he throws it below the zone.
WEAKNESSES Nastini’s command of his changeup is bad, and the slider command is even worse. There is also some risk of hard contact given how many pitches he throws over the plate, but the stuff quality limits the risk of that. As a whole, his command is below-average and really the only thing holding him back.
SUMMARY Nastrini has flaws that seem overpowering at first, but they may not really matter. He has plus in-zone whiff rates on all of his pitches and gets chases when he works down in the zone. He zones the fastball at will and, although his misses are often extreme, he has the stuff to still perform when missing in any direction. The stuff creates a floor for his command because chucking it down the middle is actually a viable strategy. He could be a legitimate ace if he improves his command.
EVALUATOR Tieran Alexander
6. Michael Busch, 2B - 50 OFP
Age: 25 Highest Level: AAA
2022 Pre-season Rank: 5 OFP: 50
7. Dalton Rushing, C - 50 OFP
Age: 22 Highest Level: A
2022 MLB Draft Rank: 31
8. Ryan Pepiot, RHP - 50 OFP
Age: 25 Highest Level: MLB
2022 Pre-season Rank: 6 OFP: 50
9. Andy Pages, OF - 50 OFP
Age: 22 Highest Level: AA
2022 Pre-season Rank: 4 OFP: 50
10. Nick Frasso, RHP - 50 OFP
Age: 24 Highest Level: AA
2022 Pre-season Rank: 22 (TOR) OFP: 40