About Our Top 30 Lists
The evaluation team has painstakingly worked every detail of the forthcoming list. We’ve incorporated our live looks, watched hours of film, consulted with industry folk, and combed through too many data sets to count. This process is much the same for each team we’ll be covering this offseason, and it’s led to what we consider to be our best work yet.
The list is organized by and utilizes the Overall Future Projection (OFP) scale. Although there is no empirical method for ranking or classifying prospects, this method is as close as possible. Prospects are scored on the traditional 20-80 scale, with a 20 representing a non-prospect and a 70 or 80 representing an elite, MVP-caliber player. These are the two extremes, with most prospects occupying something in between. A 50 OFP means we project that player to be a future average big leaguer, while a 55 or 60 OFP means they’re a future above-average or all-star player. Most prospects, however, tend to project in the 40 or 45 OFP range, which are below-average or specific role players, such as utility players or low-leverage relievers.
Sometimes these grades will be more aggressive, while others will be conservative. We’ve included a “Risk” component to help differentiate between these situations. We’ve done our best to apply these grades and risk components relative to all prospects both within and outside of each organization. It’s also important to note that players grow or regress year-to-year, and we’ve also incorporated where these players were ranked on last year’s list.
Below you'll find the top 10 players in the system with full reports of the top 5. The full rankings and reports on all top 30 prospects per team will be available on our Patreon at the 55-tier ($5 level) as we publish them. If you're into fantasy baseball, this tier also gets you the dynasty show, the FYPD list, and the MiLB Daily Sheet during the regular season.
Top 10 Team Rank at First 5 Reports for Free Below
1. Pete Crow Armstrong, OF - 60 OFP
Age: 21 Highest Level: A+
2022 Pre-season Rank: 2 OFP: 55
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 50 | 70 | 60 | 70 | High |
PHYSICAL Crow-Armstrong has a compact and explosive frame that’s a similar build to an NFL slot receiver. He has quick twitch athleticism and present strength throughout the frame, and he’s one of the best overall outfield athletes in the minors that still shows some projection remaining.
STRENGTHS Crow-Armstrong is an absolute game breaking defender in the outfield with impeccable routes to the ball paired with double-plus speed and confidence to attack balls moving in all directions. His arm shows both above-average accuracy and carry. He won a minor league Gold Glove in his first full pro season. He also offers a healthy combination of barrel control and bat speed that play exceptionally well in his all-fields approach. He flashes some above-average power to the pull-side and showed an ability to tap into every bit of his power without selling out. As well as his speed plays defensively, it may also be the strongest tool going forward in Crow-Armstrong’s bat. He’s a short strider that reaches top speed extremely quickly, and he could be a 20+ stolen base candidate annually with added extra base pressure on every ball hit into the outfield.
WEAKNESSES As Crow-Armstrong makes his way into the upper minors and against more consistent quality pitching, improvements in chasing pitching outside of the zone will be the biggest area of concern. Improved patience against breaking balls early in counts will help remove a good bit of the weak contact in his game.
SUMMARY After playing just a handful of games in 2021, Crow-Armstrong looked every bit of the five-tool player that made him a first round pick in 2020. A true double-plus defender in center field gives the Harvard-Westlake product an easy path to the big leagues, but it’s the bat that could push Crow-Armstrong into all-star potential. There's a real chance to see him patrolling the friendly confines within the next two years.
EVALUATOR Ian Smith
2. Kevin Alcantara, OF - 55 OFP
Age: 20 Highest Level: A
2022 Pre-season Rank: 4 OFP: 50
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 60 | 50 | 50 | 55 | High |
PHYSICAL Alcantara possesses a tall, slender frame with limbs for days. He’s an electric athlete with some room still left on the frame, although he already has plenty of strength. He toned down a leg kick trigger during the season and has seen positive results, including cutting down on swing and miss.
STRENGTHS Alcantara has power to all fields and can get to it on both fastballs and offspeed pitches. He generates power with good shoulder-hip separation, which also helps him to successfully turn on pitches on the inner half. His hands are good enough to wait back when he recognizes offspeed pitches. He’s shown good zone recognition and an ability to draw walks throughout his career. He runs well, which helps on the defensive side of the ball, and he’s shown instinct to steal bases, too. He’s got the skills to stick in center field long term.
WEAKNESSES His long limbs will ensure some swing and miss in his game throughout his career. He showed improvements in pitch recognition and accessing power to all fields, however being tested against better arms will determine if those are tangible improvements. There’s still some risk involved, despite the coming out party in 2022.
SUMMARY There’s a huge ceiling here for the electric outfielder. He’s burst onto the scene in a big way since being traded from the Yankees to the Cubs. He has the skills to be an offensive force, especially if his hit tool winds up being average. He’ll always be power-over-hit, but that’s not an indictment on his hit tool. He also has a very good chance to remain in center field. This is the kind of player who just makes fun things happen on a baseball field. There’s plenty of risk, but the upside is among the highest in the Cubs system.
EVALUATOR Trevor Hooth
3. Cade Horton, RHP - 55 OFP
Age: 21 Highest Level: NCAA
2022MLB Draft Rank: 12
| Fastball | Curveball | Slider | Changeup | Command | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 55 | 60 | 45 | 50 | High |
| 93-96 mph | 78-81 mph | 84-90 mph | 86-89 mph |
PHYSICAL Horton possesses a lean frame with some bulk to his lower half. He has excellent arm strength and utilizes a high three-quarters arm slot with an easy delivery. His stride is short and there’s not too much extension.
STRENGTHS Originally a two-way player at Oklahoma, Horton utilized a very strong run down the stretch to Omaha to surge up draft boards with a dynamic arsenal. The fastball will sit in the mid-90s, touching 98 MPH, with serious riding action and some cut at times. The pitch plays extremely well up in the zone. The slider is the primary breaking pitch, a mid-80s pitch that touches 90 MPH with two-plane tilt and bite, and he can manipulate the shape. The harder version has more two-plane movement, while the slower version is more of a gyro pitch. The curveball is thrown hard in the high-70s to low-80s with great depth and spin. The changeup has potential, as it is thrown in the high-80s with firm movement and good location. He showcased good command down the stretch and was outright dominant in Omaha.
WEAKNESSES There’s not much of a track record to Horton in college, as he was sidelined during his freshman year at Oklahoma due to Tommy John surgery and only pitched 53 innings last year. With that comes durability concerns. The changeup also needs some refinement in terms of movement.
SUMMARY Horton is likely only scratching the surface of what he’s capable of on the mound. While there’s not much of a track record, Horton took advantage of a decimated college pitching class and performed excellently at the best possible time. There’s middle-of-the-rotation potential right now. He’ll likely begin his career in either Single-A or High-A in 2023.
EVALUATOR Tyler Jennings
4. Brennen Davis, OF - 50 OFP
Age: 23 Highest Level: AAA
2022 Pre-season Rank: 1 OFP: 60
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 55 | 50 | 60 | 60 | High |
PHYSICAL Davis remains tall and lean with room to grow. He’s a long-levered athlete with two-way potential, and he’s a high character prospect who has strong baseball acumen. He dealt with back injuries during the 2022 season, and those are something that can linger for a long time.
STRENGTHS Davis has plus bat speed, and the ball jumps off that bat when he makes quality contact. He’s shown the potential to be an extra-base machine, and his raw power is plus. He should be able to get to it if he makes consistent contact. He generally has a quality approach at the plate, and he’s capable of working counts and drawing walks. Davis has pretty evenly split his time across all three outfield positions, and he should be an average or better defender wherever he ends up. He moves gracefully with plus speed when he’s healthy and can cover a lot of ground as a result. His arm is plus and fits well in right field.
WEAKNESSES Davis battled injuries and ineffectiveness throughout the entirety of 2022. He’s seen his strikeouts rise since reaching the upper minors, and he made too many poor swing decisions on pitches off the plate in 2022. There were instances where he looked wholly uncomfortable in the box, which could have been tied to his back injury or lack of confidence while mired in a slump. Velocity away gave him fits, and he simply swung through too many pitches. He didn’t move with the same explosiveness that he had in the past, and he wasn’t a threat on the base paths or in the outfield. His health will be an ongoing question, as will his bat-to-ball skills.
SUMMARY Davis has seen his stock drop over the last calendar year, and 2022 was essentially a lost season. He still possesses among the most upside in the entire organization, but there is far more risk involved than before. He will need to make more consistent contact and remain healthy to fulfill his promise. He has the talent to overcome all of his deficiencies and once again emerge as an elite prospect.
EVALUATOR Jake Kerns
5. Hayden Wesneski, RHP - 50 OFP
Age: 25 Highest Level: MLB
2022 Pre-season Rank: 5 (NYY) OFP: 50
| Fastball | Cutter | Slider | Changeup | Command | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 45 | 60 | 45 | 55 | Moderate |
| 91-95 mph | 87-90 mph | 79-83 mph | 85-89 mph |
PHYSICAL Wesneski is tall and broad with a filled out frame. His delivery is repeatable, and he throws from a traditional three-quarters arm slot. He lands softly, although there is a tendency to fall off toward first base.
STRENGTHS Wesneski has a starter’s repertoire that includes five distinct pitches. He throws both a sinker and a four-seam fastball, and he incorporates both with similar frequency. His four-seamer was more successful in his big league debut, but both pitches feature deception and are legitimate pitches against righties. He also infrequently incorporates an average cutter that works in the upper-80s. His best pitch is a plus slider that has two-plane movement. He regularly utilizes its natural sweeping action away from righties, although he is also capable of backdooring and running it inside to lefties. He shows a feel for a changeup that has arm-side fade. He’s capable of throwing all of his pitches for strikes, and his command projects as above-average overall. He does well to keep the ball on the ground.
WEAKNESSES Wesneski primarily uses three pitches against righties, often abandoning his cutter and changeup entirely. This can lead to some predictability in the overall pitch mix, although he generally makes up for it with quality command. He scrapped an ineffective curveball once he reached the big leagues. There’s still some work to be done in terms of improving the consistency of his changeup and cutter.
SUMMARY Wesneski fits the mold of a traditional backend starter, although there’s perhaps a touch more upside if he taps into a bit more velocity or improves his changeup. It’s not overwhelming stuff as a whole, but he has quality pitchability and a putaway pitch in his slider. His control and command help drive the profile, and he should be a relatively safe bet to help the big league club in 2023.
EVALUATOR Jake Kerns
6. Porter Hodge, RHP - 50 OFP
Age: 22 Highest Level: A+
2022 Pre-season Rank: Unranked
7. Cristian Hernandez, SS - 50 OFP
Age: 19 Highest Level: CPX
2022 Pre-season Rank: 3 OFP: 55
8. Ben Brown, RHP - 50 OFP
Age: 23 Highest Level: AA
2022 Pre-season Rank: Unranked (PHI)
9. Jordan Wicks, LHP - 45 OFP
Age: 23 Highest Level: AA
2022 Pre-season Rank: 5 OFP: 50
10. Alexander Canario, OF - 45 OFP
Age: 22 Highest Level: AAA
2022 Pre-season Rank: 14 OFP: 45