This off-season we set off to write our first book. Changes and challenges arose, so we've pivoted to releasing our top prospect lists & reports through the site and our Patreon. We're excited to finally show you the hard work of our evaluating team the last few months.
Below you'll find the top 10 players in the system with full reports of the top 5. The full rankings and reports on all top 30 prospects per team will be available on our Patreon at the 55-tier ($5 level) as we publish them. If you're into fantasy baseball, this tier also gets you the dynasty show, the FYPD list and the MiLB Daily Sheet in season. We plan to add all the reports to player pages on the site shortly after the season begins.
Top 10 Team Rank at First 5 Reports for Free Below
1. Triston Casas, 1B - 55 OFP
Age: 22 Highest Level: AAA
Pre-Season Rank: 1 Pre-Season OFP: 55
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 60 | 40 | 60 | 40 | Moderate |
PHYSICAL A large physical presence, with height and a broad build that exudes raw strength. Has worked hard to improve conditioning since entering pro-ball and moves far better on the basepaths and in the field better than he did as an amateur. Massive raw power due to lumberjack-like frame.
STRENGTHS Easy plus hit tool with above-average bat-to-ball skills, elite on-base abilities, and strong swing decisions. Casas has feel for the barrel, and raw power to dream on, but his approach at the plate is contact-driven and controlled. He shortens up with two strikes and cuts his stride, but has the power to still drive pitches deep to the gap. Projects to add more game power as he matures but has a strong baseline of bat to ball and on-base ability that should keep the production high even if he doesn’t reach his power ceiling.
WEAKNESSES May never fully materialize into the future 40 home run hitter you can see in glimpses. At times will give away the outer part of the plate. Below-average runner, poor fielder that did not have the range or footwork at third, still has a ways to go at first base. Body will need consistent maintenance and conditioning.
SUMMARY One of the best first base prospects in the minors, Casas pairs contact, on-base ability, and top-of-the-scale power projection. He’s big-league ready entering 2022 but is still a few years away from developing into the peak all-star first baseman ceiling. With a mature and polished approach and skillset, there’s a high level of foundational skills that great hitters possess. It’s a matter of continuing to grow as a power hitter and to a lesser extent defensive first baseman. Should be a part of Boston’s big league roster at some point in 2022.
EVALUATOR Geoff Pontes
2. Marcelo Mayer, SS - 55 OFP
Age: 19 Highest Level: CPX
2021 MLB Draft Rank: 1
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 55 | 55 | 55 | 45 | Moderate |
PHYSICAL Large frame with long levers and broad shoulders. Shows combination of strength and athleticism. Well-coordinated and moves fluidly. Live body, good athlete. Can project more power without giving up much athleticism. Shows a quiet confidence in his game.
STRENGTHS Quick, explosive hands that generate good bat speed from quiet load. Shows feel for barreling the ball for hard contact and present pull-side power. Good strike zone recognition, he doesn’t expand often. Easy to see him growing into plus raw at maturity; a potential middle-of-the-order bat. Actions on the dirt are smooth and fluid with the ability to stick at short if he doesn’t outgrow it -- has the hands, instincts, and arm to slide to third base if necessary.
WEAKNESSES Aggressive in the zone, gets himself out on pitcher’s pitches right now; approach needs refinement. Not a lock to stick at short, may lose a step as he fills out. Small chance he ends up a tweener if he has to move to third and the home run power never comes.
SUMMARY Marcelo Mayer is long and athletic in the mold of the modern shortstop who can field the position while bringing an impact bat to the plate. Every facet of his game is smooth from his quiet load at the plate to his natural actions in the field that make everything look easy. The feel to hit is already there and he should grow into above-average or better game power as his body matures. If he does that while maintaining enough athleticism to stick at short, he could become one of the premier players in the league. There’s a long way to go, but the building blocks are there for a star with the floor of a second-division regular.
EVALUATOR Joe Drake
3. Nick Yorke, 2B - 55 OFP
Age: 20 Highest Level: A+
Pre-Season Rank: 10 Pre-Season OFP: 45
| Hit | Power | Field | Arm | Run | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 50 | 45 | 50 | 45 | Moderate |
PHYSICAL Filled out frame, but still athletic. Legs and lower half are developed, but he’s got room to add strength with his upper body. He had shoulder surgery his junior year of high school which looks to be way behind him now. At the plate, it's a slight leg kick as a trigger and it's plus bat speed. It's a compact, simple swing.
STRENGTHS Yorke might have one of the better hit tools in all of the minor leagues, and it has proven to be better than advertised. The Sox went off the consensus draft board a bit and took Yorke in the first round and appear to have struck gold here. Yorke has a fantastic approach, makes good contact, and uses all fields. Outstanding plate coverage leaves no real way to attack him, and his compact stroke with plus bat speed allows him to get the barrel on anything due to great barrel control. He handles heaters, spin, whatever you throw at him. He’s got league average power to his pull side, and went on a homer binge at the end of the season as he got accustomed to High-A.
WEAKNESSES Yorke isn’t flashy in the field and is just a fringe runner. He can catch what is hit at him and make all the plays though, which is all that’s required when you can hit like this. If for whatever reason he can’t stick on the dirt, left field is the best remaining option for him.
SUMMARY Yorke has one of the best hit tools in all of the minor leagues, and I’m intrigued with what type of numbers he can put up at Fenway with his ability to spray the ball around and his average power to his pull side. This is a future top of the lineup hitter though, and a top 50 prospect in baseball.
EVALUATOR Geoff Pontes
4. Bryan Mata, RHP - 50 OFP
Age: 22 Highest Level: AA
Pre-Season Rank: 6 Pre-Season OFP: 50
| Fastball | Curveball | Slider | Changeup | Command | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 40 | 55 | 50 | 40 | High |
| 93-97 mph | 74-77 mph | 85-87 mph | 82-85 mph |
PHYSICAL He’s filled out considerably from his early days in pro ball and is now a very solid 6-3, 240 pounds. The body is going to require some work as he matures, especially his lower half. Mata has a very fast arm and it stands out in his delivery.. Significant effort in the delivery, but he repeats it well. Can lose his release point when he overthrows. We haven’t seen Mata pitch in a competitive game since 2019. After pitching well at the alternate site in 2020 he unfortunately required Tommy John Surgery in April 2021.
STRENGTHS Mata is built like a starter and features mid to high 90s two-seamer as his primary offering. It doesn’t generate a large number of whiffs but he has success getting weak contact with the pitch. It pairs well with his plus slider which also gets more grounders than whiffs. He will also mix in a standard four-seamer, a changeup, and a curveball.
WEAKNESSES Health is obviously the biggest concern right now, and the hope is Mata should be back to pitching in games sometime this summer. His command can also be spotty because he has so much movement on his arsenal.
SUMMARY After impressing at the alt site in 2020, Mata ended up having Tommy John surgery shortly after Spring Training in 2021. That puts on hold one of the more promising pitchers in the Boston organization. Mata has three average or better pitches, and his next step was cleaning up some mechanical issues and working on command. Those are now on hold as he awaits his elbow to heal. If he can get back on track post TJS, there’s no reason at this point to think he can’t succeed around the previously expected levels.
EVALUATOR Sam Hale
5. Jay Groome, LHP - 50 OFP
Age: 23 Highest Level: AA
Pre-Season Rank: 5 Pre-Season OFP: 50
| Fastball | Curveball | Changeup | Command | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 60 | 45 | 50 | High |
| 91-95 mph | 81-84 mph | 82-85 mph |
PHYSICAL Tall, big-bodied frame with broad shoulders and a thick proportioned shape. Big frame will require continued maintenance and conditioning. Physique has improved from pre-Tommy John surgery shape. Has had lingering injury concerns dating back to his prep days. Intercostal strain in 2017 cost him two months, he had Tommy John surgery in May of 2018 and missed the rest of 2018 and a good chunk of 2019. 2020 was wiped out due to the pandemic but he did pitch at the alternate site. Pitches from a ¾ arm slot and it's a drop and drive operation. He repeats very well.
STRENGTHS The conversation with Groome starts with the big curveball. It has 1-to-7 break, and sits around 81-83. Has an excellent feel for the pitch. Can throw it for a strike or bury it below the zone for a chase. It's a plus offering. His fastball is above-average, sitting 92-95 and touched 97 last season. It has some natural cut to the pitch and he’s shown four-quadrant command of the heater. His overall command looked solid at the alternate site and he showed improved command in 2021 as well.
WEAKNESSES Injuries have taken a ton of development away from Groome. He’s spent a lot of time on the shelf since turning pro. His changeup is a fringy offering, and when it's not on it leaves him without a viable third pitch.
SUMMARY Groome already has one big league out pitch in his curveball, but his fastball and curveball combination should be enough to miss bats. Navigating through the order twice without a viable third pitch is the tricky part. Once thought of as a future front-line arm as an amateur, he has the look of a mid-rotation piece now. He was added to the 40-man roster this winter and should start next season in Double-A.
EVALUATOR Matt Thompson
6. Jeter Downs, 2B - 45 OFP
Age: 23 Highest Level: AAA
Pre-Season Rank: 2 Pre-Season OFP: 55
7. Blaze Jordan, 3B - 45 OFP
Age: 19 Highest Level: A
Pre-Season Rank: 12 Pre-Season OFP: 45
8. Jarren Duran, OF - 45 OFP
Age: 25 Highest Level: MLB
Pre-Season Rank: 8 Pre-Season OFP: 45
9. Brayan Bello, RHP - 45 OFP
Age: 23 Highest Level: AA
Pre-Season Rank: 20 Pre-Season OFP: 40
10. Josh Winckowski, RHP - 45 OFP
Age: 24 Highest Level: AAA
Pre-Season Rank: Unranked