Retrospectives are back baby! This off-season, I’ll be taking a look at the three main 2022 Bowman releases. It’s more about the players and how they’re progressing in baseball within the hobby landscape, not an examination of how good or bad the product still is or can be – but that’s an easy measuring stick to summarize with.
With this release Topps really hit us with a shotgun blast the likes of which we had never seen before outside of the Draft product, giving us 1st Bowmans of over 130 prospects. That’s 40+ more than 2021 Bowman Chrome. Nearly three years later, it hasn’t proven to provide great depth in the checklist. There’s just a lot of filler in this product (I’ve omitted 42 names due to retirement or lack of affiliation). But there’s a very high top-end, and plenty of players who could yet make an impact in the majors. Let’s take a look!
Quick note on what I’m including in the “top prospect” section, since there might only be 3 players in that section if I didn’t move the goalposts. Anyone who has had and/or could still easily have hobby significance is included in that section.
top of the crop
For almost two years in the majors now Elly De La Cruz has burned white hot on the biggest stage. Sure, there’s a lot of flaws in his plate approach and he strikes out a lot, but it doesn’t matter. He just has so much dynamism to his game and it all shows on the field. My son, faced with picking a new number for his new baseball team, chose 44 because “Elly is a guy I like to watch”. Pretty good taste, that kid. The aggressive approach largely works for him because everything he hits is hard and coming from a 6’5” frame, also well leveraged. He led the league in SB in 2024 and is one of the fastest runners in the league, an aspect that makes his fielding range also exceptional. He figures to remain a hobby dynamo for many years to come, and just now heading into his age-23 season, the best is yet to come.
As a Brewers fan, I love Jackson Chourio, and I love that the Brewers have shown they love him too. As a former #1 prospect in all of baseball, the hobby at large loves him too. That’s a lot of love for a player, but it’s tempered in this release by the fact that his autographs are in Bowman Chrome, not this one. Only a historic year from Paul Skenes and a similar-but-better season from Jackson Merrill kept him from winning ROY. We’re going to be comparing Merrill and Chourio for a long time, but I think most folks peg Chourio as having a higher ceiling, as do I. It’s very common for players who debut very young as he did to have discipline issues in their first few years. He wasn’t an exception to that, which is really saying something considering he hit 21 HR with a .275 average and a low 20’s K%. There’s just a lot more coming, and expectations are sky high, as they should be. I’m really eager to see what he can do next.
James Wood’s hobby status has been all gas, no brakes since release. When this product dropped in 2022 he was coming off a pro debut where he had a 1.000 OPS, with a 2nd Round pedigree to back it up. He continued with .956 OPS in the low minors in 2022, then really broke out with 26 HR in his age-20 season in 2023. Heading into this past season had a little bit of work to do in the high minors as his K% had ballooned a bit, but he quickly proved that was no longer an issue in AAA. Then, due to a minor injury and the maddening management of the Nationals front office, he was held down for another 5 weeks beyond the Super Two date. No 2024 Rookie Cards for you Mr. Wood! July 1 was his debut, and while it wasn’t a picturesque rookie season he continued to show his massive power potential while employing an approach at the plate that gives him a floor of granite. He does hit the ball on the ground too much. That, and not pulling the ball much hurts his overall in-game power. But there’s definite maturity yet to be had, and his ceiling of a 35+ HR, .400 OBP bat is quite clear. He even has a bit of dynamism in the field and on the bases. To put it briefly, he’ll be a hobby superstar with just a little more growth. Everyone sees it. I’m not telling you anything new here.
MLB-experienced players
Obviously Matt McLain missed the entire 2024 season as he hurt his shoulder in Spring Training, then his ribs while rehabbing. But in his 2023 rookie season he showed us that he can, with just a little more proven consistency, be an above average major leaguer. It’s something that wasn’t definitely the case when he drafted 25th overall in 2021. Posting 3.7 WAR in 89 games certainly (with 43 XBH, .290 BA) changes that outlook in a hurry! He did go to the AFL this fall and hit 6 XBH in 13 games – it really just proved his health headed into the offseason, nothing more. McLain’s hobby outlook isn’t the moon, but for now, it does seem to be an occasional All-Star caliber player. That’ll always keep him interesting in the eyes of the hobby.
Brendan Donovan is just a paper auto subject in this release and had his Rookies in many other products in this same year, so his inclusion largely an afterthought here. That is to say, there’s plenty more desirable Donovan cards in 2022. But the player himself is rock solid. He won a Gold Glove in that rookie season and has provided a wealth of defensive versatility with average offensive production. He’s quite an important member of the Cards. That said, outside of those rookies there is and should be little hobby interest. There’s just no more ceiling for the 28 year old.
Bryan Woo is also just a paper subject in this product, and was then included in zero other pack-issued products until 2024. That includes other manufacturers. So that makes interest in his cards in this set quite robust as his relevance has spiked with his ascension as a prospect and then his extremely promising incremental improvements from rookie to sophomore seasons. A pair of brief DL stints were the only thing standing between him and Cy Young votes in 2024. He’s truly a control freak, walking just 13 hitters in 121 innings. His fastballs are just above average in velocity, but he’ll show you two different ones, both of which he puts wherever he wants. That alone makes him tough to square up, but he also mixes in two different sliders and a change. I don’t think he has the ceiling of an ace, but a #2 SP-type with K numbers that should improve as he further hones his craft seems like the path the soon-to-be 25 year old is headed. The hobby situation of a pitcher with $25-30 paper autos is a pretty comical one to me.
Ceddanne Rafaela proved himself a valuable piece to the Red Sox in 2024. His best attribute is his cannon for an arm paired with plus speed. That, plus an injury to Trevor Story, had him playing a fair deal of SS which didn’t go terribly, but he’s a better fit in CF (which pushes Jarren Duran to LF where he's a GG candidate – nice situation for the Sox). On the offensive side Rafaela is very, very unpolished. His chase and BB% were among the worst in the majors, and his contact rate wasn’t a lot better. Still, the overall offensive numbers were near-average because he really gets a lot out of his balls in play. Hitting 15 HR with as much value he brings to the defensive side is palatable at the bottom of the order. To get a bump to the top of the order, he’ll need to advance in his discipline – just a .320 OBP probably gets him that promotion – but that represents a huge jump. Being a major piece of a team in one of the strongest hobby markets leaves him quite relevant, and he has more ceiling yet to be tapped.
Brayan Bello has been a mid-rotation piece for the Red Sox for a few years now. His best attributes are limiting hard contact via the ground ball and durability. He’s a traditional sinker-baller with a complementary slider and change that gets the job done. As his FB does have above average velocity there’s some hope of strikeouts and his K% did tick up a hair in 2024, but it was still well below average. Being such an established starter in such a strong hobby market leaves him with some significant hobby interest. But as for a bigger ceiling now entering his age-26 season, I don’t think it’s in the offing.
It’s easy to forget that Taj Bradley is only entering his age-24 season, with 46 career MLB starts already under his belt. He got a late start and didn’t play until May, but he was a rotation mainstay for the Rays in 2024, averaging over 5.5 innings per start. There’s some bloat in his season line due to a rough patch he hit in August, which is fairly common among young pitchers. If we exclude that month, his ERA would have been around 2.80 instead of 4.11. It was a really impressive season and a definite improvement from his rookie year – it’s just a little tricky to see. There was even a pitch mix change to explain it. He started throwing his splitter much more often, which augmented the effectiveness of his cutter. With a 96 MPH fastball to boot, he got plenty of swing-and-miss. I think Bradley is a great name for the hobby that won’t ever be treated as such in Tampa. Don’t be surprised to see a mid-3.00 ERA with 200 K this year, assuming health. I would take him for half the price of Brayan Bello (his current market) all day.
We’re over 800 AB’s into Oswaldo Cabrera’s MLB career, and it’s fair to think he is what he is at this point. His below average bat, in all aspects, just hasn’t earned him the role of an everyday starter. Of course his defense, and more specifically defensive versatility, is what has him in an important role with the Yankees as a 2/3rds-time player. He started games at 3B, 2B, 1B, LF, and SS in 2024, with a primary role at 3B on tap (for right now) to begin 2025. But he also started 0 games at higher than 7th in the Yankees batting order, marking that his offensive deficiencies were well known. Even in the Yankees extremely strong hobby market, there’s only some slight hobby interest, which I think is entirely fair.
On the surface Jhonkensy Noel really seems like another 1-dimensional Guardians power bat in the tradition of Edwin Encarnacion on the high end, or Franmil Reyes on the low (don’t you dare put Josh Naylor in that pile!). Potential 30 HR bat in 2025 if given full run? Yep. Potential liability everywhere else? Likely! Big Christmas is and has always been an aggressive hitter to an extreme fault, and has always gotten to his plus power with enough frequency to ameliorate it. This should be a fun game to play in 2025 – which is higher, Noel’s OBP or his ISO? They were within .020 of each other in his MLB debut. I’ll leave you with that, and add that I’ll eat my shirt if he’s a 2.5 WAR player in the coming year. But he is a major league talent with considerable hobby upside in short spurts.
With the way the hobby currently treats Curtis Mead, you’d think he’s 27. But no, the Aussie is only 24 for 2025, and while he hasn’t latched onto a full-time role in the majors yet and his 2024 season (in AAA/MLB) was a small step back, I think there’s still a possibility that he could be a thing. Mead has always shown a little bit of pop to go with a lot of contact but with an ugly chase issue that lessens the quality therein. With the likes of Brandon Lowe and Junior Caminero at his positions, there’s not a clear path to playing time early in the season, but with both Lowe and Yandy Diaz approaching free agency, there could be an opportunity soon. I don’t think he’ll ever be a hobby hero, but I’m still standing in the minority in thinking he could still be a .280-hitting, 20 HR bat in a few years time.
Jordan Wicks only threw 67 innings in 2024 because of a forearm strain at the beginning of the year, then an oblique strain that wiped him out until September. I think it’s a lost season in total – I’m not considering his numbers being worse than 2023 heavily at all. But Wicks, as a former 1st Round collegiate pick, has always been more of a high floor, mid-rotation potential than one with truly high upside. That’s shown with consistency in his 81 total big-league innings. How it plays out as he looks to have a fully healthy 2025 remains to be seen. However, he’s looking at starting the year at AAA, as the Cubs added Matthew Boyd to be a third lefty in their rotation (Imanaga, Steele). Not a great sign for the 25 year old.
There’s something to be said about becoming an MLB-quality player by itself, and Lenyn Sosa has achieved that. Of course, the White Sox are terrible and Sosa doesn’t bring any type of dynamic offensive element to the table. The hope is that now entering his age-25 season, his hit tool makes another leap like it did in 2024. That saw him, meritoriously, as a lineup mainstay in the 2nd half. He definitely played better than his current competition of Bryan Ramos and Miguel Vargas. There should be some heat coming for his playing time with Chase Meidroth and Colson Montgomery (and Andre Lipcius and Nick Maton), but I’d bank on him being a fairly safe bet for AB’s in hopes that he becomes a league average hitter. There’s still not a lot to love here.
In the last two years Ryan Bliss has smacked 111 XBH and stolen 110 bases. At just 5’7”, he really gets a lot out of the contact he makes. How much contact he makes in total is the big question. Back in 2023 he made a lot of contact, and that yielded a surprise line of 23 HR and a .304 average. Last year in AAA he came back down to earth, but it was still enough to earn a call-up and (likely) a part time role with the Mariners to begin 2025. His speed will always play on the bases but he’s limited to 2B and maybe a little LF defensively. His K%, which was 31 in his debut, likely needs to tick down into the mid-20’s to earn regular playing time, but there’s still hope he can get there. He’s a worthwhile hobby name to keep an eye on, but there’s no guarantees for his upcoming age-25 season.
Trey Sweeney put up a well-into-the-positive-WAR with the Tigers in his 119 PA debut, but it was all tied to his defense at SS. That’s really saying something on how he’s come in that regard, as he was viewed as highly questionable to stick at the position when he was drafted. What’s highly questionable now and throughout his time in the minors is his ability to make enough quality contact to stick as an everyday player. His power is not in question. If he makes improvements to pitch selection there’s a 15-20 HR bat here, albeit with a sub-.330 OBP. The Tigers seem to have a semi-regular role carved out for him in 2025 at the bottom of their lineup, where we’ll get to see if he can make good on anything that had him as a 1st Round pick.
Jonatan Clase saw 4 separate stints in the majors in 2024, none of which amounted to more than 27 AB’s. So, it’s very much fair to consider him a prospect, which is fine because he’s still only 22 on Opening Day. He’s always had blazing speed, but in the upper minors his lack of base-stealing acumen was exposed and only had a 74.5% success rate last year. He’s also not a great defender so is bound to LF as long as better options are around. He’s sacrificed some of his fringy power in the name of putting bat to ball, but his contact rate still isn't good. And despite his speed, he’s never run a GB rate above 40%. I think he’s still quite a bit raw, but it’s more in a between-the-ears way. If he figures out the mental side of his game I’m 100% certain he’ll be a big league regular and a top-of-the-order threat. The Blue Jays’ signing of Anthony Santander likely squeezes out his roster spot with the big club. But for now, that’s OK because he’d just be a bench bat / pinch runner type.
Will Wagner turns 27 in July, but given his nitro-boosted cup of coffee after being traded to the Blue Jays, there’s a small amount of hobby relevance. Even with the moves the Jays made this offseason, Wagner still seems ticketed for significant playing time in 2025. He’s hit at literally every stop, including .305 in that MLB debut I alluded to. That type of performance will need to continue, because he’s not a positive asset in the power or defense department. Nice player, definite MLB talent, but not likely to improve his hobby stock much from where it is presently (unless you’re into the bloodline-collecting thing).
Randy Vasquez has been up-and-down no fewer than 12 times in the last two years with the Padres and Yankees. If that doesn’t tell you who he is, I don’t know what to tell you. Still, he made a total of 20 starts with the big club in 2024 and ate up 98 innings with a sub-5 ERA. He gives up a ton of contact, posting one of the worst K% among starters in the majors. He’s slated to be a backend piece of the Padres rotation in 2025, but every time he goes out there Padres fans cross their fingers and hope the balls don’t get hit too hard.
There were times when he walked a fine line of hobby relevance, but it’s clear that Dustin Harris has fallen off of it. He did make his MLB debut in 2024 and homered in it, but keep in mind he turns 26 in July. His minor league numbers (a .259/.378/.431 line across AA/AAA) didn’t stand out. The defensive fears of being 1B-only are a thing of the past and he can even play CF now which boosts his value to any franchise he’s a part of, but he’s truly more of a neutral defensive asset. A lefty batter with reverse splits, I could see him sticking as a weak-side platoon somewhere. We certainly haven’t heard the last of Dustin Harris, but he might be hobby-dead.
With 54 HR, Jack Suwinski has more career MLB HR than any other player in this checklist to date. The downside is that it’s in 338 career games and comes with a K% over 30. He has good discipline, he just has some massive holes in his swing and whiffs a ton – something the Pirates are well aware of as his playing time diminished in 2024. In fact, that glaring weakness was even exposed at AAA. He does have good speed as well so he’s played a lot of CF – but his arm is poor and he’s a better fit for LF. These two key flaws really limit his future, which we know by now is not of great interest to the hobby.
When the Angels acquired Niko Kavadas at the trade deadline it gave him the clear path to the majors he needed as an already 25 YO, but did he really earn it or make the most of it? Nope – 38.7 K% in the majors, with a sub-.300 OBP. He is a very, very passive hitter who lies in wait to strike with his powerful lefty stroke. That K% has just been so high in the high minors though – he could definitely stand to be a bit more aggressive. These warts leave him as a platoon bat, and it’ll largely be as a DH because Nolan Schanuel is a much better 1B. The Angels were smart enough to realize all this and traded for Jorge Soler this offseason, so it’ll be back to the minors with Kavadas to begin 2025.
Darell Hernaiz has never been a sexy prospect from a numbers perspective, but he has a history of squaring up liners with regularity and provides a utility profile to an A’s team that’s in desperate need for it. With the signing of Gio Urshela, Hernaiz has to beat out Max Schuemann and/or Miguel Andujar to make his first Opening Day roster at age 23. That’s a pretty nice feather to have in his cap if he can get it. Still, don’t look for a breakout – look for middling offensive numbers, and if we see those, then maybe we see an age-25 breakout in 2026 that’d have him getting regular playing time?...or he could just as easily just not progress and be an up-and-down Quad-A type. With a ceiling that’s seemingly low and a bad team context, I wonder if anyone’s even read this far.
MLB-experienced quick hits: Louie Varland has long been a swingman-type and probably still is, but he seems to have hit a wall of diminishing return. His AAA numbers weren’t even great in 2024…I truly don’t think Oscar Colas is in the White Sox plans anymore. They gave him significant run in 2023 where he proved himself to be a liability on multiple fronts, then he played the entire 2024 season at AAA where he barely cracked a .400 SLG. Not great for a 26 YO “power hitter”…Though Chase Silseth was the first player from the 2021 MLB Draft to reach the majors, we’re not going to play this game with him, right? He’s a reliever in starters’ clothing (which he’ll continue to wear in 2025), and it’s not fair to anybody that the Angels still don’t see it. Nobody saw it in 2024, as he was hurt for most of the season…Samad Taylor hasn’t been given much of a chance to show off his plus wheels in the majors yet, but such is the life for a guy who’s now in his fourth organization and profiles as a backup utility player…I can’t imagine the Nationals plan to have Darren Baker around by design – he’s completely punchless offensively and really only viable in LF…Jose Fermin has been used sparingly by the Cardinals as a backup to everything, but he was very bad (11/71, 2 XBH) with the bat with the big club in 2024…Ronny Henriquez made his debut back in 2022 as a mid-game multi inning reliever but hasn’t stuck in the majors, bouncing on an off the 40-man a few times.
top prospects
There’s a slight down trend, but Colson Montgomery is firmly a Top 75 prospect everywhere. He’s a complete package at SS, or at least the White Sox see him as such, never having played any other position as a pro. He certainly has an above average arm and the fielding chops to stick there. His speed (and by extension perhaps the full extent of his range) leaves a little to be desired, but as long as his hit tool ticks back up as many expect it to, he should be a franchise cornerstone. His power is above average, and that part of his game finally showed up in 2024 with 18 HR. I don’t think he’ll end up as a fantastic hobby name, but peak seasons of hitting .260 with 20-25 HR and playing a solid SS puts him in the middle of MLB starting shortstops. The White Sox have been holding a spot for him to take up his mantle, but to me his contact numbers and by extension K% needs to tick back down – to the low-20’s as a benchmark – to earn a call-up. It wasn’t that low all season in 2024, and ended up over 28%. Not great. An older prep in the 2021 draft, he’ll be 23 before the season starts, so it’s not as if he’s super young either. The hobby at-large still has a ton of interest and I think he’ll have a long career in the majors, but I’ve never been in love with him and don’t think I ever will be.
James Triantos hit .300 as a 21 year old in AA and AAA in 2024 with a sub-12 K%. Impressive stuff. His power hasn’t bloomed yet, but I’m not worried about him being a punch-and-judy type. There should be double digit HR with maturity. He did steal 47 bases this past season, but he’s not a burner – he just has an acumen for it, which should continue for at least the first half of his career. That he’ll have a career in the majors is a near certainty. His position is less certain – he’s not better than Ian Happ in LF or Nico Hoerner at 2B, nor does he have the arm to be a regular RF. Also, to put it bluntly, to date he doesn’t have the dynamic bat that’ll knock down the door to the majors. He’ll be a need-based call-up in 2025. But there’s some serious growth and progression left to be had. What does it matter if it’s via another year at AAA? He’s a good prospect and I think a breakout will happen – but it might be as late as his age-24 season.
The trade for Kyle Teel really throws a wrench into the long-term projectability of Edgar Quero onto the White Sox roster, doesn’t it? Teel is clearly the stronger defender at catcher, but Quero projects as average there as well. I don’t think Quero’s bat is strong enough to be a full-time 1B (not to mention his stature isn’t ideal for the position), but I do think in time he can be an MLB regular, albeit with just 15-20 HR upside. I do think the White Sox will find a place for him – switch-hitters with definitely average (maybe better) better hit tools don’t grow on trees. There’s a rock solid floor hobby-wise with Quero, I just don’t think there’s much potential to ascend beyond where he’ll be when he’s called up.
Though his season was interrupted by two unrelated injuries, Max Muncy does have some hobby ceiling and he still figures to reach the majors at a young age. He boasts significant AAA experience with some success already. On the downside, he’s an aggressive hitter who chases too much, and tends to miss when he does so, leading to a fairly high K% that could get ugly in the majors. But when he does make contact, it’s quality. There’s nothing magical about his exit velocity numbers that makes me say he definitely has above average power within that contact, but it’s likely he gets to 50+ XBH on an annual basis – assuming he can make enough contact. Defensively he’s stepped up – Jacob Wilson is probably the better SS, but Muncy can handle that position as well, or 2B/3B. As he is now, just one thing – making better swing decisions – stands between him and becoming an average big leaguer, with probably a little better than that in the realm of possibilities.
The Waiting for Godot of Guardians outfielders, since he first hit AA in 2021 George Valera has seen (clears throat) Steven Kwan, Nolan Jones, Oscar Gonzalez, Alex Call, Will Brennen, Will Benson, Richie Palacios, Johnathan Martinez, Jhonkensy Noel, and Angel Martinez get the call before him. Injuries are partially to blame, but it’s not just injuries. His contact rate has never been good enough for the Guardians to stomach considering his power has only been showing as above-average. Don’t get me wrong - he remains on the cusp of a call-up and should see time in the majors in 2025. But he also tore his patellar tendon in September and likely won’t be ready until May or June. So…more waiting. The hobby is absolutely correct in being largely out on him – he doesn’t feel like a player who will have a long big league career. (It was a procedural move that he was DFA’d and re-signed - that doesn’t concern my thoughts on his prospect status.)
Adam Macko is an easy story to root for, having come from Slovakia to Ireland to Canada as a kid. He’d be the first Slovakia-born player to reach the majors in 65 years. In fact, he almost certainly will be. It’s just a question of when and in what role. He’s been deployed as a starter almost exclusively where his command has improved enough that he likely sticks there. He’s has been able to maintaintain strong velocity with more maturity, and his fastball is one of three pitches with above average or better projection. He gets a lot of whiff. The BB% even ticked down to single digits, only to get hurt and miss two months of the season with an elbow injury. So, relief risk remains on the forefront. He did briefly return to a AAA promotion, so he’s maybe(?) healthy for now. Already on the 40-man, could this be the season we start to see him fulfill the promise of a mid-rotation power lefty?
The Tigers had Roberto Campos repeat High-A in 2024, and I feel that made him a failure in the eyes of a lot of collectors. It doesn’t. He doubled his HR output from 2023 and improved his offensive numbers across the board. As he doesn’t turn 22 until June, it was still completely appropriate for him to be at that level. His plate skills look fairly average across the board, but he makes up for it with the incredible strength in his physique that helps him get to power. It’s still not a perfect translation to baseball – he hasn’t had a breakout yet. He looks the part of modern RF-prototype with a great arm and good-enough speed, so position isn’t an issue. I, for one, am eager to see how he handles AA – he’s ready for it. I’m not predicting a breakout, but if it looks like he’s breaking out – it’s likely not a fluke.
Kahlil Watson’s performance remains a flat line, and it’s not one that’ll get him regular playing time in the majors. Sure, he was only 21 and played in AA all season. Sure, the highlights show some really impressive HR and hard hit balls. But he’s never hit above .233, never had a K% under 28%, and his defensive issues are becoming worrisome. He can play some 2B, but in the Guardians system his skills there are dwarfed by many other prospects. He still has good speed, but his OF reps transitioned to LF instead of CF at the end of the season – a negative sign for his abilities in the grass. His path to the majors lies in improvements to swing decisions – something he hasn’t been close to average with. The power will play, but nothing else has really progressed and that leaves Watson with a ton of risk.
other prospects
Among all 2021 prep draftees, only a couple guys named Wood and Merrill had more hits than Gavin Conticello in 2024. So why isn’t he at all highly regarded? I think it’s mostly because he remains rather raw in an overall sense – it’s expected from a former 8th rounder though. There’s nothing special about his contact and chase rates, so that success he experienced in 2024 might be a hair fluky. He’s a really aggressive hitter. I think if just tones down the frequency in which he swings it’d make for upward ticks across the board and allow his power – long considered his best attribute – start to shine more frequently. He has a great arm that fits well in RF, but as a former 3B, he’s also still learning how to play the outfield and there’s a chance he ends up at 1B. We’re a few years away with Conticello, and his future isn’t fully in focus yet. But I certainly think he’s trending positively and a worthwhile dart throw for the hobby.
I do think Damiano Palmegiani gets a call-up this year with moderate improvements to his AAA numbers. He’s definitely shown power for three years running now, but with a 1B/3B/LF profile there’s a preference that he’s more well-rounded offensively. The problem is his contact rate is well below average, with not enough discipline to entirely make up for it. Not an easy fix. Still, he hits the ball plenty hard. Hot streaks are bound to happen, and when they do, with an awesome name like his, there’s bound to be brief periods of hobby relevance.
Jorbit Vivas was actually called up by the Yankees in 2024, but never got into a game. All the same, it wasn’t a banner season for the soon-to-be 24 year old. He dealt with two separate injuries and saw his SLG dip to the mid .300’s. That’s not going to cut it for a prospect limited to 2B & 3B. All the same, he still made a good amount of contact. He’ll just head back to AAA to begin 2025 where he’ll look to prove that 2024 was a fluke, and he can be a valuable utility piece. I don’t think he’ll ever be a strong hobby name though.
Repeating Hgh-A as a 20 YO, Hendry Mendez showed great improvements to his quality of contact in 2024 and posted a 127 wRC+, the highlight of which is a .386 OBP. He’s an excellent contact hitter, but it’s not quite savant-level. That’s an important note because his arm and speed are poor, and his power has shown no improvement – it was still just a .107 ISO. For a player like this to make it as a major league regular, their hit needs to be double-plus. His just isn’t, to date. But fear not – there is hope in the power department, as his ground ball rate was still an extremely high 60%. If he elevates just a bit more, there should at least be plenty of doubles in his future. Even if his ISO just ticks up to the .130 -.140 range, he’d be back on track to being an MLB regular. There’s a long way to go, and at only 21 that’s OK. But it does seem becoming a star at this juncture is a complete longshot.
Born in 1599, Diego Velazquez made a tremendous impact in the Spanish royal court as their leading artist….errr…wrong doc…Diego Velasquez is a nice prospect if you’re making a bet on a deeper one to make the majors, but impact is his main issue. This younger Diego reached AA in 2024 as a 20 year old and showed his glove will definitely play up the middle, with a utility profile being the likeliest outcome. His hit tool is impressive – he ran a 90% zone contact (96th percentile) in AA. It’s a little surprising that he ran even a 17 K% with that mark, but it’s because he’s a bit passive. That should change with maturity. What we don’t know will change with maturity is his lack of power. He’s never run an ISO over .140, and it ticked back this year as he adjusted to higher levels. Velasquez provides great value to his organization, but hasn’t quite ticked up to being valuable for the hobby to date.
The latest news on Andry Lara is that he was added to the Nationals’ 40-man this offseason, so there’s now no roster construction obstacle to the majors. I don't think he has a strong chance of a call-up just yet though. A solidly-built 6’3”, Lara ramped up his innings all the way to 134 in 2024, and there’s no doubt he can handle a big workload now headed into his age-22 season. However, his pitch mix has changed in an uninspiring way for the sake of the hobby. Back when he was an amateur (he was a rare seven figure International pitcher signee) his fastball was already into the mid-90’s with promise for more. But with maturity he’s dialed back his velocity in the name of more command. While he has a great slider, there’s no legitimate third pitch to keep lefties honest. Not that he can’t get lefties out – he just can’t generate much whiff against them, as his K/9 drops from 11 to 7 depending on handed-ness. Development of a third pitch (he has a fringy change that may or may not be it) will be critical to sticking as a backend starter long-term, but proximity to the majors and solid performance leave him in a good spot to reach the majors by early 2026.
Victor Lizarraga is a legitimate SP prospect who’s proved his durability (over 90 innings every year) while moving up a level each of the last three years. Most impressively, there’s been no slip in his performance from level to level. In 2024 at AA, his BAA hit a three year low and his K/9 hit a three year high, though with that he took a step back in command. Lizarraga was very young in this release – he’s still only 21 for the entire 2025 season. For now, he’s just a back-end SP projection because he doesn’t throw particularly hard despite his 6’3” frame, and he doesn’t have a true out pitch either. But without many more levels to jump up, velo gains and development of a trickier breaking pitch may be where his focus may now lie. Still an interesting prospect, albeit one to just put a pin in.
Creed Willems is trending positively. An 8th-round prep catcher in 2021, it’s really impressive that he reached AA at age 21. It’s largely due to his cannon for an arm, but he’s also made significant offensive strides in both the hit and power departments. He totaled 17 HR in 2024 with a K% around 20% – pretty good for a catcher! Of course, quality of contact leaves something to be desired. So does his receiving game, and that’s what really throws his potential to be a big-league regular most in question. He’s also completely blocked by Samuel Basallo and Adley. It’s a good problem for the Orioles to have though. I think with just a little more growth, Willems will be a fill-in backup C as soon as 2026, with the upside that he gets close to full playing time as a C/1B/DH in the same time frame.
Pablo Aliendo gets an incomplete grade on his 2024 season because he missed two months due to an injury, but he didn’t show any growth in 231 PA’s repeating AA. His best skills are his agility behind the plate and his plus arm strength, but he’s far from great at throwing out runners – it’s pretty frustrating. There’s a ton of swing-and-miss in his offensive game and he chases quite a bit, but he’s also been able to show some over-the-fence power with regularity. If he gets his throwing accuracy issues figured out, I would venture to say that being a backup C with the occasional DH appearance is a realistic ceiling for him. Clearly not a guy to be interested in for the hobby.
Adrian Sugastey played in just 52 games in 2024 before going out to an (undisclosed) injury and not returning. He trained for Premier 12 games in November (but didn’t appear in any games), so I would guess the injury will not impact his 2025. That’s 3 years in a row with the injuries now though. He’s only 22 and already at AA — to me there’s no concern with his not making it to the majors at this juncture. His impact at the majors, or if he ever makes it as a full-time player, is definitely a concern though. He’s a very nice athlete behind the plate and is making strides with his arm – the complete picture of which was occluded by those injuries. He employs a very aggressive approach and makes a ton of contact, but for the first time in 2024 his quality of contact was affected. We’ll see if he can make adjustments moving forward. He needs to, because there has never been much power, nor does there figure to be moving forward. That leaves him as an afterthought for the hobby.
Luca Tresh is a little different from the catchers above as he doesn’t have the fallback of being a positive defender. In fact, in a system with Carter Jensen and Blake Mitchell he’s likely to move off the position soon. So, now entering his age-25 season he’s up against the wall to prove that his offensive value outstrips his defensive showcomings. At sub-6’ he’s not an ideal 1B, and hasn’t played the position yet, but that figures to be his landing spot. His bat has shown flashes of being valuable enough to play there, but he’s been squarely average offensively at AA for the last two years. I wouldn’t make the bet that Tresh ever becomes a big league regular (or back up C), but he could get a cup of coffee at some point, maybe this year.
I don’t think it’s ever going to happen for Jose Ramos. His numbers have universally trended down for three consecutive years now (granted he moved up some levels). He still plays CF pretty well and he still gets to power in games (17 HR in 2024), but he has an awful contact rate. Even in the zone it was under 70% (9th percentile). That had him spending the second half of this season on the development list. We’ll see if that time yields any headway as he likely heads back to Tulsa for a third consecutive season at age 24.
Warming Bernabel really just goes up there to hack, and he’s pretty good at making contact. But long gone are the days where he’s shown the promise of future 20 HR seasons, and the correlation of hyper-aggression to less-than-stellar quality of contact is quite apparent. To advance past AA he’ll have to show some sort of approach. With little speed to his game and not-so-great athleticism at 3B, either his power or hit will need to tick up to above average to become a big league regular. Both have shown flashes – just not recently. He’s still only 22 until June, so there’s time for him to turn it around.
Eddys Leonard elected minor league free agency then immediately re-signed with the Tigers on a minor league deal – it happens all the time but it’s also a sign that all parties involved realize that he’s a fringy prospect. It’s mostly to his benefit that he won’t go in with a 40-man spot. It gives him time to prove his health (he missed time with two separate injuries last year) and that he can improve at pitch identification. The latter is a clear flaw in his offensive approach, and it'll be super easy to attack at the highest level. As he’s average everywhere else at the plate, he’s going to have to perform well in Toledo to get called-up for significant AB’s in a utility role. I think he will get some usage in the majors this year, but when it’ll be is the Tigers’ prerogative and as I see it now, won’t be much playing time.
The 35 K% Joshua Baez posted in 2024 marks his third straight year with a mark over 30 – not a great sign that he’ll ever make enough contact to make it to the majors. Still, he’s also been able to best a .160 ISO with even more untapped raw power, so intrigue remains. Quality of contact is also not generally an issue. What is an issue is a 33% O-Contact at High-A, which puts him in the 3rd percentile. Coupled with middling O-Swing, why would you ever throw him a strike? It’s a glaring hole in his game that needs to somehow, some way get cleaned up to be at all viable in the high minors. He’s not a special OF defender, and speed is not a forte. He’s going to have to continue to show game power, but as he is now, I think as he faces more advanced pitchers, that in game power will diminish.
The Angels are an annoying development system in which to track prospects, but I think it’s safe to say Denzer Guzman has an extremely small chance of being a big-league regular at this juncture. He plays a solid SS – in fact it’s the only position he’s ever played in 300 professional games – but that’s really the long and short of his tools that project as average or better. Guzman was really young for AA in 2024, but he’s never been a power hitter, and his contact numbers have always been hurt by the trifecta of whiff, aggression, and chase. There’s nothing that looks like it’ll sniff even fringe-average offensively, including speed. Still only 21 for the 2025 season, his defense has value and he should stick around in the minors – there’s a chance he makes it as a defensive replacement eventually.
I’m out on Aeverson Arteaga, but not because of his poor performance in 2024. I’m calling this past year just a lost one – he had a significant injury (TOS surgery) and didn’t debut until late July. It was clear he just never found a groove. My personal reason for being out is that I don’t think he’ll hit enough to be an MLB regular. He is a very strong defensive SS, and he’s shown some pop, so there’s at least a stronger chance than Guzman to make the majors here?
Now entering his age 25 season, Victor Labrada has shown speed, an ability to play CF, and a good eye at the plate. It should go quite a ways towards making an MLB debut in the next 18 months. However, it’s not a profile that’ll likely ever earn a lot of playing time, especially with Texas. He’s not interesting at all for the hobby, but better than just a quick hit.
I don’t want to forget a couple of players we haven’t seen in awhile. Ian Lewis has intriguing tools but missed the entire 2024 season due to a visa issue. He’ll be 22 before the season and hasn’t been above the Complex league, so he’s one to just sock away in the back of your mind palace. Dariel Lopez put together a nice 2022 season as a 20 YO at High-A that could have been the precipice of a breakout. Then he suffered an injury that was termed as a “dislocated kneecap” in an offseason workout, which made him miss 2023. He was then drafted by the Giants in MiLB Rule V Draft, but never played in any games for them before being released a few weeks ago. My guess is that his knee injury was more significant than stated, but it could've been a separate injury – there’s no reporting on what injury caused him to miss 2024. I normally don’t mention released players, but he was good enough in 2022 and still young enough now to bear mention.
Pitcher quick hits: Franco Aleman was hurt for a few months, but his numbers as a reliever in AAA look really good, and the Guardians added him to the 40-man this offseason. A decent sign he sees time in the majors this year, at least…Alvin Guzman converted from position player to reliever in 2024, but only got into 4 games…Ruben Salinas (Zayed in this release) has also been strictly a pitcher since 2022, but hasn’t gotten past the Complex…. Traded to the Rockies in the C.J. Cron deal, Mason Albright is still starting games and keeping hitters off balance. However, there’s nothing resembling high-K upside and at Coors especially, that’s not going to work…Christian Roa was claimed by the Marlins where he pitched in relief in AAA….Norge Vera attached himself as a MiLB FA with the Athletics, struggled in Low-A at age 24…Danny Watson and Jack Carey may eventually make it to an MLB bullpen, but not in a hobby-significant way ...Alejandro Hidalgo and Robert Dominguez have been hurt a lot and have never seen the high minors.
Hitter quick hits: After being released by the Phillies, Yhoswar Garcia doubled his career high by swiping 65 bags for the Brewers Double-A affiliate Carolina, and also showed solid contact numbers. Something to keep an eye on to see if he can find success in AA in his age-23 season...Also still only entering his age-23 season, Euribiel Angeles shows really good contact numbers and little else. Same as it was in 2022. He is in AA now, but if he gets a call it’ll be in 2026 or beyond and as a part-time 2B…Eduardo Lopez will be 23 in May and hasn’t seen AA yet because he can’t stay healthy and is a 5’11” 1B with no standout tools. However, the Phillies saw fit to take him in the MiLB portion of the Rule V Draft, so we’ll definitely get to see how he handles more advanced hitting this year…Logan Cerny and Peyton Wilson have some dynamism to their games but their contact rates have gone down every year, and don’t seem to have enough of a hit tool to make it…Luke Waddell sits at the edge of a need-based callup to Atlanta (2B/3B/SS), but offensively he’s so limited that he’ll likely never get to triple digit AB’s in the majors in a single year...Bryan Acuña hasn’t shown anything that either of his brothers did at his age – but just keep in mind that his age is still only 19 for most of the 2025 season…Allan Cerda is now in his 3rd organization (Twins) in the last year. He has some tools, namely power and on the defensive side, but he has major contact issues and hasn’t hit over .208 since 2021…Brandon Valenzuela, Ricardo Genoves, and Shane McGuire are organizational soldier-type catchers and probably won’t ever get called up, but there’s a 5-10% chance… Jheremy Vargas, Rodolfo Nolasco, Roismar Quintana, Matt Fraizer, and Luis Verdugo have a tool or two, but if they ever make it to the majors it’s not likely to be anything that’s close to a hobby-significant way…Robby Martin Jr, Lucas Dunn, Brady Allen, Tyler Whitaker, Justice Thompson, Maikol Escotto, Fran Alduey, and Fidel Montero are still active but have almost zero chance of making it.
summary
This is a top-heavy product highlighted by James Wood and Elly De La Cruz’s first cards. However, there’s not a player beyond those two in the entire Chrome autograph checklist (maybe Taj Bradley?) that has real long-lasting star potential (Woo being paper, Chourio having no autos). It was a pretty poor hit rate considering the massive amount of 1st Bowmans we have here. However, that volume will always cede some value as some of these players become big-league regulars.