Welcome to the annual Bowman Chrome preview where we (Max and Joe) evaluate from a Hobby perspective every prospect with a 1st Bowman card (and a few extras as well) in 2023 Bowman Chrome. It’s Ethan Salas’s world, and we’re all just living in it. Strap in and enjoy.
We classify each prospect in three ways - a Tier ranking, a Risk grade, and a Ceiling grade, all within the context of the baseball card collecting hobby.
Tier Ranks
Tier 1 - Cream of the crop. Combination of high-end Hit and Power tools that won’t end up as full-time designated hitters. Power/Speed combo players. Elite SP 1 pitchers (very rare). Potential for being perennial All-Stars and award winners.
Tier 2 - Bats that may lack in a certain area such as top-end power, three true outcomes players with huge power, great real life/fantasy players, but not hobby-elite, or tantalizing raw talents. High-end SP 2 pitchers with additional positive factors such as team, arsenal, pedigree, etc.
Tier 3 - May have some hobby interest due to a single factor such as prospect pedigree, team interest, general hobby hype, an interesting carrying tool, etc.
Tier None - The likelihood of widespread short-term hobby interest, and most likely long-term as well, is close to none. Plenty of pitchers, catchers, role players, hit-tool-only bats, Quad-A power bats, defense-first players, etc. to be found here. Hobby lottery tickets where the odds are stacked against you.
*Catchers and Pitchers are often knocked down a tier just due to their position.
Risk and Ceiling Grades
We also assigned Risk and Ceiling to each player to provide a quick glimpse into each player.
Risk is a general measure of how far a player has advanced toward making an impact in the majors. So anyone at the Complex level, by rule, is almost always a 9 or 10 risk. On the flip side, a player at the AAA level is most likely a 1-3 level of risk.
Ceiling is just how significant the player has the potential of being for the hobby. I’ll provide the definition of a 5, and you, reader, can interpret everything from that: a maximum realistic projection of an MLB regular with 10-15 HR power, .260 average, and one other element of interest (team context, excellent speed, etc).
A few notes on DSL players. With them and a few others, there is a range of Ceiling listed because the variance is simply too great to peg down into a single number. Unless there’s a callout in the writeup or their Tier is different, the DSL players fit into the very bottom of Tier 3.
arizona diamondbacks
Tier 1
None
tier 2
Deyvison De Los Santos, 3B, 20
All the glory and all the pain from our writeup in May’s release has looked true. The pain - he’s still rough with plate discipline, and he still looks like a better bet to move to 1B than stick at 3B, but he’s still seeing more time at 3B than 1B for now. The glory – fantastic raw power that’s resulted in 18 HR at AA. His performance trend was squarely up as well to end the season. He struggled mightily in the first few months, but in August/September he hit .290/.304/.565 slash. As you can see even in his success, the discipline was ghastly and came with a 27 K%, but it also half his season’s HRs. It continues to be a mixed bag for DDLS – there needs to be some improvement to his weaknesses to make it in the MLB, but at 20 he has plenty of time to do it. With a somewhat successful year in AA behind him, his risk profile ticks down a notch, but only one. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 8
Ruben Santana, 3B, 18
Santana had base Chrome earlier this year, and is being revisited with autographs in this release. In May we were intrigued by Santana’s potential 5-Tool profile. While his speed has moved backwards and he proved a bit more raw defensively, everything else took a really nice step forward in the Complex. He continued to show he’s one of the more advanced hitters in the 2022 J15 class, and got to more game power this year, slugging 20 XBH in 52 games. In total he fell just shy of a .300/.400/.500 slash, which for a 18 YO is still excellent. It’s also important to note that while he does have a mature body already, there’s still room for growth in his upper half - so there’s likely more strength to add to his raw power yet. He’s still not a zero in speed either, but it’s a downward trajectory there. Overall, a very nice prospect for that hobby - no reasonable pause to his max projection as an above average MLB regular with 25+ HR power. To me, it feels like he just didn’t get that promotion to Low-A because he’s better served working on his glove in an instructional setting. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 8
Cristofer Torin, 2B/SS, 18
A less-heralded signing out of Venezuela in the 2022 International Free Agency period, Torin has quickly shown a potential elite hit tool. As Juicy Jensen described it, he has elite visual processing. Think along the lines of a Steven Kwan/Luis Arraez starter kit. Torin, at least for the moment, has enough speed to get to double digit steals as well. Unfortunately, his power is capped which also caps his Hobby Ceiling at Tier 2. The only way that changes, as we saw with Arraez, is if he can flirt with a .400 batting average. Arraez cards went sky high as he was living in that territory, and there will be people speculating on Torin with similar hopes.
While I like Torin a lot, the lack of power and concerns about his lack of physicality are real. It’s really not a hobby-friendly profile, but in no way, even with his initial struggles in his first month of Single-A ball, should Torin be anywhere but Tier 2. Risk: 6, Ceiling: 7
Tier 3
Demetrio Crisantes, INF, 19
A 7th-round overslot pick in last year’s draft (5th round money), Crisantes uses his knack for the barrel to dive the ball to all fields. It’s a swing that’s made for contact but with maturity there should be some HR pop. I can’t find any information on why he didn’t play defense this year, but when he does he’s likely to end up as a 2B, and should have some legitimate range there. With a great year at the Complex in tow, he should head to Low-A to begin 2024 where I’d expect him to continue to show a mature plate approach and if it all clicks, a quick rise through the system. He’s definitely a hit-first / questionable power-type that should draw middling hobby interest, but I’m personally in on the dream. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 5
tier none
Christian Cerda, C, 20
We’re happy to re-hash Cerda here where he has his first autographs, because our previous assessment form May has changed quite a bit. We remarked back then that really more than anything, he needed to start showing power. That’s happened this year, as he slugged 20 XBH in his full-season debut at Low-A before moving up to High-A where his SLG is now over .400. To go from a near-zero in power to this fringe-average profile, while moving up levels is most impressive. He’s still a pretty passive swinger, but that matters less when he’s stroking the ball with authority and running a .400 OBP. He’s still a Tier None name but he has a tangible ceiling now, and having progressed as he has, a bit of a floor as well. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 4
Junior Franco, OF, 21
Stepping into the box at 5’9” with a stocky frame Franco isn’t the most imposing physical threat, but he does swing hard. It worked last year, swatting 14 HR in 400 AB’s at Low-A. However, as expected his extreme pull tendencies have been exploited this year against more advanced pitching in High-A – he hasn’t been as successful as his quality of contact has diminished. It’s really just poor decision-making, so while physical growth isn’t on the table, becoming a more complete hitter is. That said, it’s hard to make the projection for him to have average game power or hit. And though he has some speed, it’s corner-OF only for Franco. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 3
Juan Corniel, SS/2B, 20
A defense and speed middle infielder who doesn’t provide any impact with the bat, either from an average or power perspective. He regularly makes highlight plays in the dirt with leaping grabs aplenty. The lack of offensive tools will prevent Corniel from ending up with an everyday role without approach changes - he regularly runs 50% or greater ground ball rates which is going to be a problem against MLB pitching and defenses even with his plus speed. As a switch-hitting bench speed and defense option, Corniel likely has an MLB future of some sort, but not one that is hobby relevant. Risk: 7, Ceiling: 3
Atlanta Braves
tier 1
None
tier 2
Luis Guanipa, OF, 17
The Braves biggest signing of the 2023 International Free Agent class for $2.5M, Guanipa started off his pro career in the DSL like a bat of hell. In his first 17 games, he hit .324 with 22 hits, six doubles, and 3 home runs to go along with 12 stolen bases. He cooled off significantly as the season went on, but it does show what Guanipa’s ceiling could potentially be. Which is a high average power hitter with impactful contact and double plus speed on the basepaths. While video was scarce (DSL streams are unofficial, scarce, and quality is wildly inconsistent - Thanks Manfred!), I liked the bat speed and foot speed down the line. Looking at the rates, he was putting the ball in the air almost 50% of the time, which isn’t ideal. I expect the Braves to tone that down a bit and continue to refine his approach to put his power/speed tools in a position to succeed. I’m keeping him in Tier 2 given the fall off in the second half of the DSL season, but the Hobby interest is likely going to approach Tier 1 given his initial hype, prospect pedigree, and team collectability. And I wouldn’t blame them one bit. Risk: 10, Ceiling: 7-9
tier 3
None
tier none
Royber Salinas, P, 22
Salinas is still a Brave in this product even though he was traded to the A’s back in December, so take that wrong-team context for what it’s worth. I’ve always thought of Salinas as a future high-leverage RP who’s starting for now, because he has a bad body and I don’t believe his command will ever be good enough. While I still think that to be the case, he’s improved this year, at least in terms of BB. It’s all about the stuff with Salinas. He has three potential plus pitches that work well with each other - a mid-90’s fastball, a mid-80’s power slider, and a mid-70’s curve. It all comes down to commanding those breaking pitches. He also hasn’t seen a full load this year because of an elbow injury, but he’s come back from it. But as his delivery has some effort, injury has always been a concern many have been quick to spot. It’s just another reason to think he ends up as a reliever. I think he’ll be great in that role, and the faster he moves to it the faster we can say he’s easily just a low-ceiling, high floor MLB piece. He’s just not there yet, so we’ll leave his risk and ceiling a little higher. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 5
Jair Casanova, OF, 19
Casanova is a tough evaluation, but it’s clear that power is his best tool. He’s been in Low-A Augusta all year, but hasn’t gotten a full run of playing time. It could be a minor recurring injury, or it could be that they only want him in LF and those AB’s are taken for a portion of the time. Either of those could explain why he’s so far failed to build upon his solid pro debut last year. Through the K% being near 30% and the BA near .200, he’s slugged 7 HR in 220 AB’s though. That’s significant for a teenager. We can treat all those negatives with a grain of salt until we see him playing 5 days a week, but we can’t treat his body with a grain of salt. It already looks like it’s maxed out, and being under 6’, there’s not a lot of natural levers. He’s a below average runner already and if he puts on any bad weight, he’ll get pushed to DH. For a profile as risky as his already is, that’s not great. For the hobby, he’s a super high-risk dart throw, but if it hits it’ll be in the area the hobby cares most about. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 4
Javier Valdes, C, 24
Over the last two seasons, Valdes has transformed himself from a non-prospect to a viable future backup catcher, at least from the offensive side of the equation. There are still question marks he can provide the necessary skills from behind the plate, but if he’s not starting back there, then it becomes a lesser concern. The approach in the box is solid, with plus walk rates and relatively low strikeout rates. Add in that he’s now showing at least average power and you have all the makings of that aforementioned backup catcher. From a baseball perspective, that’s a successful outcome for a former 21st round draft pick (a round which does not exist any more), but from a hobby perspective, it’s not going to drive much interest. Risk: 4, Ceiling: 4
Geraldo Quintero, 2B, 21
One of the smallest players, stature-wise, in all the minors. Bluntly put, it’s an obstacle to his ascent - at 5’5” he’d be the shortest player in the last 50 years to reach the majors. Other short players like David Eckstein and Jose Altuve had superlative tools coming through the minors. Quintero doesn’t. His hit tool especially is decent, but it’s a fringe-average projection. The best case scenario is that he gets to fringe-average across the board and he does get that shot in the majors as a bench-utility bat. For the hobby, he’s simply just a very easy player to avoid. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 2
Baltimore Orioles
tier 1
Samuel Basallo, C/1B, 19
Basallo may be the hottest prospect in minor league baseball at the moment, with apologies to Jackson Holliday and Junior Caminero. Starting out the year in the teens of the Orioles Top 30 system, which is no small feat given that it is the top system in baseball, Basallo should easily be in the top five of the Orioles system as we start to see pre-season lists coming out. That’s basically on the back of crushing Single-A to start the year with a 149 wRC+ and then making a mockery of High-A with a wRC+ of 195. He finished with a .299 average in Single-A and is currently hitting .333 in High-A and has 20 home runs across both levels.
There is very little to complain about with Basallo and he’s answered most of his swing and miss and contact concerns that were present prior to the season. He’s a bigger body that looks like it could add bad weight at some point and he’s splitting time between catching (not the best for the hobby) and first base (highest offensive bar in the game), so those are potential future negatives to be cognizant of. All in all, Basallo looks well on his way to a plus hit and plus power offensive force for one of the youngest and most exciting teams in baseball. Risk: 6, Ceiling: 10
tier 2
None
tier 3
Luis Almeyda, 3B/SS, 17
Based on performance alone, Almeyda belongs in Tier None, but it was just shy of 20 DSL games, so the sample size is super small. He sprained an ankle that eliminated the second half of June, and then got shut down at the end of July as he ended up getting a non-baseball related minor tear in his shoulder repaired. The report is that he should be back with no delay for baseball activities in 2024. Reports from the Orioles on Almeyda have been strong with no weaknesses in his game, and the little I get to see of him looks impressive even if he doesn’t have a standout tool. As the most expensive International Free Agency signing ever of the Orioles at $2.3M, there is also some prospect pedigree to throw into the mix. All of that context gets him into Tier 3 and makes him a priority watch for 2024 as there is an outside shot at a Tier 2 player. Risk: 10, Ceiling: 5-7
tier none
Joey Ortiz, SS, 25
I partook in quite a few 2019 Bowman Draft breaks back in the day (Hunter Bishop tears emoji) and had zero recollection that Joey Ortiz had his 1st Bowman base cards back in that product. Fast forward four years and Topps couldn’t believe he hadn’t signed autos in a flagship Bowman product, so they made it a top priority to get him a first Bowman autographed card before he had his AARP card. Like a few others in the product, this card will not carry the 1st Bowman logo, but it’s worth mentioning given it will be his first auto.
Originally Ortiz was a defense-first infielder and over the past two years has really taken his hit tool to the next level with strikeout rates well under 20% and hitting for a high average. There has been surprising power as well at the upper minors although it’s not something that will likely be a feature of his at the big league level. Ultimately he’s a utility man on a first division team, which the Orioles have suddenly turned into, or a middle infield bottom half of the order starter on a second division team. And it’s worth mentioning he’s already debuted this season and likely gets his Flagship Rookie card in 2023 Topps Update Series. He’s a borderline Tier 3/Tier None player, but since this is not a 1st Bowman logo’d card, he gets the hobby death sentence and is pushed into Tier None for this product. Risk: 1, Ceiling: 5
Carter Young, 2B/SS, 22
Coming out of the 2021 season, Carter Young seemed like a potential 1st round pick in the 2022 MLB draft. A shoulder surgery prior to the 2022 college season didn’t help matters, but it was a downright ugly year at Vanderbilt in 2022, leading to a drop all the way to round 17 before the Orioles selected Young. There’s never really been a question on the defensive side of the ball - Young will have no problem sticking on the dirt anywhere an MLB team needs him. However, the hit tool and swing and miss are going to likely keep him from an everyday role in the future. He goes up to the plate ready to swing the bat, and there just hasn’t been enough contact for that approach to work. If/when he is on base, he will be able to get to double digit steals even though he’s not a burner. Ultimately the backlog up the middle for the Orioles is massive, and Young is going to have to absolutely ball out to even get on the radar. So far, he hasn’t done it and is more and more an afterthought in the prospect and hobby world, relegating him to Tier None until further notice. Risk: 8, Ceiling: 4
Anderson De Los Santos, 3B, 19
De Los Santos was an intriguing prospect coming out of the DSL with strong results in 2021. The arrow has trended down since then, so far culminating in a subpar first pass at full season ball in Single-A in 2023. Everything went into below average territory with a 25% strikeout rate, a 7% walk rate, a batting average under .230 and just 6 home runs at the time of writing. He looks like he has the defensive chops to stick at third base, but at the moment the offense isn’t enough to clear that bar. It’s not like there isn’t anything overly bad in the underlying data either, but it’s hard to hop on the bandwagon at this point. For now, he’s a player I am passing on until we see significant positive signs. Risk: 8, Ceiling: 4
Frederick Bencosme, SS/2B, 20
It’s pretty much the same profile as back in May for Bencosme — he has autographs here. Despite the surface level stats looking very underwhelming, there’s a great foundation with Bencosme’s hit tool that’s easy to overlook because he’s 20 and has been in High-A all year. With that advanced level for his age, it was always going to be a massive challenge to meaningful contact for a player who struggled finding it at even lower levels. What we’re banking on is that his body develops in a way that lets him turn his great contact skills into hits – he runs a sub-.280 BABIP currently, and it’s due to a complete lack of physicality. He’s a solid defender, but he’s not likely to stay at SS, he doesn’t have elite speed, and it’s very clear he will not have much power. So it really comes down to developing enough of a hit tool at 2B – it’s a very narrow path to hobby success. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 3
Boston Red Sox
tier 1
None
tier 2
None
tier 3
Wikelman Gonzalez, P, 21
Sporting a plus mid-90’s fastball with two above average secondaries, Gonzalez has some pretty electric stuff. He first broke out last year with that potential, but he struggled with consistency. This year his control still isn’t good as he’s sporting a 5.7 BB/9, but he’s gotten away with it as he gets a ton of empty swings and doesn’t give up HR. He’s basically been unhittable in AA, sporting a BAA around .150. It’s clearly an upward trajectory with this year’s performance toward his mid-rotation ceiling. Still, it’s fair to wonder if a player of his size (6’0”), control issues, and stuff is better suited to a back-of-the bullpen role – it throws a wrench in the risk/ceiling assessment. I think there’s a 60% chance he begins his career in majors as a starter, and there’s little doubt he gets there next year. He plays in a really nice collectors’ market who have been on his performance for a few years now, so hobby interest is sure to be robust. Risk: 3 Ceiling: 6
Brooks Brannon, C, 19
Brannon was a 9th Round pick in 2022 but was signed away from a North Carolina commitment with 2nd Round money. His limited performance thus far leans toward being worth it already. Brannon pairs with Johanfran Garcia to create a formidable low minors catching duo. Garcia is the safer play, Brannon is the hero play. He was moved to Low A after a few games in the Complex because his receiving game dictated it, and he immediately made a statement by hitting 3 HR in his first 6 games at the level. And that’s it. He’s been hurt since. There’s considerable concern about his approach at the plate, but the sample is too small to draw a reasonable conclusion in that regard. Though shorter in stature, he’s physically mature with room for a bit more, and his power-oriented swing is already yielding results. To me, it’s a (smaller statured) Cal Raleigh-type ceiling but a long road to get there for Brannon. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 6
Luis Perales, P, 20
Perales keeps striking out hitters and keeps climbing up Boston’s top prospect lists, unranked coming into 2022, he was up to 16th in the In-Season Dynamic Top 30’s at the last update. He has a three-pitch mix led by a mid to upper 90’s fastball, an above average curveball, and a changeup that pairs really well with the fastball when he has the feel for it. He was using that fastball, especially when elevated, to get a ton of swing and miss as well as strikeouts to the tune of 31% in Single-A. After a mid-July promotion to High-A, that dropped down to 26%, which is still good, but not as eye-popping as his Single-A rates. The problem with Perales is the command and giving up too many walks, and occasionally hits as well. His WHIP went from 1.2 to almost 1.7 after the promotion. He wasn’t getting away with breaking balls left in the zone nor fastballs in the wheelhouse. The raw stuff is there for Perales to be a mid-rotation starter given his strike throwing capabilities and him reaching that ceiling will be dependent on how his command develops. Risk: 7, Ceiling: 6
tier none
None
Chicago Cubs
tier 1
None
tier 2
None
tier 3
Derniche Valdez, SS, 17
After having his 1st Bowman auto in 2023 Bowman, Valdez gets his 1st Bowman base in 2023 Bowman Chrome. There was very little to go off of in the 2023 Bowman write up since the DSL season hadn’t yet started up at that time. Now that Valdez has a full season of the DSL under his belt, we can draw a few new tentative conclusions. In 35 games, on the plus side Valdez hit four home runs and stole six bases with a wRC+ of 106. On the negative side, the hit tool side of the equation did not stand up to expectations as he hit .234 with over a .100 point difference in BABIP (.365) and a strikeout rate at 41%. He was looking to put the ball in the air to the pull side A LOT with a 61% pull rate and a 49% fly ball rate - there is some obvious smoothing out of his approach to bring those numbers into a more standard range which should positively impact his success rates in the batter’s box. It’s still too early and too small of a sample size to change the evaluation from the 2023 Bowman write up, but the arrow that was trending up is now trending down. Risk: 10, Ceiling: 6-8
Angel Cepeda, SS, 17
Cepeda was the third of the three top 20 International Free Agents that the Cubs signed for seven figures in the most recent class. And of the three, Cepeda put up the best numbers and looks the most advanced at this stage. I saw a couple of impactful at bats with at least one hit getting an exit velocity of over 100 mph. I could not find any info on why he stopped playing towards the end of July, came back for one game in mid-August, and then got pulled for a pinch runner and did not play another inning in the DSL. Assuming it’s nothing major, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Cepeda having an up arrow in the next round of List Season. Prospect pedigree, a collectible team, and performing at an above average level in the DSL get him easily into Tier 3. Someone I will be watching closely in 2024 as I linked what I saw. Risk: 10, Ceiling: 5-7
Ludwing Espinoza, SS/2B, 17
I will not be referring to Espinoza’s first name for the rest of this blurb as spell check keeps trying to change it to a classical composer’s first name. Anyways, one of the three big signings of the Cubs during the most recent International Free Agency class, Espinoza is a hit and speed middle infielder who underperformed in the DSL this year. I rarely saw him get a called strike as he was ready to pull the trigger on anything close to the zone. That aggressiveness helped avoid excessive strikeouts, but it wasn’t anything to write home about. Furthermore, the balls being put in play weren’t of the best quality as he hit just one home run and batted under .200. Ultimately the lack of power and poor DSL results have him on that borderline between Tier 3 and Tier None with the top 30 prospect pedigree and team collectability tipping the scales into Tier 3 for now. But he’s on notice to improve or else. Risk: 10, Ceiling: 4-6
tier none
Adan Sanchez, C, 18
Oh boy, this isn’t pretty…let’s start with the defense. When he was signed for $1.5 MM in January of 2022 Sanchez was a 3B, but he’s worked almost exclusively at catcher since then. It hasn’t gone well. Understandably he’s raw at the position, but when the book is just to ‘run on Adan’ to the tune of giving up 67 SB in 25 games this year (11 CS), it’s hard to say there’s development. Having an offensive punch was another reason for that seven-figure bonus, but that hasn’t shown up at all. He had one of the worst ISO’s in the Complex in 2023, and through 300 total professional PA’s he has just 7 XBH. The positive spin is that….maybe he can get back to a better quality of contact that had him hitting .328 with a .451 OBP in the DSL last year? As he’s only 18 we can definitely throw him into the ‘hope for non-linear development’ bucket, but this is a prospect that should be for Cubs fans only at release. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 2
Chicago White Sox
tier 1
None
tier 2
None
tier 3
Cristian Mena, P, 20
Mena jumped up lists after his strong 2022 performance, ending up in the top 5-10 of the White Sox system pretty much across the industry and we had him 4th in the pre-season. By the time the trade deadline was done, he had fallen down to 6th in our In-season Dynamic Top 30s as the White Sox added three new top 5 guys in Edgar Quero, Nick Nastrini, and Jake Eder (and Colás had graduated). So while some org updates pushed him down, he’s also had an inconsistent 2023. The swinging strikes are there (28% in Double-A), but the walks are too (11% in Double-A). There were stretches where he was also giving up home runs too frequently, at one point 8 in 10 games.
His four-pitch mix, highlighted by his plus curveball and mid-90s fastball are what you’d like to see in a future starter. The command still needs to be ironed out to reach an SP3 ceiling like we have tabbed him for in the past. Given the strange situation with Double-A balls this year (tacked vs. non-tacked) and Mena having spent most of his time there in 2023, it’s even more difficult to decipher what’s real and what’s not. For now, I’m giving him a Tier 3 ranking as a bit of a placeholder and seeing how he does in Triple-A (and perhaps beyond) in 2024 before I feel strongly about whether he can consistently deliver a Tier 3+ type of result or if he is that inconsistent SP4/SP5 type of pitcher that more belongs in Tier None. Risk: 5, Ceiling: 6
Luis Reyes, P, 17
It’s very rare to see a DSL-only experienced pitcher in a Bowman product. Nobody really wants them. We want our pitchers within a year of getting to 80-100 MiLB innings at the very earliest. Anything else is just too long of a road for the position. Anyhow, Reyes was tied with Abraham Nunez as the biggest 2023 J15 signer for the White Sox at 700k. He pitched 37 innings in the DSL, striking out 27% of hitters, and walking way too many. but it means almost nothing. At his stage of development what he does outside of game action is more important, and we as collectors have no view behind that curtain. What we do know is that he has an ideal starter’s size, though bad weight could become an issue as he matures. He sports a wide array of pitches with his fastball being his best offering, but again, his actual in-game mix is a work in progress. He promises to remain a mystery for at least another year. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 4-7
tier none
Darío Borrero, 1B, 19
A 2021 International signing out of Venezuela, Borrero looks the part of a first baseman standing 6’5” and currently not showing any bad weight on that tall frame. He looks athletic in the box and given his size, one would think that there is some present and even more future power in the bat. However, in 80 professional games between the DSL and the Complex, he has ZERO home runs. There are good contact skills, but that’s almost assuredly not enough to clear the offensive bar at the position and he’s continuing to trend towards non-prospect territory because of it. Add in that he repeated the Complex level this year and his results were marginally better in some areas (small increase in walk rate, small decrease in strikeout rate) and a fair bit worse in others (close to a 100-point drop in BABIP leading to over 60 point drop in batting average). Someone to have filed away to see if he figures out how to get the ball over the fence without negatively impacting his above average hit tool. If he does, he can easily climb out of Tier None. Risk: 9, Ceiling: 5
Cincinnati Reds
TIER 1
None
tier 2
Alfredo Duno, C, 17
The more I think about Duno not having yet played defense at all yet, the more significant I realize it is to his ascension. If he’s going to catch – and will – there’s already a missed year of development, which hurts considering the normal timeframe to become big-league ready at the position is the most of any outside of pitcher. That’s the only yellow flag for Duno though. He was great this year at the plate. He was the only player of his age with more than 5 HR to slash .300/.450/.480 in the DSL, and showed off the potential plus power he was signed for in January for $3.1 MM. He uses his already filled-out lower half well to create an easy power stroke, though he’s still learning to use all fields, as you might expect for a player of his age. It might take a few years for his ceiling to truly come into focus, all things considered, but it seems quite high, especially for the hobby. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 7-9
Tier 3
None
tier none
Cade Hunter, C/OF, 22
The curious case of Cade Hunter. He showed on his social media last year 2022 Bowman Draft 1st Bowman autos that he signed, and then was left off the final checklist. He comes back around for his second chance as an auto only prospect in 2023 Bowman Chrome - we assume that he’ll get his 1st Bowman logo on this card (perhaps his 2022 autos were lost or damaged in transit/processing), but you never know until we see these hit our hands. I wrote him up in my 2022 Bowman Draft preview as someone on that Tier 3/Tier None borderline, but ultimately stuck him in at the bottom of Tier 3 due to the power and starting catcher potential.
Both the power and the hit tool have backed up since that evaluation, as the power is more above average than plus, mostly due to the hit tool ticking down into the below average level, not allowing him to get to all of his power. Hitting sub-.250 and striking out more than expected in the lower minors is not a good trend for a college bat, and one that primarily plays a position the hobby isn’t interested in. It’s worth noting that he did spend a fair bit of time in left field, and that may give a minor boost beyond just what now looks like a backup catcher role, but not enough to get him out of Tier None. Risk: 5, Ceiling: 4
Trey Faltine, INF, 22
Having proved himself to be one of the better defensive SS in the collegiate ranks, the Texas standout was taken in the 7th Round last year. Why so late? Well, he can’t hit. He wasn’t a good hitter in college, and he’s struggled the entire year in High-A. Currently parked around a .100 BA, Faltine has been resigned to being a defensive replacement in a significant number of recent appearances. I don’t think I need to be more negative here, or really even outline his status for the hobby. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 1
Cleveland Guardians
tier 1
None
tier 2
Welbyn Francisca, SS, 17
Signed for $1.375 MM, Francisca was the top J15 for the Guardians this year. They paid up for the promise of a future plus hit tool, and so far he’d delivered on it with what he did in the DSL, though he wasn’t a superlative performer in that aspect. What’s more impressive is that for a smaller-framed player who’s not yet physically mature is that he posted a .184 ISO. Now, that’s more of a sign of the strength of his hit tool – that he’ll be able to get to all the power he has, than significant future growth in that area. Don’t we want guys who are likely to perform? Francisca is that. Defensively he’s not a true SS, but he’ll play there for now before he likely moves to 2B or perhaps 3B. There’s a lot to like – for the hobby his ceiling is very nice, if not top-of the scale. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 7-9
tier 3
Maick Collado, 1B, 20
I’d like Collado a lot more if he wasn’t trending toward being 1B-only. He’s always shown a good hit tool, and under the hood it’s moved positively toward being at least above average. From both sides of the plate he has an all-fields approach that makes me believe that his contact rate will continue to be elite. The problem is that his body is close to maxed out and he’s not showing much power. It’s so little power that he didn’t get bumped to High-A when many players of his age did. Still, he’s so advanced as a hitter that he should get to around 10 HR annually with maturity, but at 1B, that doesn’t really work. His priority shouldn’t be to change who he is as a hitter - that’s already projecting to be MLB-starter quality. He’ll need to work on being usable at 3B or corner OF (which he hasn’t played) to truly be an interesting hobby name, but it’s a dream of a nice medium-ceiling regular. Since I like the player I’m sneaking him into the very back of Tier 3. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 5
tier none
Wuilfredo Antunez, OF, 21
I’ve been a fan of what I thought to be Antunez’s five-tool profile for a few years, but just kept getting hurt. This year he’s been healthy for the whole season –his first time as a professional. Now, I’m fixing my brain to think that he needs time to grow into the routine of an everyday ballplayer because I’m not impressed. Don’t get me wrong - he’s been fine, and being 21 at Low-A isn’t a death knell. His power and speed have shown up a bit to the tune of an ISO around .140 & 11 SB, but I expected more at this level. His hit tool has been a strength, and if he can find just a little more consistency it’ll be an above average projection. It’s hard for me to step back from a player like this that I’ve been mentally invested in because there is still something there, but it’s closer to a late-blooming MLB-role player at this point. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 4
Juan Benjamin, 2B/3B, 20
Benjamin looks like the 2B you build in a lab. Shorter statured, but has a good body with a bit more to grow into. His above-average speed should absolutely remain with maturity. His swing plane is fairly flat - he’s trying to hit the ball hard on the ground or low line drives every single time. That leaves little opportunity for HR, but he could run into a handful at peak. And really that’s OK - annoying contact-hitter 2B-types are quite useful even in the majors. They’re just not very desirable for the hobby. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 4
Victor Izturis, C, 18
The nephew of former major leaguers Cesar and Maicer Izturis (I knew of Cesar, but somehow I missed an 11 YEAR career of Maicer), Victor was signed out of Venezuela in the 2022 International Free Agent class. He was actually tied for the most money given out by the Guardians that year with Jaison Chourio at $1.2M. Izturis has been pretty much as advertised - a player who can stick behind the plate and has a strong plate approach with an above average hit tool. He’s shown plus walk rates in the double digits and plus strikeout rates under 20% in both the DSL in 2022 and the Complex in 2023. On the negative side, he’s not shown any power nor any speed on the basepaths. Part of that lack of power is that he’s hitting the ball into the ground too much - 47% in the DSL and 58% in the Complex. There’s a potential hit first backup catcher floor here with some upside, but lacking the power, he’s just not going to do enough to register on the hobby radar even if he does end up as an everyday starter. Risk: 8, Ceiling: 4
Colorado Rockies
tier 1
None
tier 2
None
tier 3
Jordy Vargas, P, 19
With a nice frame, three pitches with above-average or better projection, already present command, and youth on his side, things were going extremely well for Vargas and his upside that was trending as mid-rotation or better… then the calendar turned to July and he stopped pitching. It got worse three weeks later, when the Rockies announced he and three other pitchers were to have Tommy John surgery. Now all that projection gets thrown into question as he embarks on the 18 months of recovery. It’s really unfortunate timing, but add in the Rockies pitcher discount to the TJS, and you may be buying at his lowest value. I’d definitely be willing to take a shot on some of his autos when they’re in the $5 bin, be it this November or next. The next time he toes the rubber he’ll be just 21, so the hope is he’ll develop at the same pace as a 2024 draft-eligible collegiate arms who’ll be the same age. There’s no reason to be out on him altogether – his development is just arrested for a while. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 6
tier none
Bladimir Restituyo, OF, 22
Since he signed in 2018, Restituyo has walked less than 50 times in over 1600 PA’s – it’s just who he is, and it’s likely never going to change. What does that mean? There’s a very small chance he makes it as a regular. But as far as making it to the majors? There’s a pretty good chance! He’s the best defensive OF in the Rockies’ minors, he has above average speed, there is legit gap-to-gap pop, and his contact-oriented swing has always kept his K% in check. It’s just that one thing – that he doesn’t get on base – and it’s a killer. He’s been exposed as such this year against the more advanced pitching at AA, with weak contact becoming more prevalent. The track record is so long that it’ll be a shock if he improves to even a 8% BB-type, but if he does it’s easy to say this would be the next Rockies CF should Brenton Doyle fail. Risk: 4 Ceiling: 4
Bryant Betancourt, 1B/C, 19
An absolute stat smasher last year in repeating the DSL, Betancourt was moved all the way to Low-A for 2023. He’s shown this year that the best parts of what he did in the DSL were a mirage, which is the case for many players who repeat the level. There is something to his hit tool…just not much impact. But let me be blunt - there needs to be impact for him to make it to the majors. Betancourt likely lacks the arm to stick at catcher, lacks the ideal size of a 1B, and while there’s some quickness, lacks the straight-line speed to be a corner OF. So there’s such a limited defensive profile that there’s immense pressure on his bat to become exceptional. And we just haven’t seen that stateside yet. That said, development is not linear, there’s some body projection remaining, there’s a foundation to his hit tool, and he’s shown what he can be at his best. If he makes it to the majors he’ll be very interesting for the hobby, but especially in this system I’m not making that bet. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 5
Andy Perez, INF, 19
The best thing about Perez is that he has a great frame to build into. He’s been great at putting the ball in play this year at Low-A, but too often it’s a low quality of contact, leading to a low BABIP despite good speed. There are really just two things that need to happen for him to become a legit prospect - first, grow into his 6’3” body to more easily access his natural levers, and second, tone down his aggressive approach at the plate. Will other issues arise with maturity? Perhaps. Right now there’s just a bunch of questions and this system is one of the worst at development - so while there’s a nice ceiling to be had with the player, there’s nothing predictive to say that he gets anywhere near it. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 4
Jesus Bugarin, OF, 21
After crushing identical 51 game samples in the DSL in 2021 and at the Complex in 2022, Bugarin has come back to earth in 2023. His aggressive approach and high ground ball rate (over 50%) caught up with him in Single-A, which doesn’t portend good things as he moves further up the minor league ladder. There’s some power in the bat, but I also saw him get eaten up by high fastballs and get really off-balance against breakers leading to that weak contact and high ground ball rate. He’s shown he can steal double digit bases although with his stockier frame, I doubt it’s something that will be part of his tool set in the future. At this point, he looks like a 4th/5th outfielder at best, and if he doesn’t improve on a 2% walk rate in 2023, it’s unlikely he hits even that ceiling. Risk: 8, Ceiling: 3
Connor Staine, P, 22
There’s not much to add that has already been said in Prospects Live content in regard to Staine. The draft team was in on Staine due to data and strikeout potential, but unfortunately, he was taken by literally the worst team for pitching prospects. Still, he made it into our 2023 pitching breakout for the org (hey, someone had to be chosen). The results have been a mixed bag with a third pitch not yet showing up to give him that future starter profile. The fastball slider are good enough pitches to still get strikeouts in the lower minors and Colorado is so desperate for starters that Staine likely doesn’t get moved to the bullpen for a while, but ultimately that’s where he’s headed without that third pitch. Until we see more, Staine has the deck stacked against him for any hobby relevance. Risk: 8, Ceiling: 3
Detroit Tigers
tier 1
None
tier 2
Justyn-Henry Malloy, OF/3B, 23
This season he further proved that he is who we thought he was back in May when he cad base cards in Bowman - he get autographs in this release (and is still pictured as a Brave!). First and foremost apparently for the Tigers – they have zero faith in his defense. He and Colt Keith both have done enough offensively to earn a shot with the big club, but with this being the Miguel Cabrera retirement tour, there are no AB’s to be had at DH in The D. So he’s bided his time all year at AAA, where his power and hit numbers have ticked up from his impressive season last year – it’s a .930 OPS this year. The outlook for 2024 is better. I assume he and Keith tandem for an 80% share of DH/OF duties, which is an exciting combo that mixes well with the core of the team. It’s just a little frustrating that we’re still biding our time. He sneaks into the back of Tier 2 just because of the low-risk profile. Risk: 2 Ceiling: 5
tier 3
None
tier none
Luke Gold, 3B/2B, 22
Detroit’s 5th Round selection out of Boston College in the 2022 Draft, Gold is a bat-first infielder. Sent to Low-A then promoted to High-A this year, the results have been OK. There’s absolutely nothing that stands out in the positive or negative extreme, and I wonder if that could just continue all the way to the majors. What will be most important, without any clearly above-average tools, is that he maintains his defensive versatility. That, and natural projected growth on the offensive side, would give him the floor of an MLB role player. However, it’s still not a high hobby floor. Something unexpected will have to pop for that. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 4.
Danny Serretti, SS/3B, 23
A mid-round senior sign from last year’s draft out of North Carolina, Serretti is at worst a Role-40 infielder who should stick around in the high minors and maybe get a cup of coffee in a few years. I think that’s where he ends up, but if he exceeds it, it’ll be because of his hit tool. He has a contact-oriented all-fields approach that at his best leads to enough meaningful contact – his problem is finding consistency as he moves up levels. He hasn’t found it at AA yet at 23, so time for any sort of hobby significance is already dwindling. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 3
Javier Osorio, SS, 18
We saw Osorio back in May but he had no autographs, so gets a redux for this release. It was a negative writeup then, and it remains so. Javier got a big $2.2MM bonus in the 2022 J15 period where he looked like a potential plus defender at short with excellent bat speed. With now having repeated the DSL, the bat speed did show up in-game, resulting in good power numbers. But that’s pretty much it - there were no improvements to swing decisions, and his K% was still over 30%. It’s simply easier to chalk the small level of success he had as being a year more experienced than the competition. His defense also remains a work in progress – he saw more time away from SS than in 2022. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 4
Houston Astros
tier 1
None
tier 2
Jacob Melton, OF, 23
The best non-1st Bowman logo but still a first bowman autograph in the product, Jacob Melton has by default ended up as the best prospect in the Astros system after the trade deadline. That spot used to be occupied by Drew Gilbert and it could be argued that Ryan Clifford was preferred as the second best prospect in the system, but both were traded to the Mets for Justin Verlander. As I wrote in the 2022 Bowman Draft preview, Melton is that power/speed profile that does really well with the hobby, even with hit tool concerns. Melton spent the majority of 2023 at Single-A and did his power/speed thing, hitting 18 home runs and stealing 41 bases. He struck out just 21% of the time, which I was actually surprised to see how low that was. However, he only had a .244 batting average with a .272 BABIP, intimating the quality of contact was an issue. He rarely hits line drives, and that is basically the type of batting average and BABIP you get when you either hit a ground ball or flyball 85% of the time. He was recently promoted to Double-A and the numbers have been bad, but it’s only been nine games, so I will basically ignore those. I still see him as a Tier 2 player, where he was in Bowman Draft, given the top Astros prospect status and the power/speed combo continuing to shine. Risk: 5, Ceiling: 7
tier 3
Kenedy Corona, OF, 23
I love these revisits from our May evaluations, especially when the season results are positive like Corona. Corona has first Bowman autographs in this release. In May, I was impressed by his breakout in 2022 but cautioned that he was returning to High-A. Well, it was only a week after release that he was promoted to AA. And at that new level he’s done a great job of maintaining the skills that emerged last year. Yes, the gross numbers are a little less impressive, but that was expected. I think the statement I made in May that he’s an exciting player - a gamer with plus speed, still holds true. Showing that at a higher level just makes him that much more exciting for the hobby. I think if he’s given 600 AB’s there’s a 15 HR / 40 SB season in his future. But even though he’s great in CF, his hit tool isn’t strong enough for it to be with a contender like the Astros. Risk: 4 Ceiling: 5
Kenni Gomez, OF, 18
Back in May (he gets autos in this release), I made this bold statement that among Cubans, I would take Gomez over Dyan Jorge. I would no longer do that. While Jorge has acquiesced himself nicely to Low-A, Gomez was hurt again, this time missing half the Complex season before returning for the tail end. It makes my other statement, that Gomez was going to be a slow burn, as true as ever. Still, being healthy now and having a full offseason of training and physical development, I’m hopeful he gets sent to Low-A to begin 2024. I’m of the mind that growing into his body is what he needs most. He has a knack for the barrel already, and he has a contact-oriented swing that’s a great match to his blazing speed. He just needs to stay healthy now. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 6
Camilo Diaz, OF, 18
A consensus top 20 International prospect and the Astros’ most expensive signing at $2.2M in the most recent signing period. The video looks for Astros DSL games are often poor and blurry, so it’s to the social media machine we go. And you find about what you’d expect - Diaz smashing majestic home runs in various pre-signing and DSL settings. The swing in those videos is a powerful uppercut geared for power from a frame that could certainly produce plus pop at maturity.
While Diaz put up a strong walk rate at over 20% in the DSL, we have to take those with a grain of salt given the wildness of pitchers at that level. His strikeout rate was close to 33%, which is an obvious red flag. All reports are that he should be able to stick on the left side of the infield, and both the hit tool and the power tool have potential with a decent amount of speed. Another raw DSL prospect with big risk, above average ceiling, and enough prospect pedigree to be considered a Tier 3 guy despite the rough 2023 results. Buyer beware as the arrow is trending down even if Houston is an org that should be given the benefit of the doubt. Risk: 10, Ceiling: 6-8
tier none
Luke Berryhill, C/1B, 25
A collegiate draftee in 2019, Berryhill has been around for awhie. Other than being a serviceable catcher and having the ability to play some 1B, there’s nothing to indicate that at the MLB level he’s more than that fill-in emergency catcher to burn when the backup goes down. He’ll get on base for you, but he doesn’t have much pop and he has 800 AB’s of a K% around 30% that’s never improved. It’s simply an easy avoid for the hobby. I need to have a conversation with whoever’s in charge of these checklists… Berryhill has years of this track record and projection. Risk: 3 Ceiling: 1
Kansas City Royals
tier 1
None
tier 2
None
Tier 3
None
Tier none
Junior Marin, OF, 19
Marin is shown on the checklist with the Royals although he was traded to the Phillies in early May for an extremely tall low leverage reliever in James McArthur. The Royals also got some cash in the deal because they needed to stock their soda machine. After five games at the Complex for the Phillies, Marin ended up going on the 60-day IL. Unfortunately, like a majority of minor league injuries, I could find zero information on why.
He crushed small samples at the DSL in 2021 and the Complex in 2022 heavily aided by BABIP’s north of .400. In the DSL he showed power with 7 home runs, but was unable to repeat that at the Complex in 2022, not putting a single ball over the fence. He also went from a sub-20 % strikeout rate in the DSL to a 30% strikeout rate at the Complex in 2022. Obviously, I’m throwing out the 5 games he played at the Complex in 2023, but we need the real Junior Marin to stand up. The DSL version is an exciting outfielder slugger who could be considered as a potential Tier 2 prospect. The Complex version looks like a borderline Tier 3/Tier None prospect that is going to struggle against advanced pitching. I’m sliding him into Tier None solely based on the fact that the Royals gave him up so cheaply, but I wouldn't argue if you were higher on him than I am. Risk: 9, Ceiling: 5
Jack Pineda, SS, 24
A 12th round senior sign from Baylor in last year’s Draft, he was a nice flier for the Royals to see there was enough of a bat to pair with his do-everything infield defense. He’s been hurt since late June, but before that, he was at High-A and playing only SS, so the organization definitely has some faith in him. As for his hobby status – it won’t be good. He posted a sub-.100 ISO in his time in Quad Cities, and at 5’7” and 24 years old, there’s no projection. He’ll need to tone down his strikeouts too, which is doable as his overall profile as a hitter looks pretty good. The amount he’s able to improve in the quality of contact area will determine whether he makes it to the majors, but on the strength of his defense, it’s a 50/50 shot. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 2
Hayden Dunhurst, C, 22
A 2022 6th Rounder out of Ole Miss who already had cards in last year’s Bowman Draft product (so his autos here will not have a 1st Bowman logo), Dunhurst is not an exciting player for the Hobby. It’s not because of his injury-marred performance this year which was marked by a June debut and only playing 8 games in August. It’s because he’s a small-framed, defense-first catcher with no projection. He has no track record of hitting for power, and struggles to hit breaking pitches. He has hit a couple of HR this year, but his offensive performance has been quite ugly. Couple this with the no 1st Logo, and there’s not much to like, except for Royals fans. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 2
Henry Ramos, OF, 18
We’re following up on our writeup from May here, as Ramos has autos in this release. Though we bathed him in lackluster light back then, it’s dim now. He not only didn’t move to the Complex this year, in some ways he stepped back in repeating the DSL. He did get to some of his plus raw power for the first time, but it was at the cost of his being a freer swinger – it was a worse showing of his hit tool. What’s more is that he’s a big physical kid, so he should just be able to force his way through the league with sheer strength as a repeater. That just didn’t happen. It’s solidly a down arrow for me from May - don’t fall for the slight improvement to the overall statline. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 3
Juan Olmos, C, 18
Olmos has his first autographs here, but we first saw him in May’s release. In that writeup, we had very little to go on – we have a little more now, and it’s mostly not good. Olmos repeated the DSL after only playing in a few games last year, and even though he was a year older than the most projectable of his competition, he swung at most everything (39 K%, 42 SwStr%). There needs to be a 180-degree turnabout in his plate approach to make it past complex ball, frankly. While I think there’s some raw power in his bat, and his arm is fantastic, it won’t matter if his plate discipline continues to be anywhere near this bad. Add in that he has the most baseball value at catcher, which generally is the longest path to defensive maturity, and he’s easily a prospect to ignore for the hobby. He’s not a zero because he’s still so young - but it doesn’t look promising. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 3
Los Angeles Angels
tier 1
None
tier 2
None
Tier 3
Luis Torres, 1B, 19
Signed in February of 2022 a year after he was eligible, there weren’t many expectations for Torres last year. Then he went out and proved not only that his hulking 6’3” was stronger than the rest of the league, but he also showed some promising bat-to-ball chops. Like I’ve said many times - we have to take 18 YO’s in the DSL with a grain of salt. But mostly this year, he’s proven it to be not a fluke. Just looking at the results, Torres tore up the Complex, posting a .565 SLG. Though his K% did balloon to 27% due to a rise in swing-and-miss, it’s not a major concern to me. It’s more important that he kept his all-fields approach and continued getting to his easy power. Let’s not look at what he did at Low-A in July - he was only there filling in (it was a complex chain of promotions) and not necessarily ready for the level. The most limiting parts of his profile are that he’s 1B-only and has no speed. His power is nice but he absolutely needs to continue getting to it as he develops. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 6
Tier None
Dario Laverde, C, 18
Catching is hard. What looked like a great defensive catcher in the DSL last year was exposed as a guy who was…still a bit raw behind the dish this year. This is just to say that the development path will be slower, as he’ll stay at the position for the foreseeable future. Unlike his defense though, his offensive aptitude carried over from the DSL to Complex. Both years, he recorded an OBP and SLG over .400. His BB:K ratio also continued to be excellent this year. Simply put, he was an offensive standout at the Complex for his position. There’s some body projection remaining, and he already has an all-fields approach that should yield gap-to-gap pop in the future. For Laverde it’s just about the road we have to take to get there - for the hobby, as a catcher-only prospect, he’ll require patience, but there’s potential for a nice ceiling. Tier None for now, but a >50% probablity to move up. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 5
Kristin Munroe, 3B, 19
A 400k signing in 2021 from the Bahamas, Munroe has a classic power-projectable 3B body. His swing looks the part in the BP sessions I could find, but his results have been the opposite, hitting over 60% grounders as a pro in games. He also swings at pretty much everything, and that’s caused him to see such limited game action at the Complex both years he’s been there. His K% was cut down this year though, to 37%, and he hit his first two pro HR! There’s an immense risk with Munroe, and he’s very likely to not make it past the low minors. His power isn’t even truly projectable in a baseball sense at this point. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 2
Los Angeles Dodgers
tier 1
Joendry Vargas, SS, 17
The top 2023 J15 for the Dodgers and a Top 3 name for the class, Vargas signed for $2 MM and immediately got to work showing off his potential 5-Tool skill set. We say 5 Tools now but as he matures into his 6`4” frame it’s easy to say his speed will end up below average. That would also likely push him off SS to 3B but….we’re getting ahead of ourselves here. He’ll play both positions for a few years yet, and it’s really his plate skills that are most impressive. Vargas had the vaunted .300/400/.500 slash in the DSL, and showed excellent discipline for his age. He mashed 20 XBH while maintaining a BB:K near 1. Simply put, he looked like the most complete hitter in the entire league. For 2024, an immediate placement at Low-A certainly seems like it would be appropriate. Projectability is also very much in the offing for Vargas - both his top and bottom half have a lot of room for positive growth. Without Ehan Salas, Vargas would be the top name in this product for the hobby. I truly believe there is no limit to his ceiling, and he’s showing no real flaws in his game. I’m personally so confident that I’m assigning him a lower risk factor than any DSL player I’ve ever given. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 10
tier 2
Oswaldo Osorio, INF, 18
After I dug into some data this past offseason, I became a huge fan of Osorio. He peaked inside my Top 10 of players without a Bowman auto. It’s because on average, he hit the ball harder than most anyone in the DSL last year, he’s shown a great ability to get on base via the walk, and he has a projectable frame that’s still not near maturity. In fact, his speed and infield defense are still a work in progress and likely to improve. Now, this year when he hit the Complex he proved that his propensity to swing and miss was still too great – he’s not a top name for any product. He very much still deserves to be in the diamond-in-the-rough pile. It’s possible he gets completely exposed with more advanced pitching next year and he sees his first real dip in quality of contact. But when I say I’m in on him, I’m in on him for his plus physical tools – they’re just not fully-baked baseball tools yet. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 8
Arnaldo Lantigua, OF, 17
There’s a bit of danger to what I’m about to say about the 700k 2023 J15 signer because he did miss a month of the DSL season so his sample is more limited than most. To me, Lantigua is the best in-game power hitter of the 2023 J15 class. But it’s not all about the sample where he hit 7 HR in 29 games. He has a great 6’2” frame to build into, and if it develops properly he could stick in CF. His swing is geared to get to that power and he makes it look easy. For his age, his approach is fine in terms of swing decisions but it needs to continue to trend in the right way or things could get really hairy for his hit tool overall. Also, when he mishits balls they become easy outs because he’s a dead pull hitter right now. Putting on my rose-colored glasses, when he becomes that more complete hitter, watch out – the Lantigua show could be coming to a Complex league near you next year with double-digit bombs. I’m high on the potential so this is a really positive writeup, but again - be careful with him. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 7-9
Tier 3
Chris Newell, OF, 22
There’s sure to be some major early season weight thrown to his hobby hype as he destroyed Low-A in April & May. Paired with his breakout at Virginia in his junior year, it laid the groundwork of a player with a nice power/speed ceiling to dream on. I’m not saying that’s a mirage – but there are definite cracks in the foundation of that thinking. His K% has hovered in the upper 20s at both levels. It didn’t hurt him in Low-A, but in High-A pitchers have more easily picked apart his poor swing decisions and his performance has suffered greatly. He does take his walks though - he’d a three-true-outcomes type with a kicker of defensive value if he makes it. He has a big body and an upright stance, which allows him to use just a small leg kick as he attempts to pull balls to oblivion. It’s not a balanced approach and I don’t know that it’s fixable, but with some improvements, he could be an impact MLB bat. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 6
Tier none
Yunior Garcia, OF/1B, 22
Unfortunately, Garcia took a fastball to the head in early May and didn’t return until early August, but it’s great to just see him playing again. Not much has changed since I wrote him up for 2023 Bowman, especially with the lack of playing time. He’s aggressive at the plate and puts the bat on the ball a lot. I still think he’s going to run high strikeout rates and low walk rates as he moves up to face more advanced pitching and that will depress his real baseball and hobby value. Those will be the keys to watch in the next few years to see if he can trend upwards in the Tiers. Risk: 7, Ceiling: 5
Jesus Galiz, C, 19
A defense-first catcher, Galiz isn’t a great hobby name. At only 19, he’s not superlative defensively yet, but it’s clear - that’s his carrying tool. He probably has enough of a hit tool to make it if his defense maxes out, and a bit of power could come with more development to his body. Being a teenage catcher, there’s a long way to go and this is a Jacob Stallings-type projection right now – he’s simply not going to be a significant player for the hobby. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 4
Miami Marlins
tier 1
None
tier 2
Marco Vargas, SS, 18
Vargas was just a minor signing in the 2022 J15 period, but he’s been nothing but impressive since. Traded to the Mets in the David Robertson deal this past July, he’s obviously still a Marlin in this release. The easiest thing of note about Vargas is the plus projection in his hit tool. His BB:K ratio is squarely over 1 – some of that is just his comfort in not chasing bad Complex pitching, but he also slugged over .400 at the level so it’s not simply passivity. He has a flat swing plane with an all-fields approach, but he’s not afraid to muscle up to mistakes. I don’t think it’s truly gap-to-gap pop yet – I think he’s just that mature of a hitter to wait for those mistakes. I’m ready to be proven wrong on that as he moves into Low-A next year. He has decent size for an infielder and some room to mature into more power, but it’s likely to be below average. Defensively he plays all over the infield and it should stay that way – it’s a utility profile. He’s a very nice name for the hobby and he’s now in an organization with more avid collectors. He won’t be cheap, but he might be worth it. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 7
Tier 3
Antony Peguero, OF, 18
Peguero is another carryover from May’s Bowman release with an autograph here. A 575k signing in the 2022 J15 period, last year in the DSL Peguero showed that had some nice power to go along with the strong hit tool that earned him his bonus. But it comes with the caveat of some wild swing decisions. It didn’t hurt him last year, but it certainly did this year – not much power showed up in-game in the Complex because of it, and there was no improvement in those swing decisions. He’s just a very aggressive hitter, and looks the part in the box with what has become a hyper-kinetic, closed stance. It’s something that likely needs to change as he matures – it seems like it would propagate timing issues. Anyhow, his K% still wasn’t bad despite all that so it’s possible he just moves right up to Low-A to begin next year. Just expect him to be raw for quite awhile yet. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 6
Jose Gerardo, OF, 18
A low six figure signing in January 2022, Gerardo has tools for days, highlighted by an 80 grade RF hand cannon. He also possesses raw power that’s easily plus and above average speed that should continue as he matures. He absolutely smashed the DSL last year, totalling 11 HR in 50 games, though it was soured by a 36 K%. This year he also got to power, but the K% was even worse at a whopping 43%. It’s not because he’s hyper aggressive - he does take his BB and that lets his speed play on the basepaths. It’s that his pitch identification and swing decisions are still very, very raw. I wouldn’t call it a negative to see him repeat the Complex next year - it’s a better setting for him to develop baseball acumen. There’s still plenty of hope that he becomes a truly dynamic weapon, but I have no idea how long he’ll take to get there. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 7
Janero Miller, P/OF, 17
Signed as a two-way player out of the Bahamas for 950k earlier this year. He’s working on two positions in a professional setting, so to me, this is a player where we can ignore his performance entirely for now (it’s not good). The most important thing to note is that the lefty is already into the 90’s with his FB and has multiple pitches with plus potential. He looks to have a well sized, athletic frame that would play well in the OF (he only DH’d this year). If he stays two-way, I think he’s still likely two years from full season ball should things start trending well. There’s frankly not much more to go on, but this would surely be a long term buy-in. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 4-6
Paul McIntosh, C, 25
After being a 34th round pick out of high school, McIntosh decided to head to West Virginia and be a Mountaineer (not an actual Mountaineer, but a baseball player at the University of West Virginia). After three years of average results, McIntosh ended up not getting drafted in the 2022 MLB draft and signing with the Marlins as an undrafted free agent.
Fast forward to pro ball and McIntosh has shown that the bat is likely playable at the MLB level, even if there are questions about his defensive home. He’s run double-digit walk rates at every stop from Single-A to Triple-A. There’s definitely home run juice in the bat and he regularly looks to put the ball over the fence with an uppercut, pull-side swing. That swing and power approach comes with the swing and miss concerns as well. He’s probably not good enough behind the dish to be a full time catcher, but the bat’s good enough to get a Kyle Schwarber-esque type of positional rotation from catcher to first base to designated hitter to a shaky left fielder. After being on the fringes of the Marlins top 30, he’s steadily working his way up and is a mildly interesting hobby lottery ticket. Risk: 5, Ceiling: 6
Javier Sanoja, OF/2B/SS, 21
Sanoja broke out in 2023 between Single-A and High-A as an undersized up-the-middle hit and speed prospect. He has a strong feel for the strike zone and a natural ability to put the bat on the ball. There is almost no power to speak of and he regularly runs a ground ball rate over 50% as he looks to put the ball in play and put pressure on the defense with his legs. This isn’t the friendliest of hobby profiles, but the hit and speed are trending towards plus, which gets him easily into Tier 3. Risk: 6, Ceiling: 6
tier none
Torin Montgomery, 1B, 22
The Marlins think so highly of Montgomery, they not only drafted him out of high school in 2019, they drafted him again, this time much higher (14th round), when he was eligible again coming out of the University of Missouri in 2022. Another big first baseman in this product, he’s shown some power and a decent hit tool, at least in his repeat of Single-A this year. Things have not gone as well since his late July call-up to High-A, but it is a small sample of under 40 games. I will say that he was having challenges handling a more advanced arm in one of the games I watched in High-A, which gives me a bit of pause in giving too much credit to his Single-A stats. The truth probably is somewhere in between the strong Single-A performance and the rough High-A performance. If Montgomery showed more than just average power, which, given his physical frame, I would have assumed it would have been, I would consider him as a Tier 3 player. Without that, he’s more of a borderline guy for me, and I’m going to throw him into Tier None until he shows that ever-important power, especially from the first base position. Not to mention that he’s in the Marlins org, which has struggled to develop hitters. Risk: 7, Ceiling: 5
Ronald Hernandez, C, 19
Part of the return for David Robertson along with Marco Vargas for the Mets at the end of July, Hernandez still will show up on the Marlins in this product. He’s a decent prospect, but Vargas was the bigger prize in that deal, and honestly the Mets would have done well to even get Hernandez for Robertson. Hernandez is a solid catcher and should have no issues sticking behind the plate and regularly exhibits a strong plate approach, keeping his strikeout rates low and his walk rates high. A recent promotion to Single-A looks to have him overmatched at the plate, but it’s a short sample for now. He’s not shown much power yet although his stockier frame does hint at potential above average sock in the future. If he wasn’t a catcher, I might consider Hernandez as a Tier 3 possibility with the hit tool potential. As such, he’s a Tier None guy on the borderline and one to watch, especially given his current team’s collectability (definitely not his former/on-card team). Risk: 8, Ceiling: 5
Milwaukee Brewers
tier 1
None
tier 2
Luis Lara, OF, 18
Lara made his full-season debut days after Bowman came out in May, so that write-up for his base Chrome seems a bit dated considering just how well he’s done this year. Lara has shown a tremendous feel for the barrel at both Low and High-A this year. He peppers all fields with line drives and as he matures, some of those will become extra bases and HR. I think everyone sees this, right? He’s creeping into Top 100 lists already and doesn’t turn 19 until the offseason, so I think so. He’s still learning how to steal bases and he has just above-average speed, but he’ll be a double-digit SB threat at least. His quick twitch ability plays very well in CF, and could challenge Jackson Chourio (who was a MiLB GG winner) at the position should he catch up to him. So, now with his autographs in this set we get a prospect who’s exceeded what I thought to be lofty but far-off expectations. He doesn’t have the sky as the limit for his ceiling, but he’s much safer than I thought and there’s definite star potential. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 7
tier 3
Dylan O’Rae, 2B/OF, 19
O’Rae has proved every bit of the positive things we wrote about him in May (when he had base Chrome) to be true. Now he gets his autographs. He began the year by running all over the Complex league, swiping 28 bases and only getting caught twice. He also led that league with a .522 OBP. Simply put, that league was no match for his advanced hit and speed. He’s now moved up and played over 20 games at Low-A, and shockingly it’s more of the same. He’s running an OPS over .800 and swiped 16 bags (4 CS) in that league. On the negative side – he has no power (9 XBH in over 200 AB), and doesn’t project for any. But to me it doesn’t matter that much - his ceiling is David Eckstein with better speed. It’s better for real baseball than for the hobby, but he’s still looking like a very collectible player and easy to see as a MLB regular. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 6
Kevin Ereu, SS, 17
The top of Milwaukee’s 2023 J15 as a $1.4 MM-bonus signer, the hope is that one day he’s an everyday SS with above-average across the board tools. That’s a far cry from what he’s been so far. He’s a shorter-statured player who looks like a 17 YO - there’s a lot of physical growth yet to be had, so at this juncture, I’m not really worried that he had so little quality of contact this year. But I also have no idea what he’ll look like when he does mature. So, we’re left with a saltine cracker with nothing on it to work with - we just have to trust the organization scouted him properly and he’ll get to a semblance of his projection. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 4-6
Carlos Rodriguez, P, 21
I’ve called him Carlos F in my head for a few years now as it’s the easiest way search for him – there’s hilariously another Carlos Rodriguez on his AA team (who already has cards, so watch out for that!). Carlos F is the best one for the hobby now, as Milwaukee has received excellent results from the former JuCo pitcher. He was a 6th-Rounder in 2021, and he’s outperformed it for two years now. Though his secondaries are his best pitches and profile as above-average offerings at peak, his fastball has average at best and his stature isn’t such that he projects for much more. He’s best suited to a starting role though, and his best path to that in the majors is honing his command. To me he’s truly a finesse arm wearing a high K/9 mask. With a little more refinement I think he’ll hit his ceiling as a back-end SP innings-eater type that could retain some of the K numbers we’re seeing now. Risk: 4 Ceiling: 5
Tier none
Robert Moore, 2B/SS, 21
Moore had his 1st Bowman base cards in 2022 Bowman Draft, but he will be getting his first Bowman autos in this product. They won’t come with the 1st Bowman logo, though, so the value on them will likely be limited. When I wrote him up in the 2022 Bowman Draft preview, I had him as a Tier 3 player because of his baseball bloodlines as the son of former Royals GM Dayton Moore. He was a borderline player for me and that pushed it over the edge, but at this point that notoriety has started to fade from a hobby perspective, and it’s more about his baseball skills. And that skillset is a defense and speed middle infield utility player. He’s simply the definition of an average player who won't hurt you, but he won't make much impact either. With that lack of impact, he gets pushed into Tier None in this iteration of Bowman. Risk: 6, Ceiling: 4
Abner Uribe, RP, 23
This is one of the easier writeups, because all I have to do is point to Pitching Ninja to see the appeal in Uribe. The 103 MPH turbo-sinker paired with the above-average slider aside, there’s clearly a probability that he ends up as a closer, or at least a high-leverage reliever, in the long-term. That’s a floor, and a better one than most players in this product. He’s also already showing it in the majors, which mitigates risk. Problem with Uribe is, of course, that he’s a reliever, which is inarguably the poorest positional context for the hobby. There’s a 0% chance he’s a starter – his niche is established, and niche he will be for the hobby. Really exciting player though. Risk: 1 Ceiling: 3
Jadher Areinamo, 2B/3B, 19
Milwaukee could build a hut with small-statured contact-hitters (not a house, because it’s small, get it?), and Areinamo has declared himself to be one of significance this year. He does lack the speed that Dylan O’Rae and Luis Lara have, so he’s well below them as a prospect, but it’s a nice utility profile. Areinamo is hyper aggressive at the plate but he has such a flat swing plane and feel for the barrel that he could continue to get away with it all the way to the majors. He’s smacked over 30 XBH and is hitting over .300 this year - some nice results to be sure. I personally want to see how he fares at higher levels before I project him as a MLB bench utility bat - something like that is his ceiling. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 4
Daniel Guilarte, 2B/SS, 19
He’s basically the same player we wrote about in May when he had base cards. Like many others, he has his first autographs here. The speed and defense continue to lead Guilarte’s profile, and there’s promise of a decent hit tool that hasn’t quite developed yet. He still hasn’t hit his first professional HR (360 AB’s and counting), but I think that will come in tandem with his feel to hit coming into maturity. With all this said it’s impossible to project a big leaguer with what he’s shown - and while there’s still plenty of hope on his development, he’s not likely to be a player of significance for the hobby. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 2
Ben Metzinger, 3B/1B, 24
An underslot 7th Round senior sign out of Virginia in the 2022 Draft, Metzinger was mostly signed as an organizational filler, with some hope that the average hit and power he showed off in his final year in Charlottesville played up in pro ball. It hasn’t. For a player of his age and station there needs to be results right away to have a sprinkling of hobby significance, and an ISO around .100 with a .220 BA doesn’t cut it. He does get on base at a decent clip, which was a strength that did carry over from college. But that just means he’ll stick around in the organization for a few more years wherever the Brewers need him. So far he’s done the yeoman’s work manning 1B and 3B at High-A. Obviously he’s only interesting for Brewers collectors. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 1
Minnesota Twins
tier 1
None
tier 2
None
tier 3
Hendry Chivilli, SS, 17
Chivilli has Tier 2 talent with a Tier None performance to start his pro career in the DSL this year. It’s easy to ignore the small sample size data and on the other hand it’s easy to ignore the often unreliable pre-signing scouting reports. Those reports have Chivilli as having solid tools across the board, a potential five-tool guy at shortstop. He’s 6’3”, lanky/lean, and looks like there is a lot of room to add good meat to the bone on video. While I saw the offensive talent on display with pull side impact and speed on the basepaths, I also saw him strike out, which is a regular occurrence for Chivilli. In his 25 games played at the DSL, he had at least one strikeout in all but two of those games and ended with a strikeout rate of 38%. That was a big contributor in him hitting below the Mendoza Line. There simply wasn’t much to hang your hat on with Chivilli from a results perspective. Given his prospect pedigree as a top 50 International prospect in the most recent class and getting just over $2M from the Twins and raw physical tools, I’m comfortable with a Tier 3 ranking and giving him a higher ceiling than is typical for this Tier. Risk: 10, Ceiling: 6-8
Ariel Castro, OF, 17
The Twins biggest signing of the most recent International Free Agency period at $2.4M is a highly projectable corner outfield masher that we had ranked 10th overall in the class. His performance in the DSL this year left a fair bit to be desired as he struck out over one-third of the time. When he did barrel the ball, it was impressive, but it was all too infrequent. At 6’2” and 180-ish, there looks to be plenty of opportunity to add good weight to his lanky frame and reach his raw power projections.
All of the signs are still there for Castro to deliver on his pre-season evaluation. I liked the pull side juice, the short swing, and the frame. The swing and miss on not just breaking balls but also fastballs along with the overall statistical results are what keeps him from any thought of being in Tier 2, but his Ceiling is going to still reflect a higher than normal Tier 3 player given his prospect pedigree. He’s the definition of raw at this point. Risk: 10, Ceiling: 6-8
Ricardo Olivar, C/OF, 22
Olivar broke out last year when he repeated the Complex level and had a BABIP-fueled .349 batting average as a too old for the level prospect, leading to ending up on some data-driven catcher lists. In 2023, at a more age appropriate Single-A assignment, Olivar has continued to deliver strong results. He’s maintained a strong walk rate at 13% and a low strikeout rate at 21% while hitting .285, hitting 10 home runs, and stealing 12 bases. What’s even more interesting is that what was once dabbling in the outfield in 2022 has turned into a full-fledged split between catcher and outfield. There is easy power in the bat and I’m a bit surprised I haven’t heard much buzz on Olivar this year given the results. With him adding a non-catcher position to his future paths to an MLB role, he gets into my Tier 3 as an arrow up guy. Risk: 7, Ceiling: 6
Omari Daniel, 1B/3B, 19
Daniel is mostly an incomplete grade and I’m ranking in Tier 3 based on pedigree and scouting reports more than anything, similar to Raymond Mola in this same product. He had Tommy John surgery prior to the 2022 MLB Draft, depressing his draft stock and causing him to fall all the way to the 14th round, where the Twins picked him by throwing a bit of extra money at him. He’s had less than 20 games at the Complex in 2023 and hasn’t played since early July due to what I can only assume is an injury. The draft team had evaluated him with “electric bat speed” and a “howitzer for an arm”. That arm should be able to keep him at third base even though he spent a few more games at first base at the Complex. I’m somewhat wishcasting Daniel into Tier 3, but I don’t want to penalize him for lack of sample size and injury as well as getting him lost in the morass of Tier None. All that is to say we likely won't have a better idea of what Daniel is as a pro until 2024. Risk: 10, Ceiling: 5-7
Jorel Ortega, 3B/2B, 22
A 6th-rounder from the 2022 Draft who’s thus far continued his power breakout from his one year at Tennessee, Ortega is a bat-first infielder. He’s yet to reach AA, but anyone who hits 50 XBH in a MiLB season has significant pop. His swing is geared for power, and when he’s on time it’s to all fields. It’s contact issues that will likely be his kryptonite – and we’ve seen it in the past month as his approach issues have been exploited and his season K% has ticked up into the mid-20’s. Still, I think there’s a fringe-average potential hit tool here, and teachable development to be had. It’s also great that he’s handled 3B well this year - a new position for him that’s a feather in his cap of versatility. I’m eager to see just how exposed he looks as he moves (hopefully) to AA next year. If he keeps his contact issues in check, I could see a 20-25 HR MLB-utility bat. To me, that deserves a modicum of hobby interest. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 5
tier none
Fredy Michel, OF/2B, 19
Michel was a top 30 International prospect when the Twins signed him back in 2021, but things have gone downhill since. He’s not once hit over the Mendoza Line in three years and has a total of three home runs over that same time. He’s never run a strikeout rate lower than 30% either. At this point, stolen bases may be his only added value, but he’s going to need to get on base for that to even matter and that’s not happening often enough. If he’s struggling this much at these lower levels, it’s going to take a significant change to find any hobby interest in the future, let alone an MLB role. Risk: 9, Ceiling: 3
New York Mets
tier 1
None
tier 2
Blade Tidwell, P, 22
This Blade is no vampire hunter, but his 97 MPH fastball might do some work against bloodsuckers. Tidwell was a 2nd Round pick last year out of Tennessee, so there’s a baked in hobby floor there. At 6’4” he’s the archetype of a projectable power pitcher’s body – and though he’s 22 there is still some room for physical growth. His fastball is plus and he has a nasty high-spin slider to pair with it. There’s also a change and curve that need some work, especially against the advanced hitters he’s facing in AA now. It’s the consistency and command we have worry for here. When it’s on he has no problem using his current arsenal to spin highlight reel outings, but when he’s off he really gets hit hard. For a microcosm of his year, in 3 of his 6 starts at AA he’s given up 15 H / 12 BB / 12 K in 12 innings. The other three? 12 H / 3 BB / 19 K in 17 innings. In short, he will go as high as the improvements in command he can muster. For the hobby, it’s a pretty great ceiling but he’s more likely an age-24 debut if he gets there without any speed bumps, and there’s clearly some relief risk. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 7
Jacob Reimer, 3B, 19
Reimer was a prep 2022 4th Round draftee, praised for his all-around skillset. So far he’s provided everything as promised, especially his hit tool. Reimer has an open stance that he uses very well to square up pitches and go to all fields. He rarely makes poor swing decisions, and that’s gotten him to High-A in his first full season. What I see is that while he’s very well built already and has a classic 6`2” 3B frame, he doesn’t use his natural levers very well yet. He has above average raw power, and it plays in how hard he hits the ball. To me there’s a hope that he tweaks his approach to get to more game power – there’s still plenty of development time for it. If he does there’s a world where he’s average or better across the board. That, coupled with playing in a great market for the hobby, leaves him squarely as one of the top 15 chases in this product to me. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 7
tier 3
Yonatan Henriquez, 3B, 18
Part of the 2022 Mets International Free Agency class, but not the most heralded player in that group. Henriquez performed relatively well in the DSL in 2022, but saw his results dip in the Florida Complex League in 2023. Looking with a bit more of a critical eye, the FCL tends to be tougher on hitters than the DSL and a fair amount of his dip is equivalent to the 40 point dip in BABIP in 2023. He maintained a really strong walk rate at just under 17% and a really strong strikeout rate at just under 20%. There’s a little bit of speed and just gap power currently.
I couldn’t find any 2023 tape so to the 2022 tape I went and I liked what I saw. Looks like a decent athlete with ability to adjust his swing and approach at the plate, was aggressive with balls in the zone, and put the bat on the ball a lot even if he didn’t have a ton of success. While he’s spent most of his time at third base, I don’t see him ever having enough pop to stick there and he looks more like a second baseman to me, which will put more pressure on his bat. He feels like a sum of the parts guy that has a potential MLB future, especially with the plate discipline he’s exhibited. Add in that he’s on a collectable team and that’s enough for me to push him into Tier 3, even if it’s a lower ceiling than usual here. Risk: 8, Ceiling: 4
tier none
Vincent Perozo, C, 20
My writeup from May’s Bowman release, where he had no autos, indicated that I was enamored with Perozo’s power potential heading into the season. While he’s shown some, it’s fair to say that his lack of ability to make enough contact has reduced his usable power considerably. His hit tool in general has stepped back to where I don’t know if he gets bumped to High-A to begin 2024. A heavy workload makes this more eye-popping, but Perozo has given up 116 steals to date, and caught only 16. That’s not good at any level, and a feather in the cap to just not trust any linearity in the development of catchers. He looks farther away now than he did at the beginning of the season. I think he still has starter upside, but he’s also easier to fade for the hobby. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 5
Dangelo Sarmiento, SS, 18
This was a lost year of development for Sarmiento, having only seen 14 games in the Complex. The more important takeaway is in his physical growth – it’s apparent that he’s added 10-15 lbs of muscle since he showed off a decent bat in the DSL last year. It’s a welcome change for a player whose main concerns are tied to a lack of physicality. He’s projected as a potential plus fielder and plus runner, but those reports are a year old, so take that with a grain of salt. It remains to be seen if he has any power at all, and while had a .373 OBP / sub-20 K% in the DSL in 2022, his plate skills weren’t superlative. We wanted to see more of the same this year before making Sarmiento an actionable prospect for the hobby. I think that status is unchanged. He’s deserving of the lukewarm-at-best reception he’ll receive for this product. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 4
Diego Mosquera, SS, 19
Defense is the name of the game for Mosquera, and despite his short stature he plays a really solid SS. His lower body has really filled out though, to the extent that long-term I’m afraid that he’ll be a 2B. There’s something to his hit tool as well, though he’ll need to fill out his upper body as well before we know if there’s enough pop to play at all. The next HR he hits will be his first as a professional. He has a contact oriented swing, but at a 60 GB% and just average speed, it’s not yielding great results. He did miss a year of development last year and has made it to Low-A in his first year stateside, so there’s definite room for growth. But for a player who seems like he’ll only have one tool (hit) we care about for the hobby, and being so far away it’s too low of a ceiling for my taste. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 3
Daiverson Gutierrez, C, 18
There is some prospect pedigree with Gutierrez being the most expensive signing of the Mets in the most recent International Free Agency class for $1.9M out of Venezuela. In his first pass at the DSL, it was underwhelming to say the least with just two home runs and hitting under .200. One positive is that he didn’t strike out much with a K rate under 20%. Watching the video was likewise underwhelming as he did not look comfortable in the box and didn’t make much impact.
Physically, he looks like a typical catcher body, not too tall and a bit stocky already. Add in the fact that he looked competent behind the plate and he should be able to stick at catcher. That gives him a future backup catcher role at the very least, but if the offense and promised future power don’t show up, there isn’t much here to get excited about. The prospect pedigree (top 30-ish International signing) and team collectability give Gutierrez some minor interest and Ceiling, but the position and 2023 results put him down in Tier None for now. Risk: 10, Ceiling: 4-6
Chase Estep, 1B/3B, 23
A 9th round pick out of the University of Kentucky in 2022, Estep had a big jump in his junior season to go from a potential UDFA to a top 10 round pick. While spending most of his time in Lexington at the hot corner, he surprisingly played more first base than anywhere else in the Mets minor league system in 2023. The offensive profile isn’t strong enough long term to stick at first base and the glove may not be good enough to be a regular at third base, leading most to believe he’s a second baseman long term. There isn’t a standout tool, and the hit and stolen bases are probably below average. If he can hit enough, there is some power, but it’s not enough to get him out of the Utility role or Tier None. Risk: 8, Ceiling: 4
Joel Díaz, P, 19
Any pitcher who has had major arm surgery and has yet to start throwing again leading into a product release gets defaulted to Tier None and then will have to work their way up depending on their profile. Díaz was one of the best arms in DSL in 2021 and then struggled with command in 2022 in Single-A. Not sure why the Mets had him skip the Complex in 2022, and I would be rich like Steve Cohen if I got a dollar for every time I said “Not sure why the Mets…”.
Diaz has a good frame along with two solid pitches highlighted by a curveball and a third pitch in a changeup that was inconsistent but starting to show out towards the end of 2022. If he comes back healthy, and gets consistent with his command and changeup, there’s a future starter here and potentially a Tier 3, mid-rotation pitcher. If the changeup doesn’t work out, he’s likely headed to the bullpen and will remain a Tier None pitcher. Risk: 9, Ceiling: 3
New York Yankees
tier 1
Brando Mayea, OF, 18
Off the top I should mention that Topps has him as “Brandon” rather than “Brando” and when he first signed, I saw plenty of confusion on this score, so I can’t completely blame Topps for not getting this correct. In the first DSL game I turn on for Mayea and he takes a 1-2 fastball on the outside edge of the plate in the air to the gap and it ends up on the other side of the opposite field wall, a bit to my surprise. And then in his second at bat, he again took an outside fastball and went with the pitch for a single between the first and second baseman. It was nice to see a young prospect willing to take what the pitcher gave him and succeed with it. On the positive side, Mayea stole 22 bags, hit .276, and kept his strikeout rate under 16% in 38 games. On the negative side, he only hit three home runs and had a high ground ball rate of 58%.
Mayea got the third highest bonus in the 2023 International Free Agency period at $4.4M, and even more importantly for the hobby, it was from the Yankees. He was regularly ranked in the top 10 of his class and his performance in the DSL, while not eye-popping, didn’t change that opinion. The bat to ball skills and speed were as advertised, and I saw first-hand evidence of the pop. If he was not in Yankees pinstripes, it would be a conversation on whether he belongs in Tier 2 rather than Tier 1, but the prospect pedigree and team collectability is going to drive that hobby hype train to Tier 1 whether we agree or not. I’d like to see more present power to be comfortable with the Tier 1 ranking, but I can’t argue too much given all of the context and I will push him up into Tier 1. Risk: 8, Ceiling: 7-9
tier 2
Keiner Delgado, 2B/SS, 19
Delgado is a hit and speed middle infielder starter kit with a bit more pop than you would think given his smaller stature. He’s a strike zone expert and will keep his strikeout rate quite low. Advanced pitching may expose this a bit more as that high level of patience he uses to his advantage in the lower levels could put him regularly behind in counts. He’s also got a pretty big leg kick that also could be exploited, although it looks like he goes to more of a quicker toe tap motion in two strike counts. While his rates all looked really good in the DSL, one note of minor concern was his ground ball rate at the Complex got up to 48%. This is a borderline Tier 2/Tier 3 profile for me given what is probably just average power at the MLB level, but the Yankees bump gives it that push into Tier 2. Risk: 8, Ceiling: 7
Tier 3
Hans Montero, 3B/SS, 19
Montero was the Yankees’ top signer in the 2021 J15 period for $1.7 MM and immediately went to the DSL and struggled. He repeated the level last year, where surface numbers looked equally as bad, but there was clear progress to his approach as he grew into his body a little bit. This year, he moved to the Complex where his approach looked really good. I love a prospect like this - I feel like I’m buying on the rebound with some pedigree as a foundation. He has a contact oriented swing and at least gap-to-gap pop. He has the patience to find his pitch and the emergent skill to make enough contact until he gets it. All told in the Complex he had close to a BB:K that was close to 1, paired with a .419 OBP and 14 XBH. It sets him squarely back on track as a prospect, where Low-A awaits him to start 2024. Roderick Arias is an obstacle to his playing SS, but he profiles well defensively anywhere in the infield - that’s not a concern. There’s just that question of possible regression considering past struggles, but I’m putting my money on him going the other way. If he maxes out his potential, to me he’s an above-average utility player and that’s a ceiling that I personally like. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 6
Luis Serna, P, 19
Serna lands on the border between Tier None and Tier 3 for me. On the positive side, he has a promising set of secondaries with a changeup that falls off the table beautifully. It gets a ton of swing-and-miss versus lower level hitters. His slider and curveball likewise flash and prove effective at getting swing and miss. His fastball plays up with his secondaries, but the velocity is only low 90’s. He’s also a bit on the small side than you would normally like in a starting pitcher. Adding strength and velocity is why I assume the Yankees had him repeat the Complex level in 2023. There’s a potential SP3/SP4 with Serna a long ways down the road and the Yankees hobby bump gets him into Tier 3. On a lesser team, he probably ends up in Tier None. Risk: 9, Ceiling 5
Will Warren, P, 24
A 2021 8th round pick out of Southeastern Louisiana University in 2021, Warren is on the verge of getting called up by the Yankees, more than likely in a bullpen role. That’s a relatively successful real baseball story even if it doesn’t have a ton of hobby impact.
Warren throws variations of a fastball and a slider/sweeper that make his arsenal seem more diverse than it really is, but both of those overarching pitches are MLB quality. There’s a less-frequently thrown changeup as well that he uses to get ground balls with but doesn’t generate a ton of swing and miss.
As a Yankee prospect and one that has gotten a fair amount of buzz, it’s almost a default ranking to drop him into at least Tier 3. If he was projected long term as a starter, I would feel even more confident in the Tier 3 ranking and maybe even consider him for Tier 2. However, he’s walking a bit too many batters and giving up too many home runs to be comfortable that he’s a no-questions-asked future starter. Bullpen arms typically go into Tier None, but the Yankees bump and proximity get him into Tier 3. Risk: 1, Ceiling: 4
tier none
Jesús Bastidas, SS/2B, 24
Bastidas had a minor power breakout in a full season spent at Double-A in 2022, clubbing 18 home runs after having never reached double digits in his previous seasons. In 2023, his results have regressed a bit with just 12 home runs across Double-A and Triple-A. He’s spent most of the year at Triple-A, but he did have a mysterious demotion to Double-A at the beginning of August before getting back to Triple-A three weeks later. At Triple-A, the walk rate has fallen down to 7% and the strikeout rate has climbed up to 24%. A shorter guy at 5 '8”, he’s got a launch angle geared swing, so the double digit power is probably not a mirage even with his smaller stature. Without any standout tools and not really popping on any prospect radars in the past few years, Bastidas looks like a bench bat/org depth type of player that can play anywhere on the dirt given the strength of his glove, even if he best fits at second base. Risk: 2, Ceiling: 4
Oakland Athletics
tier 1
None
tier 2
Zack Gelof, 2B/3B, 23
Already getting his 1st Bowman base in 2023 Bowman, Gelof is getting his 1st Bowman auto in 2023 Bowman Chrome, so it’s time to revisit my opinion on him. Since I wrote him up, Gelof got called up and has continued leading the charmed life at the MLB level. The surface level statistics are impressive - he’s hitting .267 with 11 home runs, 10 stolen bases, and a wRC+ of 133 in just 51 MLB games. Starting to look a bit closer, we can see that Gelof has been a fastball killer, and particularly fastballs up in the zone. As I mentioned in my 2023 Bowman write-up, and has been part of his scouting reports all along, Gelof has a flat swing, and with that bat path, he is able to tattoo the in-vogue high heat. When it comes to the bottom of the zone, and especially with off-speed and breaking balls, things look a lot less rosy for Gelof.
As the book on Gelof grows and his weaknesses get exploited, I have a hard time thinking he will continue this level of success at the MLB level. On the other hand, I have to give credit where credit is due. I had Gelof as a borderline Tier 3 player in 2023 Bowman with the team context keeping him from reaching Tier 2, but given what he’s done so far, he’s getting a positive bump to his tier, risk, and ceilings, at least in the short term. He’s proved he can be a major leaguer with his speed and thump. Will he be more than just an above average player in the long term? I’m still not sure I see it, and I would take advantage of positive market trends to sell. Risk: 1, Ceiling: 7
tier 3
Brennan Milone, 1B/2B, 22
I like Milone. He was a highly regarded prep in 2019, and he finally made good on it in 2023 playing for Oregon, when he was taken in the 6th Round of the Draft. My personal performance-based ranks are high on him based on what he’s done this year. Even when we just look at what he’s done at the age-appropriate High-A, it’s a .260/.382/.480 slash with 20 XBH (7 HR) in 50 games. He doesn’t swing and miss much so while his K% is in the low 20’s I think it’ll stay there. Defense is more of an issue - there’s an outside shot he can play 2B, but he’s more likely to stick as a 1B. So while what he’s done so far is enough to profile well as an MLB player at the position, it absolutely has to continue. And if he does what he’s done this year at AA next year, he’s a probably better 1B than what the A’s are using now. Second division regular as a 60th% outcome, is what I’m saying. Not much ceiling to be had here as there are pretty clearly no plus tools, but he’s going to play in Oakland (or Vegas) Risk: 4 Ceiling: 5
tier none
Yeniel Laboy, 1B/3B, 19
A 7th round Puerto Rican prep from last year’s draft, Laboy’s body has outgrown SS already. Whether he ends up at 1B or 3B, he’ll need to add more power to his offensive profile to continue at those positions. At 6`3” there’s some hope he gets to it, but his closed, pre-coiled stance is an odd one and lends itself more to contact. There are some solid swing decisions – more than his late-round status would dictate, and he posted .455 OBP in the Complex before moving to Low-A. It’s been more of a challenge in Stockton but the foundation remains. It all comes down to how his body fills out and if he can modify his swing plane to maximize his natural power. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 4
Clark Elliott, OF, 22
I was in on Elliott in 2022 Bowman Draft where had base cards, so I know how disappointing his performance is thus far. In short it’s the complete lack of power. It was never supposed to be his best tool, but he has 0 HR and only 7 XBH in over 60 games at High-A, where he’s age appropriate. This is the type of thing I usually say about 18 YO’s who haven’t grown into their bodies yet, not 3rd-Rounders from Division 1 college programs. His contact rates and swing decisions are absolutely as advertised, which is good, but his impact has just been totally underwhelming, which is a bit of a shock considering he did perform well on the Cape. Unless he has an offseason where he really hits the weights and puts on 10-15 lbs of good muscle, or makes a massive swing overhaul (neither of which are predictable), he’s unlikely to ever make it out of the minors. He doesn’t have great speed or defensive ability to fall back on. Don’t be like me. Add in the poor team context, and he’s squarely an avoid for the hobby at this point. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 3
Bjay Cooke, SS, 20
Billed as a two-way player when he signed in 2022 out of Australia and reported that the A’s would let Bailey-Jay hit and pitch. However, Cooke has yet to log a pitch thrown in a pro game while primarily spending his time at shortstop with a bit of second base mixed in. 2023 was his pass at full season ball, spending it all in Stockton (yuck!), the A’s Single-A affiliate. It was not a successful endeavor as he hit under .200 with an almost 40% strikeout rate and just two home runs. To be fair, I wouldn’t be performing at my best if I lived in Stockton either. About the only positive was that he stole 14 bags and was looking to regularly run when he did get on base. Really lanky at the moment, Cooke looks like he could add good mass to help turn his regular weak contact into impactful contact. However, Cooke is trending as a slappy speed up the middle backup without much of a ceiling or hobby interest. Risk: 8, Ceiling: 3
Joey Estes, P, 21
Acquired as part of the Matt Olson deal from the Braves (YIKES, don’t look at the return A’s fans), Estes was once a young, promising starting pitching arm in a system capable of developing that profile. Now, he’s a raw hurler with a good fastball, somewhat effective slider, inconsistent changeup, and rough command in an organization more concerned about alienating its fans than developing its prospects. Add in the fact that his Triple-A statcast data is concerning with a sub-90 mph fastball and it’s a huge hobby red flag. At this point Estes looks like an SP5 or some form of a bullpen arm, and that’s an easy Tier None rank. Risk: 3, Ceiling: 2
Philadelphia Phillies
tier 1
None
tier 2
None
tier 3
Carlos De La Cruz, OF, 23
I hate to root against a UDFA who spent 4 years getting to relevance in the minors, but I’m not personally a fan of De La Cruz’s profile. I recognize the massive hobby potential though. His raw power is top-of-the-scale, but at 6’8” he’s never going to tap into all of it – he definitely gets to enough though! His K% has also always run high, and it mostly ties back to the holes in his swing that are created by his frame. He’s also bit too aggressive at the plate, which the easiest area to say he can improve in to make it as a MLB regular. High-wasted and thin-framed, he moves well enough to be an OF but he’s no threat on the basepaths. To me right now he’d be a .220 / 30 HR type given the shot, and that’s a profile we see all over the majors. The issue is that in real life his OBP would be sub-.300 (so he wouldn’t get that run) and for the hobby he’ll already be 24 when he debuts. I just can’t quite get to calling him Tier 2, but he’s at the top of Tier 3 for now. Risk: 4 Ceiling: 6
Bryan Rincon, SS, 19
It’s very apparent Phillies’ scouts had good eyes on Rincon in their own state, as the 2022 14th-Round pick from the Pittsburgh area has outperformed that late round status by a wide margin, He’s been moved to High-A quickly, mostly because he proved himself defensively at SS. But he’s shown potential to be more than that, especially when we consider how raw he should be. HIs BB:K has hovered around 1, and he’s made excellent swing decisions all season that make me think that with maturity, his hit tool could be plus. There’s also a little bit of pop already, with a .141 ISO at Low-A before his promotion. Put it all together, and there’s an outside shot that he ends up as a five tool player. Now that’s an absolute ceiling and his body has to develop perfectly for it, but it’s a nice dream. The surface stats don’t show much, so this is a fantastic sleeper for this product. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 6
Starlyn Caba, SS, 17
In this product he’s Jesus, but he prefers Starlyn so I wanted to give him his preferred name here in the title. Caba was the crown jewel of the Philles’ 2023 J15 class, signing for $3 MM. It was on the strength of his supposed double plus defensive projection at SS with plus speed and a good hit tool to pair with it. He proved all of those things to be true in the DSL. In fact, his 1.75 BB:K ratio was 5th in the DSL, and his SwStr% was elite as well. It’s a great sign for his hit tool – he still needs a lot of physical maturity, but those numbers dictate that he could be a player whose hit tool is so strong that his game power outpaces his raw. And it’s the power that’s his biggest question. He’s listed at 5’10”, so he’s not a physical presence, and his swing is very clearly geared for contact. While no player in the DSL is safe, I would put money on Caba skipping the Complex and starting 2024 in Low-A where we’ll get a better idea if he can be a quick riser, or lack of physical maturity will be an obstacle. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 6-8
tier none
Rickardo Perez, C, 19
Well, there’s little changed from when he was written up for the Bowman preview in May – Perez was suspended for the entire MiLB season for undisclosed reasons. It’s a lost year of development at the toughest position, which is significant. Beyond that, we have to assume it’s the same player – good hit, little power, solid defense. Add the knucklehead factor to that, and it’s solidly a down arrow from when he had base cards in May (he’s auto-only in this release). Risk: 8 Ceiling: 4
Marcus Lee Sang, OF, 22
Not much has changed with my opinion of Lee Sang since I wrote him up in the spring for 2023 Bowman. He’s hitting for average pop, he’s striking out too much, and he’s got above average speed for now. A strong side platoon outfielder still seems like the most likely outcome. He’s made it up to Double-A to end the season, so the risk value gets slightly improved with more proximity, but nothing else changes other than he now has official 1st Bowman Autographs. Yay? Risk: 6, Ceiling: 4
Griff McGarry, P, 24
Griff McGarry should change his name to Griff McWalky if he is all into that accuracy thing, but as we know, McGarry really has trouble with that accuracy thing. He has bottom of the barrel command which tickets the electric arm for a bullpen role even though he’s started every game he’s pitched this year. He’s got three plus pitches as well as a decent changeup as his fourth offering, so you can understand why the Phillies would keep trying to see if he can figure out the whole starting pitcher deal. He spent most of the year in Double-A and had a gaudy 32% strikeout rate but a scary 15% walk rate to pair with that. If the Phillies magically turn McBullpen into McStarter, then he’s going to quickly climb the tiers. That is an almost impossible to achieve “if” at this point, so he’ll remain in Tier None until we see a significant increase in commands and equal drop in walks. Risk: 3, Ceiling: 3
Pittsburgh Pirates
tier 1
None
tier 2
None
tier 3
Axiel Plaz, C, 18
A 315k bonus signer in the 2022 J15 period, Plaz showed some pretty great power in limited DSL action last year, smacking 15 XBH in just 32 games. He has a prototypical stocky catcher build and a swing geared for that power that he showed, so there was little reason to doubt there was some truth to his performance. Well, now there is. In the Complex this year Plaz was used sparingly at catcher, a statement on how far away he is defensively. Furthermore, he looked completely different offensively, striking out over 30% of time and seeing very low quality of contact, resulting in a .144 BA. I think it’s fair to say that his ceiling lies somewhere in the middle, but he’s not likely headed to full season ball to start next year so disappointingly, we have to toss him into the mystery box bucket. I wasn’t expecting this before the season. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 6
Raymond Mola, OF, 17
This is more of a Tier Incomplete ranking given that Mola has barely played professional baseball. A consensus top 30 International Free Agent in the most recent class as an outfielder that could do everything well but nothing stood out in the tool set. A wrist injury had him on the injured list from the very beginning of the DSL season and he was only able to get in seven unremarkable games at the tail end of the season. This is a default ranking based on his pre-signing reports but is subject to significant change when we see an actual usable sample size of data and video. Risk: 10, Ceiling: 5-7
Jun-Seok Shim, P, 19
A top 10-ish International Free Agent, Shim was in consideration as the top overall pick in the KBO draft coming out of high school, but instead chose to sign with Pirates for $750K. His first start at the Complex was impressive, going four innings, giving up zero hits, and striking out eight batters. He followed that up with a much shorter inning and two thirds outing and then not pitching in a Complex game until six weeks later, getting in two more starts of less than two innings each. And that’s it for his professional sample size, so we really don’t have a ton to go on.
His arsenal is a mid-90s fastball which can reportedly touch triple digits, a very attractive 12-6 curveball, and a slider as his third pitch which is less used and developed at this point (I didn’t see it in the few videos I could find). With the small sample, the best we can do is speculate that Shim has the potential for a strike-throwing mid-rotation starter. The prospect pedigree and added international collector base give him enough context to include him in Tier 3 and then revisit this ranking once he gets a bulk of usable innings to evaluate in 2024. Risk: 10, Ceiling: 5-7
tier none
Enmanuel Terrero, OF, 20
After a strong showing at the Complex in 2022, Terrero became a name to watch in 2023. The results at Single-A in 2023 weren’t as eye-opening, but they were still above average with a wRC+ of 119. The strikeout jumped significantly, going from well under 20% to almost 26%. The groundball rate has always been a source of concern, and that didn’t change much, still north of 50%. There is present speed, but given his already thicker frame, I’m concerned that doesn’t translate in the long term. That could also drag down his current above average BABIP, further impacting his stat-lines. Current consensus is that Terrero looks like a 4th/5th outfielder and I agree, which puts him in that Tier None group until we see changes to his approach. Risk: 7, Ceiling: 5
Javier Rivas, SS, 21
Signed way back in July 2019, he has been a slow burn and just this year made it to Low-A for the first time, but was demoted back to the Complex in June. He’s a very free swinger, and that will need to change to achieve significant success even at the lowest level. There’s a bit of pop, but it’s not really usable in-game at an age-appropriate level. With his being 21 and poor track record, it’s hard to imagine Rivas even reaching the upper minors. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 1
San Diego Padres
tier 1
Ethan Salas, C, 17
Easiest Tier 1 decision in the product. Period (are you supposed to write “Period” after putting a period?). He is the headliner and if he was not on the checklist, this product would be in big trouble from a general hobby public perspective. Even non-prospectors in the baseball card world, or heck, in the general baseball world, are aware of Ethan Salas as he ascended to the Top 10 of pretty much every prospect list imaginable by mid-season.
The Salas story starts as the consensus number one overall prospect in the 2023 International Free Agent class by the Padres (that’s an important piece of context as you will see). A.J. Preller may be the most aggressive GM in baseball with pushing his prospects up the minor league levels. So you start with an ultra-talented teenager with huge prospect pedigree and an aggressive GM and you end up with the Ethan Salas rocketship in 2023. He gets sent to Spring Training as a 16 year old, a pretty much unheard-of move. Then he skips not only the DSL (which happens in rare circumstances), but he also skips the Complex (pretty much unheard of and definitely hasn’t been done since Minor League contraction), and goes straight to Single-A to start his pro career. Not to mention Salas plays one of the toughest positions to learn and excel at in baseball as a catcher, which just makes this ride all the more rare. But it doesn’t stop there. Salas, with a 122 wRC+ in Single-A, then gets promoted to High-A after the first week of August. Less than two WEEKS later, he gets promoted Double-A, where he promptly gets the walk-off, game-winning hit in his very first game. Salas, to say the least, is not phased by his situation, showing an elite makeup. The only thing that stopped him, unfortunately, was an ankle injury after nine games in Double-A, leading the Padres to shut him down for the remainder of the season.
There are easily four potential plus tools with the only one that may just be average being the run tool. Digging into the stats only make sense at the Single-A level as he had a small but usable sample of 48 games. He hit .267 with acceptable walk (11%) and strikeout (26%) rates given his youth and lack of experience. Oh, and he hit 9 home runs in 48 games - like, it’s just that easy for Salas. About the only thing that can hold Salas back in the hobby is his position, and ultimately the elite catchers, like Adley, can overcome that hobby bias, like Salas should as well. Risk: 4, Ceiling: 10
tier 2
None
tier 3
None
tier none
Lamar King Jr, C, 19
Mid-Round prep catchers are tough for the hobby, and King is no exception. He definitely has the pedigree of an elite athlete, as his dad was a 1st-Round defensive end and played 5 years in the NFL. Junior looks to have the same athletic build in his 6’3” frame. As far as baseball skills, King is a project defensively. He was limited in his defensive time as he went down with an injury in late July, but he only threw out 6% of baserunners. Offensively, he’s a bit more advanced, although he has to grow into any power. His K% was high but he ran a crazy .478 BABIP because he hit so many line drives. It’s sushi-raw, but his hit tool could end up being average or better. I think he’s likely to repeat the Complex next year, because same as it ever was, catchers take a long time to develop. King also has cards in Bowman Draft last year, so his autographs here won’t have the 1st Bowman logo - another tick in the negative. There’s all the risk in the world and a very cloudy vision of some sort of offense-first ceiling at a TBD position. Hobby interest should be limited here. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 3
Spence Coffman, SS, 19
A 19th Rounder signed out a high school in rural northeast Mississippi, Coffman is definitely a project. As such, he’s only seen 60 PA’s as a pro to date, so there’s not enough to make any sort of evaluation. He posted above-average run times as an amateur and has an ideal frame for a SS that he still has to grow into. With the limited BP video I saw, there’s framework for a nice swing but he was inconsistent in making hard contact. He’s simply a mystery box that won’t be a quick riser. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 3-5
Eddy Beltre, OF, 19
Beltre is a contact oriented speedy outfielder that the Padres signed during the 2021 International Free Agency class. He only got eight games at the Complex this year after just 28 games there last year. I wasn’t able to find any info on why, but I am going to guess some form of injury kept him from a full season down in Arizona. All that is to say is that there is very little to go on to see if Beltre is a viable prospect or if his trend towards a non-prospect is reality. He’s always been willing to take a walk, but he’s also struck out a lot in his small sample sizes. He’s on the skinnier, speedier side, so power doesn’t look to be part of his game and I didn’t see any future power in the little video I could find. This is mostly an incomplete grade, but it’s going to be a tall hill to climb regardless for Beltre to reach hobby relevancy. Risk: 9, Ceiling: 4
San Francisco Giants
tier 1
Rayner Arias, OF, 17
I don’t quite know what to do with my hands as I begin writing up Arias. There may be some slight bias here as a Giants fan, but I think you will find evaluators in general echoing my thoughts. I’m not the only one on staff who loves him, as he was No.1 in Alex Jensen’s Top 50 2023 Performers. Unfortunately, we only got 16 games from Arias before a wrist injury ended his DSL season, but oh, what 16 games it was. He was dominant hitting .414 with 4 home runs, 4 stolen bases, and sub-15% strikeout rate. The at bats we did get to see were athletic and electric swings, regularly barreling the ball with plenty of hard contact.
Arias also has the pedigree as the top International Free Agent signing of the Giants in the 2023 class and being the son of a former MLB pitcher/current MLB scout. He’s also been praised for his work ethic and baseball IQ, adding that extra bit of confidence in being able to rank Arias in Tier 1. All in all, even with the abbreviated pro debut season, Arias is a top 5 player in this product. Risk: 9, Ceiling: 9
tier 2
None
tier 3
None
Tier None
None
Seattle Mariners
tier 1
Felnin Celesten, SS, 17
I share a birthday with Mr. Celesten, so as he comes of age a few days after this product’s release I’ll be….much older. Before Ethan Salas burst onto the scene and classified as an international class-eligible player, Celesten was talked about as the top prospect in this J15 class for years. His $4.7 MM signing bonus indicates he didn’t fall far from that. He projects to be a 5-tool talent that will stick as a SS as he matures, and his present physique leaves room for him to get at it quickly. Though missed the entire season due to a hamstring, he’s been working stateside and figures to go straight to the Complex (or Low-A if he impresses in instructs) in 2024. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 8-10
tier 2
None
tier 3
Axel Sanchez, SS, 20
I look silly for writing up Sanchez the way I did back in May (he has his first autos in this release, was base-only back then). I was very high on him in my writeup, but every caution I included in saying what I did has come to it’s worst case. He’s ticked up to a 29 K%, is still pulling the ball too much, and his swing decisions have gotten worse in his first full taste of High-A. It’s made the surface results look quite ghastly – a .200/.285/.353 slash. His defense even stepped back – Cole Young is squarely ahead of him in all aspects now and really deserves all the SS reps over Sanchez. It’s almost a relief (it’s not, it’s actually bad) that he went down with an injury in late July and hasn’t returned. Beneath it all there is a still a solid glove and a decent power/speed blend, but there’s a ton of work to be done, and his hit tool is more concerning than ever. For the hobby he’s still a nice flier, but no longer would I put him in the great expectations bucket. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 5
tier none
Edryn Rodriguez, 2B/SS, 20
Signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2019 for $430K, the slight middle infielder is a contact oriented prospect who’s offensively trended worse and worse as he moves through the levels. After starting the year in Single-A and achieving a -2 wRC+ (yes, that’s a negative sign) through 34 games, he was sent back to the Complex, which is where he spent all of 2022. Unfortunately he still ended up with a sub-100 wRC+ while back at the Complex and has fallen off of the prospect radar at this point. His defense still gives him a potential MLB future, but he’s going to have to figure out how to enhance his quality of contact to make any sort of impact. Risk: 9, Ceiling: 4
St. Louis Cardinals
tier 1
None
tier 2
None
tier 3
Gordon Graceffo, P, 23
If Graceffo was getting his 1st Bowman in 2022 Bowman Chrome rather than 2023 Bowman Chrome, we may have been talking about a Tier 2 pitcher rather than a Tier 3 pitcher with bullpen/Tier None concerns. He was viewed as a future mid-rotation starter coming into the season and a shoulder injury plus escalating walk rates have led to more of an SP4 with bullpen risk profile. Graceffo has strikeout stuff with four above average to plus pitches with the slider and the changeup getting the most whiffs. Until he cuts the whiff rate in half, back to where he was in Double-A, that strikeout stuff isn’t enough to counterbalance the guys he’ll be putting on base for free. When he does get that figured out, we could be again talking about Graceffo like we were in the pre-season. Risk: 3, Ceiling: 6
Leonardo Bernal, C, 19
At the very least, Bernal deserves commendation for handling full season ball from Day 1 of the MiLB season at age 19. Not many catchers can make that claim. He’s been out since early August, but coupled with his work at the end of last year’s Low-A season we’ve seen enough in the 840 total innings he’s caught. He’s nabbed over 20% of baserunners in that time, a mark that should improve with age. His OBP ticked up over .380 this year, and his SwStr% fell down into single digits. There’s still room in his frame for physical growth, which would bode well to getting to a little more pop within his no-frills, contact-oriented swing. Of all the young catchers in this product, Bernal may be the fastest mover outside of Ethan Salas. There’s no doubt that he’s advanced defensively, and possesses a really nice foundation to his hit tool. For the hobby he’s squarely a middle of the road prospect. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 5
tier none
Luis Rodriguez, C, 18
First of all, good luck picking the correct Luis Rodriguez from the drop down on Fangraphs (seriously, do something about that Fangraphs, I’ll keep complaining until you do). Want to know what’s worse? Fangraphs doesn’t even have this Luis Rodriguez as an option to choose! It gets even more confusing because there are two Luis Rodriguezes in the Cardinals organization, and both are catchers! And guess what…Topps is equally as confused! On the Luis Rodriguez 1st Bowman base card that was made for 2023 Bowman, the photo on the front of the card is the younger Luis Rodriguez who was a top 30 International Free Agent in 2022. On the back of the card, the bio and stats are a mishmash of the 23 year old catcher in High-A that has trended towards a non-prospect as well as the 18 year old on the front of the card. At least this time we’ll be getting an autograph version of the 1st Bowman card, so hopefully that provides insight into which Luis Rodriguez this is.
For the purposes of this write-up, I’ll go with the 18 year old International Free Agent and keep it brief. He hit well in the DSL in 2022 and had the opposite experience at the Complex in 2023, hitting .221 with no home runs and no stolen bases while striking out one third of the time. He was billed as a prospect with above average hit and power tools that needed some work behind the plate to stick there. While I’m not sure about the defense, the hit and power likely have a long way to go. There is some prospect pedigree and a relatively strong team collectability factor, but the lack of 2023 performance and position (not to mention overall confusion) will limit his hobby relevance in the short term and pushes him down into Tier None. Risk: 10, Ceiling: 4-6
Tampa Bay Rays
tier 1
None
tier 2
Brailer Guerrero, OF, 17
Fairly young for his 2023 J15 class, Guerrero was a Top 15 name who signed for $3.7 MM. He only played in 7 DSL contests before going down to a season-ending injury so we didn’t get to see it, but his calling card is power. He already has good musculature and a wide-shouldered frame that still has room to develop further - think of him growing into an Adolis Garcia physique (only physique!), as a best case scenario. His hit is supposed to be his second-best tool and it could end up e above average or better. With almost no performance data to go on it’s fair to question everything else. But with easy plus raw power and a great body for it to grow into, he’s an easy player to like for the hobby and with his pedigree, and easy decision to chase. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 7-9
tier 3
None
Tier None
Jhonny Piron, OF, 19
Piron had his first Bowman cards back in 2021 Bowman Chrome, so his autographs here will NOT have the ‘1st Bowman’ logo. Back then he was a potential 5-tool talent who had just signed for $1.825 MM. Now we know a little better. Like many prospects from the 2021 J15 class, Piron has struggled to find a development path with any trajectory. He repeated the Complex this year and to his credit, he did change his approach a bit, being more aggressive and trying to hit for more contact over power. The results were more of the same – not good – and his stateside batting average now sits under .200 in 250 AB’s. He has excellent speed but it hasn’t translated to SB yet. There’s still a chance he changes for the better, but his clock is ticking and we haven’t seen the good. Furthermore, that lack of that 1st logo is a black mark. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 4
Brett Wisely, 2B/OF, 24
Traded to the Giants in the off-season as part of a 40 man roster crunch for the Rays, nevertheless Wisely still somehow manages to end up listed for the Rays on the checklist even though that trade happened 10 MONTHS AGO. Perhaps it’s a checklist mistake and he’s actually on the Giants, but we shall see. Wisely is that typical high walk, low strikeout multi-positional player that organizations like the Giants and Rays covet. As he faced more advanced pitching in Triple-A and the majors this season, that strikeout rate has backed up significantly, putting a dent in his offensive value. There’s still an MLB worthy player here, even if it’s not an everyday one. He’s got the infield/outfield combo with enough offensive skills but without an actual standout tool to be valuable on most MLB rosters. The hobby ceiling really isn’t there though - with full time run, he’s probably a .250 hitter with a good OBP, 10+ home runs, and 15+ stolen bases. However, that role probably only exists on a second division team - with first division teams, he’s a bench bat/Triple-A depth. Risk: 1, Ceiling: 4
Miguel Tamares, SS, 19
There’s not much to go on with Tamares as he played only 13 games at the Complex in 2023, missing two weeks at the end of June into July, playing three random games in July spaced out about a week each, and then not playing at all in August. I couldn’t find any info on an injury, but the most likely scenario was that he was battling through something, perhaps a soft tissue issue (I rap in my spare time). The profile is of an undersized defense and speed middle infielder who needs to develop a hit tool for an everyday role. The results in the DSL and the abbreviated Complex sample size aren’t very promising that said hit tool will develop, at least in the short term. Risk: 9, Ceiling: 3
Texas Rangers
tier 1
Sebastian Walcott, SS, 17
The only player that we have ranked in Tier 1 that does not have an autograph - that’s actually not a terrible percentage, but it still hurts to see. It especially hurts our Scouting Director Jake Kerns because he has been the conductor of the Walcott bandwagon from day one. Walcott was a consensus Top 10 prospect in the most recent International Free Agency class and was signed to the sixth highest bonus at $3.2M. He’s tall, lankier 6’4” and looks like he should be putting on solid muscle as he develops and already possesses plus power and plus speed. He’s also got a plus arm and should have no problem sticking on the left side of the infield or even bumping out to a corner outfield spot if needed.
While he started out in the DSL, he was moved to the Complex after only 9 games and spent the majority of his time there. He ended up getting promoted to High-A, because Single-A surely wouldn’t contain him. His stay was brief, as after just four games he was moved to the development list. I choose to believe it was Jake Kerns asking the Rangers for a favor so Walcott’s 1st Bowman prices wouldn’t be as outlandish as they could have gotten if he crushed High-A leading into the product release. I mean, sure, it could be the Rangers looking to use a controlled setting at improving his 30+ percent strikeout rates stateside, but since we don’t actually know, it’s funner to speculate wildly.
Focusing on his Complex efforts and considering that he struck out in almost one third of his at bats, he still managed to hit seven home runs, steal nine bases, and hit .273 in just 35 games. Comps are bad because we are so often wrong, but if you’re looking for an Elly De La Cruz starter kit, it’s right here. Risk: 8, Ceiling: 10
tier 2
None
tier 3
None
tier none
Yosy Galan, OF, 22
If Galan ever figures out the hit side of the equation, he would be quite an impactful player for the Rangers. He’s an athletic 6’4” that can get around the basepaths and send the ball way over the fence. In his at bats I watched, he was swinging maximum effort on a regular basis, looking to engage that power at every opportunity. That aggressive approach has lead to plenty of poor contact and high strikeout rates, never once under 30% at any stop so far in pro ball. He was promoted to High-A in mid-June and the walk rate skyrocketed to 35% and the walk rate plummeted from typically in that 9%-12% range down to 6%. It was a small sample, but it wouldn’t surprise me if this was an indicative trend. The more advanced pitchers are simply going to take advantage of Galan’s approach, and he will trend more and more into non-prospect status. Until the hit tool improves to at least average, he’s a Tier None player. Risk: 8, Ceiling: 5
Daniel Mateo, OF, 22
There’s normally only a narrow path to success for a player with a BB% as low as Mateo’s has been for the last few years. It’s one that needs a lot of power or an exceptionally high contact rate. Mateo has neither of those. He has significant speed that would benefit from an approach that gleaned an OBP over .280, but his hyper-aggressiveness has intensified even further this year – it’s frustrating. It’s not as simple as adding one-to-one, but he also lacks a consistent quality of contact – would being more patient also help that? Who knows. He’s frankly shown no signs of being able to be coached into having a better approach. If he ever does though - the raw tools are good enough to get to 15 HR / 20 SB with a low BA. For the hobby, it’s pretty safe to ignore Mateo - it’ll take years to reach that type of modest ceiling, and he’s already 22. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 3
Toronto Blue Jays
tier 1
None
tier 2
Enmanuel Bonilla, OF, 17
I put Bonilla into Tier 3 as I preferred to do with most International Free Agency prospects that haven’t swung a bat in a pro environment yet. Now that we have a full DSL season to consider, Bonilla showed that there’s enough there to give him that bump into Tier 2 and give a similar bump to the ceiling. He performed well, hitting .307 with three home runs and five stolen bases for a wRC+ of 127. Despite the strong batting average, that’s not really his future profile, which is more power over hit. As our Scouting Director Jake K said, Bonilla had some inconsistency in his swing, was a bit streaky, and wasn’t barreling the ball like we had hoped. Despite all of that, he still performed, which is a good sign for future success. A few more tweaks once he comes stateside in 2024 and Bonilla could easily be riding that rocket ship of hobby hype given his prospect pedigree and power potential. Risk: 9, Ceiling 8-10
tier 3
Sem Robberse, P, 21
Acquired from the Blue Jays along with Adam Kloffenstein by the Cardinals for Jordan Hicks at the trade deadline, Robberse will be in this product sporting his Toronto gear. And yes, if you are not familiar with Robberse, his first name is “Sem” with an “e” and not “Sam” as many, including those here at Prospects Live, have mistakenly written in the past. Robberse was born in Holland, so I assume that “Sem” is a name traditionally from there, but about the only thing I know of Holland are tulips and the Red Light district. And let’s just say the potential Red Light district joke I could make with his name is a canal bridge too far, for even me.
Robberse profiles as a pitchability lefty that could fill a back-end rotation role. Typically those guys end up in Tier None. However, we’re now talking about the devil magic Cardinals and they seem to innately know how to make these guys work. Especially the guys like Robberse who look to induce weak contact backed by what is typically a highly capable infield. Add in that he’s very raw given his Dutch background and you could imagine the profile ticking up more and more over the next few years. He did struggle when the Cardinals pushed him straight to Triple-A after the trade, but he was throwing really well in Double-A prior to the trade. This is probably more of a ceiling rank than a floor rank to be honest, but how often do we get to rank the Dutch in Bowman products? Not often enough, I say, so I’m going to give him the benefit of the Dutch. Risk: 4, Ceiling: 5
tier none
Peyton Williams, 1B, 22
A large, lefty swinging lumbering first baseman with decent power and a decent plate approach, but nothing special. At his best, I think our own Adam K nailed it on a daily sheet in the summertime when he opined that Williams is Luken Baker-esque. That would probably be a positive outcome for Williams as he hasn’t yet shown the ability to consistently tap into the power his body looks like it has in it. The most likely outcome is a Quad-A slugger that provides first base depth or potentially some strong side platoon work at first base and designated hitter. That’s a profile that straddles the Tier None and Tier 3 border, and given that he didn’t consistently kill the ball in his first full season of pro ball, I’ll knock him down into Tier None. Risk: 7, Ceiling: 6
Adrian Pinto, 2B, 20
Back in 2021 Pinto won MVP of the DSL - it doesn’t mean a lot in terms of projectability, but it’s a nice statement. Since then, there hasn’t been much development due to injuries. He’s been hurt (at least) three times since coming stateside and going straight to Low-A, amassing only 320 PA’s in 2 years. Last year he had a positive wRC+ with that big level jump before going down, and this year it looked like more of the same in limited time. Pinto’s plate skills and speed have always been his strengths - his hit tool still projects as a plus asset. That’s shown, to an extent, even in his time at Low-A. However, his power is pretty much what you’d expect from a 5’6” athlete. He just doesn’t have the Jose Altuve dog in him - it’s going to be just gap-to-gap power at peak. Overall, it’s tough to know where he’ll end up because of the injuries - for now, I think if he stays healthy there’s MLB role player potential, but that could miss by an order of magnitude. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 4
Yosver Zulueta, P, 25
If Zulu was in this product one year ago, he would have been in consideration for Tier 2, but the naysayers are starting to be proved right. If you were on the bandwagon, you were seeing an SP2 fire-baller that could touch 100 with a plus sweeping slider and above average curveball and changeup to complete the starter kit four-pitch mix. If you were a naysayer, you were concerned that a history of injuries and a tendency to lack command leading to high walk rates would force him to the bullpen.
This year Zulu hasn’t pitched more than 3 innings in any appearances and he’s pitched out of the bullpen in all but one game since mid-May. Even in these short appearances, he’s still running a walk rate over 15%. The Blue Jays sent him to the Complex for the second half of August as well to work on things which is rarely a good sign. Zulu still has a shot at being a high leverage, lights out reliever, which in the right situation could push him into Tier 3 territory at some point in the future, but it seems like the Tier 2 high strikeout starting pitcher dreams are a thing of the past. Risk: 4, Ceiling: 3
Washington Nationals
tier1
None
tier 2
None
tier 3
None
Tier none
Everett Cooper, 2B, 20
A 16th round prep pick by the Nationals in the 2022 MLB Draft, Cooper wasn’t on the radar of many and wasn’t ranked in our Top 600 prospects for the draft. He crushed the 2023 Complex league on the surface level stats with a 140 wRC+ driven by a .373 batting average with 6 stolen bases and an 11.5% strikeout rate in a super small sample of 28 games. However, looking just slightly deeper and you’ll see that an unsustainable .431 BABIP, a ground ball rate over 63%, and zero home runs. The lack of pedigree, the poor ground ball rate, and the high luck factor have me skeptical. Given the lack of video on Cooper, it’s someone I can’t push into even Tier 3 until I get to see how real or not this is. For now, I’m going to tentatively call it “not real” and check back in with the 2024 season. Risk: 9, Ceiling: 4-6
Edwin Solano, SS, 17
Along with Andy Acevedo, the Nationals top International Free Agency signing in 2023. Like most hitters in the DSL, he struggled with any spin-based pitches in my looks and had a ton of weak contact which led to poor ground ball rates approaching 50%. He kept his strikeout rate under 30% which wasn’t bad considering some of the other prospects in this product and he was competing in all of his at bats I watched, so not surprising to see that. Unfortunately, he was rarely putting the ball into play successfully as he ended with a .117 batting average and zero home runs. Just three stolen bases as well portends a lack of floor from the speed department - overall a long way to go for Solano to reach any relevance. Risk: 10, Ceiling: 4-6
Andy Acevedo, OF, 17
Tied for the top Nationals bonus with fellow Bowman Chrome Nationals teammate Edwin Solano in the 2023 International Free Agency class at $1.2M. Solano looks to be a top of the lineup speed guy at the moment, but that may become an issue if he fills out more and loses some of that speed. He’s got enough length where that may not come to fruition which hopefully means he can stick in center field and not get too much pressure on the bat if he has to move to a corner. In my video looks, he was not at all interested in swinging the bat, often going full plate appearances without taking the bat off of his shoulder. His overall performance in the DSL this year was very poor outside of the high amount of stolen bases. He was regularly looking to steal the second he was on the base paths. A strikeout rate of over 32% was highly driven by his passivity at the plate. The pre-season evaluations had me interested in Acevedo, but at this point I’m out even if I feel like I’m the low man on him. Risk: 10, Ceiling: 3-5
Elian Soto, OF/1B, 17
The prospect pedigree, or more realistically, the name value alone should get Soto into Tier 3 as he is the younger brother of former Nationals and current Padres MLB superstar Juan Soto. However, he wasn’t a big bonus signing, didn’t crack the top 50 International Free Agent prospect lists, and performed poorly in his first DSL season. I saw a fair bit of weak contact in my video looks and the statline shows similar offensive concerns. He was approaching a 40% strikeout rate and a 50% ground ball rate while hitting below the Mendoza line. This also came with no home runs and no stolen bases. As the meme goes, Not Great Bob! We’ve seen it before with the likes of younger brothers in recent Bowman products that they will often be sought after regardless of skills and performance, and my guess is that this will happen here with Soto. I would recommend against it in this case. Risk: 10, Ceiling: 2-4
Yoander Rivero, SS, 21
There’s not much to grasp onto when it comes to Rivero as a prospect of interest. He’s a bit undersized at 5’9”, has only made it up to High-A after entering the Nationals system in 2019, and has no power whatsoever to speak of. Add in that he runs average to poor strikeout rates, doesn’t run enough, hasn’t hit over .222 in any stop the past two years, and does not have any prospect pedigree to fall back upon. At this point he’s trending towards org depth with no hobby interest. Risk: 9, Ceiling: 2
And there it is baseball card collectors. We hope you enjoy 2023 Bowman Chrome and find some useful nuggets in our thoughts on the prospects in the checklist.