Welcome to the new and improved Bowman preview! With the recent addition of Max Arterburn to the Prospects Live staff, he and Joe Lowry combined forces to create the 2023 Bowman product preview. You’ll still find the Tiered ranking system that Joe has used in the past for those familiar with his Bowman articles, and you’ll still find the Risk and Ceiling grades that Max has used in the past for those familiar with his Bowman articles. We’ve also chosen to go with the format of a team by team flow as that is more conducive to team collectors and break participants.
As mentioned above, we are classifying each prospect in three ways - a Tier ranking, a Risk grade, and a Ceiling grade, all within the context of the baseball card collecting hobby.
Tier Ranks
Tier 1 - Cream of the crop. Combination of high-end Hit and Power tools that won’t end up as full-time designated hitters. Power/Speed combo players. Elite SP 1 pitchers (very rare). Potential for being perennial All-Stars and award winners.
Tier 2 - Bats that may lack in a certain area such as top-end power, three true outcomes players with huge power, great real life/fantasy players, but not hobby-elite, or tantalizing raw talents. High-end SP 2 pitchers with additional positive factors such as team, arsenal, pedigree, etc.
Tier 3 - May have some hobby interest due to a single factor such as prospect pedigree, team interest, general hobby hype, an interesting carrying tool, etc.
Tier None - The likelihood of widespread short-term hobby interest, and most likely long-term as well, is close to none. Plenty of pitchers, catchers, role players, hit-tool-only bats, Quad-A power bats, defense-first players, etc. to be found here. Hobby lottery tickets where the odds are stacked against you.
*Catchers and Pitchers are often knocked down a tier just due to their position.
Risk and Ceiling Grades
We also assigned Risk and Ceiling to each player to provide a quick glimpse into each player.
Risk is a general measure of how far a player has advanced toward making an impact in the majors. So anyone at the Complex level, by rule, is almost always a 9 or 10 risk. On the flip side, a player at the AAA level is most likely a 1-3 level of risk.
Ceiling is just how significant the player has the potential of being for the hobby. I’ll provide the definition of a 5, and you, reader, can interpret everything from that: a maximum realistic projection of an MLB regular with 10-15 HR power, .260 average, and one other element of interest (team context, excellent speed, etc).
A few notes on DSL players. With them and a few others, there is a range of Ceiling listed because the variance is simply too great to peg down into a single number. Unless there’s a callout in the writeup or their Tier is different, the DSL players fit into the very bottom of Tier 3.
arizona diamondbacks
Tier 1
Druw Jones, OF, 19
The son of MLB great Andruw Jones, Druw is one of the most dynamic players from the 2022 MLB Draft. He checks every box with plus or better ratings on the five-tool checklist. Double plus speed highlights the profile. He’ll have no problem sticking in center field as he’s already making highlight reel plays early in his pro career - no surprise given his genes. He did suffer a shoulder injury that required surgery and didn’t give us any 2022 tape to digest, but the fact that he’s back and playing for the Dbacks Single-A squad in 2023 is enough for me to quell any concerns I might have had prior to the season kicking off.
There isn’t much to be concerned about with Jones - the floor is so high with his speed and defense. Our own Grant Carver saw Jones and noted some work to be done in how he flies open, but this is the type of stuff you don’t sweat right now. If both the hit and power continue to develop as expected, he’s a future elite player. If one of these two doesn’t come along as anticipated, there’s still a really, really good player. The headliner in this product, he’s a no doubt Tier 1 player. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 10
tier 2
Deyvison De Los Santos, 3B, 19
A 19 YO that can do any damage at AA is impressive regardless of how limited the profile. That’s what stands out the most to me. On the positive side, De Los Santos posted top-of-the-scale exit velocity that belies his double plus raw power, and got to most of it in-game. His 22 HR in stateside ball in 2022 were the most of any teen. He even totaled a .306 BA to go with it. That is something the hobby will never ignore, and the fact that some of the work was done at advanced levels is a major positive. But his game also has two major negatives. The first is that he’s not good at all defensively. It’s most likely that he’s destined to be a DH, as he hasn’t yet shown an ability to pick up 1B. Second is that he has such a long way to go with plate discipline. It’s normal for someone of his age to be rough, but he is ROUGH. He chases too much, he doesn’t make enough contact in the zone, and he doesn’t work counts.
It’s likely his success last year was just because he hit the ball so hard with such frequency. It got exposed more at each level - it’s something that will absolutely need to improve, and he hasn’t shown it yet. He’s been all performance so far with not much under the hood to support that it will continue. But he could. For someone who’s reached AA, he carries more risk than maybe any other prospect of significance. It’s a sky high power ceiling that we can already see, and that’s why he’s squarely in Tier 2. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 8
Tier 3
Ruben Santana, 3B, 18
Game power hasn’t shown up yet, but it looks to be his carrying tool in an intriguing arsenal of five. He’s already a strong, big bodied 3B who moves well at the position, and he makes good swing decisions. That said, he does make weak contact and miss too much - it’s possible he needs to change his swing path to be more line-drive oriented. It makes his .316/.436/.436 line look better than he really is at present. Still, he has more polish than many of the DSL players in this product and it’s fair to project significantly more power - how much will determine how quickly he’ll move through the system. Due to the wider array of tools and small amount of polish, he’s a hair above the pack of DSL players – in the middle of Tier 3. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 6-8
tier none
Tim Tawa , 2B/OF, 24
After a strong start to the season in High-A with plus walk and strikeout rates, Tawa struggled after his promotion to Double-A. One thing that remained consistent across the two levels was a 50%+ ground ball rate which is not good. He tries to work counts to get to his pull-side power, and that can lead to poor pitches to hit, likely driving some of that poor ground ball rate.
Tawa has plus speed, even if there is still work to be done to translate that to above average stolen base totals. He has enough defensive abilities to play infield or outfield. There is double-digit pop and an OBP-focused approach, but he’s most likely a utility piece at the MLB level that doesn’t have a ton of hobby ceiling. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 4
Dominic Canzone, OF, 25
Canzone spent most of 2022 in Triple-A putting up decent numbers with a .284/.349/.489 triple slash, 16 home runs, and 14 stolen bases. He also had plus 90th percentile exit velocities and wOBA along with a really nice 20% K rate. However, his walk rate dropped into below average territory at under 8% given his aggressive approach. These stats were from the PCL as well, with his home ballpark being in Reno, which is relatively favorable for hitters. Not a great defender, he’s competent enough that he should be able to play left field without an issue and right field if needed.
Canzone has the floor of a strong side platoon outfield with average hit and power tools. The ceiling is an everyday player hitting .260-ish with 20 home runs and a few chip-in steals, but that’s still not enough to move the needle much beyond Tier 3. Given all the Diamondbacks’ roadblocks in the outfield, I’ll put Canzone in Tier None as his floor feels like a more likely outcome than his ceiling, but I wouldn’t hate taking a very small hobby gamble with him. Risk: 2 Ceiling: 4
Abdias De La Cruz, SS, 18
Is it fair to ignore a sub-.200 average when the expectation was that the player would take 2+ years to be more than a bag of projection? I think so. He has a 6’2” frame from which to build power, and he does look like a good defender on the left side of the infield (SS for now). Under the hood, he also showed a knack for making good swing decisions, even if the results weren’t good. If his body develops as hoped, it’s easy to see a hobby-friendly ballplayer – more so than any of the other DSL strugglers in this product. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 5-7
Christian Cerda, C, 20
Cerda has shown exceptional plate skills in the DSL (2021) and Complex (2022) levels with high teens walk and strikeout rates. He doesn’t chase at all, but it also comes with below average zone swing rates. There isn’t much pop as he only hit two home runs in 35 games in 2022. I did see him struggle with the defensive side of the equation, but he was also trying to catch some wild, raw pitchers, so I won’t ding him much for it.
With Cerda getting the catcher penalty and not exhibiting any present power, he’s an easy Tier None ranking. With his plate approach, there is a possibility for more offensive impact, but it has to be a significant jump in power to draw any hobby interest. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 2
Atlanta Braves
tier 1
None
tier 2
Ambioris Tavarez, SS , 19
2021 International Free Agency signing of the Braves out of the Dominican Republic for $1.5M, the first $1M+ signing they had since the International Signing Shenanigans that led to the GM getting excommunicated and the team having their International Pool severely restricted.
Tavarez was placed on the inactive list this past June and did not get any game action until August, so his 2022 sample is a super small 17 games. He also did not play at all in 2021 after signing. I’ve got it on good authority that he had Thoracic Outlet Syndrome surgery, but I can’t source it reliably anywhere online. In his Complex games, we saw a ton of swing and miss and aggression with a huge BABIP to keep his top-line stats looking decent. He had a strikeout rate of over 40% and a walk rate less than 5%, but when he did get the bat on the ball, it was impactful with double plus 90th percentile exit velocity rankings. Watching his swing, it was very geared towards launch angle lift, so I’m not surprised with his approach and EV numbers.
Prospect pedigree, a highly collectible team, and a future plus power infielder are all music to the hobby’s ears. The lack of reps and the super raw plate approach are notes of caution. However, his ceiling is very high and after hearing some inside information, I’m going to take a leap of faith here and take the extreme risk and tier ranking by pushing him into Tier 2. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 8
tier 3
Justyn-Henry Malloy, 3B/OF, 23
6th round pick in the 2021 MLB Draft out of Georgia Tech and traded this past off-season to the Tigers with Jake Higginbotham for reliever Joe Jimenez.
To get it out of the way off the top, JHM’s defense is one of his biggest question marks. The Braves transitioned him to the outfield from third base after his promotion to Double-A last year, but the Tigers have been playing him back at third base in 2023. If he ends up in left field, the pressure on his bat to be the carrying tool is going to be a lot higher than if he can stick at third base, which is unlikely. Speaking of the bat, his offensive profile really blossomed in 2022 with a patient, OBP-geared approach. He rarely chases, has plus to double plus walk rates, and keeps his strikeout rates in the acceptable range in the low 20’s percentages. He hit 17 home runs with just 5 chip-in steals across three levels in 2022.
Malloy’s most likely outcome is probably a four corners (3B/1B/LF/RF) bench bat, but on a Tigers team desperate for talent on and off the field (JHM by all accounts is a great guy with a strong team-first mentality), I could easily see him finding a starting role in the short term. Typically this profile lands in Tier None, but he’s got just enough power, the arrow on his development is trending up, and there’s enough of a positive x-factor with his personality that I’ll slide him into my Tier 3. Risk: 2 Ceiling: 5
tier none
None
Baltimore Orioles
tier 1
None
tier 2
Max Wagner, 3B, 21
Taken with the 66th overall pick in the 2022 Draft, Wagner was an emergent talent at Clemson, hitting 27 HR, good for third in all of NCAA D1. Anyone with a rising profile like this is certainly going to catch the eye of the hobby, but let me try to give a reality check. Power is certainly part of his game, but his body is fully developed and it’s not likely to increase to be more than the above average tool that it is now. He’s also not dynamic with his power - it’s mostly to his pull side, but that’s OK because he’s a fairly complete hitter. He’s patient, gets on base, and quality of contact is not an issue. It’s really just a small qualm that he’s rough around the edges on breaking pitches, as that’s a skill that can be gleaned from experience, and he totaled less than 300 collegiate ABs. He’s just an average defender at 3B, but his arm is a plus asset that should keep him there. He’s essentially in the same mold as many of the other Orioles infield prospects, and they all have been fairly good for the hobby. Expect the same from Wagner. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 7
tier 3
Braylin Tavera, OF, 18
Tavera was a $1.7 MM-bonus 2022 J15 signing. Counter to many DSL bats, he was very passive - he allowed far too many balls to pass through the zone and only put the ball into play in a little more than half his PAs (25.4 K%, 19.5% BB). Amateur scouting tells us that Tavera could be a 5-tool player in the future. Because of that and the fact he was well above the Mendoza line, I’ll be generous and not lump him in with the DSL strugglers, but it’s fair to value him amongst them. There’s nothing he did in the DSL to either confirm or discount the future 5-Tool profile, but he does have a 6’2” frame to grow into and the CF defense is there already. He’s a mystery box, but an interesting one for the hobby. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 6-8
Leandro Arias, SS, 18
Arias had a better year than his DSL teammate Tavera, and is equally as projectable at a premium position. Take a look at his underlying numbers, not the .217/.344/.306 on the surface. His plate discipline was solidly above average already (his 14.2 BB% was not due to passivity), and with maturity, it’s easy to see another tooled-up Orioles prospect. Both Arias and Tavera are in the primordial stages of their careers, and it’s fair to expect growth to be slow. It’ll be a few years before we know if they’ll boom. I would predict Arias to be better in 2023 than Tavera, so keep an eye out at the Complex. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 6-8
tier none
Frederick Bencosme, SS, 20
2020 International Free Agency signing for a paltry $10K as an older signing at 18 years old.
Bencosme went from the DSL in 2021 to a quick two games at the Complex to start 2022, 59 games at Single-A, and then finished up the season with 12 games at High-A. Now at a more age-appropriate level, he’s starting back in High-A for 2023. Focusing on the largest sample, Single-A in 2022, Bencosme ran good walk rates (11%) with really low strikeout rates (12%) while hitting .336 and getting on base at a .410 clip. He only popped 3 home runs and stole 8 bases.
Watching video of Bencosme, you can see why he is considered a hit-over-power infielder. Almost always getting the bat to the ball, but rarely with significant impact. A slight frame doesn’t really speak to a ton of future growth that may lead to more power, so while the hit tool looks to be plus, everything else looks to be average with the power perhaps even less than that. For the hobby, there won’t be much interest, even if he finds his way to a starting role. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 4
Mishael Deson, OF, 20
When we say “he’s stopped hitting” it usually just means he’s not performing well as a hitter anymore. That’s true for Deson, but there’s also a degree of literal meaning to that with the passivity he showed at Low-A in 2022. He wasn’t bad with swing-and-miss, but still struck out in almost 30% of his ABs. He’s a bat-first prospect who needs to re-tune his approach so he can get to some of his above average raw power. He doesn’t have significant defensive value or speed, so it’ll be important for these improvements to come from the offensive side. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 4
Adam Crampton, INF, 22
The Taiwan native was taken in the 9th Round of the 2022 Draft after three years at Stanford. It’s a safe dart throw for the Orioles. He’ll provide minor-league infield depth for several years with the hope that his offense develops enough to be a bench-utility player at the major league level. He’s good at putting bat to ball but it’s never been for much impact, and it’s fair to question whether it will translate at all with a wood bat. Power and speed are not a part of his offensive skillset at all. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 1
Boston Red Sox
tier 1
None
tier 2
Roman Anthony, OF, 18
Anthony was the third player the Red Sox took in the 2022 Draft, but it’s easy to say he has the highest hobby ceiling. Anthony’s plus power potential was well established as an amateur, and he was a riser entering the Draft due to his emergence as a more complete hitter. Indeed, the Red Sox felt that way too, sending him to Low-A to finish the 2022 season, where he’ll start 2023. Anthony has a 6’3” frame that’s already strong but still has room to grow – essentially he’s the ideal of a slugging corner OF-type. How far he goes is dependent on how well his hit tool develops - there’s not a lot of efficiency to his swings. Though in his brief debut he made an elite level of zone contact and recorded plus exit velocity as expected, those two things didn’t coincide with each other enough. He also hit the ball on the ground on over 60% of his batted balls, which makes his power really hard to access. There’s a long way to go, but I don’t think as Anthony develops he’ll ever look like he’s truly struggling - once he makes a leap, expect it to stick. How much of a leap should we expect? That’s in the eye of the beholder - a Red Sox fan beholder, so expect him to be pretty expensive from the jump. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 8
tier 3
Freili Encarnacion, SS, 18
The first of two Red Sox 2022 J15’s in this set, Encarnacion has some intriguing hobby potential. His below-average contact and chase rates at present can simply be chalked up to being raw as a hitter. Even his powerful performance in the DSL was merely average. But he has a nice broad-shouldered frame to work from that, with development, could produce plus power. He’s very likely a 3B in the future, but that won’t matter too much if everything comes together. Long way to go, almost all projection, but could be a deep, deep sleeper in this product. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 6-8
tier none
Brandon Walter, P, 26
Walter spent the majority of 2022 in Double-A but had a brief visit to Triple-A to end 2022 and is starting there in 2023. His Double-A numbers were really good with a K/9 over 12, a BB/9 significantly under 1, and an ERA, FIP, and xFIP all under 3. Elite Chase and double plus CSW data rankings are heavily driven by his slider and arm slot. The change-up and fastball complete the arsenal as above-average pitches.
Walter is likely going to see time at the MLB level this year. The question is if the Red Sox decide to push him to the bullpen to get more effective fastball velocity or keep him in a starting role. As a starter, he’s a backend rotation guy that provides a solid floor. Given the Red Sox's collectability and the chance for a flashy debut, he can be thought of as a short-term Tier 3 pitcher. But long term, I don’t think there’s enough here to consistently be a mid-rotation arm and deserve that Tier 3 ranking. Risk: 2 Ceiling: 3
Luis Ravelo, SS, 19
He has a nice 6’1” from to build from, but there’s nothing to indicate he’ll be able use it to access significant power, tallying just 12 XBH in 81 games as a pro in the last two years. It’s more likely he remains a glove first asset as he matures - that’s what had him promoted to Low-A to finish the 2022 season. He’s not a particularly polished hitter and he’s currently below-average at making contact. Simply put, both his physical and in-game progression need to go perfectly to be a hobby-significant prospect. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 4
Fraymi De Leon, SS, 18
De Leon was a significant bonus 2022 J15 ($1.1 MM), and performed quite poorly in the DSL. Power was never an expectation at this stage of development for De Leon, but his speed and potential plus defense at SS was evident. Still, it’s not a strong offensive profile, nor should it be seen as such with future development. Those two tools we care the least about for the hobby will carry him, but everything else will be a bonus if it gets to fringe-average. His hobby potential is quite limited, even at 18. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 3-5
Juan Chacon, OF, 20
Chacon is what a DSL-struggler looks like in a few years if the struggles continue. Signed for a healthy 900k in the 2019 J2 period, Chacon was touted for having a potential 5-Tool profile. He did play well at the DSL in 2021, but was a year older than the new crop due to the lost 2020 season. His time was spent mostly in the Complex in 2022 and showed himself to still just be a bag of projection with no refinement to his game. He has a frame for power, and heading into a full season of Low-A that’s his easiest path to relevance. It’s highly unlikely to happen. This is a name to avoid until he proves otherwise. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 4
Lyonell James, 3B, 20
James played 34 games at the Complex for the Red Sox and put up a high batting average and OBP, but barely took the bat off of his shoulder. He slashed .340/.442/.430 with zero home runs and 2 stolen bases. His walk rate was plus at 14.2% and his strikeout rate was double plus, equaling his walk rate at 14.2%. As alluded to, his zone swing rate was fringe. Likewise rating fringe was his 90th percentile exit velocity.
James has some length to him at 6’2”, so you can hope that he adds muscle to his frame and adds some power, any power, to his game. Until then, he looks like an infield utility hit only player. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 2
Blake Loubier, P, 22
If you don’t have anything nice to say…stick to basic facts. Loubier was drafted in the 13th round back in 2019 and pitched as a reliever in Single-A in 2022, but was released by the Red Sox in mid-March. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 1
Chicago Cubs
tier 1
None
tier 2
Matt Mervis, 1B, 25
Most of us know the name so most of this writeup is throwing cold water, but trust me, I don’t hate Mr. Mash. The hobby really loathes older prospects, and it’s also hard to gain traction in the hobby with no prospect pedigree. As a senior-sign UDFA from the shortened 2020 Draft period, it was always going to be tough to gain favor in the hobby. He’s also positionally limited to 1B, and his defense there is suspect. Other than those things, Mervis had a bigger statistical breakout than anyone in 2022. He was the only player with 35+ HR and a BA over .300, and did so with a K% that got better in each stop on his way through AAA. He does struggle with well-placed velocity, and he was below-average at chase.
Because of those things, his floor is still that of a Quad-A player. Since it’s imminent, there’s also the question of where he plays in the context of the big-leagues - it’s easy to just think that 1B defense doesn’t matter, but bringing in Eric Hosmer says it does to the Cubs. It doesn’t matter what you think about Mervis - it’s clear the Cubs didn’t really consider him as an option to open with the big club this year. Considering he’s already 25, that matters. For him to get an opportunity it’ll take an injury to specific players - he’s not truly the next man up, and he’s not on the 40-man roster. He’ll very obviously still be good for the hobby if he proves himself to be a 30 HR bat in the majors, but if it starts at age-26, the ceiling isn’t as immense as his 2022 MiLB season dictates. Risk: 3 Ceiling: 7
Jackson Ferris, P, 19
Taken in the 2nd Round and signed for 1st Round money, Ferris’ fastball is a fantastic plus pitch already - it’s a four-seamer that’s topped out at 98 with great ride and generates plenty of swing and miss. He compliments it with a curve that with more consistency, could grade out equally as well. In the hobby - that’s enough of a building block to latch onto and generate enormous interest for the hobby in a release. But there’s more. He’s also a lean 6’5” that we can all dream can handle a heavy workload with strength and maturity.
Nobody’s going to doubt the high-end Ferris’ outcome as a #2 SP, but he has a long way to go to get there. He had consistency issues with his curve as a senior that bumped him down a few spots to *only* the #3 lefty prep in the class. His third pitch, a change, has potential but needs to develop to play well in the pro ranks. That’s not enough for Cubs fans to shy away from him in any way. I’d expect more hobby interest in him at release than we saw in Cade Horton in the 2022 Bowman Draft product. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 8
tier 3
Derniche Valdez, SS, 17
2023 International Free Agency signing of the Cubs out of the Dominican Republic for $2.7M.
Just like fellow 2023 signing Enmanuel Bonilla, the video available is mostly batting practice and defensive practice reps, leaving no conclusions to be drawn from it. The reports are positive on both the defensive side as well as the offensive side of the ball. It seems like he’s more hit over power and that he should be able to stick at shortstop, increasing his baseball value.
Valdez was typically in that 5 to 15 range in 2023 International Free Agent rankings and got included as one of the Sleepers in the Prospects Live Scouting Handbook. Without much more to go on beyond the above, I’ll tag him as a Tier 3 ranking with the full on risk ranking. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 6-8
Moises Ballesteros, C, 19
Excepting Daniel Susac who’s at a different stage of development, Ballesteros is the top “catcher” in this product. Let’s start with the negative because it's pretty simple. Ballesteros has a very bad body that will likely only play at C/1B. He’s not a great natural defender at either position, so there’s a large chance he ends up as a DH-only. As you may guess, he’s also quite slow on the base paths. Everything else looks like it’s on a great developmental path. He’s a patient hitter who’s excellent at making swing decisions already and he posted excellent exit velocity in the Complex / Low-A. As he matures further as a hitter it’s fair to expect his middling batting average to increase a hair but his foot speed will hurt his BABIP. His power is clearly at least plus raw, and he gets to most of it in-game. It’s nice to see from such a young hitter.
If the Cubs decide to simply scrap him as a catcher and work with him as a 1B/DH, this could be a quick riser through the system. He’s one to watch for sure, and just how well he’s able to maintain his body will determine whether he can get close to his ceiling as a .360 OBP / 30 HR bat. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 7
Ben Brown, P, 23
33rd round pick (which isn’t even close to existing anymore) of the Phillies in the 2017 MLB Draft out of the New York prep ranks and traded to the Cubs at the 2022 trade deadline for David Robertson.
Brown is 6’6” with an over the top arm slot that fills up the zone, generates a ton of whiffs and called strikes, and gets a lot of weak contact on his breakers. His fastball sits in the mid to high 90’s and often keeps it up in the zone, allowing both his slider and curve ball to play off of it effectively. The fastball and slider are both plus pitches with the curve ball not far behind. There’s a change-up and a splitter that he doesn’t use but I’ve heard it discussed as something he’s had and worked on in the past.
Brown has a solid high-leverage bullpen floor, but he’s taken major steps in the past year toward potentially being a mid-rotation arm. If he finds an effective fourth pitch, that will go from “potentially” to “certainly”, given the strength of his present arsenal. There’s Tier 2 potential here and my looks certainly had me leaning that way, but I’ll keep him in Tier 3 until we see him repeat his newfound success after logging over 60 innings for the first time in his pro career in 2022. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 6
Pedro Ramirez, INF, 19
Ramirez has always had a precocious feel for hitting. He’s good at not chasing, makes an excellent amount of contact, and finds pitches in the zone to drive. There’s nothing to indicate that can’t continue as he moves forward with his development. There’s some projection remaining in his body, especially his upper half – he’s a short-stature infielder through-and-through. Defense is a strong suit. His exact position isn’t set in stone but it’s another mark in the positive. His speed is at least above average, and with his body type, it should stay that way, leading to double-digit steals. Notice how I’ve heaped on the positives and haven’t mentioned power? Yeah…he…doesn’t have much. If he pans out as expected and makes it as an MLB regular, he’s a strong enough hitter that he could find enough barrels to touch double digits, but that’s about it.
Ramirez is a Tier 3 name due to this limited ceiling, including a hobby boost due to being a Cub. If he keeps showing out as he advances levels, he can absolutely get higher for the hobby, but for now, it’s too cloudy. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 6
Jefferson Rojas, 2B, 18
He’s got a smallish frame with limited projection, but that’s the only significant ding we can put on Rojas after he slashed .303/.391/.407 in the DSL. The $1MM 2022 J15 signer showed an ability to get to some power in game and hit the ball hard with frequency. His swing is clearly geared for contact, and that plays well into his speed, which is presently an asset. He did chase too much, but it’s easy to chalk that up to being 17. Although he played mostly 2B he’s not locked in there positionally, so versatility is potentially a feather in his cap as well. With Rojas, it’s not so much about how his body matures, but how far his skills as a hitter can develop with experience. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 5-7
tier none
None
Chicago White Sox
tier 1
None
tier 2
None
tier 3
None
tier none
Wilber Sanchez, 2B/SS, 21
Sanchez is a middle infield defense and speed profile with no pop and a hit tool that has trended mostly negative since making it to Single-A in 2021. Even with plus walk rates in a full season of Single-A ball, he failed to make it to a .300+ OBP due to a .161 batting average.
Sanchez was basically a non-prospect when signed, built a little bit of buzz in DSL and rookie ball action, and has now turned back into a non-prospect after not providing any offensive impact in 2022. He’s org depth more than anything else at this point. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 2
Cincinnati Reds
TIER 1
Cam Collier, 18, 3B
The son of former longtime MLB player Lou Collier, Cam is one of my favorite players in this product. He has the potential to be a plus hit, plus power, plus defender at third base. The intangibles are also plus in my opinion - I’ve watched interviews where he comes across as humble and has a good head on his shoulders. He didn’t flinch away from any challenge, jumping into facing much tougher competition by heading to junior college a year early and going to play in the Cape Cod league as a 17 year old. There are some concerns - he won’t be stealing many bases, and given his frame, there are some questions if he will maintain the agility to stick at third base even with a plus arm.
As I said, I’m all in on Collier. He’s a future perennial All-Star, and if he remains with the Reds, there’s the added power boost that easily drives his hobby juice into that Tier 1 territory. If he reaches his ceiling, we’re looking at a .300 hitter with 35+ bombs in Great American Smallpark. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 9
tier 2
Carlos Jorge, 19, SS
A six-figure signing from the 2021 J15 class, Jorge has proven to be worth every penny. He’s shown an innate knack for putting barrel to the ball. It’s all due to his physique. Doug Martin has been retired from the NFL for 5 years now, it’s time for someone else to carry the Muscle Hamster moniker - why not Jorge? He’s at most 5’10”, and this off-season he appears to have added another 10 lbs to his already impressive upper body. He looks like a bodybuilder.
It translates to the field in his ability to drive the ball to the opposite field with regularity for now. As he matures as a hitter he’s likely to become a true all-fields gap-to gap type of power, which is a good positional fit for 2B. He’s a good-not-great runner, but he’s been aggressive on the base paths and was 27/31 on SB at the Complex. The fact that he slugged .529 at the Complex is a bit of a lie in his case - being physically mature at that level is a major advantage. Still, he showed a great ability to not chase and was good at making contact in the zone. So in the future, that makes his carrying tool figure to be his hit, not power. Anyone with his physique and a clue how to translate it to baseball will have some power though, and there’s every reason to think he'll continue to get to it.
So for the hobby, he’s interesting on the surface based on his performance in the Complex, and interesting underneath for different reasons. It all has to come together into a well-blended confluence of tools, but it’s a nice ceiling. Risk: 8 Ceilng: 8
Tier 3
Hector Rodriguez, OF, 19
Acquired by the Reds from the Mets in the Tyler Naquin trade, Rodriguez was one of the best performers in the Complex last year. In total, he had a ridiculous 23 XBH in 49 games, just an elite level of meaningful contact. In the grander scheme, he didn’t post elite exit velocity - it’s not truly a predictor of future power, but as his body matures he could be a low-double digits HR-type with regularity. He was too busy finding the barrel to strike out (10.2%) or walk (6.1%) much in his 2022 action, but he chased everything. That will need to get cleaned up as he faces more advanced pitching. It’s not concerning for now - we have to see a problem before we know how he will react to it. It also makes it tough to truly grade his hit tool. His defense is a utility profile, and he sees most of his time in CF at present. He’s an above-average runner which should continue with maturity. Mostly he figures to be a sum-of-the parts type with potential plus hit, and it’s possible he just continues to perform and move up, rinse and repeat. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 7
Ariel Almonte, OF, 19
A $1.85 MM signee in 2021 J15 period, Almonte has been solid as a pro. But as anyone who’s yet to best a 25 K% or a 29 SwStr% in two years, a ton of risk remains. He’s very raw as a hitter - whether he truly works counts well or is just passive and has a knack for finding pitches to barrel is a fair question. Either way the .286/.390/.493 slash from 2022 is deceptive, and it’s fair to expect the average to fall off until he can prove he’s able to pick up spin. On the upside, Almonte posted top-of-the-scale exit velocities. That’s why he’s squarely in Tier 3. Almonte also has an ideal 6`4” frame built for easy power as shown by that .207 ISO, and he’s already added a bit of mass to it. That physical maturity and his in-game ability to get on base made him an easy choice to begin the year at Low-A.
Looking to the future, it really all comes down to how his hit tool pans out. If it ends up strong enough, he’ll be a middle-of-the-order corner OF. This is a sleeper I’d be interested in taking a chance on – his hobby ceiling is clearly evident. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 7
tier none
None
Cleveland Guardians
tier 1
None
tier 2
None
tier 3
None
tier none
Angel Genao, INF, 19
Genao has a bag of projected 50 grade tools, except power. Of course, that’s what we care most about for the hobby so he’s not a great name for this release. Aside from that his results have been very good, reaching Single-A in his age 18 season. His current injury (meniscus) gives me qualms about saying this, but he could move through the system quickly due to his ability to play all over the infield, if his feel to hit continues to prove advanced. With added strength, he could get to some HR pop, but his frame is small so double digits aren’t likely. It’s a long road ahead but predicting him as a MLB utility bat is a realistic ceiling. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 4
Jorge Burgos, OF, 21
Burgos spent all of 2022 in Single-A where he put up solid numbers as a hit/speed/defense outfield type. He slashed .278/.368/.384 with 6 home runs and 6 stolen bases. He has plus walk (12%) and strikeout (19%) rates. His power is more doubles than home run-focused and he’s putting the ball on the ground a bit too much at 47%.
Burgos looks like a solid prospect, but nothing jumps off the page stat-wise or in video looks. He looks like a 4th outfielder/strong-side platoon bat with perhaps some everyday possibilities given Cleveland’s strength in developing these profiles. Good for baseball, but not enough power or speed at the moment to get the hobby juices flowing. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 3
Dayan Frias, INF, 20
He’s essentially the middle of what org-mate Angel Genao could be in a few years. Frias had a great DSL season in 2019. But since then he’s proven to lack enough projection to expect any of his tools to end up as average. Frias is a high-effort player that should play well as a utility-bench role should he continue to develop at a moderate pace. But for the hobby, there’s simply nothing to get excited about. There’s no tool on which to hang his hat for collectors to latch onto. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 3
Colorado Rockies
tier 1
None
tier 2
None
tier 3
Dyan Jorge, SS, 20
The Cuban was signed in 2022 for a huge $2.8 MM bonus, and his performance in the DSL was more than adequate. But being old for the DSL translates to his performance meaning much less. Of course, he showed excellent zone contact and chase rate and put out solid exit velocity - he’s 2 years older in a league where most of his teammates can’t grow full beards. Furthermore, we shouldn’t have any faith in the Rockies to push him. More than likely he’ll spend the entirety of 2023 at a single level no matter how good he is - it’s simply the organization’s MO.
Anyhow, Jorge has a very thin 6’2” frame that has plenty of room to fill out and get to double-digit HR power. Couple that with the plate skills mentioned above and he’s definitely a name worth taking a flyer on in this product. But if he’s treated as a Top 20 name price-wise as his bonus and good performance might dictate, I’m out. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 6-8
tier none
Juan Brito, 2B, 21
2018 International Free Agency signing of the Rockies that was traded during this past off-season to the Guardians for Nolan Jones.
Brito spent all of 2022 at Single-A playing in the relatively hitter-friendly confines of the California League. He had plus walk (16%) and strikeout (14%) rates, putting together the rare more walks than strikeouts stat-line. He stole 17 bases and added a bit of a surprising 11 home runs, but that is partially league context and partially putting the bat on the ball so much.
Brito is looking like a hit over power utility/middle infield type, which Cleveland is stocked full of. At this point, I would rather have Brito than Nolan Jones, but that isn’t saying much unless you are into Quad-A sluggers. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 5
Detroit Tigers
tier 1
None
tier 2
Wilmer Flores, P, 22
It’s always going to be weird to say Wilmer Flores, brother of Wilmer Flores, but this one carries a similar stock that his brother did as a prospect, albeit as pitcher. He went undrafted in the 5-Round 2020 Draft, and to say his status has risen since then is an understatement. Flores followed a 2021 season that showed flashes of great stuff with an outstanding 2022 season that earned him the Tigers’ minor league Pitcher of the Year honors.
He has a big, mature 6`4” frame that’s the prototype of a MLB starting pitcher. His primary pitch is a fastball that’s touched 98 and has shape that works well in the upper part of the strike zone. He pairs that with a high-80s variably-shaped (probably on purpose) cutter and a high-70’s curve that could end up as a true out pitch. If he’s able to maximize his curve’s effectiveness, his ceiling as a mid-rotation SP will come into clearer focus. That said there are a few concerns. His delivery isn’t free of effort - that led to his fastball velocity dipping later in the season. His command was good overall, but on a start-to-start basis his breaking pitches could be off, leading to getting lit up on occasion. There’s every indication that he’s still improving though, so I’m high on his potential to get close to his ceiling. For the hobby, that’s a very collectible pitcher. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 7
tier 3
Peyton Graham, SS, 22
After the draft, Graham put together roughly a league average 27 games at the end of the Single-A season in the Florida State League. A decent hitting line but he only had one home run. In 2022 at the University of Oklahoma, he had a breakout season hitting .335 with 20 home runs and 34 stolen bases.
He’s skinny and very thin with not any bulk to be found at the moment. He could stick at short, but he likely ends up at third base if he does bulk up. There’s streakiness and swing and miss in the profile, but also potential for an electric power-speed combo if all breaks right for Graham.
Asking former Prospects Live evaluator and Detroit Tigers fan Trevor Hooth’s take on Graham, he said “He seems cool.” With that ringing endorsement, I’ll take the median outcome of an everyday player for the moment, but it’s hard to make a judgment call without seeing him swing a wood bat against professional pitching. I expect to have a more informed opinion come the end of the 2023 minor league season, but for now, he lands in my Tier 3 with a lot of potential to move up. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 7
tier none
Abel Bastidas, SS, 19
After a very underwhelming offensive performance in 2021 in the DSL, Bastidas showed a bit of improvement in 2022 at the Complex. He slashed .260/.361/.409 with 3 home runs and 4 stolen bases. Plus walk rates (13.3%) and strikeout rates (18.3%) accompanied that performance, but looking at the data ratings and everything else looks average to above average. The strong point here is the defense where Bastidas has the chops to stick at short, and that will keep him pushing through the minor leagues.
There is some prospect pedigree as he was considered a top 30 prospect in the 2021 International Free Agency class. Add in a projectable frame and that could push Bastidas into hobby relevancy at some point. But until there is more than just average offensive impact, it’s more real baseball interest than hobby interest. With the pedigree and projection, he’s on the borderline of Tier 3 and Tier None. I’ll go conservative here as I want to see some semblance of over-the-fence pop before considering Bastidas of any hobby relevance. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 4
Javier Osorio, SS, 18
It feels like a cruel joke that we get Javier, and not Oswaldo Osorio in this checklist (no relation). Javier got a big $2.2MM bonus in the 2022 J15 period where he looked like a potential plus defender at short with excellent bat speed. None of that has translated as a pro yet. He posted some of the worst contact rates in the DSL, only had 6 XBH in 46 games, and even committed 20 errors on the defensive side. He’s as raw as the gas station sushi I ate yesterday, and his performance is sitting just about as well. But to draw those accolades from amateur scouts though…there has to be some improvement coming, right? Right? Risk: 10 Ceiling: 4-6
Houston Astros
tier 1
None
tier 2
Ryan Clifford, OF, 19
Clifford was drafted in the 11th Round of the 2022 Draft and signed away from a Vanderbilt commitment with a way overslot $1.26 MM bonus, commensurate to 2nd Round money. His defense and speed need work, which are goals of his - otherwise we’d be talking about a potential quick riser through the system. For his age the feel-to-hit / power combination was among the best in his class. That’s not to say his hit tool is advanced in total – he’s stepped back in that area as weaknesses have arisen in his ability to make contact against higher-level competition. But he’s still very good at pitch identification and his on-base skill is a nice deodorant. What’s a better deodorant is his easy plus power potential. He’s a physically mature 6`3” already and showed out in showcase settings with elite bat speed. He needs some tweaks and development as a hitter to max out his potential with his power in-game but the Astros are a good system to develop it. They’ve also put their faith in him to start 2023 at Single-A.
There’s a very high ceiling with Clifford weighted in the part of the hobby we care about the most, but his rising limitations as a hitter and defense are just a small cause for concern. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 7
Kenni Gomez, OF, 17
Gomez is really interesting because his hit tool is so advanced for his age. It was a bit less than the full DSL season, but from what we saw, he’s very good already at identifying pitches and finding meaningful impact, as evidenced by the .402 OBP and 11 XBH he hit in 37 games - that was good for a .429 wOBA. He has some power, and his body still has room to grow, but it’s not likely to be more than an above average tool. That’s perfectly fine for this archetype! If he continues to show just gap-to-gap power it’s still an MLB-starter projection as a ceiling. He has enough speed for CF, but with maturation translating it to the basepaths will diminish.
He needs to fill out more before hitting full-season ball, so this will be a slower burn. I’m easily making this dart throw over the other DSL-experienced Cuban (Dyan Jorge) in the mid-level of this checklist. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 6-8
tier 3
Wilyer Abreu, OF, 23
Traded to the Red Sox along with Enmanuel Valdez for Christian Vazquez at the 2022 trade deadline. Abreu is the classic power over hit outfielder with an uppercut swing path and some serious rotational whip through the zone. With his patient approach, he’s able to put up gaudy walk rates in the 20% range. This still comes with a mid-20% strikeout rate, pushing him into a three-true outcomes type of bucket. He hit 19 home runs combined in 2022 at his Double-A stops for the Astros and the Red Sox.
Abreu has been pegged as a 4th outfielder type, and the Red Sox find him valuable enough that first, they traded for him, and second, added him to the 40-man roster this past off-season. With some more approach and swing adjustments, which the Red Sox have already been implementing, Abreu has enough upside that I’m going to put him in Tier 3. It may just be me being smitten or fooled with that bat whip, but there is some good clay for molding here. There’s also quite a bit of downside as well to be wary of. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 5
Kenedy Corona, OF, 23
He’s still not a surefire big-leaguer headed into his age-23 season, but his 2022 season went a long way toward that projection. Corona is best described as a gamer with plus speed. He showed some pull-side power for the first time at both A levels, and also improved his plate discipline quite a bit. He hasn’t experienced the advanced pitching in the upper minors yet, so how he adjusts to that adversity will determine whether he’s a 5th OF-type or a nice, dynamic, second-division regular. Maddeningly he wasn't given the chance to start the year at AA, so it continues to be a slow ride. At best, we’re looking at a 24 YO debut season, so for the hobby he won’t be a star. Not everyone has to be! Corona has intangible assets that make me aggressively push him into the bottom of Tier 3. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 5
tier none
Andrew Taylor, P, 21
I love the fit with the Astros. Organizationally, they’re the foremost analytics-driven team there is, and Taylor is a pitcher who will certainly benefit from that. He doesn’t spin his off-speed pitches well, but he’s got a fastball with fantastic shape, so there’s something to work with. The Astros will put him in the lab, ideally, something will click, and he’ll escape the back-end starter bucket. For the hobby we never project a change like that, so he’ll be cheap, but I’m a buyer as a dart throw. He’s one of the youngest college pitchers from the 2022 Draft, so if it comes together quickly he could debut at 22. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 6
Shay Whitcomb, 2B/SS, 24
5th round pick of the Astros in the 2020 Pandemic shortened MLB Draft, Whitcomb ended up being Mr. Irrelevant in that draft - is that a thing in baseball like it is in football?
Whitcomb’s prospect status took a pretty big hit in 2022. Previously he had been hanging around toward the back half of the Astros’ Top 30s, but he’s essentially fallen off of those lists given the top-line stats, mostly batting average, having cratered significantly. Above average raw power is the primary attraction with Whitcomb, putting 16 over the fence in 2021 and 19 in 2022. In 2021, a .391 BABIP helped fuel a .300 batting average and a 148 wRC+. In 2022, a more realistic BABIP of .293 dropped that batting average down to .219 and a not-so-nice 69 wRC+. Add in the fact that his poor walk and strikeout rates were pretty much the same in 2021 and 2022 at around 7% and 32% respectively and it all paints a picture of Whitcomb being exposed against tougher pitching.
With nothing to grasp onto even in the data, Whitcomb drifts into that dreaded Quad-A power hitting second baseman that will strike out too much, not walk enough, and not get enough quality contact to be more than org depth. It is the Astros, a quality dev org, so I’m not crossing him off my list altogether, but he’s got a long way to go to be a viable hobby chase, even with the power tool in hand. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 4
Kansas City Royals
tier 1
None
tier 2
None
Tier 3
Lizandro Rodriguez, INF, 20
For a player who clearly needs to add strength in both halves of his body, Rodriguez has performed very well. Even though his swing is not geared for contact, his bat-to-ball skills are excellent (leading to a sub-17 K% in 2022), and he’s shown an ability to erstwhile get on base via the walk. He even has some present pop, totaling 16 XHB in 144 ABs. Right now he plays to all of his raw power, so it’s a stretch to call it a double-digit HR bat. To me the biggest takeaway comes from the projection remaining in his body – he doesn’t look like he’s 5’11” anymore and definitely doesn’t look like his listed 180 lbs – he has a very slight frame that could stand to add significantly more muscle. If he does, how will that affect his power output? It’s a guess but I’ll say his body grows into that of a traditional MI with 15-20 HR pop, at maturity.
With just moderate growth to his plate skills as well, it’s easy to see a starting MLB 2B. That position is where his skills play best, but there’s enough arm to go to 3B or even SS. It’s all projection, projection, projection, but a really nice profile for the hobby. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 7
Austin Charles, SS, 19
It’s safe to completely disregard the 20th-Round stigma as compared to his talent. His bonus money dictates he was more of a 5th Round talent, and that’s about right. Charles is very raw right now but he has two tools that in their present state have plus projection. One is his arm, which when he figures out a defensive home will buoy his defensive value there. The other is his raw power, which to say is plus raw might be light. He’s 6’6” and broad-shouldered, and though his body has developed some, there’s plenty of projection remaining. As a hitter, he’s simply not advanced at all. He’s not good at identifying spin yet, leading to a lot of chase out of the zone. He also swings too much in general so quality of contact isn’t consistent. When he does make good contact, it’s a solid line drive approach that with significant development could lead to an average or better hit tool. There’s a long way to go, and the range of outcomes is enormous. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 7-9
Juan Olmos, C, 18
It’s likely Olmos only lands this high because he only accrued 56 PAs in the DSL — Olmos is 100% projection. The Colombian signed for 800K in the 2022 J15 period, one of the top signers for the Royals in the period. We don’t care about arm strength too much for the hobby, but that's the best tool that we know of. It’s a potential elite weapon that could translate to RF if catching doesn’t work out. For now though, his catching is strong enough that he’ll likely land in the Complex in 2023 despite his limited pro experience. With that, we’ll at least get to see whether his offensive skills are a boost or a burden without the albatross of repeating the DSL. For the hobby, catchers usually do poorly, and with this being one that’s at least a year away from even a full season of minor league ball, it’s a major turn-off. He’s the very last of the generic-DSL Tier 3 names — likely he ends up in Tier None, but with no in-game information, he gets the slight benefit of the doubt. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 4-6
Tier none
Diego Hernandez, OF, 22
Hernandez has been primarily a speed and center field defense profile for a while now. A supposed swing change has unlocked a bit of power, to the tune of nine home runs in 2022, but looking at the data, I don’t see anything notable. He’s still putting the ball on the ground over 50% of the time and his chase rate is in fringe territory at this point. As I said, speed is his main plus tool as he swiped 40 bases across two levels in 2022.
The Royals added him to the 40-man roster this off-season to protect him in the Rule 5 draft, but he apparently picked up an injury in the spring that has led to a 60-man IL spot. So some good, some bad. He’s a fourth outfielder type at this point and I don’t see much more, which keeps him capped in Tier None territory from a hobby perspective. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 3
Henry Ramos, OF, 18
An 800k-bonus 2022 J15, there are plenty of reasons to think Ramos will succeed, but a .193 BA in the DSL isn’t one of them. He has some raw power, so there should even be some intrigue from a hobby standpoint. There was a bit of passivity that likely led to poor quality of contact, and poor foot speed is a contributor too, but a .256 BABIP with a neutral batted ball profile tells me there’s some natural progression to the mean coming to his performance. I think he deserves a shot at the Complex this year, but that’s not a prediction we’ll know the answer to for a while. Any way you slice it, he’s just about as far away from the majors as you can get. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 4-6
Los Angeles Angels
tier 1
None
tier 2
Nelson Rada, OF, 17
The Angels have been making some interesting organizational pushes in the last 10 months, and Rada is now one of them. He’s one of just a handful of players making the jump from the DSL to starting the year in Low-A (and he doesn’t turn 18 until August!). He’s earned it.
He was one of ten players at the level with an ISO over .120 and a K% under 15%, and he led all of those players in stolen bases by a large margin (27 in 50 games). That’s a nice snapshot into the player Rada is now - a dynamic centerfield type with plus speed and a precociously advanced feel to hit for his age. With maturity his power should approach being average, but don’t expect much this year. If he hits even 8-10, watch out - it probably means he’s on a rocket ship to the majors. The aim of the quick promotions the Angels have been doing recently is not in focus. If it’s truly to get the best talent to the majors quickly, he could be the next teenager to debut in the majors in mid-2025. He’s a great add to this product, and the type of safe-ish, high ceiling prospect I’m very much interested in. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 7-9
Tier 3
Caden Dana, P, 19
To escape Tier None, any prep pitcher with only a few innings of pro experience would need a pitch or two that are already plus (such as Jackson Ferris or Brock Porter), and probably ‘something else’ like a good landing spot. Dana doesn’t have any of that. However, he did get a $1.5MM bonus (2nd-Round money) and he has all the projectability in his body you want from a future starter. It’s all raw, but he does have a four-pitch mix at present and he has an understanding of how to use each of them, even if execution isn’t always there. With those skills already in place, he received an assignment to Low-A to start his development in a fully competitive environment. The early returns on his performance are great, enough to bump him to the bottom of Tier 3. All else remains the same - if you’re reading this in mid-May and he looks like he’s been bad, then sure, move him to the bottom of Tier None. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 6
Randy De Jesus, OF, 18
Another seven-figure 2022 J15 who experienced some success in the DSL, De Jesus fits the model of a corner OF slugger. He’s already filled out his lower half a bit, which allowed him to get to game power (21 XBH in 52 games). He still has more physical maturation to come, and with his large frame power should continue to be his calling card. His hitting overall is, as most of his age, raw. Nothing extreme though, nothing to indicate he can’t improve. How far that hit tool develops will drive his ceiling. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 6-8
Tier None
Jorge Ruiz, OF, 18
I don’t think anyone will get caught up in thinking hitting .335 at the Complex is predictive, but don’t sleep on the prospect who’s shown an ability to make consistent meaningful contact for two straight years either. He’s firmly in Tier None because, to put it as simply as possible, he lacks power and projection. Moreover, his approach is one that includes much too much chase - that will definitely get exposed as he moves to higher levels. Still though, give the kid a chance. His hit is the only tool that’s likely to be average or better, but it could end up as plus. That’s got some real-life value, but for the hobby he’s less desirable. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 5
Joe Stewart, OF, 24
Stewart was a fourth year college player (5th year of eligibility due to the pandemic-lost season) signing for a paltry $7,500. The Angels did the same with their 10th round pick to be able to throw $1.5M at their 11th round prep pitcher pick and fellow 1st Bowman subject in this product, Caden Dana.
Stewart broke out after transferring from Michigan State to Michigan for the 2022 college season, hitting .349 with 13 home runs and 23 stolen bases. He’s lanky with a good deal of raw power and good speed. I saw him beating out or making it very close on a lot of ground balls in his debut. But that is part of the problem - his small sample at High A after the draft was underwhelming with a really bad ground ball rate at 65%. Other stats and data likewise did not look good.
As an older player, Stewart is going to have to kick it into high gear to make much of a future impact. He did go to Driveline in the off-season, so there is something to pique your interest. But Driveline isn’t a magic potion either. Stewart could make his way to being a 4th/5th outfielder type, but the deck is stacked against him and the clock is ticking. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 4
Jadiel Sanchez, OF, 21
Sanchez was acquired by the Angels in the Noah Syndergaard/Mickey Moniak trade. He’s this low for a few reasons: he remains mostly projection, his age is starting to creep up in terms of hobby relevance (he’ll be 22 in May, and has only seen 53 games in Low-A), and he’s not a dynamic athlete. He’s good at putting bat-to-ball, but he chases too much leading to poor quality of contact. It’s a shame because he does have good pull-side power, but to realize the ceiling of that power he’ll need to significantly change his approach. There’s enough real-life interest in the power potential that he’ll stick around accruing ABs at lower levels, but for the hobby the turnaround will need to happen quickly to be relevant. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 5
Los Angeles Dodgers
tier 1
Josue de Paula, OF, 17
Drawing the nickname ‘Baby Yordan’, being Stephon Marbury’s nephew, and having those two things as an appeal to the Dodgers large hobby market and impressive development pipeline make de Paula a wide-awake sleeper for this product. For prospectors, that’s not really a sleeper at all - he’s only such because he’s yet to play stateside as a pro. Let’s disregard the Yordan comps. It’s not fair to put that on someone just because he’s 6’4” with broad shoulders built for future mass.
What de Paula was, in reality, is the best complete-hitter 17 YO the DSL saw in 2022. He walked more than he stuck out, had an all-fields approach, and made an elite level of zone contact. It was impactful contact too, tallying 20 XBH in 53 games. His .349 batting average was 4th among his peers. As the opening accolade indicates, he also has plus raw power. Is he truly getting to much of it at this stage of his development? There’s a solid case to be made that he’s not….yet…but when he does I think it’ll be something to behold. As he grows into physical maturity it’s expected that his athleticism will decrease to being just a corner OF bat, but it won’t matter. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 8-10
tier 2
None
Tier 3
Juan Alonso, OF, 19
All the discussion around Alonso is about his hit tool. He does some things extremely well, but his approach overall needs work. He’s excellent at picking up spin – he has an elite ability to not swing at balls outside the zone. But that works to his detriment as well, as some borderline calls don’t go his way and he finds himself behind in counts. He also isn’t very discerning at which balls in the zone he swings at, which leads to a fair amount of swing-and-miss in the zone as well, and poor quality of contact. There’s generally a 50 thrown on his future hit tool, but there’s a lot of helium to it if his approach issues can be figured out. If he does end up being more consistently impactful with his swings, there is above-average raw power waiting for him – that would make him something like a .370 OBP / 20 HR ceiling.
Being in the Dodgers’ system can only help him get close to that potential, and it’ll also boost interest in his cards as he heads into a full season at Low-A. Defensively he’ll likely be a corner OF as his speed is just average, but it’s not a limitation the hobby should consider. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 7
Mairoshendrick Martinus, SS, 18
Obvious 80-grade name aside, Martinus has some very, very intriguing potential. He’s listed at 6’3” and has classically broad shoulders – with added muscle, plus raw power is an inevitability. It’s even already beginning to show up in-game - he put out above-average exit velocity in the DSL and even socked an impressive 7 dingers in 52 games. That said, his hit tool is no sure thing. He’s not advanced with it at present (35% SwStr, lots of chase) and men of his size tend to struggle with making enough contact even with maturity.
We’ll have to see how he develops in the next few years - his body could go many different ways. He moves well for his size, though his future is at the hot corner and his base running speed will diminish as he bulks up. Proceed with caution, but he’s very much a worthwhile dart throw. He’s closer to the top of Tier 3 than other DSL bats. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 7-9
Yeiner Fernandez, C/2B, 20
Fernandez put up strong results in his first full season at Single-A with a .292/.383/.430 slash line, 10 home runs, an 11% walk rate, and a paltry 13% strikeout rate. He has the athleticism to play behind the plate as well as push out to second base. There is still a lot of work that he needs to do as a catcher, but he does have elite pop times.
Given his team and positional flexibility, the Austin Barnes comps have already been floated out there. With his stature, there isn’t likely a ton more power than what he’s already shown, and the hit tool will be the driver toward what his future major league role will be. With his plus plate approach, ability to regularly put the bat to the ball in all my looks, and team context, I’ll lean towards the optimistic side and put Yeiner in Tier 3. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 5
Damon Keith, OF, 22
In 2022, Keith crushed Single-A for before being pushed to High-A where he was challenged quite a bit more. At Single-A, he hit .299 with 12 home runs, a 17% walk rate and a 22% strikeout rate in 88 games. In 31 High-A games, the average dipped to .204 and the strikeout rate climbed to 27%. The walk rate did maintain at 17%, so this looks to be a real skill, and I saw him be plenty patient while watching his at bats.
There’s some legit power with Keith and a plus walk rate, but a ground ball rate above 50% and a climbing strikeout rate as he got to High-A do signal a bit of caution. Given the Dodgers amazing dev org, it gives me an optimistic outlook on Keith. Normally this is more of a Quad-A profile with a Tier None ranking, but the power and Dodgers context helps me push him into Tier 3. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 5
Logan Wagner, 3B/2B, 19
6th round pick of the Dodgers in the 2022 MLB Draft out of the Illinois prep ranks that signed an overslot deal roughly equivalent to a third round slot value. He got 15 games at the Complex post-draft, but there’s nothing to really draw any conclusions from. He didn’t chase at all, like zero, leading to an elite chase rate, but everything else was average to above average.
A switch hitting infielder that is currently hit over power but could get to more power as his body matures. Not much to go off of stat or video wise, but Wagner is definitely intriguing, especially in a top dev org like the Dodgers. He’s someone to track closely in 2023. A tentative Tier 3 ranking that I anticipate going up or down after we see how his first full pro season goes. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 4-6
Tier none
Yunior Garcia, 1B/OF, 21
Garcia is listed at 6’0” 200 pounds, but it sure looks like that is underselling the situation by 30+ pounds. There is definite power in that thick frame, and he finally tapped into it in 2022 by hitting 13 home runs in 87 Single-A games with an elite 90th percentile exit velocity ranking. He only got 10 games at High-A, so I am going to ignore those stats. At Single-A, he had an average strikeout rate and a below average walk rate, but was still able to get on base quite a bit. That’s mostly attributable to Garcia swinging at almost everything, whether it was in the zone or out of the zone. While that can work at the lower levels, it’s going to be a challenge as he faces more advanced pitching.
Garcia is on the borderline of Tier None and Tier 3 for me. His body leads me to believe that the trend towards first base and DH playing time and less and less outfield reps is his future and that will put a lot more pressure on his bat. The power potential and Dodgers context is Tier 3 worthy, but everything else screams Tier None to me, which is where I will put him with a decently high ceiling rank. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 5
Miami Marlins
tier 1
None
tier 2
Jacob Berry, 3B/1B, 21
1st round pick (6th overall) in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Marlins out of LSU.
Berry is a plus hit and above average power, offense-first switch hitter that put up mid-teen home runs in his first two college seasons before being drafted in 2022. He has a strong plate approach as evidenced by the sub-16% strikeout rate in the small sample of 33 games post-draft. The concern with Berry is that he won’t be stealing any bases and even more importantly, is defensively challenged. While primarily playing third base, the likelihood he sticks there is slim. He’s almost assuredly going to end up as a first base/designated hitter player, which puts significant pressure on his above average power being able to allow him to find a full-time role.
The context with Berry is very important - if Berry had been drafted by an analytically and hitting development forward-thinking organization like the Rays or the Dodgers later in round 1 or even a round later, he would likely be a “sleeper”, “pick to click”, or whatever other term along that line of thinking. Drafted in the top 10, somewhat considered an overdraft due to some of the concerns in his profile, and to an organization that hasn’t developed a young bat in quite a while (Jazz notwithstanding, as he was a Diamondback for the initial half of his development), Berry’s prospect status is often a lot less than what you would expect of a 6th overall pick. Because he has the draft pedigree, the hit/power combination, and we haven’t seen him much against professional level competition to form a strong opinion, I will go with a very non-committal Tier 2 ranking. That means while his ceiling is decently high, at the moment I am concerned he won't come close to reaching it and want nothing to do with him from a hobby perspective given the aforementioned context, if you can’t read between the lines. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 7
Tier 3
Antony Peguero, OF, 18
The Marlins top J15 signee in 2022 with a 575k bonus, Peguero showed off an advanced feel to hit for his age at the DSL. To call that tool truly having plus potential would require him to be a bit more selective - he swings a lot. He was just average at making contact with those swings and also chased quite a bit. But he does get three swings per AB, and more often than not put the ball into play with authority on one of them - he only had a 16 K%. His discipline issues seem very coachable - so with moderate power growth expected and enough arm to handle RF, I can see him being one of the safer DSL players in this set. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 5-7
Yoffry Solano, SS, 18
A six-figure 2022 J15 signing, Solano put in an impressive .320/.393/.398 season in the DSL in 2022. There’s more performance than projection with Solano if we’re taking those numbers at face value - he had an aggressive approach with significant chase and swing-and-miss that will get exposed against tougher pitching. It’s a fixable issue. He does possess good speed, so with refinement, the general archetype should play well to his strengths. Power is not likely to be his forte as he matures, but there figures to be some. Solano is one of the more polished DSL bats in this product, and for the hobby, the potential quick ascension of a very young player is definitely something to consider. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 5-7
tier none
Troy Johnston, 1B, 24
17th round pick of the Marlins in the 2019 MLB draft out of Gonzaga. He sounds like a great, well-rounded guy - Jared Perkins interviewed him this past off-season on Beyond Baseball at Prospects Live and it’s worth a watch.
Focusing on the baseball aspect, Johnston regularly exhibits a plus plate approach with above average walk and strikeout rates. The first time he ever had a sub-11% walk rate was in Double-A this year, and he’s never had a strikeout rate over 21%. His power is just average with back-to-back seasons of mid-teens home runs. That lack of power will put more pressure on his bat with him essentially locked in at first base, although you could throw him into a corner outfield in a pinch.
Johnston was left unprotected in this year’s Rule 5 draft and was not chosen, giving you a good idea of his value in MLB circles. He’s an end-of-the-bench 1B/LF strong side platoon bat on a second division team that doesn’t have enough power to make an impression hobby-wise. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 4
Milwaukee Brewers
tier 1
None
tier 2
Luis Lara, OF, 18
Lara was one of three seven-figure signings in the 2022 J15 period for the Brew Crew, and so far he looks like the cream of the crop based on what he did in the DSL. His power ceiling is capped due to his 5’7” frame, but wait for this: he was only a few 17 YO’s to post above-average exit velocity and plate discipline. Add in above-average speed that plays up due to explosive acceleration, and in a very simple manner, we have a prospect that’s extremely interesting for the hobby. Now, the EVs he achieved aren’t a lie, but he also didn’t hit with consistent hard contact. With physical development, that should come. He even needs a little more time so his body is developed enough for full-season ball, but once he gets there he strikes me as a guy who could rise quickly. As I mentioned the power ceiling is limited, but if he maxes out his potential 15-20 HR with all his other tools, he’ll still be a star in the eyes of the hobby. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 7-9
Jace Avina, OF, 19
Avina looks like a boom-or-bust bat with power-to-all-fields upside, all of which was seen in his 2022 season. He swings too much and misses a ton, especially in the zone, but when he makes solid contact it goes far. It worked at the Arizona Complex League, where he had 19 extra-base hits in 35 games (10 HR) en route to winning league MVP. That’s fantastic no matter how much he was striking out, following the Elly De La Cruz blueprint to success. However, when he was promoted to Low-A for the second half of his season, his inability to pick up spin led to the quality of contact issues, and at that point the continued high K% made his approach look untenable. He’s headed back to Low-A Carolina to start 2023, where he'll look for some sort of consistency and to improve his contact rate. In addition to the obvious power, he’s a great outfield defender for his age – so if he develops a fringe-average hit tool (and I think he can) it’s a great hobby ceiling. It’d be easier to put him atop Tier 3 but the Brewers fan in me has me pushing to the bottom of Tier 2. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 8
tier 3
None
Tier none
Dylan O’Rae, MI, 19
O’Rae was the first out-of-nowhere pick of the 2022 Draft in the 3rd Round, coming from deep in the Canadian prep ranks. (OK, not that deep, he was on a Junior National Team.) It’s easy to simply say the Brewers overdrafted O’Rae, but there was something they saw that made them take him this early and give him slot money. His swing looks very contact-oriented, which suits his lithe frame. There’s a wide variance among reports on ceiling, but speed is his carrying tool, with hit following close behind. He’s started building his lower half but it’s clear his body isn’t ready for full season ball, so he’ll start the year in Extended Spring Training. It’ll be a while before we get a chance to really know how good he is. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 5-7
Matthew Wood, C, 21
A strong 2022 season at Penn St had some evaluators moving Wood up far enough to be a future MLB-starting catcher. The Brewers took that chance in the 4th Round of the Draft. He has on-base skills for days - it’s the strongest part of his hit tool that may end up as above-average. He also showed emergent power, but for now, that should be seen as an extension of his body’s maturation and his hitting skills becoming more polished. Really his only positional option, he’s just an average defender behind the plate at present – it needs to improve a lot to make it as a MLB regular. There’s hobby potential here but he’s not as polished as most college catchers, and his power ceiling is limited to something like 15 HR at peak. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 5
Daniel Guilarte, SS, 19
Guilarte did not play in 2021 for reasons unknown and then went straight to the Complex for the 2022 season. He had a relatively successful go at it, hitting .306/.403/.371 with 8 stolen bases and if you saw that slugging number, you guessed it, zero home runs. A patient approach bordering on passive with his zone swing rate rating below average, but when he does swing his zone contact rates were plus. His walk rate was plus in the 13% range while his strikeout rate was above average at 22%.
Guilarte has the talent to stick at short but could also find himself playing elsewhere up the middle. He’s essentially a hit/speed/defense profile that could jump into relevance if the power comes with physical maturation. Until then, he’s more baseball relevant than hobby relevant. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 3
Minnesota Twins
tier 1
None
tier 2
Edouard Julien, 2B, 23
MLB enacted rules this year to help speed up the game, but Edouard Julien said not so fast, Rob Manfred. There are passive plate approaches, and then there’s Julien - he just isn’t going to chase a pitch and will force pitchers to throw it in the zone. His walk rates are elite and have gotten close to 20% in years previous. The strikeout rate will suffer because he can get behind in counts, so this isn’t an elite Pujolsian situation that you may start to imagine given his walk rate. His patience does more often than not lead to getting pitches he can do damage with, and he has a good amount of pop in his bat. He hit 18 home runs in 2021 and 17 home runs in 2022. The main issue with Julien is defensively - he’s a fringe defender at best. In the short term, the Twins will try to hide him at second base, but long term he’s likely destined for a first base at best or designated hitter role at worst.
If given full time run, Julien looks like a .300 hitter with a .400+ OBP and 20 - 25 home runs. In general, that would merit Tier 1 consideration. However, the defensive liability is going to limit his opportunities, and just in the short time we’ve seen him at the MLB level with his recent debut, he’s been replaced by better defenders later in games. The floor is quite high, but the ceiling is unfortunately capped. Risk: 1 Ceiling: 8
tier 3
None
tier none
Yilber Herrera, 2B, 18
He managed 10 XBH in his 43 games, but there was just an extreme amount of passivity from Yilber in his pro debut. A 20 BB% will always get that callout, and he also didn't make anything resembling consistent impact when he did swing. In my mind he’s fallen down to at least 5th in ranks of the Twins’ impressive 2022 J15 class (Yasser Mercedes, Jose Rodriguez, Brayan Acuna, and Anderson Nova being in front of him), so there’s some organizational saturation for far-away prospects from a hobby perspective. Quick hands is the calling card for now, but how it translates to his in-game tools is a mystery. Still plenty of time to figure it out. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 4-6
Kyler Fedko, OF, 23
After a strong start to 2022 in Single-A, Fedko got the promotion to High-A in mid-May and wasn’t able to reproduce that Single-A small sample. He hit just .231 with 8 home runs and 9 stolen bases across 84 games at Cedar Rapids. He was able to keep his strikeout rate below 20% and his walk rate above 10%, but this looks to be the result of a passive plate approach. His chase rates were above average, and when he was swinging, his zone contact rates were plus, but he was swinging at pitches in the zone at a below average rate.
Not much of a prospect coming into the draft, Fedko doesn’t look to have changed that perception much if at all. He looks like org depth that could provide corner outfield reps but not really much beyond that. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 3
New York Mets
tier 1
None
tier 2
Alex Ramirez, OF, 20
Ramirez had cards in 2021 Bowman Chrome so he doesn’t get a write-up, but he bears note here because his first Bowman autographs come in this set. He would fall right around the top of Tier 2 if we were evaluating.
tier 3
William Lugo, 3B, 21
Before 2022, Lugo had been riding the struggle bus in just about every way imaginable for a few years in the low minors, but he’s rebounded nicely. Lugo steps up and looks to pull the ball into the bleachers. He’s got the size and strength to do it, and as an emergent skill last year, ability to pick up spin and chase less. That made it apparent that he was no longer simply an all-or-nothing type. He even continued his success after being promoted to High-A midway through the season.
It’s a rising offensive profile for sure, which the hobby loves to see. That said, he still chased too much despite the big improvement - he’ll have to improve there and also continue to improve his contact in the zone. To be truly considered a major league-quality power threat, he probably needs to get to most of his raw power. However - his hit tool has also risen to look fringe-average as well, so he could still make it as a bench bat/DH type as a 60th% outcome. He has poor speed and will only be a corner infielder, so the pressure is all on his bat. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 7
Nick Morabito, OF, 19
Morabito only had 6 games at the Complex in 2022, so we have very little to go on and those stats are basically worthless. Not a ton of video since he didn’t get much showcase action. The video I did see showed plenty of speed out of the box and a decent amount of contact, but nothing overly impressive. The reports on him are an athletic hit and speed player with future power potential.
With a highly collectible team and some decent draft pedigree (2022 2nd round compensatory pick), I expect there to be a decent amount of hobby interest in the prep bat. I’m not seeing that power projection in the video I watched, but there wasn't much to go on, so I’ll go ahead and give him a tentative Tier 3 ranking pending more looks. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 7
Vincent Perozo, C, 20
Be bold and grab some Perozo. He’s a really deep sleeper and surely on the cusp of Tier None, but there’s some hobby appeal as well. He’s a catcher through and through, so if that’s not your thing, he’s fair to avoid. His husky build is such that if he doesn’t make it there, he won’t make it anywhere. We’re here for the power potential. Very few catchers of his age posed the exit velocity numbers he did, and unlike most of those peers there was a semblance of balance to his approach at the plate. Before a late-season call-up to Low-A he had tallied 13 XBH in 36 games to go with a .283/.387/.475 line. He’s still a bit raw at the plate - he would do well to simply swing less as his 33.5% SwStr would indicate. Being a catcher limits how fast he’ll move through the system and how well he performs defensively is absolutely critical - but he’s a great low-end dart throw for the hobby. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 6
Jesus Baez, SS, 18
Baez is the quintessential interesting-for-the-hobby DSL dart throw. Good arm, average contact rate, and below average speed are the underlying skills – but we’re here for the power. It’s what earned him his 275K bonus in the 2022 J15 class, and he showed it off in his debut with 7 HR in 54 games. For now it’s enough to be interesting for the hobby, but this is a very raw prospect. His highs were very high, but he also slugged just .313 after June 30. There needs to be more consistency in his game to escape modest expectations. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 6-8
tier none
Jose Peroza, INF, 21
The only thing Peroza lacks is a true carrying tool. He was racked with injury for a few years before putting together solid 2021 & 2022 campaigns. As health has returned, he’s continually improved and the player he could be has come into focus. Unfortunately, it’s not one that approximates a big-league regular. He’s essentially close to fringe-average everywhere. Being a bat-first utility player is his best route forward, but to get there he’ll need to get to every bit of the limited power projection he has remaining. He’s currently hurt again, but when healthy he’ll head to AA to start 2023 so there’s an air of proximity - if he does well this evaluation could quickly turn around. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 4
Junior Tilien, INF, 20
It’s fair to say Tilien’s prospect status has risen in his three-plus years as a pro. He’s shown decent game power but doesn’t likely have room to grow into much more. He chases too much, but otherwise has a hit tool that looks fringe-average. There’s simply nothing that stands out - no carrying tool. With a utility profile defensively, he’ll at least provide organizational depth while accruing ABs to see if he can make the considerable improvements he needs to project as a second-division regular. The easiest path for him to significance is a further increase in power output, so there should at least be moderate interest in his cards. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 4
New York Yankees
tier 1
Spencer Jones, OF, 21
The lefty-Aaron Judge comps aren’t fair. But maybe he should have thought about that before he got drafted by the same team, grew to 6’7”, and posted top-of-the-scale exit velocity in his debut. Why’s he gotta look so good? I want a piece for my hobby portfolio, but the Yankees fans are notoriously ravenous and competitive. Literally every hobby-friendly ingredient is something he possesses, to the point where anything short of being the next Aaron Judge will be a mild disappointment.
Jones hit .370 with 12 HR at Vanderbilt, a very nice season for his first as a full-time collegiate player. But concerns about his swing-and-miss and ability to handle velocity made him look more like a project than someone who could come to Low-A and put up a .325/.411/.494 slash. It’s not that he’s answered all the questions - 95 PAs can’t do that.They still exist, and he’s still only in High-A to start 2023. But if he continues to show what he's been showing, everyone was simply wrong about power being his only above-average tool. He’s not quick but he does have above-average top-end speed, from which a few SB can be expected. On the defensive side, his arm has fully recovered from 2021 TJ, and it plays as a solid average. There’s enough defensive versatility that a hobby shouldn’t care. But we’re talking about Yankees fans here, who are we kidding - it never mattered. Jones had them at “double-plus power potential”. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 10
tier 2
None
Tier 3
Juan Carela, P, 21
Carela had a strong showing at Single-A with a 12.5 K/9 and a plus CSW rating. His promotion to High-A to finish the season to face more advanced hitters didn’t go as well. In 28 innings, his K/9 was cut in half and his BB/9 increased by at least a third. He’ll throw a low-90s fastball that has arm side run and I saw it missing quite a bit on the arm side. His breaking stuff is highlighted by his low-80’s slider and that was the whiff generator. I saw it mostly as a sweeper, but I did see a gyro, more vertical breaker used in one of his starts. He also has a cutter, curveball, and changeup that have low usage in the video I watched.
There’s a mid-rotation upside here with a lot of “ifs” attached - if he can increase the fastball velocity, if he can find command and control with the heater at the very least, if he can have an efficient third pitch. Lacking some to all of those items will push Carela to the bullpen and a Tier None profile. Given the Yankees team context and the filthy slider he wields, he’s getting an optimistic Tier 3 ranking. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 5
tier none
Marcos Cabrera, 3B, 21
Cabrera has above average-power and it’s nice to see him continue to get to it in-game as he advances levels. There’s also something of a dynamic athlete in his 6’3” frame, posting double-digit SB totals each of the last two years. Cabrera has improved defensively at 3B so it’s safe to say he’ll stick there as far as his bat will carry him. Flipping to the negative side - his hit tool doesn’t look like it will play without significant improvement. He chased and whiffed much too much at Low-A last year, leading to a sub-.200 BA and 39.7 K%. We’ll see if he can improve both those marks, as he was aggressively moved to High-A to start 2023. If he does, he’s still young enough and the profile is intriguing enough to be interesting for the hobby. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 6
Oakland Athletics
tier 1
None
tier 2
Colby Thomas, OF, 22
Thomas was having a great season at Mercer, showing an excellent power breakout with 17 HR in 42 games. Then he hurt his shoulder in May leading to labrum surgery and a slide in the Draft to the 3rd Round. He’s already back to start the 2023 season at Low A so the injury is behind him now.
Thomas will look to show at that lower level that his inability to hit off-speed pitches moving away from him are also behind him, as that was and is (for now) his biggest flaw as a hitter. His bat speed and game power is not in doubt – he’s great at crushing fastballs and mistakes in the zone. He has good speed and a good arm (pre shoulder injury at least), so with his power he’s a perfect fit for RF. It really comes down to how his hit tool develops as a pro. There’s a wide range of possibilities, starting with bench bat, all the way up to All-Star 30 HR bat. It was a great snag for the A’s when they took him, and a great medium-risk name for this checklist. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 7
Daniel Susac, C, 21
Being an early round (especially college) college catcher hasn’t been a hobby-friendly position to be in the last few years. Some have panned out, but only Adley Rutschman’s hobby stock has really taken off. The 2022 Draft could be the one the buck the trend with the likes of Susac, Kevin Parada, and Dalton Rushing.
Taken 19th overall, the Arizona product is a very large presence behind the plate at 6’4” – perhaps too large. If he has to move off the position because of a decrease in agility, he might work at 3B because of his plus arm. But we care the most about his bat for the hobby, and that’s what had him taken in the first round. He has more raw power than he’s shown in-game, and there’s a chance that it only stays as mostly gap-to-gap power. The hope is that’s not the case because his hit tool is squarely average. He was just OK at making contact in college due to a propensity for chasing outside the zone, and he didn’t get on base enough to make up for it. For him to hit his ceiling as a .250 BA / 25 HR backstop, there’s simply a lot of development remaining. He’ll be 22 in May and was assigned to High-A to start the year - hopefully it’s a quick development so he can contribute to the bucking of this hobby catcher trend. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 6
tier 3
Zack Gelof, 2B/3B, 23
Gelof was a 2021 draft pick that the A’s have shown a fair amount of confidence in with advanced assignments, skipping High-A altogether in fact, with an initial assignment to Double-A in 2022. He’s an offense-first profile that is able to translate his raw power straight into game power through sheer force of will. A flat bath path like Gelof has usually doesn’t lead to that raw power flowing into game power, but sometimes there are exceptions, and Gelof has shown he has that skill set including power to the pull side as well as the opposite field. However, with that power mindset and swing for the fences aggressiveness, it leads to a high strikeout rate - over 27% in 87 Double-A games in 2022. He’ll add some decent speed, probably getting in that teens range with full time MLB run. On the defensive side of the ball, his role is a bit more questionable - he’s probably a second baseman or left fielder, but can fill in at any corner position in short stints.
Gelof was a bit of a surprise in 2022, slugging 18 home runs between Double-A and Triple-A in 2022 with plus 90th percentile exit velocities, but he was doing that in mostly hitter friendly environments. He’s likely going to debut in 2023 given his proximity (currently in Triple-A) and the lackluster MLB roster in Oakland. The question is if he can keep the strike outs in a palatable range and be just good enough on defense to get regular at bats. If so, there’s a good chance at 20+ home runs. On a good team that has a strong collector base, Gelof sneaks into Tier 2. On a bad team that doesn’t have a strong following and a future home park that will cap his power, Gelof ends up as a high end Tier 3 bat. Risk: 2, Ceiling: 6
tier none
Colin Peluse, P, 24
9th round pick in the 2019 MLB Draft by the Athletics out of Wake Forest. He was exposed to the Rule 5 draft this past off-season and passed through unclaimed, which should already tell you a fair bit.
Primarily a low to mid 90’s fastball and a sweepy slider guy that is searching for an effective third pitch along the lines of a changeup, curveball, and a cutter. The slider is the one that gets the swings, especially against righties, as, at its best, it starts middle of the zone and breaks horizontally into the left-hand batters box. However, anything he leaves in the zone gets smacked hard, and he does pound the zone quite a bit, getting an elite grade in that area in our data driven pitcher rankings for 2022.
While there was a potential mid-rotation arm here at some point, the lack of a third pitch and lack of in zone whiffs have capped his ceiling. The A’s will likely give him every last opportunity to be a starter given their needs, but lacking impactful development, he looks to be a future bullpen arm more than anything else, which is a Tier None player. Risk: 3 Ceiling: 3
Philadelphia Phillies
tier 1
None
tier 2
Justin Crawford, OF, 19
Another legacy player in the 2022 MLB draft that gets his 1st Bowman in this product alongside Druw Jones and Cam Collier, Justin is the son of long-time MLB’er Carl Crawford. He’s currently looking like a potential elite speedster at peak - he hit an inside-the-park home run during his Senior season where he was clocked going from home to home in under 15 seconds. I’ll guarantee you I could not make it to first base in less than 15 seconds. His approach is a hit over power one where he’s got a flat bat path and is looking to put the ball in play rather than in the air to use that killer speed to his advantage.
The sample size of professional at bats is so small, it’s not worth digging too deep into the data. The real change to monitor for is his plate approach (walk/strikeout rates) and his ground ball/line drive/fly ball rates. For the moment, he’s a decent average, high stolen base, minimal pop, center fielder with a recognizable name on a relatively well-collected team and 1st round draft pedigree. That’s enough to get him into my Tier 2. If he adds power without sacrificing getting on base, then he’s a huge breakout star that looks like Corbin Carroll and deserves to get pushed into Tier 1. If he sticks to the approach of getting the ball in play rather than out of the park, then his margin for error of being hobby relevant shrinks significantly. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 9
Hao-Yu Lee, INF, 20
A signee from Taiwan in the 2021 J15 period, Lee has moved quickly through the system and will play his full season at High-A at 20. It’s because he’s shown a great ability to put balls into play, not chase, and get on base. In short, he has a great feel for hitting. He only stands 5’9” and his body is close to maxed out but definitely has gap-to-gap power. There’s a case to be made that his approach just doesn’t let him get to the peak of his above-average raw power to his pull side. He doesn’t sell out for it often. Could that change in the next few years? Probably not if he continues to put up something like the .283/.384/.415, sub-20 K% line he put up in Low A last year.
He’s a good enough hitter overall to project as a major leaguer already. It’s just a matter if he ends up as a 45 hit / 45 power type or a 55 hit / 55 power type. The latter is his only path to stardom, as his speed is below average and it’s likely he ends up as a 2B-only type. He’s a fun, safe prospect who should reach the majors at a young age, but his hobby ceiling isn’t very high. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 6
tier 3
Nikau Pouaka-Grego, INF, 18
Pouaka-Grego received a 250k bonus in the 2022 J15 signing period. If he makes it, he’ll be the first New Zealand-born position player to reach the majors! That’s a novelty worth noting, but he’s got potential to be more than just that. Pouka-Grego’s plate skills are downright exciting. His ABs were limited, but among players 18 or younger, only Hendry Mendez and Jackson Holiday posted a better SwStr%. Couple that with an .890 OPS at the Complex, and it’s easy to see a potential plus hit tool in his future. Now the negatives. First and foremost, he tore his ACL over the winter so he won’t be playing in 2023. He also isn’t a dynamic runner, has some rawness to his plate tendencies, and over-the-fence-power isn’t going to be his bailiwick. Still, with two points of interest, novel as one is, he’s a perfect fit in the middle of Tier 3. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 6
tier none
Rickardo Perez, C, 19
A better real-life prospect than a hobby one, everything so far is as advertised with Perez, who signed for $1MM in 2021. He debuted late at the Complex last year due to a bad ankle, but hit .349 with an excellent contact rate, and for his age a solid SwStr% - in short his hit tool is real. The problem is power. His stocky catcher-body generally portends some will come, but it would be a surprise if he ever hit over 15 HR. There’s some polish to Perez’s receiving game, but he only played 30 games in his stateside debut so (if his recent team suspension is a short one) he’s likely ticketed for a full season of Single-A in 2023. He’ll be a slow burn but if everything comes together it’s easy to say he’ll be a starting catcher. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 5
Emaarion Boyd, OF, 19
An 11th-Round overslot signing in the 2022 Draft for $647K, Boyd is a dynamic athlete. He’s got fantastic speed and has shown an ability to handle CF. His debut was limited but encouraging, and enough to prove that his pitch recognition skills are advanced enough for full-season ball to start 2023. There’s presently little power, but he does have a nice 6’1” frame to build on. Whether the maturation of his body actually aids in developing power is a complete mystery, but having shown an impressive foundation with speed and performance, it’s probably worth the gamble for the hobby. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 5
Marcus Lee Sang, OF, 22
Sang put up a just above league average season with the majority of that at Single-A and then finishing up the year at High-A. He’s a power over hit lefty outfielder with plus 90th exit velocities that goes either pull side or opposite field with his approach. He often runs close to double league average opposite field percentages which aren’t ideal for most power hitters. His strikeout rates run in that 26% - 30% range as well which further cap his potential. He did put up 19 stolen bases in 2022, but I’m skeptical that will translate to the big league level with age and given his build.
Sang doesn’t have the approach to make the juice in his bat impactful enough for an everyday role. The arm will play so he can provide value as a strong side platoon corner outfielder, but I don’t see much more than that. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 4
Pittsburgh Pirates
tier 1
None
tier 2
None
tier 3
Tony Blanco Jr, OF, 17
Son the former 4-time NPB All-Star of the same name, Blanco was hurt for a month of the DSL season and only played 8 games. He was a very highly ranked prospect in his signing period due to his already enormous 6`5, 230 lbs frame that drips with massive power potential, and massive K risk. It’s really the same ceiling as his dad, who made a few BA Top 100 lists before heading to Japan and turning in a few 30+ HR seasons. Hanging so much purely on a bloodline is dangerous, and he hasn’t shown enough on the field yet. But the hobby won’t really care - we’ll see: son of a pro + big bonus + hasn’t proven to be bad = solid prospect. The reality is that we really have no idea. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 6-8
tier none
Braylon Bishop, OF, 20
Bishop was a highly regarded Draft prospect - as a guy with several potential plus tools, I would have been on him if he was in 2021 Bowman Draft. That said, honing his ability to harness his tools was always going to be a project, and his results have been poor thus far. His power hasn’t shown up yet, and to me it’s because he’s been so passive – he literally doesn’t chase anything. That sounds like a good thing – but for a young, raw hitter, you want to see some risk-taking. As he hit just .220 at the Complex, it’s evident that things need to be modified. If we see a drastic approach change, what will it look like? Will it let the rest of his tools play? Or will it just balloon his already somewhat high K%? It is a definite down arrow since being drafted for Bishop, but there’s still hope he can make good on his tools. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 6
Jase Bowen, OF, 22
After struggling at Single-A in 2021, Bowen repeated Single-A for the majority of 2022 and put together a much better looking stat line with a .276 batting average. A majority of the rest of his numbers were pretty similar to 2021, with 14 home runs in 2021 and 2022 at Bradenton, sub 10% walk rates, and 26% - 27% strikeout rate. The main differentiator is the BABIP going from .275 to .356. He did have plus 90th percentile exit velocity ratings that could help with that BABIP, but he was still chasing way too much, especially on breakers out of the zone. Finally, he spent the last month of the season at High-A and was clearly over-matched.
Bradenton has very favorable home run park factors, so you have to be cautious with the home runs that Bowen hit there. Worth watching to see how he handles High-A in 2023, but Greensboro is even more hitter friendly. He’s org depth at this point given the concerning walk and strikeout rates, but there is an outside shot at a power/speed outfielder if you really dream on him. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 4
San Diego Padres
tier 1
None
tier 2
None
tier 3
Daniel Montesino, OF/1B, 19
This is where a great DSL performer who missed a full year of development lands. His profile is just a little limited by a lack of position, but his offensive skills are as good as it gets in the DSL. Or at least….they were…then he underwent Tommy John surgery before last season. Ideally he comes to the Complex this summer and puts all the injury concerns behind him. If he does, he’ll be re-introducing himself as a patient hitter with an advanced feel for translating his raw power into games. It’s likely a hit-over-power profile in the future, and like most teenagers, swing-and-miss needs to be cleaned up. He’s an intriguing name that really just needs his health back to quickly push close to the top of Tier 3. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 6-8
tier none
Nerwilian Cedeno, 2B, 21
This isn’t saying much, but Cedeno has some of the best sleeper potential in the Padres system. He has pull-side juice that he sells out for too often, but if he gets better at making that decision he could be a 15-20 HR bat. Such a choice could boost his hit tool as well, as his swing-and-miss tendencies, in total, are not bad. His poor arm limits him to 2B but he’s a good defender there. What’s most intriguing is that he’s one of only a few belles at the ball, so to speak - Padres fans have to find some minor leaguers to get excited about, right? His case is a pretty easy one. He’ll be showcased at High-A to start the year. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 6
Nick Vogt, OF, 22
The 7th round pick of the Padres in the 2022 MLB Draft out of UC Santa Barbara, Vogt had just 5 games at the Complex after the draft. There wasn’t anything particularly interesting about it, and the at bats I saw were basically showing Vogt having a lot of patience but not swinging at much.
There’s a decent hit tool, some pop, and some speed. A good floor of a 4th/5th outfielder, but probably not much of a ceiling to get beyond that. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 4
San Francisco Giants
tier 1
Kyle Harrison, P, 22
I am going to struggle to keep this blurb short, but I’ll do my best. Ever since former Prospects Live scout Ian Smith and I were diving deep on his 2020 mock draft and we narrowed it down to the Giants likely targeting Harrison, I have been at the forefront of his bandwagon. I love the natural pitchability from a low slot from the left hand side. His mid to high 90’s plus fastball paired with his plus slider coming from the same tunnel creates havoc for hitters. His third pitch is an inconsistent changeup and is the only thing that truly holds him back from a consensus opinion of being a future ace.
Harrison fills up the zone, gets whiffs at a double plus rate, has an elite CSW, and got the second most strikeouts in the minors in 2022 behind Brandon Pfaadt who threw over 40 more innings than Harrison. In my opinion, Harrison is the best left handed pitching prospect in baseball, but there may be some personal bias at play there. At the very least, he’s part of that conversation. Risk 2, Ceiling 9
tier 2
Vaun Brown, OF, 24
Brown split most of the 2022 season between Single-A and High-A and absolutely exceeded any expectations I think anyone could say they had for him as he was completely off of 2022 pre-season Giants prospect lists. Fast forward to the 2023 pre-season and he is regularly considered in the area of a top 10 prospect in the system (11th in our Giants list). Brown hit 23 home runs and stole 44 bases while slashing .346/.437/.623 in 2022. There was a strong BABIP driven context at play, but he was swinging in the zone at a double-plus rate, essentially making his own BABIP luck.
Brown is a muscular dude with a crouched over stance and short swing that allows him to quickly put the bat to the ball. He does chase too much with his aggressive setup which leads to below-average strikeout rates. And that really will be the key to Brown’s development. If he can refine that approach, he’s a future power speed corner outfielder that could put together 25 bombs and 40 steals. If not, he’s more of a fourth outfielder type, but I’m betting he figures it out and am giving him an optimistic ranking (and I freely admit this may be my Giants’ bias talking). Risk 6: Ceiling: 8
tier 3
None
Tier None
None
Seattle Mariners
tier 1
Lazaro Montes, OF, 18
The top 2022 J15 for the Mariners has already shown the $2.5MM bonus was worth it. Very, very, obvious massive raw power that he's already getting to in-game. That’s what the Cuban who seems to now be around 6`5”, 220 lbs brings to the table. Of course, there are a lot of K issues. He was only 17. It’s expected for a player of his size. There’s no focus to how his hit tool will develop, but he didn’t chase pitches out of the zone excessively - that’s a foundational skill to improve on as he continues to just mash, mash, and mash some more.
I don’t think the Complex will be much of a challenge this year in terms of showing power, but let’s see how well he can improve as a complete hitter. As with de Paula, he’s not a player whose defensive value we worry about, but to break it down he’s a corner OF, and might end up limited to DH if his speed decreases as his body mass increases. If it all comes together he’ll be a three true outcomes type with multiple 40+ HR seasons, and I think everyone sees that. He’s a top 10 name in this product, with perhaps the best power ceiling. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 8-10
Gabriel Gonzalez, OF, 19
He’s just an incredibly interesting player for the hobby - there’s no such thing as a safe floor for a 19 YO in Low-A, but I would put his as pretty high in my fantasy world. When prospects are really young, before we see significant professional development, it’s easier to be cavalier in the hobby and exaggerate tools. But once things come into focus a little more in full season ball, there aren’t very many players who it’s easy to see having potential plus hit and potential plus power. Those tend to be Top 100-type prospects. Is Gonzalez definitely a stud of this ilk yet? No. Neither his power or hit are truly showing as plus potential – yet. But it’s there. It’s sleeping in plus exit velocity. It’s sleeping in massive improvements yet to be made in swing decisions, despite a .410 OBP and .468 SLG last year. It’s sleeping in body projection, which is at least 5’11” with strength left to add in his upper half. Gonzalez is not an elite athlete and likely ends up as a corner OF, which should be fine even if he hits the middle of his projections. Despite that rawness to his swing decisions he already has an all fields approach and gets to his power everywhere. He’s already off to a strong start this year at Low-A. It could be coming together more quickly than we all think. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 9
tier 2
Michael Arroyo, SS, 18
If Josue de Paula was the best complete-hitter 17 YO in the DSL, Arroyo wasn’t far behind. He posted a very similar .460 wOBA, and his was underpinned by a better average exit velocity than de Paula. There’s no shame in a .314/.457/.484 slash either. It’s good that he’s already showing some kinda power, because his stout 5’10” frame doesn’t have much growth left. He’s already proven himself to have that ability to make meaningful consistent contact that some DSL bats just never find. His picturesque, compact swing will lead to at least gap-to-gap power with maturity, and coupled with his hit tool, could end up as laser-show like .280 BA / 20 HR-type. He’s knocked down just a little because he isn’t a clear and present HR threat, but he’s quite interesting for the hobby. It’s a quintessential MI body. Not a true SS, but he’ll develop there in hopes he can play either position at higher levels. Arroyo really just needs experience & to continue developing as a hitter - it’s all positive so far. He might be a little bit sleeper-ish price wise at release because there are simply so many other Mariners prospects in this, but even if not, he’s one that’s bound to be worth it. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 6-8
Axel Sanchez, SS, 20
It’s a little sneaky to call Sanchez a riser because he was moved around the organization in 2022, but focus on what he did at Low-A. Everything about Sanchez’s offensive performance there was above average or better except swing-and-miss (which was average). The numbers are eye-popping - .305/.401/.618 with 8 HR in 33 games, a .303 ISO! That’s a small sample, I love seeing it, but there are reasons for doubt – his pull tendencies were those of a raw hitter and he had a 27 K%. So if we’re calling the offensive stats a bit of a lie, here’s a truth – he’s the best defensive SS in the Mariners’ system, and that’s his true carrying tool. Keep in mind he still has some physical growth to go as he heads to a full season of High-A.
If he proves himself to have 80-90% of his offensive output at that more advanced level, well….he’s a near-Top 100 prospect. For me, Sanchez is at a precipice of taking off like a rocket, or fading into the tableau of middling prospects. He’s certainly a target for me in this product. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 7
Robert Perez Jr, 1B, 22
Perez has been hanging around in the Mariners system since 2017 working toward making that big performance jump, and it finally happened in 2022. It might be surprising to see Perez this low considering the outstanding 27 HR, .288/.398/.523 season he just had. And as the winner of the AFL HR Derby, his significant power potential is front and center. But follow me here. Perez will be 23 in June and only has 153 PA at High-A (though he starts 2023 at AA). Positionally he’s 1B-only. His contact rate was below average, especially when you compare age to level. I don’t know if totaling this all together equals a red flag, but shall we call it yellow?
With so much pro experience it’s fair to throw out a major league comp, and the best case for Perez is something like Carlos Santana. In the hobby landscape, that isn’t all that significant. He’s a nice collectible name - don’t get me wrong. His arrow is definitely trending up, but temper expectations on just how far up he can go. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 6
tier 3
Prelander Berroa, P, 22
Swords. For. Days. Those are the three words that best describe Berroa’s highlights. He has two pitches that are double-plus at their best. His fastball is a top-of-the-scale pitch that usually sits around 96 MPH with 20” of IVB. To put that in perspective, Gerrit Cole and Dylan Cease are the only MLB starters with that much velocity and type of movement. His primary pitch, though, is a slider that moves in the exact opposite direction. It generated an incredible amount of whiffs and chase last year. All told he had the 3rd-highest K rate in all the minors last year among pitchers with 100 IP.
So why isn’t he as high as Wilmer Flores or Kyle Harrison? Well…his command is several notches below and those are really his only two pitches of any quality. It’s a concern that limits his ceiling to something like a high strikeout five-and-dive SP, and given his shorter stature there’s just a ton of bullpen risk. But let’s look at that in hobby terms. A dominant closer isn’t the worst thing - Josh Hader does decently, for instance. Berroa has the stuff to be that high-leverage reliever with just a little more development, so he’s squarely in Tier 3. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 5
tier none
Josh Hood, SS, 22
Senior signs don’t typically end up doing well in the hobby. However, it’s a little different for the pandemic-impacted talents, especially Hood who essentially had two seasons wiped out since he was at an Ivy League School in 2020-21. He’s a surefire MLB-quality defender at 3B and has plenty of arm and range to handle middle infield spots. His best tool is his above-average power and he even has generally good plate discipline. That said, making consistent quality contact has always been an issue. If he can clean it up and show he can get to power as a pro, he could rise to a utility role quickly. He’ll need to in order to be relevant for the hobby, as he’s already 23 in July. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 5
Martin Gonzalez, SS, 18
Gonzalez has the least hobby projection of any of the poor DSL performers. He does have a future potential plus glove, but he lacks the speed to go with it that would help him a little bit in the eyes of the hobby. His other tools are simply poor at present, with very little power projection. He’s also already seeing significant time at 2B, so his ability to stick as a SS may also be in question. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 2-4
St. Louis Cardinals
tier 1
None
tier 2
None
tier 3
Luis Rodriguez, C, 18
Really young offense-first catchers are tough to gauge, and that’s what Rodriguez is. If he sticks at the position – as he definitely has the chance to – the path to the majors is normally slower. It’s a consideration the hobby doesn’t take lightly, and for a player like this that’s raw to begin with, it’s a detriment to collectibility. Anyhow, Rodriguez did really well in limited action, getting to some of his projected above average power in-game, and hitting over .300. He only walked 6 times in 101 PAs, so like many others, his free-swinging tendencies will need to be cut down as he advances. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 5-7
tier none
Samil De La Rosa, 2B, 19
De La Rosa has hit the entirety of his pro career. It’s never fair to dismiss an 18 YO’s power when his ISO was north of .200, but it’s best to consider that as a product of his hit tool playing well at a lower level of baseball. His raw power is below average, but it’s clear he has a knack for getting to some in game. He’s only 5’8” and already has a thick lower half so that power we saw at the Complex is close to his max. The optimistic projection is that he’s a MLB-starting 2B as a .340 OBP / 10 HR type, but it’s most likely he ends up as a utility-type without a true carrying tool. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 4
Tampa Bay Rays
tier 1
Junior Caminero, 3B, 19
Caminero is everything a prospector dreams of. Double-plus power potential. Feel to hit at a young age. Placement at an advanced level of the minors. You’d get no argument from me if you want to call him the top name in this release - he clearly has superstar potential. The Rays acquired Caminero in 2021 from the Guardians for Tobias Myers, an absolute steal.
Let’s look at his power first. Caminero began by hitting 11 HR across the Complex and Low-A, then went to Australia for the winter and hit 14 more. That 25 HR total in 2022-23 leagues is more than any other teen in professional baseball, period. By a margin of three. It’s all backed up by the exit velocities he’s posted as well. His .314/.384/.498 with a 18 K% indicates his hit tool is also advanced. And it is advanced - for his age - but that’s where he has the most work to do. It’s not concerning yet, but his swing-and-miss rate was fairly high due to his tendency to chase too much. As you can imagine he’s very physically strong already, and though he’s outgrown SS, he still easily has the arm for 3B. He’ll have to work to stick there, but for us, in the hobby, it's of lesser importance. His exceptional performance in the ABL made it an easy decision to assign him to begin High-A this year, where he’s already off to a hot start. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 10
tier 2
Brock Jones, OF, 22
Taken with the 66th overall pick in the 2nd round of the Draft last year, there’s only one thing holding him back from calling him a high-ceiling, 5-tool bat: a propensity for swing-and-miss. It’s a full yellow flag situation that was an issue even at Stanford, and one to watch out to see if he can improve. He’s new-ish to focusing solely on baseball so there’s definite rawness to that part of his game. His fringy arm should play in CF, but the other three tools are not in doubt. He’s a plus runner and there's a projection that it will translate better to SBs as he develops as a base-runner. What we’re most interested in for the hobby, his power, is also a plus raw tool. He gets to a good amount of it already, and If he takes a leap forward as a hitter it’s likely he gets to even more.
There’s a definite rawness to be had with Jones, and reason to think there’s some malleability with his molding. He’s not a guy to be ignored in the hobby - the best case is that everything starts to click within a year and he becomes a true 5-Tool CF. There’s the downside that he never makes enough contact, but hey, feel free to ignore him if you think he trends that way. More for me. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 8
Xavier Isaac, 1B, 19
Power, more power, and all the power. Isaac has the raw power that forces your eyes open wide when seeing him connect the bat to the ball. Isaac was probably the most surprising first round pick in the 2022 MLB draft, but since it was the Rays, it makes you wonder what they know and we do not. The hit tool is questionable and the defensive profile is first base/designated hitter, putting a lot of weight on that hit tool to be good enough for the position. He’s a taller kid that’s looked to have had some bad weight on him in the past, but there does seem to be some of that being knocked off with how he’s looking in early 2023. Regardless, speed on the basepaths is not something to expect from Isaac.
Is Isaac a potential Matt Olson type, or is he more in that C.J. Cron/Luke Voit/Justin Bour spectrum? There’s very little to go on at this point, so this is sticking a finger in the air and guessing which way the wind will be blowing in the future. With the draft pedigree, a strong dev org potentially turning the raw clay into Olson gold, and the most important hobby tool, natural and easy power, I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt with a Tier 2 ranking. This is very much a caveat emptor as we just don’t have much of anything to give confidence in any sort of ranking. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 8
tier 3
None
Tier None
Ronny Simon, 2B/3B, 22
2018 International Free Agency signing of the Cubs and traded to the Diamondbacks as part of a 2020 deadline trade for Andrew Chafin (who’s back with Arizona) and then traded after the 2021 season to the Rays for Jordan Luplow.
Simon spent about two-thirds of last season at Single-A and finished up the remainder of the season at High-A. He hit .260 with a .303 OBP, 22 home runs, and 24 stolen bases across both levels in 2022. As you can see, the OBP is an issue with a 5% walk rate in Single-A and a 7% walk rate in High-A, which is not great. His strikeout rates weren’t bad, so it really is him swinging at a lot and making contact with a lot of pitches, even if it isn’t quality contact.
There’s a floor of a high energy, utility infielder that can provide speed and lots of contact off the bench. Given his smaller stature, I’m not sure if the power is more than average when he gets to the big leagues, regardless of the gaudy totals he put up in 2022. So while his floor is decent, his ceiling isn’t likely much higher than his floor. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 5
Texas Rangers
tier 1
Gleider Figuereo, 3B, 19
Figuereo had a decent but unremarkable DSL season in 2021 before taking the Complex by storm in 2022. He slashed .280/.363/.616 with 9 home runs and 7 stolen bases in just 35 games. That’s averaging one home run every 14 at bats, which is elite level type stuff. He looks well put together physically and has good bat speed with some athleticism in the box to engage his raw power. There was some passivity and occasional challenges with spin that I saw, but that is pretty standard for teenage hitters.
2023 will be his first year of full-season ball and it will be quite interesting to see how much the trending arrow keeps skyrocketing up following his 2022 season. There’s a lot to like and even more to dream on with Figuereo. He’s a volatile Tier 1 ranking given his lack of full season experience, but I would love to spend some of my hobby dollars on him. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 9
tier 2
None
tier 3
Tommy Specht, OF, 18
The Rangers 6th Round pick last year, Specht was signed away from a Kentucky commitment for a slightly overslot 415K. He’ll only be 18 for the first half of this season, so it’s not at all worrisome that he didn’t receive an initial assignment to Low-A. It wasn’t due to lack of physicality – he has good strength and speed with some projection remaining in his 6`3” frame. His swing at present is geared for power, but that may have to be adjusted to be more contact-oriented, as he struggled against upper-level competition. He’s shown improvement at pitch identification but in total his hit tool needs a lot of refinement.
Specht is very much a project pick that won’t be a quick riser in the system. Still, his ceiling is a future toolsy MLB-quality CF. He’s a perfect example of the power + athleticism + youth formula that’ll never be slept on by the hobby. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 7
Blaine Crim, 1B, 25
Crim continues to impress with his offensive approach and results after not having much prospect status. After hitting 29 home runs between High-A and Double-A in 2021, he hit 24 home runs in Double-A in 2022. The Texas League, where the Rangers Double-A Frisco team plays, does tend to have some hitter friendly numbers, but it’s still impressive to see that from Crim, a shorter stature 1B/DH-only profile.
He’s essentially a below average walk rate, plus strikeout rate, above average power, zero speed 1B/DH player with no draft or hobby pedigree. One RoboScout comp that stood out to me is Luke Voit, and I can see Crim ending up delivering similar results at the MLB level, which would be a big win from a Rangers perspective. Since it’s the power that’s driving his profile, and there were things I liked seeing on the data front (plus 90th EV), I’m optimistically sticking Crim into Tier 3, but that is likely his ceiling. Risk: 3 Ceiling: 5
tier none
Alejandro Osuna, OF, 20
2020 International Free Agency signing out of Mexico as an older 18-year-old and the younger brother of Roberto Osuna. Given Osuna’s age at signing, he was thrown straight into Single-A ball in 2021 and struggled mightily. Fast forward to 2022 when he again was assigned to Single-A and he was a lot more successful. A .308/.394/.451 slash line with a plus strikeout rate (16%) and an above average walk rate (11%). In addition, he hit 8 home runs and swiped 32 bags. He was promoted to High-A for 21 games to finish off the season and while he continued to make contact, the numbers aren’t as impressive all around.
A slightly stocky build and an arm that isn’t good enough for right field probably restricts him to left field as his primary position. That concern coupled with just average power will likely keep Osuna’s ceiling around a 4th outfielder type. He’s gone from a non-prospect to a player that could figure as a future major leaguer, but it’s not enough to get him out of Tier None yet. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 4
Andres Mesa, 2B, 20
Mesa is a hit-over-power infielder who is much too free of a swinger. When he connects it’s good contact – the problem is that there just isn’t enough. It’s worrisome that there doesn’t seem to be any improvement to his profile from his 2021 season in the DSL, but in real life it’s still fair to chalk it up to being raw. In the hobby, this is a player to avoid - his ceiling is not in focus, but he has a small frame and doesn’t figure to hit for much power even if it does eventually all come together. Furthermore, he’s locked into 2B positionally so it’s going to have to be that hit tool that carries him. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 3
Toronto Blue Jays
tier 1
None
tier 2
Manuel Beltre, SS, 18
Beltre had cards in 2021 Bowman Chrome so he doesn’t get a write-up, but he bears note here because his first Bowman autographs come in this set. He would fall in the middle third of Tier 2 if we were evaluating, pretty much right above Gabriel Martinez.
Gabriel Martinez, OF, 20
Piggybacking on a solid but powerless stateside debut in 2021, everything trended up for Martinez in 2022. He was able to transition his advanced feel to hit to game power across two levels, ending at High-A where he’ll look to continue this year. Striking out has never been a problem for him – he’s never been over 17%. But it’s the quality of contact that increased dramatically last year, slugging a very respectable .477 with 37 XBH in 96 games. It’s a case of his hit tool progressing enough to access most of his raw power, rather than being the tip of an iceberg. He doesn’t post great exit velocity. There’s also a lot of room yet to improve on his tendency to chase, but if that happens and he continues to access the power he has, it’ll read as a plus hit tool with fringy power.
That’s easily an MLB regular. This type of rising profile from a young player is intriguing for the hobby, but his power doesn’t figure to be his main asset and he doesn’t possess otherworldly athleticism, so he falls well into Tier 2. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 6
tier 3
Enmanuel Bonilla, OF, 17
2023 International Free Agency signing of the Blue Jays out of the Dominican Republic for $4.1M.
There’s very little video of Bonilla out there besides him mashing batting practice meatballs and he has yet to even play in a DSL game given that he was just signed this January. The power looks real, but there are questions on how real the hit tool is or isn’t, especially in relation to facing breaking stuff. There are also defensive questions as he may best fit at left field which will put more pressure on the bat.
Ultimately he came in as a consensus top 10 International Free Agent in this most recent class and landed in the Top 10 of our Blue Jays Top 30 list in the Prospects Live Scouting Handbook (which included the most recent J15 class while the original site lists did not). That’s easily enough for a Tier 3 ranking and in consideration for Tier 2, but the unknowns are too high for me to put him there at this moment. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 7-9
tier none
Hayden Juenger, P, 22
Juenger has moved quickly through the Jays’ system since being drafted in the 6th Round in 2021. He gets great deception from his three-quarters arm slot coupled with his shorter stature. It makes his fastball and slider play up as, at their best, plus offerings. Throughout his time in the minors, he has lacked enough command to ever be more than a five-and-dive type starter (he maxed out at 4 IP last year), so was moved to the bullpen for his promotion to AAA for the second half of 2022. It really makes a lot of sense. It’s very likely he will make it to the majors as a multi-inning reliever this year. It’s good for him, and it’s very apparent he has the present skill to be an asset to an MLB team, but for the hobby it’s not a profile that does well outside of team collectors. Risk: 2 Ceiling: 3
Luis Garcia INF, 19
After putting up a strong hitting performance in the DSL in his debut 2021 season, Garcia struggled in his first attempt stateside at the Complex in 2022. His batting average dropped over 100 points down towards the Mendoza line at .201 while almost doubling his strikeout rate from 13% to 25%. There is some speed as he has put up 11 and 12 stolen bases in 26 and 43 games respectively. Looking at the data, nothing besides a plus zone swing rate stands out.
While after 2021 there was some buzz with Garcia as a potential hit tool guy with the ability to play on the left side of the diamond and decent speed, 2022 has really taken the bloom off the rose. At this point, he looks more like a future utility guy rather than an everyday starter, and lacking any power currently or in the future given his smaller size, it caps his ceiling significantly. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 3
Yhoangel Aponte, OF, 19
Aponte was a 330K-bonus 2021 J15 signee who debuted stateside in 2022, but other than hitting the ball hard a few times, it just hasn’t gone well for him. Having good raw power doesn’t do a player any good without a path to getting to it in-game. He was very undisciplined and didn’t make enough hard contact to make up for it. He’ll give the Complex another go this year to see if his good speed and ability to play a solid CF can be put to use at higher levels. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 3
Washington Nationals
tier1, tier 2, tier 3, tier none
None. Sorry Nats fans. No 1st’s for you in this release. But you do still have Elijah Greene autos to chase.
And there it is baseball card collectors. The first Bowman preview article featuring the combined efforts of our baseball card duo here at Prospects Live. It’s all about the prospects with 1st Bowman cards in the product and that is where we put all the focus for this new and improved version.