Written by: Brandon Smith and Jackson Thomas
We are now just over a week removed from the 2022 draft and reported signing bonuses continue to trickle in ahead of the August 1st deadline. With each bonus, we are reminded of the importance that under slot deals have in the major league draft. The basic premise of an under-slot deal is to allow teams to acquire the maximum amount of talent, while staying within the confines of their respective bonus pool. Under-slot deals in the early rounds may allow teams to float higher priced prospects down the draft board, and vice versa, where under slot deals can be made in the later rounds of the draft in order to save money. This strategy can create a tremendous amount of surplus value for the drafting organization.
When reflecting on any given draft from the public perspective, the majority of the attention is paid to the success of players selected in the early rounds of the draft. What is often neglected is the success that organizations have with selecting talent past the fifth round. Take for example an organization that selects a player in the 19th round and then signs them for $10,000. If that organization is able to take a player that is viewed as an organizational filler, and is able to develop them into a prospect that holds major league value, the drafting organization in return acquires a great deal of surplus value. The player may then provide value to their current club's 40-man roster, or could be used as an asset to acquire additional resources that fill a need on the major league roster from outside the organization. Organizations that are able to hit on later round picks through data driven analysis or structured player development plans, allows the club to foster a rich pipeline of prospect capital. In return, this creates more flexibility in roster construction and in the player acquisition realm.
The last element to consider is the monetary component that draft picks incur. It’s great to hit on the higher slot prospects in the early rounds, but in some cases the cost per WAR (Wins Above Replacement) costs more in the early rounds than the later rounds. In this article, we will be taking a deep dive into players who were selected in the fifth round or later in the 2022 draft who have the chance to be future value picks for their respective organizations. Without further ado, here is a look at one prospect that was selected by each organization that has the chance to produce major league value at a minimal marginal cost.
American League East
Baltimore Orioles
Doug Hodo III (6th Round, $305,000)
Baltimore had one of the largest bonus pools in the history of the draft, which ultimately allowed the club to add depth to an already deep farm system. One of the more fundamentally sound up the middle players in the class is Texas Longhorn center fielder Doug Hodo III. In his tool box, Hodo possesses a bunch of fringe to average tools which rounds him into an overall solid ball player. He shows bat to ball ability with some power sprinkled in, with the defensive instincts to stick in centerfield. Hodo has the ceiling to be a quality bench piece on an Orioles team that figures to contend for the next decade.
Boston Red Sox
RHP Alex Hoppe (6th Round, $32,250)
Hoppe, a fifth year senior out of UNC Greensboro has a loud fastball/slider mix. From an analytical standpoint, his fastball (95-98) has plus hop, and is an effective offering up in the zone. He pairs his fastball with a slider that has sweeper traits, as he consistently generates a considerable amount of horizontal movement to the glove side. Hoppe’s arsenal is coveted by analysts, and is a profile many organizations are chasing/developing amongst their relievers. He repeats his delivery well and is a strike thrower, despite having a max effort delivery. All in all, he profiles as a reliever in pro-ball, with the chance to blossom into a late inning option.
New York Yankees
LHP Will Brian (10th Round, $57,500)
Seasoned veteran out of Eastern Kentucky, the twenty-three year old southpaw struck out 33% of the batters he faced on the season. There is a little bit of Will Smith (pitcher) in Brian, as he has a riding mid-90’s fastball with a sharp 12-6 curveball. He posted a gaudy 60% whiff% with the curveball this season. To add additional spice, opponents posted a .135 AVG with a .180 SLG against him on the year. Listed at 5”11, Brian’s over the top release creates deception for opposing hitters, which allows for him to execute his riding fastball and overhand top to bottom breaking ball.
Tampa Bay Rays
RHP Duncan Davitt (18th Round, $25,000)
Tampa has become accustomed to acquiring pitchers with unique arm angles in order to disrupt hitter’s timing. The long levered Davitt is no exception, as he has a funky side arm delivery that creates plenty of deception for opposing hitters. Despite having a low release, his fastball (90-94) plays extremely well up in the zone due in large part to a flat approach angle and nearly 7-foot extension. During the spring, batters posted a .000 BAA with a 42% whiff% on pitches in the upper third/shadow zone of the plate, which speaks to the deception of the fastball. Davitt’s profile paired with the Rays pitching development appears to be a perfect pairing for the four-year Iowa Hawkeye.
Toronto Blue Jays
RHP Devereaux Harrison (9th Round, $122,500)
A Long Beach State product, Harrison relies heavily on a fastball and slider. Both offerings have the potential to develop into plus pitches and play out of a major league bullpen. The fastball is a low release, high hop four-seamer paired with a sweeping slider. Harrison’s arsenal fits the Blue Jays development mold from an analytical perspective. The progression of his slider into a more consistent sweeper will be interesting to follow, as the Blue Jays have had a run on recent success stories with pitchers developing the patented Toronto Sweeper.
American League Central
Chicago White Sox
Billy Seidl (15th Round, $100,000)
Seidl was used in a variety of roles during the spring season at Duke. He appeared as a starter and as a middle/late inning reliever. He shows three pitches, a rising fastball, sweeping slider and a devilish changeup. His fastball profiles more as a rise and run heater, with a flat approach angle. Paired with his fastball is a crisp sweeping slider that generates plenty of uncomfortable swings/takes by opposing hitters. The changeup kills a significant amount of depth off of his fastball, and is utilized best down in the zone with its late tumbling/fading action. Both off-speed pitches are effective swing and miss pitches (47% slider whiff%, 37% changeup whiff%).There is work to be done with his overall command, but the shape of his pitches is compelling moving forward. Seidl’s most likely long term home is as a reliever, but given his experience as a starter and his pitch mix, it’s worth rolling the dice and giving him the chance to start.
Cleveland Guardians
Pres Cavenaugh (14th Round, NA)
The Guardians offense currently leads the major leagues with an 81% contact rate. It is evident that the organization places a heavy emphasis on contact% in their internal models when drafting. Look no further in 2022 than Chase DeLauter, Nate Furman and Pres Cavenaugh. Cavenaugh has plus bat to ball skills, as he posted a 90% contact rate this spring. In addition to the contact skills, Cavenaugh has quick hands which contributes to his bat speed, which allows for him to turn on pitches and drive the ball to his pull side. He is a serviceable defender in the outfield with plus legs, and has an avenue to rise through the Guardians system as a 4th outfielder type.
Detroit Tigers
RHP Patrick Pridgen (15th Round, $125,000)
Brandon Smith identified Pridgen as a mid-major breakout in the early stages of the season and his analysis was right on the money! Mentioned before, Pridgen’s velocity gains turned him into an absolute K monster this year at FIU. His fastball command was honed and he was better able to move his sinker in and out of the zone. Pridgen has a raw feel to generate spin with a sharp two plane slider that flashes potential for a quality strikeout offering. The projection is limited because of age but if you buy into the gaudy strikeout numbers you’re looking at a potential backend starter with 3-4 serviceable pitches.
Kansas City Royals
INF/OF Javier Vaz (15th Round, $125,000)
Vaz demonstrates a high on-base and bat to ball approach (90% contact%) and is a threat to run once on the bases. He has a bit of sneaky pop in his game, which is created by his twitchiness and bat speed he possesses in the box. At Vanderbilt, he played all over the diamond for Coach Corbin which speaks to his athleticism. He profiles similarly to former Commodores Tony Kemp when taking into account his 5’9 frame, defensive versatility, and bat to ball skills. Player’s like Vaz hold value in an organization and there is a path for him to be a quality bench option for a major league club moving forward.
Minnesota Twins
RHP Cory Lewis (9th Round, $140,000 )
Lewis has all the makings of being a starter in pro-ball, as he commands a four-pitch mix. He is a strike thrower and repeats his over-the top release, which measures close to 7 feet at front foot strike. His arsenal fits his release traits, as he is equipped with a riding 4-seamer (24” IVB), a sharp 12-6 breaking ball as well as a gyro shaped slider. Albeit he is a lefty, the Twins acquired a similar profile in Steve Hajjar in 2021, which suggests that the Twins feel comfortable acquiring pitchers with outlier release heights.
American League West
Houston Astros:
1B/OF Zach Dezenzo (12th Round, $125,000)
The easy choice for the Astros would be Nolan DeVos, as he is someone the Prospects Live team has been high on for quite some time. However, the more compelling pick is Zach Dezenzo, an Ohio State product. Dezenzo is no stranger to loud contact, as his plus bat speed frequently generates batted ball outputs greater than 102 MPH. The knock on Dezenzo is his free swinging approach and the inability to recognize spin and handle breaking pitches. There is plenty of work to be done at refining his approach and cutting back on the swing and miss, something the Astros are good at correcting with their young hitters. The upside at the plate combined with the Astros development system could make for a dynamite pairing.
Los Angeles Angels:
LHP Sammy Natera (17th Round, $125,000)
Natera fits the basic checklist of desirable modern pitching traits with a flat VAA, lower release, and high rise fastballs. While Natera’s fastballs lack prominent velocity, they play up a level because of their traits. Furthermore, Natera understands this and throws his fastballs in a high target zone at a high clip. 17” of rise is more above average than what the movement metric tells independently, as it’s contextualized with a low release. Natera’s primary secondary is a tight two plane slider that projects as a quality offering. There are shades of Andrew Heany mechanically in Natera and hopefully the Angels can refine Natera to be a quality big league pitching piece.
Oakland Athletics:
RHP Jake Pfennigs (13th Round, $125,000)
Getting Jake Pfennigs in round 13 should automatically be a felony as he had no right to be there for a team to pick up. Pfennigs is a true sinker baller with gaudy sink metrics. Athletic mover who works strongly down hill, Pfennigs has an outlier release height that assists in creating a downhill plane that leads to an abundance of ground balls. Additionally he shows a great feel to spin a breaking ball, posting well above average spin rates with weak batted ball contact. He embodies the profile of a backend starter that Oakland has had success with as he fills up the zone with ease and is a strong competitor. Pfennigs won’t ever be a sexy pitcher constantly getting strikeouts, but the package he offers is unique and projects well for pro ball.
Seattle Mariners
LHP Brandon Schaeffer (18th Round, $100,000)
Mariners, plus college pitchers usually raise eyebrows in intrigue for a fun pairing. Let alone a pitcher deprived of velocity but drowning in raw fun pitch metrics. Schaeffer deals a low release fastball with high spin and insane arm side run, nearly 20” of it. His slider is near straight gyro with elite spin, making him even more unique. Schaeffer is going to thrive in the Mariners gas camp and has legitimate back end reliever upside. This is a player development match made in heaven.
Texas Rangers
LHP Kohl Drake (11th Round, $175,000)
The Walters State CC product had one of the best strikeout to walk rates in the country as he fanned 160, while only issuing 17 free passes. Drake currently is more of a pitchability lefty, with a fastball that sits 89-93 and fills the strike zone. His bread and butter are his two secondary offerings. Drake’s curveball is a big 12-6 breaker that has plenty of depth late. The changeup has good tumble and fading action to the arm side. There still is room for projection and has all the traits to be a starter in the Ranger’s system.