Grading out the MLB Draft can always be a little bit tricky. Money is a big part of it and it’s not always about taking the best player available. On top of that, “grading” is subjective and determining who had a successful draft won’t likely be truly possible for another four years. That said, a handful of teams jumped off the page as potential winners from this chair. These teams not only landed players with upside and tools, they focused on profiles I believe they’ll have the easiest time maximizing.
Atlanta Braves
20) Owen Murphy, RHP, Riverside-Brookfield HS
35) JR Ritchie, RHP, Bainbridge HS
57) Cole Phillips, RHP, Boerne HS
76) Blake Burkhalter, RHP, Auburn
I’m a huge believer in the Braves ability to develop arms, and especially from the high school ranks. Much of their competitive window has come by way of developing arms, and the hurlers they drafted this year really possess standout traits. Murphy fits the Spencer Strider profile with impressive athleticism and the ability to really backspin a fastball. He’ll live at the top of the zone missing bats. Murphy can really spin it too, and has a track record filling up the strike zone, avoiding self-induced damage. Ritchie is similar. He doesn’t walk batters and has great feel for a potential plus slider. Ritchie has been up to 97 and has shown the ability to throw five pitches. It’ll be interesting to see what arsenal he sticks with as a pro. Phillips is a pure talent lottery ticket, a righty up to 100 mph before his UCL blew out. The key there will be developing a consistent breaking ball and/or changeup; something he wasn’t yet able to achieve before injuring. Burkhalter is one of my favorite relief prospects in this class with an explosive fastball and a diabolical cutter/slider. He could move extremely quick.
Toronto Blue Jays
23) Brandon Barriera, LHP, American Heritage HS
60) Josh Kasevich, SS, Oregon
77) Tucker Toman, SS, Hammond HS
78) Cade Doughty, 2B, Louisiana State
The Blue Jays drafted a bit of upside, but I think more importantly they drafted a bunch of surefire big leaguers. Barriera certainly has the highest ceiling, and given they’ve turned Ricky Tiedemann into a bonafide stud, I think achieving the same with Barriera should be feasible. Barriera is up to 99 with a sinking fastball, a slider that flashes plus and sits solid average, adding in a show-me changeup that can be tough on righty bats thanks to its tunnel. Barriera is a better athlete than Tiedemann was at this stage, so I’m excited to see where this goes. Kasevich makes fantastic swing decisions and has some of the most impressive pure bat-to-ball skills in this class. He’s got sneaky raw power with gaudy exit velocities, but Kasevich has struggled to lift the ball with authority. If you can add some loft here, Kasevich has a chance to flirt with 25 homer power. He’s probably just a fringe-average defensive shortstop, but his skills would play beautifully elsewhere on the dirt. Much of the same can be said about Doughty. It’s a mature approach and a pro at-bat each and every time out. It’s probably just fringe-average power with the chance to hit ~18 homers per year as a pro, but he’s getting to most of that already thanks to a sound bat-path and an all-fields approach. Doughty could move quickly as a second base prospect. I love the Toman pick. It’ll be interesting what he costs and how much he’ll hamstring the Jays in later rounds. Still, you’re talking about a switch-hitter with thunderous bat speed from the left side and the ability to hit for average as a righty. Toman should slide over to third base where his range plays best.
Oakland Athletics
19) Daniel Susac, C, Arizona
56) Henry Bolte, OF, Palo Alto HS
69) Clark Elliott, OF, Michigan
I thought the Athletics nailed this draft. You land the best pure catching prospect in the class (provided Kevin Parada has to move off the position) with a big bat to boot. Susac checks virtually every box metrically at the plate. He’ll need to work to lay off sliders off the plate, but that’s low-hanging fruit for a development program. Susac has a shot to hit .265 with 25 homer power as a pro. Bolte will be expensive, but if Oakland is confident they can sign him, I love the pick. He’s one of the few 5-tool players available in this class not taken in the Top 5 picks. Bolte could end up being the steal of the draft. Elliott is simply a pro. The kid can really hit. He’s got tools in the field and can handle any of the three outfield roles. If Oakland is able to provide him 500 plate appearances in a season, there’s .270/.330/.420 upside here with 16-20 homer power.
Colorado Rockies
10) Gabriel Hughes, RHP, Gonzaga
31) Sterlin Thompson, OF, Florida
38) Jordan Beck, OF, Tennessee
50) Jackson Cox, RHP, Toutle Lake HS
I thought the Rockies did a great job of drafting what they develop well, including players that should thrive at Coors Field. Hughes is a power-slider guy and the team has done well developing players that lean on that pitch to get outs. He’s a good athlete, up to 97 on the bump. Developing a consistent fastball shape will be key moving forward with Hughes. Still, the true weapon here is the ability to spin it and that alone should get him to his mid-rotation ceiling. Thompson is everything you look for in a big leaguer. He can play third base or right field, and throws together truly advanced at-bats. He can handle velocity, he can handle spin, he lays off the changeup and uses all fields. Unlocking more loft with Thompson will be the key in raising his ceiling. The bat path is flat, but he’s got the bat speed to tap into 25-homer power. On the other side of the coin, Beck could develop into a 40-homer guy in Colorado. I don’t entirely trust the hit tool, but even if he’s a .240 guy that runs into 30 homers regularly as a pro, that’s an enormous value. He’s got sneaky athleticism too that should be an asset in right field. Cox can really, really spin a baseball and, for my money, had one of the better prep breaking balls in the class. He’s also been up to 97 and possesses the arm speed and athleticism to suggest he could go higher. Cox will need to develop more command as he ages, but this is first round clay.