2022 Bowman Baseball kicks off the core prospect releases for 2022. There are three core releases every year - Bowman Baseball, Bowman Chrome, and Bowman Draft. These three products contain the most desirable cards in the hobby because they carry the “1st Bowman” logo to denote a prospect’s first official prospect card.
When the checklist was released, there was a collective feeling of disappointment within the hobby for the lack altogether of Jack Leiter, the second overall pick in the 2021 MLB draft and arguably the Texas Rangers’ top pitching prospect. To a lesser degree, the lack of a Brady House autograph, who had his 1st Bowman base card in 2021 Bowman Draft, also stung as collectors were hoping to get his first official autographed card. On the other hand, there are plenty of high-end prospects on the checklist and 135 players all told with some form of a 1st Bowman card in the product.
DESIGN
Reiterating my commentary from This Week in Baseball Cards on the design - the base card design is just over half a border, somewhat reminiscent of the 2019 Bowman design from border coverage perspectives. I tend to prefer the full border, especially with what we got in 2020. It makes centering more difficult to tell from the naked eye, although the back of the card should be able to help in that regard. Player name and team logo are large across the bottom of the card and easy to read as usual, which is always nice and worth mentioning given how Topps did not do that well with 2021 Topps Flagship. Interesting to note is that we get the RayWave parallels here for the first time in a regular release (there were Lite exclusives in 2021 products that had them).
Various inserts are going to be found, some standard fare and some specific to this release. Standard fare includes ROY favorites and Bowman Scouts Top 100. Specific to this release are Hi-Fi Futures, which reminds me of 2021 Bowman’s Best Masterpieces but not as good, Virtuosic Vibrations, which looks like the player was dropped in a puddle of water, and Bowman in 3-D which is a horizontal insert with an interesting fading perspective of squares that my Local Card Pod co-host Ryan Rygiel says looks good in hand since he’s gotten some retail already. Bowman Invicta is another insert that we saw in 2021 Bowman Draft and gets another go in 2022 Bowman - thick stock cards that I heard plenty of people were fans of in 2021, but not really anything interesting for my personal aesthetic.
CONFIGURATIONS
There are two hobby configurations:
Hobby box - guarantees 1 auto and is $375 - $400 pre-sale per box; Topps selling direct at $299.99.
Jumbo Hobby box - guarantees 3 autos and is $775 - $800 pre-sale per box; Topps does not sell Jumbo Hobby boxes direct.
Retail formats are never really announced, but we have already seen Blaster/Value boxes in the wild and for sale direct from Walmart. Expect there to potentially be cello packs and retail packs going off of past years’ experiences.
THE MAIN ATTRACTION
When it comes to prospect products, the 1st Bowman logo is hobby catnip. For better or worse, the hobby values that logo above all else in the prospect world and thus it is truly the main attraction. Below is my breakdown of each player that should have a 1st logo in 2022 Bowman Baseball given the checklist released by Topps. And here we go…
PROSPECT TIER BREAKDOWN
I have broken down these “1st” prospects into four tiers based on a combination of my perception of hobby interest and my own personal long-term hobby outlook. As I always say, prospects are the most volatile and highest risk/reward part of the hobby. Finally, real life baseball value, fantasy baseball value, and hobby value aren’t always the same. Keep all of those things in mind as you read my breakdown when formulating your own tiers and evaluations, and as you are buying boxes, singles, and into breaks for 2022 Bowman Baseball.
Tier 1 - Cream of the crop. Combination of high-end Hit and Power tools that won’t end up as full-time designated hitters. Power/Speed combo players. Elite SP 1 pitchers (very rare). Potential for being perennial All-Stars and award winners.
Tier 2 - Bats that may lack in a certain area such as top-end power, three true outcomes players, maybe great real life/fantasy players, but not hobby-elite, or tantalizing raw talents. High-end SP 2 pitchers with additional positive factors such as team, arsenal, pedigree, etc.
Tier 3 - May have some hobby interest due to a single factor such as prospect pedigree, team interest, general hobby hype, an interesting carrying tool, etc.
Tier None - The likelihood of widespread short-term hobby interest, and most likely long-term as well, is close to none. Plenty of pitchers, catchers, role players, hit tool only bats, Quad-A power bats, defense-first players, etc. to be found here. Hobby lottery tickets where the odds are stacked against you.
*Catchers and Pitchers are often knocked down a tier just due to their position.
TIER ONE
Elly De La Cruz - SS (Reds, 1st Base and Auto) - As I begin writing up Elly De La Cruz's blurb, all I can really think is that I'm not quite sure what to do with my hands. His main concern at the moment is the hit tool with the swing and miss given his aggressive approach. But the rest of his game is plus to double plus across the board headlined by his absolute mammoth power. I've seen multiple home runs from De La Cruz that were on the hands or excuse me pokes to the opposite field. And when he does get a hold of one in the groove, it’s not going to land until it gets out of the stadium. Add in double plus speed, a plus arm, and at least above average defense at shortstop and it's impossible for me to keep him out of Tier 1. His frame and game are eerily reminiscent of Oneil Cruz and you will see this comp regularly. If he can turn his wild aggression into controlled aggression, this is a potential elite player.
Kahlil Watson - SS (Marlins, 1st Base and Auto) - The Marlins 1st round pick in 2021 at 16th overall and one of the big 4 prep shortstops among a larger group of ridiculously talented prep shortstops throughout the draft. Watson is a smaller stature power-speed profile and now that he is in the Marlins org, gets plenty of Jazz Chisholm comps. I think that's actually pretty accurate as Watson could stick at short but also has second base in the realm of possibilities. And he probably profiles in that .260 average, 25 home runs, 20 steals, and a high strikeout rate approaching 30%. Typically that statline would be a Tier 2 profile, but there is 1st round draft pedigree and short term Tier 1 value as he is a headliner in the product. There is also the personality x-factor that Kahlil has, very similar to Jazz, that is so hard to quantify and often should lead to some level of a bump above just their simple statline and baseball tools dictate.
James Wood - OF (Padres, 1st Base and Auto) - 2nd round pick in the 2021 MLB Draft by the Padres out of the Florida prep ranks for more than double slot value. I remember first seeing Wood video from IMG academy as a tall (6'7") and lanky baseball crusher. And there was no need for it to be a meatball - he was crushing balls at his shoelaces as well as eye level. Then came the spring of his senior year and for whatever reason it seemed the wheels fell off the hype train a little bit. We saw more swing and miss and there were whispers about attitude. Before all that, he was in the top 10 if not top overall pick conversation. It now looks like the Padres got an absolute steal for that momentary lapse in success. The raw power borders on elite and in-game power is easily plus. Even at his height, he surprisingly is showing that he can stick in center field for the short term. Shouldn't be a problem for him to move out to a corner and the arm will play in right, but it's impressive that he is versatile enough at the moment to play in center. He can steal some bags, too. Another impressive trait at his height, although if he does put on significant mass, that is likey to be a thing of the past. His hit tool is probably the biggest question mark as that is a hangover from his senior year of high school, but since he has arrived in pro ball, he has shown those concerns to be overblown. Even in games where he was struggling against a tough pitcher, I was seeing him still put the bat on the ball regularly. He did show a bit of a high strikeout rate at the Complex in 2021, but has yet to repeat that issue in a small sample at Single-A in 2022. In the long term, the jury still may be out on his hit tool, especially as he faces more advaned competition. A final note from the data side is that Wood sits in the Top 10 overall for hitters in the 2022 RoboScout rankings. For now, I am firmly on that James Slangin' the Wood bandwagon.
TIER TWO
Colson Montgomery - SS (White Sox, 1st Base and Auto) - The prep shortstop was the White Sox 1st round pick at 22 overall in the 2021 MLB draft and our top overall prospect in the ChiSox top 30. Tall (6'4") and lithe frame that looks like he could easily play shooting guard and indeed was a very good prep basketball player. Typical left handed swing that is geared for anything middle down to his shoelaces. Put the ball on the ground way too much in his 2021 debut, but in the small sample 2022 season that seems to have improved. Even still, I would like to see more line drives in his profile. Power over hit tool currently with plus raw juice in the bat. Strikeout rate is good and even better, he adds in a high walk rate. He can play an acceptable shortstop at the moment, but the jury is out on whether he sticks there or gets pushed over to third base, which would put some more pressure on the hit tool to perform. No real deficiencies and has the potential to jump into Tier 1 if he can improve the hit tool, but for now, I will be slightly cautious and put him as my top player in Tier 2. Wouldn't argue with anyone that has him in their top tier.
George Valera - OF (Guardians, 1st Base and Auto) - Well known in hobby circles due to his agent posting a picture of Valera's unsigned (and eventually signed) 2020 Bowman Sapphire Edition 1/1 Padparadscha. Evidently, Topps was planning on including Valera in 2020 Bowman and was not able to come to a deal on how much he would be paid for his autos, but somehow still sent him the cards to autograph without a signed deal in place. Two years later, the deal is in place and Valera gets his 1st Bowman, at least from a publicly circulated standpoint.
Opinions are varied on Valera (alliteration at its finest right there), especially in regard to the hit tool. Part of that is he hasn't been healthy enough to get the volume of games to give us a good idea of who he is now and who he can be in the future - the pandemic also did him no favors in that regard. We got 86 games split between High-A and Double-A with the majority of it in High-A. It was overall a successful 2021 with 19 home runs combined and strong walk and strikeout rates in High-A as pitchers started to avoid giving him stuff to hit. Double A was a bit more standard fare there for walk rates, but his strikeout rate went up pretty high. In 2022 small sample size conclusions, he is again walking a lot, maybe a bit too much, while keeping his strike out rate acceptable around 24%. I tend to fall on the positive side of the spectrum for Valera's hit tool, and I don't think anyone is questioning his power tool as it is natural and all fields. Everything in my opinion is at least above average - he should be able to competently play all three outfield positions with the arm to stick in right field and get at least chip-in steals. The power is the attractive part for me as I see it as a future plus tool. An every day starter hitting in the .260 - .280 area with high OBP's and easily 25 to 30 home runs with potential for more seems like a Tier 2 player all day long.
Curtis Mead - 1B/3B (Rays, 1st Base and Auto) - Mead was off pretty much everyone's prospect radar prior to 2021 including the Phillies who traded him to the Rays back in 2019 for a prospect pitcher I've never heard of. Will MLB teams never learn not to trade with the Rays? Back on topic, Mead is now pretty much a consensus top 5 prospect in the Rays org (4th for Prospects Live) and came in at 69 (nice) overall in our Top 100. He's had a plus hit tool and now we are seeing a plus power tool to go along with it as he put up 15 home runs across his various 2021 minor league stops. It's hard not to gush about Mead. The video I watched was the epitome of a professional hitter. Plate coverage, a willingness to put the ball into play across the field, ability to deposit the ball over the fence including solid power to the opposite field. I saw him absolutely crush inside pitches multiple times which made me gasp in Spanish. His main weakness is defense where his lack of major league arm talent is likely sending him to the 1B/LF/DH role. Even though he stole 11 bags in 2021, it seemed more opportunistic than indicative of future MLB production, so I won't count on anything other than a few chip in steals when he does come up. A guy right on my Tier 1 and 2 borderline, but I will exercise some minor caution given the defensive, team, and one year of production context and stick him at the top of Tier 2. Definitely a player I want to own some 1st Bowman cards of.
Dustin Harris - OF (Rangers, 1st Base and Auto) - 2019 11th round pick of the Athletics that was traded at the 2020 deadline to the Rangers along with Marcus Smith for Mike Minor and cash. Harris proceeded to crush the 2021 minor league season both at Low-A and High-A to the tune of 20 home runs and a .327/.401/.542 combined. He also stole 25 bases - not something I am banking on to be part of his future profile but it would be a really nice bonus. His walk rates were good to plus and his strikeout rate was impressively low. In 2022, his strikeout rate has increased and his walk rate has dropped, but he's still hitting for average. Hasn't been barrelling the ball as much resulting in mostly singles, but he looks to be starting to heat up a bit with a couple of recent home runs. Previously he was playing 3B/1B and has exclusively been playing left field and DH in 2022. Defense is not his forte and if he ends up turning into a DH only profile, that could put a slight dent into his hobby outlook. Plus hit tool, Plus power tool, possibly some speed - it's all stuff I like to see from a hobby perspective. For now, he is firmly planted in my Tier 2 and someone I would be happy to get some cards of.
Jose Ramos - OF - (Dodgers, 1st Base and Auto) - A pop-up prospect for the Dodgers in 2021 (this will be a #theme), the cheap Panamanian signing debuted stateside last year and showed off plus power, double plus max exit velos, elite average exit velos, and the ability to crush the fastball. There is risk here with Ramos given his swing and miss, but he gets some leeway on this for me being in the Dodgers org. In half the other orgs, I would have a lot more concern with him struggling regularly against off-speed stuff. He has the arm to easily play in right field but should be able to also help in center if needed. If you're ranking the Dodgers prospects for baseball and perhaps even fantasy, I could easily see taking Eddys Leonard before Jose Ramos. But when it comes to the Hobby, give me Jose Ramos and the tantalizing power potential to get to 30+ home runs with ease, which is why I am slotting him towards the top of Tier 2.
Eddys Leonard - 2B/3B/SS (Dodgers, 1st Base and Auto) - Leonard was one of the biggest pop-up prospects in 2021 as he smashed 22 home runs across Low-A and High-A. His strikeout rate wasn't egregious at around 23% in 2021, but there is some swing and miss, especially with the off-speed stuff. I also saw him get frozen with the off-speed as well, but that may just be him being in whatever funk he is in to start off 2022. Defense is a big question mark and will likely cap his ceiling as he gets bounced around trying to find a permanent home. He also probably loses the stolen bases as he thickens up with age. Hit and Power are above average at the least and given his bat speed, he could see both of those tools trend towards plus territory. Not a big fan of the looks I've seen of him in 2022, but giving him the benefit of the doubt based on his 2021 results and sliding him into the bottom of Tier 2. Wouldn't argue pushing him down into Tier 3 and if he continues his anemic 2022, it's a foregone conclusion.
Jackson Chourio - OF (Brewers, 1st Base only) - The Brewers’ top International signing for the 2021 J15 class (2020 delayed class), he was classified as a SS and Outfielder. Since then, it looks like he is more destined for center field given his underwhelming arm strength. But the real story here is the power-speed combo supported by a surprisingly strong hit tool. It makes me swoon. Every video I watched of Chourio was him just hitting the ball hard everywhere - down the line, into the gaps, and over the fence. Given his youth and lack of high end competition, there is extreme risk to where I am slotting him. But I wouldn't forgive myself if I didn't put him where my eyes tell me he belongs, and that is in Tier 2. I'm on the bandwagon - come join me.
Hendry Mendez - OF (Brewers, 1st Base and Auto) - Mendez was a high riser in the 2021 J15 class as he really grew into his body during the pre-signing process and currently is around 6'3" and 180 pounds. He signed with the Brewers for $800K, and it looks like money well spent. On the defensive side, he profiles as a corner outfielder with enough arm to be able to play right field. In small 2021 samples, he crushed the DSL as well as Complex ball as a 17 year-old. That put him in the top 150 in our Data Driven Top 500 as he showed exceptional plate skills. While more of a hit over power swing at the moment, he swings with INTENT. Full on speed and violence and I'm here for it. Questions do exist around his swing mechanics as with that 110% effort there is a bit of wildness, but I'm not too worried about it at the moment. I may be higher than consensus, but I am comfortable sliding him into the bottom of Tier 2 as his size gives me enough belief that the power will come as that is the only thing missing at the moment.
Felix Valerio - SS/2B (Brewers, 1st Base and Auto) - Signed for almost nothing in 2018 out of the Dominican by the Mets, shortly thereafter he was part of the three-player package sent to the Brewers for Keon Broxton. Valerio is one of the smaller stature players (5'7") that is most likely a second base profile long term although he has spent time at short and third base in 2021 and has gotten a bit of outfield run in 2022. The main interest here and what pushes him into the bottom of Tier 2 is the hit tool. It has a chance to be double plus with his plate approach and small size setup to maximize that, often putting together as many walks as strikeouts. There is a hint of power there as well with him being able to punish mistake pitches to the pull side, although they tend to be wall scrapers at the moment. A strong start to 2022 in his first attempt at Double-A gives me even more confidence to slide him into the bottom of Tier 2.
James Triantos - 3B (Cubs, 1st Auto only) - Drafted in the 2nd round of the MLB Draft by the Cubs for an over-slot bonus of $2.1 Million and proceeded to crush the Complex level for 25 games at the end of 2021. Struggled to start 2022 at Single-A but is heating up after identifying a mechanical issue with his swing that led to a 4 for 36 start. The biggest question is where Triantos will play defensively. In 2021, he split time between shortstop and second base. However, in 2022, he's almost exclusively played third base and that or a corner outfield spot is his most likely long term position. Above average tools across the board at present. Athletic and baseball talent could easily see him approach a ceiling of a .300 hitter with 25 home runs and 10 or so steals, which is a Tier 2 player in my book.
Trey Sweeney - SS (Yankees, 1st Base and Auto) - The Yankees 2021 1st round pick out of Eastern Illinois lived up to his billing as a hit tool prospect with plus plate discipline and above average power. Defensively currently a shortstop but may end up elsewhere on the diamond as he ages. From the video I watched, he did his best work when he could sting balls to the pull side and had a lot of patience at the plate. Nothing I saw blew me away (some mechanics to work on), but the underlying data is strong (Top 40 in our Data Driven Top 500), the Yankees association is ideal, and the 1st round pedigree seals the deal for me putting him into Tier 2.
Joshua Baez - OF (Cardinals, 1st Base and Auto) - 2nd round pick in the 2021 draft by the St. Louis Cardinals out of the Massachusetts prep ranks that was paid significantly over-slot. Baez looks like a linebacker and pretty much fits that same profile on the baseball field. A plus arm that allows him to play either corner long term and potential double plus power. Really strong walk rates in his 2021 Complex season with a double plus max exit velo. On the negative side he had a high strikeout rate approaching 30% with the requisite swing and miss. Also had trouble with off-speed pitches. A long way to go for the 18 year old to justify the Tier 2 rank I am giving him. To do that, he will need to make significant progress in the hit tool with better pitch recognition and stronger contact and bat to ball skills. A high risk, high reward player with a decent amount of draft pedigree, I expect the hobby to have a fair amount of interest in Baez out of the gate.
Taj Bradley - RHP (Rays, 1st Auto only) - 2018 5th round pick or the Rays out of the prep ranks of Georgia with not much pitching experience at the time. The third ranked prospect in the Rays pre-season Top 30, a very strong 2021 shot him up from the back of prospect lists in 2021 to the top group of Rays prospects in 2022. Primarily a two-pitch pitcher with a plus fastball and a plus slider that will get swing and misses as well as freezing batters for strikes. Third pitch is a changeup which is currently average at best. Started off very strong in 2022 in his first three starts until stubbing his toe in his fourth start. But all in all, it seems like Bradley is well on his way to repeating his 2021 success. Two pitch pitchers can be a concern, especially when it comes to going deep into starts, but the Rays are one of the best teams to get the most out of their pitchers by emphasizing their strengths. Given that, Bradley is firmly in the mid-rotation starting territory with a ceiling of an SP2. That upside will have me sliding Bradley into the bottom of my Tier 2.
Oscar Colás - OF (White Sox, 1st Auto only) - What a long, strange trip it's been for the Cuban power bat. Colás started playing in the Japanese minor leagues back in 2017 as an 18 year old, got a very small sample of seven games in the Japanese big leagues in 2019, and then defected from Cuba by essentially not going back to Cuba all in the aim of joining an MLB organization. Then the pandemic hit and the 2020 J2 class turned into the 2021 J15 class and the team he was attached to, the White Sox, spent their money elsewhere.
Colás was out of sight out of mind while he waited for the next signing period to come through and finally signed with the White Sox during the 2022 J15 signing cycle for $2.7 Million. He's finally stateside and appears to have used the time off to good effect by looking like he's been on a workout regimen. Our 6th overall prospect in the ChiSox system, the Cuban Ohtani is now a hitter only as pitching seemed more like a side job than a real career. In the small sample we've seen of Colás in High-A, he has been surprisingly good. Anything in the happy zone and he gets through the zone lightning quick to the pull side. He's also willing to punch stuff out to the opposite field even if he doesn't do it with a ton of authority. Given his arm strength (he's an ex-pitcher, don't you know) he should have no problem sticking in right field. Colás won't be stealing many, if any bases, so it's mainly the hit tool and the power tool that will determine the long term interest.
There is also short term interest with so much hype and mystery and drama over the past few years with Colás. The power seems real and is probably plus. The hit tool was not something I was expecting to be anything more than average, especially after the layoff, but at the moment he's proving that assumption wrong. The hit tool should determine if he can get the bat on the ball enough to get to what his power tool promises of a 30 home run bat. If he can get there, he's a Tier 2 player. If not, he'll drift down the Tiers. A month ago, I thought he would be an easy Tier 3 call, but given his performance so far, I am going to be cautiously optimistic and slide him into the bottom of Tier 2. Another buyer beware situation as we just have not seen anywhere near enough from Colás to really have a good idea on his trajectory.
Matt Fraizer - OF (Pirates, 1st Base and Auto) - Third round pick of the Pirates out of the University of Arizona, Fraizer popped big time in 2021 with 20 home runs in High-A and 3 more in Double-A in the final month of the season. Athletic and an average to above average tool set across the board, although there are some questions about his arm. That may push him out of center field to a left field only option. The enticing combo here is power/speed with a hit tool that won't drag him down. He could easily be a 20/20 player at maturity and that is a Tier 2 slotting almost every time, which is where I will put Fraizer. So far in 2022, he's been on the struggle bus, but I'll keep him in the bottom half of my Tier 2 and on my watchlist in case he needs to drop down into Tier 3.
TIER THREE
Roberto Campos - OF (Tigers, 1st Base and Auto) - The biggest dollar signing by the Tigers for their 2019 J2 class at almost $3 million, Campos looks the part of a power-hitting corner outfielder at 6'3" 200 pounds. His arm is good enough to put him in right field. His power is good enough to put him into hobby relevancy. His hit tool may hold him back with some swing and miss. I watched quite a few at bats where he was missing high cheese as well as watching plenty of breaking balls drop in for strikes at the heart of the plate. He's going to have to make plate approach adjustments to get into Tier 2 and I contemplated putting him there, but I'm going to be a bit conservative at the moment, especially with him not yet having shown in-game power so far in 2022 (zero home runs at the time of writing). Another extreme risk guy in this product, but one probably worth taking the shot given his raw power as long as the price is right.
Jhonkensy Noel - 3B/1B (Guardians, 1st Base and Auto) - A candidate to be the biggest raw power bat in the product with 40 home run potential. It feels like 9 out of every 10 times he connects, he's putting the ball in the air to the pull side, even if it's more like just 50% of the time. I have concerns that as he moves through the levels and faces more advanced pitching, he will struggle with higher strikeout rates without the walk rates to balance it out. Right now he's doing ok at third base, but it's hard to see Noel as anything but a 1B/DH type, which puts more pressure on his plate approach. I feel like I might be the low man on Noel given his Herculean power, but there are so many Quad A vibes I get that I am putting him into the top of Tier 3. It's a tough call as I vacillate between Tier 2 and Tier 3 for his ranking. Another guy to watch closely as he has the all important hobby ingredient of putting the ball over the fence with ease and I wouldn't mind investing if his cards are cheap, but I am guessing that won’t be the case.
Max Muncy - SS (Athletics, 1st Base and Auto) - The A's 1st round pick (25th overall) in the 2021 MLB Draft as a prep bat out of Southern California. Same name, same birthday, and drafted by the same team as the current Dodger Max Muncy, I'm pretty sure there have to be at least twenty different nicknames already workshopped for this version of Muncy. Deja Vu, The Second Coming, 2.0, The Younger, etc. The possibilities are really endless and I think we'll need fellow Prospects Live writer Rhys White to come down with a final ruling on this topic.
Primarily a shortstop at the moment which he can play competently but could move over to third base and/or second base if the MLB squad has a stronger glove available at short. Has above average tools across the board but at the moment his plate approach leaves a fair amount to be desired. Looked really passive and was taking a lot of pitches from what I saw. To a certain degree, that's not bad, but it does put him in positions where he is more in defensive mode as counts run against him. In small sample sizes so far, this has played out with positive high walk rates negatively balanced out with high strike out rates. On the positive side, he has put up 5 home runs in just 20 games in 2022 as of this writing.
Currently he looks like a .260-ish hitter with 20-25 home runs and 10 steals that can bounce around the diamond as an everyday regular. Given his 1st round draft pedigree, I am on the fence between Tier 2 and Tier 3 - going to go with my gut and stick him at the top of Tier 3. I am guessing he will be treated more like a Tier 2 player and I probably should as well but I’d like to see him for a full season before I get there. Another guy to watch his development to see if he can modify his plate approach to unlock in game power and more consistently get good pitches to hit which would give him that push into Tier 2.
Matt McLain - SS (Reds, 1st Auto only) - First round pick (17th overall) of the Reds in the 2021 MLB Draft, McLain is one of the higher floor guys in the product. A plus hit tool with a good plate approach, even with a bit of struggle versus offspeed stuff away, is the main driver of that floor. Most likely home is second base, but he can play anywhere up the middle if needed. The ceiling is capped though because of the fringe power. There is 1st round pedigree and he has been a successful hitter every year besides his Freshman year in college, so I can see the argument to bump him up into Tier 2. If he can change his profile to something more like a potential 15-20 homerun guy and increased exit velos, then I would be willing to move him into Tier 2 in a similar slotting that I had Sal Frelick in 2021 Bowman Draft.
Aeverson Arteaga - SS (Giants, 1st Base and Auto) - The Giants’ biggest signing in the 2019 J2 class for $1 million, Arteaga got a lot of buzz with his 2021 Complex performance. Initially thought to be a defense-first profile that should have no problem sticking at shortstop, he showed an unexpected power-speed combo in 2021. That came with a very high strike out rate and a low walk rate in a stadium that is very hitter friendly, so that should bring about an overall note of caution with the expecations here. His swing is aesthetically pleasing and reminiscent of other young players in the Giants lower level of the minors. As Arteaga matures, the power should really come into its own. If he can cut the strike out rate down, then we are looking at the next big name Giants prospect along the lines of Marco Luciano, Luis Matos, and Jairo Pomares. As a Giants fan, he's in my Tier 2. As an impartial observer, I am putting him at the top of Tier 3 as someone to watch to see if his power manifests with better average exit velocities and lower strikeout rates.
Warming Bernabel - 3B (Rockies, 1st Base and Auto) - 2018 J2 signing for just under seven figures, he was immediately moved from shortstop to third base. A capable defender, but not a calling card of his, and probably the correct decision. Swing-happy approach is currently rewarded with his bat to ball feel and going against lesser competition. This feel to hit even with that propensity to swing creates a surprisingly low strike out rate, but also leads to below average walk rates. He will also steal some bases, but it's not yet a huge part of his game. With the bat in his hands, he just has that athletic, natural instinct you like to see. Has started off strong in 2022 at Single-A. At the moment, we don't see a ton of power, but as he matures, this could come into play. If/when it does, we are looking at a potential Tier 2 player, especially if this profile has a home field of Coors field. Until that powerfully manifests, I am playing it a bit cautious with putting Bernabel at the top grouping of Tier 3.
Oswaldo Cabrera - SS/2B/3B (Yankees, 1st Base and Auto) - A relatively cheap J2 signing out of Venezuela in 2015, Cabrera has worked his way up the organization and transformed from hit over power prospect to a power over hit prospect. He put up 29 home runs in 2021, most of that time being spent in Double A. His career home run total in affiliated ball prior to that was 22 home runs, a time frame spanning four years. He also put up 21 stolen bases in 2021 which was more than double any season-long total (10 in 2019). That type of power/speed talent coupled with the Yankees bump (for now, as we have learned Yankees prospects often are trade bait) deserves at least a Tier 3 slot and even Tier 2 consideration. I really like the swing when he connects from the left hand side (down and in lefty home runs look so pretty in general), but his swing from the right side is more hit oriented with mainly gap power, and it just didn't end up delivering much value in 2021. Just enough questions with the development changes, the swing, and miss, and concerns from the right-hand side of the plate have me again vacillating between a Tier 2 and Tier 3 ranking. With his lackluster start to 2022 and how he is back to trending as a bench bat rather than an everyday starter in Yankee stadium, I'll keep him in Tier 3.
Ceddanne Rafaela - OF/SS/2B (Red Sox, 1st Base only) - The 2017 J2 signing out of Curacao is a former LLWS participant that took a scary pitch to the head from a Japanese pitcher that was throwing the equivalent of 99 mph at that age. Ceddanne is a smaller stature guy that fits the defense/speed future utility player mold, although he does appear to have grown a bit bigger than his listed 5'8" and 145 pounds. He has some double-digit power potential in his bat with an aggressive approach. Prior to 2022, this was an easy Tier None call, but he has lit up the first month of the season and is currently sporting an average over .300 and 6 home runs. He's now in Tier 3 and a watch list guy to see if he can continue this Cinderella, or should I say Ceddannerella story.
Lenyn Sosa - SS (White Sox, 1st Base and Auto) - A utility middle infielder/second division regular that has been on fire to start 2022. Not sure how sustainable it is, but in the small sample in 2022, he has impressively lowered his strikeout rate while also raising his walk rate out of the danger zone. Even with that walk rate increase, he still seems on the aggressive side of the spectrum as a hitter. Nothing more than above average tools across the board at the moment, but if he can make his 2022 improvement stick, then the Tier 3 ranking is easily justified. I would take a wait and see approach here as I'm not sure how real the approach changes are even with the eye-opening start to 2022.
Jack Suwinski - OF (Pirates, 1st Base and Auto) - Acquired from the Padres for Adam Frazier along with two other prospects, Suwinski was an afterthought until 2021 when he really tapped into his pull side power in combination with showing strong plate discipline. He graded out in the top 50 highlighted by a 70 walk rate in our Top 500 Data Driven Prospects in his walk percentage. Not going to provide anything from a speed perspective and is likely limited to left field but more likely as a DH. He recently debuted and has picked up 5 hits in 6 games, but the lack of a locked in defensive position, not a great hobby team, and nothing else outside of power and plate discipline pushes him into the bottom of Tier 3 for me. I could easily see him in Tier None, especially as he doesn't hit same side pitching well, but there is just enough power to potentially make a splash with his initial pass through the big leagues and drive some hobby interest.
Brayan Bello - RHP (Red Sox, 1st Base and Auto) - Bello has a lot of helium as he made a huge jump in 2021 and continued to perform in Spring Training. Prior to 2021, he was being tabbed as more likely ending up in a bullpen role, but it now looks like he has a chance to be a mid-rotation starter with hobby-friendly strikeout upside. As his command gets better, his 95-98 fastball that can top out in triple digits will set up a gyro slider and fading change up for those strikeouts more and more. He has the ingredients and is an easy Tier 3 call - he adds the command and, with that Red Sox bump, he could find himself approaching Tier 2.
Brendan Donovan - UTIL (Cardinals, 1st Paper Retail Auto only) - 7th round pick by the Cardinals in the 2018 MLB draft out of the University of South Alabama. Solid all around tools glue-guy type of player who just got his MLB debut at the end of April. Best tool is the hit tool with a plus approach at the plate. Double digit walk rates and under 18% strikeout rates lead to that plus approach. All fields approach with chip in home runs and chip in steals. Most likely outcome is a .280 hitter with a high OBP giving you 10 home runs and 10 steals with multi-position eligibility. In fantasy, this is the type of player you pick up in the mid rounds. In the hobby, it really is more of a Tier 3 type player with minimal upside.
Niko Kavadas - 1B (Red Sox, 1st Base and Auto) - The Red Sox 11th round pick in 2021 is a 1B/DH with a three true outcomes profile. Currently, at Single-A, I'd really like to see him get to High-A to face more advanced pitching and have more of a challenge. A lot of swing and miss potential that is balanced out by good walk rates. When a ball ends up in the groove for Niko, he smashes it over the fence with out-of-the-stadium power. It really is a thing of beauty. Given that game-changing power and a highly collectible team in the Red Sox, he merits at the least a Tier 3 ranking, which is where I'll put him. Even if he is the second coming of Dan Vogelbach.
Norge Vera - RHP (White Sox, 1st Base only) - Signed out of Cuba in early 2021 for $1.5 Million by the White Sox. Now 21 years old, Vera is a bit behind when it comes to age appropriate competition since he's only pitched in the DSL in 2021. A lat strain has prevented him from starting the 2022 season on time. He dominated the DSL in his short stint there throwing 19 innings and racking up 34 strikeouts including an almost 80% groundball rate. Fastball is plus in the mid-90s with the potential to creep towards triple digits. Curveball is his best secondary and is above average at the moment while his barely used changeup is fringey and doesn't mesh well with his fastball. Truly a high risk profile with how little we've been able to see of him. The tools are tantalizing and the mid-rotation potential is currently there, but there are even more unknowns than usual in the prospect world. A Tier 3 arm that could easily jump to Tier 2 if he is lights out for the 60 - 80 innings he should get in 2022.
Ian Lewis - 2B/3B/SS (Marlins, 1st Base only) - Part of the Marlins 2019 J2 class which included Eury Perez and Jose Salas (oh my!), the Bahamian shortstop was mainly viewed as a defense-first shortstop with a healthy dose of speed to help buoy the profile. In 2021 during his first full season stateside, he showed an unexpected hit tool with a .302 batting average and a very nice 15% strikeout rate. The walk rate was a bit low at just under 7% and he only hit 3 home runs in 43 games. It's all a small sample size and there is a lot of growth to come in Lewis' profile, so I could easily see him reach Tier 2 at some point soon. Add in the x-factor personality that he seems to have along with fellow Marlins prospect Kahlil Watson and fellow Marlins big leaguer Bahamian Jazz Chisholm and it might be easier to make that leap than I think. If Lewis ends up being someone you can grab at a cheap price point, there are a lot worse options in the product.
Gavin Conticello - 3B (Diamondbacks, 1st Auto only) - Prep left-handed power bat drafted in the 8th round of the and signed to a large overslot bonus. Was a shortstop but immediately transitioned to third base full time in 2021 at the Complex and likely finds his home there, first base, and/or left field, which does put more pressure on his hit tool to perform. The loud, raw power is there and his swing is heavily geared towards the pull side. His development will need to focus on how to unlock that power in-game against professional pitching as he didn't find much success in the small sample size at the Complex in 2021. A lot of projection here for the still 18 year old power bat as I put him into Tier 3. A lottery ticket, if cheap enough that I would be buying regularly.
Samad Taylor - 2B (Blue Jays, 1st Base only) - Broke out in 2021 at Double A fully engaging his power/speed combo with an aggressive approach. When he gets a hold of a ball, even with his small stature, it is an athletic whip through the zone smashing the ball over the pull side fences. Average to Above Average or better stat cast metrics across the board in 2021. Fits the positional profile that Austin Martin also was trending towards, even if they are completely different offensive players, which potentially made Toronto more willing to part with Martin. Still some skepticism that his power will be able to play at the big league level. His floor is a bench bat or second division regular, but he has enough ceiling with that hobby-friendly power/speed tool set that I am slotting him into Tier 3 and watching him closely in 2022.
Jorbit Vivas - 2B/3B (Dodgers, 1st Base only) - The hit tool with a plus plate approach is the headliner here with the 21 year old Venezuelan pop-up prospect. Any player with a hit tool in the Dodgers organization is someone to keep a close eye on as they have shown they can unlock power in unexpected places. That certainly showed up last year for Vivas as he put up 14 home runs in 106 games between Low-A and High-A. For a smaller statured kid, this was definitely surprising, and I'm not sure I 100% believe it yet. He likely ends up as a second base/utility type even though he can fill in at third base, shortstop, and left field. He's struggled so far in 2022, but given his track results in 2021 and the fact that the Dodgers put him on their 40-man roster in the off-season even with his distance from an MLB debut, I think it's an easy Tier 3 call. He'll have to find that 2021 form and continue with the power uptick to remain in Tier 3 or possibly even be considered for Tier 2 by the end of 2022.
Maikol Escotto - 2B/SS (Pirates, 1st Base only) - One of the four prospects packaged by the Yankees to be sent to the Pirates for Jameson Taillon prior to the 2021 MLB season. Average to above-average tools across the board at the moment. Killed it in the DSL in 2019, and if he was in a Bowman product in 2020, he would've likely been ticketed for the bottom of Tier 2 based on that performance. But he's shown increased swing and miss that limits his upside for now. Athletic and muscular frame that looks like he could get to plus power as he matures. I've seen a couple of videos where he's comfortably put the ball over the opposite field fence which is encouraging for his future power outlook. The high strikeout percentage coupled with too many ground balls in 2021 will keep him from reaching that Tier 2 level and I will stick him into the middle of Tier 3 until we see hit tool improvements. Definitely a prospect took keep an eye on as there's a lot here to like if he can put the pieces together which is definitely in the cards given how young he is (just 19).
Jose Fermin - 3B/2B/SS (Guardians, 1st Auto only) - I feel like I am going through the Vidal Brujan experience all over again. Fermin was signed out of the Dominican back in 2015 by Cleveland and has shown a great plate approach with the ability to barrel the ball to all fields. Regularly sports strikeout rates in the single digits or barely above it. However in the first month of 2022, just like the first month of 2021 for Vidal Brujan, Fermin has decided he's going to hit home runs (and see his strikeout rate almost double). Similar to Brujan, this doesn't seem like a permanent change and I expect him to go back towards the low K rate good contact hitter he's been in previous seasons. Until this 2022 explosion, he's been regularly pegged as a middle infield utility type or second division regular hitting at the top of a batting order with the potential to steal (even if this has been tailing off recently). I still think he is that bench bat/second division regular profile and am not going to fall for the Brujan trap again, but his eye-opening performance does deserve to at least be considered which is why I am putting him into Tier 3.
Allan Cerda - OF (Reds, 1st Base and Auto) - Another high-risk high reward bat in Tier 3 that has an athletic physique with a power arm in the outfield. Exhibits raw power - I saw him put a beautiful swing into a pitch that sent it 445 feet. There is plenty of swing and miss but most of that is in the zone for the moment. The hit tool is really the make or break piece and at the moment it is what is keeping him in Tier 3. If it gets figured out, there is All-Star potential and an easy move up into Tier 2. If he doesn't, he turns into an up and down bat that probably gets cycled through various different orgs.
Tyler Whitaker - OF (Astros, 1st Auto only) - 3rd round pick in the 2021 MLB draft by the Astros was actually their first pick in the draft due to cheating penatlies. Took a large overslot bonus to convince Whitaker to sign rather than head to the University of Arizona. Athletic, bigger-framed shortstop that most likely ends up at third base and/or any outfield position. Power-speed profile with pretty big hit tool concerns. Saw him swinging and missing a lot on off speed pitches and his 2021 and 2022 numbers have not looked great. In a lot of systems, I would be concerned that the strikeouts and hit tool issues would be too much to overcome, but Houston is one of those places that can likely figure it out better than most other orgs. Given that, I am going to be on the positive side here and put Whitaker into Tier 3 and have him on my watchlist.
Jordan Wicks - LHP (Cubs, 1st Auto only) - The Cubs 1st round pick in the 2021 MLB draft, he came in at 5th overall in our Cubs Top 30 prospects list. The story with the right-hander out of Kansas State is a plus change up that was probably the best one in the 2021 draft. He profiles as somewhere in that SP3-SP5 range depending on how the rest of his secondaries play. Fastball sits in the low 90s as an above average offering due to its deception, aided by his plus retraction and shoulder mobility. Average slider and curveball wrap up the four-pitch mix. Command is above average and should get to plus as he matures. Given how good the changeup is, there is the potential for more strikeouts here than you would expect given the rest of his profile. The pedigree, additional strikeout potential, and a collectible team in the Cubs gets Wicks into the Tier 3 territory, which is probably where he stays long term.
Denzer Guzman - SS (Angels, 1st Base and Auto) - The Angels top signing in the 2021 J15 class, the Dominican shortstop signed for $2 Million. Lanky frame at the moment - when he fills out and adds muscle, expect to see his power start to show itself. Currently, there is very little in-game power. He is able to put the bat on the ball a fair amount which limits the strikeouts even if he does struggle with off-speed stuff. Has speed and put up 11 stolen bags in the DSL in 2021. I liked the speed I saw on video of him busting it down the first base line. All in all, a very young, raw athlete that, if you squint, you can see above-average tools across the board with the hint of even more. Cautiously ranking him in Tier 3 given he hasn't officially taken any stateside reps, but a guy I have on my watch list as someone who could move up the ranks with development and growth.
Randy Vasquez - RHP (Yankees, 1st Auto only) - Yankees International signing out of the Dominican Republic, Vasquez has spin for days and what the opposite of that is for command. When his command is on, it's a mid-rotation starter with a double plus curveball that generates whiffs and strikeouts. When it's off, he looks like a future bullpen piece. He also features a high spin fastball out of a difficult to hit 3/4 arm slot along with a developing changeup. He gets a Tier 3 slot because of how nasty his arsenal can be, but the profile is high risk based on the future trajectory of his command.
Adam Macko - LHP (Mariners, 1st Auto only) - Lefty prep pitcher taken by the Mariners in the 7th round of the 2019 MLB Draft. Big time strikeout pitcher that will need improved command as that final piece of the puzzle to lock in his mid-rotation projection and potentially approach SP2 territory. Four pitch mix led by a plus mid-90's fastball with strong whiff rates. Curveball, slider, and changeup all are above average to plus pitches depending on the day. The name of the game is the movement Macko gets on everything. He's looked good out of the gate in 2022, but had a bad start in his latest outing, knocking him down our RoboScout rankings. Even still, he's up in the top ranking of High-A pitchers. An easy Tier 3 ranking and definitely has the looming potential of moving up to Tier 2 if he can find consistent command.
Alejandro Hidalgo - RHP (Angels, 1st Auto only) - International signing out of Venezuela, the 18 year old is starting to show potential mid-rotation starter traits and is one of the more exciting arms in the Angels system. Hidalgo will feature three pitches starting with an above average low to mid 90's fastball with arm-side run, a plus curveball that gets a fair amount of whiffs, and a burgeoning changeup that should help cement his rotation status. In his first taste of Single-A this year, Hidalgo has excelled with strong strikeout rates and limiting base runners. There's definitely some project here as I will go on the positive side of the equation with ranking him in Tier 3.
Andry Lara - RHP (Nationals, 1st Base and Auto) - Headliner for the Nationals in the 2019 J2 class, signing for $1.25 Million. Three pitch mix with a riding fastball sitting 92-94 and a breaking ball that has gotten much tighter and more effective from last year, generating whiffs and strikeouts. I really like the improvement I've seen on the breaking ball. The final pitch is an average changeup that at the moment doesn't provide much value, but could in the future. The main concern with Lara in the past has been his command, which has been subpar, and continues to plague him thus far in 2022. Consistent command and a better changeup in the future and we are looking at an SP2/3 type which would vault him into Tier 2 territory. For now, I will slot him into Tier 3 and pay close attention to his development - he's still just 19, so there is a long road here, but it could be a promising one.
Dayton Dooney - 2B (Royals, 1st Auto only) - 2021 6th round choice of the Royals that signed for essentially slot money. Freshman All-American at the University of Arizona and ended up transferring to Central Arizona for his junior season. Defense is a big question mark with second base being his best opportunity to play with the glove on. Strong plate approach and ability to barrel the ball from both sides of the plate. Average strikeout rates with plus walk rates. Didn't end up on a full season roster to start 2022, so we'll be seeing him at the Complex again, but I am guessing it won’t be for long. The bat will carry the profile and if he can find an everyday home on the field, he could generate enough stats to be Tier 3 worthy, which is where I'll have him.
Logan Cerny - OF (Phillies*, 1st Base only) - The Phillies 10th round pick in the 2021 MLB Draft was traded to the Astros for backup catcher Garrett Stubbs. It was a very head-scratching move as I would've thought someone with Cerny's raw tools would be worth more than a backup catcher, but maybe the Phillies know something we don't once they got Cerny in the building. Going off just what we know, Cerny is a toolsy outfielder that in the right hands could turn into an attractive major league piece. The power-speed combo with plus outfield defense is brought down by a poor approach and contact issues. These struggles have persisted since he's gotten into affiliated ball and is what keeps him in Tier 3. I love seeing him get all 185 pounds of his frame whipping around on a home run ball, but if we don't get to see that often enough with hit tool and approach improvements, he loses relevancy fast and suddenly this trade doesn't look as bad for the Phillies as it did at first blush.
Fidel Montero - OF (Yankees, 1st Base only) - A 2021 J15 signing who spent all of 2021 down at the Dominican Complex level. Power/Speed prospect with an intriguing tool set that I really wish we had more video on to see why the hit tool rated out so poorly. In our 2021 Data Driven Top 500, his hit tool was fringe while the rest of the data points were plus. Can't really speculate on why that was, but the video we do have shows off that impressive power swing and it is very enticing. I'll slot him into Tier 3 with that hobby friendly skill set and the Yankees affiliation. Hopefully, we can get some good video of him out of the Complex this year (I'm looking at you John Brophy) to see if the hit tool just won’t be good enough to make him relevant or if he has what it takes to engage that power in game. The risk is extreme at the moment, but taking a bit of a leap of faith here.
Roismar Quintana - OF (Nationals, 1st Base and Auto) - 2019 J2 signing of the Nationals for just north of $800K, Quintana presents an intriguing skill set that we have unfortunately not gotten to see much of due to the Pandemic and injuries. At the moment he profiles as a plus hit and power outfielder that should be able to play all three spots in the outfield but is more of a corner long term. Highly variable ranking as a Tier 3 guy at the moment given how little we've seen of him and playing time he's gotten. Another risky buyer beware player that could be anywhere on the spectrum of someone worth collecting to someone that ends up in the card donation pile.
Dariel Lopez - 3B/SS (Pirates, 1st Base only) - Like his fellow Pirates prospect Maikol Escotto, Lopez killed the DSL in 2019 and spent all of 2021 in Single A. Lopez did have a bit more of a successful 2021 campaign, but I don't see as much of a ceiling with Lopez as I do with Escotto. Lopez is all legs and more slight of frame and is more likely to end up in either or both of the infield corners, putting more pressure on his bat. He has the arm, but not the glove to be able to stick in the middle of the diamond. I'm not sure if this is a positive or a negative, but a lot of his 2021 gap and over the fence power was to the opposite field or the opposite field gap. Will be interesting to see if at any point his focus gets more pull side power and how that impacts his outlook. For now I am sticking him in the bottom half of Tier Three as there's potentially something more than just a platoon bat/second division regular given how he held his own as a young first timer in Single A last year. Wish I saw more ceiling to be more comfortable with this slotting, but think he's shown enough to not get hung with the Tier None tag.
Rodolfo Nolasco - OF (Pirates, 1st Base only) - Another Pirates prospect that crushed the 2019 DSL, but an injury in Spring Training in 2021 led the Pirates to keep him at the Complex level instead of getting pushed to Single A like fellow Pirates prospects Escotto and Lopez. Nolasco has a very hobby friendly power bat with the physique to match. Swing and miss concerns even if he is able to show good pitch recognition. Not a ton of video given that he didn't reach full season ball until 2022, but he has no doubt over the fence power. Tier 3 bat until we get to see if his hit tool can keep up as he starts to face more advanced pitching. At the moment, there are real doubts given his strikeout rate.
Carlos Aguiar - OF (Twins, 1st Base and Auto) - A very young for his class 2017 J2 signing for seven figures hailing from Venezuela, he hasn't yet gotten onto the "List" radar anywhere. Almost nothing to go off of video-wise, he looks to have a long swing geared towards a power over hit approach, and his numbers so far from the Dominican and Rookie leagues back that up. He looks the part of a future power hitting corner outfielder, but is still very raw and starting to age out of the level he is at. I'm sticking him at the bottom of Tier 3 given the big time power potential, but someone I want to see more video on and would exercise caution from a hobby perspective until we get more looks. I wouldn't be surprised to see him become a pop up guy given the tantalizing frame and power, but also wouldn’t be surprised to see him absolutely flame out if he doesn't figure out how to put the bat to the ball enough.
Benyamín Bailey - OF (White Sox, 1st Base and Auto) - Bailey has plus power, but the question is if he will ever be able to get to in game. He may be another in the long line of corner outfield batting practice stars. He definitely looks the part when standing in the batter's box, but I saw way too much swing and miss, foul balls, and balls hit into the ground instead of smashed into the atmosphere. This is confirmed by Dylan White's Hit Tool article where Bailey landed in the Red Quadrant group of prospect hitters with bad pitch recognition. His plus power potential gets him into the bottom of Tier 3, but it's definitely a buyer beware situation for the moment.
Mahki Backstrom - 1B/DH (Braves, 1st Base only) - Very large human Mahki Backstrom was an 18th round prep pick of the Braves in the 2019 MLB draft. Left-handed first base power bat profile that has big time contact deficiencies which unfortunately limits his in-game power upside. High strikeout rate but does balance that out with a high walk rate. If he can figure out the contact issues, which is a big if, there is intriguing hobby potential. Without it, he is the classic Quad A power bat that belongs in Tier None. Given his youth (20 years old), I'll give him a bit of leeway and slide him into the bottom of Tier 3, but this is another significant buyer beware situation.
Zach Logue - LHP (Blue Jays*, 1st Paper Retail Auto only) - 9th round pick of the Blue Jays in 2017 and then traded to the Athletics as part of the package to acquire Matt Chapman prior to the 2022 season. Logue profiles as the classic backend starter as a pitcher with multiple effective pitches, but none particularly over-powering. Low 90's fastball is his most effective pitch given the VAA for his low release. Secondaries are a cutter, slider, and changeup, all with varying degress of effectiveness, but no real true swing and miss pitches here. Putting Logue into the bottom of Tier 3 given his proximity to the big leagues (had a brief call-up already) and potential to deliver value if/when he does put some MLB numbers on the board as he should get plenty of opportunities in a rebuilding Athletics organization.
TIER NONE
Justice Thompson - OF (Reds, 1st Base and Auto) - Speed/defense outfielder that looks and feels like a 4th/5th outfielder type. Tall and skinny build with a good plate approach, but probably a few years away from an MLB weight program from being a double-digit home run hitter. Not much hobby interest until he does unlock future power, so he'll get a top half of Tier None slotting until we saw that happen. An early season promotion to High-A is a promising development. Now go out and hit some home runs Justice!
Darell Hernaiz - SS (Orioles, 1st Base and Auto) - Orioles fifth round pick in 2019 out of the Texas prep ranks, the athletic infielder is basically a collection of average tools at the moment. As he continues to mature, his power tool has a chance to be more than that. In the video I watched, he had some trouble with spin, but he's still got time to figure that out. He did not make it into our Top 500 Dynasty ranks nor out Data Driven Top 500, so I don't even have that to fall back on to consider pushing my rank of him up. All that adds up to a Tier None player with bench bat/second division regular as the most likely outcome. A strong start to 2022 has me putting him at the top of Tier None, but I’ll need to see him continue this trend coupled with a move to High-A to feel good about moving him up to Tier 3.
Euribiel Angeles - SS (Padres*, 1st Base and Auto) - Never a great sign when you are a prospect piece in a trade and the collective baseball industry is not a fan of the side of the deal you are on. Angeles looks to be that classic shorter stature middle infielder good floor utility player. Hit tool is above average and he puts the ball on the bat a lot, spraying it to all fields, although in 2022 in a small sample he seems to be pulling it more often. Lots of ground balls and line drives with mostly gap power. Has the speed to steal 20+ bases with full playing time. Because of that feel to hit, he doesn't strike out a lot, but he's also not walking a lot. A bit more growth and patience could lead to the hit ticking up which would push him into Tier 3 as an everyday hit/speed archetype player, but for now, he's a watch list Tier None player.
Diego Rincones - OF (Giants, 1st Base only) - Aggressive free swinger that can put up offensive numbers in bunches with plenty of hard contact and a swing geared for loft and pull. On the surface, Rincones is probably a Tier 3 player and I wouldn't fault anyone for taking shots on him. But as he moves up the levels, I wouldn't be surprised if his strike out rate jumps, his walk rate continues to drift down, and his lack of defensive prowess starts to hamper his playing time in the outfield. A DH role is definitely in the cards which drives down his hobby value, he's being left off Giants prospects lists in most places, a slow start to 2022, and the Giants did not protect him in the cancelled 2021 Rule V draft. All of that leads me to drop him into the top half of Tier None in the short term. Someone to watch list to see how he does in a repeat of Double-A and especially when he gets up to Triple-A. If he continues to mash when that callup does come, like he did last year, then I was probably too conservative here.
Jonatan Clase - OF (Mariners, 1st Base and Auto) - A cheap 2018 J2 signing of the Mariners that has turned into at the very least a 4th outfielder bench speed option. Has double-plus speed with an above average hit tool although his strikeout rate has really jumped in 2022 as he makes his first pass at Single-A. I saw a couple of impressive home runs from him, but that isn't going to be a major part of his game, perhaps in the 10 per season range when he gets to the big leagues. He could easily be putting up 40 stolen bases with full time run, which could qualify for Tier 3 from a hobby perspective. For now, with the approach concerns, restriction to center or left field due to lack of arm strength, and not enough power to move the needle, I am getting to stick him into the top half of Tier None.
Misael González - OF (White Sox, 1st Base only) - After a strong showing at the Complex level in 2021, Gonzalez struggled to repeat his success at Low A. Speed and defense are going to be his calling cards, and if he can figure out the hit (possibly) and power (unlikely) portions of his game, he becomes a lot more relevant. With limited video, a watch list guy for 2022 to see if he finds that Complex success again. A Tier None guy at the moment, but a decent start to 2022 is promising.
Damiano Palmegiani - 3B (Blue Jays, 1st Auto only) - Selected in 35th round back in 2018 by the Blue Jays out of the Alberta prep ranks, Palmegiani passed on signing. Three years later the spurned lover proposed again and chose the Venezuelan-born power hitter in the 14th round. Varying opinions on whether he can stick at third base or will have to spend more time at first base or left field which would put more pressure on his average hit tool. Despite the hit tool concerns, looks to have a decent amount of patience by taking walks without ending up with too many strikeouts. Athletic looking with bat speed through the zone, there is a potential Tier 3 player here soon, but I'd like to see more contact added to the mix before I push him up there.
Ryan Bliss - SS/2B (Diamondbacks, 1st Auto only) - Second-round draft pick of the Diamondbacks in the 2021 MLB Draft out of Auburn. Hit-speed middle infielder that has sneaky pop given his ability to hit and put that bat on the ball. Best fits at second base due to lack of arm strength although he's exclusively played shortstop so far in pro ball. Has mostly struggled so far with most of his time spent at Low-A last year and High-A this year. Probably looking at a utility player, but as an everyday starter he would probably be putting up a line around .275 with 20+ stolen bases and 10 home runs. Given his scuffling thus far, I am sticking him at the top of Tier None, but he easily could find his way to Tier 3 with some more offensive success.
Tyler Hardman - 1B/3B (Yankees, 1st Auto only) - A fourth-year senior selected in the 5th round by the Yankees with an under slot payday. Was skipped over in the COVID-shortened 2020 draft and then smashed in his 2021 senior year at the University of Oklahoma. That performance has yet to translate with his move to pro ball where he has shown really, really high strike-out rates. This tamps down the thought he could have an average-ish hit tool to be able to support the raw plus power. Splits time between first and third base; profiles more as a first baseman but that will put a lot more pressure on his hit tool. As much as his power tool would dictate a potential Tier 3 ranking, the inability to get to that power is a big problem. Until that changes, he is a top half of Tier None player with a watch list tag.
Yeison Santana - SS (Cubs, 1st Auto only) - Acquired from the Padres as part of the Yu Darvish deal prior to the 2021 season. An athletic shortstop with potential above-average or better tools across the board, but in his first taste of Low-A in 2021, he looked out of his element and was sent back to the Complex. In the first month of the 2022 season, he's looked more like we expected in Single-A with a strong hit tool and the ability to hit the ball to all fields with line drive power. Has some speed and will steal probably in the teens in the big leagues. I really like the high walk rates and, outside of that 20-game Low-A sample in 2021, below average strikeout rates. A bit of caution as a lot of his successful small sample size numbers have a higher than average BABIP and a terrible barrel rate. A hit-speed shortstop that doesn't have much present home run power that had an up and down 2021 and seems to be on the better side of variance in 2022 is going to land in the top half of Tier None. I'm mostly reserving judgment because I want to see how real the small 2022 sample is and if he's honestly coming by this return to success. If he is, then he gets a quick jump into Tier 3.
Brady Allen - OF (Marlins, 1st Base and Auto) - Marlins 5th round pick out of South Carolina in 2021, he unlocked his power to the tune of 13 home runs in his final season in college and showed surprising ability on the basepaths leading to 12 stolen bags. He'll end up in the corner outfield and should put up decent home run numbers, but likely not enough to drive a ton of hobby interest. Having to get Tommy John surgery after the draft has delayed his professional debut, so for now, I will put him into the top of Top None. If he can go from a collection of above average tools to finding a standout tool, he will find the upward momentum in Tier 3 at the very least.
Peyton Wilson - 2B/OF (Royals, 1st Base only) - Royals Competitive Round B pick (66th overall) in the 2021 MLB Draft. Universally seen as a versatile speedy utility player that can still potentially get to 10-15 home runs even with his shorter stature. I pretty much agree although I'd take the lower side of that power estimate as I see his swing more geared for contact than power. Primarily a second baseman but can play centerfield and even be that emergency catcher guy. Nice floor, but not much ceiling to drive hobby interest, so he'll land in the top half of Tier None for now.
Luke Waddell - SS (Braves, 1st Base and Auto) - 2020 eligible draft pick out of Georgia Tech but was not picked in the 5-round COVID draft reportedly due to signing bonus ask. Taken in the 5th round in 2021 by the Braves and proceeded to play really well in a High-A assignment after the draft. Moved up to Double-A and struggled in a small sample and continued to struggle to kick off 2022 at the same level, although he's really picked it up lately. A middle infield utility profile that does most everything well but doesn't do anything special. Power is his main deficiency. Keeps the strikeouts low with a patient approach. Hits a lot of ground balls. Not going to run much if at all either, so the ceiling is really low here even if the floor is decent. A standard Tier None call.
Will Wagner - 2B/3B/SS (Astros, 1st Base only) - Drafted in the 18th round of the 2021 MLB draft by the Astros out of Liberty College after being passed up in the 2020 COVID shortened draft, Wagner's biggest claim to fame at the moment is being the son of former Astro and Hall of Famer Billy Wagner. When watching Wagner, he gives you that feel of having those second-generation baseball instincts and is a solid all-around player. Probably won’t hit for a ton of power, but there is enough to get to double digits. Hit tool has shown to be above average with a short swing that barrels the ball to all fields. Looks to be a floor of a utility player that will primarily play second base but can play third base and shortstop in a pinch. Not a hobby relevant profile at the moment, but could find his way to Tier 3 if he continues to hit, pick up chip in steals, and gets to 10-15 home runs. An everyday player with some added legacy, second-generation flavor is at least a Tier 3 player, but for now, I'll cautiously stick him into the top half of Tier None until we get a bigger sample, especially against more advanced pitching.
Darren Baker - 2B (Nationals, 1st Base and Auto) - 10th round pick in the 2021 MLB draft of the Nationals and son of Dusty Baker. Quite familiar to me as he made headlines in the 2002 World Series between the Angels and the Giants as he ran onto the field in his duty as a bat boy in the middle of the play to go get the dropped bat of Kenny Lofton. J.T. Snow crossed the plate first just as the 4 year-old Darren was doing the same and the man known for his excellent hands at first base scooped up Darren to get him out of harm’s way. With that trip down memory lane out of the way, back to our normally scheduled programming. Baker has a solid utility player floor with potential for an every day lead off role given a strong plate approach and good speed plus instinctive base running talent. Very little power to speak of. Given his legacy attraction and higher floor, he merits Tier 3 consideration, but there won't ever be enough future hobby potential for me to feel comfortable ranking him above Tier None. Don't get me wrong though, as a life-long Giants fan, you better believe I am going to look to own some 1st Bowman Darren Baker cards.
Victor Labrada - OF (Mariners, 1st Base only) - Signed in 2019 after defecting from Cuba, Labrada is mostly looking to put the ball in play and then use his speed to get on base. Gap power and not likely to grow into much more given his smaller stature. Looks to run on the basepaths without much of a plan leading to a lot of stolen bases and a lot of caught stealing situations. Can make spectacular defensive plays in center field. Was highly successful in his initial 50-game sample in Low-A in 2021 before getting the promotion to High-A at mid-season. Struggled at High-A in 2021 as well as to kick off the season in 2022. Most likely fits into a fourth outfielder role or potentially an every day table setting top of the lineup speedster at best. Tier None profile for now with Tier 3 upside if he can find his Single-A form and cut down on getting thrown out on the basepaths.
Elijah Cabell - OF (Cardinals, 1st Auto only) - Drafted in the 17th round of the 2021 MLB draft by the Cardinals out of Florida State. A classic three true outcomes player - he'll hit a home run, take a walk, or strikeout. And that outcome so far in pro ball has been to strikeout 40% of the time or more. He has the arm strength to be able to play either corner outfield position, so there is a small positive there. His home runs are a thing of beauty as his raw power is easily plus if not more. It's a big question if he will regularly be able to get to power in-game given the frequency of his strikeouts. Arguably a Tier 3 player with how big the power is, but I have begun taking more cautious approaches on these player types and am slotting him into the top half of Tier None. If/when hit tool improvements occur and strikeout rate gets below 30%, then he easily jumps into Tier 3.
Anthony Rodriguez - 3B (Giants, 1st Base and Auto) - Signed for $800,000 in the 2019 J2 signing class for the Giants. Got signed as a shortstop, but has spent almost all his time at the Complex playing third base and has gotten good feedback on his defense. Very little video to go off of and he is off the radar of the majority of prospect lists. I liked the one look I had of him with his swing setup and fluidity, but I didn't see anything special with his separation. Looking at the stats, there is a potential for a three true outcomes player as he has high walk rates, high strikeout rates, low batting average, and decent pop. A Tier None player until we get more looks and see his development path and growth in the hit and power departments.
Alejandro Pie - SS (Rays, 1st Base and Auto) - 2018 J2 signing out of the Dominican Republic for $1.4 Million. A lanky 6'4" currently at shortstop but could be pushed over to 3B or CF. He has plus speed and a promise of future power, putting up a plus max exit velo at the Complex in 2021. Unfortunately, that has not yet translated to putting over the balls over the fence, like, at all. While initial reports were positive on his hit tool, things have trended in the wrong direction in that regard. With very little video to go off of, I am going to stick him in Tier None and see if we can get some 2022 looks to check out his development, especially in the power and hit departments.
Zion Bannister - OF (Rangers, 1st Auto only) - Signed out of the Bahamas in the 2019 J2 class for just over $800K but spent time in the states and the Dominican before putting pen to paper. Athletic but very raw who was done no favors by missing the 2020 minor league season. Signed as a switch-hitting shortstop but is now playing exclusively in the outfield (mostly center and left fields) and hitting from the right side only. Power-speed type of profile that is currently sporting a below average hit tool with a lot of swing and miss. Raw power is definitely there. Hasn't played above the Complex level and now at 20 years old looks to be ticketed to another year starting at the Complex level. As tantalizing as the profile is, I have not liked what I've seen on the hitting side which has me putting him into Tier None for now. Another watch guy to see if he can make improvements with the hit tool, but it will likely be a very slow burn here.
Alvin Guzman - OF (Diamondbacks, 1st Base only) - The top J2 International signing of the Diamondbacks in 2018 has the tantalizing athletic talent but is lacking the hit tool to be able to unlock it. His strong defensive talent in centerfield will give him a decent floor and the plus speed doesn't hurt either. Unfortunately, the fringe hit tool is going to prevent him from getting to even average power, and there is potentially more than that in his bat as he matures. I am not a fan of where he has the bat setup and the movement pre-swing - definitely a potential place to find some improvement to get that hit tool more in line with the rest of the talent. Skinny frame at the moment - if he adds muscle, there could definitely be some changes to the profile, but for now, it's a plus defense/speed with potential power held back by a lacking hit tool. That's Tier None until we see positive development.
Cristian Gonzalez - SS (Astros, 1st Auto only) - Outside of a brief stint at the Complex in 2021, Gonzalez has not done much drive confidence in the raw material he presents as a prospect. Appears to be mostly overmatched in his current assignment in High-A where he is repeating close to a 30% strikeout rate that we saw him within Low-A last year. This along with poor in zone contact lead to an average hit tool at best and creates an obstacle to getting to potential above average power. If the 20 year-old shortstop can put together all of the moving pieces at a tall 6'3", there is the chance for an everyday regular that does a little bit of everything. Given that we have really yet to see much of that, I am going to drop Gonzalez into Tier None and add him to my watchlist.
Eduardo Lopez - OF (Red Sox, 1st Base only) - Signed out of the Dominican in the 2018 J2 period for $1.15 Million, he's done little to justify it so far as injuries and the Pandemic have given very little opportunity to get on the field development. Athletic defense/speed type of player that has a decent approach to draw a fair amount of walks, but hasn't shown an in-game pop. Wish there was more video out there to see if there is more than meets the eye, but at the moment this is a dime a dozen profile that belongs in Tier None until further notice.
Diego Velasquez - SS/2B (Giants, 1st Base only) - Giants top signing in the 2021 J15 class for $900K. Currently a defense first shortstop with speed. Not much to write home about with the hit tool and almost no power to speak of. Everything I saw was lightly hit balls around the infield. As he matures and adds strength, the hope is that the offense grows along with it. Until then, he's a Tier None player, but one worth watching as the Giants’ strong recent Latin American signing track record deserves the benefit of the doubt.
Eduardo Vaughan - OF (Red Sox, 1st Auto only) - 2018 J2 signing of the Red Sox out of Panama for $500K. Plays all three outfield positions but as his body matures, may have to move out to the corners. On the taller side at 6'3" without a ton of muscle on him. With added mass, we may see future power, however not anything in game currently. Shows strong walk rates and acceptable strikeout rates, pushing him up really high in prospect xwOBA rankings. Unfortunately, there isn't much impact with the bat as of yet in either the hit or power departments with barely a barrel in sight. Still young (20 years old) and getting his first shot at full season Single-A ball after an underwhelming 2021 Complex season, someone worth having on your watch list. As it stands now, he's not shown he's an everyday regular and will hang out in Tier None until he does.
Federico Polanco - SS (Marlins, 1st Auto only) - 2017 J2 signing of the Mets that was traded to the Marlins for Jordan Yamamoto prior to the 2021 season. Utility player profile that started off 2021 super hot, giving an inkling of perhaps more. Cooled off after that fast start and hasn't picked it up since, including so far in 2022. Can play shortstop, second base, and third base. Has been off the prospect radar for a while now and I don't see that changing until he gets back some of that 2019 form with a walk rate of about 12% and a strikeout rate below 20% while hitting the ball like he did at the beginning of 2021. That's a tall order for Polanco, so he'll be a Tier None player for now.
Wilmin Candelario - SS (Royals, 1st Auto only) - Signed out of the Dominican Republic in the 2018 J2 class for just under $850K. Had an excellent 2019 DSL season, lost a year of dev to 2020, and has looked overmatched at the Complex in 2021 and in Single-A in 2022. Defensively should have no problems sticking at shortstop. Hit and power tools are very raw and his aggressiveness at the plate exacerbates his strikeout rate. As he develops, it looks like more of a power over hit tool outcome. For now, an easy Tier None ranking, but another watch list guy to see if the lightbulb comes on in regard to his offensive game.
Orlando Martinez - OF (Angels, 1st Paper Retail Auto only) - Cuban outfielder has consistently shown that he can hang at every level and potentially be a major league strong-side platoon player. Has a plus arm that will allow him to provide value at both outfield corners. Put up a bit of surprising home run numbers in 2019 and 2021 with 12 and 16 respectively. Most of his damage and 15 of his 16 home runs in 2021 came against right handers. Will add some chip in steals, but speed on the basepaths isn't a big part of his game. Overall a solid player but shouldn't lead to much long term hobby interest. Given his high platoon probability, I'm going with a Tier None ranking, but if he again approaches 20 home runs, there is likely going to be a bit of buzz and some Tier 3 consideration.
Lucas Dunn - UTIL (Padres, 1st Paper Retail Auto only) - 8th round pick of the Padres in the 2021 MLB Draft out of Louisville. Was a versatile utility player that lined up all over the field for Louisville and will likely reprise that role in the big leagues. Good plate approach where he wont strike out much and can steal some bases, but won't deliver much power. Has started off 2022 really strong and if that continues, he may be more than we thought he was. But without the element of power (his one home run this year was of the inside the park variety), the hobby interest should be relatively muted. A Tier None player with Tier 3 upward mobility, but that's likely the ceiling.
Bryan Acuña - SS/OF (Twins, 1st Auto only) - Similar to Elijah Tatis in this product, Acuña is purely a bet on bloodlines at the moment as Bryan is the younger brother of Ronald Jr. Unlike Tatis, Bryan has yet to play in the DSL or stateside and we have zero competitive video looks at him as he just signed this past January with the Twins. Still just 16 years old, he was listed as a shortstop but Bowman is showing his position as outfield (shrug emoji). Listed at 6'0" and 175 pounds, there isn't much to project at the moment. Super lottery ticket territory and hoping that he is the second coming of his older brother Ronald Jr. Wish I had more to go on, but there's nothing out there. Because of that, I am sticking him in Tier None due to lack of information. However, I am sure the hobby will be frothing at the mouth and driving his prices towards Tier 1/2 territory.
Chase Silseth - RHP (Angels, 1st Paper Retail Auto only) - The right-handed pitcher was a 2021 11th rounder out of the University of Arizona taken by the Angels. What's that you say? The Angels drafted a pitcher in the 2021 MLB draft? Who would've guessed? Silseth throws a 96-98 fastball with two effective secondary breakers. He's started off 2022 on fire which lends credence to the possibility that he could end up as a backend rotation piece rather than the bullpen arm that was his floor projection. Still a Tier None arm, but one worth watching to see if he continues to dominate Double-A.
Christian Roa - RHP (Reds, 1st Base and Auto) - Second Round pick in the 2020 COVID draft out of Texas A&M, Roa profiles as a backend starter. He has a four-pitch mix with the secondaries being the better projected pitches. He'll rely on the slider and the curveball depending on the handedness of the batter and his fastball will sit in the low 90s but he can crank up to 96. Command issues as well inconsistency in his delivery will hold him back in the short term. I didn't see any news, but he got held back in extended spring training instead of being assigned out to full season ball. For whatever reason that is, it's another small mark against Roa. All in all, a Tier None profile with potential for Tier 3 as he develops.
Luis Gonzalez - OF (Orioles, 1st Base and Auto) - The Orioles’ top signing for the 2019 J2 class, the first under Mike Elias, is a power hitting corner outfielder with a pretty left handed swing. Unfortunately, it has yet to translate to much success at the professional level in a super small sample. Wish I had more video looks to go off, but until I do, I am sticking him in Teir None and definitely putting him on my watch list for 2022.
Ronny Henriquez - RHP (Rangers*, 1st Auto only) - Acquired by the Twins as part of the Mitch Garver trade, Henriquez maxes as a high leverage reliever if he can’t find anything better than the fringe command he currently sports. Slighter stature guy who is getting starting pitching innings for the moment given the lack of depth in the Twins org, and the Rangers org previously. Fastball is the weapon here with it in the 94-97 range and above average to plus data grades across the board with an elite VAA. Main secondary is an above average slider in the 83-87 range with plus spin that he'll get swing and miss with. Third pitch is a sub-par changeup. Command will need to get better along with the changeup to give him a future rotation home. Until then, we'll stick with the high leverage bullpen tag and that is almost always a Tier None slotting, which I will go with here.
Victor Lizarraga - RHP (Padres, 1st Base and Auto) - Signed by the Padres in the 2021 J15 out of Mexico for $1 Million. The raw stuff is there for Lizarraga to be a mid to back end rotation starter. Three pitch mix with a fastball at 90-94, an above average curveball, and an average change up that will occasionally flash. Increased command and an increase in velocity would immediately bump Lizarraga into the Tier 3 range as that would cement his starting rotation role. I saw too many curveballs and fastballs in the heart of the zone that resulted in some form of contact. When he was spotting the fastball on the edges and dropping the curveball from the heart to out of the bottom of the zone, he was much more effective. There's something there, but nothing at the moment for hobby purposes.
Mason Albright - LHP (Angels, 1st Auto only) - Lefty prep pitcher taken by the Angels in the 12th round of the 2021 MLB draft. The Angels gave him the biggest bonus any player has ever received that was picked outside of the top 10 rounds of the MLB draft at just short of $1.25 Million. They were able to do that by drafting a ton of college pitchers and paying them underslot prices. And by "a ton" I mean EVERY SINGLE PICK. Anyways, Albright's calling card is a plus curveball that I have also seen referred to as a slider in some places. I guess you can take your pick on whether you want to call it a slurvy slider or slurvy curveball or just a slurve. As the hip hop icons Black Sheep said, the choice is yours. He couples that with a low 90's fastball that is effective from the arm slot on the left hand side. His third pitch is a below average changeup. Most likely outcome is a backend rotation role, but if he adds fastball velo and gets the change up to a usable place, he could have more upward mobility into Tier 3. For now, he's a Tier None arm.
Mo Hanley - LHP (Angels, 1st Retail Paper Auto only) - 13th round pick of the Angels in 2021 MLB Draft out of Division 3 Adrian College. The left-hander brings a lot of deception to his game with a high leg kick that is reminiscent of Bronson Arroyo more recently and Satchel Paige if you go way back. As an aside, I really like how Topps used a photo emphasizing this in his cards. Had Tommy John in April of 2021, so we didn't get a whole lot to go off of from his final college season nor seen anything yet this spring. Some under-develeoped raw materials with a mid-90's fastball and a sharp, potential plus slider. Just an all around uncomfortable at bat. Strikeouts are there, but also a fair bit of inconsistency. Also, a Joe Doyle favorite, so that should bump him up a Tier all by itself. However, given the unknowns, going to start him out at Tier None and see what he looks like once he returns. He's a real fun watch, so do yourself that favor when he comes back and check him out.
Michel Triana - 1B (Reds, 1st Base and Auto) - After getting a seven-figure signing bonus in the 2019 J2 cycle, Triana's stock has continued to drift off of prospect lists. A big body with the expected raw power that falls into the 1B/DH realm, he's going to have to really deliver on that power to make up for the rest of his deficiencies to become an everyday player. Next to no video on him because Low A Florida teams have yet to figure out how to plug two wires together, reports and stat lines imply that he struggles with the hit tool and plate approach. This will inhibit his ability to put the ball over the fence and find that full-time gig. An easy Tier None call until we get some positive news and looks on him.
Dauri Lorenzo - SS (Astros, 1st Base and Auto) - 2019 J2 Signing for 1.8 Million. Listed as a shortstop but spent the majority of his 2021 Complex reps at second base. Middle infielder bench bat profile with an average hit tool and below average power. At present, he's mostly hitting singles and has gap power at best. Potential for more power as he matures could push him into an everyday role, but not of any real hobby significance.
Estiven Machado - SS (Blue Jays, 1st Base only) - 2019 J2 signee with next to no professional exposure due to COVID and a hamstring injury. Slick defender that can stick at shortstop with a smaller frame. Switch hitter that is more contact over power. Almost no video to speak of and a slow start to 2022, so another player thrown into Tier None pending future looks to see if there are any standout offensive tools that will push him up to Tier 3.
Junior Sanquintin - 1B/3B (Guardians, 1st Base only) - Signed out of the Dominican in 2018 for the seven figure sum of $1.25 Million as a 16 year old shortstop as a top 15-ish player in the J2 class. Cleveland has pushed him out to the infield corners from shortstop which has put more pressure on his bat and added to his diminishing prospect status. At the moment, he's got above average raw power, but the hit tool holds it back. He put up a 30% strikeout rate at the Complex in 2021 and had too much groundball heavy, weak contact. Not much video since he hasn't played above the Complex level, but what I did see backed up what the statline says and makes it an easy Tier None choice.
Yhoswar Garcia - OF (Phillies, 1st Base and Auto) - Very similar to the other Phillies CF prospect in the product, Simon Muzziotti in that they are contact over power speedsters that at best will be a lineup table setter. Garcia looks to be more of an athlete with better speed (there's video of him stealing 4 bags in a one game) and if you squint, perhaps more power, but not enough to change the profile from a hobby perspective. In the at bats I watched, he was taking everything the opposite way, so that will require an approach change to get to most of his power. Garcia is younger with more development ahead of him, so there is more risk and variance, both good and bad, with his future outcome. Forced to choose between the two, I would take Garcia, but he's still a Tier None player at the moment.
Jheremy Vargas - SS (Brewers, 1st Base only) - 2019 J2 signing for $650K out of Venezuela who should be able to stick anywhere in the infield he is needed while showing an above average hit tool. His swing is level through the zone and couple that with being a bit on the smaller side and there isn't much power to speak of. Likely falls in the utility/bench bat or second division regular type and he doesn't hold much attraction for the hobby.
Luis Verdugo - 3B/SS/2B (Cubs, 1st Base and Auto) - After signing out of Mexico for seven figures in 2017, Verdugo had a big showing in the 2019 Arizona Fall League. Unfortunately, so far that has been the high point in the Cubs organization. Spends most of his time at third base but can also play second and short in a pinch. We thought there was more power here, and he does put some nice power swings on setup pitches, but the hit tool leaves a lot to be desired and the power tool suffers as a result. Struggled mightily in 2021 at Low A and is going to be repeating the level. A make or break season for his prospect status as he's fallen out of favor and will be in Tier None until further notice.
Adrian Sugastey - C (Giants, 1st Base only) - Signed for mid-six figures out of Panama in the Giants 2019 J2 class. Hit over power profile currently. Arm behind the plate is his best asset at the moment as he learns the position, but the feeling is that he should be able to stick there. Had a successful first go at the Complex in 2021, but has struggled so far in his first taste at Single-A in 2022. Has the look of a backup catcher with a chance at more, especially if he changes his plate approach to be more power-orientated or simply hits the ball with more authority.
Ronnier Quintero - C (Cubs, 1st Base and Auto) - A high dollar singing of the Cubs for the 2019 J2 International class, Quintero got $2.9 Million coming out of Venezuela. Since then, he's not got much playing time and has spent most of his time on the development side. Left handed power bat offensive over defensive catcher profile that may not stick at the position. Has a plus arm but not the rest of the defensive package. Catcher tax, hasn't shown anything since he was signed (outside of a grooved home run), and the clock has started to tick. An easy Tier None call for now. Someone to watch to see if he can justify the signing dollars and hype from a few years ago to potentially move up a tier.
Ricardo Genoves - C (Giants, 1st Base and Auto) - Hefty body type that has the arm to stick behind the dish, but needs refinement in the rest of his defensive game to provide value in the catching department. Swing and miss power bat that has a home run first approach - when he gets a hold of one, it gets smacked. Skipped Double-A altogether and has struggled out of the gate in Triple-A. Given the Giants catching depth, Genoves seems like a future odd man out backup catcher scenario and may end up in another org sooner rather than later seeing as how he was not protected for the Rule V draft that never happened. An easy Tier None slotting that will need to refine his plate approach before he can move up the tiers.
Brandon Valenzuela - C (Padres, 1st Base and Auto) - Another Padres signing out of Mexico, Valenzuela profiles as a backup catcher at the moment. Almost all of the requisite defensive tools are in place for him to stick behind the plate and play well. In 2021 at Low-A, he started to show more of an offensive streak with the hit tool by slashing .307/.387/.444 in 82 games before a late season call up to High-A. The small sample size High-A to end 2021 and to kick off 2022 have been more in line with his past statlines, however, which isn't great. Doesn't show a lot of pop and takes an all-fields, put the ball in play approach rather than try and pull it with power from either side of the plate. Going to have to find a power stroke and/or recapture that High-A luck to be considered for anything other than Tier None.
Pablo Aliendo - C (Cubs, 1st Auto only) - Aliendo somewhat came out of nowhere after a strong 2021 Low-A performance. The Venezuelan catcher has the tools to stick behind the plate including an absolute gun to throw prospective base stealers out. Aliendo is currently a fastball hitter with a lot of pull-side focus. Struggles with off-speed stuff that will be a challenge as he moves up the levels, as shown so far in his small samples in High-A in 2021 and 2022. Floor of a backup catcher and an outside shot at a primary catcher role, but shouldn't hold a ton of Hobby interest. Tier None with an outside shot at Tier 3 sometime in the future.
Edgar Quero - C (Angels, 1st Base and Auto) - In a weak Angels system that is lacking catching depth, Quero was a welcome signing in the 2021 J15 class. He has all the defensive chops to stick behind the plate and enough potential with the hit and power tools to have a floor of a backup catcher with the possibility of an every day player. In a small sample of 29 games at the Complex in 2021, he played really well earning a late season promotion but didn't do much with it. Starting off again in Single-A in 2022, he's still not been able to show the same success he showed at the Complex. Switch hitter with a long way to go to figure out if he's a hit over power or power over hit player. There is definite swing and miss at the moment, but I like his short swing to get to the ball. A good floor, unlikely to be much of a ceiling, but he likely gets plenty of opportunities given the dearth of options in the Angels org. A Tier None player with a chance to get to Tier 3 with a lot more reps.
Luca Tresh - C (Royals, 1st Base and Auto) - Royals 17th round pick in the 2021 MLB Draft out of NC State with a large overslot payday. Should be able stick behind the plate, but isn't really an ideal receiver at the moment. Offensively Tresh is a pull-side power over hit approach that can struggle with off-speed pitches. Runs above average strikeout rates, but has shown a bit better walk rates in the little time he's had in affiliated ball. A floor of a backup/platoon catcher with potential for an everyday role if he can improve the hit tool and handle off-speed stuff. Otherwise he's a low average bat that will probably put up 15 - 20 home runs at peak and that is a Tier None catcher.
Shane McGuire - C/1B (Athletics, 1st Paper Retail Auto only) - Younger brother of Reese McGuire of the Blue Jays taken in the 9th round of the 2021 MLB Draft by the Athletics. Like Reese, Shane is a bat first catcher. Shane plays a passable catcher, but also is getting time at 1B to maximize his offensive opportunities. Strong plate approach with high walk rates and low strike out rates. His build would lead you to believe there is double digit pop in the bat, but we haven't seen it yet. Lacking that home run potential, and with his defensive restrictions, it caps his upside. If he can tap into 15 - 20 home run power, suddenly he becomes a halfway viable prospect. Until then, he'll languish in Tier None with the majority of catcher prospects.
Junior Sanchez - SS (Marlins, 1st Base only) - 2019 J2 signee of the Marlins for $1.5 Million has yet to log game time in affiliated ball since being signed. In the summer of 2021, he was moved to the 60-day IL and I still haven't seen a reason why. At the time of his signing, he was seen as more advanced on the offensive side of the ball with a good plate approach and line drive power from the left hand side. But given the lack of information or video since 2019, it's an easy choice to throw him in Tier None until we get something, anything to sink our teeth into.
Robby Martin Jr. - OF (Rockies, 1st Base only) - Rockies 8th round pick in the 2021 MLB draft out of Florida State, Martin doesn't really jump off the page at you in any way. He did put up a big time max exit velo in 2021, but that looks to be an outlier. There is an outside possibility he could grow into a power hitting outfielder type with high strikeout rates (I saw quite a few K's in the video I watched). A fringe guy on the outskirts of prospect lists, for now there isn't much to get excited about. As a potential future Rockies hitter, you have to keep tabs on him, but a collection of average tools-type prospect with no draft pedigree, a collectible team, and a rough start to 2022 will keep him in Tier None.
Braylin Minier - SS (Reds, 1st Base only) - Like fellow Reds prospect Michel Triana, another seven figure signing bonus ($1.8 Million) player in the 2019 J2 class for the Reds. Unlike Triana, Minier's calling card is his defense. His pre-signing video looked like he had a very slick glove and the arm strength to stick at shortstop. A report is out there that he hasn't looked like that at the Complex and could be pushed to a corner infield spot, but I've yet to see any video from the defensive side nor multiple reports confirming this, so I will keep it in mind but not make any judgments until I do see it. All of the hitting video I've seen from the Complex has been really underwhelming. He did not look confident and took a lot of swings with what appeared to be zero intent or desire. His statline has not done anything to change what I saw and it becomes an easy Tier None decision until further notice.
Martin Gimenez - SS (Blue Jays, 1st Base and Auto) - 2021 J15 international signing of the Blue Jays for $2.35 Million out of Venezuela. At 6'3", his frame speaks to potential future power. At some point that might push him from shortstop over to the hot corner and he did spend the majority of his 2021 DSL games at 3B. Some scouts have concerns about his hit tool and handling off-speed stuff. Ultimately very little video, has only had uninspiring DSL reps up to this point, and doesn't have a tool to hang your hat on. Another guy in a long list in this product to check out how he looks in 2022 to see if the opinion changes, but for now a Tier None guy.
Creed Willems - C (Orioles, 1st Auto only) - 2021 8th round pick of the Orioles given a large signing bonus ($1 Million) to forgo his commitment to Texas Christian University. Has a classic catcher's body and probably hasn't missed a meal in his life. Has a hose for an arm behind the plate and should be able to stick there. Has some raw pop but really all of his video highlights are him throwing runners out, so it's not really about the offense with Willems. Easy Tier None slotting until we see some offensive numbers to write home about (we're not even writing to our vacation home at the moment).
Erik Ostberg - C (Rays, 1st Paper Retail Auto only) - 13th round pick of the Rays in the 2017 MLB Draft out of Hartford, Ostberg is a fringe org depth catcher type that popped double digit home runs in 2021. Still not much viability even with that power growth as he's never been praised for his skills behind the plate. Has never been on prospect lists across the industry. Ostberg joins the glob of backup catchers in Tier None.
Louie Varland - RHP (Twins, 1st Paper Retail Auto only) - 15th round pick of the Twins in the 2019 MLB Draft out of Concordia. Excelled in 2021 against Low-A and High-A hitters with his ability to command his arsenal. In 2022, he's been a little less successful, but is still pitching well. Mostly throws two pitches, a plus fastball in the mid-90's and a contact-supressing mid-80's slider. Fringe changeup is used sparingly. Potential backend starter with the bullpen route being an equally probably outcome, both of which lead to a Tier None player.
Jack Carey - RHP (Pirates, 1st Paper Retail Auto only) - 11th round pick of the Pirates in the 2021 MLB Draft out of Duke University. Right-handed pitcher is on the shorter side at 6 feet tall and has had challenges with remaining consistent from start to start. Throws a mid-90's fastball, a low 80's cut slider, and a curveball with good spin that can flash on good days. Backend rotation potential, but that will require the aforementioned consistency to show up. Without it, there isn't much here to be interested in for the hobby. Even with it, it's still likely a backend starter Tier None type.
Franco Aleman - RHP (Guardians, 1st Paper Retail Auto only) - 10th round pick of the Guardians in the most recent 2021 MLB Draft out of the University of Florida. Tall (6'6") and on the skinnier side, he leads with his mid-90's fastball. Curveball is above average and changeup is a distant third pitch. Command and consistency is the name of the game and Aleman has never heard of that game. Did not have a good final season in college and has picked up right where he left off by struggling in pro ball. Cleveland's patented pitching witchcraft always wants me to push their arms up the Tiers list, but I just can't do it with Aleman, who will fall into Tier None.
Simon Muzziotti - OF (Phillies, 1st Base only) - Visa issues prevented us from getting a substantial look at the development of Muzziotti in 2021. The main thing we wanted to see is if he had some more pop in his bat than what we had seen previously, which is single digit home run numbers. Right now he profiles as a table setting contact hitter with decent bat to ball skills and an ability to take a walk and above average speed on the basepaths. At the moment still no power to write home about, so it will be a tough hill to climb to make it even up to Tier 3. For now, a Tier None player with an outside chance to move up to Tier 3 with added power.
Branlyn Jaraba - 3B (Brewers, 1st Base and Auto) - One of the Brewers top signings in the 2018 J2 close, Jaraba was the biggest dollar value signing out of Colombia that year. A third baseman with very few live looks or video out there on him. He's off the prospect radar across the board at this point with a poor performance in the 2019 Dominican League and the 2021 Complex League. Hard to slot him anywhere other than Tier None until there is something substantial to grab onto here.
Jose Pastrano - SS (Guardians, 1st Base only) - Cleveland's top J2 signing in 2019, Pastrano is a switch hitting middle infielder with some speed and contact skills and a good makeup, but absolutely no pop. Looks to have a good approach generating almost as many walks as strikeouts, giving him a decent floor. I saw him short hop some balls on throws to first, but there isn't much video to go on, so I wonder if it was just a time and place thing. If not, he might be forced over to second base, further limiting his upside. Going to be tough to find a way to get him into Tier 3 and will put him in Tier None for the time being as future utility type.
Fran Alduey - SS (Guardians, 1st Base only) - 2021 J15 International signing of Cleveland (just over $1 Million) fits their profile of bat-first middle infielders. Alduey is a switch hitter on the small side (5'7" 140) with good plate skills and the speed to steal bases. Very little video to go on since he's only played in the Dominican, so for now he's a shallow evaluation as a Tier None player until we get to see him stateside.
Elijah Tatis - SS (White Sox, 1st Base and Paper Retail Auto) - Signed by the White Sox in the 2019 J2 class and is the younger brother of Fernando Jr. Struck out close to 50% of his at bats at the Complex in 2021. Still looks physically like he has more growth to come. Doesn't look comfortable in the box or recognize the pitches coming his way. When he does connect, it isn't with much authority. Long way to go before he becomes a relavant prospect. Only reason to be in at the moment is for name value and I am going to guess this will drive his prices a lot higher than they should be.
Yan Contreras - SS (Reds, 1st Auto only) - Very little to go off of since we haven't seen Contreras play affiliated ball since 2019. Missing 2020 was the whole COVID mess, but I could not find any reason why he wasn't playing in 2021. Varying reports on his defensive prowess, but he's got the arm to stick at short at the very least. Raw and lacking on the hitting and power side as of the last reports which feel really stale and with no recent reports nor video to go off of, he's getting the Tier None designation. This ranking is more about lack of information at the moment, so take it almost with a grain of salt until we do see what is going on with Contreras in 2022.
Larry Ernesto - OF (Brewers, 1st Auto only) - 2017 J2 signing of the Brewers out of the Dominican for $1.8 Million. Ernesto has pretty much fallen off the prospect radar since 2019 and I don't see much of a reason yet to put him back on it. Has struggled to hit with his aggressive approach and high strikeout rates at the lowest levels of pro ball. Originally was seen as a player that could grade out to above average tools across the board, but it has yet to come to fruition and the clock is ticking.
Jose Rodriguez - C (Rangers, 1st Base only) - Got a $2 million signing bonus in the 2018 J2 cycle out of Venezuela. Since the signing, has done very little to justify it and at the moment looks like backup catcher org depth type. Tier None slotting until we something of interest.
Zayed Salinas - OF/LHP (Padres, 1st Base only) - Two-way prospect out of Mexico that the Padres signed back in 2019. Not a ton of information out there on Salinas but it looks like he is focused on the outfield part of his game according to sparse statlines - his card lists both OF and P, but it is a photo of him swinging the bat. Got a brief taste of the Complex in 2021 and some time at instructs, but he's mostly been off the radar. Next to no video nor any reports and he's off of pretty much everyone's prospect lists. What little there is shows some swing and miss in his game. One final note is that his name is Ruben Zayed Salinas, so keep that in mind when looking him up. Due to the lack of information all around, Salinas will fall into Tier None until more is known.
Enoy Jimenez - SS/OF (White Sox, 1st Paper Retail Auto only) - International signing of Eloy's younger brother Enoy back in 2018. Pretty much no info out there on Enoy other than he has played in the Domincan League in 2019 and 2021 without much fanfare. Little to no power judging by his statline. A no-name player here wouldn't even pop on our radar, but being the younger brother of an MLB slugger will bring some speculators into his cards. No real reason yet to buy in outside of the name value, so he's a Tier None player for me until I get eyes on him.
Tyler Esplin - OF (Red Sox, 1st Paper Retail Auto only) - 7th round pick of the Red Sox in the 2017 MLB draft out of the Florida prep ranks. Average defender in the outfield corners. Decent walk rates. Everything else is fringe and his profile is trending towards org depth as he is falling off of prospect radars into Tier None.
Robert Dominguez - RHP (Mets, 1st Base and Auto) - Big time fastball velocity jump in 2019 into the high 90's got Dominguez a deal with the Mets after not getting signed in his first eligible year in 2018. Two pitch guy at the moment with the Slider (which some have called a curveball) being his best secondary. Changeup is his third pitch but it hasn't shown to be a reliable secondary at the moment. Most likely a bullpen arm, but the Mets will give him every opportunity to be a starter. Unfortunately, he got unspecified arm surgery back in March after experiencing shoulder issues in 2021 that cements his status as a Tier None pitcher.
Bryan Woo - RHP (Mariners, 1st Paper Retail Auto only) - 2021 6th rounder out of Cal Poly taken by the Mariners despite having to get Tommy John surgery. Features a mid-90s fastball and a plus slider with evaluators believing there was move velocity and development to come. Definite reliever risk, especially with a fresh TJ surgery on the chart now. With how deep the Mariners starting pitching is, they probably won't have huge incentive to push him to start. Going to be hard to see a way to get slotted anywhere but Tier None
Dakota Mekkes - RHP (Cubs, 1st Paper Retail Auto only) - 10th round selection of the Cubs in the 2016 draft is a big boy, clocking in at 6'7" and 275 pounds. Three average pitches led by a fastball in the low 90's. Slider and changeup are the main secondaries. Command is a challenge. Can throw multiple innings in relief, but has pitched in the pen since he was drafted. Not sure what injury he had, but he is expected to come back from whatever it is this month. And I've already spent too much time talking about a career middle reliever. Mekkes is a Tier None prospect.
Danny Watson - RHP (Yankees, 1st Paper Retail Auto only) - 15th round pick in the 2021 MLB draft by the Yankees out of VCU. Very tall (6'7"), skinnier relief arm that throws from a sidearm slot. Fastball sits low to mid-90's and can have a ton of arm-side run. Main secnodary is a slider. Looks like an uncomfortable at bat with the little I could find out there. Not a ton to go off of, but I am pretty comfortable in saying this is a Tier None profile.
Henry Henry - RHP (Padres, 1st Paper Retail Auto only) - 2015 International signing of the Padres out of the Dominican Republic, Henry Henry has inevitably transitioned from a starter to a bullpen role. Also, inevitably, if/when his cards will be pulled, the jokes will flow freely. It's kinda hard not to make a joke joke when someone has identical first and last names. Mostly a fastball/slider arsenal, there isn't much to be interested in here. He's also struggled in 2022, further dampening any hobby money being thrown his way. Tier None None.
Juan Querecuto - SS/3B/RHP (Mariners, 1st Auto only) - 2017 J2 signing of the Mariners out of Venezuela as a shortstop. Hasn't had much success and lost some of the 2019 season due to meniscus surgery. And now we find out in 2022 he is transitioning to pitching. I feel pretty safe in saying that this is #notgreat for his prospect status and definitely not great for his hobby value. Haven't seen him pitch yet, but I can again feel safe in saying that this leads to a Tier None ranking.
Nate Fassnacht - 3B (Phillies, 1st Paper Retail Auto only) - 8th round pick of the Phillies in the 2019 MLB Draft out of George Washington. Was trending as org depth utility player type but retired back in March. Guess were looking at a friends and family tier and that's about it.
NOT QUITE THE MAIN ATTRACTION
Their are rookies and vets that are also included in the product, but they are rarely the sought after cards in any Bowman release. All base rookie and vets are paper only (no chrome), but you can still get colored parallels. There are really hard to hit chrome rookie autographs as well. The biggest draw here is Wander Franco rookie cards and probably to a lesser extent given his lack of performance so far in 2022, Oneil Cruz. I doubt the base rookie cards will hold much value, but colored parallels and ESPECIALLY Wander rookie autos will bring in a lot of coin.
FINAL THOUGHTS
I like the depth of this product, and they sure as heck stocked it FULL of 1st Bowman prospects. In addition, 2021 Bowman hasn’t totally stood the test of time, even if some of the top guys have fallen and others have stepped up in their place. Getting a fair amount of guys I think have a good shot at providing hobby value gives me hope that this is at leeast a good product, even if it’s not great. The addition of Jack Leiter, Brady House autos, and Kyle Harrison (this is a PC player of mine as a Giants fan) would have elevated it to the next level. All in all, it gets the thumbs up.