College baseball begins on Friday with questions abound surrounding the 2022 MLB Draft. We’ve got five months until the best players in the country will hear their names called for an opportunity to jump into pro ball. So much will change between now and then. Here are ten things we’re watching as college baseball kicks off.
1. Which college arms will ascend into a weaker college pitching class?
It’s an unseasonably weak year for college pitching, though those who follow the draft certainly know that by now. Miami’s Carson Palmquist is one guy lobbying for a spot at the top of the 2022 class, but will his unconventional mechanics and lack of a track record derail his helium? It happens every year; guys come out of nowhere to snag a spot in the top 20 picks. Will Gonzaga’s Gabriel Hughes bully his way to the top? Can Bryce Hubbart parlay a big Cape performance into bigger stuff in 2022? Can Jonathan Cannon take the next step in his development? One will one of the Oklahoma State trio of horses (Victor Mederos, Justin Campbell, Bryce Osmond) jump into that upper-tier? Time will tell.
2. Will Landon Sims establish himself as the runaway top college arm?
The 2022 college pitching appears anemic. Whether by injuries or unproven talent, the blue chips at the very top of the class appear rather thin right now. Sims is the lead dog at this point in time. Will his transition into a starting role come without warts? Will the changeup he’s developed this winter prove a valuable weapon against the opposition. The fastball-slider combo is easily the best one-two punch in the class, but will the two-pitch mix be enough to warrant a Top 10 selection in July?
3. Can Carson Palmquist flourish in a starting role?
A dynamic closer for Miami for the better part of his young career, Palmquist moves into a rotation spot in 2022 with a chance to shoot up boards should he perform. It’s an unconventional delivery with a lot of levers and moving parts, some likening it to Chris Sale’s operation. Sale is an outlier, so scouts will want to see Palmquist check a lot of boxes over extended outings this spring. Will his command hold up? Will the velocity stay strong into the middle innings? Most importantly, does his stuff hold up through a second and third time through a lineup. Palmquist has plenty of questions to answer, but immense opportunity in front of him.
4. Which college shortstop will outpace the pack?
2022 has a polarizing pool of college shortstops, all providing unique skillsets and quirky traits on the field. Vanderbilt shortstop Carter Young has the defensive chops, the arm, and the power, but some doubt his hit tool. Coastal Carolina’s Eric Brown has all the tools a team could ask for, but his loading mechanism in his swing is unconventional, an aesthetic that doesn’t fit everyone’s flavor. Campbell’s Zach Neto is much like Brown in that he’s got loud tools flashing across the board, but will the narrative of a loud, handsy swing get muzzled by his thump in the box? Can Kentucky’s Ryan Ritter or Santa Barbara’s Jordan Sprinkle impact the ball enough to vault themselves to the top? And the headliner, will Brooks Lee stay healthy and prove he can play shortstop at the pro level?
5. Will Carter Young brush off the swing-and-miss from 2021?
For quite some time now, Young has been regarded a premier draft prospect. But his hit tool came into question in 2021 when his contact rate fell into the 70-percent range. Young was banged up for much of last season with a shoulder injury, and he’s ready to rock and roll this spring. Scouts will want to see better bat-to-ball skills in 2022, and see that contact rate jump near that primo 80-percent range. Young has a rare blend of game power and the plus glove at a premium position. If the hit tool cements itself as better than what we saw in 2021, he’s a good bet to go in the first round.
6. Will Josh Kasevich pull the ball with authority?
While Kasevich may be just a tick below the shortstops listed above in terms of defensive ability and athleticism, where he does flourish is in the underlying data. Kasevich posted one of the highest contact rates in the country last season. More impressive still, his peak exit velocities were pound-for-pound some of the gaudiest you could find. But Kasevich rarely pulled the ball with any authority. He was too opposite-field heavy last season. If this Duck finds himself extending to his pull-side in 2022, he could find himself selected in the first round. He’s got a very similar trajectory to that of Jordan Westburg entering the 2020 season.
7. How will Jacob Berry fare with extended reps at third base?
Berry jumped at the opportunity to follow his head coach Jay Johnson to Louisiana State in search of a national title. He logged just a handful of opportunities at third base in 2021, spending his time almost exclusively as Arizona’s designated hitter. Scouts will want to see whether Berry can handle third base as a pro. He’ll get more opportunities to prove as much in 2022. His profile at third base would obviously carry far more draft-value than should he be deemed a designated hitter, or to a lesser degree, a first basemen by evaluators.
8. Can Chase DeLauter continue over his Cape momentum into 2022?
DeLauter has been our No. 1 overall prospect since November. We’re buying the toolset and ultra-physical, athletic physique moving into pro ball. DeLauter was a force on the Cape, but he’s hidden no longer. Anchoring the James Madison lineup, he likely won’t get much to hit early on this season. He’s historically patient and mature in his approach, though that will be tested to a new level in 2022. Should DeLauter find himself taken super-high in July’s draft, it’s probably safe to assume he’s run a high on-base percentage and found a way to pummel mistakes in advantageous situations.
9. Where is Jud Fabian’s bat-to-ball progress?
Much was made of Fabian and his strikeout woes in 2021, but 2022 is a fresh start and the opportunity to re-write his hit-tool narrative. The Florida Gator centerfielder posted a 64-percent contact rate and a 29-percent strikeout rate last season. But Fabian was streaky in 2021. There were flashes of brilliance. Scouts want to see more bat-to-ball this season. Fabian checks a lot of athletic boxes. If he can prove to evaluators he’s at least an average hitter, he’s a good bet to jump into the first round.
10. Updates on Blade Tidwell, Kumar Rocker, Connor Prielipp, etc. etc…
Tidwell, like many other college arms in this class, was bit by the injury bug in January, suffering from shoulder soreness delaying the start of his 2022 campaign. At this stage, it’s unknown just how long he’ll be out, but should the injury be serious enough to derail a large chunk of his season, a weak college pitching class becomes even shakier. Hopefully by March, there’s some clarity on Tidwell’s status moving forward. Rocker has been a bit of a medical enigma since he was draft by the Mets in 2021. Nobody is quite sure what’s going on here, but it’s likely we’ll get further clarity in March or April with scouts clamoring for a look at the former Vandy star. Prielipp went under the knife with Tommy John last season, and while it’s unlikely he does any pitching for Alabama in 2022, there’s reason to believe he could do some light work throwing for scouts as the summer draws near.