The Big 10 has a history of pushing out solid big leaguers. 2022 is no different. There’s a handful of significant prospects coming by way of the Rust Belt once again.
Hitters
Justin Janas, Illinois, First Base
Bats/Throws: L/R
Height/Weight: 6’3/205
‘21 Stats: .391/.506/.449; 179 PA, 0 HR, 20 BB, 19 K, 0 SB, 7 XBH
You’d be hard pressed to find a final batting line as extreme as the one Justin Janas put up last year for Illinois. Janas led the conference in on base percentage and captured the Big 10 batting crown with a final average nine points shy of .400. However, Janas didn’t swat a single homer during the spring and finished with just seven extra base hits overall. His isolated power (ISO) was .058 and only 13% of his hits went for extra bases. Those rates would be extremely low for any college ballplayer but it’s especially paltry for a hitter that spent most of his time at DH and projects to be a first baseman long term. Janas played in the Northwoods League over the summer and the final line there was eerily similar. Janas hit .402/.502/.529 for the Kenosha Kingfish while showing a slight uptick in his power numbers. He hit a couple of homers over the summer and his ISO and XBH% increased to .127 and 23% respectively. Over the spring and summer combined, Janas hit .397 and reached base in over 50% of his 394 plate appearances. He also walked (46 BB) more often than he struck out (44 K).
As you can guess, Janas controls the strike zone extremely well. He doesn’t chase or swing and miss much and he’ll make pitchers work by running up pitch counts. Janas has an up the middle approach and a good chunk of his contact goes the opposite way. The bat path is very flat so while Janas is capable of spraying the ball line-to-line, most of that contact is of the ground ball and line drive variety. Janas has a long and lean frame at 6’3 and 205 lbs so there is a decent amount of size and strength to project on. The left handed stroke and the results from the 2021 season are tantalizing but his power production will need to take a significant step forward as a first base prospect. Janas could receive day two interest if the power shows up. The Mets took a few hitters with this kind of profile (Matt Rudick, Wyatt Young, Drake Osborn) on day three of the draft last year.
Peyton Williams, Iowa, First Base
Bats/Throws: L/L
Height/Weight: 6’5/250
‘21 Stats: .295/.470/.582; 164 PA, 6 HR, 34 BB, 37 K, 0 SB, 22 XBH
Williams is instantly noticeable on the diamond because of his huge frame and obvious physicality. At 6-foot-5 and 250 lbs, Williams has the raw strength and power to do a ton of damage at the plate. He combines that strength with some of the best bat speed in the Big 10 conference which allows him to post elite exit velos when he squares the ball up. It goes without saying that the power potential is massive but it hasn’t completely shown up in games to date. Williams left the yard just 6 times in 2022, although 61% of his hits went for extra bases. His ability to lift the ball consistently remains a question. The approach is geared for all fields contact and with his raw power and strength he can hit the ball out to any part of the park. Williams has good plate discipline and a clear plan at the plate that should allow him to see a healthy chunk of pitches and reach base via walk. There is a good amount of swing and miss in the zone and he’s unlikely to hit for a high average as a pro. Because of that it’s going to be important that he shows more over-the-fence type power especially since he’s limited to first base defensively.
There isn’t much speed or defensive value to speak of though Williams does move pretty well for his size. He’s maxed out physically and will likely straddle the first base/designated hitter line as he ages. Williams dealt with some injuries early during the 2021 season so perhaps a healthy and fresh start will facilitate more power gains this spring. There is early/mid day 2 (rounds 3-6) potential if it all comes together for Williams during his 3rd year at Iowa. The overall profile is reminiscent of a player like Lucas Duda.
Bobby Zmarzlak, Maryland, Outfield
Bats/Throws: R/R
Height/Weight: 6’5/205
‘21 Stats: .286/.398/.536; 133 PA, 7 HR, 20 BB, 44 K, 3 SB, 14 XBH
Bobby Zmarzlak was one of the better northeast prep bats from the 2019 draft class to reach campus. He struggled in a very small sample of 37 plate appearances during 2020 and wasn’t fully healthy last spring. Zmarzlak was batting a meager .194 entering May but was able to finish the 2021 season strong as he raised his average nearly 100 points and he hit 3 of his 7 homers after May 1st. He was also named to the Greenville Regional All-Tournament Team thanks to a couple of multi-hit games that included a two homer game. Zmarzlak instantly stands out with his big and strong build that includes good length and some remaining physical projection. The raw power is at least a plus tool for Zmarzlak and he moves pretty well for his size. He was an above average runner as a prep but he’s slowed down since then and it remains to be seen how much speed he retains moving forward. Zmarzlak didn’t play in the outfield much for Maryland but he projects as a corner outfielder, possibly a left fielder. It’s the bat and, more specifically, the in-game power that will drive Zmarzlak’s draft stock.
I think we can expect double digit bombs from Zmarzlak this coming spring assuming he remains healthy. He looked the part of a middle of the lineup masher towards the end of 2021 and he continued to hit over the summer (1.210 OPS, 69 PA) in the Cal Ripken Collegiate League. Zmarzlak has the kind of power that can play to all fields and in any environment. He’s adept at going to right-center and is able to hit the ball out of the park that way even at lower launch angles. There is significant swing and miss to Zmarzlak’s profile which may ultimately hold him back despite the physicality and power. Zmarzlak struck out in 33% of his plate appearances last year, a rate that is simply way too high for any college bat. Even during his hot streak to close out the season, Zmarzlak continued to rack up K’s with 4 multi-K games and 14 K’s combined for the months of May and June. There looks to be some pitch recognition issues which causes him to expand the zone too frequently. More consistent reps and game experience would certainly aid Zmarzlak with improving in that area. College bats tend to see an uptick in their 3rd year of action and we’re at that point with Zmarzlak. He has the potential to be one of the better power bats in the conference if things start to click.
Ted Burton, Michigan, Second Base/Third Base
Bats/Throws: R/R
Height/Weight: 6’3/190
‘21 Stats: .342/.434/.667; 137 PA, 7 HR, 15 BB, 29 K, 3 SB, 21 XBH
Burton checks in at #279 on the Prospects Live top 300 after a surprising breakout season with Michigan last spring. He was named a 1st Team All-American in the Big 10 at second base though he also spent some time at first and third base. Burton was draft eligible as a 2nd year player in 2021 but wasn’t selected. That’s not too much of a surprise as Burton’s emergence was relatively late in the ‘21 draft cycle. Burton’s lean and athletic frame is noteworthy as Burton looks like a good fit physically at third base with power projection moving forward. He’s a raw defender on the dirt presently but he shows quick reactions and enough arm strength for third base. Burton will need to improve the fluidity of his actions and the utility of his throwing arm to avoid a move to first base or the outfield. We’ll likely see Burton bounce around the infield this spring and he could get meaningful reps at short, third, and second base. I have Burton slotted at second base for now but that could change depending on how he looks defensively.
As a hitter, Burton shows both in-game power potential and feel for finding the barrel. The swing is low-maintenance with a quick and short swing that is direct to the ball. Burton showed a good deal of over-the-fence power last spring with 7 long balls in just 137 plate appearances. With extended playing time, expect Burton to eclipse double digit homers in 2022. Burton does a good job spraying hard contact to all fields but he’ll need to shore up some swing and miss issues. Burton swung through 40/45 grade velocity when I saw him play against Central Michigan during regionals and his K% of 21% for the season was on the higher side. Still, there’s a lot to like here with the frame, feel to hit, power, and potential to play on the dirt. Burton could slot in just about anywhere on day 2 of the draft.
Clark Elliott, Michigan, Outfield
Bats/Throws: L/R
Height/Weight: 6’0/185
‘21 Stats: .270/.403/.428; 186 PA, 5 HR, 30 BB, 34 K, 8 SB, 14 XBH
Elliott was a slappy, table-setter type for the Wolverines last spring as the team’s everyday right fielder. He had a solid 2021 season and performed similarly, at least initially, on the Cape. But then Elliott caught fire offensively and he hit just about everything in sight to close out his summer campaign. The final line was mighty impressive at .344/.464/.478 in 110 plate appearances with nearly as many walks (17) as strikeouts (20). Despite facing tougher competition with Hyannis, Elliott managed to boost his OPS over 100 points compared to his spring performance. It wasn’t only his offensive game that saw a surge, Elliott showed off some baserunning savvy and he also handled a move to centerfield with relative ease. There may not have been another CCBL bat who completely transformed and improved his overall draft profile more than Elliott.
The overall toolset now looks fairly well-rounded. Clark is a plus athlete with a lot of quick twitch and his movements are loose and fluid on video. At the plate, Clark does an excellent job handling velocity and he can cover both the top and bottom of the zone against hard stuff. The swing is very compact with quick moving hands and plenty of bat speed. He’ll need to show that he can handle quality breaking balls and offspeed pitches this spring. The approach is contact-oriented but there’s enough gap-to-gap power to play at the next level. With his remaining projection and perhaps a bat path/swing change, Clark could potentially grow into near average power. That could be enough as Elliott flashed centerfield tools during the summer. The foundation is set for a prototypical top of the order/centerfield type profile. Elliott has 2-3 round potential if he shows that his Cape performance was no fluke. He shares some similarities with Donta’ Williams who was a 4th round pick by the Orioles last year.
Matt Wood, Penn State, Catcher
Bats/Throws: L/R
Height/Weight: 5’10/190
‘21 Stats: .295/.384/.468; 165 PA, 4 HR, 19 BB, 25 K, 1 SB, 15 XBH
Matt Wood was included towards the end of our recent top 300 board coming in at #260 overall. He was named a 2nd Team All-American in the Big Ten after a solid first full season for Penn State. Wood isn’t overly physical at 5’10 and 190 lbs but he’s a lefty hitting catcher who rarely swings and misses. The contact rate in 2021 was elite for a college catcher and he’s able to find the barrel for line drive contact. There isn’t much power projection but Wood did show some more pop this summer in the New England Collegiate Baseball League (NECBL) where he hit 5 homers in 137 plate appearances and raised his isolated power from .173 to .198. Wood is a strong athlete with an average throwing arm. He has the makings of a steady defender behind the plate as he gains more experience and reps this spring.
This is a strong year for college catchers with a clearly defined top tier of backstops that profile as 1-2 round picks. Wood would be an attractive option in the middle rounds of day 2 for teams that miss out on that upper tier. Another strong offensive performance as a lefty hitting catcher, a valued commodity, might give him the draft floor of someone like Drew Millas who was a late 7th round pick by the A’s (now with the Nationals) in 2019. Millas was #21 on our midseason prospect list for the Nationals.
Pitchers
Cole Kirschsieper, Illinois, Left-Handed Pitcher
Height/Weight: 5’11/170
‘21 Stats: 38.2 IP, 5.82 ERA, 43 H, 9 HR, 13 BB, 48 K, 3.69 K/BB
Cole Kirschsieper had about as good of a summer as a college arm could possibly have in 2021. The Illinois southpaw spent his summer with three different teams in the Appy League, the CCBl, and with the USA CNT. Kirschsieper dominated everywhere he pitched and he finished the summer with a combined 0.25 ERA, allowed just 12 hits, 17 walks, and racked up 54 punchouts. Kirschsieper didn’t have anywhere near that kind of success during the spring as he finished with an ERA approaching 6.00 with 10 hits allowed per 9 innings and 2.1 HR/9. Kirschsieper’s success is even more puzzling considering the stuff/arsenal isn’t particularly loud. Kirschsieper has spent most of his time pitching out of the Illini bullpen last season but is expected to fill the Friday night ace role for Illinois.
Watching Kirschsieper pitch, you can see that a lot of his game is built around deception. Between his short arm action, lower ¾ slot, and the way his pitches play off one another, Kirschsieper makes for an uncomfortable at bat. The fastball has generally been in the 88-90 range, though there could be a couple ticks of velocity still in the tank. Kirschsieper is smaller at around 5’11 to 6’0 in height but there looks like a bit more physicality to build on moving forward. The fastball command has been spotty in the past but the pitch really darts with both sinking and tailing action. The two-seam shape comes from a crossfire delivery and a tough angle which makes it hard for hitters to square up consistently. When he’s able to spot the fastball to either side of the plate the pitch can play well above its velocity. His primary out pitch is his changeup. The pitch can flash plus with fade and late tumbling action making it a powerful weapon against righties. His breaking ball is an upper 70s slurvy kind of slider that will probably perform better than it grades because of the way Kirschsieper utilizes it and how it plays off of his two-seamer. He’ll also mix in a get-me-over curveball that he can steal strikes with. Kirschsieper is definitely more of a crafty, pitchability lefty than a power arm but the full repertoire and Kirschsieper’s ability to execute his plan allows him to generate a high number of empty swings and ground ball contact. We’ll have to see how Kirschsieper holds up over a full spring in a rotation but the results from the summer are very encouraging. If the command holds up and we start seeing more low 90s velocity Kirschsieper could work his way into the mid-day two conversation.
Reese Sharp, Indiana, Right-Handed Pitcher
Height/Weight: 6’3/225
‘21 Stats: 11.1 IP, 3.18 ERA, 9 H, 1 HR, 6 BB, 14 K, 2.33 K/BB
Reese Sharp is one of my picks to click this spring. He's been on my radar since being an unsigned 28th round pick by the Giants in 2019. Sharp didn't get on the mound in 2020 and only threw 11.1 inning pitched so he's still an unproven commodity. The stuff looks legit and Indiana seems poised to give Sharp a prominent role in their bullpen this spring. Sharp has big time strength and physicality in his 6-foot-3, 225 pound build and he looks the part of a late inning stopper. He moves well on the mound and the arm shows good whip and looseness. Sharp releases from a high slot and it looks like the ball comes out of the hand from a tough, flatter angle. Sharp sat consistently in the 92-93 range last spring and during the summer in the NECBL. His fastball velocity recently took a jump and he now bumps 96 MPH with high spin rates. The pitch gets good rising action giving it swing and miss potential up in the strike zone and he flashes the ability to locate it under the hands of lefties. Sharp shows good feel for his breaker as he can manipulate it to suit his needs. He’ll throw a mid-to-high 70s curveball that gets hard downward action and a low 80s version that has good biting action horizontally. Both versions have swing and miss potential and work well off the fastball. He’ll need to show that he can command his arsenal effectively and hold his stuff over the course of a full college season. There’s late inning potential if Sharp continues to show the kind of growth that we’ve seen over the past year. He could draw interest in the middle rounds (4-6) on day 2 of the draft.
Ryan Ramsey, Maryland, Left-Handed Pitcher
Height/Weight: 6’0/195
‘21 Stats: 37.2 IP, 1.67 ERA, 23 H, 5 HR, 12 BB, 43 K, 3.58 K/BB
The profile for Ryan Ramsey isn't completely dissimilar from Cole Kirschsieper who I talked about earlier. They are both undersized lefties that show underwhelming fastball velocity and were primarily used as bullpen pieces during the spring. However, there are some differences between the two lefty hurlers. Ramsey is less physical than Kirschieper and doesn't offer much in the way of physical projection. He also attacks hitters with more of a north-south philosophy while Kirschsieper works mostly east-west. Ramsey was one of the top relievers in the Big 10 in 2021 allowing just 5.5 hits per 9 innings while striking out over 10 batters per 9 which led to a sub-2.00 ERA. The success continued over the summer in the NECBL where Ramsey transitioned to a starting role and once again had a sub-2.00 ERA, allowed less than 5 hits per 9 and struck out over 14 batters per 9.
Ramsey's fastball sits right around 89-90 MPH and can touch 92 MPH at times. The pitch comes in at a good, flat angle thanks to his over-the-top arm slot. Ramsey's fastball has shown to be a whiff inducer when located effectively despite the below average velocity. Ramsey has shown quality feel for commanding his riding fastball up in the zone and to both sides of the plate. But Ramsey's bread and butter pitch is a tight spinning curveball that will range anywhere between 75-79 MPH. The curveball pairs very well with the fastball as it allows Ramsey to attack hitters from a different plane as the curve has some serious downward bite. Ramsey also has a short slider that can get into the low 80s which offers a different look. Finally, Ramsey has a usable changeup that has flashed potential with fading action and depth but it will require further development and more stability. The tools aren't especially loud but the results have been impressive. Ramsey has day two potential as a pitchability lefty with a legitimate four pitch arsenal that he mixes with success. He'll be a weekend rotation piece for the Terrapins in 2022.
Sam Ireland, Minnesota, Right-Handed Pitcher
Height/Weight: 6’4/210
‘21 Stats: 37.1 IP, 4.10 ERA, 35 H, 7 HR, 16 BB, 35 K, 2.19 K/BB
Ireland enters his third season with the Golden Gophers, splitting his time between hitting and pitching. He's had a degree of success on both sides of the ball but he intrigues me more on the mound. Ireland doesn't have a ton of pitching reps despite a couple of years of college experience under his belt. Besides the split focus on hitting and pitching, Ireland had abbreviated seasons the past two years. One of those seasons was shortened by the pandemic and the other by an injury. Ireland has just 45.1 innings to his name to date but has the potential to blossom into a reliable arm for Minnesota.
The combination of size, physicality, and athleticism is excellent and it's one of the major reasons why Ireland remains on my watch list. The hope is that with increased focus on pitching and better luck with his health, Ireland could start turning his physical tools into sustained performance on the mound. Despite his size, Ireland isn't a true power arm. He flashes some pitching savvy and feel for commanding a three pitch mix which is impressive considering his lack of reps. He throws a good deal of strikes and repeats his athletic delivery well. Ireland's fastball can creep into the mid 90s at it's best but will generally stick in the 87-92 range over longer outings. The fastball has good tailing action and some sink when thrown to his arm side. He also has a reliable secondary pitch in a slider that gets significant sweeping movement. The slider flashes swing and miss potential and can be effective to both righty and lefty bats when thrown with conviction. Ireland's changeup is definitely a distant third pitch but there's some feel for it and his best changeups can be effective against lefty bats. Ireland lacks big velo, doesn't have a true putaway pitch, and hasn't racked up a track record of pitching success to date. However, there's a good athlete and a solid foundation of pitching skills to build on here. Ireland could be an attractive developmental piece for a pro team if he can string together a nice run of starts this spring.
Other Players To Watch
Phillip Glasser, SS, Indiana; Youngstown State transfer- Middle infield defender with a pesky, top of the lineup profile. Lefty hitter who gets on base, can really run, and is a well-regarded defender. Older at 22 but could still work his way into day 2 of the draft territory.
John Modugno, RHP, Indiana- Big, projectable righty who started to blossom towards the end of 2021. Fastball up to 94-95 with a potential plus slider. Raw pitcher with minimal collegiate innings.
Jack Perkins, RHP, Indiana; Louisville transfer- Filthy fastball/slider combo that could really project in a pro bullpen. Health and control have been major issues to date. Old for the class, will be 23 in December. Possible “senior discount” target.
Ethan Vecrumba, OF, Indiana- Elite physical specimen and a gifted athlete. Hasn’t gotten on the field much at Indiana but that could change after Vecrumba’s solid summer (.305/.373/.484) in the Northwoods League.
Ethan Hammerberg, RHP, Ohio State- 6’4 righty with size and strength and a power arsenal to match. Fastball up to 96 MPH with a wipeout slider. The development arrow is pointing way up; potential late inning reliever with further growth.
Travis Luensmann, RHP, Penn State; South Carolina transfer- Draft-eligible sophomore that didn’t pitch much in 2021 for the Gamecocks. Expected to have a sizable role for Penn State this spring. Somewhat unknown quantity but there’s size (6’6/235), stuff (up to 95 MPH), and some pedigree.
Johnny Piacentino, OF, Penn State- Middle of the order bopper with some pro tools and extra base pop in centerfield. Performed admirably last season (.875) despite playing through a broken hand. Relatively young for the 2022 college class.
Pablo Lanzarote, C, Purdue; Hinds CC (Juco) transfer- Offensive-minded catcher was an elite performer at the JUCO level at Hinds CC. Projects to receive the bulk of playing time behind the plate for the Boilermakers this spring.
CJ Valdez, SS/2B, Purdue; Yavapai College (Juco) transfer- Smaller build but has a nice power/speed combination and looks like a potential up the middle fit defensively. Has the tools/profile to perform his way into the draft conversation. Potential sleeper.
Curtis Washington Jr., OF, Purdue; Wabash Valley College (Juco) transfer -Arkansas kickback who arrives at Purdue via Wabash Valley College. Premium athlete with plus speed and defense. Shows some usable power but there’s some hit tool questions.