And just like that, the inaugural MLB Draft lottery is behind us and we officially have a draft order.
Before we jump into the picks, some housekeeping items. The 2023 MLB Draft will take place from July 9 through July 11 during All-Star festivities in Seattle, Washington. This crop of talent looks strong with college bats and college pitching likely dominating the headlines leading up to the event.
The 2021 and 2022 MLB Drafts were both a bit prep-heavy at the top featuring five and four preps in the Top 10 picks respectively. It was high school shortstops galore. Early projections point to 2023 being a bit heavier on the college side; generally a good sign for the health of a draft class historically speaking. That said, there does appear to be a pair of high school outfielders who should go early.
While we’re ten months out from the event, it does feel as though there are comfortably three specific players being mentioned by evaluators as the primo guys. LSU outfielder Dylan Crews has been a star since high school and most expect him to be a fixture inside the top five for the next calendar year. A 5-tool player, Crews does a little bit of everything very well and has the chance to be a difference maker in a lineup for the next decade. The top arm on the board is pretty clearly Tennessee righty Chase Dollander. A star in the SEC in 2022, Dollander has huge swing-and-miss stuff with three potential plus pitches and significant projection remaining.
1. Pittsburgh Pirates
Dylan Crews, Outfield, LSU
The No. 1 pick, for our money, at this stage, comes down to Crews and Tennessee righty Chase Dollander. It really depends on your what your favorite flavored philosophy is. Dollander projects a top-of-the-rotation horse, though Crews has the potential to be a middle-of-the-order slugger with the potential to play a plus right field. In this case, we’re taking the 5-tool guy that can play every single day. Crews has the pedigree to move quickly through the Pirates system and could handle right field for the better part of a decade in Pittsburgh.
2. Washington Nationals
Chase Dollander, RHP, Tennessee
Not only is Dollander the cream of the crop in terms of college pitching this spring, he’s a metric-darling with unicorn traits that can be extremely tough to find. He checks a lot of boxes. Projection, production, performance and unique data. Dollander has a shot at becoming a frontline starter at the next level with an upper-90s fastball and a plus to double-plus slider. He mixes in an above average changeup that has been un-hittable for lefty bats. If he can repeat his 2022 in the SEC next season, he’s got 1.1 upside. He screams Washington Nationals too. There is a rich history of big conference, big performer starting pitchers going to Washington in the first round.
3. Detroit Tigers
Jacob Gonzalez, Shortstop, Ole Miss
Gonzalez fits the new Scott Harris mold beautifully with an 87 percent contact rate in 2022, coupled with above average-to-plus exit velocities. He’s an average shortstop now, though he may outgrow the position. That said, he’s more than athletic enough to stay on the dirt. Gonzalez is one of the rare prospects with a high floor and an intriguing blend of upside and up-the-middle value.
4. Texas Rangers
Walker Jenkins, Outfield, South Brunswick
The Rangers heavily considered high school talent in 2022, but with Jenkins and Max Clark still on the board here, it’s quite a win. Jenkins has the potential to be a 5-tool centerfielder with massive raw power and a polished hit tool that keeps his floor rather high. Jenkins has had some bumps and bruises keep him off the field this year at times, but when healthy, he’s looked like the best player in the country.
5. Minnesota Twins
Wyatt Langford, Outfield, Florida
The Twins really luck out here, landing a true thumper in the draft. Langford has plus raw power, above average wheels and the potential to maybe stick in centerfield. The Twins have a long, rich history of selecting power-hitting corner outfield types, and Langford may be the best of the bunch.
6. Oakland Athletics
Max Clark, Outfield, Franklin Community
The Athletics are a ways away from competing, but they may get a lot closer if they land Clark. A potential 5-tool, dynamic talent, Clark brings arguably the best hit tool on the prep ranks, with serious wheels and elite level instincts in centerfield.
7. Cincinnati Reds
Jacob Wilson, Infield, Grand Canyon
The Reds fell a bit further than they’d like in the lottery, but this is a deep, deep draft and Wilson has the look of a guy that could play 15 years in pro ball and hit .300 every single year. We’re talking about a guy who struck out just seven times TOTAL in 2022. Truly elite bat-to-ball skills.
8. Kansas City Royals
Rhett Lowder, RHP, Wake Forest
There’s a lot of good college arms in this class and Lowder may be the best of the lot. Up to 97 with a plus, maybe better, changeup. Lowder has creative ways to get batters of both handedness out. His slider is solid average, maybe a tick better right now, but he’s got a whippy, athletic operation on the mound and some evaluators think there’s more in the tank coming.
9. Colorado Rockies
Aidan Miller, 3B, JW Mitchell
Miller is a physical freak with tremendous bat speed and the potential for future double-plus power at his peak. Some have compared the entire profile to an Austin Riley type of performer with a tick better defense at the hot corner. Miller has really begun answering questions on the future hit tool this past summer and has seen his stock surge up draft boards following every showcase/tournament.
10. Miami Marlins
Enrique Bradfield, Outfield, Vanderbilt
The Marlins have seemingly rotated a million different names in and out of centerfield at loanDepot park over the past three seasons, a trend that needs to change. Bradfield brings a plus hit tool and 80-grade, elite speed that can be a difference maker, a dynamic tool all over the field. Bradfield brings athletic impact to the Marlins organization not seen since Dee Gordon, tacked onto game-changing defense in centerfield. He may never hit double-digit homers, but neither did Kenny Lofton. The Marlins could use some contact skills at the top of their lineup and Bradfield has a chance to be the first draftee to see the big leagues, potentially as early as late-2024.
11. Los Angeles Angels
Hurston Waldrep, RHP, Florida
Waldrep, a transfer from Southern Miss, is a bulldog on the mound with an intimidating presence and the pure stuff to back it up. It’s a double-plus fastball, up to 98 with big ride and significant bat-missing qualities. He offers a mid-80s slider with two-plane break and tunnel that’s given righties fits. There’s a solid average changeup in there too, though he’s yet to really unleash it with much regularity. The Angels need pitching and this would be a big get.
12. Arizona Diamondbacks
Brayden Taylor, Infield, TCU
The Diamondbacks are close to dropkicking open a competitive window that the Arizona faithful should be awfully excited about. They’ve got prospects or full-time fixtures at several positions, so the team has the luxury of grabbing the best player that fits their models. Taylor checks a lot of boxes. He makes a ton of contact and flashes average power with the versatility to play anywhere on the field. Taylor is one of the most decorated players in college baseball at handling high velocity. He could move quick and see Chase Field by 2025.
13. Chicago Cubs
Kevin McGonigle, Infield, Monsignor Bonner
The Cubs haven’t shied away from high-end prep prospects. McGonigle has the looks of a stud second baseman at the next level, a guy who has a chance to hit .300 year in and year out. He’s got double-digit homerun potential too. McGonigle may have the longest track record of pure hit-ability in this class going back several years.
14. Boston Red Sox
Noble Meyer, RHP, Jesuit
The Red Sox have been all over the map in drafts in recent history. They’ve enjoyed going to the West Coast and grabbing high-ceiling prospects, and Meyer fits that bill. He’s been up to 99 with an above average slider and a changeup that flashes serious potential. And it’s a premium body too.
15. Chicago White Sox
Thomas White, LHP, Phillips Academy
White has been reasonably famous in this class for quite some time. It’s an ultra-premium body with mid-90s velocity coming from the left side. White has a ton of deceptive qualities in his delivery, and a short-arm mid three-quarters delivery that makes it incredibly tough for hitters to pick up his stuff. It’s not all too dissimilar to Noah Schultz, the White Sox 2021 first round pick. This would be quite the two-headed monster in a future Chicago rotation.
16. San Francisco Giants
Paul Skenes, RHP/1B, LSU
The Giants put so much stock into leadership qualities, makeup and attitude. It may not get any better than Skenes. A transfer out of Air Force, Skenes is an explosive righty with an upper-90s fastball and a hard, mid-80s slider that can induce a ton of whiffs. He mixes in a fringier cutter and a changeup, both of which has proven to be potential future weapons. Skenes has a premium body and big athleticism with more projection ahead of him. He’s been a dynamo on offense for the past few seasons as well, though most believe he’s a future mid-rotation horse.
17. Baltimore Orioles
Arjun Nimmala, Shortstop, Strawberry Crest
The Orioles are an analytically-motivated, model-driven bunch. Nimmala really jumps off the page for a number of reasons. He’ll be just 17 years old on draft day. He boasts some of the most obscene exit velocities in the class. His swing plane is fully-optimized. Combine all this with the high likelihood he’ll stick at the shortstop position and this could be a real steal at pick no. 17 if you believe the hit tool is good enough to buoy the other tools.
18. Milwaukee Brewers
Travis Honeyman, Outfield, Boston College
The Brewers have gone almost exclusively in the direction of draft college bats in recent drafts and they’ll have quite a crop to pick from here if they repeat that approach. Honeyman had a massive 2022 at school and followed that up by impressing on the Cape, an impressive acclaim in a down year offensively out there. Honeyman can handle any of the three outfield position, but there are plenty of evaluators who believe he’s a future plus defensive centerfielder. The bat projects above average as well.
19. Tampa Bay Rays
Colt Emerson, SS, John Glenn
Emerson is a name that’s soaring up boards after a huge summer. He’s got lightning quick hands, both at the plate and in the field. Emerson showcased plenty of pull-side juice this summer too. He’s got a soft glove and a strong arm, both well-suited to stick at shortstop long-term. We know how much the Tampa love a high-upside prep in the first round.
20. Toronto Blue Jays
Maui Ahuna, SS, Tennessee
Ahuna is coming off a massive year at Kansas. Now a Tennessee Volunteer, he’ll have a shot to establish himself a bonafide first rounder this spring. There’s some swing and miss in his game, but Ahuna is the rare shortstop with the glove and athleticism to stick at the position, as well as the batted-ball data to suggest star upside.
21. St. Louis Cardinals
Tommy Troy, IF/OF, Stanford
After a big 2022 campaign with the Cardinal, Troy turned into a different animal this past summer on the Cape, crushing baseball and showcasing his raw power. He’s an extremely versatile player who can play anywhere on the diamond. His tools are mostly average across the board; a sum of his parts type of guy. This is the type of player the Cardinals have maximized in recent years.
22. Seattle Mariners
Cade Kuehler, RHP, Campbell
Kuehler has tremendous arm talent, up to 99 with significant carry on his heater. He features a nasty slider that flashes plus, as well as a changeup that has proven to induce swing-and-miss from lefties. His ability to throw more strikes and get ahead of hitters will be important in his development as a starter, and it’ll be critical should he hope to go in this range. Kuehler has the stuff to go toward the top-half of the first round if it all comes together in 2023.
23. Cleveland Guardians
Ross Dunn, LHP, Arizona State
Dunn was heralded as having the best stuff on a Florida State staff in 2022 that shut down it’s opponents on the regular. Now a Sun Devil, he’ll take his four-pitch mix and impressive pitch metrics to Tempe where he hopes to establish himself as the nation’s premier southpaw. Dunn has an explosive arsenal with a fastball up to 96 and a ton of deception.
24. Atlanta Braves
Teddy McGraw, RHP, Wake Forest
McGraw features the best sinker at the top of the 2023 class with extreme boring action into right-handed bats. He’s dabbled with a four-seamer as well, a move that might behoove his future production given his low-release. McGraw has a high-spin slider that’s peaked north of 3000 rpm too. There’s also feel for an average changeup in this profile. McGraw needs to miss more bats in 2023, but he’s got the pure stuff to go much higher than this.
25. San Diego Padres
Roch Cholowsky, SS, Hamilton
Cholowsky might have the best glove of all of the high school shortstops in this class and the bloodlines teams are drawn to of late. The bat may only be average, but Cholowsky has the chance to become a pure hitter with loud athletic tools all over the diamond.
26. New York Yankees
Kyle Teel, C/OF, Virginia
Kyle Teel is a freaky athlete for a catcher and it’s caught scouts’ attention. An above average runner with above average raw power, Teel can produce in a number of ways offensively. He’s a mature hitter who hardly ever punches out, and that has scouts excited about what’s to come when the raw power starts showing up more in games. He’s talented enough to stick behind the plate, but his tools could take him to a corner outfield spot, or even third base.
27. Philadelphia Phillies
Jack Hurley, OF, Virginia Tech
Hurley is as steady as they come offensively with enough tools on defense to stick in centerfield long-term. He impresses metrically too with above average batted-ball data and big exit velocities. He’s more than talented enough to go earlier than this, but it goes to show how deep the class is.
28. Houston Astros
Matt Shaw, INF, Maryland
Shaw can play anywhere on the diamond, and that’s a selling point for the Astros, but it’s his bat that gets the headlines. Shaw was a standout on the Cape in 2022 and features considerable raw power. He’s a pure hitter too featuring a mature approach and a willingness to use all-fields. The Astros have Jose Altuve beginning to age out, and Alex Bregman’s contract will come up soon. Shaw represents a fantastic next-man-up.
29. Seattle Mariners
Walker Martin, SS, Eaton
The Mariners have gone high school heavy in recent seasons and it’s another solid year to do-so in the latter half of the first round. Martin is a bit of a hidden gem being tucked away in Colorado, but the 6-foot-3-inch shortstop displays an impressive hit tool with lightning quick hands and considerable pull-side power. He’s got more than enough arm to stick at shortstop as well. There’s a bit of Chase Utley in his game.
30. Seattle Mariners
Will Sanders, RHP, South Carolina
Sanders oozes projection. His long, lanky, 6-foot-6-inch 210-pound body can pump 97 to the mound with ease, many scouts expecting there’s more to come. He’s got one of the better changeups in the class, and flashes a solid slider in the low-to-mid 80s. Sanders is yet to miss a ton of bats with his heater, but Seattle has done well of late taking pure arm talent with loose, whippy athleticism on the mound and transforming it, accelerating their draft arms into their monstrous ceilings (Gilbert, Kirby).
31. Tampa Bay Rays
Tanner Witt, RHP, Texas
Witt just straight up looks like Tyler Glasnow and he should be available to potentially throw some innings in August recovering from TJ. Witt can touch 99 with a banger CB. It’s a premium body too. The Rays will have fun with this one.
32. New York Mets
Blake Mitchell, C, Sinton
The Mets pick falls from 22 down to 32 after exceeding the luxury tax threshold by more than $40 million. They luck out in this case regardless. Mitchell could go in the Top 15 picks, though high school catchers always seem to have a tendency to fall a handful of spots further than they should. This is a premium high school bat with serious juice and decorated athleticism and talent behind the plate. He’s one of the better high school bats we’ve seen in the last handful of years.
33. Milwaukee Brewers
Yohandy Morales, 3B, Miami
Morales has a big-time prospect going back to his high school days and he’s really done a good job of polishing up the inconsistencies in his game while on campus. He now projects a above average power bat with an average hit tool and the potential for average speed. He’s got a strong arm and can handle third base too. The Brewers have leaned heavy toward college bats of late and Morales fits the bill.
34. Minnesota Twins
Brock Wilken, Third Base, Wake Forest
Wilken has some swing-and-miss presently in his game, and that will need to be cleaned up if he’s to go this early in the draft, but it’s hard to ignore the outlandish power Wilken produces. He projects a future average defender at third base with a plus arm too. This is a potential middle-of-the-lineup thumper with 30 homer power if it all clicks.
35. Miami Marlins
Jonny Farmelo, OF, Westfield
Farmelo has been a steady riser on boards after a really loud summer both in terms of pure hit tool and showcasing power. He’s got an above average arm and average speed and projects well in either corner outfield spot. It’s a reasonably mature swing for a high school hitter and he has the chance to move quickly up the ladder.
36. Los Angeles Dodgers
Bryce Eldridge, 1B/OF/RHP
Eldridge made a big impression this summer both on the mound and at the plate. He’s been up to 97 with a big breaking ball, whilst also showcasing some of the best raw power in the class at the plate. There’s some swing-and-miss in his game, but there’s so much to like here, it’s hard to imagine Eldridge not finding his way at the next level. The Dodgers will almost certainly maximize what he’s capable of.
37. Detroit Tigers
Jake Gelof, 3B, Virginia
The Tigers and new man-in-charge Scott Harris are set to rebuild their organization and development path to the big leagues and Gelof is great clay to get that kicked off. Gelof is an aggressive hitter with plus raw power and certainly has the chops to stick at third base as a pro.
38. Cincinnati Reds
Juaron Watts-Brown, RHP, Oklahoma State
Watts-Brown has surged up boards after a loud fall, touching 97 with an absolute banger slider and a changeup that’s really coming along. The Reds will do well adding to their future rotation with the addition of Watts-Brown and his explosive stuff.
39. Oakland Athletics
Roman Martin, SS, Servite
The Athletics dipped into their own backyard last July selecting Henry Bolte with their first round pick. Let’s say they do it again. Roman Martin has been a famous name in this class for a long time and he has a ton of fans in scouting circles. A big winter could prime him to soar further up boards.