Welcome to this week’s edition of Prospect Live’s dynasty league notes! Every week, we will be updating you with relevant analysis that could help you with roster decisions for your respective dynasty teams. Please note, however, that this isn’t simply a “stock up, down” report. My goal with this series is to go beyond the simple storylines of “player X is playing well”. Rather, whether it’s changing pitch mixes, approach shifts, buy-low/sell-high targets, progress reports on young players, or deep-league sleepers, I will be diving deep to develop storylines that may not be as widely covered. Our great team at Prospects Live has done a fabulous job with their daily minor-league write ups. Thus, when adding on the fact that there is less data with minor-league players, these notes will generally focus on the major-league side.
Between two marquee players who finally may be getting back on track, a couple middle infielders becoming all-around contributors again, the rise of the Mariners, and the next potential overlooked frontline starter, there is a lot to get to this week. Without further ado, let us get right into the notes!
Are Blake Snell and Cody Bellinger Back?
I know what you’re thinking; Justin, how many times do we have to ask this question. It’s been a difficult season for both Blake Snell and Cody Bellinger, but based on my VERY small sample size analysis, perhaps they’re getting back on track?
Let’s start with Snell, who I am starting to feel more confident in. The Padres acquired the 28-year-old lefty from the Rays hoping to get an ace, but he’s posted a 4.86 ERA and 1.56 WHIP thus far. For dynasty owners, he’s gone from a premier building block to someone you’re not sure whether to start. On the bright side, he’s now allowed just one earned run over his past 12 innings pitched, with 19 strikeouts in that span. The key? Becoming more of a two-pitch pitcher.
Snell’s fastball (.370 wOBA), curveball (.348 wOBA), and changeup (.473 wOBA) have all been poor offerings for him this season, yet his slider (.233 wOBA, 47.1% whiff) has been his lone saving grace. Thus, why make things complicated?
In other words, Snell is trying to get back to his old ways by being a two-pitch pitcher with his fastball and slider. Snell’s curveball was one his premier pitches, but that was when it had far less drop, which isn’t the case now; his changeup has always been a pitch he’d be better off throwing less. Seeing him start to become the best version of himself is extremely exciting. He’ll get the Diamondbacks for a second straight time on Friday, and his pitch usage should be analyzed deeply for a similar trend.
Then, there is Bellinger. I was able to catch a lot of the Angels Dodgers series this past weekend, and was interested by how much comfortable his swing looked. Interestingly, there might be something here:
Meanwhile, two of Bellinger’s five hardest-hit balls came on Saturday and Sunday. In fact, this home run was his hardest-hit ball of the season:
Both of these players need to show more to prove that they are “back”, but even if you were to project their future performance, their previous track record indicates it’d be much better than they showed this season. Perhaps Snell and Bellinger fade once again, but both are showing legitimate signs of improvement (Snell pitch mix change, Bellinger hitting ball harder). Given the way these two players have been discussed in dynasty circles, this might be a reasonable time to attempt to buy-low on them.
Fixing Your Biggest Weakness: Brandon Lowe and Gleyber Torres
Heading into the season, Brandon Lowe and Gleyber Torres each were seen as two AL East middle infielders in the rise. Torres, in particular, was regarded as a top-50 dynasty asset, while Lowe’s stock was on the rise following a strong 2020 campaign. Poor results early on caused some to panic, but now, those who exhibited patience in these two players are being rewarded.
Let’s start with Lowe, whose situation is much less complicated to dissect. After decreasing his strikeout rate to 25.7% in 2020, I was optimistic about his offensive profile, believing he’d combine immense power with plate discipline and enough contact. With that in mind, his 31.6% strikeout rate through June was less than ideal, to say the least. Well, could I interest you in a 18.3% strikeout rate and 143 wRC+ since then? In this stretch, Lowe is swinging at less pitches outside of the zone (26.8%), in addition to swinging at more pitches in the zone (85.8%). I don’t know about you, but that feels like the perfect combination? An everyday player regardless of platoon hitting leadoff for Tampa Bay, he’s someone who may be getting slightly overlooked.
Torres, on the other hand, is a much more polarizing case study. When you post a 123 wRC+ over the first two seasons of your pro career in New York, expectations are going to be enormous moving forward. Thus, it’s him failing to even be a league-average hitter this season (92 wRC+) is concerning.
This may seem odd, but a lot of Torres’ problems have come from making TOO much contact. Wait, what? It’s good to see Torres chase fewer pitches (23%, 8% better than 2019), but a majority of his contact improvement have come via breaking balls, in addition to “chase pitches”; his zone contact rate is actually slightly down from previous years. In other words, although Torres is making more contact, it’s not worth it when the quality of contact is suffering. Since the start of July, though, his barrel rate is up to 9.4%, while his hard-hit rate is up to 44.7%. The increase in quality of contact is encouraging, and may be a sign that the 24-year-old is putting it all together. With his plate discipline and track record of power at shortstop, he’s definitely a trade target in dynasty leagues; 2022 could be the year where it all “booms” for him. Worth noting that he recently inured his thumb in a slide and at the time of this publication the extent of the injury is unknown but manager Aaron Boone expressed concern.
Mariners On The Rise: Jarred Kelenic and Abraham Toro
It’s been a tough first pro season for Jarred Kelenic. Ranked as our top dynasty prospect prior to the season, he’s been 58% below league average (42 wRC+) up to this point offensively, in addition to a below-replacement player (-0.8 fWAR) overall. For those who maintained patience in the elite prospect, however, you are now being rewarded. Since July 24th (essentially the last two weeks), Kelenic has posted a 118 wRC+, cut down on his swinging strike rate (9.2%), and is finally showing power (.200 ISO).
A great deal of this has to due with changed mechanics, which, along with the absurdly dominant minor-league track record, makes me very optimistic about his future outlook. For more information, I strongly recommend reading Joe Doyle’s recent breakdown of the mechanical improvements. Development isn’t linear, but it’s clear Kelenic is finally adjusting to the MLB level. He’s still an elite dynasty asset, while I could very well see him being undervalued in redraft leagues next year as well.
That’s not it for the Mariners. They made a very controversial trade near the trade deadline, shipping their top reliever Kendall Graveman to the Astros in exchange for young third baseman Abraham Toro. This was seen as a clear “white flag” move by the front office, but should it have ever been the case? Even without Graveman, their bullpen is in good shape, while Toro not only provided them with an immediate offensive upgrade in the corner infield, but someone to build upon in the future.
Toro has become a “sleeper” pick of many due to his minor-league numbers. In 2019 and 2021 at the upper levels of the minors, he posted a 158 wRC+, and struck out just 15.5% of the time with a 11.9% walk rate. Yet, the early results at the MLB level weren’t great; major questions were raised about his power upside moving forward.
But Toro never got a chance to play everyday and fully adjust to the MLB level. That’s what he’s gotten in Seattle, and he’s responded with a 233 wRC+ and 14% barrel as some point. Obviously, he won’t keep up this torrid pace, but I’m comfortable projecting as a consistently productive all-around fantasy contributor, in the mold of Eduardo Escobar. Consider him the perfect “high floor” player to be able to count on for several years your dynasty team.
Luis Gil= Luis Garcia 2.0?
A difficult part of playing fantasy baseball is that we are forced to make decisions on the fly. Statistics take a while to stabilize, but by the time you realize whether you can completely trust a player to perform moving forward, they’re already on someone else’s team or the price to acquire them is too much. Thus, when a player legitimately looks like a high-end contributor, you need to jump quickly on the chance to acquire them. It worked with Astros’ young rising ace Luis Garcia, and I’m willing to bet on Luis Gil moving forward.
With the Yankees dealing with losses in their rotation due to COVID-19 issues and other injuries, they called upon Gil to start two games this week against the Orioles and Mariners. Naturally, he responded by not allowing an earned run in 11 innings pitched, striking out 14 batters and walking just three in the process. For me, what sticks out is the arsenal.
Gil’s fastball sits around 96 MPH, features 2.5 inches more of vertical improvement than the average fastball with his other characteristics, and has induced a 35.2% whiff thus far. His slider, on the other hand, wasn’t strong in his debut, but is an excellent horizontal offering that was much sharper in his second outing. Even if his changeup doesn’t develop, he can succeed with 90% fastballs and sliders, especially since he can effectively utilize his vertical fastball up and away (the whiff zone) from lefties. Command will be important to monitor, but he never had issues striking out batters in the minors, and wouldn’t be the first pitcher to improve that area of his game. With him, I’m going to trust the arsenal, and hope everything else figures itself out from there.
Random Relievers Of The Week
Back with the random relievers of the week! This week, we’ll focus on two players that may not have been on their current teams until recently, but could be key contributors come postseason time.
When the Astros traded starting center fielder Myles Straw to Cleveland, it seemed like an odd move for a contending team. Yet, it is clear that they viewed reliever Phil Maton as a more-valuable asset. With a 33% strikeout rate and 3.03 FIP over the past two years, it’s hard to not see him as that given their position.
For Maton, his best pitch is his curveball. It generates elite movement both vertically and horizontally, and has missed bats at a 45% rate this year. Clearly, the Astros agree:
This reminds me of the transformation Ryan Pressly made in Houston upon being traded there in 2018. Maton’s numbers are off the charts, and if he can have similar success with this pitch-mix change, he can easily work his way into a high-leverage role for a winning team. For fantasy, that could have notable implications.
Luis Gil wasn’t the only pitcher to debut for the Yankees on Tuesday night; in a way, Stephen Ridings stole the show. I mean, just look at this:
A 6’8” pitcher tossing 100 MPH with above-average vertical and horizontal movement, while also possessing a turbo sinker? Sign me up. Ridings isn’t someone with a major minor-league track record, but he did post an absurd 38.2% strikeout rate and 34.5% K-BB ratio in 29 innings between Double-A and Triple-A this year. With that type of arsenal, do not be surprised if he continues to work his way up the pecking order in New York’s bullpen. Congratulations Yankees fans; you might have found the epitome of the “random reliever” who become significantly more than that
Other Notes
With Myles Straw traded from Houston, Chas McCormick now has a clear path to playing time. His underlying power numbers are quite strong, while his plate discipline plays well in OBP leagues. I’d be a bit worried about his high whiff rate in terms of hitting for average, but the speed and quality of contact help him out there. Meanwhile, Jake Meyers possesses more contact ability, and could eventually take over if McCormick slips at any point
Hold onto Jesus Luzardo and Spencer Howard. With their organizations, both are making different pitch-mix changes to throw their fastballs less. Luzardo, in fact, has already demonstrated improvement missing bats, and I expect both to succeed in favorable ballparks and with regards to command moving forward. No reason to sell low on them now.
After trading contact quality for contact quantity earlier on in the season, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has shown more power with an 8.6% barrel rate since the start of June. It’s been a rough August so far, yet he still appears to be heading in the right direction.
I know that Reid Detmers has posted a 10.61 ERA over his first two career MLB starts, but I am encouraged by the Angels’ young lefty. In his latest outing against the Dodgers, he posted a 30% called-strike whiff rate, while his curveball has been fantastic thus far. The Astros are going to be tough, but with easier opponents in the future, expect him to settle in nicely by the end of the year.
Adbert Alzolay got off to a hot stretch with the Cubs, though he hasn’t been the same since coming back from injury. Originally a two-pitch pitcher, he’s experimented with different offerings, but has ditched his cutter in favor of a fastball-slider-changeup three-pitch mix. Given the slider’s ability to miss bats and the changeup’s ability to induce weak contact, don’t be surprised if he starts to see better results with a similar pitch mix.