The past three years of Bowman Draft have set an extremely high bar with the strength of its checklist. When there are more than three or four guys to chase in a product, collectors tend to be relatively happy. 2018 through 2020 Bowman Draft easily provided 10 to 15 prospects to chase per release plus a variety of the standard fare lottery tickets inherent in a prospect product. Does 2021 Bowman Draft live up to those expectations?
DESIGN
If you’ve seen 2021 Bowman Baseball released earlier this year, then you can skip right over this section. For those who haven’t, check out my blurb on it in my 2021 Bowman Baseball preview here. The main difference will be with the inserts and exclusive parallels. There are two new parallels exclusive to Bowman Draft this year. First is the Lava refractor. It comes in Aqua, Green Sparkle, Yellow, and Red. They won’t replace the true color refractors for value in the long term but may have helium in the short term due to the newness. I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re more desirable than the wave refractors in the short and long term. The second new parallel is exclusive to the Lite boxes and is the Black & White RayWave refractor. The new Lite configurations in 2021 for previous products have had exclusive Black & White Mini Diamond refractors, so this will be the first time we see a RayWave refractor. Images of this refractor have started to surface as of Thursday, December 30th and with the Mini Diamonds being very popular, I expect the RayWaves to be as well.
In general Topps and Bowman inserts are not great, and for the most part, this axiom holds true in this release as well. Based on the sell sheet, the main insert I would be interested in without yet having them in hand yet is the new Genesis insert with its cosmos theme. The standard Franchise Futures multi-player insert is included and is getting more and more tired every year. The Invicta insert is another new one that tries to portray a high-end, classy feel, but looks boring and is a miss for me.
Lite Exclusive RayWave Refractor Parallel
CONFIGURATIONS
There are four hobby configurations.
Jumbo Hobby box - guarantees 3 autos and is roughly $400 pre-sale per box.
Super Jumbo Hobby box - guarantees 5 autos and is roughly $600 pre-sale per box.
Lite Hobby box - no guaranteed hit, but guaranteed 5 Lite-exclusive Black & White RayWave refractor parallels and is roughly $150 pre-sale per box.
Asia Edition Hobby box - one guaranteed auto with exclusive Asia refractors - these have typically been the same thing as the mojo refractors you find in retail Mega boxes of Bowman Baseball and Bowman Chrome. I have not seen prices posted anywhere for this, but it is probably between the Lite and Jumbo cost - perhaps in the $200 range if I had to guess.
Retail formats are never really announced, but Topps has not done retail for Bowman Draft in recent memory, if ever. I expect this to continue this year with no retail formats.
THE MAIN ATTRACTION
When it comes to prospect products, the 1st Bowman logo is all that and then some. It is the gold standard and what I am going to focus on as the main attraction. Below is my breakdown of each player that should have a 1st logo in 2021 Bowman Draft given the checklist released by Topps. On with the show!
PROSPECT TIER BREAKDOWN
I have broken down these “1st” prospects into four tiers based on a combination of my perception of hobby interest and my own personal long-term hobby outlook. As I always say, prospects are the most volatile and highest risk/reward part of the hobby. Finally, real life baseball value, fantasy baseball value, and hobby value aren’t always the same. Keep all of those things in mind as you read my breakdown when formulating your own tiers and evaluations, and as you are buying boxes, singles, and into breaks for 2021 Bowman Draft.
Tier 1 - Cream of the crop. Combination of high-end Hit and Power tools that won’t end up as full-time designated hitters. Power/Speed combo players. Elite SP 1 pitchers (very rare). Potential for being perennial All-Stars and award winners.
Tier 2 - Bats that may lack in a certain area such as top-end power, three true outcomes players, maybe great real life/fantasy players, but not hobby-elite, or tantalizing raw talents. High-end SP 2 pitchers with additional positive factors such as team, arsenal, pedigree, etc.
Tier 3 - May have some hobby interest due to a single factor such as prospect pedigree, team interest, general hobby hype, an interesting carrying tool, etc.
Tier None - The likelihood of widespread short-term hobby interest, and most likely long-term as well, is close to none. Plenty of pitchers, catchers, role players, hit tool only bats, defense-first players, etc. to be found here. Hobby lottery tickets where the odds are stacked against you.
*Catchers and Pitchers are often knocked down a tier just due to their position.
TIER ONE
You will see the player’s overall drafted position and then their ranking in our Top 600 MLB Draft Prospects - so for Marcelo Mayer, this will be 4/1. “4” for being the 4th overall selection in the 2021 MLB Draft and “1” for his ranking in our Top 600. “NR” stands for “Not Ranked” in our Top 600.
Marcelo Mayer - SS (Red Sox, 1st Base and Auto, 4/1) - The 4th overall pick in the draft, that spot was likely the floor for him as he was a popular pick for the top overall pick in many mock drafts. When I watch video of him, I see a professional baseball player all around. He easily ticks all the boxes and seems natural in whatever he does. His hit tool is the most advanced of everything at the moment with very good exit velocity and strong control of the zone with great walk rates. His power may never be plus plus, but it should at least be above average to the tune of 25+ at peak. On the negative side, he may eventually move over to 3B but I think this is a lower outcome than other players given that same tag. He also won’t steal many bases. All in all, he has a very high floor with the potential to be a perennial all-star. Add in a highly collectible team in the Red Sox and that makes him the top Tier 1 guy for me.
Jordan Lawlar - SS (Diamondbacks, 1st Base and Auto, 6/2) - The 6th overall pick in the draft had been at play for the top overall pick for quite some time. Coming from the Texas prep ranks, the potential five-tool shortstop should be able to stick at the position. Patient and advanced approach at the plate willing to go with the pitch to the opposite field, gap power that should turn into plus power as he grows into his body, and should have enough speed to be a threat on the base paths. Barely had an opportunity to get pro at-bats before a shoulder injury ended his maiden season. Strong floor and very high ceiling. Easy Tier 1 player for me, but I will put him below Mayer in this tier since we didn't get to see Lawlar and he now has shoulder surgery plus the associated rehab and recovery that will slow down his timeline. Diamondbacks are also one of the lesser collectible teams, another potential minor drag on his hobby value.
Brady House - SS (Nationals, 1st Base only, 11/6) - One of the more well-known names in this draft class as he's been on the radar and considered as a 1st rounder for quite a while. I feel conflicted on whether to include House in Tier One, which is where I am going to guess the Hobby will value him, or to put him more in the top of the Tier Two range given his negatives. He does relatively well in our RoboScout rankings (Patreon $10 exclusive) with a plus power tool and a swing geared for loft. An athletic and muscular frame that shines in the exit velocity and xwOBA metrics along with expected Hobby interest gives him consideration for Tier One. However, a groundball rate above 50% and what appears to be an average hit tool at the moment along with the risk of having to potentially slide him over to third base drags down the previously mentioned positives. My concern is that House could easily end up a sub-.250 hitter even if he does end up with 30+ bombs regularly, and that isn't in the elite category in today's game, let alone perennial all-star. I'll slide House into the bottom of Tier One and be cautious with him due to what I see as lower floor than other guys in this Tier, but his ceiling is undeniable.
Benny Montgomery - OF (Rockies, 1st Base and Auto, 8/20) - Montgomery is that rare player where the sky is the limit, and the only thing limiting that will be his hit tool. The athletic Pennsylvania prep outfielder has a plethora of plus tools in power, fielding, and arm while he has double-plus speed. He should have no problem sticking in centerfield even when he likely adds more muscle and mass to his slender 6'4" frame. He has a notorious hitch in his swing and regularly is mentioned in the same breath as Hunter Pence. However he moves forward with that or without it, the missing ingredient is getting the hit tool up to the level of all his other tools, or close to it. That may be a tall task with the current state of Rockies player development, but fingers crossed it happens. It was a small sample at the Complex in 2021, but he did hit well, which was a nice bonus to see. A high-risk Tier 1 player for me given the missing ingredient, but that power speed archetype that Montgomery possesses in spades can be hobby gold.
TIER TWO
Colton Cowser - OF (Orioles, 1st Base and Auto, 5/12) - The 5th overall pick has a double plus hit tool and plate approach that constantly delivers the barrel to the ball. He was fifth overall in our Data Driven Top 500 as well. Not the classic center field profile, but could stick there or may bump out to left field. The only question is if Cowser will ever work 20+ home runs into his game. Some people think so given his exit velocity numbers, but a more lofted swing path is likely needed and that may not be worth a potential ding to his high-end hit tool. Until he starts to implement plus game power, Cowser will be a Tier 2 player, but if he does so successfully, watch out.
Henry Davis - C (Pirates, 1st Base and Auto, 1/3) - Going to be very hard to put the top overall draft pick anywhere but Tier 1 or Tier 2 (unless the player's name is Mickey Moniak). Catchers do make it difficult to push into Tier 1 though, and Adley is the only one in recent memory that probably deserved that Tier ranking. Davis may not stick behind the plate because he's not an ideal receiver, even with a double-plus howitzer for an arm. Robo umps may make that less of a concern. Above-average hit tool and plus power with a strong plate approach highlight his tool set. Never going to steal bases is probably the biggest negative. Without the general catcher penalty, Davis would likely end up in Tier 1, especially going at 1 overall in the draft. With the catcher penalty, I am going to stick him in Tier 2, but don't mind those that see him in their personal top Tier.
Harry Ford - C (Mariners, 1st Base and Auto, 12/9) - The top prep catcher in the draft taken by the Mariners at ninth overall and signed for full slot value. Super athletic with plus speed - love seeing him motor around the bases as it just looks like he is moving fast. While the hit tool is probably average, he has plus walk and chase percentages and plus power with big time bat speed that brings double plus max velo to the equation. Has the skill set to stick behind the plate, but given his athletic profile, it is regularly speculated that he ends up somewhere else on the field by the time he gets to the big league. With that in mind, I am somewhat discounting the prep catcher penalty. He also has 70-grade bat flip skills (if you know, you know). Given his top 10 draft pedigree and being a top 10 player in our Data Driven Top 500, I feel comfortable slotting Ford into my Tier 2.
Aaron Zavala - OF (Rangers, 1st Base and Auto, 38/93) - The Pac-12 Player of the Year has a whole lot going for him and I like it. Plus hit tool with a plus plate approach, regularly putting up more walks than strikeouts, and the ability to steal bases at a bit more than just the chip-in steal type are all great ingredients to building a Tier 1 hobby player. The only item in that stew that is missing is the power, and there are some hints that it will come. He put up 9 home runs in his eye-popping final season at Oregon and had double plus max exit velocity in his early pro ball run. To a lesser degree, he won’t be a plus on the defensive side of the ball, which will likely restrict him to a LF only role. A top 10 player in our Data Driven Top 500 with double plus max velo, BB%, and Chase %, I really want to take a bit of a leap and put him in the bottom of Tier 1. However, given his defensive concerns and uncertainty, if he will be a 25+ home run hitter, I will put him at the top of Tier 2. I seriously went back and forth here on which side of the fence to put Zavala because I like the offensive profile quite a bit.
Jay Allen - OF (Reds, 1st Base and Auto, 30/38) - Super athletic three-sport star from the Florida prep ranks who passed up a scholarship offer to play baseball and football at the University of Florida has all the potential. With a full-time focus on baseball, he has the chance to unlock the coveted five-tool player archetype. A top 50 player in our Data Driven Top 500, he should be able hit, run, and put the ball over the fence. At present, he is average to above average across the board, but he is by no means a finished product. May end up in a corner outfield spot putting more pressure on the bat, but also sticking in center field is a likely possibility. I am taking the upside play here with Allen and placing him in my Tier 2 group.
Lonnie White Jr. - OF (Pirates, 1st Base and Auto, 64/35) - Along with Chandler, the Pirates used their underslot choice of Henry Davis at 1-1 to steal away a big time football commit with White, a potential star wide receiver headed to Penn State. A power speed athlete profile at 6'3" 205 that is raw given his focus on football and baseball as well as basketball to a lesser degree. I like his compact swing and how he can get it to through the zone for plus pull-side power. Plus speed and an above-average hit tool at the moment. A projectable Tier 2 player that has a low floor if he can't translate the tools and the high ceiling of a Tier 1 five-tool player if he does.
Sal Frelick - OF (Brewers, 1st Base and Auto, 15/10) - The Brewers 1st rounder out of Boston College has a really high floor given the strength of his plus hit tool, double plus speed, and strong plate skills. I could easily see Frelick regularly putting up a .300+ batting average with 30+ stolen bases as a major leaguer. Currently playing center field, scouts also think he could move to second base as well, which will increase his positional versatility. The biggest drawback is that he may not get to more than 15-ish home runs. In real life and even more so in fantasy baseball, this profile is money. In the hobby, it is good but not great. Unfortunately, that's why he is going to end up in Tier 2 as opposed to Tier 1, as much as I believe in how good Frelick will be with plenty of all-star games in his future.
Jackson Jobe - RHP (Tigers, 1st Base and Auto, 3/5) - The best prep pitcher in the draft and likely in the product given that Jack Leiter has been held out for 2022 Bowman. Has a plus fastball in the mid-90s and a double plus slider with elite spin rates that was the best slider in the draft and in contention for best pitch period in all of the draft. Finishes up his repertoire with an above-average curveball and changeup that is trending towards plus. Throwing on the video is just swing and miss after swing and miss as Jobe mowed down the prep ranks. Clean, repeatable mechanics and an advanced for his age approach lessen the prep righty’s risk. Combine all of this with his high draft stock and it's an easy Tier 2 call making him my top pitcher in the product.
Izaac Pacheco - SS/3B (Tigers, 1st Base and Auto, 39/45) - The prep shortstop out of Texas was an overslot 2nd round draft pick of the Tigers and given his size and profile is highly likely to bump out to third base long term even though he played exclusively at shortstop in his Complex league season. Sold out for pull-side power in the Circuit season which lead to swing and miss concerns, but righted the ship during the spring prep season where I saw him deposit the ball over the fence to centerfield and some opposite-field shots as well. Bat speed galore from the left-handed side and plus power will be his calling card. Hit tool may only be above average at peak depending on how much he focuses on power over hit. But given his size - 6'4" 225 pounds as a teenager - he should have enough natural power to not need to sell out for it as he matures. An easy Tier 2 call for me given the power potential, but the hit tool will drive whether he should have been a Tier 1 call or not. Given his small sample size Complex league showing not being the best with a 34 K%, I am going to hold off on a Tier 1 ranking.
Jordan Viars - OF (Phillies, 1st Base and Auto, 84/600) - The Texas prep lefty bat has a man's body at a young age and a pretty swing to go with it. Not a lot of video available, but what I did see was promising with a short and quick lofted power swing. In 22 games at the Complex so far, he put together average contact and max velo numbers, but had double plus walk and chase percentages leading to a top 15 ranking in our Data Driven Top 500 along with a top ranking for Complex Level RoboScout ranking. Trying not to be too optimistic here, but I am going to go out on a limb and I am guessing not many others will be on it with me and put Viars in Tier 2. I really want to get more eyes on him in 2022 to see how he handles big boy competition, but I think there is serious upside here with his potential plus power lefty swing.
Carson Williams - SS (Rays, 1st Base and Auto, 28/47) - A helium prep shortstop out of the San Diego area that was more seen as a pitching prospect until his bat started to come around in his Senior season. Should be able to stick at the position given that arm strength along with good athleticism and size. Still more raw power than game power, but plus max velo, willingness to take a walk, and not chasing out of the zone are all a good foundation. Add in the speed component and an above-average hit tool and you squint and see a five-tool player. Granted that is a small percentile outcome which is why I will have Carson in my Tier Two for now, but he's near the top of my list of guys I want to see more of.
Anthony Solometo - LHP (Pirates, 1st Auto only, 37/34) - Player comps are hard and often wrong which is why I try to stay away from them as much as possible. But the most often cited comp for Solometo is one that is easy to see and one I am quite familiar with in Madison Bumgarner. Big time deceptive delivery from the left side with a big arm swing. Mostly leans on a plus low to mid 90's fastball with arm-side run and rise coupled with a plus sweeping slider. He also has a developing changeup that has been tagged as above average at the moment but with potential for more. It looks like an uncomfortable at-bat no matter which side of the plate you are on. A potential front of the rotation starter if everything lines up and there is a good chance it does. Tier 2 without a doubt and someone I look forward to watching develop.
Jackson Merrill - SS (Padres, 1st Base only, 27/69) - Off the top with Merrill, be aware that his photo on his card is not him, and is speculated that it is Isaac Frye, a showcase teammate at some point previously (thanks Topps). Merrill had a growth spurt as a prep Senior that led to the increased punch with the bat and drew much more interest, landing him an underslot deal with the Padres at the end of the 1st round. A lefty prep shortstop out of Maryland, he has that classic left-handed swing geared for the lower quadrant of the zone. I saw him struggle a lot with pitches up in the zone. An overall good feel for hit and now some plus raw power with the max velo numbers to back that up. Defensive ability to stick at shortstop although it wouldn't be a surprise if he ends up at third base at some point in his career. A coin flip for me between the top of Tier 3 and the bottom half of Tier 2, but given the draft pedigree of the first round, I am going to lean Tier 2 here.
Ty Madden - RHP (Tigers, 1st Base only, 32/13) - The Tigers Comp A pick out of the University of Texas has the prototypical starting pitcher frame featuring a plus slider and an above-average fastball that he runs up into the high 90s. Both pitches get a ton of swing and misses, but the fastball, even with its plus velocity may need more movement/approach tuning to get it to its plus potential. He also throws a curveball and a changeup, but right now both pitches are average at best and more used as a change of pace. Watching video and literally every swinging strikeout I see is either the slider or the fastball. Which is great because there are a lot of them. But also not great because that changeup or curveball need to show up to reach his potential as a front-line rotation guy which is definitely in the cards. Without that, he's a mid-rotation guy as the most likely outcome. Going to slot him at the bottom half of Tier 2 because of the ceiling, but wouldn't argue pushing him into Tier 3 given the risk of a mid to back end rotation arm.
Gavin Williams - RHP (Guardians, 1st Base and Auto, 23/14) - Fourth-year senior pitchers always start as a Tier None player and have to battle a strong current for me to move them up the Tiers. Williams turned out to be a pretty strong swimmer as he went from an interesting relief arm to a dominant ace in his senior season at East Carolina. An underslot sign in round 1, him and Tommy Mace get off the Cleveland bus together and you imagine it's the Cavaliers and not the Guardians. He comes in at 6'6" and 235 pounds and pumps high 90s gas that will touch triple digits. Couple that plus fastball with a plus curveball and average to above-average changeup and slider and you have a standard model starter's four-pitch mix. Go watch him mow down Vandy with 13 strikeouts in the Super Regional if you want to see how good he can be against a quality group of hitters. He'll always have a high leverage relief floor but has now shown mid-rotation upside. Throw in the round 1 draft pedigree and the Cleveland secret sauce, I am going to slide him into the bottom half of Tier 2.
Chase Petty - RHP (Twins, 1st Base and Auto, 26/22) - While Jobe is the best prep pitcher in the draft, Chase Petty may be the most electric. His fastball and slider combo is simply filthy. His fastball is 94 - 99 and can touch 102 with plenty of life and movement. The slider is best when it is more of a 12-6 with glove side bite as it seems to tunnel better, but it can get sweepy as well. Both pitches are double plus killers when they are on. His third pitch is a changeup that is reportedly above average, but I wasn't able to find many looks at it. With more comfort throwing his changeup regularly and improved command and control, Petty could step up into the SP1 conversation. Without it, he has significant reliever risk. For now, he will be more of that extreme risk prep righty in Tier 2 that could move up and down the Tiers regularly as he develops.
Ryan Holgate - OF (Cardinals, 1st Base and Auto, 70/76) - Ryan Holgate's home runs are majestic and the only question is really how much we will see of them. The Cardinals 2nd round pick has 40 home run power with double plus max velo but the concern is he will only get the bat to the ball enough to get to 20 of those. He did post strong batting averages after his freshman year of college but did not repeat that in his 30 games at Low A this year. With power being the most coveted hobby tool, I am going to push Holgate into the bottom half of Tier 2 even with his hit deficiencies. This is a high-risk ranking, so buyer beware.
T.J. White - 1B/OF (Nationals, 1st Base and Auto, 143/399) - The South Carolina prep outfielder has a nice athletic frame with a muscular lower half that generates plus power but plenty of swing and miss. Plus max velo numbers at the Complex level and a top 10 player in our hitting RoboScout for the Complex level. His left-handed swing looks more geared towards power as he tends to load up more while his right-handed swing looks to put the bat on the ball more. There is a lot of hand movement going on pre-swing and through the swing motion that I would like to see cleaned up. Won't run much, but probably gets a few chip-in steals. I like this profile a lot for the hobby and I'm going to go with my gut and put him at the bottom half of Tier 2 even though my head tells me he is more of a top of Tier 3 player with the lack of walks and strikeout tendency.
Wes Kath - 3B (White Sox, 1st Base and Auto, 57/33) - The White Sox second-round pick out of the Arizona prep ranks was a shortstop in high school but has pushed out to third base in his first pass through pro ball. Has the arm and glove to be able to stick at third base. Plus raw power but an average hit tool that currently caps his ceiling. Struck out a lot at the Complex as his long levers that give him that power at 6'3" were taken advantage of. I like the power swing from the left side and that gives him Tier 2 upside, although I strongly considered keeping him at the top of Tier 3 until we see some of that swing and miss lessen. Definitely a player to watch to see if he can lessen that swing and miss.
Peter Heubeck - RHP (Dodgers, 1st Base only, 101/50) - Project and upside arm that lands in an ideal org for it. The prep righty out of Baltimore was an overslot sign with a low 90s fastball, 12-6 curveball, and a developing changeup. The fastball/curveball metrics are plus and Prospects Live MLB Draft Director Joe Doyle has comped him in the mold of Justin Verlander. That alone puts him in the Tier 2 conversation with upside for more, so I'll take the easy way out and stick him in the bottom half of Tier 2.
Gunnar Hoglund - RHP (Blue Jays, 1st Base and Auto, 19/15) - Had Tommy John surgery back in May. If not for that, he likely doesn't get past the single digits in round 1; in this case, he "fell" to the middle of round 1. Mid rotation floor featuring a high-spin slider as his swing and miss pitch. His fastball is often in the upper half of the zone, which is great for setting up his off-speed, but it lacks top end velocity and deception, which can lead to the pitch being hittable. Projectable frame with strong command, minus the injury, he would be in consideration for the top of Tier Two as a potential frontline SP. Given the injury situation, I'll slot him as a high-risk play at the bottom of Tier Two and see how he looks in 2023.
Andrew Painter - RHP (Phillies, 1st Base and Auto, 13/25) - Came into the year as potentially the top prep arm for the 2021 draft and ended up as the third prep arm drafted which isn't that far of a fall. A lot of the concern was with how he underperformed the first half of the year as he struggled with his command, but he closed strong which helped bring his stock back up. I remember catching some of those early game highlights and seeing either a lot of out of the zone misses or getting hit hard when in the zone. At 6'7", there is some general concern about tall pitchers, but at the moment Painter doesn't seem to exhibit many of those issues. A full starter's arsenal with a plus mid-90s fastball and good spin numbers all around. The 12-6 curveball looks especially pretty and the changeup has really nice fade. In summary, a ton of the raw ingredients you would visualize as a future top end of the rotation starter but with a ton of risk. A bottom of Tier 2 guy for me, but it's a bit like Lucy putting the football down again and asking me to kick the ball. Hopefully, Painter doesn't snatch the ball away from me at the last moment and make me regret putting him up this high.
Will Bednar - RHP (Giants, 1st Base and Auto, 14/16) - The Giants 1st rounder and the younger brother of Pirates reliever David Bednar has two plus pitches with a mid-90s fastball and a hard, sweeping slider. Both pitches are easily thrown for strikes and get plenty of swing and misses. Couple that with a first-round draft pedigree, and he gets the bump into Tier 2. Relief risk and the need to further hone his third pitch, a curveball, would generally slot Bednar into Tier 3 without that draft status. In addition, the Giants dev org, especially with pitching, has taken a Giant leap forward (see what I did there?) under Zaidi. If we see Bednar trending towards relief, he still has an opportunity to be in a high leverage role, but the hobby interest would drop to Tier 3 at best, but most likely to Tier None.
TIER THREE
Alex Binelas - 1B (Brewers*, 1st Base and Auto, 65/63) - Binelas didn't have the best 2021 college season as his hit tool didn't keep up with his power tool, pushing him down to the third round of the draft. In a small sample size minor league season spent mostly at Low A, Binelas absolutely raked. Will the real Alex Binelas please stand up? Perhaps capitalizing on that, the Brewers traded him, David Hamilton, and Jackie Bradley Jr. to the Red Sox for Hunter Renfroe (Binelas is in a Brewers uniform/listed as on the Brewers in the product). While Binelas has mainly played third base, his lack of arm and athleticism will push him to first base long term, further pressuring his power over hit profile to improve in both areas. I've liked the video of him when I put it on of his Low A games, often taking what the pitcher gives him and hitting to all fields, but I have also seen a bit more swing and miss than I would like. He's a top Tier 3 guy that I am going to watch closely to see if he can develop the hit tool to match the power and vault into Tier 2.
Adrian Del Castillo - C (Diamondbacks, 1st Base and Auto, 67/52) - Was widely considered a top 10 pick prior to the season, Del Castillo had a tough 2021 with the University of Miami and continued that trend in Low A ball for the Diamondbacks after they made him a 2nd round pick. The biggest issue for the left-handed backstop was that his home run pop disappeared. The next concern is that he doesn't stick behind the plate given his less than stellar showing there, putting more pressure on the bat to perform at either 1B or corner OF. On the plus side, he has strong plate skills in that he rarely strikes out and regularly puts up high OBP marks. Strong hit tool with doubles power and past pre-draft hype is mitigated with a partial catcher penalty and the mysterious disappearance of homerun power. This keeps Del Castillo in the top half of Tier 3. If he finds that power stroke again without giving up too much to get it and finding a home in a corner OF spot, he starts to creep towards Tier 2.
Daylen Lile - OF (Nationals, 1st Base only, 47/29) - The ability to field all outfield spots in a pinch, but mostly profiles as a left fielder with underwhelming arm strength. Nice contact skills where he is comfortable putting the ball in play all over the field with his power tending towards the pull side. I really liked seeing him take quite a few pitches that would normally lock up a lefty high and tight and hitting them solidly to right field by easily keeping his arms close to the body with quick hands. Has a very patient approach and the willingness to take the base on balls. As he grows into his body and perhaps puts more loft into his swing, we could see the home runs ticking up. At the moment he may not have a profile as an everyday regular in some people's eyes, but I can easily see it. Putting him at the top of Tier 3 and keeping a close eye on how his power develops; if it comes, he's an easy Tier 2 player.
Cooper Kinney - 2B (Rays, 1st Base and Auto, 34/61) - Offense first player that has his biggest questions with the glove on his hand. Second base is his likely home, but the Rays are known to be creative and I wouldn't be surprised to see Kinney end up playing a multitude of positions to be able to get his bat regularly into games. Not a ton of in-game power at the moment for the lefty prep out of Tennessee, but he can take it deep with authority in BP. Hits to all fields, gets the bat through the zone with a nice lofted swing, shows very good plate skills with the ability to take as many walks as he does strikeouts. Top of Tier 3 player that develops anything more than average power and he slides into Tier 2.
Bubba Chandler - RHP/SS (Pirates, 1st Base and Auto, 72/182) - The prep two-sport star was signed to a huge overslot deal to take him away from his Clemson football commitment as a star prep quarterback. He is also a two way player but likely ends up on the bump rather than on the dirt in the long term. His Bowman cards only list him as a pitcher as well. However, he went Complex as a hitter only. Guessing that was more to keep him in the program and doing something as he wasn't going to put any more innings on his arm, like almost every other prep arm from the draft. It was only 11 games, but it wasn't a great look and I will focus on him as a pitcher rather than a hitter or two-way player. A two-way player approach would have significant negative to his development if recent history is our judge. As a switch hitting shortstop-only profile, he is likely on the fence between Tier 2 and Tier 3. As a prep righty pitcher, he's mid 90's fastball with a slider, curveball and changeup. Inconsistent all around on the mound with a bunch of potential plus pitches led by the fastball and curveball but lots of unknowns due to not being focused on pitching and baseball in general. Very athletic at 6'2" 190 with room to fill out. Low floor given all of the x-factors, but super high ceiling of an SP2 will have me push him into Tier 3. And the outside chance that he is a two way player not of the Brendan McKay failed experiment but more of an Ohtani-lite is probably something to be cognizant of. There will likely be some in the hobby taking a shot just for that most unlikeliest of outcomes.
Sam Bachman - RHP (Angels, 1st Base and Auto, 9/18) - Angels 1st round right-hander out of Miami of Ohio popped big time in 2021 pushing all the way up to 9th overall in the draft. He leads with an eye-popping fastball in the upper 90's that can touch triple digits that lives mostly in the middle to upper half of the zone and has some arm side tail. His main secondary, which he will throw a lot, is a very hard gyro slider that will touch the low 90's and breaks glove side. He apparently will throw an inconsistent changeup infrequently as his third pitch, but I never saw it in the video I watched. What I did see was a huge amount of swing and miss and any contact made was all weak. With just two pitches and some injury history, the relief risk is real. On the other hand, the Angels need starting pitching in the worst way (spending every draft pick on a pitcher is certainly a mood) and I imagine they will give him every opportunity to see if he can stick in the rotation. A floor of high leverage relief to a ceiling of a two double plus pitches SP2/SP3 is enticing to slide into the bottom of Tier 2, but I will try and contain my exuberance for what I saw and put him at the top half of Tier 3.
Ryan Cusick - RHP (Braves, 1st Base and Auto, 24/24) - The Braves 1st round selection out of Wake Forest throws gas and has all of the under the cover stats to support what is overall a double plus fastball. Watching a start of his against a good Low A squad in the Carolina Mudcats, he was leaning heavily on it and more often than not was getting a lot of swing and misses with it. His main secondary go to was a hard and tight breaker that looked like a slider although I've also seen it referred to as a curve. It seemed like most hitters were laying off of it and he wasn't able to get many called strikes with it. Inconsistency with his command and control and missing a third pitch are going to be his main developmental needs. At worst, a high leverage bullpen floor, and at best, a mid-rotation starter with potentially more if the stars align. Slotting him into the top half of Tier 3; if he does take that next step in his development, he becomes an easy player to jump into Tier 2 with that god-mode fastball.
Michael McGreevy - RHP (Cardinals, 1st Base and Auto, 18/62) - The Cardinals 1st round right-hander out of UC Santa Barbara has one of the higher starting pitcher floors in the product and the draft class. A mid-rotation starter with a low to mid 90's fastball that has big time arm-side run. Will regularly throw all three of his secondaries with the slider and curveball being above average to plus offerings. Also throws a changeup that tunnels well with his fastball. McGreevy's biggest asset is his plus command and control. Hits his spots all day long in the video I watched which is what drives the high floor evaluation. He could use some more velocity and his fastball and that would hopefully drive up the strikeout potential. If he does that, he easily jumps into Tier 2. But without the all-important strikeout upside that would get the hobby on the bandwagon, he will be at the top half of Tier 3.
Eric Cerantola - RHP (Royals, 1st Auto only, 139/166) - The super tantalizing Cerantola has a quiver full of flaming arrows that is anyone's best guess if they will hit the bullseye or completely miss the hay bale, let alone the target on it. Three potential plus pitches with the fastball sitting in the high 90's this spring, a 12-6 curveball, and an arm-side fading changeup with a ton of life. Essentially, good luck if he figures out his command. He is a front-end starter if he does. If he doesn't he probably ends up the bullpen. Super high ceiling and super low floor. This is a hobby lottery ticket assuming he is cheap. I am going to slot him towards the top half of Tier 3 given the volatility of this profile.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand - 3B (Twins, 1st Base and Auto, 128/177) - The Twins fourth round selection out of Oklahoma State has some questions on whether he can stick at third base which puts further pressure on his offensive profile if he has to kick over to first base or even DH. While the tools don't grade out plus, he just produces at every single stop. Sometimes the statline and the fact that he just regularly bangs the ball all over the field speaks louder than tool grades. That puts me in a conundrum of whether to bump CES up to Tier 2 based on performance or Tier 3 based on tools. If he continues to produce as he faces stiffer and stiffer competition, I will be ready to push him up to Tier 2. But given the small sample sizes and lesser competition levels, I am going to put him at the top half of Tier 3 based on his tools.
Tyler Black - 2B/3B (Brewers, 1st Base and Auto, 33/67) - A standout at Wichita State due to the plus hit tool scuffled a bit in his small sample size debut in pro ball. Left hander that is more bat than glove that could also play third base or possibly some outfield in the future, but average power tool likely keeps him more valuable at second base or perhaps center field. Good plate skills as well and have seen him willing to put the ball into the opposite field on occasion. With the hit tool being the only real plus in his arsenal, it relegates him to Tier 3 for the moment. If he can go from high teens home run power to high twenties home run power, he starts to get more interesting for Tier 2 consideration.
Joe Mack - C (Marlins, 1st Base and Auto, 31/28) - The 2nd prep catcher off the board is expected to be able to stick behind the dish given his prowess in the crouch. Average to above average skillset with stick in his hands and shows good pitch recognition and approach. Will take a walk as exhibited by the almost identical walks to strikeouts in the Complex this year. Still some question marks if he can turn the prep offensive skills into pro ones, but definitely has the all around talent to make it to the show. All in all, a prep catcher that will stick behind the dish with solid but not spectacular hit and power and a plus plate approach is going to be on the borderline of Tier 3 and Tier None. Given the prospect pedigree and draft capital spent, Mack gets the benefit of the doubt and slots into the middle of Tier 3.
Ian Moller - C (Rangers, 1st Base only, 103/118) - Prep catchers are often a dart throw, especially regarding if they can stick behind the plate or not. In baseball terms, it's better if they can, and in hobby terms, it's better if they can't. The jury is out on Moller there, but if I was placing bets, I would guess he does stay there. Has plus power with a really pretty right handed swing when he gets a hold of one. Has shown a bit of hit tool regression in the spring and at the Complex as he was once considered the top prep catcher in the class and a 1st rounder. Prep catcher penalty plus hit tool concerns leads me to placing Moller in the middle of Tier 3.
Denzel Clarke - OF (Athletics, 1st Base only, 127/139) - When I threw on the video of Sam Bachman facing the A's during fall instructs, I had not yet starting looking into Denzel Clarke. So I had no idea who this kid was exactly when he stepped into the batter's box, but it was a noticeably bigger dude than anyone else the A's threw out there to hit against the Angels fireballer. He didn't get a hit, but he actually had the best contact of all of the A's facing Bachman with a sharply hit ground ball to the pull side that he was thrown out on. Clarke started to put it together in the Pandemic shortened season in 2020 and continued to crush in 2021 for Cal-State Northridge with a .324/.445/.570 triple slash and 8 home runs in 38 games. While he exclusively played Center field his past few years in college, his size will likely push him out to left field, putting more pressure on his hit tool, which is much more of a question mark than his prodigious power. Being a right handed bat, that creates short side platoon concerns. At 6'5", he's going to have to learn how to defend the zone against pitchers that will take advantage of his size. If he can figure that out, he gets a lot more interesting as his plus power now becomes dangerous, something we like to see in the hobby. A low floor super high ceiling bat that for me is a Tier 3 guy currently that should be watched closely to see if he does turn those long levers into an every day power hitter role.
Matheu Nelson - C (Reds, 1st Base and Auto, 35/57) - Nelson shot up draft boards in 2021 after a huge season at Florida State which led to his selection by the Reds in the Comp A round at 35th overall. A typical catcher's frame at 5'11" and 210 pounds, it's not a slam dunk but he should be able to stick behind the plate. He started showing significant raw power in 2021 and put up a Division I leading 23 home runs. He's got an inverted front leg batting stance that just looks uncomfortable and I wonder over time if that has to be adjusted simply due to the wear and tear on catcher's knees and ankles. Strong plate approach but average hit tool and maybe a chip in steal here or there sums up the rest of the offensive package. Normally this profile with the added catcher penalty would be a Tier None player, but given how many balls he put over the fence at FSU, I am going to slide him into the bottom half of Tier 3 and be ready to move him into Tier None if he can't repeat that.
Hunter Goodman - C (Rockies, 1st Base and Auto, 109/66) - Goodman's plus raw power is loud leading to 21 home runs in his final season at Memphis, but he pairs it with an overly aggressive plate approach and a less than ideal swing mechanics. Most evaluators believe he doesn't stick behind the plate as his receiving skills are not up to par but he does have the arm strength to gun down runners. This has led to Goodman putting in time in the outfield corners as well as a handful of games at first base. With his small sample size of Complex games in 2021, the Rockies had him mostly at catcher with the rest of his games at DH. In general, Goodman would have at least a partial catcher penalty and a questionable contact ability, but the all important to the hobby plus power with a promising showing at the Complex will have me push Goodman up to the bottom half of Tier 3.
Kyle Manzardo - 1B (Rays, 1st Base and Auto, 63/97) - Plus hitter lacking enough in-game power limited to a position that really values it with first base. This profile up the middle would likely be a Tier 3 slotting, but at a corner, it slots more in at the top of Tier None. The deck is stacked against hit-only corner players, but given the strength of Manzardo's hit tool and the associated plate skills, I am going to slot him into the bottom half of Tier 3 and cross my fingers his power continues to trend in the right direction.
Connor Norby - 2B (Orioles, 1st Base and Auto, 41/43) - The Orioles second-round pick is your classic second base prototype player. Above average to plus hit tool with a strong plate approach is brought down by the rest of his average-ish tools. Gap power is probably geared towards putting up home runs in the teens range. Big draft riser as he continued to get better every year in college. Another player that is going to be more valued in real baseball and fantasy baseball than in the hobby. Bottom half of Tier 3 guy for me but if he can't get to that 20 home run number, the hit tool gets even more pressure to keep him in Tier 3 and he could easily slide into Tier None.
Carter Jensen - C (Royals, 1st Base and Auto, 78/112) - Another risky prep catcher profile and there are some that think Jensen may not stick there. Has the arm but not ideal receiving skills for the position. He was more of a corner player and shifted over to catching as a freshman in high school, so it's definitely possible for him to move back out to a corner. Lefty bat that can hit as well as push it over the fence that finished in the top 15 of the RoboScout ranks for the Complex level. Not sure if there are any plus tools yet to his game, but enough promise with the hit and power tools for me to put him into the back half of Tier 3.
Edwin Arroyo - SS (Mariners, 1st Base only, 48/78) - The Mariners’ 2nd round pick was one of the youngest players in the draft which translates to a lot of raw potential yet to come. He has all the tools to stick at shortstop which gives him a nice floor. He's a switch hitter and the video from the Complex is already promising with what the Mariners are doing. Taking a look at video from the Circuit was a bit of a concern, especially hitting from the left-hand side. He starts with an open-face stance and seemed to really sell out for power with a very unbalanced finish. The right side of the plate was more promising as he seemed to have a more natural, hit over power swing. Cut to the complex video and his left-handed swing was a lot more balanced, even if it is still a bit more power over hit focused. His splits at the complex appear to back up what I am seeing, hitting both of his home runs from the left-hand side while hitting for better average from the right-hand side. A top 50 guy at the Complex level in our RoboScout, I am putting him into the bottom of Tier 3 because of the strong floor and the upside to develop offensively as he grows into his body.
Jake Fox - 2B (Guardians, 1st Base only, 95/229) - Cleveland's third-round pick out of the Florida prep ranks has a plus hit tool with above-average speed that he knows how to use on the base paths. He doesn't profile as ever having more than average power. Love his approach and plate skills as he works counts, fouls balls off, and takes the walk. Profiles best at second base given his size and arm strength, but could play shortstop if needed. Not like Cleveland will need it given their depth at the position. Putting him at the bottom half of Tier 3 because he legit could hit .300 and steal 20 bags which is a cut above Tier None for me.
Noah Miller - SS (Twins, 1st Base only, 36/89) - The younger brother of Cleveland's Owen Miller is a switch-hitting prep shortstop out of Wisconsin. A solid all around player that has the tools to stick at shortstop. Not much power to speak of at the moment and an above-average hit tool with decent feel at the plate where he will take a walk and won’t chase. More fluid and better bat speed through the zone from the right side. Don't see a huge ceiling unless he taps into a bunch more power. Given his family and draft pedigree, ability to stick at one of the most valuable positions in the hobby, and the promise of power from the right-hand side, I will go with a Tier 3 ranking with an eye towards seeing how the power develops.
Dominic Hamel - RHP (Mets, 1st Base and Auto, 81/193) - Mets 3rd round right-hander out of Dallas Baptist has the analytical data on his pitches to backup being a potential mid-rotation starter. He has a four-pitch mix highlighted by a low to mid 90s fastball that plays up with the spin and vertical approach angle with a slider, curveball, and changeup making up the rest of his arsenal. Swing and miss stuff across the repertoire as he racked up 136 strikeouts in just over 91 innings in his final year of college ball. A Tier 3 pitcher that could easily jump into Tier 2 with some consistency and any additional fastball velo bump.
Doug Nikhazy - LHP (Guardians, 1st Base and Auto, 58/44) - Reliable left-hander with a ton of personality that went to one of the best pitching dev orgs in baseball. No plus pitches, but throws four average to above average pitches that all work well with each other. Fastball velocity is only low 90s but he pairs that well with the curveball and commands it much better than other higher velocity arms. An advanced arm that likely doesn't need a ton of changes to get up to the majors and be a competent innings eater mid-rotation/backend starter. No real reliever risk either. Add in that previously mentioned personality (as Pitching Ninja said, "Nikhazy rhymes with crazy") and you get a Tier 3 pitcher as opposed to a Tier None pitcher.
Frank Mozzicato - LHP (Royals, 1st Base and Auto, 7/49) - The biggest surprise in the top ten overall picks and perhaps the entire first round was the Royals taking Mozzicato at 7th overall. He signed for almost $2 million dollars underslot, which gives a good idea of why the Royals went this route in an already pitching rich system. On the plus side, Mozzicato has one of the best curveballs in the draft with an easy delivery and an athletic projectability. Low 90s velocity on his fastball currently that will need to see an uptick. Changeup is his third pitch with above average potential, but hasn't thrown it much. Lefty prep arms have slightly less risk than righty prep arms, and Mozzicato already has a banger secondary with top 10 draft pedigree. This pushes me into putting him into the bottom of Tier 3 rather than Tier None where I would stick most prep arms.
Bryce Miller - RHP (Mariners, 1st Base and Auto, 113/122) - In general a profile like Miller's would be an easy Tier None call. An underslot former reliever who only started towards the end of his college career that is mainly a fastball-only guy doesn't often get the bump into Tier 3. I am making an exception because his fastball is seriously special. Double plus with some elite characteristics hitting 98 and averaging 96. Spin rates north of 2500 and double plus IVB, VAA, and Whiff% numbers. Watching a start of his in Low A and it was swing and miss after swing and miss on his fastball. Literally making the hitters look foolish. His main secondary that I saw him throwing was a curveball followed by a tight slider. I think I saw one changeup that missed completely. More often than not, the curveball and slider were either hit hard or taken for a strike middle-middle because the hitters were so geared towards the fastball. In other words, there is a lot of work to be done with his secondaries. A high leverage reliever with mid-rotation upside depending on how the secondaries develop with an absolutely lights out fastball gets into my Tier 3 based on upside.
Maddux Bruns - LHP (Dodgers, 1st Base and Auto, 29/68) - Ideal landing spot for Bruns as he gets into a top dev org. The Alabama prep lefty throws a low to mid 90s fastball with a hard slider and a decent curveball. Had some command issues and got touched up a bit on the circuit, but righted the ship in the spring and got a ton of strikeouts. Flashes potential mid-rotation starter - add in being a lefty and in the Dodgers org and I am going to push him into the bottom of Tier 3.
Logan Henderson - RHP (Brewers, 1st Base only, 116/268) - The NJCAA Division I Pitcher of the Year in 2021, he's a shorter (just under 6 feet tall) right-hander JUCO Bandit out of Texas has an effective low 90s fastball that is the table-setter for his double-plus changeup. Also will throw a curveball and slider to varying degrees of success - from what I saw, I liked the look of his curveball, so there is definitely something there. Fills up the zone and gets a lot of strikeouts. Normally this type of back end starter/bullpen arm would be a Tier None player, but given the strength of his changeup and his willingness to deploy it any time anywhere, he gets pushed into the bottom of Tier 3. Additional fastball velocity and/or increased development of his other secondaries will cement his big league status and I am betting on the Brewers dev org to do just that.
Jaden Hill - RHP (Rockies, 1st Base and Auto, 68/101) - If Jaden Hill was injury free, he would almost certainly be a Tier 2 arm. But back in reality land, Hill had UCL issues as a college freshman and after 29 innings in his 2021 Junior season, had to call it a season and go under the knife for Tommy John surgery. Athletic and prototypical starting pitcher size at 6'4" and 245 pounds, he was a 3-star quarterback recruit coming out of high school. Really raw from a pitching standpoint. Throws high 90s heat with two plus breaking balls in a slider and a changeup. The fastball doesn’t get as many swings and misses as you would hope given the velocity. Not surprising given his inexperience, but command and control were only average. Hill is truly a low-floor high ceiling player here - injury concerns and one of the worst orgs to develop in and big league parks to call home but with serious front-line stuff potential. I am going with the bottom of Tier 3 for him but would caution anyone interested here to be very aware of the downside.
McCade Brown - RHP (Rockies, 1st Base and Auto, 79/94) - The Rockies third-round pick is the epitome of one of the major archetypes of the Tier 3 pitcher - upside with physical projection and potential plus pitches that should equal a mid-rotation starter or better but lacking command and control to harness those talents. He throws a high spin rate fastball in the mid-90s with a top shelf plus curveball that gets whiffs aplenty. If Brown had landed in a strong pitching development organization like Cleveland or the Dodgers, I would feel like he should be slotted towards the top of Tier 3 with some thoughts about Tier 2. Those orgs would mold that clay as if he was Demi Moore and they were Patrick Swayze. Instead, he lands in a place where the deck is stacked against him and I am having thoughts of pushing him down into Tier None. I am going to split the difference and slide him into the bottom of Tier 3.
TIER NONE
Ethan Wilson - OF (Phillies, 1st Base and Auto, 49/32) - The Phillies’ second-round pick out of South Alabama showed up big his freshman year but hasn't repeated that peak since. Struggled against elite competition. Average to above average tools across the board but no standout carrying tool. I don't like the back and forth rocking motion for the swing either and hopefully he can quiet the movements to lead to better in zone contact and less swing and miss. For the moment, he is a Tier None player until his hit and/or power tools start to carry him further - I might be the low man on Wilson, but ideally I would like to see him turning his raw power into more frequent game power.
Cody Morissette - 2B (Marlins, 1st Base and Auto, 52/72) - Marlins 2nd rounder out of Boston College was slowed a bit by a thumb injury in his final year in college leading to only 6 long balls but still managed to hit enough to the tune of a .321 average. There is likely above average pop when he gets to the big leagues while hitting for a decent average, but has the classic left-hander approach where they prefer the ball down and struggle with pitches up in the zone. Doesn't have a slam dunk home on the infield, but should be able to play both second and third base as well as shortstop in a pinch. A utility infielder, strong side platoon floor with an outside shot as an everyday regular. That translates to a Tier None player with a small percentile outcome to reach Tier 3.
Jose Torres - SS (Reds, 1st Base and Auto, 89/85) - Defense first college shortstop that has shown some hit tool growth and sneaky pop, but essentially is an average offensive tool set at the moment. With added mass and MLB-driven development to sprinkle in some patience and more pop, you can easily imagine an above-average offensive player to pair with that plus defensive profile. At the moment, high floor low ceiling defense-first player is what you're looking at and that will almost always be Tier None. Another watchlist guy to see if that patience and power materialize to push him out of Tier None.
Donta’ Williams - OF (Orioles, 1st Base only, 106/333) - The Orioles underslot fourth-round pick out of the University of Arizona projects to a second division outfielder or strong side platoon as a lefty bat. Shows patience at the plate with more walks than strikeouts in his final season at Arizona as well as in his first go at the Minors. He will likely get double-digit steals even with a shorter, stouter build. I've seen him smoke balls, but the power is a lesser part of his game and is more gap-oriented than over the fence. Basically a collection of average tools with a plus plate approach and lacking in-game power is going to end up in Tier None, which is where I have Donta' for now. I really liked the looks I had and was tempted to push him up to Tier 3, but will let caution get the better part of valor here.
Ben Kudrna - RHP (Royals, 1st Base only, 43/31) - While the Royals went way underslot with their first-round pick, Frank Mozzicato, they went way overslot with their second-round pick in Ben Kudrna. Another righty prep arm that is long and lanky at 6'4" and under 200 pounds. Has the frame to add good mass. Features a plus fastball in the mid-90s to go with an above-average changeup that has good depth. Slider with decent bite is the third pitch in the arsenal that I saw get a fair amount of swing and misses on the 2020 circuit. Needs to add in the command and control that most prep arms lack, including Kudrna, and you can project a mid-rotation starter. With the inherent risk of prep righty profiles, he goes into the bucket of similar profiles in Tier None with a firm "watch list" designation. I've seen some higher on Kudrna than Mozzicato and I wouldn't argue too much against it, but I'd rather bet on the lefty over the righty.
Ryan Spikes - SS/2B (Rays, 1st Base and Auto, 100/104) - No elite tools but also no real skill deficiencies for the Georgia prep infielder. Hit tool is his best asset with the bat but will have some unexpected power - at the moment it's mostly doubles gap power. Was a shortstop (and a decent pitcher as well) in the prep ranks, but likely ends up at 2B in the pros given his height (5'9"). Nice floor of a utility player that fits the Rays interchangeable lineup model well but doesn't have the ceiling of anything higher than a Tier 3 player. For now, putting him in the top half of Tier None and keeping an eye on if he continues to show strong bat to ball skills.
Tommy Mace - RHP (Guardians, 1st Base and Auto, 69/42) - You take a look at Tommy Mace getting off the bus and you think "this is a big league starter". And while that may be the case, he hasn't shown the dominant stuff you would imagine when looking at him at 6'6" and 235 pounds. He throws a mid-90s four-seamer with a cutter that sometimes looks like a slider, a curveball, and a changeup. His curve is probably his best pitch, but all of them are in the average realm. He's more of a control guy that looks to induce weak contact rather than a swing and miss guy you saw getting off the bus. He did improve on his strikeouts in 2021, but I see that more as plus control taking advantage of college bats. The Cleveland pitching machine does give me pause and make me consider putting him up to Tier 3, but ultimately it feels like a floor of a backend starter with not much more of a ceiling than that. That has me putting him in Tier None, but I wouldn't fault anyone for thinking that he is more of a Tier 3 pitcher giving the physical projection, strikeout gains, and Cleveland secret sauce.
JT Schwartz - 1B (Mets, 1st Base only, 111/232) - Mets 4th round first baseman out of UCLA was a sought after prep but stuck with his college commitment. Due to previous lower half injury issues, he isn't likely to be able to bounce out to the outfield, limiting his positional value. That potentially becomes a problem with his biggest negative is his lack of power at the moment with bottom tier max velo numbers - not great when power is one of the bigger pre-requisites for first base. His plate approach, with that in mind, has been much more contact focused and he shows very strong plate skills regularly walking more than striking out. A very strong final season in Westwood was followed up by a disappointing 25 game sample at Low A in 2021, especially when you were hoping to see some power continue from what he started to show at the end of his stint at UCLA. I considered putting him into Tier 3, but all of the negatives cap his ceiling for the moment, even if his floor seems somewhat safe. If he can turn his batting practice power into game power without negatively impacting his contact and plate skills, then he will shoot up the Tiers. For now, he hangs out towards the top of Tier 4.
Cal Conley - 2B/SS (Braves, 1st Base only, 126/105) - The Braves 4th round pick out of Texas Tech has that middle infielder utility player look to him. A switch hitter that can steal a couple of bases and has more pop from the left side. A lot of my video looks at him were from the left side and he was pretty aggressive, especially with fastballs. He was able to put the bat on the ball a lot, but he ended up not really putting up good numbers in his 35 games at Low A this year. A tough Tier 4 choice as I don't see any standout tools but he absolutely raked in 2021 at Texas Tech. Potential for a good player as a table setter or bottom of the order bat, but there's better than an outside chance that he settles into pro ball and justifies a Tier 3 ranking in the future.
Reed Trimble - OF (Orioles, 1st Base only, 65/148) - The Orioles Comp B pick at 65th overall was one of the younger college players drafted this year. Switch hitter that looks good from both sides but better from the right with a plus player approach. Billed as a hit-over-power hitter, he surprisingly put up 17 home runs in 59 college games this year. A variety of different opinions out there on Trimble on whether he can hit for power in the pros, but everyone agrees that he has the speed to steal double-digit bases in the show. If he can be a 20/20 guy, then he suddenly jumps into Tier 3 if not Tier 2 depending on how well he can keep up his average. For now, without the exit velocity to support pro-level power, he's going to start towards the top of Tier None for me. Another player to keep an eye on.
Brandon Boissiere - 1B/OF (Nationals, 1st Base and Auto, 82/276) - The 3rd rounder out of the University of Arizona is not your traditional corner power bat. He is more of an above-average hit tool with average pop and good plate skills. If the Nats can follow the Dodgers development model of drafting hitters and adding the pop through swing adjustments, Boissiere becomes a much more interesting player. As it stands now, he doesn't have the profile to be more than a second-division regular. Without the power behind that profile, he's easily in Tier None until further development.
John Rhodes - OF (Orioles, 1st Base only, 76/125) - Corner outfield profile that was a draft eligible sophomore out of Kentucky. Collection of average tools that can go either way on the hit/power pendulum, but probably doesn't have the pure skills to do both at a plus level in the future. The profile will depend on how the Orioles push him. Decent approach, decent hit tool, could show some power, but nothing really to get excited about. Tier None slotting with an outside chance of ticking up to Tier 3.
Cooper Bowman - 2B (Yankees, 1st Base only, 122/186) - If you haven't heard them already, get ready to hear them regularly as every breaker and collector who hits a Cooper Bowman card will squeeze whatever jokes are possible out of him being in a Bowman product. The Yankees fourth-round selection out of Louisville is a good all-around player, but doesn't have any standout tools. Above average, potentially plus, hit tool that can sneak in some average power and should be able to reach double-digit steals. Mainly a second baseman, but can provide third base and shortstop depth as well. Solid player, but no carrying tools. Outside of the name and being on the Yankees, you wouldn't think twice about putting him in Tier None. I'm not going to think twice either.
Andrew Abbott - LHP (Reds, 1st Base and Auto, 53/55) - The Reds’ second rounder moved from the bullpen to the starter role in 2021 at the University of Virginia. The left-hander is a fit in either role as his pitches tunnel well, he fills up the zones and he gets strikeouts while limiting walks. His low to mid-90's fastball is average but he can command it up in the zone nicely and it pairs well with his sweeping slurve style plus breaking ball. Will also throw an average changeup now that he's starting that shows nice arm-side fade when it's on. A high floor for the smaller statured pitcher, but not a high ceiling either. Backend starter with bullpen risk or follower type role lands him in Tier None.
Ben Casparius - RHP (Dodgers, 1st Auto only, 162/187) - Solid back-end rotation guy. Throws strikes and has an effective three-pitch mix. Average low to mid 90's fastball that serve to setup above average to plus slider and changeup. Changeup gets the most swing and miss and has noticeable run as well as fade. Not a lot of mileage on the arm which helps from a health perspective, but on the flip side, may slow his progress as the Dodgers build up his innings. A top half of Tier None guy but with the Dodger development magic, I wouldn't be surprised if he belongs in Tier 3 as soon as next year.
Matt Mikulski - LHP (Giants, 1st Base and Auto, 50/51) - The lefty arm from Fordham took a huge leap from undrafted in 2020 to be the Giants’ second rounder in 2021. An uptick in velocity topping out at 98 for his fastball and significantly improved command that lead the nation in K/9 were the primary drivers of this. He'll throw a hard slider and a good changeup that are both average to above-average pitches at times. He has both outcomes of a backend starter or high leverage bullpen arm basically equally weighted in his future. As such, he's mostly a top of Tier None player, but those eye-popping strikeout numbers in 2021 gave me pause for Tier 3 consideration. Ultimately I decided to go the conservative route and push him into Tier None.
Brendan Beck - RHP (Yankees, 1st Base and Auto, 55/157) - Younger brother of Giants farmhand Tristan Beck was passed over in the COVID shortened 2020 draft and came back to Stanford for his senior season to be the staff ace. A pitchability righty with a bucket of average offerings starting with a low 90s fastball and a slider, curveball, and changeup as his secondaries. He can throw them all for strikes and mixes pitches well. Other than building innings, there isn't much more he can do unless the Yankees can squeeze some more fastball velocity out of his arm. If they can, he suddenly becomes much more interesting. But for now, he's a pitchability backend starter with a safe floor and not a ton of ceiling, which is a standard Tier None call.
Sean Burke - RHP (White Sox, 1st Base and Auto, 94/64) - The tall (6'6") righty out of the University of Maryland has an easy delivery for someone as big as he is. Features a mid 90s fastball and a 12-6 knuckle curve. He'll also throw an average slider and changeup, but I rarely saw it in the starts I watched. His command needs a fair amount of work, but he lived all around the edges of the zone even when he was missing which is promising. A lot of strikeouts in college and in his brief minors exposure this year with both the knuckle curve and fastball. If he can develop the other secondaries and improve the command, he ends up at the back end of the rotation. If he can't, he focuses on upping the fastball velocity and becoming a two-pitch high leverage reliever. All the ingredients of another Tier None pitcher.
Robert Gasser - LHP (Padres, 1st Base and Auto, 71/108) - The left-hander out of the University of Houston was the Padres Comp B round pick which was evidence of his hard work he has put in to build up from an uninteresting relief arm that's bounced through a couple of stops to a potential back end of the rotation starter. Has an above-average fastball in the low to mid 90's with plus vertical approach angle that gets a decent amount of swing and misses. Next up is a low to mid 80's sweeping slider with above-average spin and horizontal break which also generates a fair amount of whiffs. His third pitch is an average changeup that does have some nice arm-side fade to it and will also get some whiffs. A curveball is there as well, but I rarely saw it. A bullpen floor, but I think we also have a good likelihood that he ends up as that backend starter the Padres probably drafted him for. A Tier None profile for now, but given where he started and where he's at now, someone I want to keep an eye on as there may be even more there with the hard work he's shown he is willing to put in.
Steven Hajjar - LHP (Twins, 1st Base and Auto, 61/114) - A well-known name since his prep days, Hajjar was taken in the second round by the Twins at slot value. While he lead the Big Ten in strikeouts in 2021, the big (6'5") lefty from the University of Michigan has a collection of average to above-average pitches. A lot of the strikeouts I saw were of the called strike variety rather than the more desirable swing and miss variety. Has a low 90s fastball that can get up to 95 in-game, but mostly lives in the 90 to 93 range. Slider and changeup alternate between being the more effective secondary to get those desired swings and misses and he'll throw an occasional show me 12-6 curveball. This pick was likely all about projection as Hajjar showed up to the MLB Draft Combine with a 97 mph heater in the bag. For now, a backend rotation role is the most likely outcome, but physically their is potential for a solid mid-rotation arm. Tier None with a watch label to see if he can tick up the velocity in-game and get more swing and miss when he starts getting pro innings under his belt.
Michael Morales - RHP (Mariners, 1st Base and Auto, 83/130) - The Vanderbilt commit took an overslot deal to break that commitment as it is one of the harder colleges to get guys away from. A right-handed prep pitcher out of Pennsylvania had a tough guy in the All-Star circuit in 2020, but came back strong in the spring. He went from a low 90s fastball that looked relatively straight in 2020 to a 93-94 with movement. His curveball is his best secondary and a swing and miss pitch. Plus mechanics from a 3/4 slot that is fluid and repeatable. No current bullpen risk as the expectation is that he'll be able to stick as a starting pitcher. Lacking the collectible team bump and round 1 draft pick bump, the risky righty prep pitcher profile is going to keep Morales in Tier None. But like the rest of the guys with this profile, keep tabs on them.
Joe Rock - LHP (Rockies, 1st Base and Auto, 68/101) - The highest pick ever at Ohio University, the 6'6" lefty has some projection left as he barely tips the scales at 200 pounds. Features a low to mid 90's fastball and a plus sweeping slider that play up due to his arm angle and height. Has an average changeup for his third pitch, but doesn't have much faith to throw it regularly. Backend starter potential with perhaps some more when added mass leads to increased fastball velocity. Middle of Tier None pitcher with the Rockies drag keeping him from Tier 3 consideration.
Russell Smith - LHP (Brewers, 1st Base and Auto, 51/170) - The tallest player in the product at 6'9", the left-hander out of TCU can have dominant outings with how he gets down the mound and fills up the zone. A low 90's fastball plays up because of that and it occasionally will show some arm-side run as well. The changeup plays well off of it and a tight slider can be effective at times. He also should work on not throwing the pitch into Jace Jung's wheelhouse - Holy Moly. Anyways, mostly a back-end starter looks with some bullpen risk if he can't get the slider to be more consistent. Brewers dev org likely gets the most out of him, but at his height, a lot has to continue to go right and that has me sliding him into the top of Tier None instead of the bottom of Tier 3.
Cameron Cauley - SS (Rangers, 1st Base only, 73/230) - The prep shortstop out of Texas has all the tools to stick at short which is his main calling card. On the smaller side at the moment, you hope he adds just a bit more size to really cement his ability to stick at short, but 2B is a definite long-term possibility. Mostly average tools on the offensive side of the equation. While the data shows he is slightly above average in his Chase %, the majority of video I watched showed more chasing than I like. It also seemed like he was a bit over-matched at the complex level. All in all, a defense-first Tier None player that will need to take big strides with the bat in his hand to move up the Tiers.
Tyler McDonough - 2B/OF (Red Sox, 1st Base and Auto, 75/207) - No real standout tools but no real deficiencies either. The third-rounder out of NC State has a good floor but not really a high ceiling with the most likely outcome of a utility player that can play a majority of the positions on the diamond. With full run, he could hit for a good average, get 20 home runs, and steal 20 bases. Great for a later fantasy baseball pick and a nice real-life baseball roster piece. But without an elite hobby skill, he is on that threshold of Tier None/Tier 3. I'll drop him into the top of Tier None for now. But, with the Red Sox bump, I could see some short term value in the future in the mold of Nick Maton where he debuts with a hot 3-4 weeks and his 1st Bowman’s base autos go for $50+ instead of the $10 they likely should go for long term.
Max Ferguson - 2B (Padres, 1st Auto only, 160/171) - The Padres 5th round selection out of the University of Tennessee had a tough final season in Knoxville that saw him sell out for pull-side power which ended up significantly impacting his strong batting average of past seasons. At his best, he is probably more of a hit-over-power second baseman or center fielder with plus speed and a strong on-base approach. At worst, he is a utility player that is passive at the plate with disappointing bat speed. He'll be a Tier None player for me until we see which way his development path trends towards.
Jordan McCants - SS (Marlins, 1st Base and Auto, 88/152) - Marlins’ 3rd selection out of the Florida prep ranks is a double plus runner and not much else. He doesn't look to be swinging with any sort of authority with a swing more line drive-oriented than power producing. Mostly wants to get the ball in play and run which can find some success, but isn't going to drive much hobby interest. Fair chance he won’t stick at shortstop. More than likely a table setting second division regular outcome. An easy Tier None slot unless there are significant developmental improvements.
Eric Silva - RHP (Giants, 1st Base only, 115/162) - Giants took the Kyle Harrison approach again with taking a prep arm and paying him overslot money - in Silva's case, a million dollars over slot. Silva, though, is more of a slimmer athletic frame and throws from the right-hand side. His fastball sits mid-90s but will lose velocity pretty quickly during his outings. Slider is his main secondary with plus spin to the tune of 2800+. Changeup wasn't great and he has trouble commanding it in the looks I had. The Giants probably saw the plus spin and extension numbers with the fastball ride and see a future starter's arsenal with a lot of development. I can squint and see it as well, but I am taking the easy way out and putting him in Tier None as a high-risk prep right-hander that needs to get an effective third pitch before climbing up the Tier rankings.
Mason Black - RHP (Giants, 1st Base and Auto, 85/90) - Right-hander out of mid-major school Lehigh taken by the Giants in the third round to continue their pitching-focused draft. Stock fell a bit with his inconsistent command being the main drag in 2021. Fastball is mid-90's topping out at 98 with some noticeable run on occasion. Slider and changeup would flash but also were part of his command woes. Development project that could land either in the rotation or the bullpen. Tier None guy with the potential for Tier 3 if the Giants can get him right.
Ky Bush - LHP (Angels, 1st Base and Auto, 45/73) - Angels 2nd Rounder out of St. Mary's College cuts an imposing figure on the mound at 6'5" and 250 pounds. The lefty has a mid-90s fastball that he mostly throws to the arm-side of the plate and struggles to get it to the glove side, making it tough to keep right-handers from crowding the plate. His main secondary is a slider that he keeps down when he's on and is a major swing and miss pitch, especially after the steady diet of fastballs that he relies on. He also throws a curveball and a changeup that I saw in his college tape but didn't see at all at the Complex. Both pitches looked good in college. His command looked to be an issue as he regularly missed his spots in the videos I watched. His floor is a high leverage relief arm with an outside shot at a backend rotation guy, but that will take some refinement to get there. He's an easy Tier None call for the moment but someone to keep an eye on because the raw stuff is there to become a lot more.
Ricky Tiedemann - LHP (Blue Jays, 1st Base and Auto, 91/91) - Left-handed pitching prospect that we didn't get to see much of before the draft but apparently took an uptick in dev during instructs. 6'4" and all legs which seem to cause issues with consistency in his delivery and command. Looked to be an uncomfortable at bat for left-handers. This one is likely a slow burn as he fills out and gets shaped by MLB dev staff. Right now, I can easily see a future high leverage bullpen arm or an SP4. This is a Tier None profile that could jump into Tier Three depending on how his development trends.
Shane Panzini - RHP (Royals, 1st Base and Auto, 108/113) - Along with the Royals’ second and third-round picks, Shane Panzini was another overslot signer, this time in the fourth round with the Royals spreading around that seventh overall pick money around. Good size at 6'3" and 220 pounds, he is one of the older prep players having turned 20 at the end of this past October. Mid-90s fastball with three secondaries all average to above average in a slider, curveball, and changeup. Seemed like the biggest challenge with Panzini is the command of his secondaries, and even his fastball in some of the Circuit tape I watched. Mid-rotation starter ceiling, but definite bullpen risk with his older prep arm that was command challenged. Another righty prep arm that makes sense to start in Tier None until further notice.
Jacob Steinmetz - RHP (Diamondbacks, 1st Base and Auto, 77/134) - Steinmetz is a tall (6'5") prep right-hander out of the New York area that I couldn't find many looks of and has barely more than 1 inning of pro ball pitched so far down at the complex. He was previously a low 90's fastball that is reportedly getting up to the mid-90s and features 3 different secondaries. The only one I got a good look at was the curveball, which had really nice 12-6 break to it. He tended to mostly throw this to his arm side and was inconsistent with location from what I saw. The rarely seen, if ever, in baseball tidbit to Steinmetz is that he is an Orthodox Jew, so that will likely get some regular mentions as he works his way up the minors. Currently, it looks like his personal approach is that during the Sabbath (sundown Friday to sundown Saturday), he will pitch, but has to be able to walk to the ballpark. Due to the general lack of information/video and what is likely a raw prep RHP, I am putting him in Tier None and making a note to check him out further in 2022.
Micah Ottenbreit - RHP (Phillies, 1st Base and Auto, 114/155) - Lanky prep right-hander standing 6'4" that looks like a back-end starter that will need a lot of development work to get there. Low 90's fastball needs to add some velocity and a lot of command, but has some nice arm-side horizontal break. I saw him regularly missing this pitch to his arm-side. His curveball is plus and his best pitch. He had a fair amount of control with it landing in the zone regularly as well as getting plenty of swings and misses. Has a changeup as his third pitch in the arsenal that shows promise but has a long way to go. Raw backend starting pitchers are an obvious Tier None and check back in a few years to see how things have developed.
Drew Gray - LHP (Cubs, 1st Base and Auto, 93/149) - Cubs third-round pick out of the prep factory IMG Academy who was a two-player there. Drafted to pitch, he's a raw work in progress. Nicely balanced delivery that features a low 90's fastball and a biting 12/6 curveball. Saw multiple hitters have trouble facing that pitch. As he learns how to pitch with an exclusive focus on the mound, I can see Gray jumping up the lists and Tiers, but for now, I will slot him into the top of Tier None. Another player I will be keeping a close watch on to see if he can develop a third pitch and build up the velocity on his fastball.
Calvin Ziegler - RHP (Mets, 1st Base and Auto, 46/180) - Mets 2nd round righty prep arm originally from Canada but pitched in the Florida prep ranks before the draft. Lots of raw stuff with big spin to get excited about lead by a mid-90's fastball and a swing and miss slider when he has it working. Saw quite a few Florida preps swinging and missing at both his fastball as well as the slider. Missing an effective third pitch. Was lacking a lot of command and control in some looks, at others he was a zone pounder. Another in a long line of prep arms in this product that I will be keeping an eye on to see if they can jump up the lists and Tiers, but for now with the risk and rawness inherent to these profiles, he's going to be in Tier None.
Brock Selvidge - LHP (Yankees, 1st Base only, 92/182) - Yankees 3rd round lefty prep arm out of Chandler, Arizona. Low 90's fastball with arm-side run that leads to uncomfortable at bats for left-handers. He seemed to work the middle to arm side of the plate against right-handers and most anything that ended up on the inside to righties ended up at their feet. Slider is his most effective secondary pitch with some nice sweeping break to it at times while his changeup has a ways to go. A back-end starter profile with the potential to get into that SP3 type role because Yankees have been a strong pitching dev org. Top of Tier None with potential for some upward hobby mobility as he climbs Yankees prospect lists.
Mitch Bratt - LHP (Rangers, 1st Auto only, 134/287) - Prep left-hander originally from Canada but was pitching in the Georgia prep ranks. High 80's to Low 90's fastball with an above-average curveball as his main secondary. The curveball has nice shape and snap to it with good spin. Changeup is his third offering, but is inconsistent and I didn't see him throw it much. Some projection here could see him work towards a mid-rotation starter with more muscle and the associated velo gains, but for now I will slot him in with the majority of the other prep arms in Tier None.
Owen Kellington - RHP (Pirates, 1st Base only, 102/NR) - The prep right-handed pitcher dominated the not-so-hotbed of the Vermont prep ranks. 6'3" and 190 pounds indicates that there is room to add good muscle to his frame and tick his velocity up from low 90s to mid 90s. The fastball appears above average with the horizontal arm side run to it. He uses a 12-6 curveball as his primary secondary that looks potentially plus. There is almost no video out there, so he is a hard-to-evaluate arm at the moment. What I did see in addition to the fastball and curveball was a pitching motion that almost looked like he was falling towards the first base side mid-arm swing which lead to the pitches all staying arm-side. Would like to see if that is a consistent thing and perhaps an adjustment can be made or if that was just the short video I saw. For now, given he is a cold-arm prep righty without a ton of fanfare and very little information, the profile is extremely risky and someone I will drop into Tier None.
Landon Marceaux - RHP (Angels, 1st Base and Auto, 80/136) - Angels 3rd round right-hander out of LSU is a classic backend SP profile. Low to mid 90s fastball with velocity with a variety of secondaries that he throws with confidence and tunnels well. The slider and the curveball are the best of those and are his most effective pitches. A real steady Eddie type that will eat innings for the Angels in the future. High-floor low ceiling backend starting pitchers are an easy slot into Tier None which is where I have Marceaux.
Chayce McDermott - RHP (Astros, 1st Base only, 132/111) - Astros 4th round pick out of Ball State has the look and feel of a backend starting pitcher. Mid-90's fastball that he throws often with good IVB numbers and good location. He regularly keeps it in the zone and is able to get plenty of swing and misses with it. His main secondary is a 12-6 curveball that also gets its fair share of swing and misses and will be thrown in any count, but I've seen him lose the feel for it as he gets deeper into starts. His third pitch is a hard 12-6 slider without a ton of break that he will keep low but won't throw that often. He's also got a decent changeup, but I didn't see him throw it much if at all. With some velo uptick, I could see McDermott cementing his role as a backend SP, but probably not much more than a mid-rotation SP at best, which keeps him in Tier None for now and possibly a Tier 3 guy at peak.
Chad Dallas - RHP (Blue Jays, 1st Base only, 121/185) - Backend starter profile that is the classic pitchability right-hander. Command and control is his game and letting hitters make mistakes rather than having a ton of raw stuff. Cutter is likely his best pitch. High floor low ceiling guy with not a ton of raw stuff nor athleticism to get excited about. An easy Tier None slotting for the Blue Jays 4th rounder.
Brooks Gosswein - RHP (White Sox, 1st Base only, 124/215) - Fourth-year senior that jumped into rounds 3 - 6 conversation when the left-handed pitcher started hitting 95 on the gun and spinning plus curveballs. Ended up going in the 4th round to the White Sox on an underslot deal after an up and down final college season including a month of downtime mid-season. Fastball is average but has decent velocity and horizontal break from the left side. Curveball is above average and he sequences it well with his fastball. I've seen him throw it on every pitch count to get swing and misses as well as called strikes when needed. Didn't see him throw the changeup much, but that is what will determine if he is just an up and down starter or simply org depth as a backend starter. Easy Tier None choice for me.
Tanner Bibee - RHP (Guardians, 1st Auto only, 156/224) - Fourth-year Senior pitcher out of Cal State Fullerton selected by Cleveland in the fifth year is the classic back-end starter profile. Fills up the zone and relies on weak contact and plus command with his four-pitch mix. Throws both four-seamer and a cutter that are in the low 90s with an above-average slider and a changeup. Slider is the out pitch. Will have to see more velocity and his secondaries get to the next level before he gets considered for Tier 3.
Zane Mills - RHP (Cardinals, 1st Auto only, 120/286) - Mills is a back-end starter profile that doesn't have any real plus pitches but has plus command. Looks to get weak contact and ground balls featuring mainly a sinker/slider combo and will mix in a changeup. This is a classic Tier None profile with very little to interest the hobby.
Cade Povich - LHP (Twins, 1st Base and Auto, 98/537) - Not sure how many times we will hear the joke that Maury is not his father, but I am here for all of them. The 6'3" lefty out of the University of Nebraska fills up the zone which sometimes is beneficial as it keeps the walks down, but sometimes it bites him as his mostly average stuff can get touched up. Fastball lives in the low 90's with the slider in the mid-80's as his best secondary. He's a skinny 6'3" - with added mass, you hope that will lead to an increase in velocity which suddenly makes him a much more interesting pitcher given his plus command. An easy Tier None choice for now, but I can squint and see a potential mid-rotation, Tier 3 starting pitcher at some point in his future.
Kevin Kopps - RHP (Padres, 1st Base and Auto, 99/189) - The 6th year Senior out of Arkansas is a high leverage bullpen arm that was an underslot target in round 4. For all intents and purposes, he is a one-pitch pitcher. A double plus slider with 12-6 break can be thrown for strikes in the zone are down in the zone for easy swing and misses. He'll mix in a low 90s fastball as his main secondary pitch with below-average curveball and a rare changeup. He racks up a ton of strikeouts with that slider and it is a thing of beauty to watch. That being said, even with a ceiling of a lights out closer, it's hard to put someone with a single pitch bullpen profile as anything but Tier None.
Austin Love - RHP (Cardinals, 1st Base and Auto, 90/168) - The Friday night starter for the Tar Heels in 2021 was drafted in the third round by the Cardinals and will likely be given a shot to continue to start before he most likely gets pushed to the bullpen. He has a low to mid 90's fastball and reportedly can reach back for more and pairs that with average-ish sliders and changeups. The main concern is command and control along with an inconsistent feel for his secondaries. Watching some video and he was regularly missing location. When he did get it put where the catcher wanted it, he did seem to get a fair amount of swing and misses. An inconsistent backend starter type with command and control issues that lead to bullpen risk is going to end up in Tier None almost every time.
Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz - RHP (Red Sox, 1st Base only, 105/426) - The prep right-hander out of Puerto Rico is a gangly 6'4" featuring a low to mid 90's fastball with a curveball with good spin as his main secondary pitch. He'll also throw a changeup occasionally. The fastball often ends up on the glove side of the plate, given an appearance of some left to right movement on the fastball for the hitter. A raw, prep right-hander that likely adds more weight, wasn't exactly hitting his spots regularly, and with plenty of development required to really have a good idea of what he will be is going to land in Tier None quite regularly.
Tanner Allen - OF (Marlins, 1st Base and Auto, 118/119) - 5th year Senior out of Mississippi State that was an underslot sign to help support the Khalil Watson pick. A short strider that’s more geared towards contact than power but will put the ball over the fence on occasion. No standout tools and already older than his counterparts, he probably ends up as a strong side platoon or 4th outfielder type role. That's a typical Tier None player.
Spencer Schwellenbach - RHP (Braves, 1st Base and Auto, 59/56) - The two-way player at Nebraska finally got back to pitching in his final season in college, albeit all out of the bullpen, following arm surgery after high school. A competent shortstop, he was being considered in round 1 but ultimately fell to the Braves in round 2 on an underslot deal. And then we came to find out that was because he had to go under the knife for Tommy John surgery. What we know is that the Braves still intend to develop him as a starting pitcher and has the potential to be a back end rotation piece with a mid-90s fastball, a low 80s slider, and an effective changeup. He was a more than competent shortstop in college, but for now, that isn't in the cards. A back-end starter with a history of arm injuries is an easy Tier None decision until we see his return to the mound.
Ryan Webb - LHP (Guardians, 1st Base and Auto, 125/77) - The left-hander out of the University of Georgia was primarily used as a reliever until the past season given the strength of the starting rotation in previous years. Average fastball with a plus curveball and above average slider and changeup, but the curveball and slider can have the lines blurred depending on how well his command is running. When it's on, the curveball is a nice 11-5 swing and miss pitch that tunnels well with his fastball. With more work on his fastball, he could end up as a mid-rotation starter, but this will have to be a wait-and-see game as he had to go under the knife for TJ late in the spring. Lacking the pedigree and huge upside, TJ pitchers are almost always going to end up in Tier None which is where I am putting Webb.
Dustin Saenz - LHP (Nationals, 1st Base only, 112/103) - The National's fourth-round pick out of Texas A&M didn't get drafted in the COVID-shortened 2020 draft. Started for A&M in all 14 of his appearances with a healthy amount of strikeouts but not a ton of overall success. Low to mid-90s with his velocity and often sits around 94 MPH without much movement and mostly living in the upper half of the zone. Seemed easy for hitters to pick up and put the bat on the ball, even if it wasn't always successful. I didn't see anyone fully square up his fastball, but I also saw a ton of contact and very few times where it caused a swing and miss. His best secondary is a slider, which is where he does get the swing and miss and it plays well off of his steady diet of upper quadrant fastballs. He has all the look of a spot starter/middle relief bullpen arm with a ceiling of an SP5 which is why he is firmly in Tier None.
Mason Miller - RHP (Athletics, 1st Base and Auto, 97/218) - Third times the charm for the Athletics 3rd rounder out of Gardner-Webb as this was his third pass through the MLB draft. The right-hander was a starter in college with a mid-90's fastball that can top out close to 99 and three secondaries with the slider being the best of them followed by a curveball. While he spins the fastball, it's not as effective as one would think, and his tall, lanky frame (6'5") has mechanical/delivery concerns. He is mostly viewed as a reliever and that limits his hobby interest to Tier None until further notice.
Jackson Wolf - LHP (Padres, 1st Base only, 129/475) - The 4th year Senior left-hander out of West Virginia was a starter in college but projects more as a bullpen arm. There's an outside shot as a back-end starter, especially if the fastball velocity ticks up, but it typically lives in the low 90s. It does have some promise with above-average horizontal break and vertical approach numbers and it comes from a 3/4 arm slot from a dude standing 6'7". An average breaker that sometimes shows as a slider and sometimes as a curve with a fringe changeup completes his arsenal. The Padres are giving him an opportunity to start for now, but he's a tough at bat for lefties and I would speculate that he eventually gets moved to the bullpen to come in against a tough left-handed portion of a lineup.
Christian Scott - RHP (Mets, 1st Auto only, 142/330) - Two pitch late innings reliever out of the University of Florida. Fastball sits mid-90s but can kick up higher with some life on it. Slider flashes as a swing and miss pitch in the mid-80s. Perhaps he works his way into a high leverage role and generates some value, but it's hard to get excited about a relief-only profile with no elite traits. An easy Tier None rank.
Luke Murphy - RHP (Angels, 1st Base and Auto, 110/NR) - Angels 4th round reliever out of Vanderbilt tore his UCL before getting to campus in the summer of 2018 and then got only a partial season when he came back in 2020 due to the pandemic. He did go from a beanpole appearance to a solid 6'5" 200-ish frame in that time, so he put that to good use. Used exclusively in relief since his return from TJ and leans heavily on his fastball which sits mid to upper 90s. I caught a few glimpses of a 12-6 curveball that mostly he didn't finish leaving it up high. Also has a slider which I didn't see. I don't project Murphy being anything other than a reliever long term and he really needs to get at least a second reliable pitch to keep major league hitters from sitting on his heater. If he does, then he becomes a potential high leverage arm. Still no reason to put him anywhere else but Tier None.
Ruben Ibarra - 1B (Reds, 1st Base and Auto, 119/NR) - Fourth-round pick out of San Jose State was a large underslot pick and off the radar of most boards, including ours. He is a big dude coming in at 6'5" and 290 pounds with the requisite raw power. An average hit tool and a willingness to take a walk in college, but showed increased strikeout rates in his short stint in the minors this year. Not a ton of video to watch, but he has a swing geared for power and reportedly hit one out almost 500 feet in the Complex league. Given his frame, I would be surprised if he sticks at first base - he has DH written all over him and the Dan Vogelbach/Rowdy Tellez comps are likely going to be a regular occurrence. With more info and video, I might consider a plus power bat as a standout tool and in consideration for Tier 3, but the expected DH penalty and the overall profile seems like a Tier None guy to me until I see more.
Tyler Mattison - RHP (Tigers, 1st Base only, 104/NR) - Underslot senior sign in round 4 for the Tigers out of Bryant University. Prototype size at 6'4" 230-ish pounds. Low to mid 90s fastball that reportedly has started to top out in the upper 90s with a changeup, slider, and curveball that he throws with varying degrees of success for his secondaries. Mostly looks to have average pitches across the board and is a classic back-end SP type. Didn't pitch in the minors post-draft, so the only video is against weaker college teams. It looked decent and he threw a lot of strikes, but I didn't see anything special that would push him out of the Tier None conversation for now.
Chad Patrick - RHP (Diamondbacks, 1st Base only, 107, NR) - I'm going to be honest here - I knew nothing about Chad Patrick before the draft, and at this point, I haven't been able to fill that gap with much. A fourth-year senior from Purdue University, but no, not that Purdue, but Division II Purdue University Northwest that put up big numbers in 2021 to the tune of a sub-2 ERA and a 13.6 K/9 in 9 games started. There is very little video and the two games he did pitch in Visalia this year are not available on MiLB TV. Given what I did find, he looks to throw both a four-seamer and a two-seamer in the low 90s with a nicely shaped slurve and a changeup. Lacking any further info, I am going to stick him in Tier None and make a point to get more looks at him in 2022 to see if there is a reason he didn't make it into the Prospects Live top 600 draft prospects pre-draft but was taken in the 4th round by the Diamondbacks besides getting a savings of almost $200K.
NOT QUITE THE MAIN ATTRACTION
The nice thing about Bowman Draft, in contrast to the other core Bowman releases of Bowman Baseball and Bowman Chrome, is that you don’t have any active MLB players in the product. This is purely a prospect product. Outside of the 1st Bowman prospects above, you will also get plenty of base and autos from non-1st Bowman prospects. Not nearly as highly valued, but still worth being aware of and collecting, perhaps at a cheaper price point than their 1st Bowman cards. These include autographed cards for guys like Julio Rodriguez, Spencer Torkelson, Marco Luciano, Jasson Dominguez, Luis Rodriguez, Blaze Jordan, and Yoelqui Cespedes.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Some might say four Tier 1 players in a product would make a great product, and without context, they would be correct. Unfortunately one of those Tier 1 players, Brady House, doesn’t have any autographed cards, severely limiting the chase for his cards. Secondly, in the context of previous Bowman Draft releases, especially with the previous three years, this isn’t in the same ballpark. For example, if I had done Tiers for 2020 Bowman Draft, I would have had double the amount of players in Tier 1. It doesn’t help that the first overall pick in 2021 was a catcher and that almost half of the first round of the 2021 MLB draft were pitchers (and the Angels went full on hobby troll mode by having an entire draft of pitchers). Finally Topps, for whatever reason, decided to hold back more players towards the top rounds than I think many of us were used to seeing. Add in two to three of these guys and we start to get closer to previous years - Jack Leiter, Khalil Watson, Colson Montgomery, Joshua Baez, Max Muncy, Matt McLain, and Trey Sweeney would all be welcome additions. Not to mention two of the potential bigger names that ended up not signing in Kumar Rocker and Jud Fabian. The product isn’t terrible and there are plenty of players I like and would love to own their cards. But this isn’t your Bowman Draft that you might be used to.