9 days to go until the 2021 MLB Draft. Crunch time. We’re getting close…
Little by little, some information trickles in as we narrow down who teams have circled on their big boards.
Some of these picks were made at the direction and insight of folks inside big league scouting organizations, and some were not. But with one month in front of us before the 2021 MLB Draft, you can be sure teams are getting a better idea of their targets come July 11.
1. Pittsburgh Pirates
Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake
It’s a money game. That should come as no surprise. The Pirates, like most teams at the top, are looking to cut a deal in the hopes of saving money for rounds 2, 3, 4 and beyond. Mayer might not only present the best deal, but he may be the best prospect in the class regardless. It’s a premier body with long levers and fluid actions in every aspect of his game. We project Mayer a potential plus hitter with plus power at the next level -- a .280/25-homer type of hitter. Maybe projects a slightly above average defender at shortstop where his quiet actions and ability to glide should make for one of the most sure-handed players at his position. He doesn’t have the burst of explosiveness to suggest he’ll make the highlight reel play to his right with regularity, but it might not matter considering everything else will be gobbled up. We think Mayer projects into something similar to Xander Bogaerts, a 60+ role guy who glues together a lineup in the 3 or 4 hole of a very good lineup. The Pirates are surely exploring what deals with Jordan Lawlar, Henry Davis and Kahlil Watson look like here too. Curiously, they also had Sal Frelick in for a workout this week.
2. Texas Rangers
Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt
There’s growing sentiment among scouts and evaluators that Leiter and the Rangers may eventually end up a pair. Rangers’ brass Chris Young and Skip Fagg are said to be enamored by Leiter and his meta-suited fastball. It’s a profile that would play at the big league level almost immediately, and the Rangers have given no indication they intend on tearing anything down. The Rangers have been connected to Jordan Lawlar, Henry Davis and Kahlil Watson with this pick as well.
3. Detroit Tigers
Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall
The haircut pick. In a perfect world, Mayer falls into the lap of the Tigers and they get the guy they’ve seemingly coveted from the jump. But Jobe likely presents the Tigers the opportunity to save some money here and splurge in their later picks. It’s a deep draft class and not particularly heavy at the top. Jobe might eventually end up being the best arm in this class. Some evaluators have said he’s in a different tier than Rocker already. Coupling him with high upside picks in the later rounds is a solid strategy. Still, most believe this will end up being one of Mayer, Leiter or Jobe.
4. Boston Red Sox
Henry Davis, C, Louisville
More and more, we’re hearing the Red Sox have the Vandy Boys circled. They love Jack Leiter, and have been led to believe Kumar Rocker is their backup plan. That said, there are also folks inside the industry that believe this is the floor for Davis. The best college bat in the class, Davis not only represents and exceptional value for the Red Sox at 4, but also checks a lot of boxes in terms of previous Red Sox models. Granted, they haven’t picked this high in a very long time. It’s not hard to envision Davis blistering more dents into the green monster by 2023. The Sox have also been connected to Lawlar and Kahlil Watson here. They’re in a bit of a wait-and-see mode.
5. Baltimore Orioles
Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest (HS)
One thing is certain with Mike Elias and the Orioles. They’re a pretty good bet to save some cash with their first round pick. It’s an annual exercise. Watson is believed to be a pretty safe bet to take a deal at the top of the first round. Regardless, there are scouts who believe he’s the best prep bat in the class. Watson might not be the fastest mover to the big leagues, and probably enters the fold in the middle of the Orioles upcoming window, but the Birds land a premier bat at an up-the-middle position here. We’ve heard Baltimore connected to Colson Cowser, Sal Frelick, Kumar Rocker and Harry Ford here as well.
6. Arizona Diamondbacks
Jordan Lawlar, SS, Dallas Jesuit
It’s pretty difficult to envision a scenario where Lawlar slides past 6. He’s legitimately in play at every spot above this, so falling into the laps of Arizona is an enormous boon for the snakes. It would surprise no one if he went first overall. The Diamondbacks have shown an affinity to high-profile preps in the past, and Lawlar certainly fits that bill. Kumar Rocker makes some sense here, though there has been some buzz surrounding Benny Montgomery as well in recent days from scouts.
7. Kansas City Royals
Will Taylor, OF, Dutch Fork
There may not be a player in the class with more helium than Taylor. He’s got suitors smattered across the first round. He’s so popular, in fact, teams deeper in the class have purportedly been trying to price him down the board. While that remains a possibility, we have the Royals jumping at the hyper-athletic prep centerfielder here. Kumar Rocker is the popular option here, and he certainly fits the Royals past models. Colton Cowser and Sal Frelick are said to have been scouted pretty hard by KC as well. This may be where the Brady House conversation starts.
8. Colorado Rockies
Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow
In 2020, the Rockies lucked out by seeing Zac Veen fall into their laps. Enter 2021 and Colorado may once again end up with the most famous prep on the board. The Rockies are turning the page into a new era for the team and are likely on the precipice of a fresh reset. House is a physical player to build around. This sort of profile makes a lot of sense here. Rocker makes some sense here, as does Benny Montgomery and Sam Bachman. This may be the ceiling for Colson Montgomery.
9. Los Angeles Angels
Benny Montgomery, OF, Red Land
The Angels are said to be enamored with Dutch Fork outfielder Will Taylor, but Montgomery does lag far behind. Built from the same cloth as a guy like Jo Adell, Montgomery is flush with tools and upside. It may be the best superstar potential in the class. In this scenario, we have the Angels going for ceiling, though they’ve been connected to several arms as well, most notably Ty Madden and Bubba Chandler. We haven’t heard whether the Angels would go for Rocker here, but it’s hard to imagine them not exploring the idea given their window.
10. New York Mets
Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt
Surely nobody saw Rocker falling this far a year ago, or even three months ago, but command concerns and fastball quality skepticism has pushed him down boards to this point. That said, Rocker fits the Mets mold in spades. A big-time college performer with a big fastball and a wipeout secondary, Rocker certainly fills a need for the Mets who lack close-to-the-big-leagues talent in upper minors rotations. The Mets have also been connected to Sam Bachman, Ty Madden, Gunnar Hoglund, Colson Montgomery and Sal Frelick as well here.
11. Washington Nationals
Ty Madden, RHP, Texas
If Mike Rizzo were to build a pitcher in a lab, he might look something like Ty Madden. A big, tall, physical, athletic righty with a big conference track record. The Nationals have gone this route over and over. In this scenario, Madden joins Cade Cavalli and Cole Henry and a peg in the Nationals future big league rotation. The team has also been heavily connected to Mississippi State righty Will Bednar, as well as Sam Bachman, Gunnar Hoglund and Kumar Rocker.
12. Seattle Mariners
Matt McLain, SS, UCLA
The Mariners have really circled bats in this class and are all over the preps selected above their pick here. Ford, plus three of the four prep shortstops are big on their board, though it appears more unlikely than not any of those players will make it to their pick. McLain not only fits a system need, but this is about where he makes sense to come off the board. Many believe he’s a future above average hitter with below average power. He’s a plus, maybe double-plus runner who will undoubtedly add value on the base paths. The jury is out on whether McLain will stick at shortstop long-term, though his skillset plays well at second base or center field. Some evaluators see a little Garrett Hampson in McLain with a slightly better hit tool. Others have mentioned David Fletcher as a comp. Sam Houston State outfielder Colton Cowser and Boston College outfielder Sal Frelick are two other bats to watch for here. Harry Ford could be a dark horse.
13. Philadelphia Phillies
Sal Frelick, Outfielder, Boston College
In a perfect world, one of Benny Montgomery or Will Taylor drop this far, but the Boston College star solidified himself as one of the best players in college baseball this season slashing .359/.443/.559. He played everyday in centerfield and showed natural instincts for the position. The Phillies may have nightmares about outfielders in the first round, but Frelick is a high floor pick with ceiling remaining. He hasn’t hit for a ton of over-the-fence power, but he rarely goes to the plate hunting, looking to work deep into counts and take what the pitcher gives him. He has the plus bat speed to go to his pull-side but is just as adept shooting the ball the other way and letting his 70-grade wheels do the work. Do the Phillies finally land their centerfielder of the future after half a decade of misses? Colson Montgomery may be a surprise here…
14. San Francisco Giants
Sam Bachman, RHP, Miami of Ohio
The Giants have had their scouting contingencies spread out all year and seemingly have a new heavy target every month. In this case, we have them landing fireballing sinker-baller Bachman with the 14th pick. We know they like Harry Ford a good bit, and Giants scouts were out in droves to see Bubba Chandler early this spring. We’ve also heard Colson Montgomery’s name pop up here as well. Jordan Wicks was connected to the Giants for a while this spring, though that traffic seems to have eased a touch.
15. Milwaukee Brewers
Will Bednar, RHP, Mississippi State
Bednar all but sealed his first round status with an incredible College World Series. He’s been mentioned as high as the Top 10, though he likely doesn’t make it much further than this. The Brewers have been connected to an assembly of arms with this pick, but Bednar’s ascent becomes to much to pass up.
16. Miami Marlins
Harry Ford, C, North Cobb
All signs point to an infatuation between Ford and the Marlins brass. They’ve been very complimentary of him in recent weeks and he certainly fits an organizational need behind the plate. Ford may not end up a backstop when all is said and done. The bat will dictate how quickly he moves. Wicks makes a lot of sense here too, as does Cowser.
17. Cincinatti Reds
Bubba Chandler, SS/RHP, North Oconee
The Reds are all over the map in this class. We could see them going any number of directions, though all signs point to the team being in a wait-and-see mode. Chandler is an explosive athlete with a bright future on the mound or at the plate. He certainly fits the mold of high-upside prep that the Reds have coveted in recent years. Colson Montgomery, as well as Nebraska two-way stud Spencer Schwellenbach may make some sense here. Any number of the players selected before this pick are on the Reds list as well.
18. St. Louis Cardinals
Gunnar Hoglund, LHP, Ole Miss
Once again, the Cardinals get the luxury of sitting back and waiting to see who falls into their lap. Hoglund is a top ten talent who’s arm injury in 2021 cost him big money and a higher draft slot. Still, he’ll be available at some point in 2022. Given his profile of command-over-stuff and SEC track record, the Cardinals are getting a starting pitcher here who should be ready to contribute to their big league rotation by 2024 at the very latest.
19. Toronto Blue Jays
Anthony Solometo, LHP, Bishop Eustace
The connection between the Jays and Solometo continues to get louder and louder. There are folks close to the prep southpaw who believe, if he makes it this far, it’s as good as gold. That said, a lot can change and there could always been surprises that fall into the lap of the Great White North. Austin Martin tumbled to Toronto in 2020. That sort of thing could happen again this year.
20. New York Yankees
Colton Cowser, Outfielder, Sam Houston State
It’s hard to envision a scenario where Cowser falls much further than this. An accomplished hitter with the ability to play multiple outfield positions, Cowser figures to be a reasonably quick mover and could see New York in 2023. The Yanks have been connected to numerous players, including Colson Montgomery, Andrew Painter, Benny Montgomery, Connor Norby, Trey Sweeney and Tyler Black.
21. Chicago Cubs
Colson Montgomery, SS, Southridge
There’s an awfully good chance Montgomery doesn’t make it this far, but should he fall to the Cubs, it’s an awfully good value. He won’t make it past 22 and their cross-town rival White Sox. The Cubs have been connected to several high school players, including Harry Ford, Lonnie White, and Andrew Painter.
22. Chicago White Sox
Maxwell Muncy, SS, Thousand Oaks
The Sox have been connected to Colson Montgomery, Will Bednar, and a number of prep bats here, but ultimately Muncy represents the best player available on their board. A twitchy middle-infielder, Muncy is a solid shortstop prospect who should also afford the Sox a haircut here.
23. Cleveland Indians
Michael McGreevy, RHP, Santa Barbara
McGreevy is a guy who’s been flying up boards of late and we think this is the floor. He’s a four-pitch command arm with as good a bet as anyone to stick in a rotation at the next level. McGreevy has some optimization in front of him, but Cleveland has a track record of guiding starters to their ceiling. Chase Petty, Peyton Stovall and Bubba Chandler have all been mentioned here.
24. Atlanta Braves
Spencer Schwellenbach, SS/RHP, Nebraska
The Braves seem to have had Schwellebach circled for a few weeks now. They may be trying to push the Cornhusker Swiss Army Knife to their pick in the second round, but we don’t think he lasts that long. The Braves get their guy here. Atlanta has also been looking long and hard at Will Taylor and Lonnie White.
25. Oakland Athletics
Jordan Wicks, LHP, Kansas State
Wicks has no business falling this far, but in this scenario he’s the odd-man out after a flurry of college arms go above him. Oakland really lucks out seeing the best lefty in the class tumble. Arguably the best changeup in the class, Wicks has four pitches is the type of college arm that could debut before any of the others in the first round, possibly as early as 2022. We’ve also heard Oakland connected to Trey Sweeney, Joe Mack and Wes Kath here, among several others.
26. Minnesota Twins
Jud Fabian, OF, Florida
Few players have overcome this level of swing and miss at the professional level. Luckily for Fabian, he has a set of supporting skills that give him a shot to project as an everyday regular. Minnesota targeted a college player with question marks late in the first last year and they do it again here. If Fabian is to land in the first round, this is a good starting point. Trey Sweeney is a name who’s received a lot of helium at this spot as well.
27. San Diego Padres
Frank Mozzicato, LHP, East Catholic
The late popping projection arm of this draft cycle. Mozzicato was way off the radar as recently as a few months ago, but the pitcher from the Connecticut prep ranks rose quickly. There have been rumors connecting San Diego to Mozzicato heavily and he seems like the kind of zag pick A.J. Preller is known for. His fastball sits high-80s to low-90s, but the jewel of his mix is a high-70s hammer curveball he uses to generate swings and misses. There’s a lot to dream on, and the signs of a go-to secondary to build around. That said, Mozzicato is getting a ton of buzz well before this pick.
28. Tampa Bay Rays
Lonnie White, Outfielder, Malvern Prep
The Rays have been connected to countless names here, and we mean countless. Our notes have Tampa being mentioned with upwards of 15 different players. In this case, we have them going with a high-upside outfielder with immense power potential.
29. Los Angeles Dodgers
Lorenzo Carrier, OF/SS, Appoquinimink
Carrier disappeared a bit following the summer of 2020, but burst onto the scene in recent months, showcasing supreme athleticism and improved bat speed at the plate. It’s a lean, strong body that projects to add more and more impact as he fills out. The Dodgers have been connected to Lonnie White as well here, and Peyton Stovall for quite some time too.
30. Cincinnati Reds
Andrew Painter, RHP, Cavalry Christian
Pretty incredible to see the value still available on the board as we work our way into Comp Round A. Painter could go as early as the front-half of the first round, so landing here in Cincy at 30 is quite a boon for the Reds. Any number of high-upside preps make sense here, depending on what route the team goes with their first pick.
31. Miami Marlins
Peyton Stovall, 2B, Haughton
Stovall’s talent is too much to pass up here for Derek Jeter, Kim Ng and the Miami Marlins. Stovall might have the best high tool in the class and projects to hit for average and some power at the next level. Depending on where the team goes with their first pick, this could end up having to be a college performer like a Connor Norby or Tyler Black.
32. Detroit Tigers
Ryan Cusick, RHP, Wake Forest
The Tigers sure haven’t been shy about drafting big conference arms in recent years and Cusick certainly fits that bill. He’s a big, tall, imposing body with upper 90s stuff and a 12-6 bender that more often than not melts into a 11-5 shape. There’s still plenty of optimization to be had in his profile. Cusick also lacks a third pitch, though he’s thrown a cutter in the past and offered a changeup at times in 2021. The latter is currently below average. There’s akin to a Tyler Glasnow in Cusick, though he’s got development in front of him in terms of command, pitch design and sequencing to reach that sort of value on the bump. Detroit would be happy to see Cusick fall this far.
33. Milwaukee Brewers
Gavin Williams, RHP, East Carolina
Williams has been mentioned as high as the top ten, so Milwaukee landing another explosive arm in Comp Round A would be quite some luck. Coupling Williams with one of Hoglund, Wicks or Bednar would make for two college arms that figure to contribute at the big league level by 2023. We’ve heard the team likes Doug Nikhazy a good bit here as well.
34. Tampa Bay Rays
Cooper Kinney, 2B, Baylor (HS)
Rays brass have been circling the wagons on Kinney of late and his name has surged in draft circles elsewhere. With their second pick in the draft, it wouldn’t surprise us to see Tampa reach for a lefty prep infielder with a big bat. He certainly fits the Rays model of recent years and he’s been surging.
35. Cincinatti Reds
Doug Nikhazy, LHP, Ole Miss
At some point, the Reds will need to balance the checkbook with a college performer and there might not be a better data-darling than Nikhazy. He’s an incredible performer and a pitcher’s pitcher. He makes a lot of sense with what the Reds are trying to achieve in-house.
36. Minnesota Twins
Jackson Merrill, SS, Saverna Park
In a perfect world, Kinney would fall to the Twins with their second pick here, but in this case he’s snagged just before they can grab him. We have the Twins landing Jackson Merrill here, mostly because they prefer to go with the bat with more power potential than positional versatility. Noah Miller, Ethan Wilson and Tyler Black all make a lot of sense here too.